watewate
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What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 1:38 pm

Any ideas? Of course this is IF all those speculated deals go through. Which one will be the odd one out?
 
Trvlr
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 2:08 pm

I feel Alaska may be the next target, and then MAYBE America West. Just minor speculation, but I think Dubya will let NW/CO jointly buy Alaska, and DL may have to take up America West, or fend for themselves (which I wouldn't be suprised if they could do).

Aaron G.

 
Wanderlust
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 2:23 pm

Yep...I'd be willing to bet that AS (Alaska) is the next carrier to be bought out (or at least given a serious offer to).

Who knows who will do the buying though: Northwest? Continental? Delta?

Man, this merger stuff is getting scary...
 
flyf15
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 2:26 pm

Anybody else think Frontier would be quite an attractive target for Continental?
 
thomacf
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 4:03 pm

I think Frontier could be attractive for CO. Maybe Denver could become a hub once again for them.
 
ILUV767
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 4:13 pm

I think that CO will go for AWA and Delta will go for Alaska...or the other way around. Either way, each provides a west coast hub, so they are both worth it.

On a side note...how about a National and Jet Blue merger? Hubs would be out of LAS and JFK. Operate both the 757 and A320. That would make a great little airline woudnt it?
 
Guest

RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 4:26 pm

Yer dreaming!! JetBlue and National? JetBlue has no desire to make acquisitions, add new a/c types, or change their business plan substantially. Doesn't help that National is in Chpt 11 bankruptcy proceedings!

CO and HP just recently completed their disentanglement when Franke bought CO's interest in the PHX based carrier. Keep current on the news man!!

DL and AS.....reasonably possible.
 
steman
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 5:41 pm

Hello guys,
you are all talking about Big Carriers taking over smaller domestic carrier.
Anyway I would like to know your opinion about possible mergers between majors.
I mean, after UA/US and AA/TW what other mergers/take over could we see.

I thought about a merger between CO and NW or Delta taking over CO.
I think an alliance between DL and CO would be very interesting even for ailrines in Europe like Air France and Alitalia which both have agreements with one of them

Ciao

Stefano
 
A330_DTW
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TWAneedsNOhelp

Mon Jan 08, 2001 10:47 pm

Hey TWA, What's up with your username? Gonna change that now that TWA NEEDS some help?
 
BostonBeau
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Mon Jan 08, 2001 11:04 pm

I thought NW already owned a controlling interest in CO? I just finished re-reading Gordon Bethune's book "From Worst to First" about CO. Have things changed??
 
DCA-ROCguy
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RE: TWAneedsNOhelp

Mon Jan 08, 2001 11:04 pm

Russ, I'm sorry to see it happen...like you I really thought TWA was going to pull through.

NW and CO are in the weakest position if the four-airline square dance transaction proposed by AA goes through. I'll need to check numbers at the DOT site but DL would still be enormous and would likely not need to make a big acquisition simply to remain competitive.

NW and CO will have to go shopping if they want to gain mass, since DOJ just canned NW's attempt to buy control of CO. Although CO and HP just disentangled as Russ noted, the lay of the land has just changed considerably and they may want to rethink their situation.

HP has just become very valuable in the new situation, despite weak management, and we may see an NW-CO bidding fight over them. HP's airbus-heavy fleet would fit NW's better (tho don't know engine compatibility--anyone?) but HP would be a perfect region fit for either carrier.

The loser of the HP bidding fight will likely go for Alaska/ Horizon.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
nwa747-400
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 1:45 am

NW/Co are actually in the strongest posistion because people are almost seeming afraid of these giant airlines who won't care at all about the passengers, will charge the highest fares we have ever seen, and be so large that it is hard to control reliability.

NW/CO remaining seperate but in a deep alliance will work best for the passengers and the bottom lines of both airlines.

I think NW will go for either AS or HP. I would rather HP because of the fleet similatrites, but the 737s would probably get canned.

All I can say is LONG LIVE THE RED TAILS!!!!!!!and at least now there is no immenent threat of a NW buyout by AA or someone else!!
 
us330
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 2:36 am

Actually, Alaska has long been rumored to be a takeover target by AA, and this would make it more competitive with UA on the west coast.
 
flashmeister
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 4:47 am

There's no way whatsoever that AA would go after AS now - they're already looking at some DoJ problems in the Carribean, not to mention upcoming labor problems and the existing conundrum of integrating ALPA staff (TWA) and APA staff (AA).

Remember the last time that AA went and played with seniority? That was a bloody mess, and those were even the same union!

I think that if anyone gets AS at this point, it would be DL, or potentially NW (but DL would be a better fit).


By the way - anyone know what NW's financial position is? Are they in the position to make acquisitions right now?
 
azjubilee
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 5:29 am

I, like another poster think CO and NW are in the best position in this mess. The whole point of the Co/NW alliance was to save CO and their employees from an impending take over by DL. The deal NW proposed (this is back in 1998 I think) would save all of Co, as opposed to the Dl full merger which would have seen the CLE hub and a lot of employees go down the toilet. Now that CO is free and clear of any problems, CO has repurchased most of the stock NW took in them. They've also come up with an agreement that NW has a bit of a say in any takeover proposals by another airline... so the issue of DL taking over CO again, is unfounded. NW won't let it happen. Now, both Co and NW have deals with HP for codesharing and NW extensively codeshares with AS and Horizon. A joint aquisition of HP by NW and CO could be rather interesting. Though I don't know if NW is into any more full mergers, rather opting for "virtual mergers." Although HP is having quite a few problems and a virtual merger would still allow those problems to continue. Remember NW has tons of cash... but a large a/c order is soon to be announced. This is exciting, however one should just speak with the facts and not speculate too much!

AZJ
 
watewate
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 5:33 am

Say NW were to buy AS or even HP. That leaves DL and CO with AS or HP to fight over. Doesn't it make sense for the two carriers to merge? I know Bethune punked off DL years ago, but if he wants to stay competitive with mega United and American, he'll have to make some sort of move. I guess the same goes for Delta. Just picture the Pacific route map- CO's Guam hub and Delta's possibility at new Inchon airport.

Just my 2c
 
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RayChuang
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 5:35 am

I personally think in terms of AS, HP and F9, here's what will soon happen:

1. AS will likely go to DL. It gives DL a MAJOR West Coast presence, something that DL really needs. That will allow DL to leverage LAX, SFO, PDX and SEA to flights to Asia.

2. HP will likely go to NW. HP and NW have very strong fleet commality, and this will give NW a presence in the Southwestern USA, something that NW has not been strong on in the past.

3. F9 will likely go to CO. This gives CO a strong US West Coast presence, and CO instantly becomes a major competitor against UA in DEN.

Meanwhile, WN will go its merry own way with its successfull short-hop flights.  
 
Guest

RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 5:57 am

Why did you leave out United Airlines.....??

baec777xx  
 
flashmeister
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 6:49 am

RayChuang, CO-F9 does make sense, as you stated. It still won't bring CO anywhere near UA, though. Consider this:

In October 2000, these were the passenger totals for each airline in DEN (total traffic is 3,242,461):
Frontier ... 260,751
Continental ... 77,134
F9+CO ... 337,885

United ... 1,992,886 (Mainline only)
AWAC ... 200,603 (United Express)
Great Lks ... 68,601 (United Express)
Skywest ... 5,234 (United Express)
United Total ... 2,267,324

It gets even worse if you look at Star carriers in general -- that comes to 2,294,900. Star controlled 70.8% of pax.

A combined F9/CO would still only have 10.4% market share.

That's the bad news.

The good news is this:
- F9 flies to 17 of the top 25 markets from DEN including US/UA strongholds Chicago, San Francisco and New York-LGA, and AA/TW strongholds Chicago, Dallas, New York-LGA, and Washington-DCA
- There is no overlap with CO (no F9 flights to IAH/CLE/EWR)
- There are plenty of OnePass holders in DEN from when CO was there before, in the 80s/early 90s, that would love to use their miles
- F9 is popular with locals, and if they could be convinced that CO would offer comparable customer service, it would be a good fit
- Combined market share has increase since last year, with Oct99 combined market share standing at 8.14%.
- No Airbii have been delivered yet (they will be by summer - but on a lease from GECAS), so CO would be able to get out of that order possibly.

They could get F9 for not a lot of money. F9's total market cap is $567 million. Even a 50% premium, which would be high IMHO, would put it at $1B.

CO should look at this... this would be a good thing. They need to move west.
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:15 am

Delta will need to pick up Alaska FAST in order to keep the Big Three from becoming the Big Two.

This will give us excellent West Coast presence and will immediately solve the problem of staging feeder flights for trans-Pacific flights from LAX/SFO/PDX/SEA/whichever of these becomes our Pacific Gateway.

Let me say.... I know a lot of you are saying DL really got caught with their pants down.... but I have a funny feeling that we've got something or other up our sleeve. Mr. Mullin is a very shrewd businessman, and he's not the type to let AA and UA pass him by.

DeltaSFO
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
flashmeister
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:22 am

Right on, DeltaSFO - AS+DL would be great --- they'd still be 2Mil RPMs or so short of AA/TW and more than that for US/UA, but they would be a major contender out west.

Now, please, DeltaSFO: please make sure that your employer (I assume you work for them) doesn't screw up their west coast presence again. I love DL, and I'm from Oregon, and they really blew it with PDX and SLC...

I know that you know Leo and pals personally, right?  
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:25 am

I'll tell Leo tonight when he comes over for dinner. LOL

DeltaSFO
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
flashmeister
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:29 am

While you're at it, DeltaSFO, beg Leo to not go after America West...
 
QantasA330
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:32 am

He guys,
It would be SUCH a SAD sight to see Frontier go, but you are right abot CO being a good fit. Frontier brings SOOOOO much life to KDEN, and they were DOING SO WELL!

Delta's Fleet mixs VERY VERY NICELY WITH CO's -
Think:777's
762's
764's
737NG's
MD-Machines
no more L10 or D10 problems - (retired)
(and then theres the regionals)
EMB-135/145's
etc.
You get my point.

What do ya think?

Kindest Regards,
QantasA330
 
QantasA330
Posts: 304
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:33 am

He guys,
It would be SUCH a SAD sight to see Frontier go, but you are right about CO being a good fit. Frontier brings SOOOOO much life to KDEN, and they were DOING SO WELL!

Delta's Fleet mixs VERY VERY NICELY WITH CO's -
Think:777's
762's
764's
737NG's
MD-Machines
no more L10 or D10 problems - (retired)
(and then theres the regionals)
EMB-135/145's
etc.
You get my point.

What do ya think?

Kindest Regards,
QantasA330
 
flashmeister
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:37 am

While DL+CO fleet would be good, DL+CO hubs would be a disaster:

CVG+CLE
DFW+IAH
JFK+EWR
ATL
SLC

Remember, to close hubs, it takes money too...
 
krisair747
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:40 am

A CO and DL merger would be great for both carriers.
Passengers are fed up with the lack of consistent service from AA and UA, while CO is giving passengers the best service in America.
If CO and F9 merged, then regardless of the amount of flights UA has out of DEN, CO would worry them. The american public trusts CO more than anyone else, and its a happy airline.
Gordon Bethume won't let any mergers by other airlines get in his way of staying the best domestic airline!
But DL and CO would be sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!
Open your heart and push the limits
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 7:45 am

Yes, DL's fleet and Co's fleet together are a beautiful thing....

I suppose we could always do a leveraged buy-out, but those things are always messy, and we wouldn't gain any West Coast presence out of it, and that's where we're weak.

AS is my pick. Plus a mammoth 777 order. Boeing is going to be dancing in the streets when all is said and done. When it rains it pours!

DeltaSFO
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 8:12 am

As for DL being last in the merger mania, thats not really anything new. DL has a history of taking their time when it comes to big changes in the industry. However, I agree with DeltaSFO that DL probably has a plan in place already and in all likelihood they've known this deal was coming for sometime. Airlines have a way of talking to each other.

I agree that Alaska would be the best fit but it would still leave DL quite a bit smaller than AA/TWA and UA/US. Maybe DL should buy Skywest outright and pull the feed right out from under UA at SFO and LAX. That would certainly create hell for UA and would really help DL reestablish itself out West. Should be interesting to see what happens.
 
cba
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 8:57 am

I think that CO should buy frontier. A CO/DL merger, although it seems great, probably won't happen. But if it did, the hub situation would look like this:

ATL stays
SLC stays
IAH stays, DL isn't as big in DFW as it was, CO is much bigger in IAH
DL is bigger in CVG, CLE goes
CO is bigger in EWR, but DL will still keep international flights out of JFK.

I think that it would be best if:
1. CO buys Frontier
2. CO joins Skyteam

CO is already partners with Air France, and would fit nicely into Skyteam's system.
 
DeltaSFO
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FlyPNS1, Cba

Tue Jan 09, 2001 9:50 am

Maybe DL should buy Skywest outright and pull the feed right out from under UA at SFO and LAX.

Now that would make my day.

Cba, I disagree with you on the New York market should a merger occur. We'd probably have to divest a lot of one of the other in order to get the merger past regulators, and JFK is our most valuable asset, along with ATL of course. We'd never give up JFK. Which means EWR would get a lot smaller.

DeltaSFO
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
cba
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DeltaSFO

Tue Jan 09, 2001 10:25 am

I doubt that CO will want to give up EWR. They operate tons of flights from their, not only domestic, but international too. DL doesn't that large of a domestic market out of JFK. This is why we'll never see a CO-DL merger. However, I would really like to see CO join Skyteam. Just imagine:
Continental, Korean, Delta, Air France, Aeromexico. What a great alliance. It would work great, as CO is already a partner with Air France.
 
ishky15
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RE: JFK/EWR

Tue Jan 09, 2001 10:51 am

I read in an articale a while back that if Delta went for Continental, as a gesture to the DoJ, they would give up their gates at JFK. I think that if they actually did merge, which is highly unlikely, this would be a good move by Delta because they can't have two New York hubs and Newark is certainly worth keeping more than JFK because Continental's already built up there much more than Delta @ JFK.
 
azjubilee
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DL, CO And NW

Tue Jan 09, 2001 12:21 pm

For you people that are waiting for a DL/CO merger, don't hold your breath. You've forgotton one large red tailed problem. NW and CO have extended the life of their very profitable alliance with COs repurchase of some shares NW owned. That transaction also allowed NW refusal rights if anyone wants to takeover CO. Now why would NW allow a DL and CO merger. Read my previous post... any DL agreement with CO would screw over a lot of people. If anything happens, DL is more likely to go for AS, though NW stands in the way of that one with many years of cooperation with AS. CO is allianced with NW and KL, they won't join skyteam. It does NOT make sense. Do some research before you make crazy assumptions.


AZJ
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 12:24 pm

Relax Azjubillee. I never said that DL and CO are going to merge or even that it is likely. Just discussing the realm of possibility, that's all.

DeltaSFO
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
cba
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 12:27 pm

Azjubilee, I know that CO won't join Skyteam, I'm just saying that it would be nice if they did, as Air France and Continental are my favorite airlines.
 
airNondo
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 4:38 pm

DL with AS... That would make DL regret pulling their PDX Asian flights, hey maybe even convince them to reinstate them. That would be nice to see, it might even convince many former-skymiles loyalists out west to come back to DL.

On another note...Imagine the free flights that'd be awarded if PDX regulars were allowed to combine their AS Mileage Plan miles with their Skymiles. Can you say "Round the World"?  
 
notdownnlocked
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 5:04 pm

How about a DL/CO/NW/AS codeshare or better yet a DL buyout of the three. Imagine the possibilities with DL flying 400 flights each day from ATL-NYC/MIA/ORD. Perhaps new twice hourly service from ATL to Toledo, Macon and South Bend along with using the ex NW 747-400's flying from ATL to CVG and MEM. DL could completely drop the AS routes just like they did with WA and move employees asap to Georgia just as before with the WA merger. The thought of this should get the DL folks in ATL running around like a pack of rabid animals.
 
alexinwa
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 5:56 pm

My prediction:

Delta to takeover/buy Alaska

The route system fits well with Delta's. It would give Delta a major presence on the west coast which they need. Also the fleets would work perfectly together. The only major difference in the types of 737NG's that they have. The new Delta would have the 737-700,-800, and the -900. The CRJ's are a perfect fit. The only odd ball plane is the DH8-400 coming into the Horizon fleet.
You mad Bro???
 
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BNE
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 6:35 pm

With all the merger mania, it would be a ideal opportunity for Delta and Northwest to buy.
If all the mergers go through.
Delta should look at buying Alaskan to give it a West Coast presence.
Northwest to buy America West, Continental still have the value of a code share.
This should then give us 4 mega carriers all with fairly good coverage around the USA.

What happens if the UA/US meger doesn't go through are all deals off.

Why fly non stop when you can connect
 
nwa747-400
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 10:12 pm

NW will most likely (if anything) buy Alaskan and Horizon as they already have extensive codehares on their flights. Plus, NW needs a bigger operation in the NW USA anyway.

 
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RayChuang
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Tue Jan 09, 2001 11:46 pm

NW will NEVER buy AS!!  

The reason is very simple: that would give NW too much control of the slots at PDX and SEA. Even the DoJ under "Dubya" would never allow this.

Now DL buying AS is a different story. That would given seriously healthy competition to NW on West Coast airports. And it gives DL the Pacific gateways necessary for future expansion into Asia.
 
azjubilee
Posts: 3380
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2000 5:26 am

RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:51 am

NW is NOT that big in SEA and PDX. They do hub flying out of PDX to only MSP and DTW and out of SEA only fly to HNL, NRT, KIX, AMS, MSP, MEM and DTW. This is hardly enough slots to create a monopoly out of PDX and SEA for NW. What about UA? They're larger in SEA and PDX than NW is... Right now it might look like NW is huge, its because of the codeshare with AS, but those aren't NW slots. AS would be a great match for NW, except for the fleet... they are totally different. Not one, match. NW has disposed of the MD80 family and doesn't operate the 737. The fleet match with DL is better, but NW is way stronger in the pacific and could use SEA/PDX as a pacific gateway to compete with UA. NW offers a much better service to Japan than UA, so this is easily achieveable.

AZJ
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:54 am

NW won't buy AS.

I'm sure Delta realizes the need for an AS merger if it intends to stay competitive. Knowing that, I think they will pick AS up at almost any cost. Even if it means outbidding NW.

DeltaSFO
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
awaramper
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Wed Jan 10, 2001 6:13 am

I can't really see CO going after HP. We just bought back the last of the shares that CO had on us. CO management knows first hand how screwed up Bill Franke and his band of idiots are. They know that it would take a lot of time and money to fix the problems we have. However, I do like the idea of NW and HP. We do seem to match up rather well. It's gonna be a wild ride for a while and it will be interesting to see how it all turns out.
 
twa
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Wed Jan 10, 2001 6:23 am

Heres what I think would be good for Delta:

Delta to acquire America West. That would solve Delta's problem in the west with Hubs in LAX & PHX. One big problem is Delta is going to be 100% Boeing. HP has a large Fleet of Airbus Aircraft.

Delta to aquire Continental: Would make one hell of a Fleet!!!!! Delta probably would dump DFW and move to IAH. DL would dump CLE in favor of CVG. I dont know about NYC though.

-TWA
 
Ryefly
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Wed Jan 10, 2001 7:06 am

I really don't think that CO,DL and NW need to buy anyone. They are respectable sizes already and if they are able to offer better performace over AA and UA then their load factors will still be very high. The scary thing about all this buying is if there is a major strike by a mega carrier it is going to be one heck of a mess for travelers. Actually, we have seen many airlines grow too fast and watched them go bankrupt a few years later. I wouldn't be surprised in the not too distant future, UA or AA will fall victim to this aswell. At the very least downsize back to it's current size.
 
cba
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RE: What's Next For CO, DL, NW After AA Move?

Wed Jan 10, 2001 7:33 am

The best idea for CO/NW:
1. A CO/Frontier Merger
2. A NW/America West Merger
3. A triple NW/KLM/CO alliance
 
krisair747
Posts: 227
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DeltaSFO

Wed Jan 10, 2001 9:14 am

DeltaSFO,
Co does realize how important JFK is to DL. Just as it is important to CO as we have started JFK-CLE and JFK-IAH. If AA gets TWa's slots in kennedy, then DL would have to stay to keep its presents. CO is investing over a billion dollars in a new International terminal in EWR and a train link from EWR to Manhattan. Passengers can get a train from Manhattan and get dropped off in EWR! AA will and does hate this! Because Kennedy has nothing like it. Cle will go and CVG will stay which is fine, but CO will have to work with DL in the NYC market. AA eat your hearts out!!
Open your heart and push the limits
 
krisair747
Posts: 227
Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2000 1:06 pm

AzJubilee

Wed Jan 10, 2001 9:21 am

Hello,
So you know, CO brought all shares back from NW!
We are our own Company which can make our own choises! We do have a codeshare with NW till about 2025, but only a codeshare. So no redtails will be making any choises for CO.
Open your heart and push the limits