aukahkay
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Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 12:21 am

In recent years, due to escalating oil prices and 9/11, several US airlines have filed for bankrupcy protection under Chapter 11 of the US Bankrupcy Code. So far, US, NW, UA and DL are under bankrupcy protection.
Do you guys think that AA is in imminent danger of bankrupcy?
 
Hannigan
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 12:23 am

Sun Country - I honestly have no idea.  irked 

[Edited 2006-01-21 16:25:37]
We got planes! We got gates! What the hell!
 
graham697
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:01 am

AA is in the best position compared to all majors, I think we have finally seen the industry balance out on that front.
Looking forward to the new AA
 
Cory6188
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:05 am

Quoting Graham697 (Reply 2):
AA is in the best position compared to all majors

I don't know if I necessarily agree. I know that AA is larger than CO, but it lost over $600 million in the fourth quarter, compared to CO's loss of "only" $128 million. AA is larger, but not five times the size of CO.

Also, for the year, CO lost $205 million, and AA lost $861 million.

All of the data are from the airline's press releases, by the way.
 
N723GW
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:10 am

Isn't or wasn't Aloha on the brink?
The dude abides
 
deltagator
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:13 am

My choice is WN. Their fuel hedges are running out and I predict they will have a worker revolt for higher wages , slower turnarounds, and less work. Just kidding.

I have no idea but AA seems a likely candidate given their high losses but CO is right there as well. CO may have only lost 128 million but they still have a huge amount of debt outstanding do they not? How much does AA have outstanding? And given US's lack of ability to learn from mistakes they could possibly end up back in bk court for a third time.
"If you can't delight in the misery of others then you don't deserve to be a college football fan."
 
SonOfACaptain
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:15 am

Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 5):
And given US's lack of ability to learn from mistakes they could possibly end up back in bk court for a third time.

How can you say that? There is a completely brand new time running US, or I should say US-East.

-SOAC
Non Illegitimi Carborundum
 
rst033
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:17 am

The news has not been great for CO. Kellner has already started talking about a rough market. Finally there is the lovable regime in Iran filling the world with its love and overall understanding jacking oil prices to unreasonable levels. I would not be surprised if Iran escalates the rhetoric they’re will be a slew of airlines going in the red.

Great time to buy some naked puts!
 
aukahkay
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:24 am

What about European carriers? Are any European carriers under bankrupcy protection presently? Sabena has gone bust long time ago. Which is next to go? AZ?
 
airlinespotter
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:33 am

Just want to clarify this: US is no longer under chapter 11 protection
 
Okie
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:37 am

Here is an ugly.
AA a division of AMR quits paying AE also a division of AMR.
AA declares bankruptcy and settles with AE for an airline. (sounding a little like TWA?)
AE says hey you AAers want a job well we got one for a 40% cut in your previous wages to operate AA LLC a division of AE.
Oh and by the way we only pay mainline wages on planes with 110 or more seats.

Okie

[Edited 2006-01-21 17:40:43]
 
deltagator
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:42 am

Quoting SonOfACaptain (Reply 6):
Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 5):
And given US's lack of ability to learn from mistakes they could possibly end up back in bk court for a third time.

How can you say that? There is a completely brand new time running US, or I should say US-East.

How much of the management is left over from those not so long ago days in bk court? They came out too quickly the first time and went right back. I personally don't think they are very strong after their second run through the court system but we'll see soon enough.

Quoting Airlinespotter (Reply 9):
Just want to clarify this: US is no longer under chapter 11 protection

I know. I was just saying that they didn't learn from their mistakes the first time and wound up right back in bk court. It could happen again.
"If you can't delight in the misery of others then you don't deserve to be a college football fan."
 
commavia
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 1:44 am

Quoting Aukahkay (Thread starter):
Do you guys think that AA is in imminent danger of bankrupcy?

Absolutely not, nowhere close. AA has more cash on hand with which to sustain itself than any other airline in America (including Southwest). AA is nowhere near bankruptcy.

Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 3):
I know that AA is larger than CO, but it lost over $600 million in the fourth quarter, compared to CO's loss of "only" $128 million. AA is larger, but not five times the size of CO.

You have to dig a bit deeper into the numbers. Of AA's $604M net loss, $220M was just net items, and of that, virtually all was in interest expense. I'm not saying that interest is not a real and growing problem for AA and other airlines trying to pay off long-term debt, but it does not reflect the core financial condition of the American Airlines operation as it stands today. AA's operating loss was $384M for the quarter, slightly more than for the same period last year, but AA also spent 33.4%, or $397M, more in 4Q05 than 4Q04 on juet fuel, which pretty much erased their entire profit margin. In essence, if AA was paying for fuel today what it was paying one year ago, it would have been operationally profitable for the quarter, and if it were paying for fuel today what it was paying in oh, say, the fourth quarter of 2001, it would be making huge operating and net profits. But, once again, fuel prices are part of the airlines' cost structures today, whether they like it or not.

As to the comparison of AA vs. CO, and which is financially stronger, it is a bit of a toss-up. While CO is doing better on a day-to-day financial basis, as evidenced by the fact that they had an operating loss margin for 4Q05 of -3.3%, compared with -7.4% for AA, it is also telling that AA has far more liquid cash as of right now, and that both companies have leveraged virtually all of their assets (although AA started out with far more assets to leverage). Bottom line, IMO: both are superbly run companies with committed management teams and employee workforces, and both are firmly on the road to recovery assuming that one or both of two things happens: a) fuel prices begin to stabalize, and/or b) airlines begin to regain some pricing control. Whether those two things happen, however, is very "up in the air" (pun intended). But I think all would agree that both AA and CO have come an enormous way since 9/11 in restructuring their operations and costs. Both are to be commended.
 
NIKV69
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Hannigan (Reply 1):
Sun Country

Doubt it

Quoting Graham697 (Reply 2):
AA is in the best position compared to all majors

I wouldn't say that, if it wasn't for their biz pax AA would be in worse trouble. CO is stronger IMO.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
deltagator
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 4:06 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):
Absolutely not, nowhere close. AA has more cash on hand with which to sustain itself than any other airline in America (including Southwest). AA is nowhere near bankruptcy.

The same thing was said about Delta right after 9/11 with the ridiculous amount of cash they had sitting around. They burned through it quite quickly. I'm not saying they will be in BK but it might happen one day.
"If you can't delight in the misery of others then you don't deserve to be a college football fan."
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):
AA has more cash on hand with which to sustain itself than any other airline in America (including Southwest). AA is nowhere near bankruptcy.

Cash on hand has little direct correlation to the absility go avoid bankruptcy... in fact, airlines need rather significant cash reserves to file and make it through bankruptcy in its own right.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 4:34 am

Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 3):
Also, for the year, CO lost $205 million, and AA lost $861 million.

Even though AA has about $2B cash on hand, they cannot continue to loose money at that rate.

Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 5):
My choice is WN. Their fuel hedges are running out and I predict they will have a worker revolt for higher wages , slower turnarounds, and less work. Just kidding.

WN just signed a new fuel hedge contract, around the 1st part of Nov. 2005. The new contract goes through 2009.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):
AA has more cash on hand with which to sustain itself than any other airline in America (including Southwest). AA is nowhere near bankruptcy.

How long do you think AA creditors are going to let them hold onto that cash without being paid? AA also needs a good portion to pay the "golden parachutes" for top executives who bail out just before they file for Chapter 11 protection.
 
COERJ145
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 5:18 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 3):
Also, for the year, CO lost $205 million, and AA lost $861 million.

Wasn't it a 68million loss for CO??

[Edited 2006-01-21 21:18:54]

[Edited 2006-01-21 21:19:22]
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 5:32 am

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 17):
Wasn't it a 68million loss for CO??

I believe that was the loss CO posted for the 3rd quarter (Jul-Sep). The posted a 4th quarter loss of $128M (Oct-Dec). CO's total loss for CY 2005 was $205M. IIRC, they actually made a few $M the first quarter (Jan-Mar).
 
deltagator
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 5:37 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 5):
My choice is WN. Their fuel hedges are running out and I predict they will have a worker revolt for higher wages , slower turnarounds, and less work. Just kidding.

WN just signed a new fuel hedge contract, around the 1st part of Nov. 2005. The new contract goes through 2009.

I was being facetious. I doubt though the new fuel hedges are as good as the ones they've had right now though.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 15):
Cash on hand has little direct correlation to the absility go avoid bankruptcy... in fact, airlines need rather significant cash reserves to file and make it through bankruptcy in its own right

Very true. You don't file for Bk when you have zero cash. You file well before it since you want to reorganize and not liquidate.
"If you can't delight in the misery of others then you don't deserve to be a college football fan."
 
FLYACYYZ
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 5:43 am

If for no other reason than to level the playing field in terms of lowering cost structure to be consistent with the other legacy players, my vote goes for AA.
Above and Beyond
 
USflysagain
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 6:12 am

Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 11):

How much of the management is left over from those not so long ago days in bk court? They came out too quickly the first time and went right back. I personally don't think they are very strong after their second run through the court system but we'll see soon enough.

Quoting Airlinespotter (Reply 9):
Just want to clarify this: US is no longer under chapter 11 protection

I know. I was just saying that they didn't learn from their mistakes the first time and wound up right back in bk court. It could happen again.

And I'm just saying that the US managment is completely different right now as Doug Parker (CEO of HP) is now in charge and righting the ship. While I understand using history as a precedent, this is too much of an unfair comparison at this point right now.

Usflysagain
 
IceTitan447
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 6:30 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):
Absolutely not, nowhere close. AA has more cash on hand with which to sustain itself than any other airline in America (including Southwest). AA is nowhere near bankruptcy.

I wouldn't say they are in the clear, and no you never said that! I think they need to restructure their airline a little more. UAL shaved 7 Billion, NWA needs 140million from concessions, how much will any of them save?

Here is an article that might offer some insight into this Question.
Enjoy!

It wont let me hyper link it, so here are a few paragraphs.
At least two airlines are expected to face greater financial challenges this year. Southwest Airlines, which has reported an annual profit for the past 32 years, is facing increased pressure this year because of fuel and labor costs.

Last year, Southwest was able to hedge 80 percent of its fuel prices at $26 a barrel, said airline analyst Ray Neidl of Calyon Securities Inc. This year, only 70 percent of Southwest's fuel is hedged at $36 a barrel. Financially stable airlines are able to off set the effect of fuel-price increases by hedging, or locking in low prices for future deliveries.


Here is some more.

In addition to its fuel concerns, Southwest's contract with its pilots becomes amendable in September.

JetBlue Airways is also expecting higher fuel bills this year because it has lower hedges compared with last year. "We're certainly not going to have the income statement on the hedges . . . in 2006 that we had in 2005," said John Owen, JetBlue's chief financial officer.

To offset the higher fuel prices, airlines such as JetBlue make fewer discounted seats available on flights.
AMERICAN
This month, American's regional carrier, American Eagle, begins charging $1 for a soda on flights out of Los Angeles as part of its newest revenue enhancement test. American, the nation's No. 1 carrier, is also considering charging for snacks, pillows and blankets. The new traveler charges are related to the vigorous cost-cutting moves by American's parent, AMR Group.

United Air Lines



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


United, the nation's No. 2 carrier, is focusing on expanding internationally as well as on growing its low-cost U.S. subsidiary, Ted. The airline also plans to spend about $400 million on new airport check-in kiosk machines, updating its computer systems and refurbishing its aircraft interiors. United has begun charging passengers $2 for each checked bag at its major hub airports including Washington's Dulles International, Chicago O'Hare and Denver International.


Delta Air Lines



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


No. 3 Delta has shuttered its two-year-old, low-fare Song subsidiary and is cutting operations, for instance by closing two-thirds of its gates at Orlando International Airport where it once was the region's largest airline. In September, Delta filed for bankruptcy protection and asked for an additional six months to submit its reorganization plan. Delta's pilots agreed last month to a 14-percent temporary reduction in hourly pay and other cuts equal to 1 percent. The cuts will save the airline about $143 million and will be in place until the pilots vote on a permanent agreement in March.

Northwest Airlines



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Northwest, which also filed for bankruptcy protection in September, plans to launch a subsidiary carrier, tentatively called NewCo, in 2007 to operate flights to smaller cities with 70- to 100-seat aircraft by 2010. But travelers may have to wait longer than that: The plan has faced increased opposition from Northwest pilots, who said the subsidiary could lead to the outsourcing of pilot jobs. This week, the airline's pilots and flight attendants both threatened to strike if the carrier is allowed to terminate its existing contracts.


Continental Airlines



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The airline is expanding to more profitable international routes, such as to Latin American and Europe, where there is less competition, particularly from low-cost U. S. airlines. Continental Airlines has restructured its operations outside of bankruptcy court. The Houston-based carrier reached a tentative agreement with its flight attendants union that could save the carrier about $72 million per year. The membership will vote on the contract later this month. The airline had targeted $500 million in annual concessions from its workers.

JetBlue Airways



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


With 100 new Embraer 190 100-seat jets, the airline is planning to expand to as many as eight new destinations this year, JetBlue's Owen said. The airline is also considering adding more longer-haul flights, trips of about 2,000 miles, that could connect the East Coast to many Midwestern destinations. Yesterday, the airline announced $25 one-way fares for flights between Dulles and Boston's Logan International Airport for tickets purchased by Tuesday, for travel to be completed by Feb. 15.

Southwest Airlines



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The nation's largest low-cost carrier continues to expand its route network. Southwest began service out of Denver this month, its third new destination in eight months. Analysts also expect Southwest to have more pricing power out of Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport because of the demise of Independence Air. In an effort to sell more seats, Southwest next month will join the majority of the airline industry by restricting the number of free seats it offers on each flight for redemption by members of its frequent-flier program. But frequent fliers will now have two years -- instead of one year -- to use their flight credits before they expire.

US Airways



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


After merging with America West last fall, the now-Tempe, Ariz.-based US Airways Group Inc. will spend the year trying to integrate both airlines' operations. The airline is focusing on combining the two reservation systems and Web sites by early 2007. Meanwhile, the airline has lowered its prices in key markets. The airline last month cut its prices on its shuttle between New York and Washington's Reagan National Airport by 44 percent on tickets purchased 21 days in advance. Yesterday, the airline cut fares to nearly 20 destinations by as much as 60 percent primarily on routes out of its three hub airports in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Charlotte


Kind of a nice read.
 
sunking737
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 6:56 am

Quoting Hannigan (Reply 1):
Sun Country - I honestly have no idea.

I don't think so bud, as they have already done it in 2001, and new owners took over April 2002. The investors have been very happy since day one.  Cool
Just an MSPAVGEEK
 
MEA-707
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 7:07 am

Frontier and Spirit aren't doing well lately, I just have the guts feeling one of them might just cease or file for chapter 11 overnight without anyone expecting it.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
aircanada014
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 7:08 am

I would say AA way before CO.
 
TACAA320
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:49 am

Quoting AirCanada014 (Reply 25):
I would say AA way before CO.

I respectfully disagree. But CO has been under chapter 11 more than once. AA ever never.
'Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind'. Albert Einstein
 
BigGSFO
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 8:57 am

Personally I think Hooters Air will be the next to go "tits-up" (pun intended).
 
Hannigan
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting Sunking737 (Reply 23):
I don't think so bud, as they have already done it in 2001, and new owners took over April 2002. The investors have been very happy since day one.

That's why I said I have no idea. I wasn't being serious.
We got planes! We got gates! What the hell!
 
JBLUA320
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:30 am

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 24):
Frontier and Spirit aren't doing well lately, I just have the guts feeling one of them might just cease or file for chapter 11 overnight without anyone expecting it.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Spirit go... They haven't been having too much luck lately. We hear little about them because they are private, but something just doesn't seem right over there...

As for Frontier... I think they'll be fine. They maybe aren't doing as well as they have in the past, but I think they are a long ways away from "not doing well."

JBLU
 
centrair
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:02 am

There has been a lot of talk of increasing foreign investment and lifting foreign ownership of U.S. carriers. I wonder if these changes come through, it will completely change the face of U.S. Aviation, reduce the number of airlines, and the number in BK.

AA has never been in BK, but that doesn't mean they can't do it. Didn't DL and NW file before some changes went into effect in BK law? What were the changes? If another carrier goes into BK, how do the new laws effect the carrer?
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
malaysia
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:40 am

What about Independence Air Mark 2?
There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
 
m404
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 3:18 pm

My guess is CO and AA simply based on feelings that to match the savings the other legacies will/have achieved in BK they will have to unless employees volunteer the savings - but that will do nothing for their debt.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
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LTU932
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 6:41 pm

Quoting Malaysia (Reply 31):
What about Independence Air Mark 2?

Doubtful. As if someone would want a DH v2.  Yeah sure

Quoting Centrair (Reply 30):
AA has never been in BK, but that doesn't mean they can't do it. Didn't DL and NW file before some changes went into effect in BK law? What were the changes? If another carrier goes into BK, how do the new laws effect the carrer?

I'm curious about that as well. I believe this could also be part of what hurt DH in its final months before folding. Though I reckon, even with the old bankruptcy laws in place, DH would have survived only a bit longer.
 
christao17
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 9:22 pm

Quoting IceTitan447 (Reply 22):
United, the nation's No. 2 carrier, is focusing on expanding internationally as well as on growing its low-cost U.S. subsidiary, Ted. The airline also plans to spend about $400 million on new airport check-in kiosk machines, updating its computer systems and refurbishing its aircraft interiors. United has begun charging passengers $2 for each checked bag at its major hub airports including Washington's Dulles International, Chicago O'Hare and Denver International.

Let's clarify something here:

That $2 charge is not for each checked bag. That charge is for each bag checked with a skycap, and it is not limited to the hubs. If you want the convenience of not waiting in a line at the counter, you pay extra for the service. That seems pretty reasonable to me.

On the other hand, when a mainline carrier starts charging $1 for a soda, I've got to wonder where the differentiation is between them and a no-frills LCC like Air Asia or Ryanair. From a consumer's perspective, what's the incentife to fly American (for example) if the fare is no better and the pretzels and soda aren't free?

Not that I'm saying airlines shouldn't charge for sodas, etc. but I've got to think that carriers like UA and CO that are making some effort to go after customers who might actually pay a little extra for some frills are choosing a good path.

My two cents.
Keeping the "civil" in civil aviation...
 
Jamake1
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:16 pm

Without trying to create a mutiny on this board, my guess would perhaps be Spirit Airlines. They have a brand new fleet of airbus aircraft and are charging incredibly low fares in a market that is intensely competitive, with AA just to the south. I know that they are a private company, but I seriously wonder just how well they are doing....
United's B747-400. "She's a a cruel lover."
 
LSPA
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Sun Jan 22, 2006 10:25 pm

Oil prices when up about the same in every country around the world (Europe probably the most).
So my guess is that every airline needs to adjust ticket prices to compensate the loss.
~reach for the sky!
 
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antoniemey
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting LSPA (Reply 36):
So my guess is that every airline needs to adjust ticket prices to compensate the loss.

Which would work, IF all the airlines would do it... but you have holdouts like WN (Due to hedges) or NW (Due to management stupidity) and then everyone goes back down to retain business.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
 
whitehatter
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 6:24 am

If Iran becomes a problem with military action by the Israelis or other countries then oil could spike to over $100 a barrel. And in that environment anyone is at risk, and not just US carriers.

Too much blind faith is being put in oil futures trading, forward dated supply contracts and hedging in general (of all forms). If supply suddenly suffers a disruptive event like Iran flaring up into a major problem, then every carrier has hard choices to make.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
aerokiwi
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:12 am

Quoting Okie (Reply 10):
Oh and by the way we only pay mainline wages on planes with 110 or more seats

Exactly what is so unreasonable about that? Seems perfectly fair to me. Perhaps not to you but then they may be why labour costs are so much of the problem for US legacy carriers.
 
nkops
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:24 am

Quoting Jamake1 (Reply 35):
Without trying to create a mutiny on this board, my guess would perhaps be Spirit Airlines

I can tell you that NK is not making money, but not in imminent danger of filing BK (or so they tell us!!!)
:evil:
 
AJMIA
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RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:02 am

Not CO/AA. You cannot go into BK just to throw out your contracts and lower your cost. I think they will work out their issues on their own before BK becomes a problem/option.

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 27):
Personally I think Hooters Air will be the next to go "tits-up" (pun intended).

I agree 100%. There have been some ominous signs recently.

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 24):
Frontier and Spirit aren't doing well lately



Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 29):
I wouldn't be surprised to see Spirit go...



Quoting Jamake1 (Reply 35):
my guess would perhaps be Spirit Airlines

I also agree. They are charging some incredible prices lately and no matter what you say... You do not offer a $9.00 fare to Jamaica to fill unused seats and maintain market share.
Also AA has not backed of NK like they have been with WN and B6. They are going at them tooth and nail.

AJMIA
Lady it's a jet... not a kite.
 
ChiGB1973
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2004 6:39 am

RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:19 am

Quoting DeltaGator (Reply 19):
Very true. You don't file for Bk when you have zero cash. You file well before it since you want to reorganize and not liquidate.

This is very true. TZ should have filed a long time before they did. TZ tried for years to get the lease payments adjusted through lawyers and/or in some business way. Mr Mikelsons told me this himself.

Word around the company is that one executive got fired for insisting or pushing for bankruptcy a couple of years ago. Right before TZ filed, he was hired back. I cannot remember his name, and it is hear say.

I think Mr Mikelsons tried very hard not to allow the bankruptcy to happen. He started the company with one plane, driving the customers on the bus to the plane, started the largest travel club in the U.S., maybe the world. I do not think anyone could argue that he was not looking out for the best interest (at least what he thought was) of ATA. The problem probably had to do with his ego, but he never wanted to see what has happened. Mr Mikelsons wanted to pay what he owed, he wanted to work out some lease payments that fit more in to today's airline environment. I think it hurt him to the core for ATA to file. Unfortunately he should have been a little more hard core, filed and worked on getting less expensive aircraft. In this case, his personal ethics: to pay what he owed, a bit of ego, a desire to keep people employed did not work out and you see what happened.

Maybe I misjudged him? Maybe he was not the kind of person who cared? As I said before, even the most hard-hearted person (not him) in the world would not want to see what they built from nothing end up in shambles. I think he cared and thought he was doing the best thing for TZ. I am sure a lot will agree and a lot will disagree.

M
 
vv701
Posts: 5773
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 10:54 am

RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:57 am

Quoting Aukahkay (Reply 8):
What about European carriers? Are any European carriers under bankruptcy protection presently?

No. There is no Chapter 11 Protection in Europe. If you are declared bankrupt in Europe then you go out of business and your assets are sold off by an appointed administrator and the proceeds distributed amongst your creditors. Sabena and Swissair are two majors that have gone to the wall. Most at risk today are probably Olympic and Alitalia. Next? Well, possibly Scandinavian but that's a bit more of a long shot.
 
jamesjimlb
Posts: 940
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2006 11:48 am

RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 10:57 am

I personally think that delta is gonna go bankrupt because i heard something about them cancelling song. yet i also think some of the "small airlnes" are gonna go soon.
The sky is no longer the limit, but the mere minimum
 
bongo
Posts: 1783
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2003 5:32 am

RE: Which US Airline Is The Next To Go Bankrupt?

Wed Jan 25, 2006 12:46 pm

Just to add some info to your post:
Predictions:Airlines To Disappear In The Next 2 Yr (by Bongo Jun 23 2005 in Aviation Polls & Prefs)
MDE: First airport in the Americas visited by the A380!

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