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SA7700
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What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:02 pm

As part 4 became quite long it was locked for further discussion. Please feel free to continue your discussion in this thread. Part 4 can be found here:

What's Going On In CLE - Part 4 (by iowaman Oct 20 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Enjoy the forums!

Regards,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Mon Mar 03, 2014 12:46 pm

 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:20 pm

The biggest item of interest I can find in the new Southwest schedule for CLE is the contiunuation of CLE-LAS beyond the summer schedule. The route appears to have become year-round.
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Mon Mar 03, 2014 9:43 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 1):
New entrant discussion this AM on Cleveland.com

Hmm... as a resident of Canton I love CAK and don't want to see WN shift any flights from CAK to CLE (Unlike many of the other posters on this forum). CAK has always pride itself on easy access, relaxed environment, and cheap fares. Now the UA is de-hubbing CLE and if the article is hinting more ULCC service in CLE I don't think things look too great for CAK. I don't see doom and gloom happening for my favorite little airport, but CLE will now provide cheaper fares and with less flights and less passengers a more relaxed environment (still not like CAK, but not as busy as previous years). I could see CAK losing some CLE originating passengers that may have made the drive down to CAK before if Frontier or Spirit start adding more sun destinations from CLE. That being said the folks at CAK run a pretty tight ship so I hope they are planning ahead accordingly.

-ATLFlyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:43 am

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 2):

The biggest item of interest I can find in the new Southwest schedule for CLE is the contiunuation of CLE-LAS beyond the summer schedule. The route appears to have become year-round.

Interesting. So instead of starting CLE-PHX this fall, they are just going to keep the CLE-LAS going (head to head with UA) all year. I suppose they can easily shuttle PHX bound passengers through this LAS flight.

Quoting atlflyer323 (Reply 3):
Hmm... as a resident of Canton I love CAK and don't want to see WN shift any flights from CAK to CLE (Unlike many of the other posters on this forum). CAK has always pride itself on easy access, relaxed environment, and cheap fares. Now the UA is de-hubbing CLE and if the article is hinting more ULCC service in CLE I don't think things look too great for CAK. I don't see doom and gloom happening for my favorite little airport, but CLE will now provide cheaper fares and with less flights and less passengers a more relaxed environment (still not like CAK, but not as busy as previous years). I could see CAK losing some CLE originating passengers that may have made the drive down to CAK before if Frontier or Spirit start adding more sun destinations from CLE. That being said the folks at CAK run a pretty tight ship so I hope they are planning ahead accordingly.

I don't think doom and gloom is on the horizon for CAK. CAK has branded itself as the low cost airport of NE Ohio, but I do think they'll end up losing a lot of passengers who previously drove down from Lorain/Cuyahoga/Lake Counties. We all know that CAK's explosive growth over the past decade came from discount leisure travelers looking for bargain flights. CAK will probably start to see their passenger levels return to early 2000s levels over the next few years if CLE prices drop a bit.

For example, Frontier announced year round service from CLE to MCO. That will likely siphon off those families bound to Orlando on cheap AirTran CAK flights from the Cleveland area. If you notice on today's WN announcement, CAK-MCO drops from twice daily to once daily this fall. Not sure if that's a seasonal adjustment, however I'm pretty sure CAK-MCO has been twice daily year round. Perhaps WN is factoring in lighter projected loads at CAK. WN also reduced CAK-BOS to 1x daily, this had also been 2x daily for quite some time.

CAK has fed off price conscious consumers and with WN being their major carrier now, folks in NE Ohio searching on internet sites like kayak will no longer see those fares show up when they select "show nearby airports". With once a year travelers not being very savvy or familiar with southwest, this could hurt CAK and help CLE. I have noticed that CAK has started an advertising campaign telling people that they can only find fares on southwest.com.

With that said, if F9 comes into CLE and adds a flight to TPA and FLL this fall, it will really hurt CAK. But who's to say that Spirit doesn't open up shop in CAK and bring fares lower than CLE?

CAK runs a pretty good airport and their branding/marketing are excellent. However, every time I've flown from CAK, it's been on Delta and the old terminal where the legacy carriers operate is anything but pleasant, comfortable, and relaxed.

In the end, it's sad that our two airports have to fight for the same passengers. Inevitably growth at CLE comes from CAK and vice versa. Hopefully CLE and CAK can both find their own niche and make it work. But with CAK now riding almost solely on WN, they are in the same boat as CLE was last year riding solely on UA.
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:50 am

As a Clevelander I can tell you I will stop driving down to CAK the day that CLE has competitive airfares, hate to say it because I do find CAK very pleasant. I'm sure the folks at CAK are sweating some bullets big time. UA kept fares artificially high at CLE and if that disappears then what reason do Cuyahoga county residents have to make the drive down south.

It is VERY interesting to me that WN couldn't make MDW-CAK flights work, and I'd suggest the reason is that unlike LGA or BOS, CLE already had low fares to MDW. CAK didn't add anything to the equation beyond what Clevelanders get out of CLE. If JetBlue comes to CLE that would really be a dagger to CAK.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 7:57 am

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 4):
I don't think doom and gloom is on the horizon for CAK.

I don't either. Typically low-fare carriers expand the total market; it's not zero-sum. CAK may lose some travelers to new low-fare flights at CLE, but not enough to cripple service.

[Edited 2014-03-04 00:17:55]
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:16 pm

Somewhere in the archives approximately the time that CO announced their CDG service and CLE expansion, I wrote a piece on a.net that NEOhio should close CAK and all flights should be transferred to CLE. The message was we don't have enough to support a full hub (20mm pax or so) but we could pool our resources to make CLE work and that we needed to take advantage of CO's problem with EWR congestion and their willingness to expand here. That would have added .5-.7mm pax to CLE at the time, lowered fees, etc. I got blasted for this nutty post. This was pre Skybus and pre CVG demise. The point was strengthen one airport for the region, not have two more vulnerable ones.

Now, post UA hub, would the closure of CAK (pre investment) and moving the investment in the CAK terminals and runway, along with the CAK pax to CLE have made a difference in the current CLE de-hubbed situation?
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 2:47 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 7):
Now, post UA hub, would the closure of CAK (pre investment) and moving the investment in the CAK terminals and runway, along with the CAK pax to CLE have made a difference in the current CLE de-hubbed situation?

I think the biggest thing with your suggestion is how unlikely it would ever be to happen. Why would Summit and Stark County ever agree to shut down CAK so that CLE could get a little boost in passengers? The economic gains from CAK are way more than I'm guessing you realize. For people and businesses (Yes there are businesses in Canton and Akron believe it or not) who live in Canton, Youngstown, Akron etc. you would take away our preferred airport to save an overpriced hub. If UA was just going to keep airfares artificially high like they did I don't think it would have changed anything, NE Ohio would have just been screwed even more when UA shut down the hub. On my hop up to Detroit last month I sat next to a lady who drove down from Erie, PA because of the price and convenience of CAK (her words).

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 4):
CAK runs a pretty good airport and their branding/marketing are excellent. However, every time I've flown from CAK, it's been on Delta and the old terminal where the legacy carriers operate is anything but pleasant, comfortable, and relaxed.

Yep, I do agree with this point! On the next chat with the president I want to ask if the gate expansion of the new wing is still on track. I fly Delta out of CAK almost exclusively (having just moved up here permanently from ATL I have all Delta sky miles, etc) and I agree when Delta is trying to load 2 flights and US Airways is trying to load 2 flights all at the same time (Monday mornings are the worst) the old small terminal is way overcrowded. Especially since Delta is flying all mainline to ATL from CAK now! (They still may have a few Rj flights but most of what I see is Mad Dog's) That right there shows how many passengers I think they have managed to grab. I hope that CAK will expand the new gates and move Delta flights up to those gates, or at least the Atlanta MD88 flight.

-ATLFLyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
flyinryan99
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 3:04 pm

Quoting ncflyer (Reply 5):
It is VERY interesting to me that WN couldn't make MDW-CAK flights work,

They were running 2x flights up against 5x CLE-MDW and I think there are something like 16x CLE-ORD. It doesn't make sense to run those flights to MDW. WN is better off running the 2x DEN this summer they are. I would like to see another flight to something like STL or BNA from them out of CAK, but they obviously have other fish to fry right now.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 4:49 pm

Quoting fun2fly (Reply 7):
would the closure of CAK (pre investment) and moving the investment in the CAK terminals and runway, along with the CAK pax to CLE have made a difference in the current CLE de-hubbed situation?

Total 2013 traffic for CAK was 1.7 million pax compared to CLE's 9.1 million. Obviously adding CAK traffic wouldn't have hurt, but, since CLE O&D rose very nicely over the past two years, I'm starting to think the pilot shortage at the regionals had more to do with it than I first imagined.

While the hub-closure has long in everybody's mind, the final decision came after Christmas. The pressure on UA from Wall Street was to improve operating margins; the easy way to do that was to reduce regional flying. I'm guessing things came to a head when (according to a recent report) ExpressJet told UA they didn't have enough pilots to operate their future schedules. UA needed to cut fast. A collateral benefit would be the chance to dump more 50-seaters. Cutting CLE represented a pretty tidy surgical excision. It made sense for UA, sucked for CLE.

But it's done, the axe has fallen; the suspense is over. Maybe Smisek will tell the *whole* story in his book, assuming he writes one. "From First to Worst" is so tempting a title suggestion.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:28 pm

Any thoughts on what a 2014 or 2015 passenger count total would look like at CLE?

Interestingly, I picked a few random dates this summer after the official hub closure and noticed that flights are still connecting through CLE on United. Several dates have ALB-LAX and ALB-SFO via CLE as the cheapest option. Likewise BOS-STL routings are cheapest through CLE. Any thoughts or ideas on how many PAX a de-hubbed or focus city like CLE might still connect?

[Edited 2014-03-04 09:39:11]
 
joeman
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 5:39 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 10):
Maybe Smisek will tell the *whole* story in his book, assuming he writes one. "From First to Worst" is so tempting a title suggestion.

Excellent title!!!!

Although I do believe there are too many fortress hubs, which CLE wasn't, and attention way too much attention to them by legacy carriers, the fact that CLE was CO's most profitable hub at one point, (before putting all their eggs into the basket for IAH and EWR at CLE expense) is fact a lot of a.netters can probably not fathom given their brainwashed measurements of what it takes to operate a successful hub.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:57 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 11):
Any thoughts on what a 2014 or 2015 passenger count total would look like at CLE?

UA is pulling about 200 flights a day (in + out) on the average. So 200 x 50seats x 77% load factor is 7700 pax a day reduction or about 2.8 million annualized. Since the announcement, DL has added 560 seats and Frontier 600 seats daily; so using the same calculation that adds back about 890 pax/day or 325 thousand annualized.

Note: The loss of non-stop service in a market means the market absolutely shrinks, it does not mean that all the traffic goes to connecting flights.

So with that said, and acknowledging some double counting involved, and further assuming nothing else changes from what we know today, I'd suggest a SWAG might be 9.1 minus 2.8 plus .325 giving CLE a 2014 pax count of 6.625 million of which about 5 million will be O&D.

For comparison purposes, PIT, with no hub, was about 8 million for 2013 and CVG, with what DL still calls a hub, was about 6 million.
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 05, 2014 1:50 am

Good math Massey. It may take a while, but there is no reason whatsoever that CLE's passenger count shouldn't be 100% identical to PIT. Both markets are about the same size, both are drivable to about the same number of major markets-- if anything PIT is more drivable to DC and NY (which competes with flying), and PIT doesn't really have any zany destinations that would be a stretch for CLE, save CDG.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 05, 2014 3:31 am

Correction: my SWAG of 6.625 million CLE pax for 2014 should be an annualized number, not the actual count for the year, which will reflect 5 months of higher UA passenger counts
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 05, 2014 4:32 am

Quoting MasseyBrown:
Note: The loss of non-stop service in a market means the market absolutely shrinks, it does not mean that all the traffic goes to connecting flights.

Is this because, as a result of no direct flights between two cities, some trips are not taken at all that otherwise would be? If so, what percentage of such trips are lost? And are the trips lost to trips being taken by other modes or foregone altogether?
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 05, 2014 5:10 am

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 16):
Is this because, as a result of no direct flights between two cities, some trips are not taken at all that otherwise would be? ... And are the trips lost to trips being taken by other modes or foregone altogether?

Yes. Some lost traffic might also use other means of travel, but some people will just stay home.

Quoting greenair727 (Reply 16):
If so, what percentage of such trips are lost?

That number is probably available but I don't know it. It is an accepted Dept of Transportation assumption that adding non-stop service will increase total traffic by at least 20%. So a decrease of 20% might be a reasonable number if non-stop service is lost.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Thu Mar 06, 2014 5:56 am

Effective June 16th, Air Canada (Jazz) will add a fourth CLE-YYZ trip, all Dash-8-100s.
 
greenair727
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:22 am

Not commercial, but:

FAA investigates after plane goes off Burke runway--this past Thursday night. Airport didn't close.

http://www.wkyc.com/story/news/2014/03/06/plane-off-runway/6145307/
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:39 pm

Awesome Frontier news.  

I hope the city supports them. It's a nice mix of destinations. F9 has to start slowly, i.e. less-than-daily frequencies, because of fleet and financial limitations, but they'll grow if they get support.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/03/prweb11656973.htm

[Edited 2014-03-11 08:51:37]
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 3:55 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 20):
Awesome Frontier news.

Didn't see them picking up this many locations, big deal once daily. Great CLE news. 12 destinations!
 
cle757
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:14 pm

I would expect United to only fly to the main hubs in a year or two!
Cleveland the best location in the Nation
 
oflanigan
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:44 pm

Will they take gates down on A or is this a play to get them into the B Concourse? New air service, you would hope the City would open the doors wide for Frontier.

So much for Southwest jumping at the chance to fill a void. This is what people in PIT thought would happen when US Airways left and Republic owned Frontier. Good for Cleveland.
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:58 pm

I just saw this on the CLE Instagram, very exited for CLE! I was surprised by the ATL flight, this now provides a lot of options to ATL from NE Ohio. I wonder if UA is going to stay on the route, they fly by far the smallest equipment or if we will see it dropped eventually.

I'm also kinda excited about what this could mean for WN and CAK. I'm hoping WN won't want to fight Frontier too much and CLE and will decide to keep their sizable operations in CAK where they won't face ULCC competition.   Here's to hoping! Haha

-ATLFlyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:06 pm

Quoting oflanigan (Reply 23):
So much for Southwest jumping at the chance to fill a void. This is what people in PIT thought would happen when US Airways left and Republic owned Frontier. Good for Cleveland.

I think Frontier finds CLE more immediately useful than any other airline does at the moment. They are small and struggling with one hub (DEN) in which they rank third, despite great hometown affection for them. CLE, with meaningful O&D and immediately available airport space seems like a natural fit for operational system-balancing reasons and a quick shot of profitable revenue.

There were rumblings of WN and B6 having thoughts about selective additions to CLE; so F9 probably felt they had to move quickly; but we should look for gradual growth, since they currently have no planes on order and don't want to prune DEN too heavily.

With the right response from CLE flyers, however, F9 could dip into the used A320 market for more lift. We'll see.

The downside to a big F9 operation would be no first class and no possibility of TATL.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:06 pm

Look at the new F9 flights from CLE, now look at WN's destination list from CAK. With F9's competitive pricing, this should stop the bleed of CLE area passengers driving down to CAK to catch a cheap tourist flight.
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 5:19 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 25):
The downside to a big F9 operation would be no first class and no possibility of TATL.

I don't really think there is much of a possibility for a TATL flight from CLE right now anyways, sadly.

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 26):
Look at the new F9 flights from CLE, now look at WN's destination list from CAK. With F9's competitive pricing, this should stop the bleed of CLE area passengers driving down to CAK to catch a cheap tourist flight.

Yep, as long as CLE and Frontier can do a good job advertising the service and letting people know it's out there.

I would love if WN would pull out of CLE and shift all their service to CAK, but I know that is a very slim chance. Then again anything could happen!     

On a side note I'm actually flying on Southwest for the first time this week CAK-ATL-CAK, usually I fly DL. I'm excited!

-ATLFlyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:10 pm

Quoting atlflyer323 (Reply 27):
I don't really think there is much of a possibility for a TATL flight from CLE right now anyways, sadly.

We are always optimistic, atlflyer.  
 
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mariner
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:58 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 25):
There were rumblings of WN and B6 having thoughts about selective additions to CLE; so F9 probably felt they had to move quickly; but we should look for gradual growth, since they currently have no planes on order and don't want to prune DEN too heavily.

Actually, Frontier has 80 aircraft on order - 60 x A32Neo and 20 x A319Neo (although the balance of that may change in favour of the A320Neo) - with delivery due to start at the end of next year.

Everything they are doing is with that in mind.

They also have another A320 coming into the fleet next month (used, from Star Flyer, Japan), and I believe a couple more (used) at some point after summer.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 25):
With the right response from CLE flyers, however, F9 could dip into the used A320 market for more lift. We'll see.

The point I made in the Frontier thread is that CLE-MCO already jumps from 4 x weekly to 6 x weekly when service starts.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
ncflyer
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:12 am

This is exactly why CLE will be better off without a hub, in spite of the ridiculous advertising campaign by the Cleveland Growth Association "UNITED FOR THE HUB". We're losing a crappy airline and we're gaining one that prices to grow the market, not to squash it. Cleveland flyers will no longer have to pay an airfare tax to keep the UA ERJ's flying from CLE to Madison, Richmond, GSP, etc. We will no longer have to drive to DTW or PIT for decent fares . For frontier to be adding these destinations so quickly--- absolutely fabulous. I know it's only a few flights but it's dipping the toe in the water--- IMMEDIATELY.
 
Flytravel
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:37 am

Although the CLE-TTN schedule increases from 2x to 4-5x weekly, it loses the Sunday service. With these new CLE additions and both CLE and TTN as focuses, I hope CLE-TTN is made daily or atleast 6x weekly with Sunday kept in the Summer and after.
 
fun2fly
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:00 pm

It's interesting that Frontier will have 12 destinations and UA 20. Once Frontier gets a/c to go daily, seems plausible that they could challenge UA in 2-3 years for the # of destinations.

The two markets I still see a great opportunity on are LAX via AA/DL/WN direct service as it seems there is room with UA's cuts and SLC via DL for western connections.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:16 pm

I still think DL has more announcements for CLE. I was just browsing the summer schedules on the Delta website and noticed that the last flight of the night from DTW to CLE is a CR900. Yet, I don't see that aircraft returning to DTW the next day. A quick glance doesn't show any aircraft of that type heading to MSP or LGA either. Am I just overlooking something or can we expect new destinations/upgauging from DL in CLE soon?
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 12:40 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 33):
Am I just overlooking something or can we expect new destinations/upgauging from DL in CLE soon?

Could that be for one of their new routes to IND, RDU, or BDL? I believe I read that at least one of those will be a CRJ-900 flight and both Endeavor Air and Express Jet operate the type.

-ATLFlyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 2:42 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 33):
Am I just overlooking something or can we expect new destinations/upgauging from DL in CLE soon?

There's a CR7 that apparently sits all day in CLE also; that made me wonder about another flight or two. A DL-knowledgable poster has cautioned, however, that equipment type is pretty fluid in DL's schedules until 60 days or so prior to actual flying. We'll see.

If DL has more tricks up its sleeve, there are some 100+ pax per day markets empty or soon to be. DL could choose from MCI, MSY, AUS, SAT, PVD, SAN, PDX, and SLC (almost). (These markets could be equally appealing to F9.)

I can imagine why a DTW-protective DL would not want CLE becoming an F9 hotbed, but what are they willing to do about it?

Gotta say this speculation is more interesting than wondering if UA would add or subtract a couple of E-135's each season.  

[Edited 2014-03-12 08:00:59]
 
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mbm3
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:13 pm

I remain ever so optimistic for B6 to announce BOS and FLL and curious as to whether VX might consider DAL, SFO & LGA.
Let Me Tell You, Landing A 772ER Is Harder Than It Looks!
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:40 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 35):
There's a CR7 that apparently sits all day in CLE also; that made me wonder about another flight or two. A DL-knowledgable poster has cautioned, however, that equipment type is pretty fluid in DL's schedules until 60 days or so prior to actual flying. We'll see.

If DL has more tricks up its sleeve, there are some 100+ pax per day markets empty or soon to be. DL could choose from MCI, MSY, AUS, SAT, PVD, SAN, PDX, and SLC (almost). (These markets could be equally appealing to F9.)

I can imagine why a DTW-protective DL would not want CLE becoming an F9 hotbed, but what are they willing to do about it?

Gotta say this speculation is more interesting than wondering if UA would add or subtract a couple of E-135's each season.  

Good to know.

I'd say if DL really wanted to grab some of the CLE market, they'd have at least a 1x daily 717 to MSP and LGA.

With F9's willingness to try major markets 3-4x weekly from CLE, I also agree any of the markets you've listed are fair game for them to snatch up over the next year. With the right pricing, F9 could easily fill those planes with passengers coming from the TOL, PIT, ERI, or even CMH areas, especially for flights to the west coast. There is no non-stop year round service to Seattle from CLE, PIT, or CMH. But with AS/DL's aggressive SEA additions, that may change. I could also see a seasonal 3x weekly to PDX do well from CLE (UA had it daily last summer).

I think it will be interesting to see UA's response to F9's Florida routes. The Florida routes are pretty much the only mainline flights that will be left from UA that don't go to another hub (plus LAS). As for UA's other non hub routes from CLE, most are ripe for the picking from another carrier.

STL could easily go to WN
LAS becomes all WN
BWI already has enough frequency on WN
BOS could easily go to DL/WN/B6
DFW drops and AA maintains their frequency as is
DCA and LGA - I'd say these would be the last non-hub destinations UA would want to drop
MKE and ALB - not sure if anyone would pick these up

It's quite possible that by the time WN decides to do anything more with CLE, F9 already has a respectable operation going. It seems like WN is trying to focus on connecting key business markets now, I'm not sure how well their CAK-RSW/MCO/TPA flights will fit that model. And with F9 now offering those flights from CLE, what kinds of loads will WN have in CAK?
 
point2point
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:59 pm

Quoting mariner (Reply 29):
Quoting ncflyer (Reply 30):
Quoting Flytravel (Reply 31):
Quoting fun2fly (Reply 32):
Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 33):
Quoting atlflyer323 (Reply 34):
Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 35):
Quoting mbm3 (Reply 36):
Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 37):

IIRC, CLE pax are some 72% O&D, so the premium pax are there. And now that UA has finally made its decision and gotten off the can here, it seems CLE (probably more than any other of the de-hubbed airports of PIT, STL, MKE, etc.) has received a lot of early attention, and is probably going to actually grow in pax numbers now that some competition is in the market and fares will be lower.

It is still early, but these indications are that CLE is probably going to be better off Not being a UA Hub......

And with this, I would think that DL is probably now leaning very strongly to not dehubbing CVG, no matter what amount of flights or destinations that they have there......

 
 
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mariner
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:07 pm

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 37):
I think it will be interesting to see UA's response to F9's Florida routes.

These days, United and Frontier seem to coexist quite well on any number of routes out of DEN - SBA, FAT, EUG, BZN, MOT, BIS, FAR, MSN, ANC, FAI - the are more.

The theory is that low fares stimulate the market - a rising tee lifts all boats - and that surely happened at, say, MSN.

It will be interesting to see what happens when Southwest restarts seasonal CLE-MCO, but these days, Frontier generally has lower fares than Southwest.

I'm really surprised that Frontier has CLE-PHX on its own-some, at least for now, and I also wonder if Frontier will be inclined to start CLE-LAS.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Thu Mar 13, 2014 6:11 am

Quoting mariner (Reply 39):
It will be interesting to see what happens when Southwest restarts seasonal CLE-MCO, but these days, Frontier generally has lower fares than Southwest.

This winter WN is flying CLE-MCO and CLE-RSW once a week on Saturdays. I doubt they care about CLE-Florida on a daily basis and with F9 in the mix I wouldn't bet on them returning next winter. WN's interest in CLE peaked in the late 90's.

OTOH, WN has made CLE-LAS daily year round in reaction to UA's reduction of service from three or four dailies to one. Would they stay on that route if faced with a low-fare carrier competing? Probably not. I think they are trying to bulk up their hubs in preparation for intercontinental flying in a few years.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:27 pm

Mideast Jet N777AS (B772) is due in from SNN around 3:30PM today. Another medical mission.
 
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n797mx
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sat Mar 15, 2014 7:40 pm

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 41):
Mideast Jet N777AS (B772) is due in from SNN around 3:30PM today. Another medical mission.

Any idea when it will leave? I can't get up there right now.
Clear skies and strong tail winds.
 
masseybrown
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sat Mar 15, 2014 8:09 pm

It's scheduled to depart for JFK at 1924 this evening.
 
Flytravel
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:17 am

Quoting atlflyer323 (Reply 27):
I would love if WN would pull out of CLE and shift all their service to CAK, but I know that is a very slim chance. Then again anything could happen!

I wouldn't say it's so slim. The precedent is just on the other side of the state, where WN chose to keep FL's routes in DAY but not move to CVG.

The latest release has some increases at CLE, but WN will be needing aircraft to fund DAL, DCA, LGA and stations like HOU and other strategic stations for them like BNA and other hubs. I think CLE falls in the category of markets like PIT and PHL to WN, over the first category.

I'd bet on the CLE-MDW route also that WN is pushing a lot of connecting pax, probably way too high than what it ideally wants for a route, not be different than past deleted routes LGA/EWR-BWI, MDW-IND, etc. even though CLE-MDW is longer. From my experiences in Chicago, many of the frequent fliers on business would choose UA esp. on frequency driven routes so I'm not certain WN is leading for the desired pax on CHI-Cleveland.

It could easily move CLE-BWI to CAK, LAS and BNA over, maybe add HOU, and maybe have a light MDW schedule (2-3x) from CAK again. If this were to happen, that is a move from CLE to CAK, F9 would launch CLE-BNA, LAS and BWI but no more than 1x daily and AA and UA would charge a premium for pax to fly CLE to Chicago, but UA would probably end it's services out of CAK, and WN would enjoy more control over at CAK. I think DL will be bullish though and not give over ATL to WN so WN will still be competing against DL on that route.

[Edited 2014-03-15 18:18:39]
 
ATLFlyer323
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:43 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 44):
I think DL will be bullish though and not give over ATL to WN so WN will still be competing against DL on that route.

That's the route I fly the most, and the competition between DL and WN/FL over the years has been great for the traveler! DL has even upped their flights to MD88's over CRJ7's/9's. I've loved it!

That being said DL really needs to fix their CAK-DTW flight on Endeavor Air. Every time I've flown the route it's been delayed, I missed to my connection in DTW to Japan last time because of it. When I flew out of CAK on Thursday the 12 something flight was delayed til after 2pm.

-ATLFlyer323
Everyday, the fluffy temptation of wheat!
 
PITrules
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:10 am

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 44):
I wouldn't say it's so slim. The precedent is just on the other side of the state, where WN chose to keep FL's routes in DAY but not move to CVG.

I wouldn't consider that precedent because neither WN nor FL served CVG.
FLYi
 
Flytravel
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:01 pm

Quoting PITrules (Reply 46):
I wouldn't consider that precedent because neither WN nor FL served CVG.

WN could have moved the route BWI-DAY route to BWI-CVG. But it instead chose to just convert the DAY station to a WN station and make Baltimoreans have to use DAY for Cincinnati. It's website even associates DAY as Cincinnati area airports. With DAL, HOU, DCA and LGA, and international, it might not be rushing to do anything at CVG.
 
lakeeffect
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:04 pm

Quoting PITrules (Reply 46):
I wouldn't consider that precedent because neither WN nor FL served CVG.

I would agree. WN is CLE's second largest carrier with a little over 900k PAX per year. Last year WN carried 0 PAX from CVG. There is no precedent or comparison.

Even combining FL and WN PAX at CAK right now you get a little over 900k PAX per year. So both airports are about the same. If you move too many flights around quickly, you run the risk of losing passengers who won't switch airports or find the added drive time isn't worth such a short flight.

Quoting Flytravel (Reply 44):
I'd bet on the CLE-MDW route also that WN is pushing a lot of connecting pax, probably way too high than what it ideally wants for a route, not be different than past deleted routes LGA/EWR-BWI, MDW-IND, etc. even though CLE-MDW is longer. From my experiences in Chicago, many of the frequent fliers on business would choose UA esp. on frequency driven routes so I'm not certain WN is leading for the desired pax on CHI-Cleveland.

It could easily move CLE-BWI to CAK, LAS and BNA over, maybe add HOU, and maybe have a light MDW schedule (2-3x) from CAK again. If this were to happen, that is a move from CLE to CAK, F9 would launch CLE-BNA, LAS and BWI but no more than 1x daily and AA and UA would charge a premium for pax to fly CLE to Chicago, but UA would probably end it's services out of CAK, and WN would enjoy more control over at CAK. I think DL will be bullish though and not give over ATL to WN so WN will still be competing against DL on that route.

With Chicago being the number one O&D market from CLE, why would WN move those flights to CAK, a route they tried last year that didn't work? Likewise for BWI, WN pretty much has 90%+ of the seats on the CLE-BWI route, with UA having a token few turbo props daily, it wouldn't make sense either to move those to CAK, especially if the intent is to be the sole carrier on BWI-CLE.

With the DCA/BWI and ORD/MDW markets being popular destinations from CLE that are relatively short drives, it's not as if PAX are going to follow those flights to CAK with open arms. People will be much less inclined to drive an hour to CAK to catch such a short flight.

With WN's next schedule extension being fall, I doubt we see much change at CAK/CLE. By the time next summer's schedule comes out, the dust will have settled from UA's pulldown and we'll probably have a much clearer picture of what demand exists (and how well F9 has done). If F9 proves to be successful this year, why would WN decrease CLE and build up CAK? That would essentially give F9 even more room to grow and make WN hurt even more at CAK, where they would have even less region wide PAX to draw from.
 
michman
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RE: What's Going On In CLE - Part 5

Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:14 pm

Quoting ATLFlyer323 (Reply 45):
When I flew out of CAK on Thursday the 12 something flight was delayed til after 2pm.


I suspect they were still recovering from the weather mess on Wednesday.

[Edited 2014-03-16 06:18:25]
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