Eirules
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US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:19 am

I was wondering what peoples thoughts are on the routes currently flown by 757s to Europe by AA, DL and UA. How long more are the 757s going to operate these thinner routes for and what aircraft is likely to replace them in each of the airlines respective fleets?
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kaitak
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:42 am

Personally, I think it will be a combination of A321 Neos and 737-9Max models. The current 739ER could probably make it across to Ireland (and of course, nothing further east really matters, as you know   ), but I don't know why the likes of UA or DL haven't bitten on that option, even though both operate it. AA currently operates A321s transcon, so they could probably make SNN/BOS-JFK/DUB. Perhaps it's a question of the cost and feasibility of getting these aircraft ETOPS certified?
 
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OA260
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:47 am

Quoting EIRules (Thread starter):
How long more are the 757s

I hope they are around for a while. Would be sad to see them go. They have also served Ireland well when otherwise there would have been no route.
 
migair54
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:21 am

Some of the newest B757 are from 1999-2000 and 2001, so im sure they can easily fly for 10 more years if necessary.

The logic replacement must be the A321NEO, but I think airlines will wait a bit to see the real performance and some improvements before jumping to order them. We could also see some if the routes upgraded to B787 or B767.

How many B757 fly daily across the atlantic??
 
S75752
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:39 am

Oooh man the 757 TATL Hot topic rises again... One that I am personally passionate about as well.

My opinion;

Best scenario: 753-sized aircraft with 737-like controls and commonality(if possible?), made of carbon composites with a 50,000 minimum thrust per engine comes along with a 4,500 Mile real world range with headwinds (assuming the current 752's is about ~3500), also making it a replacement for a majority of 763 and non-ER 772 routes.

Worst scenario: The high yielding 752 routes (such as UA's EDI-EWR/ORD amongst others) are consolidated to 788/330 craft. The lower yielding ones are simply dropped and left to alliance partners on the European side, and it don't think it's very realistic to depend on the Neo/MAX range boost to bring it up to TATL capabilities compared to the existing craft. FI becomes the sole narrowbody TATL carrier (well, besides some others using YYT, which is pretty neat), using MAX's to reach more destinations in the northeastern US and Canada... If they don't end up just ditching or leasing those out like they did their 788's and 763's.

Based on what I have been told, the Best scenario is certainly just a dream. The worst scenario sounds most likely.
 
holzmann
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:40 am

I flew my first B752 TATL crossing about two week ago, LHR-IAD on UA123. Besides an engine fire that resulted in a 4 hour delay, I have to say the experience was overall more pleasant than say flying a A333/A343. Something about the A333/A343 that make me feel claustrophobic. The curvature of the sidewalls? The small windows? If I have to rank my TATL flights by AC type, from best to worst, it has to be... B748, B763/B764, B772, B752, A333, A343.
 
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par13del
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:42 am

Airbus wants those routes to be flown by A330's (any version) or A350's.
Boeing wants those routes to be flown by 787's (any version) or 777's.

The long range versions of the 737 and A321 (latest versions) do not have the range to match the 757, so since the 757 is sometimes constrained on some routes when the winds are not favorable imagine the effect on a/c with lower ranges and payload capacity.

If we call these "thin" routes marginal while operating with an a/c that is fully paid for and depreciated, imagine the effect if operated with a new frame with high purchase / lease cost. Routes will either be consolidated or dropped once the 757's go out of hours if no replacement is at hand, certainely I do not expect the market to wait for a replacement.
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airbazar
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:05 pm

US is one of the airlines openly pushing Airbus for a TATL capable A321NEO. So I think we know the answer to that question.
 
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par13del
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:13 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 7):
US is one of the airlines openly pushing Airbus for a TATL capable A321NEO.

The upcoming NEO still falls short in range and payload will always be lower, so when do we expect the next updated version or how long will it take to get the PIP's (if those are what is required) to get the a/c more capable of the TATL mission?
 
Eirules
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:15 pm

Quoting S75752 (Reply 4):

I don't think it's reasonable to think that thinner or lower yielding routes will simply be dropped and left to alliance partners. If I took that logic and looked at DUB this summer, then EWR-DUB, IAD-DUB UA, JFK-DUB AA and CLT-DUB US would all be dropped with no one taking on the routes as there is no alliance partner at DUB. I simply don't see all that capacity just being dropped
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S75752
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:37 pm

Quoting EIRules (Reply 9):

UA and EI do codeshore as partners. I'm almost surprised that EI hasn't joined *A! The IAD-DUB could be consolidated in to the EWR-DUB and upguaged anyways, as it overflies EWR. CLT-DUB could be consolidated to the PHL-DUB and upguaged as well. The issue becomes not so much losing the low yields...

But if there are no 752's to do those routes with left, then that'd mean a lot of empty seats on a 332 or 788.

Quoting par13del (Reply 6):
If we call these "thin" routes marginal while operating with an a/c that is fully paid for and depreciated, imagine the effect if operated with a new frame with high purchase / lease cost.

This is why a 752 replacement would need to be more efficient; so the margins can be better, and so it can also function as more than just a 752 replacement, but also as a 763 replacement. TATL is indeed a 3000-3700 mile niche it fills nicely, but just imagine how much more can be done with it if it extends its real world range to 4500 miles.
 
frostyj
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:38 pm

I live 2,500 nautical miles from Boston and 2,700 nautical miles from NYC.

The 737-900ER can easily fly here with a nautical mile range of 3,300. The United Airlines 737-900 aircraft have the same configuration as the 757's so for us on the island of Ireland I don't see the problem on replacing the 757.

I am sure some days it would be pushing it but being 600 nautical miles into the range there should not be a problem.

[Edited 2014-08-29 05:43:14]
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parapente
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:41 pm

WOW it must be at least a week since the last 757-200 and the A321NEO TATL debate. And hell it is a Friday - so here we go again!

As reply 4 said -Oooh man the 757 TATL Hot topic rises again...

Very soon you will see the post that tells you just how small % 757 TATL market is (so I won't spoil it).
And that the A321NEO with the geared fan just has not quite got the range.
But that they have just increased the power for the said engine -(and T/O weight?). Why?
So we don't really know.
Indeed another writer will tell you that
P&W are said to have another 5% 'in their pocket'.
Another will tell you that it depends what you mean by TATL ie from exactly where in the US to where in Europe.

Soon (ish) the A320 NEO will start its tests. Then perhaps Airbus will start to 'know' rather than computer predictions of what it can and can't do.
One thing is for certain. With the A321NEO selling the way it is already,Airbus ain't going to 'bust a gut' just to get this very small market. But if it can they most certainly will.

I think what is more interesting is the performance of the A321NEO in general. They have just upped its max pax capacity quite markedly. (240 plus pax?) .The 737-9 can't go there. They have this market to themselves for the mo'.
The next plane size leap is a huge one to widebodied 788's or 338's.
One sees Boeing ramping up 737 prod enormously.Interesting.
One sees Boeing totally committed (resource) to the phenomenal 777X project for the next 5 years.
....But then what?
Then you will see the launch of their narrow bodied replacement. The first model out will be the largest (I think) at 250 seats.(with a 200 seater -800 replacement- coming later).
So the A321NEO should be able to enjoy a little 10 year window of success.But that's it IMHO
Whether it includes TATL we will have to wait and see if it can do it or not.
 
burnsie28
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:46 pm

Quoting frostyj (Reply 11):

I live 2,500n miles from Boston and 2,700 nmiles to NYC respectively.

The 737-900ER can easily fly here with a nmile range of 3,300 miles. The United ones even have the same configuration so for us on the island of Ireland I don't see the problem.

Realistically the 737-900ER can only make it 2,870 miles or 2,493 nautical miles.
 
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VCEflyboy
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 12:52 pm

One question RE the reliability: are those 757s unreliable because they are old or is the 757 just unreliable?
I am asking because I used to fly on the FM 757 frequently but do not recall any delay. But then again I learned recently that those are / were (not sure if they are still flying) the youngest 757 birds around.
 
frostyj
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:02 pm

Quoting burnsie28 (Reply 13):

BFS to BOS is 2,570 nautical miles.
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par13del
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:08 pm

Quoting parapente (Reply 12):
The 737-9 can't go there. They have this market to themselves for the mo'.
The next plane size leap is a huge one to widebodied 788's or 338's.

Boeing's only other option other than a new build is to take some weight out of the 767-200 to make it more efficient, how much the tanker contract can assist in this regard is another story,
 
airbazar
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:24 pm

Quoting par13del (Reply 8):
The upcoming NEO still falls short in range and payload will always be lower, so when do we expect the next updated version or how long will it take to get the PIP's (if those are what is required) to get the a/c more capable of the TATL mission?

"Out of the box" the first NEO's are already capable of most TATL routes operated by AA/US: LIS, GLA, EDI, SNN, MAN, DUB.
It's UA that will have to wait a little longer for their routes into Germany and places like BCN, OSL, ARN, but it will come.
 
roseflyer
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:24 pm

This is a common topic. In general, the number of 757s flying 7-8 hour routes is only 100-200 airplanes. That is not a large enough market for Airbus or Boeing to be particularly interested in. There is a market out there for an airplane with a MTOW of 250,000 - 350,000 like the 757, but the problem is, the market is too small for Boeing or Airbus to be interested in putting billions of dollars into it. Airplanes are getting more and more expensive to design and develop, so Airbus and Boeing have less motivation to build more models.

The 737 and A320 are getting undercut from the smaller side, so if they continue pushing the airframes to have higher takeoff weights, that limits their efficiency at shorter ranges. There are some vocal airlines like United, Delta, American, Copa, Alaska, Hawaiian, Icelandair etc that want more range out of 737s and A320s. However while large and significant customers, the average route of a 737 or A320 is about 900 miles and about 2 hours long. So while there are a few airlines pushing airplanes beyond 5 hours, most airlines are not. In order to increase the MTOW by 10,000 - 20,000 lbs, the whole airframe is going to take some penalties due to stronger gear, higher tire loading, structural weight increases, etc. If appeasing the needs of a few airlines costs the overall airplane 1 or 2% efficiency, then Airbus or Boeing run the risk of losing orders to airlines interested in operating short 1 hour hops or looking at the smaller MAX-7 or A319NEO. Airbus and Boeing cannot please everyone. I also assume that airlines like British Airways, Air France, KLM and Lufthansa are advocating against MTOW increases. Higher MTOW only hurts these airlines that exclusively operate short haul since it costs efficiency and increases landing fees. A subtle and more sinister desire to prevent their American counterparts from stealing traffic operating to secondary cities in the UK, France, Germany etc might also exist. The European airlines would prefer traffic from cities like MAN, NCL, EDI, TXL, NCE, BCN, LIS, etc to feed through their main hubs. A higher TOW A321 or 737MAX would increase competition.

The longest routes operated by 737s are about 3300 miles. These are north south routes with less winds, but with improved range due to efficiency with the MAX and NEO, that should mean that east west routes should be doable. That means New York or Boston to the UK or Ireland should be possible with occasional westbound fuel stops. I do not think we will see the 737 or A320 family making it to the mainland European continent.

I think the 757 will live on with the last routes being mainland Europe to the United States before retirement. Then the route will either sustain a 787 or go away. There is not enough demand in my opinion to justify building an airplane for this market.
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holzmann
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:48 pm

Why oh why did B destroy the 757 tooling so fast???

How "difficult" or costly would it have been to take the 752, throw on a 787-style wing (like the 748) and install new, modern engines. Throw in the latest interior cabin design...call it a 757-8...

Can anyone Photoshop this for me?
752 + 787 wing + chevron engines...
 
dfambro
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 1:58 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 18):
In general, the number of 757s flying 7-8 hour routes is only 100-200 airplanes. That is not a large enough market for Airbus or Boeing to be particularly interested in. There is a market out there for an airplane with a MTOW of 250,000 - 350,000 like the 757, but the problem is, the market is too small for Boeing or Airbus to be interested in putting billions of dollars into it.

If the aircraft was available with state-of-the-art efficiency, you might see a lot more demand for a large narrow-body that can fly those routes. It would fit right in with the 'point-to-point' model that Boeing has used to justify the 787.
 
roseflyer
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:17 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 19):
Why oh why did B destroy the 757 tooling so fast???

People seem to think that tooling to make a fuselage behind scrapped is a big concern. It is far more than that. Of the 1000 suppliers making 757 parts, only a few are making spares. The production line was shut down because airlines do not want such an airplane in significant quantities. The 737-900ER is 20% more efficient than the 757 and can operate 80% of the routes. The 757 was overbuilt because in the 1970s, short field performance was a major concern since many major cities only had runways in the 5,000-7,000ft range. Now, there are some niche regional airports with short runways, and some with busy airports with slot and perimeter restrictions, but in general there is no need to be able to fly 2,500 miles from a 5,000ft runway. There is not a major metropolitan market in the world without a 9,000ft runway that is used for flights over 1,500 miles, which means that a 737-900ER despite needing miles of runway, can operate the routes that the 757 was designed for. Passengers see the 757 having great capability, but they do not see the excessive fuel being burnt to provide capability that is only utilized on a hundred or so routes.

Quoting holzmann (Reply 19):

How "difficult" or costly would it have been to take the 752, throw on a 787-style wing (like the 748) and install new, modern engines. Throw in the latest interior cabin design...call it a 757-8...

The supply chain for the 757 is gone. All the parts that went into the airplane are obsolete. New suppliers would have to be found. You are looking at something costing more than any other derivative that has ever been made. At this point, you might as well start new than trying to reinvent a 35 year old design. The FAA would require a new type certificate anyway.

Quoting dfambro (Reply 20):

If the aircraft was available with state-of-the-art efficiency, you might see a lot more demand for a large narrow-body that can fly those routes. It would fit right in with the 'point-to-point' model that Boeing has used to justify the 787.

Such an airplane would have to sell over a thousand to be economically viable. Low production numbers mean that there are fewer frames to spread development costs over which makes an airplane prohibitively expensive. Yes a new plane would create demand, but is it big enough to justify the development costs? If the market is only 400-500 planes, Boeing or Airbus would struggle to be able to sell the airplane for less than a 787 or A330. To the airline CEO, who would buy an updated 757 size airplane when he could get a 787 for the same price?
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pjc747
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:28 pm

This is the reason why a direct replacement for the 757 is so necessary.

DL flies JFK to Malaga, which is 3,288nm planned. That exceeds the loaded range of the A321 and the 737-900ER. Of course they could fly with much less load to make it to Malaga, Pisa, Stockholm, Dakar, and others, but this would likely exclude the 171 passengers, which include 15 J, 44 Y+, and 108 Y which the 757 provides the capacity to fill, seeing as these other routes are longer.

Ranges:

Baseline: 757-200 w/winglets: 4,100nm

A321ceo w/ sharklets: 3,200nm

737-900ER w/ winglets: 3,265nm

A321neo: ~3,650nm

737-9 MAX: ~3,595nm

Of course you can't forget that nothing replaces the 757-300, which is the only narrowbody which can carry over 220 people with F, Y+ and Y. DL carries 224 or 234 depending on the plane's config, and United does 214. It also has a range of 3,595nm, meaning it can do what a 737-9 MAX does with many more passengers, including go to Hawaii and be competitive with a small widebody.
 
airbazar
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:30 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 18):
This is a common topic. In general, the number of 757s flying 7-8 hour routes is only 100-200 airplanes. That is not a large enough market for Airbus or Boeing to be particularly interested in.

But that's a consequence of said aircraft not existing. A 752 type aircraft with 20% better fuel economy would sell far more than 100-200 copies. Oh wait, that is the A321NEO  
 
mjoelnir
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:35 pm

There are enough rather young B757 out there to keep them flying on North Atlantic routes for years. When on all other routes the B757 has been replaced by A321neo and B737-9MAX the last B757 will fly the longer routes and/or hot and high.
 
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Revelation
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:41 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 19):
How "difficult" or costly would it have been to take the 752, throw on a 787-style wing (like the 748) and install new, modern engines. Throw in the latest interior cabin design...call it a 757-8...

Sounds similar to what they are doing on the 777X program, and we read that when Boeing was asking for bids for other locations to host the program they issued a RFP and:

Quote:

According to details of the RFP obtained by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the requirements specify either a single $7-10 billion, 4.2 million-sq.-ft. site that will house both final assembly and wing construction under one roof, or two sites— one to house the final assembly line and the other the 114-ft.-long composite wing.

Divided up, the requirement calls for a primary 3.1 million-sq.-ft. facility costing between $4 billion and $6 billion for fuselage and final assembly, and a secondary 1.1 million-sq.-ft. site for the wing costing between $2 billion and $4 billion.

Ref: http://aviationweek.com/awin-feature...reveals-10-billion-777x-site-needs

So the answer to your question is very costly.

The numbers go all over the place, but even the 'relatively simple' A320 and A330 NEO programs are said to be $2B each and they are using existing facilities and aren't replacing the wings. As we see above if Boeing still had the 757 facility you'd need to add another $2B-$4B for a new wing facility which puts it out to $4B-$6B. However they don't have the facility so we'd end up closer to the $7B-$10B stated for the 777X new site above. Note the costs in my quote above do NOT include engineering and certification costs. A true 'white sheet of paper' program rapidly gets one to the $15B cost that some assign to the 787 program.
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PEK777
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:09 pm

Boeing should re-open the 757 line, there is obviously a demand for this type of aircraft. Would they consider a 757NEO?
 
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par13del
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:13 pm

Quoting holzmann (Reply 19):
How "difficult" or costly would it have been to take the 752, throw on a 787-style wing (like the 748) and install new, modern engines. Throw in the latest interior cabin design...call it a 757-8...

If they had only looked at engines it would be less costly, but today everyone wants everything to be upgraded so back to square one, new airplane massive expenditure.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 21):
Such an airplane would have to sell over a thousand to be economically viable.

Well if we consider that all new frames are being upsized, that is not just for pax capacity, range is also increasing so it stands to reason that by the time both OEM's put out their new narrow body a/c a range of 4,000+ or the current range of the 757-200 mayl be standard, so........

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 24):
There are enough rather young B757 out there to keep them flying on North Atlantic routes for years.

The issue is not the age of the frame but as mentioned by Roseflyer, whether the suppliers of the parts have more economic incentive to abandon the frame and move on. The a/c is only viable if it has a logistics train for support.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 21):
The supply chain for the 757 is gone. All the parts that went into the airplane are obsolete. New suppliers would have to be found. You are looking at something costing more than any other derivative that has ever been made.
 
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par13del
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:20 pm

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 26):
Boeing should re-open the 757 line, there is obviously a demand for this type of aircraft. Would they consider a 757NEO?

Why, as mentioned including in my last post, the suppliers are the issue, so why not move to an older frame that is still in production and for which suppliers still exist - 767-200.
Take some weight out of that puppy, put on a new engine, attempt to get some cost savings from the tanker program and see how much more effective that frame can be versus a 757.
 
dank
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 8:28 pm

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 26):

Boeing should re-open the 757 line, there is obviously a demand for this type of aircraft. Would they consider a 757NEO?

Because the 321 (especially the NEO) and the 739 (particularly the Max) can do almost all the routes the 757 can, I'm not sure where this obvious demand is. US to Europe on the 757 was more a solution in search of a problem once 737s and 320s could do transcons effectively) rather than a solution in search of a problem. If there had been a demand for this plane for those types of routes we would have seen the 757 be more successful in later years and we would have seen replacements by now. I realize that there are people that love this plane, but it seems to blind people to the realities of the demand and market (I'll freely admit that among mainline jets, i find nothing worse than being stuck in the back of a 753).
 
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DocLightning
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:07 pm

Quoting pjc747 (Reply 22):
This is the reason why a direct replacement for the 757 is so necessary.

For one route? An entire new type for one route? Or even three?

Look, there may be some routes that have to stop after the 757 is gone because no other aircraft will be able to profitably fly it. It won't be many, but it might be a few. Passengers traveling to those locations may need to connect somewhere. Hardly the end of the world.
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boeingrulz
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 10:36 pm

Speaking from my experience as a traveler to LIS from the Pacific Northwest of the US; UA and US fly the 757 to LIS from the East coast. Those of us on the West coast, or another major market with non-stops to Europe we can make it to LIS with one stop, either in EWR or PHL on UA/US respectively or AMS or CDG on Delta/AF/KLM. It doesn't make much difference so the non-stop to LIS is not a big draw except for those in the two O&D markets as far as I can tell. The rest is down to loyalty program miles, schedules, prices and the like. Having that specific flight on that specific equipment is not a deal breaker for many.

Having said that. I love the 757 on the EWR-LIS route. The 757 is a comfortable capable airplane and the service is not bad on that flight either. I have also enjoyed Delta out of Seattle/Portland on their A330’s. Delta is doing a great job with service in Y class and their fleet of A330’s that are used on these routes are really comfortable and have great newer interiors.
 
silentbob
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 10:49 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 24):
There are enough rather young B757 out there to keep them flying on North Atlantic routes for years. When on all other routes the B757 has been replaced by A321neo and B737-9MAX the last B757 will fly the longer routes and/or hot and high.

Agreed, I think the next generation narrow body offerings from Airbus and Boeing will include a model that covers all of the current 757 missions. Airlines will have to make do with their existing models until that time or change to larger aircraft until the manufacturers are ready to build that next generation of narrow body aircraft.
 
N62NA
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 10:50 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 18):
Airplanes are getting more and more expensive to design and develop

This struck me as a very interesting observation, and it flies in the face of what I (and perhaps others) would have thought: That with all our new technology it was actually less expensive to do design and development.
 
frostyj
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:04 pm

Quoting boeingrulz (Reply 31):

But you are only thinking on this from an American point of view.

In places like Ireland and Scotland we are small and so don't have as many connection opportunites. For some regions we only have one north american route which can be a major economic advantage.
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MD80Nut
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:41 pm

It's easy to forget the 757 was not designed as a long range narrow body aircraft, but rather a jack of all trades that could do one hour hops to transcons. And it's rapidly being replaced in that role by 737NGs and A32Xs now and -MAXs and NEOs soon.

That leaves the current role as an ideal plane for shorter and thinner trans Atlantic flights. I doubt that market will be big enough to support a specialized design for that purpose.

However, couldn't a 787-8 LITE (or A330-800neo LITE, for that matter) work? I mean, the plane is already very efficient and cost effective, and since those "short" trans Atlantic flights don't require as much fuel it wouldn't need to carry as much weight. And hopefully low development costs as well, low enough to justify the sale of only a hundred to two hundred samples?

Cheers, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
pjc747
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 12:10 am

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 30):
For one route? An entire new type for one route? Or even three?

Because although size-wise and range-wise the A321 and 737-900ER and their new engien counterparts can replace most of what the 757 does, it doesn't not allow for growth or expansion. If you fly any US carrier transcontinental, you will find that the flights are almost always full. Even the 777-200LR from ATL-LAX can be full at times. When you replace all 757s with the A321 or 739, yes, you will have more or less the same capability. However, you will not have room for growth because the A321 and 739 have reached the limit for the size of their airplane. To have larger narrowbodies, you will need a fundamentally larger airplane, one that can be brought to 757-300 length or longer like the DC-8-70. Then, you will have a very capable airplane. With new technology, one will perhaps be able to open up more markets direct to small European cities than are economical today. The biggest advantage of a 757-sized airplane would be cost. Buying a 787-8 for domestic flying costs a lot of money, and narrowbodies are nearly $200 million cheaper (book price).
 
brilondon
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 12:32 am

I would have thought that the 787-3 would actually made a great replacement as it has the capacity and the legs to replace any 757 mission. I suspect that it would have been too expensive though for a few of the airlines that are currently flying the 757.
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777STL
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 12:43 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 19):
Why oh why did B destroy the 757 tooling so fast???

#1. Because 757s weren't selling. They practically had to give away the last few that they built. Despite the assertions on this website otherwise, there was no longer a business case for the 757.

#2. The opportunity cost of the facilities involved. Boeing opened another 737 line in the space once used by the 757 line. I can guarantee you that line is now printing money while the 757's was floundering.

Quoting PEK777 (Reply 26):
Boeing should re-open the 757 line, there is obviously a demand for this type of aircraft.

Yes, I'm sure you know how to run Boeing better than Boeing does.

Quoting par13del (Reply 28):
Why, as mentioned including in my last post, the suppliers are the issue, so why not move to an older frame that is still in production and for which suppliers still exist - 767-200. Take some weight out of that puppy, put on a new engine, attempt to get some cost savings from the tanker program and see how much more effective that frame can be versus a 757.

Right. Because it's just that easy to start mixing and matching random parts on a modern commercial airliner without any regard to the overall airframe. You guys just don't have a clue do you?

Quoting brilondon (Reply 37):
I would have thought that the 787-3 would actually made a great replacement as it has the capacity and the legs to replace any 757 mission. I suspect that it would have been too expensive though for a few of the airlines that are currently flying the 757.

Well, if that were the case, the 788 is still probably a better replacement. The 787-3 was actually designed for short haul flights, not the medium long haul flights that made the 757 famous.
PHX based
 
pjc747
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 12:55 am

Quoting 777stl (Reply 38):
Yes, I'm sure you know how to run Boeing better than Boeing does.

I'm not going to judge what they're doing, but I will say that simply because said business runs said business said way doesn't mean its done correctly.
 
frostyj
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:10 am

Quoting brilondon (Reply 37):

We are looking for a replacement for short transatlantic flights.
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par13del
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:18 am

Quoting N62NA (Reply 33):
That with all our new technology it was actually less expensive to do design and development.

The computers are much better but the cost of the software and the programmers have introduced new cost so........

Quoting 777stl (Reply 38):
Right. Because it's just that easy to start mixing and matching random parts on a modern commercial airliner without any regard to the overall airframe. You guys just don't have a clue do you?

No, but that is more realistic than bringing back the 757 and designing a new build when not yet ready for the 737 replacement. Take a look at the NEO and the MAX, they are doing just what you claim and it is costing a ton but less than a new build so...

Quoting 777stl (Reply 38):
The 787-3 was actually designed for short haul flights, not the medium long haul flights that made the 757 famous.

The problem with the 787-3 is / was that it was so customized for the Japan market it was unattractive to the mass of airlines who may have been looking for an A300/310/757 replacement, too heavy and too little range.
 
N104UA
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:30 am

Would expect the awaited 797 to have a longer variant that can make it to Europe, it seems now most a/c of that size could be sold in an ER or LR version that would make that.

Does anyone know if Boeing has thus in the works?
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cloudboy
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:35 am

One problem that keeps happening here on these boards is that so many assume a) that the market demand for flights is always going to remain the same, and b) that the figure is set in stone and will never be affected by other conditions.

We can fill larger planes now - will that demand still be there 5 to 10 years from now? With air alliances will some carriers just want enough capacity to hold onto a route, a kind of backup just in case, and not fly a larger jet? WE already saw how capacity restriction drives up the prices airlines can get in the domestic US market - will that not prompt airlines to try that internationally? If demand is for frequency over size domestically, why wouldn't that hold true internationally? You can't fill a day flight to Europe in most cases on a 330, but could you fill a 757? For that matter, we already see discount airlines looking into the transatlantic market - they would be ripe for smaller aircraft.

No matter how you look at it, the frontal area of an aircraft plays a huge part in the fuel bill. The smaller you can make that, the better.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
global2
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:37 am

Quoting holzmann (Reply 5):
. Something about the A333/A343 that make me feel claustrophobic. The curvature of the sidewalls? The small windows

Exactly! I always choose window seats but the A330's slanted sidewall feels like it's in my face and makes me feel like I'm in a small RJ. It's amazing that narrowbody aircraft don't feel as confining.
 
EIDL
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 1:42 am

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 21):
There is not a major metropolitan market in the world without a 9,000ft runway that is used for flights over 1,500 miles,

DUB is significantly under 9000ft, and is used for 5,100 mile flights multiple times a week and daily as of next year. Takeoff performance still matters.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:21 am

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Personally, I think it will be a combination of A321 Neos and 737-9Max models.

There is work being done to make the A321NEO have enough range to do the 752 TATL routes. Not the out of the box version (with 3,650nm range vs. the 757s 3900 to 4100nm range). But later variants. e.g., Pratt has promised a PIP to cut fuel burn and Airbus will work to cut weight as well as improve efficiency.

Oh, and the 738MAX has a much better chance. It has a 3620nm promise range vs. the -9MAX's 3,595. While not much, range differences will matter. I also believe the -8MAX promise range is *low* versus the potential and has a pre-build in 'miss' in range 'just in case.'

Quoting par13del (Reply 6):

Airbus wants those routes to be flown by A330's (any version) or A350's.

Airbus knows there is a market. They did work on the concept in 1998 & 1999 and I'm sure since then.   


Lightsaber
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MIflyer12
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:25 am

Quoting EIDL (Reply 45):

DUB is significantly under 9000ft, and is used for 5,100 mile flights multiple times a week and daily as of next year. Takeoff performance still matters.

If DUB is the biggest metro you can cite, Roseflyer's point is made.
 
Centre
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 2:42 am

Out of curiosity; how many routes/aircrafts that are we looking at here that are worth developing a replacement for the 757?
I have cut 4 times, and it's still short.
 
wjcandee
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RE: US To Europe, 757 Replacements

Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:13 am

Why a replacement at any time in the next 15 years?

A 762 isn't going to do it, because its economics are burdened by its wider body, which makes it significantly-less-fuel-efficient than the 757, with a similar number of pax.

However, why would anyone want to build more 757s just for the thin East Coast-Europe routes? There will be a perfectly-adequate number of airframes available for this limited purpose as the 321 and 739 replace the 757 on a large percentage of routes now run by the 757.

The $2.5 million or so required per fully-depreciated frame to keep them operating another 15 years at a high dispatch reliabilty level is a fraction of what one would spend on a new frame.