kieso
Posts: 33
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2004 1:13 pm

Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 3:12 pm

I'm not sure if Song will show the other LCC that the big carriers can make a difference. But I do know that it's got Jetblue wondering if JFK can be over taken by a big carrier again.

It's great to watch it all come into play!

All these airline wars to be the biggest and best are why I love airlines!

Thanks, Airliners.net!
Me is Kieso_I love to fly and it shows! YA
 
mark777300
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 3:30 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 3:57 pm

Not to be too opinonated about this, since I am a devoted fan of jetBlue, but I don't believe that Song will outdo Jetblue in the long run. This is nothing different than Delta express, Metrojet, Continetal Lite, and whatever else there was before. It's difficult for a major to emulate the operations and success associated with LCC's like Southwest or evn jetBlue. The 757's I believe are still not the right aircraft to be used for LCC operations and i still feel that jetBlue and Southwest have the upper hand in customer satisfaction and on-time peformance. Plus, I still can't see how Song would be as successful while still physically being part of Delta. It's a formula that just hasn't been the most successful in the past. Besides, what will Song do to counter attack jetBlue when it begins operations with it's ERJ-190's to new smaller underserved destinations? This is not People Express all over again, jetBlue is something different, something radically new to the aviation world. We'll see what happens next, but Song has a tough battle ahead.
 
asuflyer05
Posts: 2053
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 8:53 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 6:23 pm

Song may be able to encroach on some of B6's JFK to Florida routes but their ability to do so in other markets, especially transcons is fairly limited. It'll be a cold day in hell before Delta rolls out Song aircraft on JFK-LAX, & -SFO routes. These are routes that operate with widebody frequencies and dedicated BusinessElite transcon cabins so there is definetly a premium market that they are capturing.

I agree with Mark777300. The 757s are probably too big and DLs costs are too high to effectively compete with B6 especially from JFK into secondary airports such as OAK, SNA, and LGB. I find it hard to believe Song could operate similar routes with a larger aircraft and at higher costs yet still turn a profit. I believe CO has suspended EWR-OAK twice now and they were operating it with 737s once a day and then once a day seasonally.

Just my $.02
 
Navion
Posts: 1052
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 1:52 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 9:06 pm

I have noticed in virtually all of the threads about JetBlue that almost no-one has mentioned the huge factor facing JetBlue in the future and that is their deferred payments on their aircraft. These deferred payments are very large and will significantly impact JB in the future. It's these same deferred payments which are giving and artificially low cost picture of their operations presently. JB does a good job at their present routes but when their costs come due, a more realistic picture of them will evolve which is a good airline but not and infallible one. Also, their route structure is but a fraction of the majors so their on time performance and customer satisfaction are naturally higher as they have a small fraction of the opportunities to upset passengers with route delays, weather delays, lost baggage etc.. I like JetBlue but I also see this love affair with them as unrealistic as they have not demonstrated running in a realistic cost environment and they really are a small carrier without all of the problems of the majors. One final thing, I forsee more labor problems/cost once the honeymoon is over (after maybe 10 years or so) when labor will want "more of the profit pie". Just my opinion.
 
richierich
Posts: 3282
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 10:46 pm

Navion - your point would be good except that there are no deferred payment costs on JetBlue's airplanes.
According to my source which I feel is pretty reliable, the aircraft costs are evenly spread over the life of the aircraft. The only deferred "costs" are maintenance. It has been widely said in here many times that JetBlue is going to suffer once they have to pay for maintenance as their planes age. I am not so sure - obviously this is a cost that will go up but I believe B6 has done thorough analysis of projected mx costs and still come out way ahead of the curve. This might sound like a stretch but I don't hear anyone complaining about Southwest's mx costs - and they have much older planes on average.

To me, Song is not going to work and I think it will be going or gone by the end of the year. Just my prediction - I have been challenged several times in here for this, but I stand by it. Song is a flawed business model, even if the product itself is not too bad and a general improvement over Delta.

I think JetBlue needs competition to stop them becoming complacent, and surely Song has stolen some passengers away. But for every passenger who flies Song (and pays $99 to go from Ny-Florida), they are probably doing more to hurt Delta than JetBlue!
None shall pass!!!!
 
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STT757
Posts: 13173
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 10:51 pm

Song is not in existence to "beat" Jetblue, DL launched Song to protect DL's market share in places like NY and Boston. DL has been flying NY-FLorida LONG before Jetblue (or even Airbus) were around, DL launching Song is just a bandange to stop the slide of business on these routes to B6.

Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Jetblue15
Posts: 269
Joined: Fri Mar 26, 2004 3:27 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:09 pm

Jetblue has absolutely nothing to worry about. For thoses of you that know JFK, all you see morning, noon and night is Jetblue. 90 flights and soon to be well over a 100 by this fall. You cannot find the customer service that Jetblue provides. During the blackout, snowstorms, and 9/11, we provided our customers as well as other airline customers with hotels, food, ect. During the blackout we were the only airline flying close to 100%. Song wasn't even anywhere near that. The model for Song is do it the way Jetblue does it and its funny when customers tell us this. Good luck Song, your gonna need it.



racecar spelled backwards spells racecar
 
MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:13 pm

"You cannot find the customer service that Jetblue provides"

Yes you can, but the only other airline that offers that is based in Denver. jetBlue is not alone in the good customer service category I can assure you. Probably better than Delta/Song, but no better than Frontier.  Smile


Steve/MSY
 
AirlineFanatic
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 2:21 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:17 pm

A quote from David Pflieger, Song VP Ops during the initial startup... "It's not a question if we can compete with JetBlue; the question is whether JetBlue can compete with us"

Fast forward a year later and Song has clearly been shown that JetBlue can and has competed and has the winning formula evidenced by their withdrawl and reduced frequency on B6 routes. Good luck when Blue starts LGA service this Fall!

Re: expansion at JFK by DL to DEN, SJU, SDQ, SAN (all B6 markets); Has anyone else noted that MAINLINE DELTA was given these routes and not Song, makes you go hmmmmm to the Song formula

Re: Navion's comments on the "JetBlue Holiday" and lease payments. Because this comes up EVERYTIME there is a JetBlue thread... I like Rich, have also confirmed with sources VERY close to the situation who has confirmed that lease payments are standard and DO NOT have large balloon payments at anytime throughtout their term. Maintenance will increase and has been accounted for as such.

Many great executives work for Blue (ex-People Express, Virgin, Southwest, Continental, etc). They make informed decisions and respond quickly to market changes combined with a loyal following that has made them the largest airline at JFK (in terms of pax boarded) and with a continued enhancement of their product (XM radio, PPV TV)... I see a great future for their business.
 
starrion
Posts: 969
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:19 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:19 pm

My family and several members of my department fly Song all the time. It is a real improvement over mainline service, and they tell me that the flights they are on from FLL, MCO and Fort Myers have all been packed.

I don't know if they'll "beat" Jetblue, but everyone seems to like the service Song provides now. I hope Delta keeps it, even if they don't expand it.

Since Jetblue is officially an LCC, our corporate travel department won't authorize using them or reimburse for flights on them. So no one I know will be using them.
Knowledge Replaces Fear
 
richardw
Posts: 3131
Joined: Tue May 08, 2001 3:17 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:21 pm

I was at JFK last night for my JFK-LHR flight on AA. The presence of JetBlue is amazing, I did manage to spot a Song Aircraft and the former TWA terminal. Song may be able to survive at JFK, but beat JetBlue? now that is unlikely.
 
N6376M
Posts: 2310
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:54 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:22 pm

Starrion,

Why wouldn't your corporate travel department use LCC? What's the logic?
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:23 pm

These are routes that operate with widebody frequencies and dedicated BusinessElite transcon cabins so there is definetly a premium market that they are capturing

...is that why they're primarily 757s now?  Big grin
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:29 pm

Continuing on from where STT757 left off, the point of Song was to act as a deterrent to Jetblue, to stop Jetblue coming into DL strongholds. Song doesn't need to beat Jetblue, and really doesn't need to be profitable, it just needs to have low enough prices to make it not worth Jetblue spending the effort and money to try and crack a new market. So far this policy has worked well with DL chasing Jetblue out of Atlanta, and it looks like it is working in other areas also.

J
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5258
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:29 pm

JB's CASM (cost per available seat mile) fell 2.9% in 1st Quarter 2004.

JB's RASM (revenue per available seat mile) fell 7.9% in 1st Quarter 2004.

So, JetBlue's unit revenues are falling more than twice as fast as its costs. This trend has been ongoing for quite a while. How will JetBlue continue to prosper if this trend continues??

Now before all the JetBlue fanatics attack me, I'm just asking an honest question. I'm NOT saying that JetBlue is going to die.

 
asuflyer05
Posts: 2053
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 8:53 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:43 pm

...is that why they're primarily 757s now?

I never said they were primarily widebodies but I also got them confused with UA who are putting the transcon business cabins in the 757s. I need to stop posting in the middle of the night. Then maybe my posts will end up saying what I want them to say.  Smile
 
AirlineFanatic
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 2:21 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 04, 2004 11:44 pm

FlyPNS,

JB RASM fell in 1Q as 1Q is usually a difficult quarter (as it was for all airlines) and JB had 53% capacity exposure to the transcon war and will correct the problem in the upcoming future.

The question regarding how will it work in the future... JB has noticed that this is not sustainable so you see arrival of new markets - Domincan Republic and departure on relying on large frequencies from stronghold cities - OAK and instead SJC and SMF.

Also, PNS regarding CASM decreasing AT ALL... there was no other airline which posted a decrease in CASM (non-labor)and this even shocked airline analyst - lowest cost leader decreasing. Also, let's keep in mind, JetBlue had industry leading Operating Profit Margins again this quarter  Smile

[Edited 2004-05-04 17:17:21]
 
FlyPNS1
Posts: 5258
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:12 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 12:02 am

Also, PNS regarding CASM decreasing AT ALL... there was no other airline which posted a decrease in CASM and this even shocked airline analyst.

What??? Virtually every Airline saw its CASM decrease in the 1st Qtr of 2004...most saw their CASM's decline far more than JBLU.

 
AirlineFanatic
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 2:21 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 12:14 am

Sorry PNS, I guess the thought behind that was NON-LABOR CASM... as JetBlue didnt axe labor to see the CASM decline.
 
starrion
Posts: 969
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 1:19 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 1:11 am

N6376m:

The logic has been that LCC's didn't offer service levels sufficient for frequent business travelers. Then there's the issue of the frequent overbooking and higher possibility of getting bumped on LCC's. When a traveller has to get somewhere, it's important and worth paying for the majors. I think there were also issues in obtaining discounts equal to what the majors were offering. Jetblue is a little different from the average LCC, but as far as our travel group is concerned we don't do Jetblue.
Knowledge Replaces Fear
 
bigphilnyc
Posts: 3874
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2002 10:43 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 2:42 am

"Has anyone else noted that MAINLINE DELTA was given these routes and not Song, makes you go hmmmmm to the Song formula"

Did you ever think Delta went mainline with these because Song's 757s were not the best aircraft for passenger loads on this route? Are they using 757s on it? Or maybe something more practical like a 737 until they see the they can fill larger planes.

I'm not sure, but Song may not even have enough aircraft to handle such expanision, so maybe DL need sto make these mainline routes until they get more.

-Phil
Phil Derner Jr.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2852
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 8:18 am

A quote from David Pflieger, Song VP Ops during the initial startup... "It's not a question if we can compete with JetBlue; the question is whether JetBlue can compete with us"

Ha! I wish this guy could have pressed the fast forward button to see what's going on tonight...

Now for the question: Will Song be able to beat JetBlue? IMO, no. Song is run by an airline that is financially unhealthy (yes, $383M 1Q loss is unhealthy), and therefore, a promotion will cost Song/DL much more than it would cost JetBlue.

Also, Song is a bit late in the game. Delta Express was a piece of crap, and therefore people switched over to the high-quality JetBlue brand. Now, people really don't see a reason for switching back to a Delta brand. Your average Joe (such as I) most likely would not see any logic is switching airlines once you've found one that meets your standards and even exceeds it.

Now let's look right now:

Song at JFK has been successful so far, but JetBlue hasn't lost much. JetBlue still operates high frequencies to Florida, and we all know that JetBlue won't operate a flight unless it has good loads. Now look at BOS. JetBlue is ADDING flights there that compete with Song, so that must be some sort of good sign...

Do I think Song is able to beat JetBlue? Definitely not. Do I think JetBlue is able to beat Song? No. Both airlines are HIGHLY competitive and would never give up without a war (not battle - war).

These are my thoughts,

JetBluefan1
 
goingboeing
Posts: 4727
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 1999 1:58 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 8:47 am

Song is not in existence to "beat" Jetblue, DL launched Song to protect DL's market share in places like NY and Boston

Which is why Song will fail. If I were an airline exec, I could care less if I am the leader in "market share" in any given market. I'd be #2 or #3, as long as I was showing a profit on the route.
 
WindowSeat
Posts: 1198
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2003 3:01 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 10:05 am




Song's existence is indeed to protect the Florida stronghold. DL felt the need to protect it's market share. This is the right strategy. If I was an airline exec, I would be very much concerned about keeping my market share. That at least means they are flying with you. Then you can start to bring up the prices, or stay competetive. But if you're losing market share, then everything goes downhill from then on. Song's strategy will work, just give it some time. The other thing is that Song is really not worried about the 190s as long as they don't encroach the Florida routes. All DL is worried about at this time is protecting it's most profitable state, Florida.

cheers



I'm all in favour of keeping dangerous weapons out of the hands of fools. Let's start with keyboards.
 
AirlineFanatic
Posts: 212
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 2:21 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 10:22 am

Window... the 190 will encroach FURTHER on Delta/Song Florida traffic as more point-to-point service from Blue will be viable.

Imagine 2nd tier Northeastern cities to FL or even better 2nd tier FL cities that require a connection in mega-ATL receiving nonstop 190 service to top O&D markets... it's going to be a competitive environment.

RE: Bigphilnyc... SDQ/SJU are 757 and possibly SAN, DEN is 738 and B6 increases to 2 A320 in response.
 
aa757first
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Aug 03, 2003 11:40 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 11:39 am

At the end of this month, I'm flying Song for $87 PHL - JFK - FLL. That's a pretty amazing price. Yes, I know they are losing money on that route. My question, will jetBlue ever, do you think, PHL - JFK service?

AAndrew
 
ROSWELL41
Posts: 754
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2001 3:50 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Wed May 05, 2004 3:55 pm

I have heard Song is doing quite well on Bradley International Airport (BDL) to FL. Jetblue is nowhere to be found at BDL yet.
 
7e72004
Posts: 3440
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 12:15 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 1:32 am

Song is going to go the way that Delta Express went...OUT. I think it is a waste of money to start an airline w/in an airline. Just take certain flights on the existing airline and designate those as discount or whatever you want to call it.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
soamsky
Posts: 293
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 3:41 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 1:35 am

Of course it will!!!!!!!!!!!
Soar the blue of the South American Sky
 
richierich
Posts: 3282
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 2:25 am

Never say never, but I highly doubt JetBlue will ever fly JFK-PHL. Too short.
Maybe PHL-Florida or something, but even that is unlikely with Southwest's immenent arrival at PHL.
As for BDL, I'd love to see B6 there. Maybe when the E190s arrive.
None shall pass!!!!
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2852
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 3:58 am

I think JFK-PHL will be served once B6's 190's come in. There would be a pretty big void to fill if US were to go down.

JetBluefan1
 
richierich
Posts: 3282
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2000 5:49 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 7:20 am

Keep in mind that New York and Philly are only 100 miles apart and air carriers are also competing against the car and against Amtrak on that route. The only draw on the route would be to bring passengers through the hub and on to other destinations.
None shall pass!!!!
 
cmckeithen
Posts: 594
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 9:31 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 8:35 am

Fly CO....thats what I say. You will never go wrong with them.
 
SHUPirate1
Posts: 3428
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2003 2:53 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 9:19 am

Richierich-People taking the train between New York and Philadelphia aren't taking Amtrak...they are taking a combination of New Jersey Transit and SEPTA (change in Trenton), which costs about half as much on that route...Amtrak can't make money because their train fares are absolutely ridiculous, and they move slower than a person would on foot on some routes...I mean, when I used to travel between New York and New Haven on Amtrak for school, it would cost me 33 dollars, compared to 11.50 on Metro-North...Amtrak's fares are, in a nutshell, insane...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
SuperDash
Posts: 352
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 1:52 pm

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Thu May 06, 2004 1:59 pm

Song will be gone by the end of the year. Grinstien hates Song. He may keep the routes, may keep the all coach 757s, but it will again be Delta Air Lines. Now, that would be a good move. Keep the routes that make money, change the ones that don't. Name of the game is profit. Being "cool" does not pay the bills. Market share does not put food on the table. Although, I think Song was a really dumb Leo Mullen Idea (don't hire him or any of the other geniuses that thought Song was a good idea), I do think JetBlue will see turbulence in the future (not saying they won't fly thru it) from a whole host of airlines and internal cost increases.
 
COEWR2587
Posts: 492
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2004 10:09 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 11, 2004 6:23 am

Oh come on. Jetblue all the way!!!! Better service, better IFE, more legroom and cheaper prices. Jetblue could kill Song IMO.
Newark Airport...My Home Away From Home
 
cactushp
Posts: 324
Joined: Mon May 10, 2004 3:36 am

RE: Will Song Airlines Be Able To Beat Jetblue?

Tue May 11, 2004 9:59 am

What about Amwest?? America West is a good airline with dirt cheap prices, what about them?
Sorry, I was on the landline

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