teahan
Posts: 4993
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 1999 11:18 pm

Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 5:16 am

Hey,

It had been a few months since such a post. What are your A380 customer predictions?

Current:

Emirates
Singapore Airlines
Qantas
FED EX
Virgin
ILFC
Air France

Possible In The Near Future:

Cathay Pacific
Lufthansa
JAL (put a big Boeing ? next to that)
ANA (put a big Boeing ? next to that)
Atlas Air
United (again no matter what people say)
Thai
Air NewZeland
Northwest (put a big ? next to that)
Corsair (Nouvelles Frontieres)
KLM (put a big Boeing ? next to to that)

Possible In The VERY FAR Future (Financial Problems etc..)

SAA
Air India (I said very very far future)
Alitalia (put a big ? next to that)
Malaysian
BA (no matter what people say, their main rival Virgin ordered it)

I am sure I forgot a few and that I may be wrong in many of my predictions. I am just a bit too optimistic.

I would love to hear your predictions.

KInd Regards,
Jeremiah Teahan
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 5:23 am

My subjective predictions...

1. Cathay Pacific - For some reason I still think they would need the capacity.

2. KLM - It seems that they've got more traffic than we commonly think  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

3. BA - I agree with Jeremiah. Speedbird strikes back!  Laugh out loud

4. JAL - One of the most assertive in contributing ideas on how to utilize the space aboard an A380. Think separate gents/ladies lavs - nothing new, but still fun.  Big thumbs up
 
avion
Posts: 2126
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 1:28 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 5:25 am

Swissair!!!
 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 5:43 am

Korean
UPS
Asiana
EVA
 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:11 am

I wouldn't be so confident

re: Lufthansa

For one they are reportedly considering the 747-x.

A380 much less likely than the 747-X, Boeing already have planes ready to convert Airbus have nothing.

Maveric Virtual Airlines

 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:24 am

Maveric,

you wrote:
'A380 much less likely than 747-X, Boeing already have planes ready to convert Airbus have nothing.'

I'm not sure how to take this, but it seems you're not fully aware of the fact that the A380 has officially been launched by Airbus, and therefore WILL be built (7 customers have so far ordered 60 of them)

About Lufthansa considering the 747X: Every potential customer for the A380 naturally also considers the competing product, thus also Lufthansa.
 
teahan
Posts: 4993
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 1999 11:18 pm

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:25 am

Hey Maveric,

That B747X plan is for cargo planes not passengers planes. Remember AF also ordered the B747X for cargo and A380 for passengers.

Juul,

Yes I definitely forgot those 4. Korean will probably, Asiana there is a reasonable chance, EVA there is a reasonable chance and UPS. Hmmmm, I would put a big Boeing ? over them.

Avion,

I would love to see SR order it but it is not likely.

Kind Regards,
Jeremiah Teahan
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:29 am

Juul:

I am perfectly aware of the A380 orders, I just think it likely that Airbus will collapse/fold/die/etc. at the cost and that Boeing will ride through unscathed.

Maveric Virtual Airlines
 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:31 am

Teahan,

AF did not order the 747X, they ordered the 747-400ER (former 747-400X) freighter, which is just essentially a heavier version of the 747-400. It is not to be confused with the 747X, which is much more than an improved -400.

Greetings from the heart of Europe
 
AC320
Posts: 2809
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 11:29 pm

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:47 am

Maveric,

Are you refering to the entire Airbus corporation collapsing, or just the A380 program? Still, you'd have to pull a rabbit out of your tiny, little head before either happens.
fuddle duddle
 
myself
Posts: 206
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 10:04 pm

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 8:52 am

Bill Gates !
 
747-451
Posts: 2327
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2000 5:50 am

RE: Your VLA Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 9:25 am

Very Large airplanes....(A380 (which IS coming) or 747X (which I HOPE comes) Note: the A380 is an excellent plane and I cant wait to fly it; hey, I'm a Boeing fan, but hat's off to Airbus for the coup de' gras!)

DEFINITELY!!!!

Lufthansa, United, Northwest, JAL, ANA, Singapore, Emirates, Qantas, FED EX, Virgin, ILFC, Air France, BA (they certainly have some routes to use it and screw Branson), Air Atlanta Iceland (who could make some major $$$ by leasing it out to others who may be sqeamish about actually buying their own; try before you buy), GPA, GATX, one of the African carriers (I don't know which, but I could guess that frequencies to UK/Us could make it worth their while)

Probably:

Atlas, Polar, Saudia, Korean, Asiana, Air China, USAir (conditionally; if United does aquire them, I could see it used under perhaps a "shuttle" flight scheme, perhaps it would make sense), UPS,
Hawaiian (time to dump those DC-10-10's and -30's), Japan Air System

Not:

SAA, Alitalia, Air Canada, American (they don't even use the 747-400), Delta, Malaysia, Philipines, Mexicana, AeroMexico.

Some interesting observations:

I can see many airlines using these on high density routes. I could also see that airlines may buy them and wet/dry lease them off season (like for the Hadj). I also think that some of the carter operators could find use for them too. The VLA is a compelling issue.

I can see US carriers like USAir (or whatever it becomes amalgamated with) use it on some shuttle routes like on the east coast. (there are alternate airports that could accomodate it near where it's A320/737's currently operate eg JFK/Dulles as opposed to LGA/Reagan National) This would be quite a scenario since an airport like LGA, the worst in the universe, cannot accomodate more frequency and is facing cuts in the numbers of flights in and out. Instead, you fill could fill up an A380, and in that one flight knock off 3 737/A320 flights--plus use airports that are actually somewhat easier to get to. (if you think traffic to JFK on the Belt is bad you should try getting in and out fo LGA, which is absolutely horrible and disgusting all the time and beyond unbareable if a Mets game lets out at Shea!!!!).

sign my nome d'plume A380-451 (LOL) (747-451)
 
BH346
Posts: 3164
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2000 5:50 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 9:49 am

I believe some people from Airbus recently came to Japan to try to get JAL interested in Airbus. Perhaps Airbus will get lucky, and JAL will order the A3XX, breaking their loyalty to Boeing?

BH346
Northwest Airlines - Some People Just Know How to Fly
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8103
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 12:03 pm

Yes: BA, United, Cathay, Air Canada/Canadian (to Asia), UPS, Thai, ANA, Koreanair, Corsair, Lufthansa.

A third party wetlease ad hoc operator like Air Atlanta Icelandic or Gulf Falcon is quite likely.

Maybe: JAL (they need capacity but are Boeing through and through), Northwest, Eva, China Air Lines, Air China.

For the 744ER: Delta, AA (don't bet against it), KLM, Air NZ, SAA.

For the stretched A340: SAS, Iberia, Swissair, TAP, Olympic.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
Guest

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 12:06 pm

What about Air Canada? Do you think they will buy 74Xs, A380s, or stick to A340 variants for their jumbos?
 
HlywdCatft
Posts: 5232
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2001 6:21 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 3:52 pm

USAirways Shuttle using A380s????? Their two main airports for Shuttle are DCA which does not allow widebodies and JFK nothing larger now than a 767.

The main purpose of the shuttle is to take people on frequent flights, not just one flight per day.

I apologize for sounding rude, but that would never happen even if USAirways survives. Hawaiian Air, less of a chance I think. I somehow doubt that their flights are filled to capacity now.

The only US passenger companies likely to use them are Northwest and United.

Cargo- Fed Ex, Atlas and UPS. I could see the US Airforce possibly getting them to replace the C-5
 
Ryefly
Posts: 1324
Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2000 7:56 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 5:05 pm

Ah lets see...
Pan Am 3
Midway
Midwest Express
Southwest
MetroJet
Delta Express

Oh! the A380, I'm sorry. My picks would be UPS, JAL, BA, UA.

The US Airways shuttle? LOL, That was a good one. Seeing that DCA doesn't allow widebodies and the ammount of room at LGA I don't think that will happen. Plus if you had two A380's going on that route how could you get them in unload 600+ passengers board 600+ passengers and back out every hour? The largest plane US Airways would might consider for those routes would perhaps be the A321 and thats not likely. They would rather have those planes packed out every hour.
 
watewate
Posts: 2216
Joined: Sun Nov 12, 2000 6:00 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 5:28 pm

Lufthansa and Cathay. I think all the airlines with the potential to place big orders have signed on already. If Boeing doesn't go ahead with 747X, that'd be a different story. It would mean that ANA and JAL would be on for a big order, as well as all the other Asian carriers.
I can't see Korean Air and Asiana ordering A380 at all. Korean tie with US aside, Korean Air will have hard time convincing public that they can handle a whole new a/c type after their recent flurry of accidents. Asiana's growth has slowed somewhat and all the expansion will come through their acquisition of numerous 777s and a few 747s. Asiana operates 767s (that's right... 767 and not 747) to LAX sometimes and it still needs to covince its own people (Koreans) that OZ is the better way to fly.
Atlas Air? That's a tough one. But I think they'll go for Boeing as they have a massive 747F fleet and the type of cargo they carry suits 747s better than A380.
 
SailorOrion
Posts: 1959
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2001 5:56 pm

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 6:44 pm

I guess in the cargo sector, the 747X (when built) will be the winner, except airbus installes a door for outsized cargo. Why is the An124 so successful? can carry outsized cargo, short takeoff roll (much less than a 380), can land on a real rotten runway, and doesn't need complicated equipment. The 380F is very nice for the world's cargo hubs, but outside....nah!
 
SInGAPORE_AIR
Posts: 11619
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2000 4:06 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 6:52 pm

I think some of us or over stepping hte gun here (or whatever). Not to be dissing you or anything I'm just saying. SOrry if it sounds like it

Ihardly think that all these airlines, Air China, Mexicana, SAA and whatever are going to buy the plane. One, I don't think they will need such an aircraft and two, I think only the major airlines will buy it. One because of price and two because of the status. These "little" (for the sake of this post) airlines don't need such a big thing.

That's my €0.02

Correct me if I'm wrong though.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
DatamanA340
Posts: 535
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 7:02 pm

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:08 pm

Now: Emirates, Singapore, QANTAS, FedEx, Virgin Atlantic, Air France.

Soon (maybe until 2002): Lufthansa, Cathay Pacific

Until it flies: Korean Air (It needs, but after 744F action. For ICN-NRT/HKG/LAX), United, Alitalia, Thai, ANA, Eva

A little later: Swissair, Northwest, NZ and Ansett, Delta, China Airlines, Air China, Air Canada

Have interests: JAL (It needs most, but too loyal to American tycoon.) BA (too) BM International, Asiana, South African (for Star) JAS (If it goes international), Saudia

No need: Air India, Philippine, MAS, American, Aer Lingus, Olympic, Dragon, Silk, Southwest and Iraqi. (Not no more  Big grin)

** No cargo airlines prediction. I give up!!
 
gkirk
Posts: 23349
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

RE: Your A380 Customer Predictions?

Sun Feb 18, 2001 7:58 pm

I dont think you will see BA ever buying the A3XX but I could see them buying the 747-X. Simple fact is they are going Airbus for short haul but are staying committed to Boeing for long haul a/c.
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!

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