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SA7700
Topic Author
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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:26 am

Due to length part 24 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 25.

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B777-200ER missing enroute KUL-PEK (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysian Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines 772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)



**** SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER: rcair1 (Post 77 from thread 23) ****

First - synopsis
- The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing

- The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. This does not mean ACARS was shut off - just that was the last transmission of ACARS data (See ACARS below)

- The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local

- It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.

- The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.

- There are some reports of a descent and turn based on primary radar. The descent was on the order of 3000 ft to 29,500.

- There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight.

- Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - we do not know that it is the accident a/c.

- We STILL do not know if it was a track (multiple returns) or a few points returns.

- We have 'reports' of SATCOM system pings for some hours after LOS (loss of signal)

- There is confusion (and argument) about the content of those pings and if those pings can provide location information (See SATCOM below)

- We have no ELT signal detected.


ACARS
- ACARS is an automated aircraft health management system that transmits a/c maintenance information to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.

- ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight - it is a maintenance system

- ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.

- ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.


ACARS data from MH370
- MH370 sent 2 ACARS (or rather Engine Health) reports to Rolls Royce. The last was approximately 1:07

- Rolls Royce's would have expected only 1 more transmission at landing - that was never received.

- NOTE: this fact is in dispute - some reports say a transmission every 20 minutes or so was expected - however I believe that to be incorrect.

- The fact that the last ACARS was sent some time before the transponder signal was loss does not mean ACARS was turned off at that time. ACARS transmissions on this ship are not continuous


SATCOM
- SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.

- SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.

- The last communication via SATCOM was the last ACARS message at 1:07


SATCOM Pings.
- The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here." They are often called "keep alive" signals.

- SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.

- There are reports that SATCOM pings were heard for up to 4 or 5 hours into flight (or after LOS)

- NOTE: to those complaining it took to long to report this - remember the SATCOM pings are deep in the communications protocol and not what people would normally look at. How often do you look at the basic network traffic on your router?

- There is speculation that the SATCOM pings contain altitude, heading, speed. From a communications standpoint that does not make sense.

- I believe what is really happening is that experts in this system are trying to derive some location, speed, etc. information from the nature of the pings For instance, what satellites did they hit, when and how strong. Much like GPS, you may be able to derive information about location.


Way-point Tracks:
- There are reports and maps today of a track following way-points.

- The source (Radar? Satcom? Visual?) and veracity of this information is not confirmed.

- At this point I cannot state any factual data related other than it is being discussed in the press


Airworthiness Directive
- The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.

- The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna


Search Areas Based on this information - authorities are searching:
- Along the planed route

- West over the Malacca straight

- North west of Malacca straight

- Near the islands of Andaman and Nicobar. Indian a/c report nothing found in this area.

- Unconfirmed: in the Indian Ocean. Initial reports were the US was sending the KIDD there, but I believe those were wrong


Conspiracy Theories:
- There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.

- We have no data to support any of them.

- The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the 'government is hiding it' aspects

- It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.


Mobile phones
- We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.

- We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.


We have lots of complaints about incompetence.
- I've been in and in command of large emergencies and been the one responsible to communicate to large groups.

- Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result.

- Complaints continue and will despite what any authority does till something happens.


We have had a lot of "false" sightings. I can not keep up.
- This is common and we need to investigate the credible ones. Most will be false.

- The Chinese Satellite data has not resulted in any findings.

- Indian aircraft have searched (some) near Andaman and Nicobar and nothing found


----------------------
In summary
We KNOW 4 things.
- The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.

- There is some evidence that it traveled west. But that evidence is not conclusive or sure.

- We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

- We have a better idea were it is NOT

**** SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER: rcair1 (Post 77 from thread 23) ****


Malaysian official says missing plane hijacked

Missing Malaysia plane MH370 said to be traced to sea off Australia




A REMINDER TO ALL OUR MEMBERS:


**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** Please do not repeat questions and scenarios that were covered and discussed in previous threads and which do not contribute in a constructive manner towards the real topic any longer. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

**** PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL TOWARDS OTHER USERS AND KEEP THE FORUM RULES AND REGULATIONS IN MIND WHEN POSTING IN THE FORUMS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY RULE VIOLATIONS, PLEASE BRING THIS TO THE ATTENTION OF THE MODERATORS BY MAKING USE OF THE “SUGGEST DELETION FUNCTION”. ****

**** WHEN STATING FACTS, STATISTICS OR NEWSWORTHY BULLETINS, PLEASE BE SURE TO INCLUDE AN HTML LINK OR REFERENCE TO A PUBLICATION. IF YOU ARE MERELY PROVIDING AN OPINION, PLEASE MENTION THIS IN YOUR POST. ALL MEMBERS ARE RESPONSIBLE TO AVOID ARGUMENTS BASED ON RUMORS OR MISINFORMATION




Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

[Edited 2014-03-15 03:27:59]
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
murchmo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:35 am

http://seattletimes.com/html/nationw...d/2023125752_apxmalaysiaplane.html

"A Malaysian investigation into the missing flight 370 has concluded that one or more people with flying experience switched off communications devices and deliberately steered the airliner off-course, a Malaysian government official involved in the investigation said Saturday."
to strive to seek to find and not to yield
 
Ryefly
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:40 am

Regarding a popular theory of terrorist activity, here are some observations and questions I have...

If the goal was to take a 777, what would the terrorist see in this particular flight to know in advance this flight is their best option over any other 777 flight?

Most obvious answer is because it's one of the pilots that highjacked the plane. But what if it wasn't the pilots...

- Time of day (cover of darkness)
- Location of departure in range of where they wanted to take the plane
- They knew the airspace
- They knew a weakness in Malaysia Airlines
- They knew they could get a weapon past security in KLIA to take over the plane similar to 9/11
- Perhaps they knew the crew previously - access to cockpit.
- Member of the crew such as Flight attendant, or employee of the airline.

We know 9/11 terrorist performed dry runs before that terrible day. Perhaps terrorist onboard have previously flown this flight before as a dry run? A check of the passenger manifest against any other previous flights any of the passengers took could answer this.? Especially previous 777 flights.
 
spacecadet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:43 am

Reuters live stream is showing the press conference: http://www.livestation.com/en/reuters
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
imagoagnitio
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:44 am

OK, so if the 'highjackers' have taken the plane for a future purpose, what is coming up in the next 6 months or so
of 'world-wide' importance that they would want to use a 777 flying bomb for?

What would be within range of this loaded 777?

World Cup in Brazil? it would be easier to highjack a South American plane due to distance?

G20 Summit, Brisbane, November 15th & 16th.
 
freakyrat
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:45 am

What about the theory of a cargo fire such as from lithium batteries. We all know what happened to two UPS freighter jets because of this.
 
4holer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:48 am

Several threads ago, I wrote my theory about pilot suicide and how people who take their own life often counter the self preservation instinct by doing something that doesn't directly kill them, but puts them in a situation that even if they change their minds and want to live, they cannot survive, like suicide by cop, jumping off a bridge, or maybe flying an airplane beyond its ability to get back to a runway.
Nothing since then has made this scenario less plausible.
Ghosts appear and fade away.....................
 
BoeingVista
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:50 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 5):
Reuters live stream is showing the press conference: http://www.livestation.com/en/reuters

Time for the theory of the day then.

I understand the Prime Minister will be holding this press confrence so the press would be expected to be more respectful than of late.
BV
 
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zeke
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:53 am

Quoting murchmo (Reply 4):

- ACARS is an automated aircraft health management system that transmits a/c maintenance information to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.

ACARS is not a health management system, that is the CMC on the 777. ACARS is a communications network run by SITA that aircraft connect to via radio or satellite, the aircraft has a ACARS management unit which connects various avionics to the ground ACARS network. Airlines and OEMs have ground based links to this network to upload and receive data.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:53 am

Also in terms of the ACARS being shut off I haven't read anything to say why they know it was deliberately shut off before the transponder (One of the main reasons in the news as to why it is a hijacking) when at most it transmits once every 20 minutes and I do in fact believe rcair1 recap on the ACARS not regularly transmitting is correct. Not to mention how does the engine send data after the point when they turn off and send insane data. (The two stories the news are running don't make sense and are in contradiction of each other or are very poorly worded)
 
gregorous
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:53 am

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 6):
Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 6):
OK, so if the 'highjackers' have taken the plane for a future purpose, what is coming up in the next 6 months or so
of 'world-wide' importance that they would want to use a 777 flying bomb for?

What would be within range of this loaded 777?

World Cup in Brazil? it would be easier to highjack a South American plane due to distance?

G20 Summit, Brisbane, November 15th & 16th.

The Nuclear Security Summit is March 24–25, 2014 in the Netherlands at The Hague.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Security_Summit
 
fooflyboy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:55 am

_begin speculation_

It may be a hijacking, but not a botched one.

I've seen posts asking questions like "Why would a hijacker do this?", "For what purpose?", "Where are their demands?", etc. First of all, that's mostly 20th Century thinking. Terrorists these days just blow people up. They don't have "demands" - just a mission to kill and wreak havoc.

Think back to 911. What the terrorists accomplished on that day is obvious on the surface. But in addition to the destruction and lives lost, they also managed to cripple our civilian aviation. All flights were grounded until security measures could be put into place to prevent that sort of thing from happening again.

Of course planes began flying again, but at a high cost - in the form of new on-going increased security, and a whole new government department being formed (Homeland Security). Somewhere I believe I remember reading some alqaeda person as gloating about how they will now hopefully bankrupt the US economy.

These terrorists are evil, certainly. But they are not necessarily stupid. You can be sure they have been studying long and hard to find ways to wreak havoc with commercial flights since 911. These guys are patient and dedicated. It's their life. So they watch. And do their research. They find a weakness. A way into the cockpit (what good is a locked door anyway if you're going to open it for lavatory breaks and meals??). Plus they find a crew member who likes to show off and is liberal with the rules to boot. It may even have been decided that the lead hijacker needed to be an attractive female.

So their plan was to make an airliner disappear into thin air. They very nearly did it. By downing the plane where they did, it makes it extremely hard to find. Even if you figure out where, the water depth is so extreme that recovery is extremely difficult. And even if you manage to do that, they have out-flown the CVR and FDR so you find nothing of any use. Message from the terrorists: "We are smarter than you.".

So let's say that this is what happened. We're all stumped and mystified. Scratching our heads. Thinking that this event is a "one-off". (I really do hope that it is)

But... what happens if another plane "vanishes". (This time they would be sure not to overlook power to the satcom) If this other shoe were to drop, imagine what the ramifications would be.

It could cripple the passenger airline industry globally. Airlines would stop flying until it was determined what was happening and measures were taken. Now that would be something I could see some terror organization striving for. They could literally bring the world to its knees.

_end speculation_

[Edited 2014-03-14 22:58:11]

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:01:08]
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:55 am

they are setting up the press conference now.. just announced, NO QUESTIONS, a bit of a gasp from the press.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:56 am

Quoting freakyrat (Reply 7):
What about the theory of a cargo fire such as from lithium batteries. We all know what happened to two UPS freighter jets because of this.

Maybe this?:

Quoting murchmo (Reply 1):
http://seattletimes.com/html/nationw...d/2023125752_apxmalaysiaplane.html

"A Malaysian investigation into the missing flight 370 has concluded that one or more people with flying experience switched off communications devices and deliberately steered the airliner off-course, a Malaysian government official involved in the investigation said Saturday."

It would seem - at the moment at least - that the people "in the know" have concluded some sort of nefarious intervention in the flight took place. It's up to you of course but I'd personally hope that thread #25 (!) should finally start focusing on this specific preliminary conclusion. It'd be nice to narrow things down a bit so that we can stop repeating the same theories that have been listed ad nauseum in threads 1-24. (This isn't meant to be rude to you personally. I'm just personally exhausted trying to stay current in these threads and the repetitive 'what about XYZ?' merry-go-round needs to stop at some point).

-Dave
-Dave
 
BoeingVista
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:57 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 12):
They are setting up the press conference now.. just announced, NO QUESTIONS, a bit of a gasp from the press.

Not a great start, but most likley related to the PM being present.
BV
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:58 am

Quoting imagoagnitio (Reply 6):

OK, so if the 'highjackers' have taken the plane for a future purpose, what is coming up in the next 6 months or so
of 'world-wide' importance that they would want to use a 777 flying bomb for?

I think it was more likely meant for an immediate purpose, and not future. Maybe the Petronas Towers, and they simply couldn't locate them or KL at night from up high.... So they gave up trying. Still a lot of fuel on plane... a bit after departure, take plane, turn around...copying 9/11... just not aware of how hard it is to find something at 500 mph at night. Just a guess though based on what I'm reading here.

[Edited 2014-03-14 22:59:30]

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:00:43]
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 5:59 am

Quoting chaseus1 (Reply 15):
I think it was more likely meant meant for an immediate purpose, and not future. Maybe the Petronas Towers, and they simply couldn't locate them or KL at night from up high.... So they gave up trying. Still a lot of fuel on plane... copying 9/11... just not aware of how hard it is to find something at 500 mph at night. Just a guess though based on what I'm reading here.

highly unlikely that someone with the expertise to pilot a 777 wouldn't be able to navigate it. You could carry on a portable GPS from a car and it would be enough to get you there, easily.
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:01 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 16):
Quoting nm2582 (Reply 16):
highly unlikely that someone with the expertise to pilot a 777 wouldn't be able to navigate it. You could carry on a portable GPS from a car and it would be enough to get you there, easily.

Unless there was a fight in the cockpit....
 
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clickhappy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:02 am

Was there enough fuel on board to have flown to Diego Garcia?
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:02 am

Quoting chaseus1 (Reply 15):
I think it was more likely meant meant for an immediate purpose, and not future. Maybe the Petronas Towers, and they simply couldn't locate them or KL at night from up high.... So they gave up trying. Still a lot of fuel on plane... copying 9/11... just not aware of how hard it is to find something at 500 mph at night. Just a guess though based on what I'm reading here.

question is who is they? Those 2 Iranian kids? Who else could it have been?
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:03 am

Quoting gregorous (Reply 10):
The Nuclear Security Summit is March 24–25, 2014 in the Netherlands at The Hague.

That would be....awkward.

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 11):
So their plan was to make an airliner disappear into thin air. They very nearly did it. By downing the plane where they did, it makes it extremely hard to find.

I read your whole theory. I just think FAR more damage would be done by either using the aircraft as an immediate weapon (i.e. Petronis Towers) or as a weapon delivery vehicle (i.e. dirty bomb). The latter, in particular, would do unbelievable harm to the world economy. Certainly, of all scenarios, that is the one that has gotten my attention throughout the past few days. Frankly, it'd be a relief if the alternative was that the plane is deep underwater somewhere rather than a potential "any moment" attack on a world city or religious center.

-Dave
-Dave
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:05 am

Quoting CaliAtenza (Reply 19):
question is who is they? Those 2 Iranian kids? Who else could it have been?


Were any Uyghurs on board?

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:06:12]

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:07:22]
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:07 am

I don't have any clue who... not even thinking of them really.. just someone or a couple or a few.

Also, car GPS can be entertaining to watch at 500 mph... may not have been easy to follow if not set to the correct zoom and everything ahead of time.

I just realize there are some similarities to 9/11 in the timing of taking over the plane, turning around, and still having a lot of fuel.

I also see nothing relating to Petronas Towers, except maybe copying 9/11.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:11 am

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 21):
Were any Uyghurs on board?

Passenger #84?

-Dave
-Dave
 
socalgeo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:12 am

Quoting clickhappy (Reply 18):
Was there enough fuel on board to have flown to Diego Garcia?

I asked this in an earlier thread page. The answer came back that the normal fuel load would be the distance from KUL-PEK plus reserves. KUL-PEK is roughly
2700 miles, plus reserves, while no one has been able to tell us (unless I missed it) lets assume 3200 miles of range total.
Seem generous to me.

The flight path from KUL to the IGREX waypoint is roughly 1100 miles, leaving 2100 -2200 miles left. the red circle in the map below is a 2200 mile buffer on the IGREX waypoint.




If my numbers are correct, I doubt that they make it to Australia... Diego Garcia, possibly...

Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934

SoCalGeo

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:13:13]
 
KDTWflyer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:13 am

I read through the last giant thread and didn't see any mention of exactly what type of Inmarsat technology is in place here. Looking on their wiki it looks like a likely candidate could be their SwiftBroadband (SB) - BGAN-based product but I'm not sure so I'd be curious to see what others think it may be. I wonder what typical ping latency would be given it is a satellite to mobile application. Given that the Inmarsat-4 F3 is in a geosynchronous orbit, I'd imagine the latency is probably pretty high but maybe there is enough resolution to extrapolate some positional information, who knows. Or do MH B772s utilize the Aeronautical (Classic Aero) product line of Inmarsat comms?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SwiftBroadband

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inmarsat
NW B744 B742 B753 B752 A333 A332 A320 A319 DC10 DC9 ARJ CRJ S340
 
koruman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:15 am

Now that the Malaysian government has settled upon hijacking, these appear to be the options:

1) Hijacking by one or more members of the crew, for the purpose of suicide or assassination of passengers.

2) Hijacking as an act of hostility towards the communist government of the People's Republic of China, possibly by Uighur separatists.

3) Hijacking as an act of hostility towards the government of Malaysia, on the day after the main opposition politician was imprisoned after being convicted of "sodomy".

4) Hijacking as a terrorist act aimed at the major US bases on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.

5) Hijacking aimed at the military junta which has dominated Burma (Myanmar) for decades, with the possible aim of exposing the base secretly leased to China on Burma's Great Coco Island.

6) A government-sponsored mission aimed at testing the air defences of either Great Coco Island or Diego Garcia, rather like the rumours that have never disappeared about Korean flight 007 and South African flight 295.
 
airlanka
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:17 am

Malaysian government now denied it is hijacked… this is now farcical…. Didn't I expect this before ??

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/missing-mal...cked-confirms-kuala-lumpur-1440405
A taste of Paradise
 
ushermittwoch
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:19 am

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but some joker in Vietnam posted this add:

http://vietnam.craigslist.org/for/4372477162.html
Where have all the tri-jets gone...
 
fooflyboy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:19 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 20):
I just think FAR more damage would be done by either using the aircraft as an immediate weapon...

You may be right.

But think for a minute. Were it not for the satcom pinging to lead investigators, we would know VERY little about this flight. We might not even be looking in the Indian Ocean, let alone find it. Vanished without a trace.

That's plenty in and of itself. But do it again with another plane - and THEN stand up and announce that you are doing it...

I think it is very fortunate that the satcom pinging was there.
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:20 am

press conference in progress, covering generalities right now/reviewing history; it feels slightly defensive of their actions thus far.

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:20:41]

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:22:17]
 
seb146
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:25 am

Quoting fooflyboy (Reply 11):
Think back to 911. What the terrorists accomplished on that day is obvious on the surface. But in addition to the destruction and lives lost, they also managed to cripple our civilian aviation.

Don't forget that 9/11 got the bin Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia closed. What is going on between Malaysia and China on that scale? Something that one country is doing to make the other country so enraged people have to hijack an airliner in the dead of night?

Completely different scenario: How does North Korea play into all of this?
Life in the wall is a drag.
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:25 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 26):

I would say that a pilot suicide (your scenario #1) is most likely. The reason why not immediately crashing the plane we cannot know, but it might be either to commit 'a perfect murdet' at the same time without leaving any evidence. However, even the very experienced pilot was not aware of the highly specific details of the SATCOM system and that information can be extracted from SATCOM pings. That info is probably not available in any pilot manuals. One other possibility is that the pilot tried to make it look like an accident, but the evidence does not support that as he made so many delibarate actions.
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:27 am

press conference points/confirmations:
high degree of certainty that acars was disabled.
transponder shut off.
malaysian radar had primary return of mh370.
aircraft movement is consistent with deliberate action of someone on plane.
raw satellite data confirms that the aircraft on malaysian primary radar was mh370
faa/ntsb/aaib/malaysian authorities all concur.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:29 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 32):
One other possibility is that the pilot tried to make it look like an accident, but the evidence does not support that as he made so many delibarate actions.

I'm still not convinced that the Captain had anything to do with it. Having said that, were I as into flying as he was, and I were going to crash my plane, I'd sure as heck first want to have as much fun as possible until out of fuel. Like...go up to 45,000, make some crazy dives and climbs, cruise as fast as possible, etc. Might as well have some fun until the party is over, which would appear to have been somewhere over the Indian Ocean I guess.

-Dave
-Dave
 
chaseus1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:30 am

Quoting airlanka (Reply 27):
Malaysian government now denied it is hijacked… this is now farcical…. Didn't I expect this before ??

They denied that it was conclusive, but stated it is a possibility they are looking at, along with many others
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:31 am

more press conference points/confirmations:

last confirmed satellite communication at 8:11 AM malaysian time
satellite data cannot confirm precise location of plane when it contacted satellite.
malaysian authorities and internationoal counterpoints confirm that the final location CAN be narrowed down to one of two corridors:

northern corridor: border of kazakhstan/kyrgyzstan to ?? (sorry - i could not understand what he said, only certain of kazakhstan)
southern corridor from indonesia to southern indian ocean

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:32:32]

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:39:14]
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:31 am

This is what the PM is saying:

New information based on new satellite communication he says with a high degree of confirmation that ACARS was disabled just before it left Malaysia, shortly after, near the border between Malaysia and Vietnam the aircraft transponder was switched off.

Primary radar shows an aircraft, still not ID'd as MH370 but likely, returning over Malaysia and then flying north west. The flight path is consistent with deliberate actions. Based on raw satellite data obtained from Inmarsat he can confirm that the aircraft tracked on primary radar likely was MH370. After further nvestigation by the FAA, NTSB and AAIB plus Malaysian authorities, the last confirmed communication was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. (Some seven hours after the last pilot hand off at 1:07 am).

Due to the type of satellite data they are not able to confirm the precise location when it last made contact, hwoever it is determined that the last location was on one of two possible corridors. 1) Northern around Kazakhstan / Turkmenistan border or 2) from INdonesia to the Southern India ocean.

Authorities are now refocusing the investigation onto the crew and passengers. Despite reports of hijacking he says they are still investigating all possibilities.

New information has significant impact. Ops in South China Sea now ceasing. New countries asked for help around these countries.
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:31 am

more press conference points/confirmations:

he stepped back a step from the 100% confirmation of hijacking
 
dcsben
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:31 am

- confirmed deliberate action
- primary radar trace consistent with satellite data
- last confirmed communication plane to satellite 8:11am (??) Saturday 8th March local time
- unable to confirm where last communication with satellites happened
- based on new data, they have determined that the plane's last contact was in one of 2 possible corridors: northern corridor stretching approx. from border of Kazakhstan to northern Thailand OR southern corridor stretching from Indoneia to the southern Indian ocean.
- ending operations in South China Sea, assessing redeployment

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:33:27]
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:33 am

so hijacking not conclusive at all. Mechanical or other theories equally likely / unlikely.
 
spacecadet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:33 am

There was an audible gasp when he said the last signal from the plane was at 8:11AM. That's *way* later than anything we've heard before.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 40):
so hijacking not conclusive at all. Mechanical or other theories equally likely / unlikely.

That's certainly a creative interpretation. He said there's little doubt that the movement of the plane was deliberate. Also, ACARS was "switched off" *before* comms. That's significant. And the language he used was clear. It was all intentional.

[Edited 2014-03-14 23:36:11]
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
sq452
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:33 am

Press Conference highlights:
-ending search operation in the South China Sea
-Two corridors where the plane could have gone/went: they stretch from Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan border to that of Northern Thailand and the other corridor in the southern Indian Ocean
SIN > CVG > BOS
 
socalgeo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:33 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 36):
northern corridor: border of kazakhstan/kyrgyzstan to ?? (sorry - i could not understand what he said)
southern corridor from indonesia to southern indian ocean

I thought he said Kazakhstan to northern Thailand, I didn't hear the rest......wow

SoCalGeo
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:35 am

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 36):

I believe it was 8:11 a.m. for the last contact, so around 7 hours after lost contact
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:35 am

Continuing to type almost verbatim:

Nothing much more than closing words.

I typed the above almost verbatim. This is explosive news, he wasn't willing to say it was hijacked but he was quite clear it's actions were deliberate by people who knew how to operate a 777.

So if it went via the Northern Corridor as they call it, on a flight path to Europe effectively, all manner of possibilities are now scarily opening up!
 
sq452
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:36 am

Quoting spacecadet (Reply 41):

There was an audible gasp when he said the last signal from the plane was at 8:11AM. That's *way* later than anything we've heard before.

Yes, I was in shock when I heard that. That time is way later and also significantly past the scheduled arrival time of the aircraft in Beijing.
SIN > CVG > BOS
 
nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:36 am

My personal conclusion:

someone is now in possession of a flight worthy 777.
 
tortugamon
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:37 am

Quoting dcsben (Reply 39):
based on new data, they have determined that the plane's last contact was in one of 2 possible corridors: northern corridor stretching approx. from border of Kazakhstan to northern Thailand

Does anyone understand this? From my latest geography lesson that means it would be in China right? Isn't that a gigantic area to cover?

tortugamon
 
rampart
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25

Sat Mar 15, 2014 6:37 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 40):
Mechanical or other theories equally likely / unlikely.

Not as I heard it. The fligth path and actions were "deliberate", and I doubt that would indicate that a mechanical failure was as likely, particularly if the flight direction could be as far as Kazakhstan. BBC says he essentialy ruled out mechanical issues.

-Rampart
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