yqtyyz
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Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2001 3:36 am

Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 8:20 am

After reading one topic where one poster suggested that Singapore would become bypassed soon by longer- ranged planes, and all the different new city pairings announced in the news sections, I was just curious as to which current hubs worldwide will become obsolete in the near future?

Perhaps they will be affected by longer-range aircraft, capacity constraints, or other business considerations.
 
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 8:29 am

Chicago! Whoops! Did I say that outloud? Rono is going to kill me!

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dutchjet
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 8:31 am

Interesting question that you raise. I honestly do not think that we will see any major hubs dropped in the future due to longer-range planes; when the 744, 343, etc were introduced, airlines could eliminate stops in Alaska on Europe-Japan flights, in India or the MidEast for Europe-Asia flights, and in the Pacific Islands on US-Australia flights. But most of these stops where more techinical in nature, the aircraft stopped to fuel and not many pax were interested in the intermediate stopover point.

If new longer-range planes could fly Europe-Austalia nonstop, I do not think we will see diminished service to Singapore, for example, since lots of people want to go to Singapore. I also question how many new routes we will really see: US east cost to Asian cities and US west coast to singapore/kuala lumpur are alway mentioned, but how many other new routes are we really talking about?
 
yqtyyz
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 9:51 am

Oops, I didn't mean rendered obsolete, but rather, at least see a reduction in traffic/passenger volumes. Hopefully that makes things a little clearer.
 
SSTjumbo
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 10:13 am

Chicago will not lose any domestic buisness. Int'l opps will probably drop. BTW, I am personally hoping that there will be a western Europe-Hawaii with these new longer range aircraft if such a route doesn't already exist.
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BLACK BOX
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 2:18 pm

Those with high T/F and low O&D traffic.
 
trintocan
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Mon Jul 09, 2001 2:20 pm

ORD's international traffic is unlikely to fall as it is a major O&D destination for the Midwest of the USA and is a major centre of commerce.

A Western Europe - Hawaii route seems unlikely as the Meditarranean, Canary Islands, Azores and Caribbean provide for most European travellers seeking the beach.

Trintocan.
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D L X
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Tue Jul 10, 2001 1:10 am

"A Western Europe - Hawaii route seems unlikely"

Even East Coast US - Hawaii routes are unlikely since the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Virgin Islands are so close by. Why waste money going to Hawaii?


About hubs diminishing? Not likely. As more long range jets are brought into service, more fracturing will occur, but that will just open more markets for the current hubs as well. As in, although the stop in Singapore for Europe-Australia flights can be removed, there will also be the addition of long flights beginning or ending in Singapore, from North America. Also, there are very few examples of flights being dropped when an overflying route is created. For instance, UA opened up ORD-HKG. But, you can still fly with them on ORD-NRT-HKG and ORD-SFO-HKG. It's just another option.
 
Teej13
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Tue Jul 10, 2001 1:20 am

I think traffic through YUL will diminish somewhat as foreign carriers opt to trade for Toronto landing slots.
 
flyyul
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Teej13

Tue Jul 10, 2001 5:05 am

There are only 2 major carriers that have not opted for Toronto from YUL and those are Sabena and Swissair.

We are Canada 2nd fastest growing airport of 5million pax or more...

Cheers,
Mark
 
heavymetal
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RE: Which Hubs Will Become Obsolete In The Future?

Tue Jul 10, 2001 5:34 am

This question brings up the A380 question as well...

If you believe traffic into major hubs will thin as smaller city pairs increase, then you'll probably think the A380 is a machine too large, too late...

If you believe that the world's largest cities will continue to be served by premier gateway airports that are feeders to their respective countries, then the A380 will be needed and plentiful.

Here in the states, I wouldn't say the hubs are in peril, but I think you'll see stratification of flights into the Boston area,(Pan Am is onto something with Pease, I think) , plus thier new St. Louis home will relieve some AA induced headaches at ORD.

The biggest 'what ifs' are if Homestead in South Florida had been approved to be that area's fourth major commercial jetport (which looks like it wont happen)....and 'what if' Cleveland had said screw Hopkins and decided on an all new home for its' brilliantly run hub carrier, Continental. (looks like Hopkins is here to stay too.)