Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sat Feb 24, 2001 7:08 pm

OK...a few more questions here.

Does anyone have any ideas what aircraft Ethiopian Airlines would need in their fleet?

Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Addis Tribune (Addis Ababa)
February 23, 2001

By Staff Reporter
Addis Ababa

AIRBUS announced its 20-year forecast of the African Jetliner market saying the airlines in Africa will need a total of 484 passenger aircraft and 23 new factory-built freighters over the next twenty years.

"Our forecast for Africa covers the region's 23 major airlines, which currently operate a total of 273 passenger jets with almost 50,000 seats and 13 dedicated freighters, together with an additional 29 cargo carriers operating another 55 freighters," Adam Brown, AIRBUS vice president market forecasts said at a press conference in Addis Ababa.

"We believe that Ethiopian airlines, with its extensive route network, modernised fleet and well deserved high reputation, will be able to increase its share of the traffic in markets where it competes, and therefore to grow more rapidly than the average" says Brown.

An official of the Ethiopian Airlines (EAL) meanwhile said the airlines will decide on which aircraft company to deal with and whether to buy AIRBUS or BOEING aircraft in the coming three months.

The AIRBUS vice president, who was here last week to convince EAL officials on the quality of AIRBUS products said "we look forward to contributing to the future growth of Ethiopian Airlines, and consequently to the development of Addis Ababa as an increasingly important regional air transport hub."

With the opening of the new runway, Ethiopia will become an important hub for African air transport, Tore Prang, press relations officer reiterated at the press conference.

Asked about the basis of the forecast, Brown said it was driven by economic forecast by experts outside AIRBUS. AIRBUS estimates that the value of the 507 new aircraft delivered to airlines and cargo carriers in Africa during the next twenty years will be worth a total of $35 billion.

Headquartered in Toulouse, France, AIRBUS was established in December 1970 and has registered an annual turnover of US $17.2 billion in 2000.
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sat Feb 24, 2001 8:25 pm

What the above report has left out though is that 80% of the existing African airline passenger fleet will have to be replaced over the next twenty years.

Individual markets serving the African region will grow at varying rates. The highest growth was an annual rate of 5.9% " predicted for the dynamic markets linking Africa with China and the Pacific region".

Adam Brown, Airbus's vice president responsible for market forecasts said: "In the long run the airlines of Africa face a bright future."

SAA are expected to order a new long haul fleet by the end of this year.

Mike Smith, Boeing's sales director for Africa, said in a recent interview that, although it was offereing updated versions of the Boeing 747, it expected SAA to be interested in the new long range Boeing 777 which competed with the Airbus A340.

Both aircraft carry fewer passengers than the 747, but are suitable for SAA's present strategy of frequent flights to important hub airports such as Atlanta, London or Hong Kong from which passengers can be carried on local flights by allied airlines.

SA Airlink and BA/Comair will need more planes for their planned expansion into Africa and Intensive Air, the new low cost South African airline, has urgently been trying to acquire more. They presently use Fokker F28s on the Johannesburg - Cape Town run.

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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sat Feb 24, 2001 11:29 pm

I think Africa not only needs new jetliners, but also a LOT of new smaller planes to operate out of smaller airports.

That's why a plane such as the Iranian-built IRAN-140 could be very popular in Africa, where there is a very desperate need to replace the large numbers of decrepit An-24/26 planes flying on that continent. This is especially in light of several African countries banning the An-24/26 after a number of accidents blamed on poor aircraft maintainance.
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sun Feb 25, 2001 2:29 am

Well, maybe the russians will be able to do something in Africa. I think the Tu-334, 204 and 214 may be nice competitors as they are a lot cheaper and almost similar to the existing western products.

RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sun Feb 25, 2001 2:54 am

Ethiopian airlines currently has its 2 767-200s for sale. Ethiopian's short haul aircraft, in the approximate lower 100 seat category, consist of 2 737-200s. We will wait and see what they will do.
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sun Feb 25, 2001 2:58 am

Ethiopian bought A340 several years ago, it was painted nut not taken up, maybe they will buy another one

I also believe that new Tupolevs could be popular in Africa
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sun Feb 25, 2001 3:56 am

Well seeing they have 2 767-300s, I think the 767-400LR would be a nice choice. But do they need the capacity? I do not know thier load factors on the Addis-EWR route, but they did state that they will have at least double their current fleet in 15 years.
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Sun Feb 25, 2001 4:11 am

Airbus is high.

Africa is the poorest continent in the world. Consider that almost all of its airlines have had financial troubles (except SAA), such as Air Afrique, Nigeria Airways, Air Zaire (Scibe-Zaire), the list goes on. I doubt many if any of these airlines can afford new Airbus freighters (the African freight market is booming.

500 planes is a lot. What airline would all of these planes go to? SAA? They are the only airline that could very REMOTELY need HALF this amount over the next 20 years. That is a ludicrous idea at best.

Boeing rules.

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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Mon Feb 26, 2001 12:27 am

To L-1011-500

Africa might be poor but i can guarantee you that it is an untapped market.

TO RayChuang
YOu would never want some1 in the US to fly in an IRAN-140 or a CIS built aircrat. So dont expect people in Africa 2 either. They might be poor but if they can afford to fly then they can afford to fly in A Western Built aircraft

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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Mon Feb 26, 2001 1:16 am


You are right. The IRAN-140 has great potential on the continent. Here you have a relatively cheap aircraft, and one which is comparable to the ATR and other regional props; and what more, over the long term is cheaper to operate than ATR, Dash 8s, etc.


Yes, Africa may be a reasonably poor continent, but if you look closely at the airlines, especially the cargo airlines you talk of not being able to afford Airbus freighters, you will see that they are more often than not backed with money from the UK, Belgium and France.

Airlines such as Ethiopian Airlines are GREAT airlines, but people misjudge these airlines just because they are from a country which is relatively poor.


What is wrong with wanting people in the US to fly on a Russian built aircraft? It is only because the "average" American is so dopey and relates Russian-built with JUNK! How far from the truth is this? The Il-96M and Tu-204 with modifications would be the perfect CHEAP aircraft for the American market....but how much do you think the Yankee government would allow a Russian built airliner get sales in America? They have enough problems with even allowing Airbus to compete in that market.




Mon Feb 26, 2001 1:31 am

Do you know where I can get info and performance data on the IRAN-140? Website or something?
Thanks, Tom
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Mon Feb 26, 2001 10:51 am

Let me explain why a small turboprop airliner/cargo carrier akin to the IRAN-140 and ATR-42/72 is going to be real necessary and extremely popular in Africa.

Think about it--the vast majority of the African continent have NO roads and rail lines, and the only way to get around is by plane flying to airstrips that are not much better than graded dirt or improved gravel in quality.

The An-24/26 planes from ex-USSR stocks ended up in Africa because they were designed to operate from such poor-quality airstrips. The big downside to that was that the planes that made it to Africa were already worn out in terms of airframe and engine life and were often poorly maintained. This resulted in way too many serious accidents, and in fact a number of countries in central Africa banned their operations. I think they may be banned from Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates for the same reason.

This is where a NEW plane that can operate from poor-quality airstrips are going to sell like crazy in Africa. There has been substantial ATR-42/72 sales in Africa for this reason, but the cost of the ATR's mitigate against many operators in Africa from buying them. The IRAN-140, on the other hand, will probably be sold at very low cost, which means a modern plane is now within the financial reach of many African operators. With the grounding of the An-24/26 fleet, there is a major pent-up need for a small turboprop transport, and the Ukrainian-Iranian consortium that built the IRAN-140 could be swamped with orders for this type of airliner.
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Tue Feb 27, 2001 3:24 am

I guess you could look at 500 planes over the next 20 years as an average of 25 aircraft a year, which is not that much from a Western viewpoint, but in Africa that may seem like a lot. However, considering that Africa includes SA, Mauritius, Nigeria, all of Arab North Africa including Egypt, Ethiopia, etc - countries that could potentially add to or replace their current fleets - I guess its not totally out of the realm of possibility. Plus, we are not looking at 500 large aircraft only. The number includes shorthaul commuter type aircraft which could meet the budgetary constraints of African carriers.
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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Tue Feb 27, 2001 4:03 am

Ironically, reliable and convenient air travel in Africa is made more necessary by the very primative state of the infrastructure in most poorly developed countries. With roads being challenging at best, and un-usable during the rainy season. With rail-lines expensive to maintain, and even more expensive to build, air travel is critical to the economic development of African countries. One telletale fact of this dependance on air is the large air freight market.

In Angola, where I was born, the government oil company, Sonangol, has chartered a World Airways MD-11 for service between Luanda and Houston, as convenient air transportation is not otherwise available between these important oil centers. The mining industry is completely dependent on air travel for transporting workers and supplies. In a country with a road and rail system that is totally disfunctional, air travel is the primary means of contiuing economic development.

Not being an expert, it is difficult for me to say exactly what type of aircraft are needed. I believe, as others have said, that there likely a huge need for dependable turbo-props that are rugged, reliable and easily maintained in poor conditions.

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RE: Airbus Forecasts 500 New Aircraft Needed In Africa

Tue Feb 27, 2001 5:28 am

I hate the bias against Russian types by Americans. There was a thread here earlier today where loads of us in the strongest possible terms expressed a desire to fly on a passenger 707. Now, a Tu154, 204 or Il86 is statistically safer, but I bet half the 707 fans are in the "Russian a/c are unsafe rattletraps" camp. It's bollocks, you don't need to be American (or Western European) to build a safe transport. The IRAN-140 would be perfectly adequate for an airline in Africa just as it would be in Tajikistan, New South Wales, Panama or Kansas.
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