Some pie in the sky predictions to get things started:
- I think that we will see a slight drop in order numbers, but that will be picked up at the end of the year by a resurgant American Market.
- I believe that all of the major US carriers will launch long term order commitments near the end of next year. In particular look for UA to eliminate the remaining Boeing 737s with A320s and to order more 777s and possibly 787s to replace the 747s and older 767s. UA will ramp up their DEN hub with new international flights and more traffic and make serious inroads in Independence Air's markets.
- US airways will get a lot of good press around the middle of the year around how well the merger is working. Near the end of the year, it won't be so obvious. No major new orders will come other then the already agreed on A350 order.
- DL won't stay in bankruptcy long. As they emerge, expect a large order to replace the 767s and the older 737s. Boeing will accept these new orders in lieu of the huge backlog DL already has.
- AA will place a larger order to replace the A300s.
- NW will start putting pressure on both Airbus and Boeing to come up with a next generation replacement for the A320 and B737.
- Details on Boeing's 737 replacement will start to solidify later on in the year.
- Virgin Atlantic and British Airways will both get more nervious as parts of the openskies agreement start to get implemented. Both companies look to merge with a smaller US carrier.
- F9, FL, and B6 will continue looking at short distance international flights. One of them will also start to look at doing a LHR flight.
- The A380 will pick up a few more orders, mostly from China seeking to keep a tit for tat relationship with both the EU via Airbus and the US via Boeing.
- EK will shock the Aviation world by being the launch customer for the 787-10X.
- SQ will complete the Boeing Trifecta for a large widebody plane.
- the 787 will continue to outsell the A350 at a 3:2 ratio.
- The A320 will continue to outsell the 737 at a 3:2 ratio.
- The 777's dominance over the A340 will continue.
- Airbus will launch two new A340 models to counter the pressure from the 777.
- Oil prices will go down, but no where near as much as people are expecting. It will also spike higher then it did this year.
[Edited 2005-12-31 22:21:53]