SA7700
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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:53 am

Due to length part 28 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 29:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates


***********************************************************************************************


SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER [ rcair1 ]: EXTRACT FROM POST 66 IN THREAD 27

Sanity Check

• Doing this as much to keep my brain aligned as to provide a data source.
• The facts have not changed much, however the is more data about track and time-line
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I'm going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short.

First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off(See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are 2 paths the aircraft could have taken
• Path one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Path two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north path and light over the south path.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.

ACARS
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.

ACARS data from MH370
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• There seems to be disagreement on if the ACARS was switched off, or if it was not expected to send more data.
• The Malaysian PM stated they had high confidence ACARS was turned off.
• But, Rolls Royce has not commented on if more ACARS reports would have been expected prior to landing.
• Turning off ACARS reportedly requires entering the EE bay which is not simple in flight.
• UPDATE per TriStarSteve,26, 186:Pilots can deselect ACARS transmission by VHF and SATCOM. This does not turn off the VHF and SATCOM, just stops ACARS from using them.
• The ACARS report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• UPDATE: Per the RR webpage a snapshot would be expected at takeoff, climb, cruise and summary post landing.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS was turned off, or the a/c did not land. It is not clear to me if the last report was climb or cruise.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat satellites.

SATCOM Pings
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible routes have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

CRV/FDR Data
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Way-point Tracks
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Search Areas
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two tracks predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north route is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Conspiracy Theories
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.

Mobile phones
• We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.

I've deleted the sections on incompetence and false sitings - for brevity.
IN summary what we know is.
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1



**********************************************************************************************************************************

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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:05 am

Here is some more factual evidence against stealing "brains" or "cargo".

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-ai...emiconductor-top-employees-1440097
"The passengers on board were engineers and other experts working to make Freescale Semiconductor chip facilities in Tianjin and Kuala Lumpur more efficient, said Mitch Haws, vice- president, global communications and investor relations."

Also if you cut the crap out the relevent I found where they were working and why it is highly unlikely to be super secret stuff.

http://www.freescale.com/webapp/sps/...homepage.jsp?code=FOUNDRY_SERVICES

The two sites according to the interview with Freescale are not even chip fabs they are final manufacturing and packaging plants. These are all likely process engineers and people working on making mfg and packaging more efficient and ironing out problems in high volume production to get products out the door in quantities and without problems quickly. This doesn't make them unimportant as process engineering is important but this is far from top secret work. (Also note how the chip fabs are all in the US) Third party companies or even the military itself can accept blank dies direct from the chip fab (diced of course) and package and test themselves. But doing chip fab yourself is very costly/capital intensive/important.

The engineering teams were likely moving between two plants and not doing anything particularly secret or even carrying anything of importance between the two plants. (You can get the same packaged devices from Digikey, Mouser, Newark, ...)

[Edited 2014-03-16 02:06:05]

[Edited 2014-03-16 02:06:53]
 
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InsideMan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:28 am

I believe the Freescale story is a red herring just like the two guys with the stolen passports and the simulator....

Does anyone have a timeline for the pings and the other theoretical locations and not just the last one we saw in the media?

Based on the radar contact going NW near Pulau I can't make sense of the southern route, as that would mean whoever flew the plane had to go around Indonesia without another radar contact to get to the southern route. Depending on the time between radar contact and the last satellite ping that may be possible, but not really sensible, since there's nothing there but vast ocean and there are easier ways to go to vast areas of water later en route to Bejing.
Besides, what would be the reason to do that? If it's suicide taking 239 lifes with you, you want attention. If it's an act of terrorism you'd want people to notice too, as that's the whole point....

Hence the northern route is the only one that makes sense to me. If we had one or two more timestamps and potential locations for the pings it would be easy to confirm.

The question is why.... 777 parts too expensive in China? Re-engineering doesn't make a lot of sense to me, as you could just take any other 777 in china and keep it in lockdown after D-check indefinitely, besides the technology is decades old. So unless there is a specific system on board which is not allowed to be sold to China(?) I doubt this highly.
Does Blofeld have a secret lair with landing strip in the Chinese Desert? Maybe, but why didn't any chinese radar pick up anything?
 
chrisrad
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:30 am

Live Press conference now

http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live
Welcome aboard Malaysia Airlines! Winner of Best Cabin Staff 2001,2002,2003,2004,2007,2009,2012
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:33 am

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 2):
The question is why....

Although I think Iran and China and both extremely unlikely destinations, and while I agree that the Freescale group seems an unworthy target for such an elaborate heist (if that is indeed what it is), I still think there was a possible motive lurking in the cargo hold.

If the intel is correct that MH370's cargo - alone among flights in KL that night - was not x-rayed, then knowing more about that might provide a clue.

[Edited for grammar]

[Edited 2014-03-16 02:34:53]
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:34 am

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 2):
Hence the northern route is the only one that makes sense to me. If we had one or two more timestamps and potential locations for the pings it would be easy to confirm.

I don't think the pings are going to get much more than what we have it took them probably days to even get the solution down to just those two possibilities. According to the news both areas are being considered possible so there must not be any other primary radar data yet to exclude or support either area.
 
Razza74
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:45 am

The RAAF AP-3C Orions are to be retasked to search the Indian Ocean
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nati...light/story-e6frg8yo-1226856192467
Ahh the joy of living under a flightpath
 
Birdwatching
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 9:48 am

So why can't anybody, official or not, provide a list of the cargo onboard?

Back when I worked at Lufthansa Cargo as a lowly summer intern 10 years ago, even I could access any flight's list of cargo in the computer, or even walk up to the large metal filing cabinets, pull out the corresponding air waybills and it would contain all the info you could think of, from the expeditor's address to the weight, description and customs info.

Why hasn't anybody done this for MH370?

Soren   
All the things you probably hate about travelling are warm reminders that I'm home
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:01 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 5):
I don't think the pings are going to get much more than what we have it took them probably days to even get the solution down to just those two possibilities. According to the news both areas are being considered possible so there must not be any other primary radar data yet to exclude or support either area.

Given that we have a sequence of (hourly? half hourly) "pings" which each provide an arc, and we know an approximate speed of the aircraft, I would hope that those in possession of the satellite data (US/UK/Malaysia) would be looking at hypothetical routings that would be consistent with that sequence, and attempting to at least eliminate possibilities by corroboration with any primary radar en route - should the relevant nations be willing to share it.
Down with that sort of thing!
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:04 am

I lived and worked in singapore for four years and had Malaysian friends. Being an opposition voice is a miserable existence and being a supporter of the opposition equally frustrating. I think this pilot had the motive, certainly the means and the opportunity. Why invent complex explanations before ruling this one out? I'd like to see the lone wolf theory ruled out, definitively, before wasting brain power on elaborate conspiracies or a heist that was apparently almost a perfect crime.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:04 am

Kidnapping engineers for any work in this way would be unheard way of hiring and I doubt they would collaborate efficiently in RnD after all they went through. Unless there are already special devices to scan brains to get all the data. Also level of their knowledge is still big question. No, this is from science fiction and action movies. I believe they probably were occasional passengers with their own goals, like refugees from Iran were, but it's not more than a feeling.
 
ushermittwoch
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:06 am

Occam's razor truly has gone down the drain here in the last few days.
Where have all the tri-jets gone...
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:09 am

No body from the pilot's family moved out according to the news press conference, everyone laughs. (Who/which news agency reported the family moved out in the first place)

Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 7):
So why can't anybody, official or not, provide a list of the cargo onboard?

Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 8):
Given that we have a sequence of (hourly? half hourly) "pings" which each provide an arc, and we know an approximate speed of the aircraft, I would hope that those in possession of the satellite data (US/UK/Malaysia) would be looking at hypothetical routings that would be consistent with that sequence, and attempting to at least eliminate possibilities by corroboration with any primary radar en route - should the relevant nations be willing to share it.

The hourly pings don't provide even a single location so the speed estimate would be literally be a range so large it wouldn't be very useful. (The exact location isn't known and it is probable the last ping was the only one to provide a good enough estimate solution, two areas is the best they got, I'm assuming)
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:10 am

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 11):
Occam's razor truly has gone down the drain here in the last few days.

Indeed it has.
 
uta999
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:11 am

Could the range / endurance have been much higher if it flew south on one engine at low speed.

Perhaps they put it down in Antarctica in one piece at dawn, then covered the wings with snow. It would be somewhere near the sea, if the plan is to use the aircraft again.

If an A318 can do it, perhaps a light 772 can too.
 
tapir
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:11 am

Local paper The Sun tweeted " @theSundaily: Missing #MH370: Communications were disabled before the pilot said 'good night' to M'sian air traffic control."

If that was the case, how come the pilot did not disclose unless he turned it off.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:12 am

Quoting Tapir (Reply 15):
Local paper The Sun tweeted " @theSundaily: Missing #MH370: Communications were disabled before the pilot said 'good night' to M'sian air traffic control."

If that was the case, how come the pilot did not disclose unless he turned it off.

I want to know how they know ACARS was off did it send a message saying it was disabled?
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:14 am

Quoting Tapir (Reply 15):
how come the pilot did not disclose unless he turned it off

Because it was already not the pilot at controls? That's why they want to compare samples of his voice (I wonder what exactly samples are) they took after second visit to his house.
 
noflies
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:15 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 12):
Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.

I thought they said that the cargo contains nothing "hazardous". Unless they said 'nothing of interest' early on (I missed a bit of it), seems to me that nothing 'hazardous' doesn't mean that there's nothing significant. Happy to be corrected.
 
theaviator380
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:15 am

Navigator has been dissembled and been taken to investigation. Indian authorities have been asked not to do any more SAR around Andaman and Nicobar islands.
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:16 am

Quoting ushermittwoch (Reply 11):
Occam's razor truly has gone down the drain here in the last few days.

The simplest explanation is the pilot flipped out, as train drivers and plane pilots have done, distressingly, before.
Absent simple mechanical explanations as candidate theories, how can anyone disagree with that?
Once you get to hijackings or a heist, it is whole level more of complexity.
I'd be curious to know if someone can actually argue a crazy pilot is NOT the simplest theory.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:17 am

Quoting noflies (Reply 18):
I thought they said that the cargo contains nothing "hazardous". Unless they said 'nothing of interest' early on (I missed a bit of it), seems to me that nothing 'hazardous' doesn't mean that there's nothing significant. Happy to be corrected.

What else would be interesting if there was something secret they won't exactly write (This box is secret, on the shipping manifest) Only hazardous goods, chemicals are the only thing a shipping manifest would show. Any illegal,secret stuff wouldn't be listed. Hence the cargo manifest contains nothing of interest.
 
Phen
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:18 am

Quoting Tapir (Reply 15):

Perhaps he was under duress?
 
ultrablue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:21 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 12):
The hourly pings don't provide even a single location so the speed estimate would be literally be a range so large it wouldn't be very useful. (The exact location isn't known and it is probable the last ping was the only one to provide a good enough estimate solution, two areas is the best they got, I'm assuming)

If you assume the aircraft was flying at a constant speed in a straight line for the last few hours of flight, it would be a relatively straightforward process to calculate its flight path (i.e. assuming constant tangential velocity) - although it probably wouldn't help discriminate between the northern and southern alternatives.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:23 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 20):
I'd be curious to know if someone can actually argue a crazy pilot is NOT the simplest theory.

Well maybe something happened that affected communications and navigation and they tried to turn back but ended up following the wrong route back and ended up over the open waters on the other side and thought they would eventually reach land.

Pilot or someone (who no one knew could fly a plane or was involved in something bad) could have also done it. We don't know anything that would indicate the pilot or passengers from international perspective but that doesn't mean they know everyone absolutely.

What is clear is that stealing some secret cargo/top secret brains/the plane is not likely. Unfortunate as it is we probable will never know what happened at the handoff point as it is highly unlikely the CVR would keep that much data.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:23 am

I think it's really not obligatory that hijacking occured after "All right, good night". Since the flight was in Malay airspace and ATC tracked it, it would be very suspicious to take the plane out before communication hand-over to next ATC. So if capture happened on even earlier stage of flight, hijacker could continue flight en-route up to IGARI, waited for natural pause of communication transmission and took the plane away. Voice sample analysis would confirm this theory or we will know that it was pilot to turn off comms and speak to ATC.
It doesn't exclude the possibility that he did it with weapon of hijacker near him, though.
 
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Dalavia
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:23 am

Quoting noflies (Reply 18):
I thought they said that the cargo contains nothing "hazardous". Unless they said 'nothing of interest' early on (I missed a bit of it), seems to me that nothing 'hazardous' doesn't mean that there's nothing significant.

The way I heard it, when asked whether the cargo had been screened, he said something like it SHOULD have all been screened (his emphasis).

It sounded like a bit of a verbal cop-out, so then the reporter followed up by asking him to confirm that everything had been screened, and the reply was a somewhat sheepish yes.

I didn't record the conference as I watched it, so I stand to be corrected if my impression is incorrect.
 
AeroVega
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:27 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 20):
I'd be curious to know if someone can actually argue a crazy pilot is NOT the simplest theory.

Completely agree, especially since the scenario is pretty similar to Silk Air flight 185.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:27 am

Quoting ultrablue (Reply 23):
If you assume the aircraft was flying at a constant speed in a straight line for the last few hours of flight, it would be a relatively straightforward process to calculate its flight path (i.e. assuming constant tangential velocity) - although it probably wouldn't help discriminate between the northern and southern alternatives.

Assuming it was flying in a straight line is assuming a lot of things given the sat position estimate doesn't give a position or heading just a huge area there are countless/unlimited paths the plane could take to get to either solution estimate area. The arc shown is not the flightpath or even a tight line (that is just illustrative).

Assuming constant speed is also assuming a lot and the pings don't give position info and with an hour or something between the highly vague location gives wildly varying speed estimates (assuming the other pings even have estimate solutions).

What we do know is that they published the two arcs as possible areas where the plane might have last been. These estimates probably already use whatever information they had from the previous pings and that the area is the best they can deliver with the days it took to analyse. Judging by how they said multiple authorities did the same stuff and came to the same conclusions it probably wasn't a simple task to do.
 
flood
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:27 am

Quoting InsideMan (Reply 2):
I believe the Freescale story is a red herring just like the two guys with the stolen passports and the simulator....

  

One could probably find "interesting" people on any given international flight and cobble together some kind of elaborate, dubious plot.

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 9):
I'd like to see the lone wolf theory ruled out, definitively, before wasting brain power on elaborate conspiracies or a heist that was apparently almost a perfect crime.

Ha, try this one:

"Russia “Puzzled” Over Malaysia Airlines “Capture” By US Navy"
http://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/russi...aysia-airlines-capture-by-us-navy/

Quoting tomlee (Reply 12):
Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they merely said it contained no hazardous goods - which is a different matter entirely. And unfortunately, the guy didn't appear very confident when asked about whether or not all cargo had been screened.

On another note...

Here's the southern arc layered over a depth contour map. For comparison, per wiki AF447 was found at a depth of about 4000m.

 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:31 am

Quoting flood (Reply 29):
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they merely said it contained no hazardous goods - which is a different matter entirely. And unfortunately, the guy didn't appear very confident when asked about whether or not all cargo had been screened.

The only thing that is interesting on a cargo manifest is if there is something dangerous declared. Anything secret or special isn't going to be listed as a top-secret item on the cargo manifest. I guess I was a bit unclear but if there is nothing dangerous to note on the cargo manifest the manifest doesn't contain anything of interest.
 
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BaconButty
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:31 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 12):
The hourly pings don't provide even a single location so the speed estimate would be literally be a range so large it wouldn't be very useful. (The exact location isn't known and it is probable the last ping was the only one to provide a good enough estimate solution, two areas is the best they got, I'm assuming)

I'm well aware that no locations are provided. But each ping provides an arc - and portions of that arc can be eliminated by being inconsistent with previous/subsequent pings given the capabilities of the 777. Other portions may be eliminated due to (lack of) primary radar returns (if such data is available and shared). With each portion of one arc you eliminate, you eliminate portions of adjacent arcs and this analysis may ultimately render large parts of the all important 08:11 arc unviable. I would be amazed if this analysis hadn't been performed - actually, the fact that there is a northern and southern arc demonstrates that it has (by implication large parts of the final "circle" are unfeasible for range reasons).
Down with that sort of thing!
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:39 am

Quoting BaconButty (Reply 31):
I'm well aware that no locations are provided. But each ping provides an arc - and portions of that arc can be eliminated by being inconsistent with previous/subsequent pings given the capabilities of the 777. Other portions may be eliminated due to (lack of) primary radar returns (if such data is available and shared). With each portion of one arc you eliminate, you eliminate portions of adjacent arcs and this analysis may ultimately render large parts of the all important 08:11 arc unviable. I would be amazed if this analysis hadn't been performed - actually, the fact that there is a northern and southern arc demonstrates that it has (by implication large parts of the final "circle" are unfeasible for range reasons).

1) Other eariler arcs probably all overlap,

2) As the arcs get closer they probably just merge together in a big blob,

3) They might have also used the lack or presence of data from the POR sat which would only really work on the last ping.

4) They don't have any primary radar data yet after Malaysia and India I think didn't have theirs running for the area of interest as it is only on demand or something

5) The moment a track breaks confirming the primary radar returns belong to MH370 will be difficult to say the least

6) They probably already did do as much analysis to exclude parts of the estimate and generate the two arcs but I think the data before is just going to be a big blob that says it came from the last point of radar contact to the last sat ping. If you drew the blob from the extremes of the arc to the last confirmed primary radar track you would get your answer it just isn't useful for the search as you don't know what path it took along those arcs as you get closer it could take any direction and still make it to the end area.

(The inverse solution your asking for in generating a possible flightpath is going to generate unlimited valid routes to the end area from the known starting point)
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:44 am

Quoting AeroVega (Reply 27):
Completely agree, especially since the scenario is pretty similar to Silk Air flight 185.

Does look quite probable. Have they checked financial status of all passengers/crew yet.
 
Bronko
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:45 am

Quoting flood (Reply 29):
Ha, try this one:

"Russia “Puzzled” Over Malaysia Airlines “Capture” By US Navy"
http://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/russi...navy/

That takes "crazy" to a whole new level, wow.
Jet City Aviation Photography
 
theaviator380
Posts: 580
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:48 am

Quoting Bronko (Reply 34):

That link showing error now !

Russia puzzled over Malaysia Airlines capture by US Navy

[Edited 2014-03-16 04:42:00 by SA7700]
 
PanHAM
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:49 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 21):
) Only hazardous goods, chemicals are the only thing a shipping manifest would show. Any illegal,secret stuff wouldn't be listed. Hence the cargo manifest contains nothing of interest.

cargo manifests Show all relevant data of the freight loaded on a particular flight. Including the declared nature of the goods. If that is autro parts is has to Show Auto parts and since Export freight has to be customs cleared the exact nature of the goods are shown.

If it is dangerous goods, the UN number, the packaging no, and all relevant Details have to be shown.

To use your words "any illegal, secret stuff wound't be listed" is rubbish.

What you call "illegal" would actually be falsley eclared without the knowledge of the carrier. It might be detected by customs are during the now worldwide mandatory Screening.

In an iunvestigation like the one going on now, the most important Detail on the cargo manifest are the shippers. They get screened and thoroughly checked.
powered by Eierlikör
 
CBRboy
Posts: 162
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:50 am

Quoting Birdwatching (Reply 7):
So why can't anybody, official or not, provide a list of the cargo onboard?

Back when I worked at Lufthansa Cargo as a lowly summer intern 10 years ago, even I could access any flight's list of cargo in the computer, or even walk up to the large metal filing cabinets, pull out the corresponding air waybills and it would contain all the info you could think of, from the expeditor's address to the weight, description and customs info.

Why hasn't anybody done this for MH370?
Quoting tomlee (Reply 12):
Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.

And even if it did, if you have privileged access to the cargo manifest then disclosing it publicly would be a gross betrayal of trust and a sackable offence in the eyes of your employer.
 
na
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:51 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 33):
Does look quite probable. Have they checked financial status of all passengers/crew yet.

I think they do, though in the press conference they were evasive when asked if the passengers are being investigated. One of the guys said all on board are being investigated, but the leader didnt want to speak about the passengers and by his rhetorics and turning to someone else prevented other questions about it.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:55 am

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 36):
To use your words "any illegal, secret stuff wound't be listed" is rubbish.

What you call "illegal" would actually be falsley eclared without the knowledge of the carrier. It might be detected by customs are during the now worldwide mandatory Screening.

In an iunvestigation like the one going on now, the most important Detail on the cargo manifest are the shippers. They get screened and thoroughly checked.

The thought that a cargo manifest is going to include illegal and secret items on a list an intern could pull up isn't very probable. If it was caught by customs it wouldn't be on the cargo manifest. Not all cargo is screened fully there is no way to open every package. I receive packages overseas with tamper evident seals and they are not broken and it is pretty obvious when it is opened for inspection as I have received packages that were opened and resealed.
 
AirKorea
Posts: 35
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 10:58 am

As I have seen and heard MH 370 mystery over the last nine days, and many released facts and data, and even speculations,
My pesonal conclusion is below,

1. MH 370 crashed, with NO FUEL(100%), in the southern Indean Ocean, far away from South Africa, Australia, Indoneisa and India.
-> MH 370 took off with 7hours and half fuel. normally, it took 6 hour flight from KL to Beijing. and one hour and half for extra.
MH 370 turn left in the middle of Malaysia and Vietnam sea and flew to north west of Penang and turn left to the Indian Ocean.
It is totally opposite direction of the scheduled route. It mean the plane flew to the Indian Ocean for 5 and 6 hours from KL.
-> So, please no not search in Andar sea, Bengal Bay, Malacca Strait, South China Sea. it is wast of time and money.
Go to the Southern part of the Indian Ocean. the plane was crashed there on purpose to aviod search. Maybe U.S government
has many data and fact while others are almost blind.

2. The reason why the plane flew to the Indian Ocean
-> if the plane flew to the India/Middle East/Cental Asia route, obviously it was caught in radar screen or even shoot down
even though the radar system and aviation system of those countries are relatively poor.
It is, in my opinion, the PILOT who eventually decided to suiside(I do not know the reason) who on purpose flew to where
little or no radar and even very, very few flights and ships on voyage. the INDIAN OCEAN is the third lagest sea in the world
and with geographcal nature, its average water level is almost 3,600meter, which is deeper than Atlantic Ocean.
Pacifc Ocean might be the final destination for Pilot but, you know there are a lot of U.S navy ships.
And the most apparent clue is that sothern Indian Ocean is the opposite of KL-Beijing Route. It mean, Pilot, ON PURPOSE,
flew to there to trick our eyes.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:00 am

Quoting cbrboy (Reply 37):
And even if it did, if you have privileged access to the cargo manifest then disclosing it publicly would be a gross betrayal of trust and a sackable offence in the eyes of your employer.

Not to mention even if nothing secret or illegal is listed people don't exactly want the nature of their shipments to be public knowledge if there isn't anything dangerous about them. The only thing relevant in this case is if the cargo manifest listed some declared dangerous goods or chemicals. If there was undeclared dangerous items the cargo manifest wouldn't have them on it due to the simple fact that it was undeclared and undetected. The only way to find out if something not on the list was the cause would be to find it on the plane itself. That will take time and it isn't like they are not going to try their hardest to find the plane and search it for evidence.
 
Bronko
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2001 3:28 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:01 am

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 35):

I still have it open in another tab. I haven't posted here in years, will the current forum rules allow me to copy/paste the article?
Jet City Aviation Photography
 
tomlee
Posts: 610
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:05 am

Quoting Bronko (Reply 42):

Copyrights and Advertising
Copyrighted material from other websites, newspapers, magazines and journals are not allowed to be posted. You are permitted to post a summary of an article or quote several lines of it and a link to the full story, but not the full article. Violations of this policy will result in the deletion of your post or thread.

Use pastebin?
 
CBRboy
Posts: 162
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 2:03 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:06 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 16):
I want to know how they know ACARS was off did it send a message saying it was disabled?

There are many dozens of posts about this in previous threads. The current state of knowledge about ACARS on MH370 is well summarised in the OP at the top of this thread. Basically it appears ACARS did not transmit any more data to the ground following the plane going 'dark' when the pilot said 'good night' at the point of hand-off to Vietnam. Whether or not it would/should have done if it ws not turned off is a moot point - there is an unanswered suggestion that MH does not subscribe to ACARS data and that only Rolls Royce was receiving data from the 777 - expected at T/O, climb, cruise and landing. However it appears that the ACARS system pinged satellites regularly en route to maintain contact in case it was required to transmit data, thereby confirming the aircraft was aloft and allowing triangulation of its position.
 
Nibog
Posts: 141
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting AirKorea (Reply 40):
And the most apparent clue is that sothern Indian Ocean is the opposite of KL-Beijing Route. It mean, Pilot, ON PURPOSE,

That Sir is an excellent post,I agree with all you say,a "rogue" pilot who for some reason or other has decided a while ago on his actions ,the variations of flight levels that have been reported sound like a cockpit fight which when over resulted in the aircraft being put on its course to the ocean.
 
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Mortyman
Posts: 4250
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:07 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 12):
Cargo manifest contains nothing of interest according to the press conference.

Are we sure they are telling the truth ?

Quoting theaviator380 (Reply 35):
That link showing error now !

Look here:

http://www.eutimes.net/2014/03/russi...aysia-airlines-capture-by-us-navy/
 
Bronko
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2001 3:28 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:16 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 43):
Use pastebin?

Actually the link is still working, I just pulled it up in a different browser so it wasn't using cache.
Jet City Aviation Photography
 
theaviator380
Posts: 580
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:44 pm

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:17 am

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 46):

Cheers..
 
tomlee
Posts: 610
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:01 am

RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29

Sun Mar 16, 2014 11:22 am

Quoting Bronko (Reply 48):
Actually the link is still working, I just pulled it up in a different browser so it wasn't using cache.

Yeah the source of that article is "special" to say the least.

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1753.htm

"As to how the US Navy was able to divert Flight 370 to its Diego Garcia base, this report says, appears to have been accomplished remotely as this Boeing 777-200ER aircraft is equipped with a fly-by-wire (FBW) system that replaces the conventional manual flight controls of an aircraft with an electronic interface allowing it to be controlled like any drone-type aircraft."

Insane.

"Most sadly, this report concludes, the US is actually able to conceal the reason(s) for the “disappearance” of Flight 370 as they have already done so after the events of 11 September 2011 when the then Bush regime “disappeared” American Airlines Flight 77 and its 64 passengers and crew after falsely claiming it hit the Pentagon, but which was confirmed by the CNN News Service [see video HERE] not to have happened."

More insane.

See link for actual source and an actual report on the insanity of the source here, http://www.examiner.com/article/sorc...eutrality-what-does-it-mean-really

[Edited 2014-03-16 04:24:16]

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