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SA7700
Topic Author
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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:26 pm

Due to length part 29 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 30:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**********************************************************************************************


**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

***********************************************************************************************


SOME IMPORTANT REMINDERS FOR ALL OUR MEMBERS TO CONSIDER BEFORE POSTING IN THIS THREAD:

**** Out of respect to the crew, passengers and also family members; close to those onboard MH370; please keep science fiction theories and content related to past / current movies or possible future movie rights out of these threads. ****

**** PLEASE DO NOT REPEAT QUESTIONS AND SCENARIOS THAT HAS BEEN COVERED AND DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS THREADS AND WHICH DO NOT CONTRIBUTE OR APPLY, IN A CONSTRUCTIVE MANNER, TOWARDS THIS CONVERSATION ANY LONGER. ****

**** Please make an effort to read through some of the threads, if possible the latest in the series, before adding your own comments and theories to the current, active thread on this issue. ****

**** PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL TOWARDS OTHER USERS AND KEEP THE FORUM RULES AND REGULATIONS IN MIND WHEN POSTING IN THE FORUMS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY RULE VIOLATIONS, PLEASE BRING THIS TO THE ATTENTION OF THE MODERATORS BY MAKING USE OF THE “SUGGEST DELETION FUNCTION”. ****

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Enjoy the forums!

Regards and thanks for your co-operation,

SA7700

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:40:31]
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:30 pm

From previous thread

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 256):
I was looking at my pictures from 9M-MRF, a bit over a year ago and I don't see any seatback telephones.

But maybe MRO had them installed and MRF didn't.

Did you fly first class?
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:32 pm

Are there men among F/A at MH routes or only women? Do we know their deck lay-out? If there was an assault or threat a man more likely to try to resist...
 
dc9northwest
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:33 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 1):
Did you fly first class?

Nope. Y.

According to wiki, there is no F on MH's 777.

Pretty sure MH was male F/As.

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:33:33]
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:33 pm


Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

3/16/14 1600Z update.
The facts have not changed much, however speculation and discussion has shifted to potential human actors - including crew.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
I've added sections on: Cargo, Fuel, Conspiracies, Pilot related conspiracy. I've bolstered ACARS/SATCOM.
Edited to add Primary vs Secondary Radar discussion.

First a synopsis
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off (See ACARS below)
The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" or "Go Broncos" (okay not that one) is very common for handoffs.
The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
The Malaysian prime minister said (quote):
"We can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the reached the East coast of Peninsula Malaysia".
No explanation of how that determination could be made has been released.
OPINION: The most likely conjecture I've seen is that ACARS was using VHF comms at that point and some indication of ACARS ceasing communication via VHF can be made. However, this has not been confirmed and it seems to me this could be consistent with ACARS swapping to SATCOM mode?

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page seems to indicate that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
Based on this, we would expect a cruise and landing report. We have heard of neither.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 91kb
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible loci have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Way-point Tracks
The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Aircraft Fuel State
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.

Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca straight
North west of Malacca straight
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

Conspiracy Theories
There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects.
It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Some of the more prevalent.
The pilot (senior, not FO) hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. Note: this makes no sense to me. It would require involvement of lots of people on the ground and it would be much easier to steal, on the ground.
The US hijacked the 777 using onboard FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcea (this one wins the insanity case).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue - and generated laughter in the latest pressor

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-16 12:07:53]
rcair1
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:35 pm

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 3):
Nope. Y.

According to wiki, there is no F on MH's 777.

Oh, I don't work for an airline or anything so for me "first class" just means "best seat in the house". On their 777 fleet I guess it would be called "business". That's what I meant.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
dc9northwest
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:38 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 5):

Oh, I don't work for an airline or anything so for me "first class" just means "best seat in the house". On their 777 fleet I guess it would be called "business". That's what I meant.

Fair enough, no worries.

Are there reports that MH has in-flight phones only for business class, then?
 
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CrimsonNL
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:38 pm

Quoting k83713 (Reply 2):
Are there men among F/A at MH routes or only women? Do we know their deck lay-out? If there was an assault or threat a man more likely to try to resist...

Definitely. On most flights the chief purser is male, and there are plenty of other male f/a's.

Martijn
Always comparing your flown types list with mine
 
giopan1975
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:39 pm

How wide is the northern arc? If it is around 5000 km long why not have 10 airplanes fly low and parallel to each other along the arc? Or analyze every inch of the arc by satellite.

It is very weird a wreckage has not been found by now with all of that available information, investigators must be 2-3 days ahead of news' networks.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:40 pm

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 6):
Fair enough, no worries.

Are there reports that MH has in-flight phones only for business class, then?

That is what their marketing materials say. But, someone many posts back said MRO was not equipped with satphones. Don't know how to verify that.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
runway23
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:41 pm

Quoting dc9northwest (Reply 6):
Are there reports that MH has in-flight phones only for business class, then?

According to MH, they do.

http://malaysiaairlines.com/hq/en/mh...ence/our-fleet/boeing-777-200.html
 
PHX787
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:42 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.

Is the secondary radar capable of detailing the heading at which the airframe was moving? This may lead to more clues.
Follow me on twitter: www.twitter.com/phx787
 
MarcoT
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:44 pm

from the last thread

Quoting na (Reply 212):

Quote:

No alarm, no plane sent up trying to find out. Also ask the general, why it took them 4 days before saying anything.
Possible explanations: 1. the supervising controllers (at several stations!) all slept and the signals were only detected when researching the archive

This is simply not true.

On DAY 2 they said that they were expanding the SAR operation to the Andaman Sea because "the air force believes that it may have made a turn back". (slightly reparaphrased from memory, emphasis mine)

This was discussed extensively here, I even remember people accusing them of wasting resource in expanding the search there.

So on DAY 2 they were already admitting that a 777 could have crossed the peninsula without them realising...

Passing remark:
This is losing face, big time. And entirely on their own volition. Saving face would have been saying nothing, and scurrying to lose or accidentally write over the tapes, a la Ustica. They did the honourable thing and got eaten alive for that, go figure.

On day 4 (it was not day 3?... anyway the press conference with the AF chief correcting the misattribution) that was better precised with the full story about the primary returns.

I remember clearly, having read the transcript of the conference either here or on PPrune, that the AF chief very explicitly stated that they were discovered upon reviewing the tapes. So already you have your answer.

Now a couple of facts often overlooked

- the Malaysian peninsula at the location of the crossing is about 100nm width, so we're speaking of a 15 minutes transit

- it sems that the crossing was alongside the Thay/Malaysia border, and there's the distinct possibility that it even entered Thai airspace...

Also it is not that air force worldwide have such a sterling record:

- Mathias Rust managed to land onto the Red Square, during Cold War

- The wreck of a Libyan fighter was discovered on the mountains of Calabria shortly after Ustica and to this day it is not even known if it happened the same day or same day before (contrasting results of forensic evidence from the pilot's body).

- Last year a light aircraft flew undetected from the Canadian border to Tennesse, crashed and burned within the perimeter of BNA, and it was discovered only several hours later...
Too short space for my favorite hopelessly long winded one liner
 
dc9northwest
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:44 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 9):
That is what their marketing materials say. But, someone many posts back said MRO was not equipped with satphones. Don't know how to verify that.

Hm, too bad I couldn't/didn't take pictures of the C class in MRF, then.

I think we can figure it out from trip reports, though.

edit: Well, I guess I'll trust their official website, then.


Do we know how many people were in Business Class? Not that it really matters, considering the F/As would be more likely to use the phones in an emergency, I would guess.

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:46:18]
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:46 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Is the secondary radar capable of detailing the heading at which the airframe was moving?

Dang - I should have included primary/secondary radar discussion in the post.

Secondary radar depends on the transponder to respond to an inquiry and does typically include aircraft ID, altitude and, depending on mode, more information.
Primary radar is a reflection off the plane from the outgoing beam. It provides a "blip" but no information on ID - only a direction and distance. And information about heading/altitude/etc must be derived from that reflection and is far less certain. A series of primary returns can be used to build a track/map.
rcair1
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:47 pm

It seems the circle of first people to be a suspected hijacker is in the business-class. Maybe few front rows from where the cockpit entrance is seen.

[Edited 2014-03-16 11:48:42]
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:48 pm

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
Is the secondary radar capable of detailing the heading at which the airframe was moving? This may lead to more clues.

Yes a Mode-S transponder is capable of reporting magnetic heading, track angle, all sorts of fun stuff. It is no use when it is switched off, though.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
na
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:50 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).

You forgot one crucial point in case a pilot is behind this mystery.
According to the official statement on the 16th the process of switching off the connection started before the final farewell was spoken. So in case it was a pilot that would mean the one who said "good night" was the one (if not both). Its suspicious that the families of the pilots should not have identified yet who of the two said "good night".
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:53 pm

Quoting MarcoT (Reply 13):
- Mathias Rust managed to land onto the Red Square, during Cold War

This was as a result of massive cascading surveillance failures though, combination with a training exercise and blind luck, and the Soviet air force did quite a lot of housecleaning after that.

This is a 777 in the flight levels, not a Cessna... and in 2014...
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
k83713
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:54 pm

Quoting na (Reply 18):



Pilot could say that himself under threat already..it would not prove he hijacked the airplane.
 
seb146
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:56 pm

How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?
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valleyflyer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:57 pm

Regarding ACARS: ACARS has messages of types 5P and Q6 that are sent when ACARS is switched to :

Here are some sources:
Various ACARS docs such as:
http://www.universal-radio.com/catalog/decoders/acarsweb.pdf

A patent from Boing talking about the 5P generation technical details:
ACARS/VHF transceiver interface unit (AVIU)
Patent number US5809402 A
http://www.google.com/patents/US5809402

I am not sure if it is applicable under these specific circumstances but I could see that as a possible explanation of how it was determined that ACARS was switched off.

As I said before, I'm not an expert on this. But the protocol seems a lot more chatty than just sending a few messages, and I believe regardless whether you subscribed to Boeing AHM or not. Would be nice to have an expert explain.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:58 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

  

As possible as it is for it to reach orbit.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
mandala499
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 6:59 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.

Let me correct the above.
The satcom pings would be operating as long as the system is powered up and it is within coverage area.

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 8):
If it is around 5000 km long why not have 10 airplanes fly low and parallel to each other along the arc?

Genius...! Propose that now!   
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:02 pm

Quoting seb146 (Reply 22):
How possible would it be for this (or any) aircraft to climb to 70,000 or higher? What would happen to it?

Maybe a Concorde could do it, many of military aircraft can do that for sure.

A 777 would stall way before reaching such an altitude.
"Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:03 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 25):
The satcom pings would be operating as long as the system is powered up and it is within coverage area.

Thank you. I've update the posting.

------
FYI - I've added a primary/secondary radar discussion.
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FLALEFTY
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:03 pm

While this is a sad tragedy, my take away is how multiple international players put aside their differences to search for this missing aircraft.
 
Bronko
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:04 pm

In the previous thread, now closed, someone was discussing the shortcomings of current CVRs, in particular only having an hour of recording ability.

Companies that make the technology for these devices are working on voice and data recorders that will in addition to record, also transmit the data live to the ground.

If that technology was on MH370, it wouldn't still be a mystery. I don't know details, but think this technology is in its infancy and will be quite some time until it is certified and deployed in any significant number.
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SonomaFlyer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:05 pm

The fact the Captain has a flight simulator and obviously loves to fly isn't necessarily a red flag. It's simply one more item to be checked when going through the backgrounds of both pilots.

The fact ACARS supposedly stopped transmitting before the final voice communication is disturbing. It's obvious they will have to take apart the lives of both pilots, then crew then the passengers to help narrow down the likely theories.

A huge part of the northern arc goes through Western China. The notion an aircraft can transit that much Chinese airspace unchallenged seems unlikely but one never knows. Sweeping the northern arc with satellite photography can help narrow things down considerably. The advent of technology and the ability of computerized parameters on the search can help further. Unfortunately, that won't help the southern arc. Unless Australia's western radar net picked up something, its far less likely we'll find the plane if it flew that route.
 
SpeckSpot
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:05 pm

Quite a bit earlier there was a report (and a photo) of a rubber thing (thought to be a Dinghy, bearing the name either "Boarding" or "Boeing") that was found by some fishermen, who held it and
called for help from the MMEA, because it was heavy and they could not load it into their own boat. The MMEA came
and then while they were trying to load it, it sank. Has there been any other information about that? I ask because if I remember correctly, it mentioned that this happened near a town called Port Dickson.

Port Dickson seems to be (according to a Google Map posted towards the end of Thread 29), about 40 miles from the location where the Greek tanker was supposed to go and look (there is a satellite photo of that). (This also was mentioned from a Greek newspaper and has also been picked up by a Swedish one). Apparently another Greek newspaper has said that the tanker got there and found nothing.

My question is: would a Greek tanker like the one mentioned in Thread 29 use Sonar on arriving at the location, or would they just eyeball the area looking for floating debris? Especially because the lead is apparently from a satellite photo, and that photo was taken a while ago before being posted to Tomnod, and it is possible that some things that were floating before have sunk? The other thing is that fixed coordinates like GPS may not correctly locate debris that is floating and moving with sea currents if enough time has passed?
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:05 pm

Quoting pvjin (Reply 26):
Maybe a Concorde could do it

60k ceiling =(
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
fn1001
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:05 pm

Is it unusual to say "God night!" when leaving an ATC sector?

Edit: I mean good night...

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:13:29]
Mai bine să-ţi fie rău decît să-ţi pară rău.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:06 pm

Regarding my "Sanity Checks"

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Sanity Check - 3/16/14 16:00 Zulu

It is my SINCERE HOPE that people posting will take the time to read these. They are a lot of work to put together and the goal is to streamline the conversation by answering questions/providing background information.

I know they are long - I'm as terse as I can be.

By doing this - perhaps we can stop the repeated questions about stuff over and over again - and focus the discussions on new information - give the mods a break.

-rcair1
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nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:08 pm

Quoting SpeckSpot (Reply 31):
Quite a bit earlier there was a report (and a photo) of a rubber thing (thought to be a Dinghy, bearing the name either "Boarding" or "Boeing") that was found by some fishermen, who held it and
called for help from the MMEA, because it was heavy and they could not load it into their own boat. The MMEA came
and then while they were trying to load it, it sank. Has there been any other information about that? I ask because if I remember correctly, it mentioned that this happened near a town called Port Dickson.

The 777 slides/rafts were a different colour. It was a marine raft. They all say "Boarding", it's so you know where to board...

Quoting fn1001 (Reply 33):

Is it unusual to say "God night!" when leaving an ATC sector?

Yeah when you are in your own area, especially your home ATC, readbacks and handoffs get sloppy, and on a lonely frequency it's not unheard of to say "Thanks for your help, have a nice night" something like that. It's surely not standard but commonly practiced. Listen to ATC sometimes or go flying yourself, people say crazy shit on the radio way worse than a non-standard handoff.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:08 pm

Quoting fn1001 (Reply 33):

Is it unusual to say "God night!" when leaving an ATC sector?

No.

See the synopsis in the sanity check.

Well "God" night would be a bit unusual - but not "good" night.

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:12:08]
rcair1
 
cabochris
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:12 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 20):
This is a 777 in the flight levels, not a Cessna... and in 2014...

ya, and what?
 
edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:12 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
Mobile phones
• We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

First of all, thanks for the sanity checks.

Respectfully though, I think it's overstating it to claim mobile phone discussions are not useful until it's been better established what the probability of overflying countries without having a single cellphone register with any network is likely to be. As SB6715 said in reply 252 of the previous thread there is anecdotal evidence of being able to overfly areas and have your phone inadvertently register with a network below.

For example, suppose there were 200 cell phones on board and 10 of them were left on for whatever reason. Suppose further the aircraft spent a total of 3 hours over areas where cell phone networks exist. What is the probability of making such a trip without having a single phone register? I for one have absolutely no knowledge with which to come up with a meaningful answer but I'm wondering if someone here who knows about cell phone networks could.

If the probability of making such a trip with having zero phones register is very low then I think the absence of any cellphone network registration should be considered quite a significant finding. That finding (if confirmed) adds credence to a flight path out of cell phone range, presumably the so-called southern arc.
 
MakeMinesLAX
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.

No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC. If the northern route were taken, the primary goal would be to evade defensive radar, which would entail following a very specific path with careful consideration to the countries which were overflown. This may have been accomplished by an attempt to blend in with normal traffic lanes. Since there was no alert issued at the time about a rogue airliner in the area, there would be no extra scrutiny of apparently normal radar traces. Another possibility is that the course involved threading the plane through the Himalayas, which would require a tremendous amount of skill and practice.
 
mila
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:18 pm

>rcair1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2009, 1185 posts, RR: 29
>Reply 255, posted Sun Mar 16 2014 19:26:00 your local time (11 minutes 12 secs ago) and read 1508 times: >AIRLINERS.NET CREW
>CUSTOMER SERVICE & SUPPORT

>Quoting mila (Reply 242):
>I don't defend the US,

>Why this statement? Very strange.
I did mean that I understand that US did not manage to intercept the 9/11 a/c since they where in US airspace.

>Quoting mila (Reply 242):
>but the tricky thing with 9/11 was that the airplane was in US airspace.

>Actually - there were 4 a/c - all tracked by the same ATC 'system' and relatively local.
>Also - remember - in 2001 the standard response to a hijacking was to cooperate with the hijackers. It wasn't until >after the 2nd tower was hit the we (the world) realized the game had changed.
true.

>Quoting mila (Reply 242):
>Swedish airspace or probably any airspace in the Skandinavian/Baltic region it would be intercepted within 10-15 >minutes.

>Today - sure. In 2001 - are you so sure?
Yes atleast for Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark


>Even in the US today - unless the a/c is near certain specific places, that would not happen.
Yes, as I wrote above there is one thing to detect a/c entering a countries airspace but a total diffent thing when a a/c in a country changes it course or failes to respond since then the ATC needs to inform the airdefence which takes time and ATC needs to be sure that something bad is about to happend and this has been much improved due !







This could provide a lead to investigators.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:18 pm

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 39):
No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC.

Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:23 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 41):
Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.

There has been speculation (on CNN and I think here too--volume of posts is somewhat overwhelming) that the pilot was using the simulator to train accomplices.

However, I agree with you. Based on the available information it's unnecessary to invoke an accomplice. The presence of a simulator is likely a red herring.
 
shortstack81
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:24 pm

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 34):
It is my SINCERE HOPE that people posting will take the time to read these. They are a lot of work to put together and the goal is to streamline the conversation by answering questions/providing background information.

Your sanity checks are very useful in reigning the discussion in. The data we have (and what's being leaked too, for that matter) are extremely limited and we have to remember there's 239 missing people.

I only have one question; I can finally put the oil rig worker sighting to bed? I've had trouble dropping it because it was very detailed but it seems likely he didn't see the aircraft based on what little data we have. Perhaps he saw a meteor.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:28 pm

Quoting shortstack81 (Reply 43):
I only have one question; I can finally put the oil rig worker sighting to bed? I've had trouble dropping it because it was very detailed but it seems likely he didn't see the aircraft based on what little data we have. Perhaps he saw a meteor.

Since the shallow body of water was extensively searched and nothing was found, and we later learned the aircraft was communicating until 0811L, I think we can completely discount whatever phenomena he witnessed as being related to MH370.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
socalgeo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:28 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 103 in the last thread page):
Extremely unlikely it carried unaccounted-for fuel unless somehow staff at the airport were "in on it".5.5hr flight + 2hr contingency + 45-60min extra fuel? Well that would put them a little later than 7.5hr, unless you assume that "45-60min" is above the BARE MINIMUM contingency i.e. for diversions and hold patterns, then 7.5hr sounds about right. There is nothing unusual about that, a few people here have posted that if you're flying into China, their ATC can mess around with you for a while, so it's good to bring extra.

Based on this post, here is what I think we know in terms of aircraft location and range:
1) Last radar position was near the GIVAL waypoint - 200mi NW of the Penang Radar Station... My calc gives an approximate position of: Lat 97.931 Lon 7.029. Live Map:http://sandbox.maps.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=95cbede59b3e471eb14b52c362966934





2) This last contact was at 2:15 AM,

3) The last "Ping" on the satellite was at 8:11 AM - 5 hours and 56 minutes later (I'm going to use 6 hours in my calcs) after the last radar contact.

Here are some things that I thing we can reasonably assume:
1) The range of the aircraft following a similar flight profile to the planned flight was the distance to PEK (2737 Stat Mi), plus 2 Hours contingency @300 Mph (600 Stat Mi), plus 45 min of extra fuel (495mph x.75 = 371 Stat Mi). for an assumed range at 3708 Stat Miles (3222 NM).

2) I think that we can assume that path from KUL to AGARI, to near GIVAL is 760 Statute Miles, based on the measurement tool in the live map.

3) These assumptions leave a potential max range at 495 Mph of 2970 Stat Miles, for the remaining 6 hours after lost radar contact.

This Map shows the 2970 Buffer on that last contact point, if the plane flew in a straight line in any direction. I think this could be close to the max distance possible, and if the assumptions need to be changed, its a simple fix to do another calculation.

[



While we don't know airspeed during that 6 hours, I'm going to assume 495 since it makes my numbers work... (I'll gladly change it if there is a better assumption)
The range of 2970 will only get the plane to a relatively limited range of the circle. The next map is a scenario where the plane continues to the IGREX waypoint and then turns south, skirting the Indonesian radars at Aceh, and then when clear taking a straight shot to the arc. The blue line is the flight path....it lines up right with where they have said they are searching. If my calcs are correct I suspect that if the plane went south it ended up somewhere between the last point on the blue line and Christmas Island, which would have taken the plane 5 hours, at 495 mph, which would leave an hour of non-direct flying....






Lots of assumptions, I know, but not overly outlandish...

SoCalGeo
 
edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:33 pm

Quoting socalgeo (Reply 45):
Lots of assumptions, I know, but not overly outlandish...

It actually all sounds rather reasonable; thank you.

As I mentioned before, I would still like to know if we can use the absence of cellphone network registration as evidence of supporting the southern arc and hence your candidate flight path.
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:33 pm

Well that certainly would put them in very deep water.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
aftgaffe
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:36 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 41):
Allegedly it flew direct to waypoints on an altitude no one else would be flying. Not much navigating skill needed there, same ol' job, different day. Really, MSFS would not help a seasoned pilot hijack the aircraft. The idea is silly.

I disagree. In and of itself, the simulator means nothing. Indeed, I would think it was pretty awesome under most any other circumstances.

But if the Cap't was the only hijacking pilot he did a number of things that night that he had likely never done before and that extra simulator practice would likely aid:

1) Flying and landing a commercial a/c without a co-pilot. Landing without a co-pilot substantially increases the normal workload. Any commercial pilot can do it, of course, but it is likely something the Cap't never did outside of a simulator.

2) Landing at a unfamiliar airport or airstrip w/o ATC and using ONLY a non-verified visual approach.

A home simulator to practice these things would be potentially very useful. Not saying that is the case here, but I think it is wrong to dismiss the simulator as irrelevant simply because it is also a common hobby.

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:37:06]

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:39:01]

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:39:22]

[Edited 2014-03-16 12:39:40]
 
nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:38 pm

Quoting edmountain (Reply 46):
As I mentioned before, I would still like to know if we can use the absence of cellphone network registration as evidence of supporting the southern arc and hence your candidate flight path.

The idea is sound, I've gotten "Welcome" messages from the US on my cell when I was high in the sky and really well on my side of the border, and I imagine the investigators will be attempting to coordinate with all mobile network operators within the potential flight radius - but that could take some time, and could lead nowhere and there are a *lot* of operators.

I have to say though, I always leave my phone on on commercial flights (whatever, so sue me) and I have never gotten a signal or a "Welcome" message in the flight levels. I suppose anything is possible and it depends on the cell towers and how hard your phone's radio is willing to work.

I imagine they are looking into it.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
TheWipp
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:40 pm

What I didn't get about that oil rig worker, I'm not familiar with oil rigs, but why was it only one guy? Aren't there a few people on an oil rig? Was he all alone? Wouldn't he call someone when seeing something like this?
That sounds really weird to me.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30

Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:42 pm

Quoting MakeMinesLAX (Reply 39):
No help for flying the plane, but it would be tremendously beneficial for practicing navigation without the assistance of ATC.

I think a 777 pilot on a 777 could handle this quite easily. I believe you can just enter a series of waypoints (GPS locations) in the flight management computer and the ship will pretty much fly itself there.
Perhaps one of the commercial pilots can comment.

Quoting edmountain (Reply 38):
Respectfully though, I think it's overstating it to claim mobile phone discussions are not useful until it's been better established what the probability of overflying countries without having a single cellphone register with any network is likely to be.

I'm not sure I agree, but you will note I said:

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 4):
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
• Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not useful.

So - I don't discount it entirely - just state we have no data that such registration has occurred. I fully expect authorities (statements of incompetence aside) would have checked that - though with the broadened search area, it may not be completed.

I also think if a country was not cooperating with that type of investigation - we'd be hearing about.

Really - it is not that hard - while there may be many 'cell phone companies' out there - most share the infrastructure of just a few providers. So the number of logs that need to be searched is not that large.

Probably the biggest/hardest part is getting the #'s/EIN's - that may be blocked by privacy laws in some places. Though in the US - the NSA is reportedly listening to us all.
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