SA7700
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MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:26 am

Due to length part 40 was locked for further contributions. Please feel free to continue your discussion in part 41:

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 1 (by Longhornmaniac Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 2 (by LipeGIG Mar 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 3 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 4 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 5 (by SA7700 Mar 8 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 6 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 7 (by SA7700 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 8 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 9 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 9 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 10 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 11 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 12 (by SA7700 Mar 10 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 13 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 14 (by SA7700 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 15 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 11 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 16 (by SA7700 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 17 (by 777ER Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 18 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 12 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 19 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 20 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 21 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 22 (by SA7700 Mar 13 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 23 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 24 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 25 (by SA7700 Mar 14 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 26 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 27 (by SA7700 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 28 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 15 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 29 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 30 (by SA7700 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 31 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 16 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 32 (by ManuCH Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 33 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 17 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 34 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 35 (by SA7700 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 36 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 37 (by SA7700 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 38 (by jetblueguy22 Mar 19 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 39 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)

MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 40 (by SA7700 Mar 20 2014 in Civil Aviation)


**********************************************************************************************

**** ADDITIONAL NEWS REPORTS ****

MH370: search for missing Malaysia Airlines plane extended to southern Indian Ocean

Najib's full press statement on MH370

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: What we know so far

MISSING MH370: Timeline

Flight MH370: Police focus on pilots as search for airliner goes on - live updates

Flight MH370: New timeline casts doubt on pilot deception theory

MISSING MH370: ACARS cannot be disabled

MISSING MH370: Search for missing aircraft above politics: Hishamuddin


***********************************************************************************************


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SA7700
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BlueShamu330s
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:33 am

Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

I have been using Stratfor to follow activity in the Indian Ocean to identify any movements connected to the SAR mission, but wondered if there are any alternatives.

Many thanks

Rgds
So I drive a 4x4. So what?! Tax the a$$ off me for it...oh, you already have... :-(
 
GZed
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:37 am

Quoting B777fan (Reply 229):
Quoting GZed (Reply 213):Correct me if I'm wrong, but those drawings only represent the final ping from the engines.
Not bad but not quite right. Yes the last ping could have taken place anywhere on those two arcs. rcair1 has been publishing the collected info...


Thank you. I've read through rcair1's latest sanity check, so I'm up to speed on the facts.

SATCOM only received a ping once per hour after ACARS was turned off. That means that there were 7 pings received by the SATCOM system (hourly from 2:11am to 8:11am). Each of these pings will tell us the distance from the satellite at that moment, and its crucial information.

I believe that the arcs or "corridors" that we see in the media have been drawn based on the last ping only, because if all 7 pings show basically the same distance then this suggests that plane flew in a perfect gentle turn along that red line, or that it flew in a tight circle for 7 hours, or a combination of the two. This doesn't sound likely so I believe we are being given one ping distance. Either the first one or the last one.

Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:43 am

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):

I believe that the arcs or "corridors" that we see in the media have been drawn based on the last ping only, because if all 7 pings show basically the same distance then this suggests that plane flew in a perfect gentle turn along that red line, or that it flew in a tight circle for 7 hours, or a combination of the two. This doesn't sound likely so I believe we are being given one ping distance. Either the first one or the last one.

Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

Why do they need to release it that would just cause more confusion than already exists...

The plane started out at the last radar contact as the sat pings showed and as time went on it went towards the last ping. With the known primary radar data the initial ping is basically exactly known as it is using secondary data. But every ping towards the last is going to just draw two huge wedges which I like to call a cake slice which isn't going to help at all as they tell you nothing about the flight path. The last ping locations include the first and all in between coupled with the known fuel quantities and performance parameters of the plane. The size of the last ping area covers every possible flight path from the start to the end.

Releasing a picture with two huge wedges is going to make people think that the plane could be somewhere inside the wedge when that is not true and only the last ping is relevant to the search.

Edit: Also if your subscribing to some crazy theories if the plane crossed into POR or AOR-E sat coverage it would have been seen as well.

[Edited 2014-03-20 21:44:26]
 
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7BOEING7
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:49 am

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage -- it may help in determining what went on during the flight but that is for later, after we find the plane and the black boxes.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:55 am

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
Given it appears that it was at most 2 minute between signoff and the transponder going dark I cannot imagine a situation where you would turn off the transponder that quickly from a normal flight situation.

This line of thinking is too cockpit-centric. There are avionics boxes and wiring harnesses running all over the aircraft, and the root cause of the transponder going dark may not necessarily be found in the cockpit. It's a complex system, and it may fail in non-obvious ways. Besides, 2 minutes is a long time for an oxygen-accelerated fire to develop, such as was observed in the Cairo 777 fire.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
This would kill the autopilot as well if memory serves right. (or at least the ability to fly between waypoints).

It may still be possible for a 777 to fly itself for hours with neither autopilot nor pilot.

Quoting MSY-MSP (Reply 271):
Every mechanical theory falls apart once you add the timeline into it.

I'm not sure we can be that categorical just yet. For this very reason, I think search and recovery of the wreckage will be an intense multi-year effort of the same magnitude as AF 447.
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 4:56 am

I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:04 am

Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):
The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage

I tend to agree, but not fully. While I would love to see the data from the previous pings - It is the last ping that defines the last recorded position of the a/c. However, it is possible the previous ping may lend credence to a particular path or route - It is possible the NTSB did something like that to tell the Australians where to focus - but it could be other factors such as elimination of radar coverage areas.

I suspect that data will be in a final report if we ever get one - but right now the focus is on the place where the a/c was last - and that is defined by the last ping.

-rcair1
rcair1
 
rj777
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:05 am

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 6):
I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances

As I was saying toward the end of the last part, he believes the plane LANDED in Pakistan, and he won't say who hus sources are because something about the witness protection program. I seriously doubt this guy's credibility.
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:05 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 5):
It may still be possible for a 777 to fly itself for hours with neither autopilot nor pilot.

How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?
 
SA7700
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:07 am

Good morning ladies and gents,

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LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:16 am

I just read in an online manual at Smartcockpit, that turning off the IFE also turns off the surveillance cameras, including the cockpit entry camera system.

Just wondering about that in relation to a hijacker turning off the IFE to prevent the pax from seeing the moving map display.

Seems like they'd want those cameras working.
 
GZed
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:18 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 3):
The last ping locations include the first and all in between coupled with the known fuel quantities and performance parameters of the plane.

That's completely untrue and makes me think you don't understand what the SATCOM ping tells us. Each ping simply tells us a distance between the plane and the satellite.

If the plane flew a straight line from the last primary radar contact to its final resting place then each ping will show a different distance to the satellite. In fact the pings could easy prove or disprove the fact that it flew in a straight line, because these distances along a straight line are easy to calculate.

If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.
 
rcair1
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:25 am

I just watched a short interview of the Senior VP (Chris Mclaughlin) from Inmarsat. He was knowledgeable, informative and very careful to talk only about what he knew. The interviewer kept trying to get him to comment on various things he would not know about - to try to get some 'soundbyte' He handled it very well - sticking to the facts he knew and deflecting ones where he would not know (Could systems on the Boeing fail in a way that would cause....? - "I'm not an expert on those systems so I really cannot say)

He was very clear and quite good - gave you the sense of a company that was really doing the right thing.

He did identify the Inmarsat box as a "Classic Aero" set - which is consistent with the Inmarsat -3 network, not the more advanced and newer -4 network reported as being ordered on newer MH Boeing 737's.

He also said the 'network polls the aircraft' - so it sounds like the network initiates the communication and the aircraft responds. I believe this type of communication is most supportive of a 'time of flight' type distance measurement - but to be very clear - he did not discuss the technical details of how they determined the loci of possible locations.
It was clear, however, that this was something the had to 'noodle' on a develop - not something they had in the can. It took 2-3 days for them to figure it out.

In all - he was very credible and I do not believe this was somebody 'hiding' something - like "we know more about where the aircraft is than we are saying."

-rcair1
rcair1
 
GZed
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:30 am

Quoting rcair1 (Reply 7):
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 4):The only ping that matters is the last PING, we may care where the plane might have been in the interim but it is of no help in finding the wreckage
I tend to agree, but not fully. While I would love to see the data from the previous pings - It is the last ping that defines the last recorded position of the a/c. However, it is possible the previous ping may lend credence to a particular path or route - It is possible the NTSB did something like that to tell the Australians where to focus - but it could be other factors such as elimination of radar coverage areas.

I suspect that data will be in a final report if we ever get one - but right now the focus is on the place where the a/c was last - and that is defined by the last ping.

-rcair1

...but the last ping in no way tells you location of the aircraft - Only the distance from the satellite. The plane literally could be anywhere along those published arc's.

The earlier ping distances are the only thing we have to help narrow down the possible location.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:31 am

Quoting blueshamu330s (Reply 1):
Is there anywhere online which gives reliable data on the whereabouts of the US naval fleet?

That is pretty hush hush. I doubt if that information is out on the web. You can have a general idea of which ships are out on deployment but the actual locations of them isn't thrown out there

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 6):
I think FWFs source is a retired general who is making a lot of tv appearances.

I get the impression it's one pompous loudmouth saying things to another pompous loudmouth and out comes his tweets. I'm sure the "insider" has been blabbing to the media as well, which is why FWF says things earlier than the media picks up with them, but excuse me if I'm skeptical of "insider sources." If anything, a.net has taught me to doubt rumors from these unnamed entities because they're often full of it
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
seb146
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:48 am

Quoting GZed (Reply 2):
Why haven't they released these 7 ping distances? This the most important information available as to the planes whereabouts.

If the last ping was 15,000 miles distance from the satellite, that is a lot of ground to cover! Not only that, but it *MAY* have gone farther than that.

My question is on radar. Wouldn't some military somewhere had some question about an unknown blip? I get that military installations don't want to reveal how much information they can gather. But, if a 777 flew over India and far western China, don't you think they would have scrambled a few fighters to figure out what the heck was going on? Even off Australia, that is not a normal flight path, is it? Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something? I know the military can't say much, so my questions are worthless, but I still have to ask.
Life in the wall is a drag.
 
flyingturtle
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:50 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster

This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid

It has happened in total loss of the controls, and so the pilots had to use the engines to control speed, and by extension, vertical speed in order to land. Sink rate too high? Apply more thrust!

The landing will be nerve-wrecking, though.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?

This is also taken care of. You don't have controlled flight anymore, but yes - you won't crash in the short and medium term.


David

[Edited 2014-03-20 22:52:49]
Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:52 am

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
That's completely untrue and makes me think you don't understand what the SATCOM ping tells us. Each ping simply tells us a distance between the plane and the satellite.

Your not reading my statements. I said the last ping includes the first ping with the primary radar data (a point due to the radar data) and the fuel quantity which is obviously not embedded in an inmarsat keep alive message is used to determine the maximum possible locations along the large circle the last ping provides. (it is the exact opposite of completely untrue.)

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the plane flew a straight line from the last primary radar contact to its final resting place then each ping will show a different distance to the satellite. In fact the pings could easy prove or disprove the fact that it flew in a straight line, because these distances along a straight line are easy to calculate.

The pings are not very accurate they do not tell you the flight path. The last ping arc includes the min/max possible flight paths to the area defined by the large circle. There is not enough accuracy to draw a flight path (it will just draw a big rounded wedge there is no other way). It would not prove how direct or indirect a path it took as it must have ended within the final arc for the signal to be recieved there. No matter the route's actual it got to the endpoint somehow. If it did crazy circles and then did a b-line to the minimum point that is possible but it would still be hard to tell exactly what was happening as without primary radar data the estimates are not accurate.

Quoting GZed (Reply 12):
If the distances at each hourly ping do not match the "straight line" theory then we know the aircraft made addition course changes, and we would know that it turned towards the satellite or away from it. Additionally we would know how significant the course change was based on the amount of deviation away or towards, since the last ping.

Any significant course change reduces the maximum final distance away from the point of origin, so this is very important information.

You do not seem to understand what the ping's provide. The last ping makes a definite bound on where the plane could be. If you made a path so insane and non-linear and outside the big fat rounded cake slice there would be no way to reach the known last ping. (You would run out of fuel before you could reach the area defined by the arcs, and that would be a non-real result as we know it did reach the circle defined by the last ping)

The plane must have ended in the large circle if you took an insane route you would run out of jet-a before you reached the circle there is no other way around it. The other pings would only draw a big wedge (Which we could easily) with rounded edges so that it fully defines every path to the end circle. There is a hard limit on how far the plane could deviate off a purely linear path and still end in the final ping area. (The sat ping's resolution is horrible so it would not tell you if the plane turned or not it would just say it was in this huge area or not, and if it did cross the circles back and forth it would have to end up near the slowest/shortest linear path area which is furthest away from the conspiracy theories)

Quoting GZed (Reply 14):
...but the last ping in no way tells you location of the aircraft - Only the distance from the satellite. The plane literally could be anywhere along those published arc's.

The earlier ping distances are the only thing we have to help narrow down the possible location.

It tells you the plane could be here. The early pings won't provide the resolution to be able to easily exclude parts of the arc. The fuel load narrows down the flight path and the linear assumption is a fairly reasonable one in that all your stating is that if the plane didn't fly linearly the short close paths are the most probable areas. (These would end in populated areas with radar coverage)

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:00:17]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:03:35]

Basically to reach the furthest point it must have traveled in a mostly linear path and for a close point it could have travelled increasingly convoluted paths except that there isn't much resolution to the sat distance measure as the system was never intended to do this type of measurement so it would be difficult to resolve.


[Edited 2014-03-20 23:09:14]

I also watched the inmarsat interview and got this bit out of them (it was inmarsat that built the estimate so they obviously know where each ping is)(Inmarsat (sun/mon) used sat signal from network diagnostics. (Basic sum) arcs by tuesday.)

By assumption which may or may not be correct is that to build the estimate for the last position they used the previous pings to build confidence and refine the final estimate which means they would have already checked to see if it was doing strange and massive non-linear deviations so large that the sat could see that.

Interview is here, http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/03/20...-could-help-find-malaysia-airliner


[Edited 2014-03-20 23:31:27]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:34:24]
 
NotAPilotYet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:53 am

Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

Command suicide, no. Even if you want to take out masses, this isn't way to do it. And the first person that tells me that suicide makes perfect sense, kill me now. Go ahead... make it make sense.

yikes - that came off a little bitchy
 
LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:56 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):

Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?
 
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Mortyman
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:58 am

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

Command suicide, no. Even if you want to take out masses, this isn't way to do it. And the first person that tells me that suicide makes perfect sense, kill me now. Go ahead... make it make sense.

yikes - that came off a little bitchy

It has happen before that pilots have comitted suicide and taking pasengers with them. This has happend more than once too. It's a fact that we can't look away from.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 5:58 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster

This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid

(Most) planes are designed to be stable in pitch so this would work, but only in pitch.

It would not work for roll in most aircraft. Most planes are not stable in roll once you get past a certain angle. If you put a light plane into a 45 degree bank, it would keep banking until it ended up in a spiral descent.

In swept wing airliners, the designers strike a balance between Dutch Roll and Spiral Divergence. More of one means less of the other and vice versa. Dutch Roll is countered with yaw dampers but Spiral Divergence is not really a worry because it is easily countered by pilot or autopilot inputs. So the plane can diverge. If it couldn't diverge it would be too stable for easy maneuver.

However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

If we assume the last control inputs left the plane straight and level, the control system would keep it stable until the fuel ran out or until it hit something.

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):

Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

Most aircraft are both statically and dynamically stable in pitch, meaning pitch oscillations will damp out automatically. This is typically demonstrated in the first flying lesson you ever take. The instructor will pull back on the yoke and let go, then sit back and wait while the plane stabilizes.

If the plane is mis-trimmed it will start climbing or descending, but oscillations will still be damped out.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:00:38]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:01:22]

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:03:30]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
lucaspithan
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:00 am

Quoting seb146 (Reply 16):
My question is on radar. Wouldn't some military somewhere had some question about an unknown blip? I get that military installations don't want to reveal how much information they can gather. But, if a 777 flew over India and far western China, don't you think they would have scrambled a few fighters to figure out what the heck was going on? Even off Australia, that is not a normal flight path, is it? Wouldn't someone in the Australian military have noticed an unidentified "blip" on their screen and said something? I know the military can't say much, so my questions are worthless, but I still have to ask.

This answer lots of things. For me is clear that the plane did not enter the air space of China, India and Pakistan. These countries owns efficient security systems and (especially India and Pakistan) they are in permanent alert due to historical disputes.

I can't imagine a triple seven going in their air space without being noticed unless it was flying very low, what would require a very skillful pilot and a very lucky day for him.
 
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DeltaMD90
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:03 am

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):

Wow, that expert analysis really convinced me  

Just as we have inconclusive evidence to say it was a suicide, I believe we don't have enough evidence to say it wasn't a suicide
Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:05 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):
Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

I can't think of an example where this happened for hours, because... pilots want to fly the plane. But phugoid cycles are taught to any student pilots, and with a fix thrust and a decreasing fuel load, this *would* readily go on for hours. Until the fuel runs out.

The Helios flight may be an example, but I'm not sure.

In the Payne Stewart incident, the aircraft climbed in the long term, which is consistent with decreasing fuel weight, switched-off autopilot, and a phugoid cycle.


David
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:07 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 25):
But phugoid cycles are taught to any student pilots, and with a fix thrust and a decreasing fuel load, this *would* readily go on for hours. Until the fuel runs out.

Actually the oscillations would tend to damp out given dynamic longitudinal stability. But of course if the cycle is big, say two thousand meters from top to bottom, it would take a long time.

If aircraft did not have dynamic longitudinal stability, the oscillations would tend to increase, and that's bad Feng Shui.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:07:39]
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AR385
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:08 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):
However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge or diverge.

It also has assymetric thrust automatic compensation, so, when it ran out of fuel and if one engine cut earlier than the other, it would have still have kept flying straight and level. On autopilot, that is.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:08 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thank you for giving a much more precise answer!

I didn't know it the oscillations would automatically dampen, but now I thought about it again...


David
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antskip
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:09 am

A fleet of Chinese ships are on their way south to the suspected debris area, including the rescue ships Haixun 01 and 31 and Nanhaijiu 101 and 115. They are around 5 days away. The ice-breaking research vessel Xue Long (Snow Dragon), with her 2 helicopters, has already set sail from Fremantle, only 2 days away. These ships will be a very considerable addition to the present search/rescue force.
http://www.news24.com/World/News/Chi...hips-to-plane-search-area-20140321

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:24:47]
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:09 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 28):

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thank you for giving a much more precise answer!

I didn't know it the oscillations would automatically dampen, but now I thought about it again...

No worries. The EASA ATPL syllabus covers this stuff in mind-numbing detail. Glad it is coming to some sort of use! 
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LTC8K6
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:10 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):

Thanks. I knew that commercial airliners are required to be stable.

But many theories have a bad cockpit fire as the cause of the plane flying off by itself. Presumably that would affect the control systems.

Also, can you answer the question about fuel balancing? Is that done automatically? Or would it become a problem?
 
tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:14 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 31):
But many theories have a bad cockpit fire as the cause of the plane flying off by itself. Presumably that would affect the control systems.

The core of the flight control system would probably/hopefully be the last thing to fail on a fly by wire plane as without it you can't really fly the plane. These systems would have high redundancy, power diversity, physical diversity, ... as to be more survivable in a fire or other incident. Unfortunately humans are pretty fragile and if the oxygen system failed CO or just lack of oxygen would kill people pretty quick.
 
spacecadet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:15 am

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
This is also taken care of. You don't have controlled flight anymore, but yes - you won't crash in the short and medium term.

This is not true. The few times this has actually happened in the history of airliners (total loss of control due to hydraulic problems), the planes flew for less than an hour even with constant manual adjustments using the engines. They certainly did not fly "happily" and without that manual engine input, they would not have flown at all. In all cases, they continuously lost altitude - the phugoid effect is a one step forward, two steps back sort of effect. Ascend 1,000 feet, descend 2,000, that kind of thing.

There's just no possibility that this plane flew around for 7.5 hours completely on its own, with no manual input and no programmed auto-pilot and auto-thrust. It had one or the other. If it didn't, it probably wouldn't have lasted 20 minutes before succumbing fully to the phugoid effect and crashing. Maybe slightly longer if it was at fully level cruise when control was lost.

Edit: I'll just qualify this a *bit* by saying I'm talking about the scenario originally described - no pilot, no auto-trim, no auto-pilot, no auto-thrust, no nothing. Airliners are inherently stable but only when trimmed properly for altitude, thrust and weight. Obviously if you could even just set the trim properly you could probably fly a plane for a good long time with no other controls, and if you could use engine power you could fly it for a while without proper trim, although not indefinitely.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:27:24]
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nm2582
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:17 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 22):
However a 777 has FBW, so the control system would work to keep it in the attitude the pilots or autopilot left it. In a bank, it would keep banking, but it would maintain a constant bank angle which would neither converge nor diverge.

I'm going to ask a slightly absurd question so that I can understand what you're trying to communicate. I'm not a pilot - but I understand the theories of flight, and I have hand flown a few "traditional" manual control aircraft - a piper cub and a T6, to be exact.

So lets say you are flying along in a 777, straight and level, all autopilots off. The pilot puts the aircraft into a 30 degree bank. He or she then stands up and walks to the lav, leaving the pointy end empty for 10 minutes.

When he or she returns, is the aircraft still going to be in a 30 degree bank, at the same altitude it was left at?

I had thought that Boeing's FBW implementation was relatively direct - in that it would still act "more or less" like a traditional aircraft; and not an implementation which would hold pitch/bank unless the pilot inputs a change in pitch or bank on the yoke.

Perhaps I have misunderstood the Boeing FBW philosophy/implementation...
 
NotAPilotYet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:21 am

Wow, that expert analysis really convinced me

Just as we have inconclusive evidence to say it was a suicide, I believe we don't have enough evidence to say it wasn't a suicide

You're right - please refer to the noob reference above ... can I insert a cat pic instead?


I don't claim to know a damn thing about the event. I do know people (and not the CNN, BBC witch doctors). I did spend a lot of time reading the AF threads... you folks got it in 10 threads. That's why I'm here - you know things that I don't.
 
jelliesR
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:23 am

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please?

Let me ask a question, if he had flown the plane into the home of the president of Malaysia, would you consider it "suicide"? no. Right?

Now let me ask, what if what he has done will actually cause more indirect political damage than flying the plane into his house could ever do. Or what if he *thought* (I am not saying he is sane) it would do reputational damage.

I've never thought it was as simple as suicide for life insurance, or just can't cope anymore angst, but there are definitely more psychological dimensions. Pleading at a press conference to please leave out politics for the time being is nothing to do with straight suicide.
 
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:25 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 9):
How? I don't think the auto trim? and auto stability? can actually fly the plane.

What about fuel imbalance? Does it take care of that automatically?
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 17):
Yes, every plane will happily fly itself without pilot or autopilot. Also without trim...

Plane gets faster --> more lift --> aircraft gains altitude, it also slows down

Plane gets slower --> less lift --> aircraft descends, it also gets faster
This is called a phugoid cycle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid


B******T -- The 777 (or most any airplane) will end up in the ground if you take your hands off the yoke no matter how well it's trimmed before you let go. The "phugoid" stuff may work theoretically but not so much in real life. One of the customers doing an acceptance flight would do a roll angle vs time check so I've seen what happens many times. The airplane starts rolling left or right and probably if you let it go you will finally get to a little over 30 degrees and the bank angle protection will kick in and you'll just go around in circles.
 
NotAPilotYet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:34 am

Quoting jelliesR (Reply 36):

The psychological aspect for political reasons is something I can't dismiss - I don't know Malaysia. But from a suicide sense, it doesn't jibe. What you're proposing is political - mad man slams into a thing for a reason.

Unless we think that a mad man missed his target and flew widely off course, then turned around and aimed for a thing that he missed...

I'm sure Im missing something. I'm happy to go back to calculating hd space...
 
YoungMans
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:41 am

Quoting tomlee (Reply 18):
The plane must have landed in the large circle

If the 24 m & 5 m parts now being searched for are in fact off MH370, this question is completely irrelevant.
If they are not, then it may be a different matter.

Could the much-disgussed pings come from anything other than MH370?
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up mobile satellite communications equipment, with the necessary codes copied onto chips, whatever is required. This would then be for use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the mobile equipment had the correct codes and proper transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:48:54]
 
AR385
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:45 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 39):
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up appropriate satellite communications equipment, with codes copied onto necessary chips, whatever is necessary. For use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the equipment had the proper codes and correct transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

If this scenario is true. Then you also need to provide at the very least a conjecture of where the missing 777 is. Because if somebody went to the trouble to do all that you are suggesting, was obviously to lead people into believing the airplane crashed. So where do you think it is? and who do you think would have gone to such a huge effort to replicate the pings?
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:46 am

Quoting NotAPilotYet (Reply 19):
Hi folks - can we stop with the suicide theories now? Please? This is the one place where I have expertise, and this is not that. I've read the last 40 threads, I have learned the language, and I have even shut the effen up when I have a question.

There are three main theories:
1. Suicide
2. Hijacking
3. Mechanical failure (or fire etc.)

The suicide theory is by far the simplest available theory. It can neatly explain why the communications were shut down and why the plane apparently flew to the southern Indian Ocean in order to minimize the chances the plane ever to be found.

In the hijacking theories it is very difficult explain why for example ACARS communications were turned off or how there could be a massive multi-government cover-up.

In the mechanical failure (or fire etc.) it is very difficult to explain why there was no distress call (selective fire disabling just radios, transponder and ACARS but leaving the plane flyable is very implausible).

I would like to hear what is your best theory if you discount the suicide theory?
 
65mustang
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:46 am

With referencing the map posted by wxmedller in part 38 post 233, does anyone think that the NTSB based the gradual course to the right (as the plane flies) due to the coriolis effect? If so, this would indicate a due south course from the igrex waypoint and never deviating, wouldn't it?

http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/courses/gg101/coriolis/coriolis.html
 
aviators99
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:47 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 39):
Could the much-disgussed pings come from anything other than MH370?
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up appropriate satellite communications equipment, with codes copied onto necessary chips, whatever is necessary. For use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the equipment had the proper codes and correct transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

In theory, yes! But that would be a new level of criminal mastery that's been heretofore unheard of in all of history, as it would be an incredible amount of work for very very little gain.

Keep in mind that these pings were never meant to be used for distance measuring in the first place. It was a hack that someone figured out after the disappearance.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:51:10]
 
davidzill
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:48 am

So what's up with ACARS at this point, what do we know, and how does that pertain to where the investigation and search goes for now and how does it effect plausible theories? Also is there a clear indication that the transponder was manually turned off? Or is there the possibility that a fire in the nose gear well effected the avionics compartment with a loss of systems, so the pilot selected his pre-programmed takeoff alternate diversion airfield on Palau Island? And the fire in the wheel well is what the oil rig worker observed. In the process the fuselage skin was compromised resulting in loss of cabin pressurization, and the pilots who were doing 1000 tasks at once, lost consciousness quickly, whilst turning the heading indicator on the auto pilot mode control panel, and passed out once they where indicating a southern course on the heading indicator.
 
FlightShadow
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:49 am

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 20):
Any examples of such lasting for hours? Without humans suppressing the cycle?

I think that in the case of UA 232, the increasing rate of descent on short final which caused Denny Fitch to increase engine power just prior to landing was caused by the plane's phugoid cycle. That was after all of the turning, circling, and variation in engine thrust.

I'm not exactly sure how that incident might apply to a potential ghost 777, but perhaps there is some connection.
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tomlee
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:50 am

Quoting YoungMans (Reply 39):
Could the much-disgussed pings come from anything other than MH370?
In other words, could a good electronics technician set up appropriate satellite communications equipment, with codes copied onto necessary chips, whatever is necessary. For use from one location while the aircraft was flying somewhere else altogether.
The pings could then have come from anything ... a car, a parked aircraft or even from a person, provided the equipment had the proper codes and correct transmisson strength.
The 'satellite would think' it is talking to the aircraft, it wouldn't know any different.

If you goto that little link in the edits with the interview it is highly improbable that someone spoofed a inmarsat modem.

You would have to fake the modem identification which is unique just as your phone's baseband has unique IDs and various other hard coded numbers which are "very difficult" to change. Then you would have to fake a valid simcard while making a duplicate of an existing one. Your spoof device would have to duplicate both the modem and sim card perfectly to not be noticed and you would somehow have to kick the MH370 modem off the network without it leaving a trace while simultaneously getting onto the network with your spoof device without logging in normally. This would probably require hacking inmarsat's ground stations to pull it off which to say the least it outside the skill of a good electronics tech.

All of this would probably require stealing inmarsat's private keys which sign everything they make and that would be a huge security hole which isn't likely to exist and would open the door to stealing inmarsat services without paying for anything.

It would have been easier to steal the entire modem and simcard out the plane but one could imagine that being not so easy to do without being noticed. Then you would also have to fly or position the modem in the same pattern as we see today or have many spoofed modems.

Alternatively it would be even easier to go in and hack inmarsat's network logs but that too is not exactly easy to do or even possible if well designed.

Edit: Note inmarsat's private keys would not exist on the customer devices so it would require a lot more effort than you seem to be implying.

[Edited 2014-03-20 23:55:15]
 
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Finn350
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 6:51 am

Quoting 65mustang (Reply 42):
With referencing the map posted by wxmedller in part 38 post 233, does anyone think that the NTSB based the gradual course to the right (as the plane flies) due to the coriolis effect? If so, this would indicate a due south course from the igrex waypoint and never deviating, wouldn't it?

It might be a partial explanation. However, if it were a pure Coriolis effect the earth rotates 15 degrees (24 x 15 = 360) every hour under the plane, and the effect is not so large in the NTSB track. Apparently the two tracks represent two different speeds, and the Coriolis effect might explain the difference between the tracks (or else it is some uncertainty in the initial conditions etc.).
 
NotAPilotYet
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:01 am

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 41):
The suicide theory is by far the simplest available theory. It can neatly explain why the communications were shut down and why the plane apparently flew to the southern Indian Ocean in order to minimize the chances the plane ever to be found.

I understand that - and it makes sense from an engineering point. It just doesn't make sense from a psych point. Before I;m skewered here, let me type... or at least think aloud...

To take down a plane, the thing you love, the thing you spent a huge part of your life doing - to do that, what would it take? Tell me. Then tell me how you would hide it. Not the plane - the behavior?

I'm trying to figure this out like you are - I just have a different perspective.
 
Shmendr
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RE: MH370 Malaysia Airlines B772 Missing Enroute KUL-PEK Part 41

Fri Mar 21, 2014 7:04 am

A question about landing in Antarctica.

Assuming that MH370 will be found in the south Indian Ocean, it seems to me this will be the closest commercial airline accident, geographically, to the 1979 Air New Zealand 901 crash in Antarctica.

Question is, If MH370 had an additional 2-3hrs of fuel and flown much closer to Antarctica than Australia, would the P-3 / P-8 aircraft be able to land in Antarctica at this part of the year in order to conduct the operation?

Does anyone know where in Antarctica it would most likely have had to land?

thank you for the info in advance.