SA7700
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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 10:44 am

Due to length part 25 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 26.

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**** SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER: rcair1 (Post 77 from thread 23) ****

First - synopsis
- The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing

- The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. This does not mean ACARS was shut off - just that was the last transmission of ACARS data (See ACARS below)

- The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local

- It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.

- The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.

- There are some reports of a descent and turn based on primary radar. The descent was on the order of 3000 ft to 29,500.

- There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight.

- Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - we do not know that it is the accident a/c.

- We STILL do not know if it was a track (multiple returns) or a few points returns.

- We have 'reports' of SATCOM system pings for some hours after LOS (loss of signal)

- There is confusion (and argument) about the content of those pings and if those pings can provide location information (See SATCOM below)

- We have no ELT signal detected.


ACARS
- ACARS is an automated aircraft health management system that transmits a/c maintenance information to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.

- ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight - it is a maintenance system

- ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.

- ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.


ACARS data from MH370
- MH370 sent 2 ACARS (or rather Engine Health) reports to Rolls Royce. The last was approximately 1:07

- Rolls Royce's would have expected only 1 more transmission at landing - that was never received.

- NOTE: this fact is in dispute - some reports say a transmission every 20 minutes or so was expected - however I believe that to be incorrect.

- The fact that the last ACARS was sent some time before the transponder signal was loss does not mean ACARS was turned off at that time. ACARS transmissions on this ship are not continuous


SATCOM
- SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.

- SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.

- The last communication via SATCOM was the last ACARS message at 1:07


SATCOM Pings.
- The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here." They are often called "keep alive" signals.

- SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.

- There are reports that SATCOM pings were heard for up to 4 or 5 hours into flight (or after LOS)

- NOTE: to those complaining it took to long to report this - remember the SATCOM pings are deep in the communications protocol and not what people would normally look at. How often do you look at the basic network traffic on your router?

- There is speculation that the SATCOM pings contain altitude, heading, speed. From a communications standpoint that does not make sense.

- I believe what is really happening is that experts in this system are trying to derive some location, speed, etc. information from the nature of the pings For instance, what satellites did they hit, when and how strong. Much like GPS, you may be able to derive information about location.


Way-point Tracks:
- There are reports and maps today of a track following way-points.

- The source (Radar? Satcom? Visual?) and veracity of this information is not confirmed.

- At this point I cannot state any factual data related other than it is being discussed in the press


Airworthiness Directive
- The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.

- The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna


Search Areas Based on this information - authorities are searching:
- Along the planed route

- West over the Malacca straight

- North west of Malacca straight

- Near the islands of Andaman and Nicobar. Indian a/c report nothing found in this area.

- Unconfirmed: in the Indian Ocean. Initial reports were the US was sending the KIDD there, but I believe those were wrong


Conspiracy Theories:
- There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.

- We have no data to support any of them.

- The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the 'government is hiding it' aspects

- It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.


Mobile phones
- We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.

- We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.


We have lots of complaints about incompetence.
- I've been in and in command of large emergencies and been the one responsible to communicate to large groups.

- Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result.

- Complaints continue and will despite what any authority does till something happens.


We have had a lot of "false" sightings. I can not keep up.
- This is common and we need to investigate the credible ones. Most will be false.

- The Chinese Satellite data has not resulted in any findings.

- Indian aircraft have searched (some) near Andaman and Nicobar and nothing found


----------------------
In summary
We KNOW 4 things.
- The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.

- There is some evidence that it traveled west. But that evidence is not conclusive or sure.

- We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

- We have a better idea were it is NOT


**** SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER: rcair1 (Post 77 from thread 23) ****

************************************************************************************************


**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: Search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

************************************************************************************************


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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700
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tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:00 am

The inmarsat they used is the IOR 64.5 E based on the twitter image, https://twitter.com/sunshinesulin/status/444763082254868482/photo/1

And the coverage map,
http://www.voxmaris.com.ar/en/fleet77

That would put it within range of POR 178E as well which might have helped or made it even at all possible for just the last point to be roughly determined. (The other older pings might be so crudely estimated that it doesn't mean much).

But both area's have spot beam coverage but those are for higher speed transmissions I think.

But all in all the use of the global beam plot as the map is telling as it would be difficult for even experts to figure out an estimate as I doubt inmarsat is good at doing GPS like positioning.
 
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seahawk
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:03 am

I wonder why they rule out Somalia or Yemen and believe it went either NW or SW.

https://mapsengine.google.com/map/vi...U&cid=mp&cv=9jjFBVTGZCs.de

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:04:19]

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:05:54]
 
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airkas1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:04 am

I've been lurking these threads since the first one, without anything to add. But now I do have a question regarding the 'piggyback'-scenario.

On a route that long, wouldn't the 2 aircraft encounter at least a few aircraft going in the opposite way/same way? How likely would it be that one of those other aircraft makes a comment to the KL aircraft that another aircraft is trailing them closer than usual?
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voodoo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:06 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 2):

I wonder why they rule out Somalia or Yemen and believe it went either NW or SW.

Because those countries are heavily observed by satellite and drones?
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tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 2):

They are just going off crude sat modem network ping location estimates and I'm pretty sure their maximum position for the last ping is an educated guess basically. The two possible directions is just shows how inaccurate using maybe two large global comm beam data to try and build a position off it.
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting airkas1 (Reply 3):
On a route that long, wouldn't the 2 aircraft encounter at least a few aircraft going in the opposite way/same way? How likely would it be that one of those other aircraft makes a comment to the KL aircraft that another aircraft is trailing them closer than usual?

Would those other planes be able see the lower aircraft if it had no lights on, no transponder working etc on a moonless night?
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting airkas1 (Reply 3):

This, and also what about the moment they finally separated? ATC observing one plane becoming two would be feeling strange about it.
 
Razza74
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:08 am

If all lighting (internal and external) is switched off it would be harder to spot
Ahh the joy of living under a flightpath
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:09 am

Quoting airkas1 (Reply 3):
I've been lurking these threads since the first one, without anything to add. But now I do have a question regarding the 'piggyback'-scenario.

On a route that long, wouldn't the 2 aircraft encounter at least a few aircraft going in the opposite way/same way? How likely would it be that one of those other aircraft makes a comment to the KL aircraft that another aircraft is trailing them closer than usual?

Trailing closer than usually would be an understatement to get the two radar returns to merge you would have to be pretty close (depending on the radar system) so they would be extremely close and not been seen by other aircraft nearby or the one they are tailing. One unexpected move and it will either be a mid-air collision or they would be discovered and reported quickly. One unexpected plane and they would be discovered.
 
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airkas1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:10 am

Quoting Dalavia (Reply 6):

I guess it would be really hard, yes. But in that scneraio, would they have flown the entire route under the cover of darkness? (genuine question)
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brilondon
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:11 am

To the poster in the previous thread about using a GPS from your car, it won't work due to the speed of the aircraft, you car doesn't usually travel at 800 kph and the limitations of an automotive GPS would never be able to update fast enough.

I have just read a news clip that Maylay officials now say it was a hijacking. I will only say RIP to those on board, I think it is safe to say they are not going to find any survivors.
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na
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:11 am

If deliberate action took the 777 somewhere over the Indian Ocean to crash it there it sounds like insurance fraud to me. It will be found out soon if someone on board (maybe with added mental or otherwise grave personal problems like high debt) had a very high life insurance. That shouldnt be too difficult for a team of police detectives to do in a week.

But in case of deliberate action the chance is very, very high that one of the pilots was involved. Even the luckiest highjacker, the quickest and the wittiest needs some seconds to enter the cockpit, plenty of time for the pilot to press the emergency squawk button. Only a scenario where one of the pilots wasnt in the cockpit and/or the involvement of an FA could explain why the only one at the controls might not have pressed the button.

All other possible scenarios of deliberate kidnapping would involve a massive conspiracy, and then for sure involving some crew. The possible northern flightpath which the officials say is roughly on a line Kazakhstan-Northern Thailand, which means also over the main part of Burma/Myanmar, the most questionable, and the largest state in the northeastern Indian ocean area. Odd: why do they mention Thailand, when its further from this flightpath than Burma?

That said, I am amazed that the authorities have apparently not yet researched the background of ALL passengers and crew. Hard to believe that everyone on board was just a nice daddy or a harmless woman. This case became suspicious by the beginning of the week, plenty of time to know a lot by now. The words of the Malaysian PM today suggest that they are now investigating into who was on board, thoroughly I hope even if that will be further pain for their families.

What about a serious, but not immediately deadly structural failure event on board which partly disabled the controls and lead to the suspected odd flightpath until the fuel was exhausted or a mountain was in the way, I mean something along the lines of JAL123?

Quoting SA7700 (Thread starter):
- Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result.

Basically I agree with that, but here the main authorities of large countries are involved and not a local or regional emergency team.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:14 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 11):
To the poster in the previous thread about using a GPS from your car, it won't work due to the speed of the aircraft, you car doesn't usually travel at 800 kph and the limitations of an automotive GPS would never be able to update fast enough.

Just use the map mode. Why even try to use the road navigation 3d view when there isn't a road to follow. Also your iPad/Android can have offline map apps that do work in the air as far as I can tell. How good they are at doing air navigation I'm not sure as my phone has problems keeping the GPS working even on the ground or at sea.
 
SQA350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:16 am

Quoting airkas1 (Reply 10):
I guess it would be really hard, yes. But in that scneraio, would they have flown the entire route under the cover of darkness? (genuine question)

Yes they would have. Last "contact" to MH370 was around 8.10am local Malaysian time. If they flew west, they would still have been in darkness.
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koruman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:19 am

Can we just go back and do a bit of an introduction to the history of terrorism to provide some context for people who might be unduly influenced by 9/11? (I spent most of my childhood in England, during a period of Irish terrorism.)

Important historical facts:

1) Hardly any hijackings have been executed by the pilot or crew. It is incredibly rare.

2) Hardly any hijackings have been to use the airplane as a weapon.

3) Most hijackers follow the successful model of the Israeli Irgun and Stern Gang terrorists who bombed and shot the British in the 1940s to obtain their independence. Their actions are usually intended:

a) to convince the enemy that the price they must pay to control the disputed territory is not worth paying. OR
b) to bargain for the release of imprisoned colleagues from their organisation. OR
c) to obtain (good) publicity for their cause.

(This is why 9/11 still attracts so much scepticism and so many conspiracy theories - it does not make any sense in terms of how international terrorists have practised throughout history and it seems to have caused massive damage to the infrastructure of the culprits, who lost their safe haven as a result.)

4) China has played an extremely smart hand in terms of how it has portrayed its battle against Uighur separatists in disputed western China. They have portrayed them as Muslim extremists allied to global terror, which has been music to American ears and has seen the Uighurs lose their funding and international support and has made them so weak that some of them actually have gravitated towards Islamic fundamentalism as the only source of support.

This last factor would explain why if the USA knew that China was hiding something (such as a failed assault on a hijacked aircraft) they would not necessarily want to go public with that information for fear of weakening global unity against Islamic terror organisations.

So please think carefully before assuming that the pilot is the number 1 suspect or that terrorists routinely use aircraft as weapons.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:20 am

I'm curious also of what could be used as weapon on board to perform hijacking and are there any indications security flawed when scanning...
Also does MH have a security officer on board? Of course no security officer can fight with high altitude hypoxia, but at least he would know where oxygen bottles are located in the rear part, so if there was sudden and sharp altitude pitch he could get those and deal with the situation on the cockpit...
 
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airkas1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:22 am

Quoting SQA350 (Reply 14):
Quoting airkas1 (Reply 10):
I guess it would be really hard, yes. But in that scneraio, would they have flown the entire route under the cover of darkness? (genuine question)

Yes they would have. Last "contact" to MH370 was around 8.10am local Malaysian time. If they flew west, they would still have been in darkness.

Ok, thanks!
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na
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:27 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 15):
So please think carefully before assuming that the pilot is the number 1 suspect or that terrorists routinely use aircraft as weapons.

Of course, but in the case that this plane was kidnapped without the involvement of the pilots or another member of the crew dont you think its totally unprofessional that one of the pilots didnt press the emergency squawk button? Thats easy and the very first thing to do. Otherwise such button is useless. I cannot think about a single scenario where the pilots would not have been able to press that button if not one of them (or an FA in the cockpit) was involved. Can you?

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:28:24]
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:34 am

Quoting na (Reply 18):

If someone was invited to cabin during take-off (as was mentioned, there are claims that F/O was noticed doing that before, I'm not sure about captain and I dind't see evidence of that, except of the news about Australian lady), than he could stay until IGARI, captain goes out, intruder deals with F/O, lock the door from inside and begins pitching plane up to 45000.
It's just a scenario of imagenary movie, but it's still possible.
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:34 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 15):
1) Hardly any hijackings have been executed by the pilot or crew. It is incredibly rare.

That's how it was pre 9/11 times. But nowadays the truth is it's incredibly hard for any non-crew member to forcefully get into the cockpit, thus crew members should be the number one suspects if a commercial jetliner gets hijacked.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
UALWN
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:34 am

In this transcript

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/257..._source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

the Malaysian prime minister is quoted as saying

"Based on new satellite information, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia."

This would mean that it was disabled some 10 minutes before the last communication between pilots and ATC. So who disabled the system (which implies descending into the EE bay)? A hijacker, unnoticed? Unlikely. One of the pilots, unnoticed? Unlikely. Had the plane already been taken over at that point by whoever did the hijacking? Or is it just that the last ACARS message was received at that point, and the system was disabled at any time between then and whenever the next message was scheduled to be sent? But, in that case, why did the PM say what he said, which, hopefully, was very carefully worded?

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:36:55]
AT7/111/146/Avro/CRJ/CR9/EMB/ERJ/E75/F50/100/L15/DC9/D10/M8X/717/727/737/747/757/767/777/787/AB6/310/32X/330/340/380
 
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seahawk
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:34 am

GPS on your mobile works. I used the Alpine Quest app quite a few times during flights when bored.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:37 am

Quoting UALWN (Reply 21):
was disabled just before the aircraft reached the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia

It can be seen as "before it reached east coast but after turn around at IGARI", so after last transmission.

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:43:09]
 
BridYYC
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:41 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 15):
Important historical facts:

1) Hardly any hijackings have been executed by the pilot or crew. It is incredibly rare.

2) Hardly any hijackings have been to use the airplane as a weapon.

3) Most hijackers follow the successful model of the Israeli Irgun and Stern Gang terrorists who bombed and shot the British in the 1940s to obtain their independence. Their actions are usually intended:

a) to convince the enemy that the price they must pay to control the disputed territory is not worth paying. OR
b) to bargain for the release of imprisoned colleagues from their organisation. OR
c) to obtain (good) publicity for their cause.

Fair points. However, 9/11 changed how terrorism and airplanes are linked. Historically, to your points, hijacking has been used as you say. But with 9/11, those airplanes were used to kill, shock, and instill fear. And that changed, in the public's eye as well as in the terrorists eye, what the potential was to use airplanes in ways that no one dared before. Frankly, from a terrorists perspective, it set a new standard if you will. I'm not trying to start a debate on 9/11 (please no...) rather say that when considering terrorism of some sort related to MH370, I don't know that history prior to 9/11 is the best indicator.
 
kevinkevin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:42 am

I would say it would be more likely, if a terrorist attack, the aircraft headed northwest to the border of Kazakhstan/Terkmenistan. They need to do detailed checks of all cleaners present on 9M-MRO as it was getting ready for MH370. Did all cleaners leave the plane? A gang of terrorists may have stayed in the cargo hold. Have either pilots got connections with any of the countries on the northwest corridor leading to Kazakhstan/Terkmenistan? I think once all these questions are answered, they will have a greater clue as to where this plane is. I'm beginning to think this plane is on the ground and not in the oceans. And in tact. This accident seems to have been planned methodically. ACARS was shut down intentionally. The transponder switched off as it ended it's radar contact with Malaysian airspace. No contact with Vietnamese airspace. A westerly turn back over the Malaysian peninsula as the transponder was turned off and contact with Malaysian airspace was ended. Whoever was in control of 9M-MRO as all communications was terminated had knowledge the northwest corridor had minimal military primary radar coverage.

Can I just say. If this fiasco with MH370 was the pilot's intention, is it essential pilots have the option of turning both the transponder and ACARS systems off? Why can't the aircraft be built in a way both systems are systematically turned on with no access to either system in the cockpit? Why would pilots need any access to altering both systems? Why would they both need to be turned off in any circumstance? Obviously they are systems, systems both paramount during flight.
 
koruman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:45 am

A few more comments about the background to today's developments:

1) When the Malaysian PM spoke about one line heading towards the border between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that is Asian politician-speak for "it was heading towards Xinjiang in western China, or what the Uighurs call East Turkestan".

He is not going to offend China by saying so, so he names two countries adjacent to the area in question.

But all of us who study Asian politics knew precisely what he meant.

2) The other line he described, south towards Australia, makes no sense for a hijacking on anyone's terms.

3) No hijacker in his or her right mind is going to follow the other direction west across the Indian Ocean because it takes them to the American citadel of Diego Garcia, where they are not going to accidentally miss picking up a hijacked aircraft.

In other words, unless the motive is suicide - which I'm coming to - there is no point hijackers turning back and flying over the Malayan peninsula unless they are headed for the disputed area of Western China.

And so onwards to suicide.

I'm only aware of three such hijackings in history.

Egyptair 990 is disputed, but the relief First Officer who is widely blamed had a known history of mental illness dating from the Yom Kippur war

Silkair 185 is also disputed, with both the Indonesian investigators and Singapore Police Force not blaming the captain, and with the manufacturers of the rudder having paid $44 million to relatives of the deceased.

That leaves only LAM 470 three months ago, and while the pilot appears to be responsible we are yet to hear anything of the pilot's mental state or other motives.

In the circumstances, the chances that this is a pilot suicide are remarkably remote, and we must assume that this is a case of politically motivated hijacking.

Which, it must be said, does not in itself exonerate the flight crew. They, like the Uighurs, were Moslems and may share their political aspirations. In addition, we don't know the domestic political affiliations of the flight crew, and whether or not they were outraged by the conviction the previous day of the main Malaysian opposition politician for "sodomy".

But if the flight crew were the hijackers, political motivation is far more likely - according to history - than life insurance fraud.

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:50:56]
 
VC315
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:51 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 15):
This last factor would explain why if the USA knew that China was hiding something (such as a failed assault on a hijacked aircraft) they would not necessarily want to go public with that information for fear of weakening global unity against Islamic terror organisations.

That's not enough reason on this earth for the US to do such a cover-up for Chinese government, especially when's no proven evidence suggesting the possible hijacking is associated with the Uyghurs separatists. If the plane was shot down in China, it'd be a perect chance for some anti-China propaganda from the US (as you said, it'd be a failed/inhumane effort to resolve the hijack which resulted in the loss of 200+ civilian lives), while still able to point the blame onto terrorists at the same time.

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:59:25]
 
slinky09
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:53 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 26):
But all of us who study Asian politics knew precisely what he meant.

And seems to be backed up by subsequent press briefings.

Quoting koruman (Reply 26):
2) The other line he described, south towards Australia, makes no sense for a hijacking on anyone's terms.

Completely agree.

I return to this point, I don't see this as terrorism in the sense of killing or using the plane as a weapon. Rather I think this points to what is on board the aircraft among the passengers or in the belly. Some reporters have talked about cargo not being screened and that's an area that hasn't been talked about much ... perhaps there was something down there of high value. Or perhaps having 225 hostages for separatist political purposes is the point. If this is the reason, maybe someone in the cockpit was bribed to participate or willingly hand over control of the plane - thus no emergency alarm.

It does seem now to be indisputable that the plane was hijacked and that it is not a classic terrorist act that fits normal (now including 911 like) patterns. There is something new afoot and I have a feeling that it will become known quite soon.
 
liquidair
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:57 am

Quoting koruman (Reply 26):

I'm agreeing with your opinion that suicide is unlikely- i can't see that being an option after such meticulous planning was involved.

Has anyone come up with an actually plausible theory as to why the plane pitched up to 45,000 ft from 23,000?

Knocking out the passengers, perhaps?

Despite the Hollywood scenarios, something as complicated and perfectly executed as this would denote a means to an end- that aircraft is intact and on the ground somewhere. Where, we cannot know- but the passengers may be being held as hostage.

I just hope that they're still alive- and they very well might be.

Quoting slinky09 (Reply 28):
There is something new afoot and I have a feeling that it will become known quite soon.

exactly. and i'm pretty sure the authorities that be know the details, but for security reasons cannot divulge.

[Edited 2014-03-15 04:59:29]
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infinitybeyond
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 11:59 am

Apparently there was an emergency drill at Nanning airport precisely on the night MH370 disappeared.

http://translate.google.com/translat...%2Fnewsshow.aspx%3Fidnews%3D245161

Wonder if this could be the reason why there was rumor that it landed at Nanning in the first place?
 
na
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:01 pm

Quoting koruman (Reply 26):
Egyptair 990 is disputed, but the relief First Officer who is widely blamed had a known history of mental illness dating from the Yom Kippur war

Who disputes that still? Only certain Egyptians who deny the obvious without reason. That guy was facing accusations of sexual assault of some kind, he was heard praying and he was alone in the cockpit before he made deliberate control inputs bringing the plane down. There cant be a doubt that it was suicide. To me this is a much clearer case than the, sorry to repeat it, infamous TWA800.

Quoting koruman (Reply 26):
But all of us who study Asian politics knew precisely what he meant.

Interesting input, thank you.
 
VC315
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:05 pm

Quoting infinitybeyond (Reply 30):

Apparently there was an emergency drill at Nanning airport precisely on the night MH370 disappeared.

http://translate.google.com/translat...%2Fnewsshow.aspx%3Fidnews%3D245161

Wonder if this could be the reason why there was rumor that it landed at Nanning in the first place?

But that's hours before the flight even took off...
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:05 pm

Quoting liquidair (Reply 29):
I'm agreeing with your opinion that suicide is unlikely- i can't see that being an option after such meticulous planning was involved.

What meticulous planning? For all we know the hijacker could have just locked the door when the other pilot went to toilet & then changed aircraft's heading towards Indian Ocean, assuming it was hijacked by one of the pilots.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
asetiadi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:07 pm

If this is a hijacking... and sure it becoming more likely... then I will blame Malaysia Airlines 100%. Why? Because they allowed a hijacker enter the cockpit. Airplane nowadays should cannot be hijacked. No matter how intense the situation on the back of the plane, a pilot cannot risk 1 passenger death or several passenger getting hurt by a hijacker vs losing the whole plane. Anyway there are 239 passengers, lets say if there are 2 or 3 people trying to hijack the plane then I am sure 200 people vs 3 hijacker... well you do the math. This should be a well lesson learned for every plane in the world now. My only hope now is that hijacker able to land the plane and all passengers safe.
 
art
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:09 pm

Sorry, I did not see the press conference. What hard new information (info with given data, verified by given sources) emerged?

I see it may be embarassing for Malaysia to explain why an unidentified aircraft heading towards Malaysian airspace would prompt no response. If I am correct, Malaysia now says that an unidentified aircraft 70m+ x 60m+ in size is believed to have flown over the Malaysian peninsular a week ago. Either Malaysia's primary air defence radar is almost useless or operated in a manner that is almost useless for MH370 not to have been seen on its primary radar. If it was spotted a week ago, why has it taken so long to reach the conclusion that it overflew Malaysia?

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:11:31]
 
BridYYC
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:10 pm

Quoting liquidair (Reply 29):
I just hope that they're still alive- and they very well might be.

Wishful thinking. I echo the wishful part but I can't logically make that work. Why would anyone keep 239 people hostage and the best kept secret in the world?

If the plane did go down in the Indian Ocean as is being suggested by the US, I'm trying to think why? Surely, if the intent of the hijacking was to take a plane down, they didn't need to fly for 4-5 hours to do it. Could something have gone wrong with their plan? As they got close to their goal, it suddenly wasn't able to be realized due to some unknown things and decided to take the plane down instead? Is there a possibility that we have another United 93 on our hands? Could the passengers have realized something was amiss and took action which sadly brought the plane down?

Just trying to find a logical reason it went down in the Indian Ocean

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:11:42]
 
peterinlisbon
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:11 pm

I think it's interesting the time of the last signal from the aircraft: just after 8am. This is just after sunrise which means that the aircraft could have flown all night and landed in daylight at minimum weight with almost no fuel somewhere in the desert in western China. Any large flat open area or long straight road could have been used. From its last known position over the Indian Ocean it could have flown north over Bangladesh and then the Himalayas. Flying relatively low over the mountains would keep it out of radar coverage. What would be interesting would be how much fuel was loaded onto the aircraft and why (if it was more than normally required). It would be interesting as well to know what sort of routes and approaches the captain was practicing on his simulator, and if he has ever visited Xingjiang province or stayed in China for any length of time.
 
koruman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:12 pm

Quoting koruman (Reply 15):
This last factor would explain why if the USA knew that China was hiding something (such as a failed assault on a hijacked aircraft) they would not necessarily want to go public with that information for fear of weakening global unity against Islamic terror organisations.
Quoting VC315 (Reply 27):
That's not enough reason on this earth for the US to do such a cover-up for Chinese government, especially when's no proven evidence suggesting the possible hijacking is associated with the Uyghurs separatists. If the plane was shot down in China, it'd be a perect chance for some anti-China propaganda from the US (as you said, it'd be a failed/inhumane effort to resolve the hijack which resulted in the loss 200+ civilian lives), while still able to point the blame onto terroists at the same time.

With respect, that is not the scenario that I put forward in the last thread.

My scenario was as follows:

1) Uighur sympathisers (possibly including one or both pilots) hijack the aircraft over the Gulf Of Thailand.

2) They switch off all transponders, then turn back and cross the Malayan pensinsula, then turn towards the Chinese-leased Great Coco Island north of the Indian Andaman Islands. They either want a prisoner swap or a publicity coup.

3) They make contact with Chinese authorities, who tell them that they cannot fly to Xinjiang (they would have to cross Indian air space) but can fly over Burma and land in southern China at a designated airport, which is probably a remote air force base. The trap is set.

4) The Chinese authorities want to storm the aircraft as soon as possible after landing - while they still have total secrecy - but they haven't got time to deploy an elite team and have to use whatever local SWAT team is available in the middle of the night on a Friday in this small provincial area.

5) The Chinese switch off all cellphone towers prior to landing to ensure that passengers cannot communicate with the outside world.

6) The assault is a debacle, with the lack of preparation compromising it from the start down to the smallest details, such as the height of ramp stairs. It's the 2010 Manila bus hijacking all over again, where the SWAT team took 55 minutes from the start of the assault to gain entry into the bus.

7) There are mass casualties.

8) The government immediately goes into "save face" mode, destroying all traces of events, and pointing its finger at the Gulf of Thailand to buy time to wipe out all traces of what happened.

9) If/when the US government pieces together what happened, it is clear that nothing is going to bring back the dead hostages. Political considerations then prevail: what price can be extracted from the Chinese for American silence? This is not the only game in town: America would appreciate Chinese support over North Korea and possibly even in the Security Council after the Crimean referendum. "Maybe the airplane's somewhere in the Indian Ocean?"

Here is what the media mogul Rupert Murdoch tweeted last Monday:

"777crash confirms jihadists turning to make trouble for China. Chance for US to make common cause, befriend China while Russia bullies."

So as I wrote, even if the US did know that China had launched a bungled rescue mission which killed the passengers, there would be a strong political motive for the US to help China out of that sticky predicament.

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:23:10]
 
AR385
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:20 pm

I have read the past 25 threads and have not come across these questions I´m going to ask, nor are they in the very well prepared summaries:

1) Why Malaysia? What is it about Malaysia that this hijack (as per the PM) was planned and executed on a flight from KUL to PEK? Who does Malaysia persecutes? Of those, which groups are able to put a stunt like this?

2) Why Malaysia Airlines? This question relates to the above sure, but why exactly MH? Why not the KL flight that took off at a similar time or a plane from, say, TG? What is specific to MH that would make such an operation be planned on an MH plane and not on the plane of any other airline?

3) Why a 777? Did the hijacker (s) knew the flight was going to be a 777? How and where is this info. available to people outside flight ops? Were they looking for a 777 exactly or it just happened to be a 777 assigned to that flight and the people who did this would have gone along on any other airliner? Did theyknow the fuel load and planned accordingly or was it the other way around?

4) Why flight 370? If their intention was to fly in the general direction of Europe, why not execute this operation on a Europe bound plane? It would have been much easier and nobody would have been the wiser until much, much later.

I think that the answers to these questions are relevant to understanding what really happened. Anybody care to take a shot?

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:23:58]
 
asetiadi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:21 pm

Reply no.39

If that is true... thats gonna be the next blockbuster summer movie

Now I have one million dollar question.... how are they going to keep the surviving hostages mouth shut off forever and not tell the true story. Impossible ....

Now i have this question.... can somebody on the ground remotely access the flight control and everything and fly the plane from the ground??
 
slcguy
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:22 pm

Forgive me if this has been mentioned already, I've tried to follow all 26 threads and Moderaters summaries but this a hard thing to follow.

Since this is starting to sound like a movie script, heard a news person asking if there could have been a bomb in the cargo hold, doubt that. But, made me think, what about something valuable cargo in the cargo hold? If so, what's the possibility of this being a heist, and the plane was taken and landed somewhere? Have they checked all the airfields in the 2000 mile range they are looking at?

It wouldn't have to be a major airport, just something paved or dirt long enough to get a 777 down and stopped, they wouldn't be worried about getting it out.

Just thought of the biggest flaw in my theory, most cargo is in containers, doubtful there would be equipment needed to unload it barring a lot of man power, but still possible.

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:33:23]
 
liquidair
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:23 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 33):
What meticulous planning? For all we know the hijacker could have just locked the door when the other pilot went to toilet & then changed aircraft's heading towards Indian Ocean, assuming it was hijacked by one of the pilots.

look, nothing can proven at this point so it is speculation. But realistically, the timing of everything just seems to be a little too coincidental- the vanishing act a little too perfect and the command of knowledge required to even attempt this, by either the pilot or an unknown quantity- is huge. I'm sorry, this was meticulously planned- not spur of the moment.

i'm guessing handover to a different ATC to be a bad time to take a leak, but i'm no pilot.

if you think otherwise, fine.

Quoting BridYYC (Reply 36):
Wishful thinking. I echo the wishful part but I can't logically make that work. Why would anyone keep 239 people hostage and the best kept secret in the world?

Wishful, perhaps- but possible? definitely. So until the corpses are found I'm going to keep that hope that they may have survived because beyond the james bond plots there's 239 or so families out there living a nightmare of terror and fear.
trying to stop my gaseous viscosity go liquid
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:24 pm

Quoting koruman (Reply 39):
possibly including one or both pilots

Pilots, being relatively well established people, would go on this, flying Malaysian aircraft away? Fails for me. I don't see the sense for them doing so. It's respected airline, pilots were enjoying life from what we know about them, so how they shifted into such an act because of ideology is beyond me...
 
laddb
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:24 pm

If I am reading correctly, they think the plane either headed north or south. Has it been explained why they don't know for sure?
Maybe they had only two range measurements which would give you two possibilities.
 
vfw614
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:25 pm

Quoting koruman (Reply 15):
Important historical facts:

1) Hardly any
2) Hardly any

Agreed. But nevertheless insignificant. There were also hardly any terrorists that flew airliners into skyscrapers before 9/11.
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:26 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 41):

My shot is that either one of the pilots or possibly some other crew member had developed some kind of serious mental illness over the time and did this without any clear, logical motive. Possibly he could still feel some shame about his action, so he decided to hide the evidence by flying the aircraft into Indian Ocean, somewhere far away.

Possibly the hijacker got influenced by LAM 470, which could be at least one of the reasons for choosing MH 370 due to similar flight number.

Of course also some life insurance money could be involved together with mental illness..

People with serious mental problems committing totally pointless acts of violence isn't anything totally unheard of, not at all.

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:29:39]
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
BridYYC
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:27 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 41):
1) Why Malaysia? What is it about Malaysia that this hijack (as per the PM) was planned and executed on a flight from KL to PEK? Who does Malaysia persecutes? Of those, which groups are able to put a stunt like this?

2) Why Malaysia Airlines?



I've asked the same question (to myself.) The only logical conclusion I could reach is that it was an inside job and they went with who they could get to do it. They got some Malaysian crew to do it, so therefore Malaysia and Malaysian Air.

I suppose if it wasn't an inside job, then they may have studied various flights and their security protocols and determined that Malaysia Air had the best chance of getting into a cockpit, but that is pure speculation.

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:45:58]

[Edited 2014-03-15 05:46:41]
 
tapir
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:27 pm

How do we know there was no demand made? What if demand already made but ignored or maybe still going on but Malaysia (Msia) is keeping quiet about it?
While we are focusing on international terrorists, shouldn't we also pay attention the local issues that could prompted the disappearance of the plane.

March 8 would have been a very significant day for Msia and would have made international news for another reason but somehow MH370 disappearance superseded another event which would have brought attention to the Msia government. No,! I am not suggesting the disappearance has got anything to do with Msia government but I am asking could local events been the reason.

Tapir
 
AR385
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26

Sat Mar 15, 2014 12:27 pm

Oh, and by the way, since we are far beyond Twilight Zone territory now, I will refrain from subscribing to any theory until more hard facts are known. At this point nothing (except the 777-as-a-rocket theory) would sound implausible.

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