cragley
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Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 7:01 pm


With new airlines starting up, and existing airlines increasing frequencies and serving new destinations, do you think that certain routes are overserviced.
Personally I don;t think that new services into Sydney will be all that profitable. You have at least 15 daily departures to Europe, so there must be a lot of empty seats.

Some domestic routes are now operating 10 times per day for just 1 airline, while their competitors have the same amount of flights to the same destination. Is this sustainable?

What are routes that are over served?

And what are routes that are underserved.

I think BD and BA could add at least another 2 services each per day to the LHR EDI route.

 Smile/happy/getting dizzy
 
gkirk
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 7:07 pm

Routes that are overserved?
Definitly EDI-LHR  Laugh out loud
EDI-BHX as well perhaps
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RCS763AV
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 8:41 pm

Many euro routes, and in my opinion, NYC-South Florida.
 
codeshare
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 8:45 pm

The Warsaw-London route is pretty crowded.
LO and BA 3 times a day each - LHR
Air Polonia, SkyEurope - STN
EasyJet, WizzAir - LTN.

That's a total of 10 flights a day (was 13 a day at one point).
And already Air Polonia has gone bankrupt.



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HlywdCatft
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 9:02 pm

DAB to anywhere besides ATL or EWR
 
avek00
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 11:26 pm

Any route ex-IAD where DH is present...
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anxebla
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 11:54 pm

Overserved:JFK-LHR, for instance (in general all New York-London services)

On the Domestic issue, another route overserved is MAD-BCN
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N328KF
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Fri Dec 10, 2004 11:57 pm

Anxebla:

I find that hard to believe. Got any info on load factors, or is it random speculation?
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3w
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:22 am

from what i hear rom-mil with AZ is just tad over served
 
Mulder
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:44 am

Over the Tasman sea apparently. Some 14 airlines service the rather small market.
 
kkfla737
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 8:17 am

New York area airports to Fort Lauderdale (Going back to the 1960s this has been a route that is heavily traveled but too many airlines have started service and not fared well and had to pull back through the years)
Frankfurt to Chicago and Washington (because of the Star Alliance there are more flights on these routes than from JFK to FRA)

 
ARCJET
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 10:51 am

DALLAS-HOUSTON, do we need a flight every 15 minutes?
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PSAelectra
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 10:53 am

My vote is Beijing - Shanghai. Approx 35 PEK-SHA and 10 PEK-PVG R/T's per day. Source: Chinese Air Carriers Timetable for Fall/04.
 
cjuniel
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 10:58 am

Regarding the Frankfurt/IAD and ORD flights, there is more capacity on these routes than JFK/FRA because they are both United hubs. United doesnt operate a hub at JFK and not all of these passengers are originating in the Washington and Chicago areas.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:05 am

I disagree with New York to South Florida. This is a HUGE market and I know a couple of people who fly this route bi-weekly. There may be several million flights going back and forth on this route daily, but the flights fill up very well.

I think that the most overserved route in the U.S is NYC-WAS. Do we really need Shuttle service on two airlines from LGA, followed by Shuttle service from FlyI at JFK and EWR? Not to mention CO's service from EWR...am I missing any other airline that serves this route?

The most underserved is BOS-SEA. Two huge cities on the coasts of the U.S that hardly have non-stop service (AA is pulling this route, giving AS a monopoly if I'm not mistakened).

JetBluefan1
 
ramerinianair
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:11 am

NYC to LA area
NY to LAS
and how coulod anybody ever forget the ISP-BOS market(NOT BEING SERVED)
SR
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B-HOP
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:40 am

How could you forget taipei to Hong kong, more than 50 flights per day.
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ejmmsu
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 12:05 pm

Speaking of Dallas-Houston

DAL-HOU
29 daily flights on WN
DAL-IAH
6 daily flights on WN
9 daily flights on COex
DFW-IAH
11 daily flights on AA
1 daily flight on DL
10 daily flights on CO
DFW-HOU
3 daily flights on DL
9 daily flights on AA

For a grand total of 78 flights per day between dallas and houston
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luisde8cd
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 12:46 pm

How could you forget taipei to Hong kong, more than 50 flights per day.

This is because there are no flights between the rest of mainland China and Taiwan. If flights between Taiwan and the Mainland become a reality, I expect that number (50) to drop like a rock. People use Hong Kong to connect between China and Taiwan.
 
aussie747
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 1:04 pm

"Personally I don;t think that new services into Sydney will be all that profitable. You have at least 15 daily departures to Europe, so there must be a lot of empty seats."


The trouble is the intl market on certain routes is seasonal eg. in and out of Sydney.

In December all flights UK/USA to SYD are fully booked several months out but not SYD to UK, whilst in January its the other way around.

This was why QF pulled out of PER-PAR, it could not get additional slots and pulled the fleet out. It put them onto PER-LHR. QF has increased total capacity to Europe by 12% and loads have increased by more than that, so there is demand.

Admittedly loads to from UK is quite soft around February-April and October-November, but there are some great deals.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 1:14 pm

For a grand total of 78 flights per day between dallas and houston

Most of those flights ~40% (i.e. WN) are flown "poor-man's widebody" style with small aircraft taking off and landing one after the other. These flights are filled and are profitable as DAL-HOU has a strong O/D market and there is frequent need to be in both Dallas and Houston on the same day. I've flown this route maybe 4 times this year... always filled at peak hours.
 
keno
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 2:18 pm

BKK-SIN is served by 13 airlines, making it world's most 'crowded' sector in terms of competition.

1. Singapore Airlines
2. Thai Airways
3. Thai Air Asia
4. Tiger Airways
5. Valuair
6. Cathay Pacific
7. Garuda Indonesia
8. Turkish Airlines
9. Biman Bangladesh
10. Indian Airlines
11. Finnair
12. Swiss
13. SAS
 
roseflyer
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 2:54 pm

Connections probably have a lot to do with Houston-Dallas. There are over 5000 daily seats on the market which means 1 out of every 1000 residents in Houston would need to fly the route every single day. Since both cities are connection heavy hubs, it fills the flights, but the cities alone do not warrent the service.

Another example in the winter is SEA-ANC which has 17 daily flights, which is a lot more then O/D represents. It is mostly because AS funnels almost all of the O/D from Alaska through SEA.

The Tasman flights on the other hand are different since so many carriers fly the route and it is mostly O/D. New Zealand and Australia have their ties, but when both major carriers for the two countries in addition to EK widebody service among others serve the route, it is overkill that just drops the fares.
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F9Fan
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 2:56 pm

DEN-ATL is currently served by UA, DL, F9, and FL. DEN-PHX and DEN-LAS are served by HP, UA, and F9. I would also say the JFK/LGA/EWR-FLL/MIA route sees a lot of traffic.

F9Fan

 
LRGT
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 2:57 pm

NY Area-West Coast
NY Area-London
PHL-BOS (and PHL-PVD/MHT)
PHL-West Coast
Come to think of it...**ALL TRANSCON'S**

...NY to FL is not over-served since that is where everyone from NY goes!
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Marambio
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 3:00 pm

I believe AEP-MVD is overserved.

PU 4x daily
AR 2x daily (+1x daily EZE-MVD)
WK 1x daily

Total: 7 daily flights...for a 40-minute flight.

Aerovip also used to serve this route, but they went bust.

Saludos,
Marambio
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ramerinianair
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 3:23 pm

I forgot to post PHX-LAS over 10 flights there on WN alone.
I think most of the LUV-HOU traffic are people who like to travel WN who want to travel outside of the perimeter. They can't go n/s out of LUV to any states that don't border Texas with the exception of a couple due to the wright and shelby amendments.
Lrgt,
The NY-Florida market is very overcrowded!!!!
Load factors below 60% at times on the route on a whole is bad. DL cut all N/S service from ISP(and other small airports) and had to initiate SONG to even compete. Airlines are struggling so much to re-gain market share that they are offering drastic $49 fares to even attract customers!
SR
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PPVRA
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 3:28 pm

SDU-CGH

54 daily flights!!! and it takes less than 1 hour! (737, A320 series and F100s)

You literaly get to choose the minute you want to fly on...

If you include GIG-GRU flights, you can add another 30 flights per day!! (widebodies and narrowbodies)

PPVRA

PS: Weekdays only.

[Edited 2004-12-11 07:29:55]
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:00 pm

AKL-SYD is the biggest over-serviced trans-tasman route, followed by BNE then MEL.
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AAplatnumflier
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:03 pm

LAX-JFK has to be the winner!!
 
FlewGSW
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:04 pm

Before deregulation, it was between SFO and LAX. It use to be a case study.

You had United, PSA, Air California, Western, Delta, TWA, Pan Am, Hughes Airwest, even Braniff.

Now the #2 airline on this route is AA.
 
N1120A
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:12 pm

>DALLAS-HOUSTON, do we need a flight every 15 minutes?<

Um, WN sends those flights out full and 40% on walk ups, so no, it is not overserved.

>LAX-JFK has to be the winner!!<

Riiiiight, 2 of the biggest business and tourist destinations, each with metro areas over 20 million and loads of premium traffic are overserved? No
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ZKSUJ
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 6:00 pm

AKL-SYD/BNE. I can understand that NZ and QF serve it. But what is with the other 12 carriers, some without even a daily flight.
 
hardiwv
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sat Dec 11, 2004 11:34 pm

SDU-CGH

54 daily flights!!! and it takes less than 1 hour! (737, A320 series and F100s)

You literaly get to choose the minute you want to fly on...

If you include GIG-GRU flights, you can add another 30 flights per day!!


Indeed, from Sao Paulo to Rio de Janeiro you probably have a flight every minute!  Smile


 
nzblue
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Sun Dec 12, 2004 5:09 am

Just to support FlewGSW's point regarding service between Los Angeles (LAX, BUR, ONT, SNA, LGB) and San Francisco (SFO, OAK, SJC), I looked on our CRS and counted at least 140 one-way (!) flights between the Los Angeles-area and the San Francisco area on 6 airlines just for today (!!), including (and I'm sure I'm missing some, so please correct me if I missed any):

LAX-SFO
11 (UA)
9 (AA)
1 each (AS/HP)

LAX-SJC
8 (AA)
7 (WN)
6 (UA)

LAX-OAK
15 (WN)
6 (UA)

BUR-SFO
8 (UA)

BUR-SJC
6 (WN)

BUR-OAK
11 (WN)

SNA-SFO
6 (UA)
4 (AA)

SNA-SJC
7 (AA)
4 (WN)

SNA-OAK
7 (WN)
5 (AS)

ONT-SJC
5 (WN)

ONT-OAK
9 (WN)

LGB-OAK
5 (B6)

To me, that is a huge volume of traffic between two metro areas. Perhaps only somewhere on the East Coast (Boston through DC) can these numbers compete with Los Angeles-San Francisco? It would be an interesting comparison!

NZblue
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BA380
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Tue Dec 14, 2004 10:38 pm

Most of the above are just random guesses - in fact mostly the lists seem to simply list routes with a lot of capacity on. The question was which are 'over-served'. I guess the answers we should be looking for are which routes have low load factors as they are over-served. A route is not necessarily overserved just cos it has lots of flights... London-NYC is heavily served, but has good load factors through most of the year. Demand is high, so it is not overserved.
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A319114
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RE: Routes That Are Overserviced

Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:11 pm

A route can't really be overserved, at least not for a long time. That wouldn't make any sense, businesswise...
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