SA7700
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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:04 pm

Due to length part 34 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 35:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory


***********************************************************************************************


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SA7700
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:15 pm

From the previous thread:

Quoting rickabone (Reply 265):
At that altitude, you don't have much time

Which is why it is a memory item and why it's so easy/fast to reach down, pull on the mask, have the mask straps inflate, and it put over your head. Literally takes a second or two. Not saying they couldn't have goofed it up but I find it unlikely

The biggest problem I have with a fire is that it would have to be in the right place to disable ACARS and the transponder and depressurize the aircraft. You are not a 777 systems expert and neither am I, but I bet you the actual Boeing systems experts have already seen what was disabled and checked to see if a fire could have hit those in a logical manner.

Plus on top of that, explaining the turns would be hard. If there was no oxygen up there, I would find it hard to believe a passenger was able to hold his/her breath up there. If it was a crew member, the crew member would have known to put the masks on the pilots.

IDK, too many holes IMO. I thought about fire theories as well but like I said, if it was a plausible theory, I think the big wigs in Seattle would have better info on that and we haven't heard anything about a fire. I'm not sure if it's physically possible for a fire to make MH370 behave the way it did
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
twincessna340a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:15 pm

I think I might have missed the cutoff, so I am re-posting. I've managed to hold off posting on this thread until now...

+1 to rcair1 for the 'sanity checks'

Quoting kevinkevin (Reply 238):


Some reports appearing that residents on Maldive islands reported seeing a low flying jet. White with red strips. Is there any credibility here?

Where specifically in the island chain are the reports coming from?

Could be Air India, Meridiana, Shanghai Airlines, or Sichuan Airlines which all have regular scheduled service to the Maldieves.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Nasir_International_Airport

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:18:39]
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:15 pm

I would think the most noticeable thing about the MH livery is the design on the VS.

Did any witnesses note that?
 
dandelany
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:18 pm

Carried over from the last thread:

Quoting hivue (Reply 254):
But not if the transponder was off, right?

Right, but the point is that ADS-C could potentially have sent up to two *future* planned waypoints *before* it was turned off. So the timeline would be something like: Someone sets waypoints for diverted route -> planned waypoints transmitted by ADS-C via ACARS -> Transponder/ACARS/UHF/SATCOM disabled.
 
KIAS
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:19 pm

I'm sure this has been posted already, but I'm going to post it again:

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

I've been saying electrical fire from the start. I don't subscribe to these theories of hijack and stolen planes. This makes sense to me. I think Chris Goodfellow is on point.
"We fly, but we have not 'conquered' the air. When we presume mastery, we are often startled by our ignorance." - DHW
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:19 pm

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 2):
Could be Air India, Meridiana, Shanghai Airlines, or Sichuan Airlines which all have regular scheduled service to the Maldieves.

That part of the Maldives only sees waterborne prop planes
 
sovietjet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:20 pm

If they find the plane eventually, isn't it true the CVR and FDR only record two hours? In essence the plane flew for very long and no recording or data from the initial loss of contact would be present anyway. So we still wouldn't know what really happened. Is this true?
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:22 pm

Quoting KIAS (Reply 5):

That does not match with the extended flight and the waypoint turns.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:23 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 7):

DFDR is 25 hours.

CVR is 2 hours.

QAR is ?
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:24 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 7):
If they find the plane eventually, isn't it true the CVR and FDR only record two hours? In essence the plane flew for very long and no recording or data from the initial loss of contact would be present anyway. So we still wouldn't know what really happened. Is this true?

CVR is 2 hours, FDR is long term 25+ hours.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:24 pm

I just got back in from lunch and I must say that the news coverage on this event from CNN is sickeningly juvenile. They have apparently got their hands on the "startlingly simple fire theory" story. They even had a printed out copy of it that they were fanning in the camera's direction. They then proceeded to play "join-the-dots", and plotted a straight-ruler line from the last radar blip off the west coast of Malaysia, to.....say it with me........the Maldives.   

Because, as we all know, hear-say trumps facts anyday - and a technically malfunctioning airliner with no communications and systems knocked out will fly on a true heading straight to the Maldives......for no reason......then cross the island chain, do a 180, and fly southeast over them again, real low - you know, because that's consistent with a cockpit fire theory with a trained pilot looking for the nearest runway.

Quoting KIAS (Reply 5):
I've been saying electrical fire from the start. I don't subscribe to these theories of hijack and stolen planes. This makes sense to me. I think Chris Goodfellow is on point.

No. Just.....no.

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:25:53]
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nupogodi
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:24 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 7):
If they find the plane eventually, isn't it true the CVR and FDR only record two hours?

The FDR records much longer. It will have the entire flight, if it was not disabled. The CVR in the accident aircraft, according to reports, only records the last 2 hours.
A man must know how to look before he can hope to see.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:27 pm

Quoting nupogodi (Reply 12):
The FDR records much longer. It will have the entire flight, if it was not disabled. The CVR in the accident aircraft, according to reports, only records the last 2 hours.

There are also FDR/CVRs with recorder independent power (RIP) but I'm not sure how many planes are equipped in such a fashion. (It only lasts ~10 minutes on loss of recorder power but that at least would help tell if it was deliberate or not)

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:27:51]
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:27 pm

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 3):


With regards to the Maldives sighting.

One thing I find unusual is that the report indicates that everyone saw the same thing and had the same observations: North to SouthEast, all said it had red stripes and was loud.

But we've seen from so many other investigations that first hand witnesses often have wildly varying stories, and they notice different things.

Why would these witnesses all have the same story?


Well I think it's because they read about/heard about before saying what it looked like,
especially when it's over a week since the disappearance.

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:29:05]
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
stuyyz
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:27 pm

Quoting pintail21 (Reply 264):
Quoting stuyyz (Reply 253):
Quoting stuyyz (Reply 253):
Quoting davidzill (Reply 181):
Again with Diego Garcia, you will not land there without expressed permission from military ATC. The base is littered with strategic bombers, including the $3.5 billion B-2 bomber. It is a U.S. Military pit stop. Highly unlikely 370 landed there unnoticed.


Another crazy theory: Plane tries to land at Diego Garcia, can't identify itself (comms are off/out), gets shot down, cover-up underway....and they are trying to figure out how to shut those Maldivians up.

If you're in an emergency and you're low on fuel, why would you pass up Male and Gan Int'l Airports, plus far preferable ditching conditions in the Maledives to continue south a few hundred miles to the middle of the Indian Ocean?

Plus why cover it up? The Navy didn't cover up the Iranian aircraft they mistakenly shot down due to a radar error, and if they show the tapes where a large, unidentified aircraft without a squawk code shows up unannounced at a military field in a post 9/11 world would anyone really be able to fault them?

The pilot had Diego Garcia as one of his top 5 landing strips in his simulator, so for whatever reason he was aiming for this airport.
Coverup: It may all come down to the base commander or even the missile operator who is covering it up, and not telling his senior officer. Who knows...its a longshot theory in the first place.
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:29 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 11):
. . . with a trained pilot looking for the nearest runway.

. . . with a trained pilot searching for that landing strip that exists in his flight simulator but not in reality.
 
jox
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:31 pm

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 2):
Where specifically in the island chain are the reports coming from?

I got this place from some of the linked postings:

https://www.google.com/maps?q=Kudahuvadhoo&ll=2.672313,72.874031&t=h&z=13

It seems like an extremely small and rather isolated place, so that might explain why it took a while for the message to reach out. It is likely that the fishermen (or whatever they might be) that live there hadn't heard about the missing 777 so they didn't see the need to urgently report the sighting.

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:35:21]
 
sovietjet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:34 pm

OK so CVR is 2 hours, I think then we will never find out what triggered everything. If suicide is the reason, then it's logical he flew for so many hours so that all evidence of it is erased.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:35 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 11):
They have apparently got their hands on the "startlingly simple fire theory" story.

And as I've said before, I think the guys at Boeing would have mentioned this days ago if there was a fire that could have more or less replicated what MH370 did. That is barring any crazy conspiracy theory or Boeing being silent while they connect the dots.

Just from what little we know, I'm not sure if a single fire could explain what happened. There is usually one or two holes that need something completely crazy/nonsensical to happen

Another note people should know--pilots are trained to react to things certain ways. I'm not saying pilots never deviate from procedures but I'm 99.999% sure the 777's fire from an unknown origin (or any checklist for that matter) does not involve the pilots climbing to 45000' to de-pressurize to put the fire out*. Now what if the pilots didn't use the checklist and instead thought of that brilliant idea by themselves? That just doesn't happen. Deviations happen but I seriously doubt they'd do that climb/depressurize maneuver

If you know the procedures and checklists for MH and the 777, you can more or less guess what they would have done if X, Y, or Z happened and they followed the checklists

*heard this 'theory' in the previous thread
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
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pvjin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:35 pm

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 15):
The pilot had Diego Garcia as one of his top 5 landing strips in his simulator, so for whatever reason he was aiming for this airport.

I'm not all that sure if that's really the case. As far as I know there's nothing that would log "top airport" in Microsoft Flight Simulator X. It has a flight log though.

I think they just concluded that all those airports mentioned in the news article are included in the simulator (as they are there by default), but maybe the captain actually never even landed into any of them in the sim.

Quoting stuyyz (Reply 15):
Plus why cover it up? The Navy didn't cover up the Iranian aircraft they mistakenly shot down due to a radar error, and if they show the tapes where a large, unidentified aircraft without a squawk code shows up unannounced at a military field in a post 9/11 world would anyone really be able to fault them?

If the first thing they would do when an unidentified large aircraft appears in peace time near their airport is shooting it down they should seriously seek some help from mental health professionals. There's absolutely no need why someone would want to commit a terrorist attack using an airliner on a military island located in middle of nothing.

Obviously they would shoot it down only after identification if it didn't follow their orders & performed maneuvers that would suggest it was planning to fly into their base. I would imagine Diego Garcia has rather good radars that would make them detect the aircraft way before it was anywhere near them.

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:42:47]
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KIAS
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:37 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 11):
No. Just.....no.

I read your reply in the previous thread. I don't think Goodfellow has a 100% perfect analysis but it's in line with my thinking. There is a ton of conflicting data and we just don't know enough yet. So it's all speculation. But, in time, we'll see.
"We fly, but we have not 'conquered' the air. When we presume mastery, we are often startled by our ignorance." - DHW
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:38 pm

Quoting jox (Reply 17):
I got this place from some of the linked postings:
https://www.google.com/maps?q=Kudahuvadhoo&ll=2.672313,72.874031&spn=0.164959,0.196552&t=h&hnear=Kudahuvadhoo&z=13

It seems like an extremely small and rather isolated place, so that might explain why it took a while for the message to reach out. It is likely that the fishermen (or whatever they might be) that live there hadn't heard about the missing 777 so they didn't see the need to urgently report the sighting.

I dunno Maldives looks like a pretty nice resort destination (http://roomsvillas.angsana.com/maldives_velavaru/Reservations/Rooms/Beachfront-Villa) and hotels (Complimentary Wifi) around the area and likely many homes have internet access. (via, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhiraagu and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raajj%C3%A9_Online

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:39:02]

Edit, more specifically the entire island chain has internet and cell access it seems. http://www.maldivesclub.ru/sites/all/files/dhiraagu_coverage_map.jpg


[Edited 2014-03-18 12:46:00]
 
4holer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:39 pm

With regards to the altitude changes, is it possible that if those altitudes are accurate, that the changes were the result of "porpoising" as in the Payne Stewart flight?
(link from result of googling payne stewart flight porpoising)

http://emperors-clothes.com/9-11backups/abclearjet.htm
Ghosts appear and fade away.....................
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:42 pm

Quoting dandelany (Reply 4):
Right, but the point is that ADS-C could potentially have sent up to two *future* planned waypoints *before* it was turned off. So the timeline would be something like: Someone sets waypoints for diverted route -> planned waypoints transmitted by ADS-C via ACARS -> Transponder/ACARS/UHF/SATCOM disabled.

I understand that, but what I'm saying is ADS-whatever goes out by transponder, not ACARS, right? Just trying to understand how the system works. I still think the whole FMS was programmed thing stems from they're seeing the plane overfly standard waypoints on primary radar, not they're seeing future waypoints radioed in.
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LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:43 pm

Quoting 4holer (Reply 23):

No, because there was only one such excursion, iirc.
 
jox
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:44 pm

Quoting tomlee (Reply 22):
I dunno Maldives looks like a pretty nice resort destination (http://roomsvillas.angsana.com/maldives_velavaru/Reservations/Rooms/Beachfront-Villa) and hotels (Complimentary Wifi) around the area and likely many homes have internet access. (via, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhiraagu and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raajj%C...nline

The whole atoll has some 6700 inhabitants on 56 islands where 11 is unhabitated. Not nesseceary that the sighting was done from where the resorts (if there are any) are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhaalu_Atoll
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:45 pm

According to Jim Sciutto, CNN, there was nothing suspicious about the FlightSimulator.
http://twitter.com/jimsciutto/statuses/445993005481472002

[Edited 2014-03-18 12:45:41]
Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
 
KIAS
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:46 pm

Quoting 4holer (Reply 23):
porpoising

Phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid
"We fly, but we have not 'conquered' the air. When we presume mastery, we are often startled by our ignorance." - DHW
 
dandelany
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:47 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 24):
I understand that, but what I'm saying is ADS-whatever goes out by transponder, not ACARS, right?

According to the ADS wikipedia page:

Quote:
ADS-A [also known as ADS-C] reports are employed in the Future Air Navigation System (FANS) using the Aircraft Communication Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) as the communication protocol.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automat...c_dependent_surveillance-broadcast
 
Burkhard
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:47 pm

Quoting Trin (Reply 11):
Because, as we all know, hear-say trumps facts anyday - and a technically malfunctioning airliner with no communications and systems knocked out will fly on a true heading straight to the Maldives......for no reason......then cross the island chain, do a 180, and fly southeast over them again, real low - you know, because that's consistent with a cockpit fire theory with a trained pilot looking for the nearest runway.

What IF one of the pilots, unconscious for hours, regained conciousness, found out all comms destroyed, and flew deap over the Island he became aware of to get noticed, hoping he can still reach Diego Garcia or get the RAF there alamed?

Quoting pvjin (Reply 20):
I think they just concluded that all those airports mentioned in the news article are included in the simulator (as they are there by default), but maybe the captain actually never even landed into any of them in the sim.

I did not visit many Airports in FSX, but Diego Garcia is an airport I know many visit because it is so remote.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:47 pm

Quoting jox (Reply 26):
The whole atoll has some 6700 inhabitants on 56 islands where 11 is unhabitated. Not nesseceary that the sighting was done from where the resorts (if there are any) are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhaalu_Atoll

More specifically, sorry also edited into the last post but there is coverage across the entire island chain it seems. They have fiber optic cabling to the island to the mainland in addition to fiber optic lines between chains with 3.5G coverage across the islands. Even the remote areas have coverage as some hotels are in remote areas.

Edit, figured out image uploader


[Edited 2014-03-18 12:50:50]

Another edit, also note how this map was dated in 2006 in the years of development and with fiber to the home available in major islands I'm sure they have even better wireless coverage and landline service in 2014.


[Edited 2014-03-18 12:54:11]
 
twincessna340a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:49 pm

Quoting jox (Reply 17):
I got this place from some of the linked postings:

https://www.google.com/maps?q=Kudahuvadhoo&ll=2.672313,72.874031&t=h&z=13

Thanks. Plotting a course between SABDI and ELKEL puts the flight path DIRECTLY ABOVE that atoll. Playing around with Skyvector instead of doing schoolwork.....

I don't think I've seen this discussed very much, but have people taken in consideration fuel consumption? The altitude changes over the Thai peninsula/Malacca Straight would be extremely fuel intensive (especially since the airplane was still heavy) and further terrain following/possible dips to lower altitudes to avoid radar coverage would increase fuel consumption drastically.

I think this alone gets rid of the flying all the way to Iran theory, much less the Middle East or Somalia for that matter.
 
imatams
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:49 pm

Quoting jox (Reply 17):
It seems like an extremely small and rather isolated place, so that might explain why it took a while for the message to reach out. It is likely that the fishermen (or whatever they might be) that live there hadn't heard about the missing 777 so they didn't see the need to urgently report the sighting.

The Maldives are a prime international tourist destination, with countless luxury hotels and a well developed tourism infrastructure. This particar little Island seems (from Google Earth) to be a fairly well-developed place not too far from Male. The locals would have found out as soon as the rest of the world did, I presume.

And, as mentioned above, all witnesses corroberating on specific details of an event that would have lasted only seconds is not really how things usually are,

Sounds fishy to me, someone wants a bit of world publicity?
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:55 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 24):
I understand that, but what I'm saying is ADS-whatever goes out by transponder, not ACARS, right? Just trying to understand how the system works. I still think the whole FMS was programmed thing stems from they're seeing the plane overfly standard waypoints on primary radar, not they're seeing future waypoints radioed in.

Based on the quotes in the previous thread:

ADS-B goes through the transponder and is inactivated when the transponder is off.

ADS-C uses ACARS protocol and goes through HF, VHF or SATCOM. It is inactivated if all the ACARS communication paths are inactivated.
 
Vimanav
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 7:58 pm

The Maldivian sighting, I think is a red herring. It could well be an aircraft taking off from Gan International Airport which is about 340kms South of Kudahuvadhoo where the claimed sighting took place. Gan sees quite a few international charters.

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boacvc10
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:01 pm

Quoting imatams (Reply 33):
Sounds fishy to me, someone wants a bit of world publicity?

where is kudahvuadhoo in relation to the any flight path possibilities? I ask as a hypothetical, in other reports one of the practice airports determined to be present on the Pilots flight sim system, was [url=http://minivannews.com/society/kudahuvadhoo-islanders-spotted-low-lying-mystery-aircraft-in-hours-after-mh370-disappearance-80268[/url] ? If so, would a crippled aircraft have to maintain a straight flight path to reach there, and could they have continued to an impact in the ocean?
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shortstack81
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:04 pm

The Maldives are a long island chain. The island in question is south of the capital and main airport at Male.

It may be nothing but I suppose it's worth checking up on.
 
Trin
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:04 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 30):
What IF one of the pilots, unconscious for hours, regained conciousness, found out all comms destroyed, and flew deap over the Island he became aware of to get noticed, hoping he can still reach Diego Garcia or get the RAF there alamed?

No, because any pilot worth his salt would not intentionally fly a crippled aircraft that could drop from the sky any second over a populated island, putting countless thousands of lives at risk. That is an absolutely preposterous idea, not to mention the question of how on earth the plane made it clear across the Indian Ocean to the Maldives in the first place.

Highly unlikely. The whole Maldives hear-say story is more than likely just happenstance. Some folks over there heard of the story of MH370, saw they were on a rule-straight direct path from the last known radar contact blip, and seemed to recall last Sunday morning that they heard a big noise/saw a big plane.
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tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:14 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 34):

The Maldives are a long island chain. The island in question is south of the capital and main airport at Male.

It may be nothing but I suppose it's worth checking up on.

Considering it is a long and popular island chain with internet and cellphone coverage across almost every area (remote or not) with fiber optic lines connecting each part of the chain and to the world as well. I'm not sure it is that worth checking on as they presumably also have their own local ATC radar (primary/secondary) with a major airport and many international flights and many smaller ones connecting the chain together. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airports_in_the_Maldives )

[Edited 2014-03-18 13:16:25]
 
4holer
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:19 pm

If the suspected plane above the Maldives was low enough and if any passengers had left their cell phone on, assuming there is cellular coverage in the islands, would it have been likely to have gotten a signal?
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imatams
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:20 pm

Quoting boacvc10 (Reply 36):

Hmm

Still find that story as unlikely as before, but I must in fairness say that if you continue the direct flight path from last known position just south of IGARI to VAMPI across the Indian Ocean you do end up.. well.. at that precise little Island in the Maldives...

Probably a coincidence, and the flight path of the aircraft as reported was in another direction altogether. But it IS a weird coincidence..

edit: spelling error

[Edited 2014-03-18 13:21:40]
 
hivue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:22 pm

Quoting dandelany (Reply 29):
According to the ADS wikipedia page:
Quoting Finn350 (Reply 34):
Based on the quotes in the previous thread:

Thanks. Sorry but somehow I missed that.

So if the FMS-was-reprogrammed theory is based on future waypoints sent via ACARS (as opposed to them just inferring it from primary radar) then whoever put the new waypoints in did it prior to disabling ACARS. Not a good way to cover your tracks.
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edmountain
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:23 pm

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 32):
Thanks. Plotting a course between SABDI and ELKEL puts the flight path DIRECTLY ABOVE that atoll. Playing around with Skyvector instead of doing schoolwork.....

I don't think I've seen this discussed very much, but have people taken in consideration fuel consumption? The altitude changes over the Thai peninsula/Malacca Straight would be extremely fuel intensive (especially since the airplane was still heavy) and further terrain following/possible dips to lower altitudes to avoid radar coverage would increase fuel consumption drastically.

I think this alone gets rid of the flying all the way to Iran theory, much less the Middle East or Somalia for that matter.

If the SATCOM pings haven't been debunked and if one assumes the engines were still running during the last ping at 0811h then doesn't that imply normal--or at least not excessive--fuel consumption?

That being said, I'd love also to find a way to get rid of the flying to Iran theory because it seems so preposterous.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:24 pm

Quoting 4holer (Reply 40):

If the suspected plane above the Maldives was low enough and if any passengers had left their cell phone on, assuming there is cellular coverage in the islands, would it have been likely to have gotten a signal?

There is basically total cellphone coverage on all the islands. It is a popular tourist destination with a lot of infrastructure and remote resorts with connectivity and multiple providers.
 
twincessna340a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:27 pm

kudahvuadhoo


Possible FMS routes that include this sighting over the Maldieves I have two destinations in mind: the Seychelles or Socotra (Yemen)

Route 1 (Socotra): IGARI - DAKOV - IGREX - RULKA - RUXER - SABDI - ELKEL - OYSQ
3362.5 nm (a stretch)
Possible motive: AQIAP Hijack


Route 2 (Seychelles): IGARI - DAKOV - IGREX - RULKA - RUXER - SABDI - ELKEL - FSIA
Possible motive: Criminal/political refuge (a la Ethiopian 961)
3154 nm (still a stretch but closer)


[Edited 2014-03-18 13:37:58]
 
Leeloo
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:31 pm

Quoting sovietjet (Reply 7):
Quoting sovietjet (Reply 7):
If they find the plane eventually, isn't it true the CVR and FDR only record two hours? In essence the plane flew for very long and no recording or data from the initial loss of contact would be present anyway. So we still wouldn't know what really happened. Is this true?

Even though it might just be the two last hours i think that would be enough to figure out what was going on... maybe not the whole story from the beginning of course but at least it would give a very good clue who was in cockpit, their intentions etc etc..
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:32 pm

Quoting twincessna340a (Reply 45):

Ok ignoring flying over a populated island being a bad idea for staying hidden, those paths all contradict the known and external data provided by inmarsat and would have resulted in very different estimates as they would have flown right under IOR and right into AOR-E coverage by the time the last ping occurred.
 
twincessna340a
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:36 pm

Quoting tomlee (Reply 47):

I totally agree. I was going on the premise of IF the sightings turned out to accurate.

I personally believe that the airplane is in the Southern Indian Ocean off Australia.

Has Australia taken another look at its OTH radar data since the new focused search area?
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35

Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:37 pm


Sanity Check - 3/18/2014 19:00Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

3/18/2014 19:00Z update since last Sanity Check.
The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
Updated/corrected section on Way-points and Navigation including ADS-C discussion
Added brief about 'new' sighting reported in Maldives.
Added "Fire Theory" section (was Lithium Batteries and fire).
In previous version: Update section on discussion of oxygen and pressurization.
In previous version: Added short section on inducing hypoxia in passengers.


First a synopsis (dropped some old 'breaking news' items)
The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia ant hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
See further information on oxygen and hypoxia below
SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
We have no ELT signal detected.
While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
UPDATE: There have been recent reports that the course changes were programed, not flown See ACARS and FMS below.
Recent report from the Maldives (island Kuda Huvadhoo) of a low flying aircraft at 6:15am on the 8th. Not confirmed/debunked.

Time-line (from CNN)
1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake

Maldives Report (broke 3/18). If confirmed/debunked I will update accordingly.
Today it was reported an aircraft was seen flying low over the Maldives Island of Kuda Havadhoo
The aircraft was described as White with Red - could be consistent with MH370.
The aircraft was reported as very low - very loud - so engines running.
Time of report 6:15am Local which is 9:15 Malaysian and just over 1 hour after last SATCOM ping.
This location - south of India - is within the range of MH370.
This location is not consistent with SATCOM data so requires discounting that. You cannot fly from the last ping to the Maldives in 1 hr.
Not Confirmed.

ACARS
ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
Reports that ACARS was disabled before the LOS event were incorrect. The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.
UPDATE: ACARS can be used to send navigation information from ATC to the aircraft and vise versa.
This later fact is causing confusion that I've been unable to rectify as yet. See ACARS and FMS Communications below.

ACARS data from MH370
The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

UPDATE: ADS-C, ACARS and FMS (Flight Management System) Communications relevant to the WAY-POINTS
Thanks to some good help by a.net members (hivue, dandelany, Finn350, speedbird128) I've clarify this section with limited success - specifically re: capabilities of ADS(transponder)
-----------------
Recent reports in the NYT imply that we 'know' that the turns made by MH370 were the result of programed heading (way-point) changes in the FMS, not hand flying.
I believe this is another case of speculation being taken as fact but I may be wrong. Basis for that belief follows - rcair1.
The NYT reports use inconsistent language. Specifically the article says:
- "was most likely programmed by someone in the plane’s cockpit" (emphasis added)
Followed by:
- "Instead of manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials." This is stated as a fact
To make it worse - the article also says:
-"It is not clear whether the plane’s path was reprogrammed before or after it took off."
But then it says.
-"Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official."
-----------------
UPDATED Attempted analysis (by rcair1):
The article is full of inconsistencies - which is red flag for speculation to me.
I believe the sentence "It is not clear whether..." is key. If they do not know if the re-programing was done before or after takeoff,Then this is speculation, not fact.
In addition - the "reported its status to the ACARS, which ..." quote is suspect.
Why?: If we had data proving the FMS was reprogrammed - that data would have to come from the aircraft via some communication channel.
There are 2 or 3 channels that could be used: ADS-C over ACARS, ADC-C over transponder?, Gatelink?
Warning: my understanding of ADS-C is very much "evolving"
ADS-C (contract) (a.k.a. ADS-A) can send route data to ATC.
The "Contract" part of this means the ATC Center must initiate a "contract" or agreement with the a/c to get this data. (the A/C cannot initiate the contract)
One contract can be a way-point event - and that will include the Latitude, Longitude, ETA and Altitude for the next 2 way-points.
If this ADS-C contract existed and way-points were reached, or new ones programed, that information would be transmitted and we would know precisely when it was changed. .
ADS-C information can be sent by ACARS - but it would not be part of the Rolls Royce EH data. Again - we would know precisely when.
The "It is not clear whether... before or after it took off." statement is inconsistent with ADS-C mode transmission either by transponder or ACARS.
Hence: It is speculation that the way-points were programmed BTW - I think it is likely to have happened, but that does not mean I know it.
Additional points:
Question for experts in 777 FMS Navigation
While I believe that the FMS (LNAV) can manage way-point transitions, I don't know if it manages altitude with way-points or not.
We saw a/c change altitude - how would this be programmed? Could changes be 'between' way-points?
The LNAV is part of the autopilot. If the a/c climbed to 45K and stalled, then recovered at 23K, I believe the autopilot would disengage at the stall.

Way-point Tracks
The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

SATCOM
SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.
Big version: Width: 720 Height: 516 File size: 199kb
Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
North Corridor
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 114kb
.
South Corridor
Big version: Width: 1024 Height: 768 File size: 71kb
We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time).Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.
NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
Clarification: The key is the system is powered, whether by engines, apu or shore line (on the ground).
Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satellite to the a/c.
Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

Fire Theory (Was Cargo and Lithium Batteries)
OPINION: I've tended to discount this based on my belief as a FF that the a/c could not continue to fly for 7+ hours. However, recent discussions have caused me to re-evaluate that.
Regarding the fire source:
One hypothesis that has been presented is that a fire broke out incapacitated the crew/passengers or caused hypoxia that did so.
(See http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinio...er-malaysia-flight-370/)
The hypothesis is:
A fire broke out causing the crew to disable multiple systems (or disabled them itself)
The crew was successful in containing/extinguishing the fire - but then was disable due to smoke and/or hypoxia.
The a/c, not on autopilot, continued to fly till fuel starvation occurred.
Key to this theory is that the aircraft, not on autopilot and not controlled, could remain in stable flight.
For most a/c- this would not be possible. But for the 777 it may - provided the flight control systems did not revert to a degraded state.
Specifically - the 777 will self trim (pitch up/down) to maintain speed. As long as these pitch up/down excursions did not cause stall (too high) or CFIT (crash), the a/c could fly.
The 777 also has bank protections - so banks induced by trim/turbulence would be damped and unlike a non FBW plane that may spiral in - the 777 could conceivable continue flying.
This is by no means proven or accepted, but it seems credible considering the advanced flight controls of an aircraft like the 777 as compared to a non-FBW aircraft.
This does not explain any purposeful heading changes except perhaps the first one which could be a turn to return to safety by the crew.
Other turns that appear to be FMS driven would be just happenstance.
It would be very interesting to hear Boeing's take on this - or to experiment with a 777.
There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening (though this has recently been weakly denied)
There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected.
Therefore some think a fire could have occurred and been suppressed. This does not directly explain loss of comms.

Hypoxia and Pressurization
There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside.Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_useful_consciousness)
above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin depressurization by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane?
The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate and I believe it lasts longer.
6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).

The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled. (I believe the flight deck crew has positive pressure O2 but I'm not sure.)
Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - will people recover?
Summary:
It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
In the case of MH370
The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/com.../777_range_singapore.pdf


Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
West over the Malacca strait
North west of Malacca strait
Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
There are lots of theories out there - some clearly "conspiracy based" some just factual. Often it is hard to distinguish.
Here are a few.
A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
Questions raised - lot of discussion about if this was possible.
A mechanical failure depressurized the a/c and disabled the crew/passengers either rapidly or without their knowledge.
Corollary to this - What disabled comms?
One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
The plane was hijacked, either with or without crew involvement.
Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. Opinion: As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
The plane was full of undeclared gold.Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
To address the data on a few of these:
1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1


[Edited 2014-03-18 13:51:56]
rcair1

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