irishpower
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 11:44 am

We all know that Airbus has predicted it will sell over 1000 A380's in it's lifetime but I was curious to see how many A.Netters thought they would sell.

They have already sold approx. 130

My guess is about 750.

How many do you think???

 
col
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:07 pm

By the end of the run I would guess close to 1000 units. A large quantity will be freighters, and if they could get them certified - Combi's.

Col
 
EMBQA
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 12:48 pm

They'll be lucky to break 300 tops
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PPVRA
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 1:07 pm

I'll go with 400 units.
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airgeek12
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 3:14 pm

Already sold 130? When do they expect to have that last 130th unit deliverd to the carrier?
 
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HAWK21M
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:22 pm

What would be their rate of production/month.
regds
MEL
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irishpower
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:25 pm

I think they want to get to a point where they are delivering 4-5 a month.

Initially I think they are going to build 2-3 per month.
 
bill142
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:39 pm

Airbus eventually wants one rolling off the line each week. There are 149 orders confirmed and expect an annoucement from china before the end of feb.
This program by the time it ends will probably net closer to 1000 orders, if not more, then it will to 300 orders.
 
col
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:42 pm

It still amazes me how some people think that only a max of 300 to 400 units will be sold. Just got back from an Asian trip, and I can tell you that this thing is required now for some carriers. If SQ are only going to put 500 pax on, with special services like they offer on the 345, then the others will have to follow suit or loose the business. The services that can be offered cannot be done with a 744. Are the likes of BA, JL, ANA, KL, NW and UA going to let that happen in 2008/2009/2010. Don't think so, watch and see, SQ have some good ideas which will lead the market for the 380.
 
DutchFlyer
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:55 pm

They will sell as many planes as airliners/governments want to buy.

No plane more or less.
 
Udo
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:07 pm

They will sell as many planes as airliners/governments want to buy.

As happens with any aircraft type...  Insane


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Udo
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FCKC
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:37 pm

N.Forgeard said he was expecting to sell 750.He never said 1000.
We all reason in 2005 , without considering the future.
The growth in the civil aviation sector will be about 5% each year for the coming years.If nothing wrong happens on this earth (i am thinking of an event such as Sep11th) it could be more.Do not forget with the A380 , for the same price , all passengers (all classes) will get 30% more space than with the 747.So if you are intelligent you'll prefer to be in a 380 , rather than a 747 or a 777/340.It's simply human !!!!!!!
And without speaking of the economic advantages for the airlines , this plane will revolution the civil aviation transport.
This plane will be the first to burn 3 liters of fuel per passenger for 100 km , like a car !!!!!!!!!
Already airlines (EK , VS) put the pressure on Airbus to get the streched version (900).
So 750 frames is really reasonnable.

At the beginning , Airbus will produce 1 plane per week.

The A380 China Southern order will be signed next Friday at Paris.

Air China will sign theirs before the Summer.
 
Beaucaire
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 7:12 pm

The head of Lufthansa indicated during the roll-out last week that LH will most defenitely increase their number of A 380's .Knowing their focus on Asia and the USA,I would not be surprised to see Lufthansa operating 30 A 380's in ten years.
Same scenario would be valid for AF - so with three or four companies like EK,LH,AF and eventuelly Quantas ,Airbus could sell already close to 150 planes...
The figure of 750 planes seems ambitious but quite realistic.
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keesje
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 8:14 pm

Well as said elesewhere, Airbus & Boeing both think airtraffic will treefold in the next 20 years. More then 700 747 will retire in that period.

So .. 700+ doesn´t seem a to wild forecast.. plenty of room left then for 7e7/350´s to fill other market segments..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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aerorobnz
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 8:47 pm

I think if you consider the faith EK have put in the A388 it could reflect in the end what a lot of airlines will order. If you calculate that the existing carriers that have ordered A380s end up with similar numbers of A380 as they do have pax 747s (accounting for inevitable passenger growth on certain routes/new markets & flights + the 74A not being built/747 production stopping) AF/LH/SQ/QF/CX/VS/TG/KE (26+26+40+30+20+16+25+30) 213 + orders based on similar assumption from BA/IB/CZ/JL/NH/SA (57/6/6(think they ordered)/60/30/10) 169 + a total EK order of minimum 50 (more likely more) and you have 432 without any freighters/larger or smaller variants,any secondary type airline orders like EY/KL or any major orders from any American airlines (though I'm sure UA would join the party if everyone else was). I think that perhaps we may see 600 without too much effort, Assuming that we have 5 per month thats around 10 years of production which I consider would be a short production life. With all that in mind It would be reasonable to expect around 700/750.

The inevitable whining from Boeing fans fighting a Gihad against airbus will insue from that guestimate I'm sure, but I feel we will end up with fewer aircraft types flying in 15 years.
RJs/A32x sized replacement /7E7/A388
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Alessandro
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sun Jan 23, 2005 11:50 pm

Depends on future rules and fuel prices, if stage 4 is implemented in many parts of the world, older B747 planes will scrapped earlier, the AN-22/124/225 will also run into problem.
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Boeing Nut
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:12 am

My guess is 400-500.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
pac
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:15 am

well if there wont be any other 400+ Passenger plane built in the next 5-10
years ,they might sell 1200 + !!!!
 
mountain
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:38 am

800 if Boeing does not come out with 747ADV. Hard to estimate if Boeing comes out with any viable competition.
 
trevd
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:30 am

Believe it will all depend of whether Boeing builds the 747 ADV. If they do, then it think you will see a max of 100-150 A380's built and delivered.

If the 747 ADV is not built, you may see a max of 400-500. The only way this Program can get over 500 units is if nobody ever builds a 450 seater before 2020.
 
gearup
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:36 am

600 to 800 with a 747ADV
800 to 1K without a 747ADV or other VLA
Over a 20 year period
................easily

GU
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BlueSky1976
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:57 am

Realistically...
...between 400 and 500 frames - regardless if Boeing puts out a competitor or not. Keep in mind that it will take probably about 20 years or so to get to that number. Noone will order it in bulk - we'll be seeing a single orders of about up to a dozen frames.

...with the exception of Emirates, but somehow I don't see them buying a hundred of them...

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Planesmart
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:00 am

Gearup

You might not be too far out.

Both A & B predict a near trebling in passenger numbers to 2024. Even if you take a modest projection (say numbers double), how will this be possible?

Will LHR be doubled in size? Will the number of European airports be doubled?

Given it takes 5-7yrs to obtain construction consents in Europe to build a commercial airport, and well over 50% of the attempts to construct new airports or add runways have failed in the last decade, this only leaves doubling aircraft speed or increasing aircraft size, as ways to move more people with only small incremental increases in airport infrastructure.

B sees more smaller aircraft flying point to point, especially in the US. Airspace and airport limitations are likely to make this less viable in Europe, Asia and the ME.

Airport capacity is not as much of an issue in the USA, as projected growth over those 20yrs is nearly the lowest of any region.
 
mountain
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 10:34 am

Boeing has always said...there is not enough of a market over the next 20 years for two manufacturers to make money on a super jumbo. This could be a huge mis-calculated or a smart move. This is reminiscent of the L-1011 vs DC10. Neither Lockeed or McDonnell Douglas made any money on their trijets because the market was limited. Maybe one company..... could have. However, Boeing believes there could be a market for up to 2000 of the 7E7 or A350 type aircraft for both replacements and future expansion. Anyone agree with this?
 
lehpron
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:37 am

Depends on how long they run with it. I assume most planes have a 20-year cycle, so maybe 500-750 planes, which IMO is damned good. I know my number is low cuz I am not a sales expert.  Smile

I am not going to insist on a 1,000 not happening, but I will keep my eye on it.

For comparison, how many 747/A340 variants that which would represent their final product development have been purchased?
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
norjet
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:57 am

In today's St. Paul Pioneer Press, Tim Griffin, NW EVP Mktg & Distribution, says that Northwest doesn't see the A380 in its future. "The number of markets that can sustain aircraft...of that size is very limited. It's not a Heartland airplane. It will be a NY, LA, SF gateway airplane. I think you will see a few of them over time appear in those markets, but not a large number."

So I guess we can definitively strike *one* big customer from the A380 speculation and add one to the 747ADV chatter...

--Scott
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PPVRA
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:13 pm

I'll add something to my first post:

400 units in the first 10 years.

If it goes on popular than sure, they could get 750 in 20 years or so.

Cheers,

PPVRA
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
Reggaebird
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:44 pm


Airbus will never sell even 750 A380's in passenger-only form. I would be very surprised if they ever manage 400 pure passenger ones. I think that Boeing is going to spoil their little party with the 777, 7E7 and a plane in the 400-500 seat range. The same segmentation that happened with trans-atlantic traffic is bound to happen with pacific and middle-eastern traffic using those smaller planes. Travelers want frequency choices and A380's are not meant for high frequency routes. Indeed, they are designed to reduce flight frequencies. Mind you, I do believe that there is a huge (and I believe more appropriate) market for the thing as a cargo workhorse. For those passenger carriers that bought early, the novelty of "the bigness" will wear off when passengers begin to avoid bookings on these planes due to the "cattlecar" syndrome. In a desperate attempt to stem the tides of passenger defections, Airbuse will push the "combi" version to no avail. May the A380 proudly fly the colors of her cargo-carrying airlines that will be her saving grace.

 
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mariner
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:50 pm

Reggaiebird:

"...when passengers begin to avoid bookings on these planes due to the "cattlecar" syndrome."

Why would this apply to the A380 any more than the 747? It isn't that much bigger.

cheers

mariner
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irishpower
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 2:00 pm

OK--so now all of the posts begs the question.......

If Boeing comes out with the 747Adv.---how many 747's will they sell compared to the A380? I know that the 747 Adv. isn't going to be a direct competitor to the A380 but I would assume that large airlines with 747 fleets such as BA,JAL, and CX would opt for the 747 over the A380. I wonder how many frames Boeing would have to sell to break even--200?
 
keesje
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:43 pm

About this frequency thing..

If I travel from AMS to SEA thre is 1 daily direct flight.

The higher frequencies available come from the Hub-Hub opertions, I have 5 daily alternatives via the MSP and DTW hubs. (Even more, but those are less practicle..)

So can anyone explain me why hub-hub operations with widebodies are bad for frequencies ?

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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aerorobnz
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:57 pm

the A380 is not really designed to reduce frequency, it is designed to continue existing frequencies that could do with more seats on the route SIN-LHR,MEL-LAX.

If Boeing decide to risk it I don't believe it will sell very many passenger aircraft. How many 744ERs have been sold to pax operations? a few to QF & a couple to AF. It'd probably end up like the 747SP/764/739 before it as an aircraft with too much competition/niche carriers.
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
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scbriml
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:00 pm

I would assume that large airlines with 747 fleets such as BA,JAL, and CX would opt for the 747 over the A380.

Why? There would be very little in common between a 747-400 and a 747ADV, so it will effectively be intorducing a new aircraft type to the fleet.
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greaser
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:06 pm

Why? There would be very little in common between a 747-400 and a 747ADV, so it will effectively be intorducing a new aircraft type to the fleet.

Depends on who you talk to. Airlines that dont operate the a330/a340 or at least in small numbers will see the A380 as a new aircraft type. Futhermore, should the 747ADV have at least some similarity with either the 777 or 7E7, this could lessen the blow to exsisting 777/7E7 customers. Nevertheless, similar or not, both aircraft types will require new spares, new training.
Now you're really flying
 
Ready4Pushback
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:19 pm

I couldn't disagree with you more, Reggaebird. Why would airlines opt for a 7E7 if they wanted to move alot of passengers? I hope the 7E7 does well, but I don't think they compete, unless they persude airlines to go point-to-point - but QF aren't exactly going to opt for a 7E7 for their LHR-SYD or LAX-SYD routes are they? This is the sort of route that will be good for the A380.

I can't see LHR growing with respect to the number of slots personally, and I think airlines simply aren't attracted to flying to the regional airports. I also think that the A380 will do best in the growing Asian market most of all.

I second what Grearup and Mariner (<- I usually agree with what he says!) say about this.

Anyway, if Boeing were to come out with a A380 competitor, wouldn't they have to admit they were wrong, and that there is a market for 2 a/c of this size. I'm sure they said there wasn't? The A380 is going to be big - thanks mainly to the growing Asian market.
 
astuteman
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Mon Jan 24, 2005 9:08 pm

I think Gearup will be near the mark, although I think the presence of a 747ADV would have a bigger impact on A380 sales than just 200-300. Don't forget, being some 5-6 years newer, it would probably be more technologically advanced (e.g Trent 1000/Genxengines, 7E7 style CFC fuse etc).

I don't think that there is any doubt that there will be well over 1000 large aircraft sales in the next 20 years. There is a danger in extrapolating the US Airline market into the rest of the world. It doesn't work like that.

Ready4Pushback makes the point well, and there are LOTS of routes similar to SYD-LHR.

My view is that the reduction in 747 sales in recent years is due to a) competition from 777-300/A340-600 below it, and b) the advent of the A380 above,(all much more modern, efficient aircraft, by the way..) coupled to c) a recession in the airline industry post 9/11.

 
irishpower
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Tue Jan 25, 2005 3:02 am

I've heard many times that what the next generation 747 (747 ADV.) really needs is a new wing. can anyone tell me why?

I know the new generation of bleedless engines will help performance but what is Boeing going to do with a new wing. I've been told that the 747's wing being re-designed is the primary focus at Boeing.


 
leelaw
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Tue Jan 25, 2005 3:24 am

A388: 200 passenger transports and 100 package freighters, perhaps another 50 combis if type certification is achievable.

A389: 100 passenger transports.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
keesje
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Tue Jan 25, 2005 3:34 am

A388: 200 passenger transports

in that case carriers will shortly start cancelling their options..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
leelaw
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How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Tue Jan 25, 2005 4:03 am

"in that case carriers will shortly start cancelling their options.."

Maybe, or converting them to the A389. EK's Mr. Clark claims he really wants the A389 anyway. If airlines with multiple 744 departures to the same destination within short intervals really want to replace two aircraft with one, then only the A389 can provide the required lift.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
flyabunch
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RE: How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Tue Jan 25, 2005 4:59 am

Like most planes, one of the factors that will influence sales is the true performance. Up until now, everyone is buying on faith and I am sure that they all have performance criteria and penalties built into their contracts.

If the performance meets or exceeds the preliminary specs then I predict a long successful life with sales of over 800 birds. If the performance lags, then 400 max...with most going to cargo.

Mike
 
RIX
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RE: How Many A380's Will Airbus Sell?

Sat Jan 29, 2005 5:11 am

The air traffic will grow, but it all depends how much this particular sector will grow. 149 A380s are ordered - but this niche was empty, and is pretty small to be filled. By the other hand, no (or almost no) new passenger 747 orders - but there are hundreds of them flying, the niche is pretty much filled. 400-500 A380s delivered looks quite realistic, but if it goes 700+ - make no mistake, Boeing will design its own VLA. Disregard what they say today (look how fast Airbus changed from "7E7? - it already exists, called 330-200" via "OK, we don't worry at all about this 'Chinese copy'" to 350).

"all [380] passengers (all classes) will get 30% more space than with the 747" - how? More "floor space" is one thing, wider seats and more legroom - quite another. Additional armrest in the very middle is good, but it is hardly "30% more space"...

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