AC345
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Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:14 pm

767-300ER and 777-200ER were the most popular of their respective family. Which variant of the 787 will be the star, and why? I'd ask the question about the 350/370 family but I don't know exactly what the new variants will be (if there will be another redesign).
 
centrair
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RE: Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:38 pm

But since we can look at the 777-2ER and 767-3ER in retrospect we can know what is/was popular. My crystal ball has been broken for a little while. But if we look at the orders so far I think it would be the 787-8. Followed by the -9 and -3. Once the -10 is released it could change some of the order but I believe the spirits are telling me the -8 will still be popular. It helps replace some 767s and A330s as well as allow for expansion.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
A350
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RE: Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 2:23 pm

In my crystal ball I clearly see the -9. Many airlines replaced 767s and A310s by A332s, demonstrating that it is possible to sell those seats. The -9 is just the most versatile tool, allowing regional flights as well as real longhaul while providing an extra jump in CASM over the -8. It also perfectly suits for leisure carriers. It'll become the A330 successor.

The -3 will obviously be specialized on regional routes and be the plane of choice for everyone who needs just that. It will completely dominate this market which is, however, a limited one. The -8 will do a bit of everything, I think many will be abused on short haul.

As said above, my crystal ball is responsible for that post, not me.

Greetings from Berlin

A350
 
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Zkpilot
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RE: Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:51 pm

I think the 787-9 will be. It is the replacement model for the 767-300ER with more capability. The 787-8 will also be popular, but with the -9 having greater range and bigger payload it explains why airlines like NZ converted from the -8 to the -9. The -10 will be an ongoing success but may be slow to start with as many airlines still have relatively new 772/ER's and are unlikely to add another type unless they are going to order at least 10 of them. In 10 years time however I would expect to see large -10 sales but not as high as the -9
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RayChuang
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RE: Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 10:13 pm

I think the 787-9 will be popular because not only is it a 767-300(ER) replacement, but also a replacement for many A300B planes, too. This especially true if Boeing does offer a lower-MTOW version with a range of around 5,500 nautical miles, something highly-desireable by many airlines that don't need to 7,000+ nautical mile range of the current 787-9. The lower-MTOW 787-9 would certainly interest American Airlines, who can used them to replace the A300B4-600R on routes to the northern half of Latin America from JFK and MIA.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:25 pm

Honestly? I would not be surprised if the 787-3 becomes the most popular version.

Why?

Because I believe as domestic Chinese and Indian traffic rises, the 787-3 is a solid platform to move them around, just as it will be for Japanese domestic traffic.

I know many believe an "A380D/A380SR" will sell by the hundred into these markets, but Airbus has yet to show the desire to develop such a version of any of their planes and even if they do, such a plane will have significantly higher CASM then a 787-3, even if it does carry twice the folks.

Also the 787-3 requires significantly less infrastructure upgrades to handle it, which will be important for scores of cities that are not currently rated for widebodies, period, much less million pound widebodies. So the potential market could very well be in the hundreds for this model.
 
airmailer
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RE: Which 787 Variant Will Be Most Popular?

Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:50 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Honestly? I would not be surprised if the 787-3 becomes the most popular version.

Why?

Because I believe as domestic Chinese and Indian traffic rises, the 787-3 is a solid platform to move them around, just as it will be for Japanese domestic traffic.

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But don't forget about destinations like LAS and MCO, or any other place that people in North America flock to on the weekends.

I have flown to LAS and MCO on a 764 many times, and every single time (and I do mena EVERY TIME) the entire plane was packed.

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