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SA7700
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A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 5:27 am

As part 5 became quite long, part 6 has been created and is now open for discussion.

Part 1 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely (Part 1) (by StickShaker Dec 30 2013 in Civil Aviation)

Part 2 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely (Part 2) (by SA7700 Jan 4 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 3 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 3 (by SA7700 Jan 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 4 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 4 (by SA7700 Jan 31 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Part 5 is available here:

A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 5 (by SA7700 Feb 23 2014 in Civil Aviation)


Please ensure to post according to the rules-and regulations of airliners.net. Enjoy the forums!

Thanks and regards,

SA7700
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StickShaker
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:17 am

Quoting Revelation post 248:
The whole reason the 777-9X has massive orders before EIS is due to the shortcomings of the A350-1000...

Enough?


We seem to have wandered a bit off topic here, maybe we can have the 35J/777X debate in another thread (suffice to say we disagree).

The 330Neo position seems to be firstly whether to do it or not and secondly the degree of updated engine technology required to make the aircraft sufficiently competitive. The (highly knowledgeable) consensus of A.net suggests a modified existing engine for a 2018 EIS and a 2020 EIS for a new engine.
2 years can be a long time in terms of market opportunities (CIT article) for an airframe approaching the end of its sales life. The benefits of waiting until 2020 would be significant in terms of remaining competitive for much longer into the late 2020's.
It is essentially a balancing act between engine technology, time to market, longevity into the 2020's, remaining competitive on short sectors and no doubt many others that I can't think of at the moment.

There are now quite a few airlines pushing Airbus to proceed with the A330Neo - are there any airlines who are firmly resisting the push for the A330Neo (ie the "don't change a thing" brigade) ?
No doubt the performance improvement of any A330Neo on regional sectors would not be sacrificed for any long range capabilities.


Cheers,
StickShaker

[Edited 2014-03-20 01:44:42]
 
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seahawk
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:33 am

RR claims the advance engine line will be ready by the end of the decade - so EIS 2019 could be possible.
 
StTim
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:02 am

Agree don't want to go too far off topic but Boeing only did the 777X due to the success of the A350-1000
 
astuteman
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:17 pm

Quoting StickShaker, reply=1:
There are now quite a few airlines pushing Airbus to proceed with the A330Neo - are there any airlines who are firmly resisting the push for the A330Neo (ie the "don't change a thing" brigade) ?

I think the point that needs to be brought out here is that, whether the airlines/lessors are really interested in the A330NEO, or are looking for some airbus leverage vs the 787, the fact is that they now seem to see the A330NEO as the answer in both cases.

I don't hear a growing clamour for an optimisation of the A350-800 and I hear no customer at all saying "Please don't change it"

It is seems very clear that the customers, from their perspective, see the A330NEO as Airbus's most appropriate response.
Airbus need to see the same thing though (and I can't really see any reason why they shouldn't)

Quoting StTim, reply=4:
Agree don't want to go too far off topic but Boeing only did the 777X due to the success of the A350-1000

I'd venture to suggest that it would be more accurate to say that Boeing did the 777X because of the very real THREAT posed by the A350-1000 (i.e. the potential success)

Suffice to say, that pointing at the huge MOU's from those ME airlines that were always going to place mega orders for the 777X as being in some way reflective of the A350-1000's long term prospects, or lack of, is, frankly, infantile.
(As is dismissing the 777X as an "ME3 special" on the flip side).

Rgds
 
Devilfish
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:22 pm

It is quite enlightening that we are now into the 6th thread debating this topic three and a half years after nearly the same question was posed, perhaps not for the first time.....

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z160/keesje_pics/AirbusA330NEO.jpg

Airbus A330 NEO, Will It Stand A Chance? (by keesje Aug 13 2010 in Civil Aviation)#1


.....due in large part IMHO to Airbus practically consigning the A358 to the "recycle later" bin...and for very good reasons too, I would say.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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Revelation
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:45 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 1):
We seem to have wandered a bit off topic here, maybe we can have the 35J/777X debate in another thread (suffice to say we disagree).

Yes, and yes... Sorry for a bit of excess exuberance...
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
StickShaker
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 12:51 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 7):
Quoting StickShaker (Reply 1):We seem to have wandered a bit off topic here, maybe we can have the 35J/777X debate in another thread (suffice to say we disagree).
Yes, and yes... Sorry for a bit of excess exuberance...

That's OK - all good fun.  


Cheers,
StickShaker
 
tortugamon
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:11 pm

Quoting seahawk (Reply 2):

Technically the end of the decade is December 31, 2020.

tortugamon
 
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EPA001
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:53 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 9):
Technically the end of the decade is December 31, 2020.

A sharp and correct observation. Many people think this decade ends on 31.12.2019, but that is not true. 31.12.2020 is the correct date.  Wink.

Quoting seahawk (Reply 2):
RR claims the advance engine line will be ready by the end of the decade - so EIS 2019 could be possible.

Well, but you need quite a long flight test program before the EIS. So there is still a lot unclear about this possible engine. No doubt it will come, but when and how exactly are still open questions.

[Edited 2014-03-20 06:54:18]
 
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seahawk
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 1:58 pm

As they talk about advance by 2020 and the next step by 2025, I think they will be probably quite advanced in the design phase. The next issue of the German Aero International magazine promises are lager feature about the future RR engine. So maybe it will gives us some clues.
 
deltaflyertoo
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 2:54 pm

Will this potential new A330NEO have range to do solid west coast of US to Asia flights? Would LH be potential customer to replace A346 on Munich to Los Angeles/San Francisco?
 
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seabosdca
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:03 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 5):
I think the point that needs to be brought out here is that, whether the airlines/lessors are really interested in the A330NEO, or are looking for some airbus leverage vs the 787, the fact is that they now seem to see the A330NEO as the answer in both cases.

I don't hear a growing clamour for an optimisation of the A350-800 and I hear no customer at all saying "Please don't change it"

   The A330neo would be optimized for a whole lot of real-world flights. The A350-800 as it stands today is optimized for a tiny handful of them. And after seeing the 787-3 and Airbus's A350-900 Regional proposal I think buyers are convinced that it's Really Hard to re-optimize a ULH aircraft to do well on short missions.

Quoting deltaflyertoo (Reply 14):
Will this potential new A330NEO have range to do solid west coast of US to Asia flights? Would LH be potential customer to replace A346 on Munich to Los Angeles/San Francisco?

The existing A330 can already do US west coast to Tokyo or Seoul solidly. If the A330neo is a minimum change derivative, its better fuel burn would likely allow it to pick up a few more East Asian destinations. But I think Airbus might trade some of that range for a bit lower OEW if it had the choice, to further separate the A330neo from the A350-900.
 
packsonflight
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 5):
It is seems very clear that the customers, from their perspective, see the A330NEO as Airbus's most appropriate response.
Airbus need to see the same thing though (and I can't really see any reason why they shouldn't)

If Airbus elects to keep the door open for the 350-1100, dropping the 800 is a smart move in order not to max out the capability of the whole 350 production line, which is around 13 items per month. Specially if they can develop the 330NEO for the same amount of money they would spend developing the 800.

The cherry on top is the leverage they would gain over the three engine makers when they start bidding for exclusivity on the 330NEO
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 4:41 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 1):
The 330Neo position seems to be firstly whether to do it or not and secondly the degree of updated engine technology required to make the aircraft sufficiently competitive.

I also think each engine OEM has different criteria since I am sure this will be a sole-source contract.

I don't see GE being interested in an all-new engine. I expect they're proposal is based on the GEnx2B (essentially resurrecting the GEnx1A for the original A350) that they can bring to market with "minimal" risk and cost.

RR, om the other hand, has to develop a new engine because they don't have a bleed-air version of the Trent 1000 family and the Trent XWB is too large for the role. They're also the dominant supplier on the current program so they have an incentive to do more to maintain that position (they also can draw on financial support from the UK to develop that new engine).

I don't see P&W being in this fight. They're still working on the PW1000 series of GTFs and I don't see them having the resources (financial and practical) to launch a new engine family with over twice the thrust. I see them more concentrating on ensuring a smooth EIS for the PW1000 series and scale it to support the largest models of NSA/NRA (the "757 replacement").
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:08 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
They're still working on the PW1000 series of GTFs and I don't see them having the resources (financial and practical) to launch a new engine family with over twice the thrust.

The bulk of the engineering is done for the PW1000 series. The C series is up and running and the A320neo variant is in final build according to an article I read a few weeks ago. The main issue for Pratt is that there is no other new platform being considered till the NSA so its A330neo or nothing. I think they are making a serious run to get onto the A330neo but I'm not sure if Airbus likes the risk that comes with their proposal.
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:51 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 15):
I think they are making a serious run to get onto the A330neo but I'm not sure if Airbus likes the risk that comes with their proposal.

Then again, the A330 might be the program to "risk". If P&W can develop a "PW2000" in the 70-80,000 pound thrust range, they not only get a great engine for the A330, they could also get one for the A380. And the easiest way for Airbus to deal with choosing RR or EA on the A380neo could be to kick both to the curb and move forward with PW.

And if PW fails and the "PW2000" becomes another PW8000 (SuperFan), then the A330 is already going the way of the A340, so they soldier forward with what they have (stands to reason RR would develop a Trent 700EP3 PiP).
 
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seahawk
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 6:53 pm

Pratt wil be in the running, as by 2025 they won´t have the only GTF in the market, as the UltraFan concept by RR is designed as a GTF and aimed for a EIS of 2025.

The RR Advance concept is aiming for the end of the decade and aiming to be 20% more efficient as 1st gen. Trent engines. UltraFan would add another 5%.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:05 pm

Would it be prudent for Airbus to optimise a wing/engine combo for the A350-800/(possible)700 so that the 'family' can stretch from 250 seats up to ~375 in the A350-1000?

From my perspective the investment in the A350 line would be more beneficial than in extending the life of a previous generation aircraft, good though she may be.
 
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IslandRob
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:14 pm

Quoting astuteman (Reply 4):
Suffice to say, that pointing at the huge MOU's from those ME airlines that were always going to place mega orders for the 777X as being in some way reflective of the A350-1000's long term prospects, or lack of, is, frankly, infantile.
(As is dismissing the 777X as an "ME3 special" on the flip side).

A refreshingly (and surprisingly) fair observation, although I don't think the second sentence should be parenthesized as it is equally valid and applicable.

Wish this type of objective analysis of the A v. B lineups was more pervasive on anet. Thanks and regards. -ir
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:17 pm

Quoting Prost (Reply 18):
From my perspective the investment in the A350 line would be more beneficial than in extending the life of a previous generation aircraft, good though she may be.

On the flip side, the A330neo and A350 together could produce 20+ jets per month while one program alone will never be able to achieve such production rate.
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
mayohoo
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:12 pm

We can speculate all we want, but I am guessing that the total Business case for a 330NEO may not be as solid as Airbus would like. The 350-800 is not popular, so it seems to be 330NEO versus doing nothing (at least according to Anet wisdom). I am not sure if the Resource outlay (engineering etc) makes sense for them as the 350 program is the main target followed by production ramp up. A 330 NEO may buy 8-10 years? but the 787 will eventually blow through its back log and be offered in a timely fashion by 2020 or so (presuming Boeing gets its act together?). So why not keep selling the 330 as is as long as it lasts (2020?) and place your chips on a 320 replacement by 2027 (8 year lead time) or a fresh 330 CFRP?
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 8:42 pm

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
A 330 NEO may buy 8-10 years?

Something like that.

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
but the 787 will eventually blow through its back log and be offered in a timely fashion by 2020 or so

In the last 10 years, about 1800 787 and A330 jets have been sold in the 250-300 seat market (around 900 each). The forecast for the next 20 years is 4000+ jets, i.e. another 2000 per decade.

Unless Boeing ramps 787-8 and 787-9 production up to 200 jets annually (-10 not included), they will never be able to meet demand. This market segment is big enough for both manufactures.

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
or a fresh 330 CFRP

Although Airbus managed to sell about the same numbers of A330s as 787-8/9s in the last 10 years, they will have nothing to offer in the next decade when the A330 replacement market kicks in. The A350-800 will be dead by then, and many customers are seeing the -900 and -1000 as A340/777 replacement.

Without new or updated product offering from 2020, all sales in the 250-300 seat market between 2020 and 2030 will go to Boeing. And Airbus can never have a clean-sheet A330 replacement ready by 2020.

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 21):
320 replacement

The A320 replacement will be developed simultaneously with the wide-body programs.
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
astuteman
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 9:19 pm

Quoting IslandRob (Reply 19):
A refreshingly (and surprisingly) fair observation, although I don't think the second sentence should be parenthesized as it is equally valid and applicable.

A fair comment ...

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
On the flip side, the A330neo and A350 together could produce 20 jets per month while one program alone will never be able to achieve such production rate.

The prime reason for doing the NEO in my opinion, whilst also freeing up the entire A350 range and production line to focus on the bigger, more valuable jets.

rgds
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Thu Mar 20, 2014 10:10 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 20):
On the flip side, the A330neo and A350 together could produce 20+ jets per month while one program alone will never be able to achieve such production rate.

I'm with CIT in that I don't see the A330neo being able to maintain a 10-unit per month delivery rate. I expect it will be more along the lines of 4-5.

Still, that's 4-5 planes a month on a fully amortized production line...
 
RickNRoll
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:32 am

Quoting Revelation post 248:
The whole reason the 777-9X has massive orders before EIS is due to the shortcomings of the A350-1000...


The A350-1000 and 777-9X are two different market segments.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:27 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
I'm with CIT in that I don't see the A330neo being able to maintain a 10-unit per month delivery rate. I expect it will be more along the lines of 4-5.

Still, that's 4-5 planes a month on a fully amortized production line...

Running the A350 at 14 per month and the A330neo at 6 per month is what I had in mind (20 together).
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
fraport
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:40 am

Maybe we have to rename the thread into "A330 NEO bekoming LESS likely".
German aero.de reports that Airbus seems less bullish than anticipated by the aviation world.
"There's a lot of talking about an A330 NEO - just not in Toulouse", Airbus Manager Andy Shankland is quoted.
Also a Lufthansa insider is quoted that they are not very confident a re-engining would make sense.
Source in German: http://www.aero.de/news-19253/Airbus-A330neo.html
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 8:42 am

the best argument for the NEO is that they could go without the A358, which could allow them to add a A350-1100 if they want or see a place for it.
 
panais
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 10:19 am

Quoting seahawk (Reply 28):
the best argument for the NEO is that they could go without the A358, which could allow them to add a A350-1100 if they want or see a place for it.

The A350-900 with the A350-800 engines might be the new A333.
 
JerseyFlyer
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 12:11 pm

Quoting panais (Reply 29):
The A350-900 with the A350-800 engines might be the new A333.

It will be the already-announced A350 Regional which will sit above the A333 neo, especially if fitted with 10x Y as Air Asia intend to do.
 
parapente
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 1:20 pm

reply 26
Running the A350 at 14 per month and the A330neo at 6 per month is what I had in mind (20 together).

Which is what it's all about.
1.Can the existing aircraft (with or without blended winglets) sell 80 copies a year after 2018?

If they think it can then they will not develop the NEO - obviously.

2.If they think that they can (sell 80 a year) but only with a NEO package then they will develop it- obviously

If they don't think it (NEO) will work - well then they are stuck!

So they will have had intense discussions with their huge range of 330 clients and by now will have an answer of some sort.

As for which engine (assuming the answer is NEO) it will all depend on costs/ timing IMHO. If they ahve to go at the earliest opportunity (2018) - and lowest cost then I would have thought it must be the existing Genx2B. If they can hang on to 2020 then the RR Select has to be the best bet ( and will pair up with the RR A380 NEO offering).

Of course they may surprise us all. They may go for a 2 stage solution. Offering Blended Winglets and a 'thinner wall' 9 abreast offering in 2018 to be followed by the NEO option in 2020 . Guess we will hear at Farnbrough.
 
mayohoo
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:03 pm

Well, maybe a dumb question but would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines? Would that plus the cost advantage be enough to be competitive with the 787?

I still think the best long term solution for Airbus would be to optimize a 350-800 with entry delayed to 2020...that would be competitive for decades rather than working from behind.
 
tortugamon
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:05 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 31):
If they can hang on to 2020 then the RR Select has to be the best bet ( and will pair up with the RR A380 NEO offering).

Tom (head engineer) said that the same engine should not be used for both the A330neo and the A380neo. I still do not understand why.

Quoting parapente (Reply 31):
Offering Blended Winglets and a 'thinner wall' 9 abreast offering in 2018 to be followed by the NEO option in 2020

Now that would violate their 18" seat policy unless these widebodies would only be fore short-haul.

tortugamon
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:13 pm

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
Well, maybe a dumb question but would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines?

Yes they could.



Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
Would that plus the cost advantage be enough to be competitive with the 787?

It would improve it's competitive position against the 787...

...but would also improve it's competitive position against the A350...
 
mayohoo
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:24 pm

Good point.

What the heck, optimize the 350-800, rewing and rengine the 330. There, I have infinite power and resources. Good plan   
 
RickNRoll
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:11 pm

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
Well, maybe a dumb question but would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines? Would that plus the cost advantage be enough to be competitive with the 787?

The 777X didn't do that and stay competitive with the A350, it did that and it moved up to a new market segment. They didn't try to take on the A350 directly. Which is often what this game is all about, finding a gap or a segment that you can fill better than the other guy.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Fri Mar 21, 2014 9:19 pm

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines? Would that plus the cost advantage be enough to be competitive with the 787?

That worked for the 777 for two reasons: 1) the extra capacity Boeing was able to add, and 2) the wing extension, which made up for the fact that the current 777's wings are just too short. The 777X is still substantially heavier than the A350, and without the extra capacity it wouldn't be competitive on a seat-mile basis. (See the 777-8X -- similar capacity to the A350-1000 but heavier, and widely acknowledged to be at a disadvantage except on ULH.)

Especially now that the 787-10 is official, I don't think you can stretch an A330 enough to give it enough extra capacity to make up for its weight disadvantage, and there certainly isn't as much advantage to be had in re-winging the A330 as there was for the 777. The only hope for the A330neo other than raw pricing power (which Airbus already enjoys with the A330ceo) is an engine that is substantially better than those on the 787. And this is why Airbus is hesitant.

[Edited 2014-03-21 14:19:56]
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:11 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 37):
The only hope for the A330neo other than raw pricing power (which Airbus already enjoys with the A330ceo) is an engine that is substantially better than those on the 787. And this is why Airbus is hesitant.

As they should be, because Advances (pardon the pun) in engine technology will certainly migrate to the 787 either by PIPs or re-engining, so 787 won't be standing still over the time needed to pay back the A330neo investment. It's a really tricky market to capture without exposing yourself to a lot of risk.
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
JerseyFlyer
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:39 pm

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines?

Possible - yes. But why? If they are prepared to invest in a new wing, they would be better mating it to a shortened A350 fuselage.
 
brindabella
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 8:50 am

Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 39):
Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330? Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines?

Possible - yes. But why? If they are prepared to invest in a new wing, they would be better mating it to a shortened A350 fuselage.

 

Hmm, a firm "maybe" to that.
Better product?   
Better for long term?   
But loses advantage of existing industrialisation as well as competing for (already precious) A350 production slots.
 
Such a fascinating conundrum; now, if only they had said "damn it", and launched it back in 2004 or whatever ...

cheers Bill
Billy
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:53 am

Quoting brindabella (Reply 40):
But loses advantage of existing industrialisation as well as competing for (already precious) A350 production slots.

Would it be cost effective to convert part of the 330 FAL to 350 FAL to ramp up production of the 350 to 20-25 units per month. I understand other suppliers would also need to increase production of their parts of the process, but how much of a hurdle would any of this be?
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:02 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 38):
Quoting seabosdca (Reply 37):The only hope for the A330neo other than raw pricing power (which Airbus already enjoys with the A330ceo) is an engine that is substantially better than those on the 787. And this is why Airbus is hesitant.
As they should be, because Advances (pardon the pun) in engine technology will certainly migrate to the 787 either by PIPs or re-engining, so 787 won't be standing still over the time needed to pay back the A330neo investment.

Others are very convinced that this won't happen with 777X engine technology...
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:24 am

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 41):

I believe one of the primary bottle knocks is the UK wing fabrication facility that is based upon 14/month. I understand further expansion may be very expensive.

tortugamon
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:42 am

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
Keep the fuselage and change the wing and engines?

The 777X needs a bigger wing than the A350. Not only increased wing span, wing area will be larger as well. The A330 wing however is already larger than the 787, the only benefit would be weight reduction and a few aerodynamic tweaks. I don't think it's worth the investment.
Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:51 am

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 44):

I am surprised to read the a330 wing is larger than the 787. 787 has more of a swept back angle (faster aircraft) but it does have a higher aspect ratio. Interesting.

tortugamon
 
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Stitch
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:25 pm

Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 41):
Would it be cost effective to convert part of the 330 FAL to 350 FAL to ramp up production of the 350 to 20-25 units per month. I understand other suppliers would also need to increase production of their parts of the process, but how much of a hurdle would any of this be?

Probably significant.

And Airbus would not want to ramp that high because I doubt there is a market for that many A350s a month and if there was, it would be due to a massive aircraft bubble and as soon as it crashes, Airbus and their suppliers would have massive unused capacity that would be a serious financial anchor.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Tue Mar 25, 2014 1:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
Quoting ncfc99 (Reply 41):
Would it be cost effective to convert part of the 330 FAL to 350 FAL to ramp up production of the 350 to 20-25 units per month. I understand other suppliers would also need to increase production of their parts of the process, but how much of a hurdle would any of this be?

Probably significant.

And Airbus would not want to ramp that high because I doubt there is a market for that many A350s a month and if there was, it would be due to a massive aircraft bubble and as soon as it crashes, Airbus and their suppliers would have massive unused capacity that would be a serious financial anchor.




Two out of three?
Fail mark where the usual standard of analyses by Stitch is concerned!

  

But a bit more seriously, the 3 main reasons:
1. Will the market absorb so much product?   
2. Can the supply-chain perform?   
3. But also the other (main) point is that Airbus' strategy must include leveraging their current assets as far as they can be exploited. The existing A330 is a testament to the superb judgement of the original A300 designers
It is imperative that Airbus squeeze every little bit from this asset.   
++

cheers Bill

++ the other (lesser) point us that it is better for Airbus that it's own products for an harmonious range. & do not compete against each other
Billy
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Tue Mar 25, 2014 8:02 am

Quoting Mayohoo (Reply 32):
Well, maybe a dumb question but would it be possible for Airbus to 777-x the A330?

What about 777-x the A350?

Keep the cross section and the technology, spend a new, smaller wing and create an optimized medium range 220 to 420 seat aircraft family.

Would certainly be more future proof.
 
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RE: A330 NEO Becoming More Likely Part 6

Tue Mar 25, 2014 8:33 am

Quoting brindabella (Reply 47):
1. Will the market absorb so much product?   

The common consensus is that it will absorb 14 x A350 plus 8-10 x A330neo per month. I am suggesting 20-25 A350 plus 4-5 A330 per month as orders for it dry up. I am thinking of a long term option with no A330neo and an optimised 358 and a launched 3511. I am thinking in terms total wide bodies, not programs.

Quoting brindabella (Reply 47):
2. Can the supply-chain perform?   

Why can't it perform? If it needs some more expenditure to increase capacity, fair enough. The biggest question is weather the business case will take further expenditure. I also believe that if Airbus had not allowed for some easy increase in monthly rate in their planning, it would be poor forward planning.
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