Slcpilot
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Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Tue Oct 24, 2006 6:54 am

81

Here's your chance to shine and show the world you "called it" way back in 2006! Your post must start with a number standing alone (like this post), and then your reason.

I think Airbus will slowly produce 25 A-380, and then cancel the program. They will promise the customers they will produce aircraft already "sold", but cancellations will reduce this number.

Hopefully this will be an interesting thread 10 years from now. Too bad we can't put $10 each into a pool  Wink.

SLCPilot
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PlymSpotter
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Tue Oct 24, 2006 9:20 am

Quoting SLCPilot (Thread starter):
I think Airbus will slowly produce 25 A-380, and then cancel the program. They will promise the customers they will produce aircraft already "sold", but cancellations will reduce this number.

In that case you completely are mad.

It would cost Airbus more to end the production and pay what would be massive repercussions to the airlines who have firm orders than it would to carry on production, even at a loss for the total orders they have so far.

I am saying the region of 400-500 after about ten years of production, to be exact lets say 461 aircraft.

Dan Smile
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
xjramper
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 12:32 am

Hmm..i would say they will only produce about 30.

The world needs a quicker aircraft, not a greyhound that ruins airports.

Soon the world will realize it, and the quicker it does, the less this aircraft will be produced.

XJR
Look ma' no hands!
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:41 am

221

Filler

Filler
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osiris30
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 1:58 am

Quoting SLCPilot (Thread starter):
Hopefully this will be an interesting thread 10 years from now.

121 total.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
zvezda
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:03 am

My guess is probably about 100 after some cancellations.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:29 am

1-1000..final answer.. Smile

seriously though...probably >250 < 300 frames..
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Rj111
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:57 am

I too am going to go 250-300 + a backlog.

I am willing to bet one crisp.
 
bringiton
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 3:31 am

Lets see , they have 159 orders so far till around 2012-2014 or so . I'd expect them to sell about 300-350 new ones over and above that which gets to a total of around 500-550 . Add another 50 or so to be on the safe side and i predict clse to 600 airframes till around 2023-2025 .
 
SuseJ772
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 4:09 am

272

I know I'll get flamed for saying this, but I think the A380 will be a similar story to the MD11. Both are phenomenal planes, that have major advancements compared to their counterparts (i.e. MD-11 over DC-10 & A380 over 747). However, due to various different reasons (i.e. MD-11 eventually losing out to the 777 and A330 in cheaper maintenance cost of 2 engines vs. 3 engines, and the A380 not utilizing as much "new generation" technology such as the 787, etc...), I think both planes will go down as being great flying machines, just built with the wrong timing.

The project won't be a huge failure (as some on these forums claim ... *cough* thread starter), but it won't be the success I think Airbus, and some others in the industry projected it to be (just like the MD-11). There are my reasons, let the flaming begin.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
Slcpilot
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 4:19 am

Quoting SuseJ772 (Reply 10):
The project won't be a huge failure (as some on these forums claim ... *cough* thread starter),

81

Thread starter here  .

Just to make it interesting, I AM PLEDGING $100 TO THE PERSON THAT COMES CLOSEST TO THE ACTUAL NUMBER.

In the event of a tie, the money will be split. This isn't a joke, and I'll actually pay the money (although in the future $100 won't be what it is today). It should be enough for a fun night of beers and hangar flying.

Spread the word, make it an interesting thread, and let's celebrate it one way or the other when it's all said and done. BTW, I'd be equally happy if the number is 81 or 1081.

Cheers!

SLCPilot

PS> And no, you can't post, 1,2,3,4,......etc. One guess per screen name. You may, however, or additional airframes to make your guess the right one  Wink.

[Edited 2006-10-24 21:22:26]
I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 4:54 am

262

delivered as of 23:59Z on 24-Oct-2016. Based entirely on adrenalin.  Wink
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:15 am

293

filler

filler
 
SuseJ772
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:42 am

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 11):
Thread starter here .



Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 11):
BTW, I'd be equally happy if the number is 81 or 1081.

I am just giving you a hard time. I don't think any of us aviation enthusiasts really want to see a project fail. But you gotta admit, people at Airbus would think the project were a failure if only 81 A380s were sold.

P.S. I love the premise of this thread.
Currently at PIE, requesting FWA >> >>
 
eatmybologna
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 6:02 am

I'm a little confused.

Are you looking for a number of produced A380s ten years from now or total number of Superjumbos made?

I'll wait to hear back from you before I respond, as I think they'll still be making them after 24th October, 2016.

Thanks,

E-M-B
Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
 
nitrohelper
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 12:20 pm

By 2016? They should be in service by then!  flamed 
I place my bet at 380 total. I don't know how many CEOs it will take to get there?
 
Slcpilot
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:08 pm

81

Number first, always. Total A-380 aircraft built and flown. To include prototype aircraft. No tricks, just a simple number.

And as I tried to communicate before, you may order additional aircraft so the total comes up to your predicted number.

Try and spread the word, this should be a more interesting thread!

SLCPilot
I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
 
Woosie
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:29 pm

210

Sounds good. I think some of the firm orders will cancel and Airbus will pickup orders through its lifetime.
 
BoeingOnFinal
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 3:32 pm

I think Airbus will stick with the program all the way. They know they have to sell alot of frames to even out, economics wise. And I think they will stick it out.

So 480 frames for me. Man will there be a long time before I get to see if I win :p
norwegianpilot.blogspot.com
 
eatmybologna
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Oct 25, 2006 10:31 pm

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 16):
And as I tried to communicate before

How about communicating to my question (reply 14)  Smile

Thanks,

E-M-B
Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
 
Slcpilot
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:03 am

81

Eatmybologna, I thought I did. The number is to be the total A-380 flying aircraft ever produced. This number should include Prototype and any other versions produced (i.e. A-380F, A-380-800, A-380-900 etc.). The goal is not to evade or trick trick anybody. To be fair, it seems reasonable that only guesses made within six months from today's date be considered.

Spread the word! An EASY $100 ! !

Cheers!

SLCPilot
I don't like to be fueled by anger, I don't like to be fooled by lust...
 
eatmybologna
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:11 am

275 total

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 20):
The number is to be the total A-380 flying aircraft ever produced.

O.K., but then why are some posters writing things like "By 2016 they'll produce..." or "delivered as of 23:59Z on 24-Oct-2016." ?

Cheers,  Smile

E-M-B
Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Mon Oct 30, 2006 2:55 am

1000

by 2030. That's an average 2.85 aircraft per month - a little pessimistic maybe. There's further potential in the desgin, it will get stretched, get new engines twice, and a new CFRP wing using 350XWB design philosophy.
 
keesje
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:15 am

Well lets see

- Market outlooks of Boeing, GE, Airbus & RR foresee nearly trippling of air traffic is the next 20 years & a doubling of # aircraft

- Assuming a service live of 100k hrs, 800 747-400 have to be replaced in that period

- Boeing been enlarging its VLA design and has gradually been increasing its vla´s market forecast approaching 1000 aircraft now, a few more upward adjustments ->1500?

- In the last 5 years the market has seen a clear preference for A380 passenger aircraft over q series of new 747 designs

- recent orders after the A380 entered the flight test program seem to confirm the A380 is able to do what it is supposed to do


- continued high oil prices will force airlines to look for scale & low CASM aircraft.

- 80% of current air traffic (psk) is between hubs

- the world population seems to continue to concentrate around economic centers all over the world.

- the A380-800 is the first of a family that will develop in the next 25 with versions offering more capasity, range or both. After the -F Airbus indicates the -800R and -900 are on the line, many of it´s design requirements already included in the current -800

- the 747, A300, 767, D10/M11 and other twin aisles have all been inproduction for more then 25 yrs, I see no reason why the A380 should not

All this leads me to believe Airbus will produce over 800 A380s of various versions over the next 25-40 years.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
futureuapilot
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:22 am

333

Good even number...  Wink
-Sam
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David L
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:41 am

Quoting SLCPilot (Thread starter):

Hmm... I see you included me in your list in another thread. I'll tell you right here and now I know nothing of aircraft production and its economics. I've given up even taking an active part in threads about A380 production. All I've ever said in the past is that I believe there is a market (albeit a niche market) and that the 380 is fundamentally a decent aircraft. I never said Airbus management wouldn't screw things up! I'm still optimistic enough to believe they'll get their act together.  Smile

Just for the hell of it, I'll take a wild guess, and that's all it is, and say 500 in total, not just within the next ten years.
 
bwohlgemuth
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Mon Oct 30, 2006 9:58 am

Airframes? 419

Profitable? Yeah, but we're talking less than three billion over its lifetime

Revs? I think they will come out with a -200 series, they will learn TONS from the A380 failures when it gets into production, and will tweak the planes quite a bit.

I see this plane being retrofitted by Fed Ex, UPS might pick up a few frames in the future, but I think the biggest seller is going to be to LH carriers and to companies that start offering all business/first class seating.

Oh, and eventually, Branson will own one for his own personal use.  Wink
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:35 am

I would expect in the mid 300's to be made.

For symbolism I say 350 produced, to go along with that concept plane that has new versions and a later EIS with each season.

Jay in Kitsap
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:45 am

The Boyd Group is now forecasting 350 or less.

Quote:
From the beginning, the best we could see for this aircraft was 450 units. Today, we're even less optimistic, with global demand indicated to be 350 or less. Both of these forecasts varied widely from those of either Airbus or Boeing, but, regardless of production delays, other forecasts are gravitating downward toward a number closer to ours.

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm
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UA777300ER
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:07 am

450

Once the first planes are operational and production has reached full capacity, I expect more orders coming in.

Greetz
Tom
 
Slcpilot
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:53 am

81

Please keep to the format, number, then your guess, then your reason. This is thread for discussion as well, just always start with your number. Also, please don't give a range, but only a number to be on record. On a few I've had to interpret what number the person wanted. It will be fun to read this years from now!

Cheers!

SLCPilot

An update on the guesses.....

As of now, the average guess is 356.

30 Xjramper
81 SLCpilot
100 Zvezda
121 Osiris30
210 Woosie
221 BoomBoom
262 TeamAmerica
272 SuseJ772
275 Jacobin777
275 Eatmybologna
275 RJ111
293 Gunsontheroof
333 FutureUApilot
350 JayinKitsap
380 Nitrohelper
419 Bwohlgemuth
450 UA777300ER
461 PlymSpotter
480 BoeingOnFinal
500 David L
600 Bringiton
800 Keesje
1000 Rheinbote
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bushpilot
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:00 am

240.
Production delays are killing Airbus on this one. I think we are on the verge on changing the outlook we take on building aircraft for the future. I think it will go down in history as a great machine that was to late for its time. See DC-6 and Lockheed Constellation as examples.
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Wed Nov 01, 2006 6:56 am

843
dunno why. just a number I choose
 
da man
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Fri Nov 03, 2006 6:43 am

370
There will be an eventual demand for the aircraft, even though it won't be the most technologically advanced, but the need for this level of mass transit will manifest itself.
War Eagle!
 
aerosol
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:43 am

450 - or Break even. That includes derrivatives. It will not sell as well as the 747-400. Why - because there are more models offered now than back then (fragmented market).

In the future you will be able to choose your widebody from:
777 2/3/3er
332/333/342/346/350
787/3/8/9
748
 
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Btriple7
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:13 am

Quoting SLCPilot (Reply 10):
In the event of a tie, the money will be split. This isn't a joke, and I'll actually pay the money (although in the future $100 won't be what it is today). It should be enough for a fun night of beers and hangar flying.

Spread the word, make it an interesting thread, and let's celebrate it one way or the other when it's all said and done. BTW, I'd be equally happy if the number is 81 or 1081.

Seriously, by the time we actually know how many A380s will have been produced, $100 will be worth a lot less than it is today. That is unless the A380 program goes down the hole within the next few years, which I doubt will happen.

Anyway if A.net still exists by then, put me down for...

567

Regards,
Btriple7
Just...fly.
 
Tan Flyr
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RE: Total A-380 Production (be On Record Here!)

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:18 am

My guess total of all types..224.

By 2016 100 frames.


As we all cussed and discussed in thread last summer, and have numerous times since, there are various criteria to measure "success" or "failure".
Will it be a white elephant? maybe..maybe not quite..Not a failure like Concorde (sales wise) Not a success like say the 737 either. Maybe an analogy might be the L-1011..A technical jump, but a business failure as it never made a dime for Lockheed.

I just don't think it will be the roaring end -all answer that some believe.

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