af773atmsp
Posts: 2039
Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2006 1:37 am

US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Wed Sep 20, 2006 8:53 pm

AA, UA, CO, and NW are battling for a new route to China. If NW wins then there will be non stop service between DTW and Shanghai. I vote for NW because if I was going to Shanghai then I would just need to take a short flight to DTW, and then on to my destination. Who votes for which airline?
It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
 
SeeTheWorld
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:46 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Wed Sep 20, 2006 9:08 pm

Quoting Af773atmsp (Thread starter):
AA, UA, CO, and NW are battling for a new route to China. If NW wins then there will be non stop service between DTW and Shanghai. I vote for NW because if I was going to Shanghai then I would just need to take a short flight to DTW, and then on to my destination. Who votes for which airline?

There have been several threads on this topic. Not to burst your bubble, but NW as virtually no chance to win this route. NW currently has the rights to fly nonstop from DTW and MSP to China and chooses to use their 35 weekly frequencies over Tokyo NRT because they don't have the proper size aircraft for a DTW-China flight, i.e. the 744 is too big and the A330 doesn't have the range. Because of this, the DOT would never award the route to NW over the competitive applications of AA, CO, and UA.
 
UA933
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2006 5:57 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Wed Sep 20, 2006 10:55 pm

My guess is that UA will get it because it would be a capital to capital service which can only be in the interest of the us gouvernment and they have already spoken in favour of UA. I guess they are trying to influence the DOT.
united - It's time to fly!
 
SeeTheWorld
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:46 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Wed Sep 20, 2006 11:30 pm

Quoting UA933 (Reply 2):
My guess is that UA will get it because it would be a capital to capital service which can only be in the interest of the us gouvernment and they have already spoken in favour of UA. I guess they are trying to influence the DOT.

That's not how it works. While there may be some politicos that try to influence the decision, the fact is that DOT usually spreads the wealth around when it is able. There are several factors that go into awarding these routes. If you review the decisions in the last two cases, you will see what factors they consider. Because UA has 28 weekly frequencies, and AA and CO only have 7 each (one daily roundtrip), one of the other is an odds-on favorites to be chosen. While the UA application was shrewd, I don't think capital-to-capital is enough. Both the AA and CO applications are competitive and each has its pros and cons. The DOT could easily justify either one.
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2142
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 12:17 am

Lets be honest, no one knows how this will swing. A capital to capital service has the prestige etc going with it and makes economic sense but AA and CO will argue so does there's. I dont think NW will have a chance in hell of getting it IMHO.
 
UA933
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2006 5:57 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:33 am

When will DOT decide on the matter?
united - It's time to fly!
 
supa7E7
Posts: 1360
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2004 2:05 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:43 am

The original poster is quoting this article.

http://www.startribune.com/535/story/688274.html

In it, no mention is made of NW's already holding these permissions. That seems an omission worthy of a letter to the editor.

Also, it is funny that AA CEO says the leaders are AA and CO. I tend to think UA has an excellent chance and maybe there is some PR poker going on.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2142
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:47 am

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 6):
Also, it is funny that AA CEO says the leaders are AA and CO. I tend to think UA has an excellent chance and maybe there is some PR poker going on.

I would say Arpey is to a degree bluffing but thats the name of the game I guess. If I had to say who the top two were I would say UA and CO.
 
SeeTheWorld
Posts: 1090
Joined: Sat Dec 31, 2005 2:46 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 1:47 am

Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 4):
Lets be honest, no one knows how this will swing. A capital to capital service has the prestige etc going with it and makes economic sense but AA and CO will argue so does there's. I dont think NW will have a chance in hell of getting it IMHO.

Honesty aside, if you read the DOT's decision on AA and CO for China in the last round, you get a pretty good idea of their thinking and begin to see why a UA win, while possible, is unlikely.

Quoting UA933 (Reply 5):
When will DOT decide on the matter?

November or December was when it was announced last time, so certainly by the end of the year to give the winner three months of ramp up.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4460
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:30 am

Quoting SeeTheWorld (Reply 1):
Not to burst your bubble, but NW as virtually no chance to win this route.

Absolutely. NW has everything going against them on this one. They already have tons of frequencies to China (via NRT). That is something the DOT will take into consideration.

Quoting UA933 (Reply 2):
My guess is that UA will get it because it would be a capital to capital service

I doubt it. UA has a better chance then NW, but they already have a many frequencies to China as well. I think the capital to capital thing will matter very little, if at all.

I think this one is going to come down to AA and CO. And they are pretty much neck and neck. My money is going to go on AA for this one.
It is what it is...
 
rwsea
Posts: 2423
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 2:23 pm

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:51 am

NW doesn't stand a chance because they could operate the route tomorrow if they wanted to.

AA has a weak proposal, mainly because DFW has nil O&D traffic to China, and because they keep adding and dropping Asian routes willy-nilly. They just can't seem to make anything stick in Far East Asia other than NRT (and the new ORD-PVG service, but that really isn't comparable).

UA makes the best case, but I could see CO getting it only because they have only one daily flight to China.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2214
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 2:55 am

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 10):
W doesn't stand a chance because they could operate the route tomorrow if they wanted to.

IINM, so could UA. They could just as easily reallocate one of their exsisting frequencies to IAD-PEK.
 
ord
Posts: 1356
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 1999 10:34 pm

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:08 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 11):
IINM, so could UA. They could just as easily reallocate one of their exsisting frequencies to IAD-PEK.

The point of the original comment was that NW could add Detroit-China nonstop without sacrificing another U.S.-China flight (they would need to drop a Tokyo-China flight). NW has China rights, they just choose to use them out of Tokyo.

UA uses their rights for nonstop U.S.-China flights (SFO and ORD to both Beijing and Shanghai). If UA added IAD-China they would have to drop one of their other U.S.-China routes, which would not result in any gain of U.S.-China nonstops.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4460
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:08 am

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 10):
AA has a weak proposal, mainly because DFW has nil O&D traffic to China

Agreed that currently DFW has not very much O&D traffic to China, but the area is growing and does have potential. On top of that DFW has one of the best feeds from hub cities in the country (the best with the possible exception of ATL and ORD). ATL for example has very low O&D traffic to China (less than DFW) but I have no doubt it could be sucessful as well. I think they make a good case.
It is what it is...
 
texan
Posts: 4061
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2003 2:23 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting Supa7e7 (Reply 6):
Also, it is funny that AA CEO says the leaders are AA and CO. I tend to think UA has an excellent chance and maybe there is some PR poker going on.

AA and CO are in the lead because they have no service to China. One of the very few things that has been made clear in these issues is that the DOT wants to see more competition and more carriers to Asia and specifically China. Every so often, so long as the current agreement is in place, route authorities are opened up only for carriers who already have flights to China and only those carriers. That is where UA and NW have their best shot.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4460
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 3:33 am

Quoting Texan (Reply 14):
AA and CO are in the lead because they have no service to China.

They do have service just not much. AA has a daily ORD-PVG and CO has a daily EWR-PEK as well as a route EWR-HKG.
It is what it is...
 
UAL777UK
Posts: 2142
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:16 am

RE: US Airlines Battling For New Route To China

Thu Sep 21, 2006 5:22 am

DFW are certainly fighting in AA's corner thats for sure.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060920/daw005.html?.v=70

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: CDG777FAN, gabrielchew and 11 guests