United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 12:29 pm

Hey guys!

Boeing has shelved its B 747X Program some time ago. However, they also stated that they would protect its ability to build a larger B 747, when customers indicate that there is a need.

But I think sooner or later, Boeing will start pushing its B 747X a lot harder. Although they never took it seriously....

Actually, what I believe is that the B 747X Stretch is the failure, not the B 747X. Why?

The B 747X can carry 50 extra passengers than the B 747-400. And it is the world's longest ranged airliner. Therefore, there is a good chance that, when it comes to a point that the earliest B 747-400s need to be replaced, airlines may look into the B 747X.

I have spoken with a few Airline Operation Managers and they believe that the B 747X will take off some day. Airlines will probably replace some of its B 744s with B 747X, and the rest with B 747-400ER.

Comments?
 
BA
Posts: 10134
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 12:56 pm

The oldest 744 is barely 12 years old. The 744 is designed to serve airlines for 25-30 years. It isn't even half way!

The 744 is still a new aircraft. What you have to also consider is the amount of flying hours. Not just the age of the aircraft.

In terms of flying time, the 744 is an EXTREMELY young aircraft.

A 5 year old 744 is about as old as a 3 year old 737.

The 744 still has a long way to go before airlines even begin making plans for replacement.

Therefore, its un-certain what aircraft will be used to replace the 744.

Maybe no aircraft will ever replace the 744. Maybe, airlines will order smaller 300 seat aircraft like the 777 to replace the 744.

Maybe, airlines will replace the 744 with the Airbus A380.

Maybe your right! They'll use the 747X IF it ever materializes to replace the 744.

Who knows, it is simply too early to start making predicitions.

Within 20 to 25 years, who knows what new aircraft will be flying.

Maybe Bombardier will have developed a 500 seat airliner.

Its too early to say anything now.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 1:02 pm

True. I agree with you.

The B 747-400 will remain in service for a VERY long time. At least for another 30-40 years.
 
BA
Posts: 10134
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 1:16 pm

Mmmmmm......30-40 years is pushing it. But anything is possible.

Just like the US AirForce is planning on keeping there B-52 bombers until 2030.

Regards.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 1:19 pm

Well, there will be new B 747s coming out. Don't worry BA.

Boeing has stated that they will keep the B 747 Production line for at least 30 years.

 
B747-437B
Posts: 8777
Joined: Thu May 30, 2002 6:54 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 1:30 pm

dezmond - do you have to regurgitate this exact topic EVERY month? I mean c'mon... HKG isn't THAT boring is it?
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
BA
Posts: 10134
Joined: Fri May 19, 2000 11:06 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 1:31 pm

Thats what they said 5 years ago.

However, its uncertain now. They might keep the production line for only 10 more years, or maybe even 40 years.

Its uncertain.

The 747 generally has an uncertain future, especially since the 777 has stolen many of the 747's orders.

Regards.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
dennys
Posts: 662
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 11:19 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 10:41 pm

unfortunately the 777 - 300 LR mifgt replace the 744s ... regards Dennys
 
Guest

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Sun Aug 05, 2001 11:10 pm

BA- The USAF says it wants its B-52s until 2030. A few years ago, they wanted them until 2005. In a few more years, we'll all be beaming ourselves up, and the USAF will still be flying their B-52s.  Wink/being sarcastic
 
Notar520AC
Posts: 1517
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2001 6:53 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 3:07 am

I hope the -400s stay for a long time.

-Notar520AC
BMW - The Ultimate Driving Machine
 
Boeing Nut
Posts: 5078
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2001 2:42 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 10:05 am

Guys, first of all, the 747 will NEVER be replaced. There may be another aircraft that suceeds it, but it will never be replaced.

I honestly believe deep down that the 747X will launch first as a cargo version first. Then, I think the non-stretch version will be the first version of the 747X pax airplane to come out.

My two cents,

Regards!!
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 10:33 am

The B 747 will never be replaced. You are right! The B 747-400ER as well as the B 747X will probably succeed the B 747-400.

But the 400 will live on for a long time.

As for the B 747X Stretch, I suppose Boeing will start selling it seriously when the market indicates a need for it.

My two cents!
 
airlinelover
Posts: 5287
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2001 8:03 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 10:40 am

I think that when the B747X is finally pushed by Boeing, the first customers will be those like NWA who have had a long history with Boeing, and the 747. Yes, some will steer towards the A380, but a lot (in my opinion) will go with what has worked in the past- the 747.

Chris
Lets do some sexy math. We add you, subtract your clothes, divide your legs and multiply
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 4:57 pm

United may order it. So as JAL.

Who knows?  Smile
 
catpac
Posts: 226
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 6:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 8:30 pm

Boeing 747-400 is old. Yes ok, an airline can buy a new one today for some 150mil, but a lot of the design originates from the pre 1969....? Hence Cathay is replacing their 744 within the next five years, unless they might decide for an agressive upgrade.

I think that latest aircraft like the B777/A330/340, etc are much more reliable and environment friendly compared to the 747.

So I would doubt that many leading airlines will be flying the 744 after 2010, especially since new aircraft are coming out, like the B777LR, A340/500-600, A380,...an airline operating the 744 would find it hard to compete against more modern equipment that some carriers will be operating.
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 9:18 pm

Cathay Pacific changes their mind from time to time. As you may know, it is very likely that, they will drop the A 380 in favour of the Sonic Cruiser, according to the CEO of Cathay Pacific. Therefore, the only aircraft which can fill up their flights from HKG to TPE/LAX/YVR etc would be the B 747-400.

They may order the B 747-400ER, or upgrade their B 747-400.

Besides, the B 747-400ER, as well as the B 747X have gone through massive amount of improvements. Therefore, they are able to compete with today's aircraft. Boeing said that their B 747X is as advanced as the A 380.

Just my 2 cents!
 
Guest

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 9:31 pm

The Boeing 747-400 is still relatively new. With the launch of the Boeing 747-400ER, I think that Boeing would keep the production line open for at least another 10 years.

However, they forecast a much less demand for airliners in the 500+ seat market than Airbus, which has already launched their A380 superjumbo. I think that the A380 would only be able to make money by deploying it between large city pairs, and that all others would be served by the medium-sized airliners like the 777/767 and A340/330. Having these smallers ones allow more flexibility for the airline, as they can be switched to serve any type of city, and when capacity is needed on the majors, they can just add frequency. The A380 would be a money-maker only in the peak seasons.

So, will a formal replacement for a Boeing 747-400 be developed in the future? I don't think so. It would probably be eventually replaced by the A380s or the medium-sized airliners. If netiher are not the case, the 777-300LR would be able to take the place anyway...

FlyTriStar
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Mon Aug 06, 2001 9:41 pm

First, the B 747-400ER. Then B 747X. Afterthat we will probably get the NLA (Formerly B 747-700). And finally, we may get the BWB.

Who knows? The B 747 will be in production for at least 30 years. That's what Boeing has stated. They are very proud of the program and will continue to improve its Flagship.

Regards.
 
catpac
Posts: 226
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 6:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Tue Aug 07, 2001 6:21 am

United Airline,

The sonic cruiser is still only an imagination aircraft saved on Boeing's computer, so how can Cathay already dump their A380 options for something that has not even been fully defined, and if that is the case, where did you get that info from?

 
Whistler
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 8:12 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Tue Aug 07, 2001 6:41 am

Also the SC is a totally different aircraft than the A380. The SC is small.
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Tue Aug 07, 2001 10:29 am

Cathay Pacific 'MAY' drop the A 380 in favour of the SC. They may.........
 
catpac
Posts: 226
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 6:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Tue Aug 07, 2001 12:06 pm

That makes a little more sense!
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Tue Aug 07, 2001 4:40 pm

Yes. According to what the CEO has said.

Regards.
 
User avatar
RayChuang
Posts: 8007
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2000 7:43 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Tue Aug 07, 2001 11:41 pm

I think right now Boeing is looking at this possibility:

1. Build a 747 with the same fuselage length as the original 747X proposal, but with a slight area ruling of the fuselage to reduce high-speed drag.

2. Use the 747X wing.

3. Use Rolls-Royce Trent 972 or Engine Alliance GP7200 engines.

The result: a 747 with the same seating capacity as the 747X (e.g. 50 more pax than the 747-400) but with Mach 0.90-0.91 economical cruising speed and range approaching 9,000 nautical miles. Boeing will likely call it the 747-700 (not 747-500 or 747-600 designations since they were used for the original stretch proposals of the 1990's).

I think these airlines might be interested in the longer-range, faster 747:

Northwest Airlines
United Airlines
British Airways
South African Airways
Japan Airlines
Korean Air
Air China
Cathay Pacific Airways
Qantas (maybe)
Air India

This new 747 could offer most of the advantages of the Sonic Cruiser but with at least 744 carrying capacity and 777-200LR range.
 
catpac
Posts: 226
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 6:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Wed Aug 08, 2001 12:16 am

source please??? I would not believe that a B747 could manage economical cruise at M0.91, I think that is unpossible for such a jet.
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8101
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Wed Aug 08, 2001 12:30 am

"Boeing said that their B747X is as advanced as the A380." Sure they did. But hardcore Boeing customers such as Singapore, Qantas, Virgin et al don't seem to feel the same, now do they?

How can Boeing sell 700+ 744s (more than the -100, -200 and -300 combined) in a mere decade then turn around and say there is no market for a VLA? Absolute bollocks.

I don't think the 747X will be launched by a freighter. Who is going to buy a brand new hi-tech (ish) 747 with loads of 744s waiting to be converted as airlines rush to buy A380s? New build freighters have always been outnumbered by converted passenger planes and this is certainly true of the 747.

I think the 747 future is uncertain. JAL is the only airline I can think of that aren't likely to buy the A380. United are very likely to, they love the Airbus narrowbodies and certainly need the capacity offered by the A380. Northwest are the same, huge AI narrowbody fleet and in need of big planes across the Pacific.

Lucky for Airbus, most airlines make fleet purchasing decisions based on economics, and there is no way a 747 is going to be as efficient as a design 30 years younger. It is impossible. Boeing can either show the entrepreneurial spirit that kept them on top in the 60s and 70s and build a new big plane, or rest on former glories and be completely trampled and left with the 777, a few 737NG orders to Delta and AA, and a sexy looking Sonic Cruiser which will only ever exist as a screensaver.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
Guest

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Wed Aug 08, 2001 1:43 am

I don't think the new larger 747s will ever replace the 744. I think Boeing hasn't been to focused on selling the larger 747s at this time because they don't feel it is the right time. When it comes, we may see Boeing really put this plan into action, and launch the new planes.

Cedarjet,

I think the 747 future is uncertain. JAL is the only airline I can think of that aren't likely to buy the A380. United are very likely to, they love the Airbus narrowbodies and certainly need the capacity offered by the A380. Northwest are the same, huge AI narrowbody fleet and in need of big planes across the Pacific.

Lucky for Airbus, most airlines make fleet purchasing decisions based on economics, and there is no way a 747 is going to be as efficient as a design 30 years younger. It is impossible. Boeing can either show the entrepreneurial spirit that kept them on top in the 60s and 70s and build a new big plane, or rest on former glories and be completely trampled and left with the 777, a few 737NG orders to Delta and AA, and a sexy looking Sonic Cruiser which will only ever exist as a screensaver.


United has expressed no interest (at least in public) in buying the A380. Northwest just ordered 2 more 744s, and they are likely to order more for 742 replacement, and again, they've never expressed interest in the A380.

The 747 design is old.........and there's really no point to that statement. This great designn has proven itself so much, that you can't blame Boeing for trying to continue it! Like it or not, I'm with Boeing and the 747 program managers who say the 747 will be in production for many years to come.

Now you say, as the 747 program dies, and then Boeing is left with the 777, who's orders have almost reached total A330+A340 orders combined, and in a much lesser perioid of time! You sound as if the 777 would be nothing great to be left with. ANd the 737NG? Well, don't even get me started on that aircraft's orders, it's well up there. The 737NG is selling like hot cakes. Again, you act as if these two projects are nothing great, and the truth is, they've been beating up Airbus sales ever since they were launched buddy.

I agree, the Sonic Cruiser probably won't be nothing but a picture, but with newer 747s, even with how much you seem to dislike them, it may be different...
 
RIX
Posts: 1589
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Wed Aug 08, 2001 4:54 am

...and what if Sonic Cruiser is more than a picture...  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
 
catpac
Posts: 226
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 6:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Wed Aug 08, 2001 8:26 am

Boeing 747-400,

I personally love the B747 and all other types they offer as well.
But being realistic, I don't think that the 747 will remain in production for much longer. My evidence is that it is an old plane, its design was first build in the mid 1960s. Another proof of evidence that 744 is old, is that its cheaper than a B777 and for instance Cathay Pacific has already announced that they will be replacing them in the next five years, unless they will spend millions upgrading them to something more economical. Its just a fact, 747 is striggling to compete with its grandchildren and Airbus cousins. By the end of 2010, I believe not many competitive airlines airlines will be operating the 744, as the competition will outrun them in efficiency by employing more advanced eqiuipment such as B777/777LR, A330/340-500/600, A380, etc.

There is no need to be unrealistic and say nothing will replace the 744, it will be built for another 30 years,....I belive that 744 efficiency is what will put it out of service....and it is coming soon as well.

Its just a fact that, the 744 is still the queen of the skies, however it is well past its peak, and it probably isn't far away from retirement.

RIX,

Well I am sure that many Boeing fans will feel
short-changed, after so much publicity and hype about the Sonic cruiser, and then in the end they don't actually make it. Like someone else had said, perhaps it was a strategy for boeing to deviate the attention from the A380......if that was the case, we can all expect another announcement of something like Trans-sonic cruiser, that will cruise at M1.05 and fly 13000nm, soon after Airbus builds the A380.
 
United Airline
Topic Author
Posts: 8773
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Wed Aug 08, 2001 10:13 am

Through continuous improvement, as Boeing has said, the B 747-400 is TOTALLY different from the B 747-100 in 1969. It is A LOT more advanced, and it is still VERY advanced.

Besides, Boeing has launched the B 747-400ER, a newer and longer ranged B 747-400 with more advanced technology. The B 747X is as advanced as any new aircraft. ANY!

United is very unlikely to order the A 380. They are committed to an all Boeing Fleet for Widebodies, as well as aircraft larger than the B 757. They indicated no interest on the A 380. If they are interested in Airbus Widebodies, they would have ordered the A 330/340 instead of the B 767/777.

Boeing747-400: I think when the time comes, Boeing will start selling the B 747X, the NLA as well as the BWB in a MUCH more serious way.

Just my 2 cents

Regards.
 
RIX
Posts: 1589
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Fri Aug 10, 2001 3:59 am

Well, none of those 777/340 versions is a direct competitor for 747 since they are of different capacity - the same, of course, about 380. 747 is not so popular not because of its efficiency or whatever else. It is just because the market clearly moves to 250-350 seaters. Nothing is wrong with 747 because it is "old": then why 737NG is so successful? Because of MARKET for its class. Finally, if there is no real market for 747 in future, then 380 is already dead: it will never be sold in amount even average between what Airbus and Boeing predicted if there is no need in 400+ seater. While A380, of course, was not designed to be a tiny niche aircraft... and if it fails, please, don't blame Boeing with its "strategy to deviate the attention from the A380", I'm so tired of this rubbish... or does anybody really believe an airline that wanted to buy A380 doesn't do so because Boeing said something about M0.999999 aircraft with range enough for a round trip to the Moon? Then, I beg your pardon, but poor A380!
 
catpac
Posts: 226
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2001 6:24 pm

RE: The B 747X. A Possible Replacement For The B 744?

Fri Aug 10, 2001 7:23 am

RIX,

The B777-300, A340-600 and the A380 is direct competition for the B747. They are all carrying almost as many passenegers and can travel the distance. Just because these three aircraft don't carry exactly the same amount of passenegers as the B747, doesnt mean that they are not in compettiton with the B747.

Also, pretty much every financial report and forecast I have seen contradicts your statement about market downgrading to 250-300 seat aircraft, etc. This is not true. I can guarantee you, that almost any big airline will forcast firm long term growth. There are many carriers aout there that are experiencing very high load factors on some of their 747 routes and its growing, hence there is definitelly a market for a bigger aircarft.

After all, what do we know??? Airbus has spent millions researching and forecasting what the air travelling public will do, etc. Obviously if they have decided to build the A380, then the trend was definitelly in favour of such an aircraft.

About the SC, you just seemed so relaxed, "and so what, if they don't build it?", well if Boeing does that a few more times and nothing actually happens, I am sure that their credibility will drop, hence its importnat that they don't promise too much if they don;t have any real intentions to actually build the promise.

Just my opinion.
Mike

Who is online