ContinentalEWR
Topic Author
Posts: 3619
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 1:17 am

Today's New York Times reported that TWA has missed payments to its employee's pension plan and that a law
suit may be filed. The article also mentioned that TWA
has less cash on hand than last year at this time.

TWA has missed the greatest profit streak the US air
line industry has ever enjoyed. With the economy now
slowing sharply and demand for airline seats likely to
suffer as a result, I wonder what will happen to TWA.

ContinentalEWR
 
ILUV767
Posts: 3035
Joined: Mon May 29, 2000 2:21 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 2:34 am

I think that TWA will file for chapter 11, and disapear. United or other carriers may try to pick up there JFK slots. In 10 years they will come back as a small regional carrier.

In order for them to make aprofit, they have to offer a better route structure. If they really want to keep STL, then do it, but add a hub in the west, with north and south operations, and of course make a southern hub. They need to be able to move people to and from citys other than St. Louis!
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 2:55 am

I pray that TWA will be just fine. I think they need to drop JFK, Remodel, and expand STL then Open a Hub in the west. Possibly PHX, or LAS. Only thing that concerns me is both airports are already congested as it is.

Happy Holidays

TWA
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

Southern Hub

Sun Dec 24, 2000 2:58 am

If TWA wants to make a southern Hub how about MCO? MCO is one of the most appealing cities in the World, and same with the airport. MCO has soooooooo much room to grow, and I think The Airport Authaurity would build TWA a new Terminal if they were serious about a Hub in MCO

TWA
 
AA737-823
Posts: 4898
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2000 11:10 am

RE: Southern Hub

Sun Dec 24, 2000 3:58 am

Eastern used to have a big hub at MCO, or was it MIA? No, I think it was MCO. That could be a profitable market for TWA. They could strike a deal with Walt Disney World and kick out Delta as the official Disney airline....

Just my two dollars.
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

AA737-823

Sun Dec 24, 2000 4:07 am

Hiya, Eastern had their largest Hub at MIA. MCO would be great for TWA. Is Delta still the official airline of Disney?

Happy Holidays

TWA
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 4:30 am

Well, I think OKC is a great place for TWA, i would hate to see them go under. OKC is remodeling and has lots of room, it is 8th largest airport in land area. There is lots of room for expanding.

B r i t A i r 7 7 7
 
gibberish
Posts: 411
Joined: Mon Sep 11, 2000 5:35 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 4:39 am

Hi guys

It would really be sad to see another former great airline go under again. But what exactly triggered their financial situation? I mean, they used to be a huge airline with lots of international (and domestic) routes. Do they even fly international anymore? I don't think so. Could it be that TWA800 is one of the reasons that they are in struggle? I would appreciate it if someone could inform me or give me some information.


Thanks

gibberish
 
USAirways737
Posts: 986
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2000 7:20 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 4:44 am

one word gibberish: icahn
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 4:52 am

TWA is a great airline!!!!! Yes we still fly International. I dont think TWA FL# 800 is a major problem for TWA.

TWA
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 4:57 am

Geez...a TWA discussion without a Acvitale responce...whats going on? Hurry up and defend TWA while you still can!
 
Republic
Posts: 541
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 12:39 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 5:55 am

Which airlines will benefit most by a TWA demise (which I hope does not happen)? Southwest would increase operations at STL. But that would still leave a big void. AA? ORD and DFW too close to open a new hub. CO? Not enough aircraft to open a new hub. UA? I hope not. DL? Finally give up a losing battle with AA at DFW and move what's left at DFW to Lambert? NW? MEM is not near the type of hub that other airlines have, so maybe a emphasis on STL? And my personal favorite, assuming they too survive, is Pan Am. Move from Mid America (BLV) to STL, but they don't have enough aircraft either. What do you think?

TWA has been on the ropes for quite some time. I'm sure the majors have contingency plans should TW go down and not be able to get up this time.

Long live TWA,
Joe

 
ryanair
Posts: 646
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 1999 1:41 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 6:29 am

TWA has very good money management, as a general trend the balance sheet keeps increasing in value despite their operating losses, this last quarter it's gone down but to take this one off as meaningful is premature.

The pensions issue at TWA is very complex from the Ichan days and now with Karabu (discussed at length before here). Missing payments may be connected to that whole mess in a strategic way so might not in truth be what it appears.

The reason TWA missed the current boom is Karabu allowing Ichans lowestfare.com to sell their tickets at give away prices thus devistating their income. There's no real way of knowing what will happen to TWA after Karabu expires, it might flurish with new planes and high yield (With lowestfare.com out of the picture) or might to be weak to withstand any general economic turbulance.
 
aatripleseven
Posts: 296
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2000 9:20 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 6:56 am

What is TWA's ultimate plan? I know they are expanding in the Caribbean and cutting down on European operations. They aren't ordering widebodies and I haven't seen dramatically increased domestic operations. JFK flights are being cut however should be kept because DL and AA are opening new terminals and up and coming jetBlue is posing a threat. Doesn't that indicate that something good is going on at JFK? Why are they bowing out and where are they going? I have a personal inerest in seeing that TWA survives but am confused on their master plan.


Click for large version
Click here for full size photo!

Photo © The Douglas Aircraft Company (Jammy Lee)

 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 7:04 am

There are several reasons why TWA has missed out on the current airline boom and continues to lose money.

1) The most common answer is the Karabu Ticketing Agreement, which allows Carl Ichan, past TWA owner, to buy any ticket on TWA for 55% of its listed fare. Ichan than resells the tickets through his Lowestfare.com website at 75% of listed fare and in the process decimate TWA's yields on tons of flights. In fact much of the JFK-Europe pulldown has been because these flights were full of pax travelling on Karabu tickets and TW could fill the plane and make no money.

2) TWA is a shadow of its former self operationally, but as big as its former self costwise. Because of stringent union work rules and intensive gov't labor laws TW still maintains and pays for a tremendous infrastructure in Europe with 40 employees working at stations that see 2 flights daily, with their own expensive equipment and real estate. For this reason, TW has been rapidly closing stations in Italy, Spain, and Potugal as this is the only way to lay off inefficient staff.

3) Even here in America, because of union agreements TW has several obsolete clauses that the IAM insists upon that keep TWA bleeding money. TWA's Hangar 12 at JFK is a tremendous cost but rarely used. TWA's Maintance and Overhaul Base in Kansas City also is much too inefficient to be used profitably. There are tons of other work rules that TWA suffers from that its competitors don't.

4) Reputation. TWA still suffers from its early 90s and mid 80s repuatation as a dowdy carrier with late flights, old facilities, and decrepit planes. TWA has worked hard over the last 3 years to retire its entire fleet of 747, 727, and L1011 while replacing these planes with brand new 757s and 717s. Also TWA has retired in large amounts old DC9s and 767-200s and added newer but used MD80s and 767-300ERs.

5) Becuase of Karabu, TWA has been shuned in the alliance dating game and only recently signed agreements with America West, Air Europa, Air Malta, and Kuwait Airways.

6) TWA's JFK hub has been under attack from oneworld, SkyTeam, and Star alliances and its domestic flights are still being threatened by JetBlue's ultra low fares. JFK-PBI/FLL and LGA-PBI were ended after JB started flights. However, these operations were really from a different time when pax from around teh country flew to JFK to meet nightime flights aboard Tristars and 747s to Europe.

The good news is TWA has been rebounding. The new agreements mentioned above will add to revenue, the Karabu agreement is set to expire on 30 Sep 2003, and TWA to add revenue to already constant costs TWA has expanded by opening "focus citys" at SJU and LAX. Additionally TWA has signed agreements with several travel aggencies to run weekend charters from JFK, BOS, and EWR to the Carribean in exchange for guarranteed profit on all flights. Also, TWA's operational performance is superior to that of any other American airline over the last 2 years and despite recent Winter weather at Lambert, TWA is focused on running a tight ship.

It is my opinon TWA will do fine in the long run. A new widebody order is rhumored as is a Pacific expansion at its LAX Focus City. New Chataqua regional jets at STL are improving TWE service and TW's recently signed agreements with American Eagle at JFK and LAX will only put more pax on TW flights to the Carribean, Israel, and West Coast.
 
ContinentalEWR
Topic Author
Posts: 3619
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 7:44 am

TWA does not have enough cash to order new planes, open a west coast hub (as someone suggested), re-
model STL, and so forth.....TWA is limping along. As
long as demand remains high (largely due to spillover
from UA, DL, and NW because of their labor problems)
and provided the domestic economy doesn't tip into
recession, TWA can survive. A recession, even a
mild one, a drop in demand, will spell the end for
TWA. It has few remaining assets to dispose of to
raise cash.

ContinentalEWR
 
aatripleseven
Posts: 296
Joined: Sun Jun 04, 2000 9:20 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 7:59 am

TWAneedsNOhelp,

Thanks for the info!

AATripleseven
 
N960AS
Posts: 435
Joined: Mon May 01, 2000 3:46 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 8:09 am

No, no, no TWA can't go! I understand they are in major trouble, but no they have to 'suck it up' until September 30th 2003 when they're free of that stupid Karabu.

About the West Coast hub I agree they couldn't do that. However with code shares and decent partners they might be able to get more pax on flights out of LAX. If America West code shares for TWA that's LAS and PHX (plus CMH?) flights to feed LAX. Alaska is a TW partner but if they start code sharing? Then that adds PDX, SEA, SFO, BOI, EUG, ANC and many Western Mexican destinations to feed flights. And that is all in addition to AA Eagle flights. If they finally start LAX-BOS that will add to JFK and DCA which are pretty important markets from LAX they'd be be pretty big on LAX-East Coast routes and DCA is an exclusive route.

JFK makes me sad! I hate to see one of my favorite airlines loosing lots of money at my favorite airport serving my favorite city. However as long as the can still make money on transcons to CA, STL, MIA, MCO, SJU and the rest of the Caribbean I'm happy. It is depressing that the European flights are dropping like flies, but as long as they keep alive (and keep CDG!) then ok.

I'm rambaling, so I'm going to say good afternoon and the best wishes to TWA!
~N960AS

TWAneedsnoHelp: I wish I was alive for those glory days of TWA flying to many flights to Europe on L10s and 747s. Oh well.
 
BH346
Posts: 3164
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2000 5:50 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 8:13 am

Long live TWA!
Where's Acvitale?

Best Regards,
BH346
Happy Holidays
Northwest Airlines - Some People Just Know How to Fly
 
zrs70
Posts: 3314
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2000 4:08 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 8:18 am

Having recently become a life member of the Ambassador's Club, I am hoping that a larger airline with a greater club network merges with TW. I would really get a bang for my buck there! Still, it's quite sad comparing a current timetable to one from 15 years ago.
17 year airliners.net vet! 2000-2016
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 9:28 am

America West and TWA recently announced a widescale codeshare agreement that puts TW code on west coast flights from PHX and LAS and HP code on midwestern hops from STL. See news and new route map at: http://www.TWA.com.

Add to the rhumors about the widebody order two more domestic codeshares. Should be exciting....

Regards,
Russell

PS: AATripleseven, terrific picture!
 
DCA-ROCguy
Posts: 3890
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2000 5:03 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 3:07 pm

Ditto to Russ...TWA is a survivor. They've survived worse crises than a couple of missed pension payments. They'll get those made somehow. 2003 and the death of the evil Karabu vampire are on the way.

I get the impression that TWA's unions don't understand that TWA is no longer a major carrier and should not be expected to maintain 40-plus staffs at foreign stations, or inefficient old maintenance complexes. Survival is at stake. TWA will pull through, but the unions in my view have been almost as bad as Icahn. TWA has better things to spend its precious money on then featherbedding or dreams of past glory.

New dreams beckon, and TWA needs freedom to chase them.

Jim

Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
flyf15
Posts: 6633
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 11:10 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 3:17 pm

Seems to me like an America West/TWA merger would create a nice airline, maybe in 2003.  
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

TWA/America West

Sun Dec 24, 2000 10:43 pm

I hope their isnt a TWA/America West Merger. The only way I would support it would be be TWA bought America West, and aquired PHX & LAS. Forget Columbus.

I would rather see TWA stay Independent!!!!!

LONG LIVE TWA

Happy Holidays

TWA
 
acvitale
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2001 8:25 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Sun Dec 24, 2000 10:55 pm

I am here...


First COEWR is a fool to predict the demise based on the current situation. Oil is down $10 a barrel this week alone.

TWA has been in tighter cash poisitions before. They are a survivor airline and will continue to survive.

The new planes and West Coast operations that COEWR says there is no money for are all ready occurring. LAX traffic continues to grow with a 60% increase since last year and the Caribbean continues to grow as well.

No new planes... Hmpphh.. Are you blind? In the last 5 years alone.... 27 Brand new 757-200s 15 717-200s 24 brand new MD83s 3 brand new 767-300ERs and then the newer (but used catagory includes) 5 767-300ERs and 47 MD83s. The A318,319,320 are due on property in 2003.

TWA is better than any other major in operational numbers holding the highest operation completion and the highest on time numbers for three years running.

As for growth. TWA is now #2 in the Caribbean with only AA having more traffic.

As for comparing old timetables to new ones... Well TWA is flying more RPMs to more destinations than anytime in the past. Better double check the destination list and the number of flights. Just because they are not flying 747s to Europe hardly means they are dead. It is easy to stereotype and hard to look at the facts when it debunks your beliefs. Yes cash is tight. The payments to the 401K are contractually permitted to be deferred. The IAM and ALPA know that. The ALPA union acknowledged it. The IAM is negoiating a contract starting January. I believe they are posturing. It is a large part of their antiquated work rules that put TWA where it is today (along with Icahn and Hughs and others) The JFK hanger situation is one major example. Others are catering trucks requiring a TWA mechanic on board and mechanics being required for walk arounds and push backs. (Of course this may make TWA safer then other majors with only 1 accident (TWA800) in 20 years, (Many claim TWA 800 was a missle and coverup not the wiring)

Also the MCI maint. base has had a lease signed that includes a 300 million bond issue that will result in the base being upgraded and overhauled... That will make it much easier for TWA to subcontract work as well as do its own with upgraded facilities and tooling..

My take is TWA will survive.. Many have called for TWAs demise over the last 13 years. They have all been wrong. Wall Street said they would lose 1.63 a share last quarter they were off .26 a share.

In 2003. Ameriflot, Unitafolt, and the financially ailing TWA.  
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Mon Dec 25, 2000 4:52 am

Dont forget Deltaflot which with the new livery applied all over will be more "flot" than ever!
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Mon Dec 25, 2000 5:35 am

Well Said Acvitale  

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

TWA
 
ContinentalEWR
Topic Author
Posts: 3619
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 2:29 am

Acvitale,

Your knowledge and analysis are impressive dude but don't call me a fool
because you don't agree with me. You've made calls on TWA before and
you've been wrong. Where is the new widebody aircraft order you've been
promising for weeks? Frankly, from the perspective of an investor, TWA
has nothing to offer. To build a hub in LAX is stupid. UA and AA dominate
it and space is at a premium. The STL hub stinks. As for the Caribbean,
this is a cyclical market, with reduced traffic in the summer. If AA could not
make the Caribbean so profitable, what makes you think TWA can?

TWA has turned its disgusting service into a better product overall and it
has lots of shiny new planes but it hasn't turned a profit since 1988. I was
pointing out an article in the NYT, which was accurate and raised the same
questions I did, questions which are valid, given TWA's performance.

I don't see a future for TWA and I stand by my argument. If you want to
raise your red and white pom poms for Howard Hughes' airline, go right
ahead.

ContinentalEWR
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 2:35 am

TWA will most likely go the way of Pan Am, Eastern, and Delta. All three airlines were bought by Texas Air Corporation and now run as Canadian Airlines Group.
What a pity.



 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 2:48 am

:::::::The STL hub stinks:::::

No it doesn't! It may not be the newest flashiest airline terminal in the country, but as congested and busy as it is, it works superbly. Flights leave on time, arrivals arrive on time, getting into and out of the airport is easy and the airport has terrific location not far from the center of the city. As far as St. Louis for a hub....any airline would salivate to open a hub at St. Louis, a growing city in the heart of the country with a tremendous business environment. With new runway W1W and new terminals planned, STL Lambert is going to be one first class facility very soon. So in my opinion dude, STL hub does not stink!

Agree, that LAX is dominated by UA and AA. But if examine TW's operation there closely you will see it's in a separate niche. It has been advocated before that TW open tons of new business markets from LAX and compete head on with no less three nonstop airlines..Not Good. But TW's pinpoint precise market strategy of hitting strong destinations with little to no competition and/or support from large travel aggencies is on the mark. You may know TW is the only airline to operate LAX-DCA and for the convienence of National Airport, business traveller will choose TW. TW's new service to Kona Hawaii is supported by the travel agents, is profitable and will be complimented with supposed new service to LIH and HNL. TW is the only airline on LAX-SJU and this route shows promise.

As TW continues to expand on their transcon flying, look for BOS to be added from LAX next year...

The beauty of the Carribean is that it may be cyclical low yield etc....but TW makes a profit on every flight!

You correctly pointed out the one paragraph blurb in the Times....but so what? TW contractually is allowed to miss these payments and in context of attempting to renogiate a 100 million dollar note coming due soon, it is expected and important TW take advantage of as much time as allowed....

Regards,
Russell
 
ryanair
Posts: 646
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 1999 1:41 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 6:58 am

Looking at the numbers TWA should unless something completely off the wall happens, be in business for 1 October 2003, dawn of the post Karabu Age. That much shouldnot be in question.

The issue of overseas stations is linked largely to the local labour laws which are very restrictive rather than unions as such. In most continential European countries it's very hard indeed to cut staff numbers and if you try a company can expect quick and agressive action to make Eastern Airlines look a tea party (which is how the French Unions regularly blockade the entire country or bring Central Paris to a hault, you really don't want to upset the French Agricultural or Transport Unions). Where TW have been able to cut back, such as the UK where pro business laws exist, they have largely speaking done so.

I don't know if restrictive practices exist as TW or not. If they do TWA will need to be very careful, so much of their recovery is built on improving their service and staff relations, which can turn very quickly. Still what's another challange....
 
SegmentKing
Posts: 3224
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2000 7:16 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 7:53 am

So you think a healthy company would skimp by on bills ????? So it is allowed to make deferred payments.. wonderful.. But the fact it has to utilize that isn't.

About ?s asked of a poster here.. yes, the widebody order is nowhere to be found. Boston service hasn't seen the light yet, ? is will it.. TWA will only get slaughtered in this market already filled with almost 15 flights a day, yet most American and United flights only go out 2/3rds full. And with United and American offering more legroom and inflight services, can TWA compete head to head on this strictly O/D market?

This airline has to carefully watch every move it makes. STL is plagued when weather hits... as it can only use one runway. Even TWA cheerleaders admit that STL is hell when it's at or below minimums.

but I'd like to clarify some FACTS here. TWA is NOT the ontime airline for the year. Northwest has that as of date and will probably walk away w/ 2000 as putty in it's hands. But saying it has the best ontime figure of the majors is pure bull crap.. if TWA had 4 or 5 hubs, lets see what their ontime rate would be... pushing 600 airplanes out ontime is not as easy as pushing out 184 (or is it higher now).

Anyhow-- i don't want to see this airline go away.. too many people have their lives tied in to it.
~ ~ ~ ~ pRoFeSsIoNaL hUrRiCaNe DoDgEr ~ ~ ~ ~
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 8:52 am

Nate, I think your a jerk.
 
watewate
Posts: 2216
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2000 6:00 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 9:10 am

Re:SegmentKing
Personally, I'm happy if the airline I'm flying is above 80% on time or just one or two percentage points behind the leader. Right now I wouldn't avoid any airline besides United and perhaps Delta if the situation doesn't get better soon.
You pointed out that STL is plagued by delay when weather hits. Good point- so shouldn't TWA be commended for keeping their on-time rate as high as it is? JFK isn't exactly the most weather-friendly either. The sheer volume of traffic around NYC area also contributes to delays, but TWA has managed to do well there. As for Northwest- good for them. They are doing well for themselves out of those airports in snow-belt area.

And doesn't Northwest have only 2 hubs? Last time I checked their hubs were DTW and MSP. How about TWA? They operate out of STL and JFK. I don't get your point about operating out of 6 hub airports. Sure, Northwest has NRT and other airports, but they don't have enough aircraft movements to warrant the title of 'true hub' status.

As for your doubts about TWA doing well out of LAX- I agree with you that LAX transcon flights are well served in general with AA and UA seeing empty seats. But like it was pointed out earlier, there is a niche market for TWA to penetrate. Tarnished UA's reputation and travellers who want alternative to AA could choose TWA over the other two.
 
SegmentKing
Posts: 3224
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2000 7:16 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 9:17 am

Am I a jerk for pointing out stuff that Wall Street says that the cheerleaders fail to see??

TWA can't just jump into a market and make money on it. Otherwise they would have been making money since 1989. LAX is a very unusual market and TWA has very little feed on either end.

this airline can't take many risks right now... it has deferred a payment into an employee fund already... that shows there is some sort of cash flow issue. it's signing codeshares left and right, but how much traffic will become of it?

And about Northwest, they have 5 hubs per a friend at the MSP headquarters... Detoilet, Minnie, Memphis, Tokyo, and Amsterdam. TWA has only one hub.. St. Louis. JFK wording as a "hub" was dropped some time back... This airline needs to focus on what makes it money and run with it... granted Karabu is an issue, so is flying planes 25% full on sunday after thanksgiving (from sources at the airline)
~ ~ ~ ~ pRoFeSsIoNaL hUrRiCaNe DoDgEr ~ ~ ~ ~
 
trnswrld
Posts: 1068
Joined: Sat May 22, 1999 2:19 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 9:43 am

I think TWA is well aware of what they need to focus on. Some people may easily say what they think the airline needs to do and if they did they would make money. Well, its not that easy. First off, the airline is doing a great job of becoming profitable obviously by there better service, highly refined fleet, and the dropping of several markets that just dont make money. I flew TWA the sunday after thanksgiving just as mentioned in the previous posts. I dont know what flights were only 25% full, but my ORD-STL, STL-MCO flights were 100% full. Just thought I would let you know.
Take care guys  
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

STL

Wed Dec 27, 2000 11:56 am

Here we go again wit some spec dissing STL. I personally love STL!!!!! I never find it to be dirty, crammed, or dull. Its one of my favorite airports, and the expansion is gonna be great. Sure its congested, But thats the way airports are these days.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS

TWA
 
SegmentKing
Posts: 3224
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2000 7:16 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 12:56 pm

Once the master plan at St. Louis starts, we will begin to watch TWA play lots of catch-up that is despirately needed.. hopefully the IAM will realize the position of the airline and allow more RJs to fly.

About the 25% load factors, those were on a # of regional routes into STL mid afternoon on that Sunday. ORD and MCO are both busy markets. MKE, MLI, LIT, TUL, SGF, IND, and CLE aren't as busy markets.

Time will tell..... only time will tell.....
~ ~ ~ ~ pRoFeSsIoNaL hUrRiCaNe DoDgEr ~ ~ ~ ~
 
N960AS
Posts: 435
Joined: Mon May 01, 2000 3:46 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Wed Dec 27, 2000 1:12 pm


>>To build a hub in LAX is stupid. UA and AA dominate it and space is at a premium.

Where did you hear that? It isn't true at all. LAX is in some ways a Boston of the West. UA doesn't 'dominate' LAX. True they are the number one airline at the airport but it isn't something like UA at Denver. A recent post said they control 36% of the traffic at LAX. I think this is a little high since I think I read recently it was more like 28% or so. The 'hub' isn't what I would consider a true hub. They do serve the most cities from LA but UA always had a decent presence there. It is like all of the sudden UA adds some Airbus flights to other airlines' hubs that they hadn't served previous (DFW, MCO, ATL, you get the idea) and voila it's a hub! Also how can they have a true LAX hub when they have SFO and Denver close by. How many do they need? They also only have one full size terminal. That is termianl 7, 8 is only for Shuttle and Express and gates are only on one side of the 'finger'. T6 is shared with CO and others, mostly Star members though.

Now onto American. AA doesn't dominate either. They only have one full terminal (4) and then they share 3 with AS, TW, TZ, MidWEx and some others. The aquistion of Reno Air has boosted AA at LAX in the fact they now fly west coast routes from LAX. Specifically to SJC, OAK, SFO, RNO, LAS and they have added many new flights including PHX, MCO, Tulsa, STL, Denver and some other cities. They also are no.1 in the JFK-LAX market, which is the most important domestic city from JFK. They have more flights a day to BOS, JFK and MIA than UA. DL meanwhile is still a large player at LAX plus NW flies to Asia. That recent post said 15% for AA.

LAX always seems to have many low-fare carriers to keep rates down too, including tons of WN flights, plus AS and HP to name a few.

LAX is in no way dominated by one carrier however you're right that the airport is very crowded. But it's not say, LHR by any means.

I think TW is in some ways smart to add LAX as a focus city. Just one thing, right now they only have 2 gates in use. They have some more but they are leased out, to AA mainly, but don't quote me on that. Right now they have KOA, STL, SJU, JFK, and DCA non-stop. If BOS and OGG (?) happen soon, it'll be nice network. They also have more flights a day to JFK than DL.

Long live TWA! Oh, I love JFK and it is cool to see all the 'TWA' planes at STL!

~N960AS
 
acvitale
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2001 8:25 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 12:25 am

Nate,

NW is NOT #1 for the year. TW and NW were within .01 points of each other but NW got slammed with MEM, DTW, and MSP.

TW will walk with #1 again this year.

TW has the highest operational completion record in the biz as well. (A full 4% higher then NW. 99.8% to 95.6%)

TWA has typically deferred payments in the Q4 and Q1 area where it has negotiated the option to do so. It can be confirmed with a review of the 10Qs over the last few years.

TWA is doing well in the caribbean and for those who say AA was losing money there better look again. AA has a fortress hub that is known as MIA that serves more destinations in the caribbean then anywhere else. Add that to the Eagle ops out of SJU and the mainline hub... Hmmm.. TWA proved they could make money in the caribbean in the summer. Look at the 10Q breakouts.

As for COEWR. Wall Street said TWA would be dead over a decade ago. They have been wrong every time. TWA also tends to rank right up there with JDPowers and FF magazine.. Actually, TW and CO are the only two last year that ranked better then average.

As for BOS and JFK and LAX. Well TWA is up to 5 a day JFK-LAX and growing. While pax may like UA and AA in coach. In F class TW has more legroom, and comprable amenities with a generous upgrade program for high yield pax. That coupled with on time performance has helped TWA steal many UAL pax this summer on the lucrative trans cons. They had cancelled UAL flights and got reaccomodated on TWA and found the service, planes and personnel were frankly nicer. They have been staying in droves. Look at the yield increases on flat RPMs lately.

TWA is likely going to survive. As for the widebody order.. It is coming and COEWR.. I have been right on the vast majority of my calls! The widebody order will come be patient. TWA will survive.
 
twa
Posts: 819
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:59 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 12:41 am

Go Acvitale!!!!!

TWA
 
ryanair
Posts: 646
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 1999 1:41 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 12:59 am

Very few companies that can get away with it, actually give up their cash when they are supposed to. Historically it's one of the major reasons small companies supplying big ones go bust. Given the choice pay now, or pay later with no penalty, which would those in airliners.net land choose?
 
SegmentKing
Posts: 3224
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2000 7:16 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 3:57 am

From the DOT:

October 2000 Ontime
AQ 90.5%
NW 83.5%
CO 82.5%
DL 82.1%
US 78.5%
TW 77.7%

Mishandled Bags for Oct
HP 6.04 / per 100,000 pax
TW 6.00 / per 100,000 pax
WN 5.44 / per 100,000 pax
CO 4.73 / per 100,000 pax

For the 12 Mos ending Oct 31, 2000 Ontime Airlines
NW 80.4%
TW 79.3%
DL 78.6%
CO 78.6%
WN 76.5%

I'm not turning into TWAFA007... I'm actually using facts here.
~ ~ ~ ~ pRoFeSsIoNaL hUrRiCaNe DoDgEr ~ ~ ~ ~
 
acvitale
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2001 8:25 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 5:46 am

Nate,

You and I both have access to the employee info lines of both carriers. We both know what the numbers for November and December to date are. Hence we both know the real numbers before the DOT publishes them. It is no lie that TWA had an abysmal October. However we both know that they had a stellar November and December was rough on both TWA and NWA although TWA did slightly better due to the STL hub being further South then the MSP and DTW hubs. Then they benefited again with DFW and MEM being slammed while STL was only taking delays..

Either way I stand by my numbers for Nov and DEC to date. Unless TWA get slammed in the next few days they will do fine and hold 2000.

Why do you not post the "unofficial" NWA and TWA Employee infoline numbers for November and December to date????
 
User avatar
RayChuang
Posts: 8005
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2000 7:43 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 5:59 am

Actually, TWA is doing a lot better than people think. UNLIKE some airlines (NW [cough, cough]   ), TW has done a lot to extensively rebuild their fleet.

I mean, TW's fleet of DC-9's are going to very rapidly disappear soon. The combination of the 717-200 and A318 will mean TW can fly regional flights from STL with NEW (repeat, NEW) planes very soon.

I expect TW to announce an fairly substantial order for wide-body jets very soon. Don't be surprised that TW orders a combination of 767-300ER and 767-400ER for their long range flights.
 
awaramper
Posts: 117
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 1999 3:49 pm

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 7:04 am

I hope and pray that TWA will never be allowed to disapear. I worked for TWA for about 2 yrs. and I enjoyed my time with them. As for TWA800, I don't think that will be a problem in the future as far as TWA's money issues. As an airline employee and an airline junkie, I hope that TWA does not meet the unfortunate fate that PanAm did. That too was an unfortunate situation. Just my two cents worth.
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 9:14 am

TWA's market cap is about $90 million bucks. Guess what, one 747 is about $150 million. The airline is worth more broken up but that damn pension liability. Who wants that? No airline is going to touch them. Yikes. Resumes are out from people in HQ and the handwriting is on the wall. Expansion in the Carib. That is a joke. Yields are crap and way too much capacity. They bought the 717 and the A318. Isn't that same plane? Handcuffed by Icahn and the Unions. Run, run, run and don't look back.
 
acvitale
Posts: 1911
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2001 8:25 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 9:53 am

Actually market cap is about 120 million. The caribbean yield is more then Europe and your comments show a clear lack of industry knowledge.

Resumes out from HQ. Yeah right. Way to much capacity. Seems like they have had the highest load factor in their history. A318 and 717 are hardly the same plane with very different roles.

Yields are not great. Better then some majors worse then others. The real big problem that causes losses and the one thing you haven't touched is expenses.

Paying a lot for aircraft leases.
Crappy work rules due to the IAM union
Overhead that cannot be retired or shut down (IAM again)
Karabu agreement that kills 45% of revenue it touches.

Want to talk crap fine. Want to debate the real problem fine too.

Fact is.. If fuel had not quadrupled TWA would have made profit. Fact is... If MCI overhaul base was productive TWA would have made money. Fact is.. IF JFK hanger was moved it would have been damn close to profit. RJs are now comping on line... New aircraft and more... Needless to say improvements are occuring... If fuel drops we may see a turnaround.. Oh yeah fuel is down $12.00 a barrel this week...

The truth is the clock is ticking and it is a race. My money is on TWA. You are right in saying things are tough.. You are wrong in your rational and causes.

Al
 
SegmentKing
Posts: 3224
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2000 7:16 am

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 2:26 pm

Albert, with respect....

a lot of people I know said that JetBlue has really cleared out parts of 1CC and STL.... people aren't fleeing the airline, but JetBlue is offering a lot of TWA employees a lot more money than they are making now. I will have someone email you w/ references to 3 people in his department alone that have left to JetBlue... and another who is on yahoo! said he has lost a large # of friends to the guys in Connecticut. Money is a big draw to people.... :/

And about Northwest, I was just posting what the DOT had said. Yes, I am aware of November and both TWA and NW are tight again, but NW still has the lead for th eyear, but the DOT has yet to give headway to that... December will be close as well, as TWA was hit hard w/ STL and NW as well... but luckily they precancelled a lot of flights which basicly exempt those flights from being counted in the on time performance. I think someone @ the DOT told me they have to be cancelled at least 14 hours out to be exempt from DOT measuring.

STL can be a blessing or a curse, as we both know. It's just a matter before TWA can really be on it's knees and the IAM wake up and realize things aren't so wonderful here. Having an airline that is 75 years old and maintaining employees with file #s in the single digits isn't good. If TWA could only get 20% to 30% of the highest seniority workers out of there, this airline will make money. and the new terminal & runway.... once those are built, I will have more confidence in the airport, thus increasing my confidence in the airline as well.

Happy holidays al :P
~ ~ ~ ~ pRoFeSsIoNaL hUrRiCaNe DoDgEr ~ ~ ~ ~
 
Guest

RE: TWA Running Out Of Cash

Thu Dec 28, 2000 2:43 pm

All I can say is long live TWA!! The best U.S. airline!!!

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