SA7700
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We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 1:14 pm

As part 108 became quite long it was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 109.

We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 108 (by BW424 Jan 6 2014 in Civil Aviation)



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SA7700
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guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:10 pm

a388 Air Caraibes runs a PAR SXM flight with A330s, which are twin engines. Obviously they cant weight restrict with fuel as it is a nonstop flight to PAR. They have a larger passenger load, over 350 seats vs BWs 221 seats. Their fares to PAR from SXM are only slightly higher than their much higher volume fares to PAR from FDF, and considerably lower than what AF charges on its own PAR SXM flights.

TX cant be weight restricting with fuel, so they must be with passengers, but I doubt that they are running half empty planes across the Atlantic, even if they are loading them less than they do on their other trans Atlantic routes. Not with those low fares.
 
beeweel15
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:23 pm

Quoting guyanam (Reply 1):
Obviously they cant weight restrict with fuel as it is a nonstop flight to PAR. They have a larger passenger load, over 350 seats vs BWs 221 seats.

These passengers dont travel like West Indian folks you might have a flight of 350 pax but you only carrying about 6 containers of bags where as if it were your typical VFR pax you will max out the bellies and still maybe have left over bags.
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:28 pm

Beewee15 says it right, in TX case they will limit on cargo carried so in that view the aircraft will not be fully loaded.

A388
 
kl838
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:33 pm

KLM used to fly the MD11 nonstop in conjunction with the 744 triangular route back in the day, so I don't see why a 767 can't make it. What are AF and KL going to do since all their next gen aircraft will be two engined aircraft? I expect to see either A332 or A350 on the route for AF and a 787 for KL, the A343 is getting very long in the tooth, especially since they aren't getting AF's newest Business, Premium Economy and Economy cabins.

[Edited 2014-03-19 10:35:26]
 
mastermis
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:51 pm

Does anyone have any news about Bluesky Cayman?
Last I heard they were supposed to start service to EIS and some of the other islands.

http://www.blueskycayman.com/ Not much info on their website.

The last news I saw can be found here:

http://www.compasscayman.com/caycomp...rline-launching-in-Cayman-Islands/

(I searched the previous thread and saw nothing)
 
LimaFoxTango
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:36 pm

Repost from last thread...


V2-LIG ATR42 msn 1009 has been delivered to LIAT and has left TLS today. It makes the 3rd ATR-42 and 7th ATR aircraft in LI's fleet.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:11 pm

Kl838, weight restrictions apply due to the mountain that is close by. Twin engine aircraft due to them only having one engine available in a one engine out scenario have much stricter rules for safety purposes. A 747 has 4 engines, a MD11 has 3 so they only lose 25% and 33% of their lift while the 767, A330, 777, A350, 787 will lose 50% of their lift when one engine goes out. This makes SXM less attractive as twin engine operation. Airlines will have to fly with a limitation of some sort to safely fly long haul from here.

A388
 
divemaster08
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:44 pm

Quoting mastermis (Reply 5):
Does anyone have any news about Bluesky Cayman?
Last I heard they were supposed to start service to EIS and some of the other islands.

http://www.blueskycayman.com/ Not much info on their website.

Last I heard was October was the start date! Lets wait and see......
My dream, is to fly, over the rainbow, so high!
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 19, 2014 11:48 pm

Quoting beeweel15 (Reply 2):

Now that the limits are 2 bags 50 lbs I dont know that any one is any different. Any way BW will not be flying West Indians on the SXM run so that its not relevant.

@ a388.

TX uses A330 planes to fly PAR SXM PAR 1 to 3X per week, depending on the time of the year. They fly nonstop, so clearly this is not only technically possible, but also the civil aviation authorities have no problem with it.

This will also not be a cargo route for BW, so I dont know that they will have challenges that TX will not have.

@LimaFoxTango


Will there be more ATRs expected? Or does LI need to find more money first? That is the portion that the shareholders were supposed to contribute in full, but havent seem to have managed to as of now.



[Edited 2014-03-19 16:53:13]

[Edited 2014-03-19 16:55:25]

[Edited 2014-03-19 17:00:46]
 
2travel2know2
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:57 am

Any news on how GEO is going to welcome CM?
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
andrefranca
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:00 am

Quoting guyanam (Reply 9):
Will there be more ATRs expected? Or does LI need to find more money first? That is the portion that the shareholders were supposed to contribute in full, but havent seem to have managed to as of now.

I've being checking their page and all flights are bookable until September! so the "unhelpful" routes to be axed are a mystery so far...
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:17 am

Guyanam I have explained enough now but you just don't want to believe me so I won't discuss this anymore. Believe what you want to believe or contact Boeing or Airbus engineers for more explanations!

A388
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:56 am

Quoting A388 (Reply 12):

You never responded to the TX flight with an A330 and why BW cant fly a 767. You kept on referring to KL.

So why can TX fly nonstop to PAR with an A330 and BW cant fly to LGW with a 767? They both are twin engine planes. TX take off weight must be heavier because they have more seats. Both definitely must have a high fuel load to cross the Atlantic.

And TX definitely isn't flying a half empty plane at fares only slightly higher than their high volume PAR FDF route.

So why? You never answered.
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:38 pm

Guyanam please read my posts. Nowhere did I say that twin engined cannot do the route. I'm talking about weight restrictions on twin engine aircraft so BW can operate the route but with restrictions in one way or the other.

A388
 
beeweel15
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:47 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 14):
Guyanam please read my posts. Nowhere did I say that twin engined cannot do the route. I'm talking about weight restrictions on twin engine aircraft so BW can operate the route but with restrictions in one way or the other.

A388

Guyanam what we are telling you is that there are restrictions when flying into and out of some airports eg: SXM.
At SXM you have a mountain infront of you to clear. So your simple choices will be :

1 - Take your pax and their bags only with no cargo and fly nonstop to Paris or London.
2 - If you dont have a full pax load you take some cargo and fly nonstop to Paris and London
3 - If you have a heavy load you take enough fuel to get to FDF refuel there and continue to Paris or London

Now if you read between the lines everything points to what A388 has been saying "WEIGHT RESTRICTIONS"
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:28 pm

Beewee15 is correct, it all comes down to weight restrictions especially on twin engined aircraft due to the environment of certain airports such as SXM, BOG and UIO.

A388
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:26 am

Quoting beeweel15 (Reply 15):

Neither TX, nor BW, if they start the route, will be cargo carriers out of SXM. Even assuming that SXM had out bound airfreight to Europe (which I doubt) it will probably be on AF.

TX flies nonstop with fares 65% to 80% of that of AF. And about 15% higher than the high density FDF route.

Can it sustain those airfares with 65% weight restricted loads? Yes I can imagine fewer passengers, but weight restricted at 220? While AF might be obligated to provide service to SXM, as it is an overseas territory and AF is the flg carrier, TX has no such obligations, so they must be making money.

BW has 103 fewer seats, assuming that TX uses their smaller A330. Are you suggesting that 767 engines are weaker than an A330? I assume that the 767 will be lighter on take off as it has fewer seats.


Any case its very unlikely that BW will be running this route. The VFR is nil, and premium UK passengers aren't going to use them. So SXM will have to fill their planes using second tier UK tour operators. They will prefer BA, who will actually be able to GROW the market, once SXM becomes more accessable.


Only way BW gets it is if BA says categorical no, no way.
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 2:11 am

Guyanam you are finally getting it. One thing you have to remember and take into account with twin engined aircraft is the one engine out scenario. That gives these aircraft weight restrictions on certain routes.

About BA saying no, yes I think they will say no as this is not their core business or something they are looking for if demand isn't that impressive.


A388
 
trintocan
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:52 pm

All about SXM and whether BA or BW would fly from there to the UK, I see. Two other things to remember - in fact A330 engines are more powerful than 767 engines and again that is due to the general engine-out issue. As the A330 is a larger plane than the 767 the engines have to be larger to handle the engine-out on take-off rule. As such an A330 on engine-out could possibly handle a higher take-off weight than a 767 so TX could would be proportionally less affected than BW by weight restrictions.

The other thing to remember is there are more aspects to the cargo issue than first appear. SXM is not a major generator of air cargo though it is perhaps a reasonably-sized destination for same. As such the TX, AF and KL flights from there uplift little freight. While BW would not get freight from there, remember that their flights would start and end in POS which is a huge origin and destination for cargo. With BW having fewer resources and thus flights available between POS and LGW, the need to operate via weight-restricted SXM on some of their precious LGW rotations could prove a major financial liability. While KL and particularly AF bring down large quantities of cargo to the respective islands (CUR, AUA, BON and FDF, PTP respectively) they operate virtually every day, sometimes multiple flights, to those destinations. In fact, ORY - PTP and FDF are among the 10 busiest trans-Atlantic routes overall! BW simply do not have that capacity.

I think that SXM to LGW is a major gamble for BW and perhaps not a wise move given things right now.

Trintocan.
Hop to it, fly for life!
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:31 pm

Trintocan yes the A330 is more modern aircraft and slightly bigger so it will have a better performance albeit still being weight restrictions.

I do hope Caribbean Airlines gets the flight as it will mean nice aircraft photos in SXM in their hummingbird livery over Mahoo Beach 

A388
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:32 pm

Quoting trintocan (Reply 19):

I will tend to agree with you on the BW gamble. They aren't a leisure airline and I don't see them offering what SXM wants. That is an ability to grow the UK market from its existing 14k, to a larger number.

Your point about the 767 engines was the answer that I was looking for. If the engines are weaker than the A330 then they cant service the route, because I don't see SXM wasting time to support the route for just a small number of passengers. Especially as BW is a risky proposition, given the uncertainties of its ability to attract the UK leisure traveler.

BW seem to want to justify the LGW route by looking to grow it, and that doesn't seem possible based on their POS/GEO markets. Of all the routes currently under review the LGW is probably being looked at most closely as it has the potential to be a huge money loser, if it isn't already. BW has probably grabbed as much market share as they can on these routes, which are also not growing.

They have been crowded out of the BGI, ANU, UVF, markets. TAB is dead, so they are looking at SXM, knowing that the island wants airlift out of the UK. And indeed has been trying to get it for at least 5 years now. The issue with POS originating travel and cargo is moot, because BW would be looking for this as a 4th frequency, and tying it with TAB, rather than POS. I don't think TAB can deliver passengers though. I mean if BA and VS have seen declining loads......!


As to BA. Well their LGW PUJ flights are now nonstop, effective winter 2014/15, which releases some opportunities for their flights down to ANU, which now continue on to other islands only 3X week. Maybe they can do a run to SXM 1-2X via ANU. They will definitely demand the revenue guarantee that they demand out of SKB. SXM may pay them too. SBH might be good fit for the high end UK market, and BA will be the perfect product to deliver it, via SXM, given the demographics of their premium passengers.

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:36:16]

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:46:41]

[Edited 2014-03-21 09:48:34]
 
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yellowtail
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:04 pm

Quoting trintocan (Reply 19):
As the A330 is a larger plane than the 767 the engines have to be larger to handle the engine-out on take-off rule. As such an A330 on engine-out could possibly handle a higher take-off weight than a 767 so TX could would be proportionally less affected than BW by weight restrictions.

the 763s engine out performance is not far off of to a A332. It is better than a 333. Even the mighty 777 would take a penalty at SXM on takeoff due to engine out / terrain / range charts.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:14 pm

I assume that the current Acting CEO of BW, being a pilot, and probably having landed at SXM, will not be ignorant of the limitations of that airport. His mission is to turn around BW, so his focus will be (or should be) on not serving any route, unless it is profitable.

The issue, as I understand it, is that BWs LGW route, as it exists, isnt profitable. So for it to remain, they have to grow it. UK GEO travel is very small, and unlikely to grow, so even thougth BW is well placed to serve that route, it has limited potential.

POS will be divided between BA and BW. Each most likely serves its own market. BA offers good connections beyond LGW and a high frequency, and a strong brand. BW is nonstop and will enjoy the loyalty of much of the VFR market (such as it exists) as well as Trinis traveling to the UK. Many local (and Guyanese) business people are probably on its CaribbeanMiles program, so will prefer them.

BWs problem is that it has probably grabbed all the market share from BA that it can, so sees no growth prospects. So they are looking at TAB and SXM as possible growth points. TAB, for some reason, has seen a drastic drop in its international arrivals (60%), which is way beyond what can be explained by the current recession, or the APD. Even BA and VS have seen a sharp drops into TAB, so I really dont see what potential that leaves BW. If the big UK carriers, with their strong tour operator capabilities, cant save TAB, I dont see how BW could.

That leaves SXM, as BGI, ANU, and UVF have very heavy presence of BA, VS, and some charters, and so there is no room for BW. We have already discussed the risks of SXM for BW.

I am really not sure what kind of VFR market now exists out of the UK. The Caribbean descended population are now mainly UK born and/or bred. I dont know that BW can rely on them to be loyal, as they can among Caribbean populations in North America. This remains BWs core market. SXM will be 100% leisure, and the jury is out about whther BW can profitable service that market. They failed on the JFK ANU.
 
andrefranca
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Mon Mar 24, 2014 10:10 pm

Any news on that?: "Tiara air of Aruba had its license revoked".


Source in papiamentu: http://www.24ora.com/local-mainmenu-...8260-dca-tiara-air-no-por-bula-mas
 
dfwjim1
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:51 am

In regards to SXM and the engine out issue, why not have the heavies take off on runway 28 to avoid the mountains?
 
aa1818
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Tue Mar 25, 2014 9:05 am

HI all,

So not really Caribbean Aviation related- I had my first ride in an A380! BA Biz Class POS-LGW (772), LHR-JNB (A380, JNB-LHR (744), LGW-POS (772). Sat on the upper deck. Great ride.

Anyways- any confirmation on POS-SVD flights yet?

AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Tue Mar 25, 2014 11:29 am

Dfwjim1, the answer to your question is simple: there is a road passing that side of the runway that connects the city with the airport and vice versa. Another major factor is the close proximity of buildings there. Remember the KL 747 that caused so much damage there recently?

AA1818, I envy you Big grin

A388

[Edited 2014-03-25 04:43:26]
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 26, 2014 1:57 am

Does anyone know whether LIAT will stop flying to Curacao or not? For how long will Caribbean Airlines use their 767's?

Is any of this news known by now?

A388
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 26, 2014 4:01 am

One day when you notice that LI has stopped flying to CUR then you know they aren't going. They "temporarily" suspended service to NEV around Xmas, and have never returned. I don't think that they even told the Nevis gov't that they stopped and NEV is still a booking option on their website, but of course no flights are available.

An alternate will be when the LI staff go on strike, protesting their salaries after yet another delay, or when the lessors seize the planes.

They claim to be deciding within 100 days, which should be by June, but who knows.

I guess the 767 depends on whether BW can make the LGW route work or not. But if they get rid of them, they will need another 738, as this summer their fleet will be maxed out, and that is with the 767s. This is to replace the 767 on the GEO routes.

Of course if B6 snatches big market share on the POS routes then maybe that will not be a problem.,
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Wed Mar 26, 2014 3:30 pm

Guyanam,

Thanks for the explanation. I assume your reply is only based on your opinion(?) Nobody here is aware of any cancellation to CUR. The decrease now is only temporary and will be increased to 3 x per week again starting July. If any of you have an official statement of LIAT stating that CUR will be cancelled, please let me know. This same goes for any official statement from Caribbean Airlines regarding their 767 fleet. I would like to plan a spotting trip next year to POS to see these airlines/aircraft so I'm really hoping they will still be flying by then!!!

Cheers,

A388
 
LimaFoxTango
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:07 am

Quoting guyanam (Reply 29):

Yes LI did advise the Nevis govt of their cut in flights for their winter schedule. They were to return in mid Jan but clearly that hasn't happen. It when then Nevis govt got SVGAir to do their ANU-NEV runs.

Quoting A388 (Reply 30):

Not sure where or when this speculation of LI cutting CUR began. Yes it is down to 2x from 3x, but so is ANU-SJU. That's now 4x down from 7x. This is currently LI's low season and the schedule simply reflects that. To be honest, I don't see LI cutting any routes, but rather simply reducing frequencies. If that's still deemed financially untenable, well only then a cut is necessary IMO.

In other news, it appears LI will have a new CEO come May 1.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:44 am

Quoting A388 (Reply 30):

Yes its my opinion. If LIATs CUR operations are profitable, it stays, if not it goes, if for no other reason than to communicate to people that they mean business. I doubt CUR is going to provide any subsidies to LI.

LI is running out of time, and indeed there are those who suggest that it will be gone by the end of next year unless they do something radically different. I don't see any one putting money in, until LI does something to prove that they are sustainable. After all if the grand daddy of Caribbean aviation, BWIA can be shut down and a new carrier replace it with a different mission, who is to say that LI might not be forced down that road.

The issue of BW was stated already by one ofr the posters close to them. I only reiterate what they say. If LGW goes it might be hard for them to keep the 767s, much as I wish they would for the GEO. But with no fuel subsidy and serious battles with B6 they too have to make some decsions concern non performing routes.

Quoting LimaFoxTango (Reply 31):
LI seems to have some very low load factors, based on reports. 55-60%! Their expenses have gone way beyond their revenues. Staff not paid on time, Planes almost seized. NOT GOOD!

So something drastic will have to happen, and I guess that will be the first order of business sometime after May 1. The new CEO will have lots to do.

LI keeps on babbling about "social routes" which need to be cut., or revenue support arrangements put in place. SKN, SLU, and GND are broke, so cannot help, even if they wanted to as they are all in the IMFs hands.. If LI doesn't act on its threats then they begin to look rather silly.

Li did tell NEV that they would be back after Xmas. but didn't show up in Jan. So we can say they just disappeared, without telling NEV anything.

[Edited 2014-03-26 21:46:26]
 
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817Dreamliiner
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 27, 2014 10:31 am

Quoting dfwjim1 (Reply 25):

In regards to SXM and the engine out issue, why not have the heavies take off on runway 28 to avoid the mountains

In addition to what A388 said, it would also depend on the winds. I don't have any numbers, but I doubt a widebody twin can take off from there with a tailwind without taking a penalty.
Please let me know... If you know this is the end of the world, Let me know... If you know the truth...
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Mar 27, 2014 6:13 pm

Well, it seems we have totally different opinions on LI stopping CUR. Please keep me informed about whether LI will stop flying to CUR or not and also what Caribbean Airlines' plans are for their 767 fleet.

See my latest aircraft photos in below links:



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Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography
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Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography


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Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography
View Large View Medium
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Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography
View Large View Medium
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Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography


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Photo © Roger Cannegieter - Curacao Aviation Photography




Hope you like them.

A388
 
LimaFoxTango
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:19 pm

LIAT Appoints Mr. David Evans Chief Executive Officer


ST. JOHN’S, Antigua, March 31, 2014 – The Board of Directors of LIAT – The Caribbean Airline – today announced the appointment of Mr. David Evans as Chief Executive Officer (CEO), effective 22nd April 2014.

Mr. Evans, a British national, is a results driven executive with more than 35 years of experience in senior roles within the aviation industry.

Between 1975 and 1997, Mr. Evans served as Airport Manager, Country Manager and Area Manager with British Airways in East Africa, Saudi Arabia, France, Philippines, China, Denmark and the United States. In this latter role, he held responsibility for the airline’s activities in Latin America and the Caribbean.

In 1997, he became Managing Director, British Airways Regional, a position held until 2001 when he became Managing Director, British Airways CitiExpress and BA Connect, serving in that capacity for six years.

He Joined the United Nations UNDP programme in 2007 and under their auspices served as Chief Operating Officer of Zambian Airways in 2007. In 2009 he joined Kuwait start-up airline Wataniya Airways as Chief Commercial Officer. Since then he has provided strategic and commercial consultancy services to Egypt’s Nile Air and other organisations in the Middle East.

Mr. Evans, who speaks Spanish, French, German and Mandarin Chinese, holds an MBA in Business Administration from Lancaster University and Combined Honours in Modern Languages from Wadham College, Oxford University.

Mr. Evans assumes the chief executive responsibilities from Mrs. Julie Reifer-Jones, who has been Acting CEO since the resignation of Captain Ian Brunton in September 2013.

http://www.liat.com/navSource.html?page_id=780
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
andrefranca
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Mon Mar 31, 2014 11:30 pm

Quoting LimaFoxTango (Reply 35):

Quite impressive background, let's see how he'll handle LI, European managers are often "straight to the point".

Any guesses?

I do: he'll reduce flight quantity, not sure he'll drop the "social routes" yet.
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:13 am

Quoting andrefranca (Reply 36):

If LI is operating routes that are social. i.e. having no ability to be profitable, the new CEO will be just the man to deal with this issue. Not being from the Caribbean he is less vulnerable to influence from local stakeholders, including politicians. He can be blamed as being the
hatchet man.

LI needs to address the issue of social routes, or stop complaining about it. If the operation isn't profitable, then it should not be running unprofitable rouytes, unless revenue guarantees are provided. If these routes are important governments will find the money, or make other arrangements, as NEV had to.

What LI needs to do is move away from a model where they rely on unending subsidies from gov'ts. These islands are broke.

Lets face it, the US and UK leisure markets are larger and more beneficial than is intra regional travel. So if AA or BA hold these govts over a barrel and demand subsidies, they will get them. Its very easy for a major carrier to just zero out a Caribbean destination. When that island how ever loses service from a major market its a disaster. The last thing that an island like SKB will want is to have their US visitors being forced to use (GASP) LI. All one has to do is to check tripadvisor to know that any island that only has LI is an island which will attract fewer international visitors.

LI will need to move to a model where the negotiate with impacted islands routes which will never be viable, but which an island might consider important. So if, as an example DOM thinks that the flight from SJU is critical, then LI should obtain revenue guarantees if they can prove that the route needs support.
 
LimaFoxTango
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 2:42 pm

CAL flops on London route

Caribbean Airlines’ route to London Gatwick has proven unsuccessful. So said Finance Minister Larry Howai in the Senate yesterday as he responded to questions on the operations and management of CAL. But the airline would not be cancelling the route, he said.


“The London route has not been a profitable route. We are in the process of doing a full evaluation of route optimisation analysis to determine how best we might be able to rationalise the overall level of routes for Caribbean Airlines but we have made no final decision with respect to any of the routes. All routes are in the process of being currently evaluated,” Howai said. PNM Senator Faris Al-Rawi asked whether the “route analysis would meet with the analysis which the new board was to put in place within 90 days of its appointment.”

Howai said the board had done a full analysis in terms of cost reduction and submitted a report. He added: “Following the analysis of the report I then asked that the specific route analysis be done as I wasn’t satisfied with the suggestions and recommendations that came from the first evaluation. “Caribbean Airlines had to employ specific consultancy support to assist with the completion of that exercise and the exercise is due to be completed within the next month.”

Pressed by Al-Rawi on who the consultant was, Howai said he did not have the name with him. On the training of non-national pilots, Howai said CAL trained 41 people during 2008 to 2013 and all worked for the airline on contract.

http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2014-04-03/howai-cal-flops-london-route
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 2:49 pm

Quoting LimaFoxTango (Reply 38):
CAL flops on London route

I think we are all anxious in seeing how each of their routes have performed and more importantly which routes will stay and which will go should that happen. I still get the impression that their 767 fleet is here to stay at least for this year. When do those lease contracts expire?

Regarding LIAT, I'm also very interested in what will happen there regarding their CUR flights as I would like to fly their brandnew ATR's before they stop flying to CUR. I prefer their ATR72 over their ATR42 though 

A388
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 3:54 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 39):

Do you have a way of finding out what LIs loads to CUR are? That will determine if they drop CUR or not. And I mean at this time of the year. Not Jul/Aug when I assume that the loads will be strong.

It appears as if BW will try their best to save the LGW route, so the 767s will most likely stay. This is going to be a tough year for them though, with heightened B6 competition and no fuel subsidy.

Quoting LimaFoxTango (Reply 38):

I also wonder what impact B6 is having on the JFK POS route, and on the FLL POS, once that starts next month. B6 has low fares, and I gather that many are taking advantage. It will be interesting to see if more travel is being stimulated or if most of it are people switching from BW.

[Edited 2014-04-03 08:54:35]
 
A388
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:05 pm

Quoting guyanam (Reply 40):
Do you have a way of finding out what LIs loads to CUR are? That will determine if they drop CUR or not. And I mean at this time of the year. Not Jul/Aug when I assume that the loads will be strong.

Unfortunately I don't have the loads but I heard it is about 50 percent but they also carry cargo on the flight which also seems to be good for LIAT. Maybe our friends in the forum here can shed more light on this.

Quoting guyanam (Reply 40):
I also wonder what impact B6 is having on the JFK POS route, and on the FLL POS, once that starts next month. B6 has low fares, and I gather that many are taking advantage. It will be interesting to see if more travel is being stimulated or if most of it are people switching from BW.

Checking for a return flight a week from now the prices from JFK are very high (USD693.40 all in). However, a return ticket in October costs USD430.40. The April flight is definately not cheap but probably that is because of the close dates. Even so, it is an interesting question, we will need some patience to see how the load factors will be at the end of the year. It is too early now to make conclusions.

A388
 
2travel2know2
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:55 pm

Seems some CM people in GEO these days. Waiting to hear what they've to say about Guyana. Hope they don't miss visit to famous rum distillery.
I'm not on CM's payroll.
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 10:05 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 41):

Well if LI makes money on the cargo that will offset the mediocre loads.

April is probably high because of Easter. May has Jetblue with $421 and BW with $511. BW has cut their fares. Guess the $200 gap had people defecting.
 
LimaFoxTango
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Thu Apr 03, 2014 11:11 pm

Quoting A388 (Reply 41):

I doubt LI carries that much cargo on its pax flights to offset any poor performing route. Not sure the numbers for CUR, but IMO, it does decent enough keep it. Perhaps if its marketed more the numbers will go up. Anyway there's no time like the present. Try hopping on that flight! You never know what the future holds.

With regards to BW and their LGW route, I think it was no secret the route is under performing. Having now publically admitting it, I'm surprised they have no intent on cutting it (at least not anytime soon). I think we all know the end of the LGW route will be the end of the 767's.
You are said to be a good pilot when your take-off's equal your landings.
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Apr 04, 2014 3:51 am

Quoting LimaFoxTango (Reply 44):

LIs problem on the CUR is that PY is the competition with jets and 3X per week. Given that a lot of people go to shop I can well imagine that PY has an advantage on the POS CUR. It depends on how much LI gets out of ANU and SLU. Given SXM is English speaking and offers the same attraction St Lucians might prefer there. Obviously Antiguans will, given that its a quick 30 minute flight away.

As for LGW, well BW seems to want to keep it, I guess due to complications unwinding out of the 767 lease. I am not sure how much they can do, based on POS alone though. Another issue is that JFK isn't going to throw off the yields that it did last year with B6 on that route now, so each route will have to pull its own weight.

[Edited 2014-04-03 20:54:13]
 
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yellowtail
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:12 pm

Reported in another thread that VS has canned TAB.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
guyanam
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:46 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 46):

No surprise as TAB has seen a 60% slump in its foreign visitors over the last 5 years. Definitely more than any other Caribbean destination. Same blame deteriorating hotel stock. Others the well publicized criminal incidents against tourists, with TAB obviously not using quality PR agencies, as an attack on a tour bus in St Lucia late last year was hushed up..
 
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yellowtail
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RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Apr 04, 2014 8:29 pm

Quoting guyanam (Reply 47):
as an attack on a tour bus in St Lucia late last year was hushed up..

We to be fair their are incidents against tourists in the USA too…...
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
guyanam
Posts: 1954
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:21 pm

RE: We're Still Hot! - Caribbean Aviation Thread 109

Fri Apr 04, 2014 11:57 pm

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 48):

That's true but people don't visit the USA for rest and tranquility, so a reputation for crime hurts the Caribbean more. Especially the smaller more off the beaten track islands like TAB, as many go to those islands, which have a limited range of activities and amenities, precisely because they wish to escape the trials of the modern world.

This might be why SLU was able to quiet the bus attack, but when a similar incident happened on SKB several years ago it went viral, even hitting the evening news in several TV markets.

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