One of the highlight from last month was Sun Express order for 40 737NG and MAX aircraft.
I find it interesting how LH-TK have been able to maintain the Sun Express partnership all these years especially now that Sun Express continues to grow in Germany and is truly stealing passengers from LH as it grows routes beyond its traditional Germany-Turkey focus. Even in Germany-Turkey markets XQ has stronger market share than LH in some city pairs.
Now with TK, PC and XQ having new generation planes on order, will we see anything similar from Atlasjet or Onur Air? Speaking about Onur I guess their ownership is in question with old owner back in the picture as planned buyers appear to have fallen through.
Looking ahead in 2014 and potential new TK markets, at the just posted investors update TK provided the below table with list of "planned" destinations (in red)
Some other tidbits out of the investors update:
o Turkish market accounted for 104mil travelers in 2013. Forecast to grow to 153mil by 2017. Domestic demand has been growing at 15% since 2007 and Intl demand 11%
o In 2013 24% of passengers made Intl-Intl connects on TK up from 23% in 2012. So 76% of business still remains Turkey O&D.
o Premium class clients accounted for 5% of passengers in 2013, but 20% of revenues.
They also published a fleet forecast as well.
While reading the update, I also impressed to read about all the 3rd party work being done by the various MRO affiliates of TK. For example at HABOM hangars at SAW, 92% of the revenue comes from 3rd party airlines, at the TK-Goodrich venture 64% is from other airlines, while TK Technic IST base earns 24% of its revenue from other outside sales.
Of course one of the bigger topics on A.net in February was the rumors about A380 leases at TK.
Personally I have stayed quiet on the topic as I view the talk as hot air and not serious. Sure TK looks at lots of things, including aircraft, but a company might analyze 20 potential scenarios of which none become reality at the end. Also I know the reality that TK management likes to talk, and unfortunately the media (and A.net) members take any comments they make as gospel.
On a personal note, I am aware VLA analysis done at TK in recent years, and yes there could indeed be a place for such an aircraft at TK, but its a niche need, and one that is only useful in a small subset of markets and times. But its not the most compelling business case in the grand scale of things. So yes I think TK will have a VLA one day, but its still a very costly proposition and a fleet of 330, 777s etc are much much more flexible and provide much more compelling use case at this time.
So lets get on with the discussions and see what transpires in March.