sagechan
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[Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:15 pm

Just a fun thought I had. AA seems to have a reasonably successful and liked product with the A321T flying limited routes in its 10F/20C/72Y config. With the recent sub of a A321neo on KEF-LAX making a 4300*mile flight with a rumored 110-120 pax in a standard neo, what could an LR do if configured in the T?

What performance in terms of distance could it fly?
What markets might a premium heavy narrowbody TATL workhorse be appropriate for?

While i give a miniscule chance of this happening what are a.net's thoughts?
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Arion640
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:35 pm

I can't see there being a huge ammount of markets AA would fly with that config outside its borders. Its very premium heavy.

Plenty of markets to access but not in that configuration. You could say Heathrow but they'd want to use larger aircraft.
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:14 am

It would make a heckuva sports charter aircraft ...
 
Sancho99504
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:18 am

There may be a way that AA could make some smaller markets work with that kind of configuration aimed at the right clientele. They would have to change the Y+/Y configuration up a bit, maybe by eliminating Y+ and going 32-33" in economy. Think CLE/PIT/IND/BDL to LHR. The way the market is, it could give AA/BA better margins across the Atlantic, especially if BA were to do the same from LHR to Africa, middle East and even parts of Europe.
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:37 am

Something like SAS's SVG-IAH fight that tap into the oil&gas market?
 
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william
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:52 am

AA wouldn’t waste a slot at Heathrow on TATL with a premium service A321 from JFK. But could an A321 make the UK from ORD? Back in the 80s AA used the 767 to start service from ORD to smaller European cities. If the A321 has the range.
 
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American 767
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:27 am

william wrote:
AA wouldn’t waste a slot at Heathrow on TATL with a premium service A321 from JFK. But could an A321 make the UK from ORD? Back in the 80s AA used the 767 to start service from ORD to smaller European cities. If the A321 has the range.


AA has flown the 757 MAN-ORD nonstop so I am persuaded the A321NEOLR could do it. The A321NEOLR is, in my opinion, the right 757 replacement. DUB-ORD could see the A321NEOLR. I'm not sure AA currently flies DUB-ORD but if they decide to do so, the A321NEOLR would be appropriate for the route as long as it is ETOPS rated.
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gatibosgru
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:41 am

What about trying some South American markets? RDU-GRU is pushing it, but in a light layout it could work? Or PHL-CNF?
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sagechan
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:58 am

American 767 wrote:
william wrote:
AA wouldn’t waste a slot at Heathrow on TATL with a premium service A321 from JFK. But could an A321 make the UK from ORD? Back in the 80s AA used the 767 to start service from ORD to smaller European cities. If the A321 has the range.


AA has flown the 757 MAN-ORD nonstop so I am persuaded the A321NEOLR could do it. The A321NEOLR is, in my opinion, the right 757 replacement. DUB-ORD could see the A321NEOLR. I'm not sure AA currently flies DUB-ORD but if they decide to do so, the A321NEOLR would be appropriate for the route as long as it is ETOPS rated.


While i actually agree with the comments above that my speculated config just doesn't have enough places that justify the premium heavy cabin. In a more traditional 2 class international config i think the LR would be a great 757 replacement for PHL/JFK-smaller near Europe and Mia-nearer SA. If it gets equal in range to the 752 with lower fuel burn it should increase the economic case for some destinations for either extended seasonal/year round/new destinations.
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Wingtips56
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:19 am

Cargo is a major contributor to AA's bottom line. I've heard that the -LR extra fuel tanks cut into the cargo hold space. AA carries a lot of belly freight along with heavy bag loads and often "cubes-out" in Latin America and the Caribbean, so the -LR doesn't strike me as the right fit for AA. The enhanced MTOW doesn't matter if they run out of space before that. AA has seasonal and some year 'round embargoes on excess bags and boxes, in order to maximize cargo capacity. ATW used to print monthly stats for cargo and passenger carriers, and AA was always at the top of the list for airlines that didn't have dedicated freighters, and topped most that did, coming in right behind the FedEx/UPS/DHL crowd.

The -CEO and certainly the -NEO can probably reach all of the LatAm destinations they might want to send it to. Deep South markets do sell out will in premium cabins, as well as the back, so widebodies would still be the best choice for the market, especially as the southern economies recover. LatAm normally mints money for AA, so sharply reducing capacity wouldn't make sense.

As to TATL, premium-heavy widebodies -plus- a high volume coach load would still be in order, versus the greatly reduced capacity of a 321T type configuration. For TATL, I see the 321neo-LR working only for the high-density/no cargo leisure carriers in more P2P markets or the Norwegian/WOW-style hubs.
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sagechan
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:39 am

Wingtips56 wrote:
Cargo is a major contributor to AA's bottom line. I've heard that the -LR extra fuel tanks cut into the cargo hold space. AA carries a lot of belly freight along with heavy bag loads and often "cubes-out" in Latin America and the Caribbean, so the -LR doesn't strike me as the right fit for AA. The enhanced MTOW doesn't matter if they run out of space before that. AA has seasonal and some year 'round embargoes on excess bags and boxes, in order to maximize cargo capacity. ATW used to print monthly stats for cargo and passenger carriers, and AA was always at the top of the list for airlines that didn't have dedicated freighters, and topped most that did, coming in right behind the FedEx/UPS/DHL crowd.

The -CEO and certainly the -NEO can probably reach all of the LatAm destinations they might want to send it to. Deep South markets do sell out will in premium cabins, as well as the back, so widebodies would still be the best choice for the market, especially as the southern economies recover. LatAm normally mints money for AA, so sharply reducing capacity wouldn't make sense.

As to TATL, premium-heavy widebodies -plus- a high volume coach load would still be in order, versus the greatly reduced capacity of a 321T type configuration. For TATL, I see the 321neo-LR working only for the high-density/no cargo leisure carriers in more P2P markets or the Norwegian/WOW-style hubs.


According to AA's 2017 Financial statement cargo was $800m of $42B in revenue or slightly below 2%. Its an important ancillary stream, but the vast majority of that is on widebody or small package freight. 757s are going to be minor in freight.
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alancostello
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:54 am

American 767 wrote:
william wrote:
AA wouldn’t waste a slot at Heathrow on TATL with a premium service A321 from JFK. But could an A321 make the UK from ORD? Back in the 80s AA used the 767 to start service from ORD to smaller European cities. If the A321 has the range.


AA has flown the 757 MAN-ORD nonstop so I am persuaded the A321NEOLR could do it. The A321NEOLR is, in my opinion, the right 757 replacement. DUB-ORD could see the A321NEOLR. I'm not sure AA currently flies DUB-ORD but if they decide to do so, the A321NEOLR would be appropriate for the route as long as it is ETOPS rated.


AA currently fly a 787 DUB-ORD so an A321LR would be a significant downgrade in capacity unless they decide to go double daily and up the frequency.
 
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reidar76
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:08 am

AA serve very few destinations in the EU. Almost all traffic in channeled thru LHR, with onwards connection on a BA flight. I think there is great potential for nonstop, premium heavy traffic. Remember that LHR is overloaded and expensive, and onwards connections on BA places AAs first and business class passengers in a six abreast narrowbody at @ 29 pitch on BA. Avoiding LHR saves time, and time is money. First class passengers don't like to sit and wait for hours at LHR, and then be put in cattle class.

In such a extremely low density configuration (102 seats), AA can reach all EU destinations from their hubs in New York, Philadelphia, Washington DC and Chicago, most western EU destinations from Charlotte and Miami, and only the outermost parts of the EU from Dallas.

AA could start with nonstop flights to the largest EU capitals, and the most wealthiest, largest secondary cities.

Here is a short list of potential A321LR destinations from AA hubs:
Berlin
Brussels
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Oslo
Vienna
Geneva
Luxembourg
Hamburg
Stuttgart
Düsseldorf
Nice
Lyon
(+ a lot more)

Some important EU destinations are only served from one of AAs hubs. The A321LR could enable more direct connections.

The problem is of course that their partner, BA, will be furious. Direct flights means significantly less premium traffic over LHR.

When it comes to cargo, I wouldn't worry. There is a lot of belly cargo space available, and cargo doesn't mind connecting at a hub.
Last edited by reidar76 on Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:16 am

reidar76 wrote:
AA serve very few destinations in the EU. Almost all traffic in channeled thru LHR, with onwards connection on a BA flight. I think there is great potential for nonstop, premium heavy traffic. Remember that LHR is overloaded and expensive, and onwards connections on BA places AAs first and business class passengers in a six abreast narrowbody at @ 29 pitch on BA. Avoiding LHR saves time, and time is money. First class passengers don't like to sit and wait for hours at LHR, and then be put in cattle class.

In such a extremely low density configuration (102 seats), AA can reach all EU destinations from their hubs in New York, Philadelphia, Washington DC and Chicago, most western EU destinations from Charlotte and Miami, and only the outermost parts of the EU from Dallas.

AA could start with nonstop flights to the largest EU capitals, and the most wealthiest, largest secondary cities.

Here is a short list of potential A321LR destinations from AA hubs:
Berlin
Brussels
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Oslo
Vienna
Geneva
Luxembourg
Hamburg
Stuttgart
Düsseldorf
Nice
Lyon
(+ a lot more)

Some important EU destinations are only served from one of AAs hubs. The A321LR could enable more direct connections.

The problem is of course that their partner, BA, will be furious. Direct flights means significantly less premium traffic over LHR.


AA never cared about all this. They never cared. If it would make AA more money they'd do it, but they're lazy as hell. Going back to the inception of OW AA never cared about this.
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:26 am

sagechan wrote:
American 767 wrote:
william wrote:
AA wouldn’t waste a slot at Heathrow on TATL with a premium service A321 from JFK. But could an A321 make the UK from ORD? Back in the 80s AA used the 767 to start service from ORD to smaller European cities. If the A321 has the range.


AA has flown the 757 MAN-ORD nonstop so I am persuaded the A321NEOLR could do it. The A321NEOLR is, in my opinion, the right 757 replacement. DUB-ORD could see the A321NEOLR. I'm not sure AA currently flies DUB-ORD but if they decide to do so, the A321NEOLR would be appropriate for the route as long as it is ETOPS rated.


[...] If it gets equal in range to the 752 with lower fuel burn [...]


You mean as in "IS equal in range, actually slightly superior, not least due to the fact it burns 25%-ish less fuel?"

Wingtips56 wrote:
Cargo is a major contributor to AA's bottom line.


Wow, the obsession with belly freight on this forum is killing me. While an important add-on for many routes, especially widebody flights, it is not the make or break for a business case. At least not in my professional experience in exactly that field.
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:47 am

gatibosgru wrote:
What about trying some South American markets? RDU-GRU is pushing it, but in a light layout it could work? Or PHL-CNF?

For the three people that would be onboard?
There's essentially zilch demand from those gateways to those markets.

Why would AA waste their time/resources doing that, when they're already the dominant US carrier to Brazil from two of the three highest demand markets: MIA and NYC.
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:13 pm

alancostello wrote:
American 767 wrote:
william wrote:
AA wouldn’t waste a slot at Heathrow on TATL with a premium service A321 from JFK. But could an A321 make the UK from ORD? Back in the 80s AA used the 767 to start service from ORD to smaller European cities. If the A321 has the range.


AA has flown the 757 MAN-ORD nonstop so I am persuaded the A321NEOLR could do it. The A321NEOLR is, in my opinion, the right 757 replacement. DUB-ORD could see the A321NEOLR. I'm not sure AA currently flies DUB-ORD but if they decide to do so, the A321NEOLR would be appropriate for the route as long as it is ETOPS rated.


AA currently fly a 787 DUB-ORD so an A321LR would be a significant downgrade in capacity unless they decide to go double daily and up the frequency.


Ditto ORD-MAN, also on a B788, albeit a short season. The A321 could make it a longer season, possibly year round.
 
r2rho
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:32 pm

Now that you mention it, this is very probably the "almost 5000nm in low density" configuration that the A320NEO chief engineer was talking about the other day...
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:40 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
Cargo is a major contributor to AA's bottom line.



People mention cargo a lot when talking about airline routes and loads, profitability etc. It is insignificant! For 2017 Cargo was less than 2% of AA revenue. Bag fees bring in 5x what Cargo does. No decisions about anything at a major passanger airline are made based on Cargo.
 
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:43 pm

I should have finished reading before posting. I see others had already made my point.
 
WorldFlier
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:51 pm

Arion640 wrote:
I can't see there being a huge ammount of markets AA would fly with that config outside its borders. Its very premium heavy.

Plenty of markets to access but not in that configuration. You could say Heathrow but they'd want to use larger aircraft.


One word.

Yield.

Why chase rock-bottom fares to connect people to Heathrow on big jets when you can fill First with full-fares, and as much of the back with Y, B, M, H (I know that's United, but I don't know AA's fare classes).

Heathrow may be a bad example, but plenty of business destinations like PHL/JFK to secondary European cities filled with consultants.

There's a reason my flights to Bentonville are completely full on a ERJ-170/175 instead of 3/4 empty on a 737-700 and they cost $800 R/T...
 
N983AN
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:55 pm

sagechan wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
Cargo is a major contributor to AA's bottom line. I've heard that the -LR extra fuel tanks cut into the cargo hold space. AA carries a lot of belly freight along with heavy bag loads and often "cubes-out" in Latin America and the Caribbean, so the -LR doesn't strike me as the right fit for AA. The enhanced MTOW doesn't matter if they run out of space before that. AA has seasonal and some year 'round embargoes on excess bags and boxes, in order to maximize cargo capacity. ATW used to print monthly stats for cargo and passenger carriers, and AA was always at the top of the list for airlines that didn't have dedicated freighters, and topped most that did, coming in right behind the FedEx/UPS/DHL crowd.

The -CEO and certainly the -NEO can probably reach all of the LatAm destinations they might want to send it to. Deep South markets do sell out will in premium cabins, as well as the back, so widebodies would still be the best choice for the market, especially as the southern economies recover. LatAm normally mints money for AA, so sharply reducing capacity wouldn't make sense.

As to TATL, premium-heavy widebodies -plus- a high volume coach load would still be in order, versus the greatly reduced capacity of a 321T type configuration. For TATL, I see the 321neo-LR working only for the high-density/no cargo leisure carriers in more P2P markets or the Norwegian/WOW-style hubs.


According to AA's 2017 Financial statement cargo was $800m of $42B in revenue or slightly below 2%. Its an important ancillary stream, but the vast majority of that is on widebody or small package freight. 757s are going to be minor in freight.


Indeed. Also, bulkloaded priority parcel type shipments tend to be higher margin than unit loaded (containerized) freight.
Last edited by N983AN on Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FermiParadox
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:08 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I can't see there being a huge ammount of markets AA would fly with that config outside its borders. Its very premium heavy.

Plenty of markets to access but not in that configuration. You could say Heathrow but they'd want to use larger aircraft.


One word.

Yield.

Why chase rock-bottom fares to connect people to Heathrow on big jets when you can fill First with full-fares, and as much of the back with Y, B, M, H (I know that's United, but I don't know AA's fare classes).

Heathrow may be a bad example, but plenty of business destinations like PHL/JFK to secondary European cities filled with consultants.

There's a reason my flights to Bentonville are completely full on a ERJ-170/175 instead of 3/4 empty on a 737-700 and they cost $800 R/T...


You give not one example where you can "fill First with full-fares and as much of the back with [the top 4 fare classes]"

There's literally not one city pair that has consistent daily 12 full F fares that doesn't also have 250 Y fares, thus making more sense on a 757, 767, A330, 777, etc.

You're going to come back with something about premium yields while ignoring the fact that your costs on a larger aircraft on a per pax basis are significantly lower.

In short, there's literally no business case justification for it. And I have over a decade of airline experience in commercial roles, so I'm not just making this up.
 
lowfareair
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:10 pm

I don't see the 321LR being used in anything near a transcon config, but I could absolutely see it in a config of 170-175 seats similar to B6's Mint config (with less legroom in Y, obviously) or their current intl 752 layout and use it to test out new mid-haul markets like PHL-TXL, PHX-LIM, or MIA-ASU. It could also be used to make existing seasonal routes like PHL-FRA year-round to help maintain/gain corporate contracts, or even just to better adjust to seasonality in a market.

The 102-seat 32T has very limited use in scheduled service outside of markets it is already on. B6 can offer Mint on other markets because the Mint-configured aircraft are not as low-density as AA's
 
MIflyer12
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:11 pm

reidar76 wrote:
AA could start with nonstop flights to the largest EU capitals, and the most wealthiest, largest secondary cities.

Here is a short list of potential A321LR destinations from AA hubs:
Berlin
Brussels
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Oslo
Vienna
Geneva
Luxembourg
Hamburg
Stuttgart
Düsseldorf
Nice
Lyon
(+ a lot more)

Some important EU destinations are only served from one of AAs hubs. The A321LR could enable more direct connections.


A lot more? Not even most of those, IMHO. The OP is talking premium-heavy LR in the 321T config. Berlin premium-heavy? Brussels? Delta, in the JV with AF, doesn't even fly to LYS from JFK. AA on ORD or PHL-LYS? My sides ache from laughing. United doesn't even serve all of those airports daily from EWR, and AA is #4 in NYC with none of the EWR hub competitiveness.

Maybe a 321LR with 16 lie flats and ~170 seats total, seasonally to a few of those airports, could be viable for AA.
 
itchief
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:25 pm

N983AN wrote:
sagechan wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
Cargo is a major contributor to AA's bottom line. I've heard that the -LR extra fuel tanks cut into the cargo hold space. AA carries a lot of belly freight along with heavy bag loads and often "cubes-out" in Latin America and the Caribbean, so the -LR doesn't strike me as the right fit for AA. The enhanced MTOW doesn't matter if they run out of space before that. AA has seasonal and some year 'round embargoes on excess bags and boxes, in order to maximize cargo capacity. ATW used to print monthly stats for cargo and passenger carriers, and AA was always at the top of the list for airlines that didn't have dedicated freighters, and topped most that did, coming in right behind the FedEx/UPS/DHL crowd.

The -CEO and certainly the -NEO can probably reach all of the LatAm destinations they might want to send it to. Deep South markets do sell out will in premium cabins, as well as the back, so widebodies would still be the best choice for the market, especially as the southern economies recover. LatAm normally mints money for AA, so sharply reducing capacity wouldn't make sense.

As to TATL, premium-heavy widebodies -plus- a high volume coach load would still be in order, versus the greatly reduced capacity of a 321T type configuration. For TATL, I see the 321neo-LR working only for the high-density/no cargo leisure carriers in more P2P markets or the Norwegian/WOW-style hubs.


According to AA's 2017 Financial statement cargo was $800m of $42B in revenue or slightly below 2%. Its an important ancillary stream, but the vast majority of that is on widebody or small package freight. 757s are going to be minor in freight.


Indeed. Also, bulkloaded priority parcel type shipments tend to be higher margin than unit loaded (containerized) freight.


How much of the $800m is profit? Just throwing the number out without knowing the profit margin does not tell anyone the facts.
 
WorldFlier
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Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:28 pm

FermiParadox wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I can't see there being a huge ammount of markets AA would fly with that config outside its borders. Its very premium heavy.

Plenty of markets to access but not in that configuration. You could say Heathrow but they'd want to use larger aircraft.


One word.

Yield.

Why chase rock-bottom fares to connect people to Heathrow on big jets when you can fill First with full-fares, and as much of the back with Y, B, M, H (I know that's United, but I don't know AA's fare classes).

Heathrow may be a bad example, but plenty of business destinations like PHL/JFK to secondary European cities filled with consultants.

There's a reason my flights to Bentonville are completely full on a ERJ-170/175 instead of 3/4 empty on a 737-700 and they cost $800 R/T...


You give not one example where you can "fill First with full-fares and as much of the back with [the top 4 fare classes]"

There's literally not one city pair that has consistent daily 12 full F fares that doesn't also have 250 Y fares, thus making more sense on a 757, 767, A330, 777, etc.

You're going to come back with something about premium yields while ignoring the fact that your costs on a larger aircraft on a per pax basis are significantly lower.

In short, there's literally no business case justification for it. And I have over a decade of airline experience in commercial roles, so I'm not just making this up.


Are the last 125-150 Y- fares worth it on a 767 vs the A321LR? Do you fill the last 20-30 J seats on a 767 vs 12-20 on a A321LR?

Sadly, the 767, 330, and 777 are "too much" up-front for many, many, many, many cities that are not hubs across the pond while they may be "just right" in the back because of the ability to sell K fares.

I think that, in a network carrier such as American and United, 12 J seats on a daily basis and 100 Y seats (maybe actually 8-12 seats of true Economy plus) will make this a great plane from secondary hubs (that are primary cities such as PHL, BOS, etc) to secondary cities with Business demand will make perfect sense.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 261
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:35 pm

itchief wrote:
N983AN wrote:
sagechan wrote:

According to AA's 2017 Financial statement cargo was $800m of $42B in revenue or slightly below 2%. Its an important ancillary stream, but the vast majority of that is on widebody or small package freight. 757s are going to be minor in freight.


Indeed. Also, bulkloaded priority parcel type shipments tend to be higher margin than unit loaded (containerized) freight.


How much of the $800m is profit? Just throwing the number out without knowing the profit margin does not tell anyone the facts.



Well common sense says not much. Cargo is heavy, weight burns fuel, fuel is the number one expense.
 
UpNAWAy
Posts: 261
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 12:42 pm

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:38 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
AA serve very few destinations in the EU. Almost all traffic in channeled thru LHR, with onwards connection on a BA flight. I think there is great potential for nonstop, premium heavy traffic. Remember that LHR is overloaded and expensive, and onwards connections on BA places AAs first and business class passengers in a six abreast narrowbody at @ 29 pitch on BA. Avoiding LHR saves time, and time is money. First class passengers don't like to sit and wait for hours at LHR, and then be put in cattle class.

In such a extremely low density configuration (102 seats), AA can reach all EU destinations from their hubs in New York, Philadelphia, Washington DC and Chicago, most western EU destinations from Charlotte and Miami, and only the outermost parts of the EU from Dallas.

AA could start with nonstop flights to the largest EU capitals, and the most wealthiest, largest secondary cities.

Here is a short list of potential A321LR destinations from AA hubs:
Berlin
Brussels
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Oslo
Vienna
Geneva
Luxembourg
Hamburg
Stuttgart
Düsseldorf
Nice
Lyon
(+ a lot more)

Some important EU destinations are only served from one of AAs hubs. The A321LR could enable more direct connections.

The problem is of course that their partner, BA, will be furious. Direct flights means significantly less premium traffic over LHR.


AA never cared about all this. They never cared. If it would make AA more money they'd do it, but they're lazy as hell. Going back to the inception of OW AA never cared about this.



That is not accurate. Prague and Budapest would say otherwise and those routes grew directly from BA and LHR. Once AA sees enough OD connecting on BA from 2 points they can go in and add their own direct flights.
 
itchief
Posts: 182
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:15 pm

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:44 pm

UpNAWAy wrote:
itchief wrote:
N983AN wrote:

Indeed. Also, bulkloaded priority parcel type shipments tend to be higher margin than unit loaded (containerized) freight.


How much of the $800m is profit? Just throwing the number out without knowing the profit margin does not tell anyone the facts.



Well common sense says not much. Cargo is heavy, weight burns fuel, fuel is the number one expense.


So why do airlines bother with cargo if it does not make much profit? Why not fly with empty cargo holds to save money?

One more time, what is the profit margin?
 
airbazar
Posts: 8835
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:45 pm

sagechan wrote:
What markets might a premium heavy narrowbody TATL workhorse be appropriate for?

JFK-West Africa (LOS?), comes to mind.
 
tcfc424
Posts: 508
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:01 pm

I am not sure of the performance specs of the A321LR, but I would wonder about perhaps JFK-LCY? I realize BA serves this with a special 318 in all business class, but this could be a niche market that the A321LR would work well on in a T config. I'm just not sure if it COULD operate into and out of LCY.
 
sagechan
Topic Author
Posts: 200
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:14 pm

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:37 pm

itchief wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
itchief wrote:

How much of the $800m is profit? Just throwing the number out without knowing the profit margin does not tell anyone the facts.



Well common sense says not much. Cargo is heavy, weight burns fuel, fuel is the number one expense.


So why do airlines bother with cargo if it does not make much profit? Why not fly with empty cargo holds to save money?

One more time, what is the profit margin?


I do not believe AA breaks out ancillary margins anywhere, but let's be generous and say 30%, that's $240M, a significant revenue stream, but still in the low single digit % of total profit, and most of that is not going to come from long-haul narrowbody ops.


Also, while my OP is focused on the novelty idea of the 102 seat config, please fill free to add thoughts on a more standard 16F/~150ishY (or maybe a tiny W cabin in there too) config. Enjoying the conversation so far!
717, 733, 734, 738, 744, 752, 763, 772, 77W, 789, A319, A320, A321, A332, A333, MD88, CRJ, CR7, CR9, DH1, DH2, DH3, S340, ER4, E170, E175, E190/CO, NW, US, AC, NH, AA, UA, DL, WN, WS, SK, VY, LA, QF, AR, AV.
 
N983AN
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:15 am

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:46 pm

itchief wrote:
UpNAWAy wrote:
itchief wrote:

How much of the $800m is profit? Just throwing the number out without knowing the profit margin does not tell anyone the facts.



Well common sense says not much. Cargo is heavy, weight burns fuel, fuel is the number one expense.


So why do airlines bother with cargo if it does not make much profit? Why not fly with empty cargo holds to save money?

One more time, what is the profit margin?


How the heck do you expect me to know, and even if I did why would I post it here? I am speaking generally, not specific to AA or the AA Cargo operation. If containerized cargo was so lucrative and with such great demand why have both AA and UA delegated their premium trancons to all narrow bodies?

Passenger airlines take cargo revenue if its there as it’s easy money to be made. Believe what you want but I can tell you from my experience working in the industry nowadays it’s few and far between major network decisions are made on the basis of catering to cargo (but certainly are some instances). There’s a reason none of the US3 operate dedicated freighters unlike other global carriers.
 
acentauri
Posts: 177
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:21 am

WorldFlier wrote:
FermiParadox wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
....................................
I think that, in a network carrier such as American and United, 12 J seats on a daily basis and 100 Y seats (maybe actually 8-12 seats of true Economy plus) will make this a great plane from secondary hubs (that are primary cities such as PHL, BOS, etc) to secondary cities with Business demand will make perfect sense.

Huh ? PHL is not a "secondary" AA Trans-Atlantic Hub. It's the Primary AA Trans-Atlantic Hub, with significant network connections to support smaller Euro seasonal destinations, such as BUD and PRG, which were just added for 2018 as well as a return to ZRH.
 
WorldFlier
Posts: 211
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2015 2:10 pm

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:19 pm

acentauri wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
FermiParadox wrote:

Huh ? PHL is not a "secondary" AA Trans-Atlantic Hub. It's the Primary AA Trans-Atlantic Hub, with significant network connections to support smaller Euro seasonal destinations, such as BUD and PRG, which were just added for 2018 as well as a return to ZRH.


It is most definitely a "Secondary" US City. It may be a Primary Hub, but the A321 allows for routes to/from Secondary cities, regardless of them being a Primary Hub.

Boston, is a Primary Jet Blue hub, but it is a Secondary City. It is another perfect city for A321LR.

Lisbon is a Primary Hub for TAP, but it is definitely a European "Secondary" City. Milan as well.

This wasn't a dig, but there is a difference between a Primary City (New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, London, Moscow, Shanghai, Hong Kong etc) and a Secondary City (Philadelphia, Boston, Lisbon, Barcelona, St. Petersburg, Shenzhen, etc.)
 
User avatar
Pellegrine
Posts: 2139
Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

Re: [Speculation] What could AA do with a A321neoLR in the A321T 102 seat config?

Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:02 am

UpNAWAy wrote:


That is not accurate. Prague and Budapest would say otherwise and those routes grew directly from BA and LHR. Once AA sees enough OD connecting on BA from 2 points they can go in and add their own direct flights.


Just like I said. Lazy as hell. Don't want to open new routes without some surefire confirmation.

Edit: This AA Emerald, ex-UA 1K would rather fly BA to Europe any day, connect at LHR, and bank with AA. And I would never fly AA to Asia. Bleh.....
oh boy, here we go!!!

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