keesje
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A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation History?

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:05 am

We were drifting of topic in another 747-8i thread :
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/3698447/

I think the 7e7 was launched 26 April 2004, or 42 months ago and the A350 XWB on December 4 2006, or about 11 months ago.

Future Pilot did some calculations then Stitch stated :

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
Let us not forget that some of those A350XWB orders were first A350 orders, shall we?

I would like to see the real official number: real orders for the 787 and A350XWB after their official launches.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Stitch
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:27 am

The 7E7 was granted ATO - Authority to Offer - on December 16, 2003. The first 7E7 order was for 50 planes by NH on July 26, 2004.

The 7E7 became the 787 on January 28, 2005. The first "787" order was placed by the Chinese for a total of 60.

The A350XWB was granted ATO on July 17, 2006. The first A350XWB order was AY on March 8, 2007.

So the numbers are:

  • 7E7/787: First Order to Date: 736 orders in 1203 days or .612 7E7s/787s ordered per day.
  • 7E7/787: ATO to Date: 736 orders in 1426 days or .518 7E7s/787s ordered per day.
  • 787: First Order and ATO to Date: 680 orders in 1017 days or .669 787s ordered per day.
  • A350XWB: First Order to Date: 364 orders in 248 days or 1.47 A350XWBs ordered per day.
  • A350XWB: ATO to Date: 364 orders in 451 days or .807 A350XWBs ordered per day.


The 787 is also the fourth best-selling widebody plane, behind the 747, 767 and 777 (in order).

[Edited 2007-11-11 16:36:56]
 
klkla
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:27 am

Your comparison as stated is flawed. One would have to compare sales of the A350 since it was first offered for sale. The A350AWB is till an A350 after all, despite the numerous major revisions. The fact that new contracts had to be signed for the current iteration reflects Airbus managements major blunder at determing market conditions after they realized their plane did not stand up to the REAL fastest selling WB in Aviation history.
 
JRadier
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:29 am

Quoting Klkla (Reply 2):
The A350AWB is till an A350 after all, despite the numerous major revisions.

If it is the same aircraft, why should new contracts be signed? Looks like it is pretty different after all.
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keesje
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:30 am

I think the numbers made by Future captain stick.

787. 736 firm orders in 1295 days. 1 day, 18 hours, 12 minutes, 58 seconds per plane.
A350. 286 firm orders in 343 days. 1 day, 4 hours, 46 minutes, 33 seconds per plane.


787: 0.568 planes per day.
A350: 0.833 planes per day.

it could be we have a new "Fastest Selling Widebody in Aviation History."

I think those marketing folks looking at thier Blackberry's / E61's

have to get out of that Dubai hotel bar &

prepare something for tomorrow..  rotfl 
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futurecaptain
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:38 am

We can't even agree on the number of days they've been on offer, how will we agree on anything?

[Edited 2007-11-11 16:42:39]
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col
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:39 am

I just wish they could both bring them into service as efficiently as they sell them!!! The real race should be to be on time!
 
sandrozrh
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:42 am

Quoting Klkla (Reply 2):
The fact that new contracts had to be signed for the current iteration reflects Airbus managements major blunder at determing market conditions after they realized their plane did not stand up to the REAL fastest selling WB in Aviation history.

 redflag 

Sour grapes. The original A350 and the A350XWB are two totally different planes. While the old A350 was some sort of an A330 Advanced, the A350XWB is a new concept that is indeed a lot better suited to compete with the 787, and the way it sells just proves that. There are still old A350 customers who have not ordered the XWB yet, which just goes to show again that they're not the same planes. So yes, the A350XWB is indeed the fastest selling WB to date, at least for now. Wether you like it or not is up to you.
 
baroque
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:30 am

Good grief Charlie Brown. Pass me my security blanket, made out of woven carbon fibres of course. No, not the impregnated one, YUK!

That is amazing. Who knows what is going to happen next. The 350 is still a paper airplane and the 787 defies identification at present. Neither paper nor real it seems.  Wow!
 
dw747400
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:39 am

"Over this arbitrary period of time this product sold more than this competing product."

The fact is there are too many variables here to find a comparison that is going to be meaningful to most people. Between the different markets, different launch dates, different economic conditions, etc, this is all but pointless.
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MD-90
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:54 am

Take out just two customers and the A350XWB's numbers plunge dramatically. I think the broad spectrum of orders for the 787 is more impressive. And of course, we all just know that AA and Delta are good for 100 787s each, right?  Wink

Sorry, I don't think this thread was worth creating, but it does seem like the A350XWB is now the "fastest selling widebody in history."
 
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Stitch
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 4:58 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 14):
I think the above makes for an interesting and potentially valid piece of data.

It's statistics. As such, you can tweak the numbers to get the desired result.

Some want the 7E7 included because the 787 shares a lot in common with it. Yet they don't want the A350 included on the grounds that the A350XWB is "all new" even though the only thing "new" about it is an uglier nose, 5" extra cabin width, a jump in MEW and MTOW, and a subsequent jump in thrust needed to get that MEW and MTOW into the air.

Go back to the original A350 ATO, and the numbers invert in the 787's favor. But then that's not "fair" because the A350's sales no longer count. Well, they no longer count in this one instance, since if they didn't count, period, Airbus is carrying a number of "phantom" orders for the original A350 on their books.

I've shown the 787 has sold more.

I've shown the A350XWB has sold more.

Pick the one you like best.  Smile
 
bringiton
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 5:02 am

This topic is very amusing , i wouldnt have thought that a person woud calculate it right down to per day basis , i guess the more appropriate way (if one exists) would be to count orders to EIS , or orders to First flight etc etc , proper milestones that have a significant meaning . Regardless of all this nonsence the A350 and 787 happen to be both GAME CHANGING families and their popularity with airlines only indicative of their quality .
 
NWA742
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 5:04 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 14):
I think the above makes for an interesting and potentially valid piece of data.



Maybe by the time production stops on each - until then those numbers can change any minute, and are completely irrelevant at this point in time.




-NWA742

[Edited 2007-11-11 21:06:15]
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hloutweg
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 5:11 am

Quoting SandroZRH (Reply 7):
There are still old A350 customers who have not ordered the XWB yet, which just goes to show again that they're not the same planes. So yes, the A350XWB is indeed the fastest selling WB to date, at least for now. Wether you like it or not is up to you.

I agree. The A350XWB is the fastest selling aircraft to date. No other aircraft has accumulated the number of signings that the XWB has. Nor the 787, nor the original A350. However, we could point out that negotiations several of the gained orders began much earlier, and were somehow tied up, way earlier than the A350XWB was even presented.

Notwithstanding, that the A350, and the A350XWB are two very different planes, and yes they were so that they had to redraw the contracts for the customers of this plane.

We might also point out that the rate at which these orders were signed was encouraged by spooling the orders together by the course of events and not intentionally. This rate should remain to have the A350XWB keep the title of "fastest selling aircraft", but it all depends of the speed at which negotiations gather new customers. If the rate of sales were to diminish, the rate of sales for this aircraft in the long term might be lower.

Think about this. If Emirates had placed their order at the Paris Air Show, instead of today, the rate of sales of the XWB would have been much better. 300+ planes within a year though, is something that the 787 has never done despite being such a promising aircraft. The key here is, I think, the orders were won to airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways which place such huge orders in such a small time frame compared to 5, 10, 25 which are more common numbers for widebody orders.
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columba
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 12:41 pm

That is so funny if it would be the other way around most Boeing fans would use the same arguments as the Airbus folks here and the Airbus crowd would use similar arguments as the Boeing people.
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Analog
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Mon Nov 12, 2007 10:27 pm

Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 5):
We can't even agree on the number of days they've been on offer, how will we agree on anything?

If the A350 and A350XWB are different aircraft, somebody should tell Airbus.

Airbus' recent press release is titled "Emirates Airline buys 70 Airbus A350s and 11 additional A380s", the specifications page calls the versions of the A350 the "A350-800 - A350-900 - A350-1000" and their "Summary of Orders and Deliveries" flash app lists the "A330/A340/A350" as a group.
 
SCAT15F
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:18 pm

You have to count from the original A350 proposal, because at a minimum, it at least prepped potential customers for the XWB and helped some to hold off on ordering the 787, also some customers converted orders as well. So I would say it is not the fastest selling widebody.
You have to take the A350 program as a whole, not the "latest development", which is exactly what the XWB is.
 
Analog
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:33 pm



Quoting SCAT15F (Reply 17):
You have to take the A350 program as a whole, not the "latest development", which is exactly what the XWB is.

If you do count the A350XWB as a different aircraft, one has to realize that a large percentage of the orders caused a proportional loss in orders for another program (the A350), and that the A350 was a failed program.

Obviously this whole argument is a bit silly. A more meaningful number would be the number of orders before first delivery, certification, etc.
 
futurecaptain
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Tue Nov 13, 2007 6:36 pm



Quoting Analog (Reply 18):
A more meaningful number would be the number of orders before first delivery, certification, etc.

More meaningful? It's just another way to make the Airbus look good.

A 2+ year time from being built to delivery would skew the numbers in the A380's favor I think.
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Analog
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Tue Nov 13, 2007 7:16 pm



Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 19):
More meaningful? It's just another way to make the Airbus look good.

A 2+ year time from being built to delivery would skew the numbers in the A380's favor I think.

Good point. I was not necessarily thinking about a specific point like first delivery, but the idea of picking some meaningful milestone on the way to service.
 
futurecaptain
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Tue Nov 13, 2007 9:45 pm



Quoting Hloutweg (Reply 14):
it all depends of the speed at which negotiations gather new customers.

True.

787: 50+ different customers
A350: 20 different customers


It seems alot of customers are spoken for already.
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norcal
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Wed Nov 14, 2007 12:22 pm

Actually any way you look at it the 787 is still faster, even if you only want to start the clock with the A350 version 6.0 (or whatever version we are on now). To date Airbus has 276 firm orders for the A350 when they "officially" offered it for sale in July of 2006.

Boeing has 288 firm 787 orders for 2007 alone (through November 6) and a total of 368 since July of 2006. The math just doesn't add up to the A350 being the fastest selling widebody ever.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Wed Nov 14, 2007 1:21 pm



Quoting Hloutweg (Reply 14):
The A350XWB is the fastest selling aircraft to date. No other aircraft has accumulated the number of signings that the XWB has. Nor the 787, nor the original A350.

Perhaps ironically, Boeing has sold more 787s since the ATO for the A350XWB then the A350XWB has.

Quoting Analog (Reply 18):
Obviously this whole argument is a bit silly. A more meaningful number would be the number of orders before first delivery, certification, etc.

The A350XWB might yet win that contest, since it still has many years to go before it reaches those milestones. I was of the opinion right after the EK announcement that the A350 would easily score 500 sales by first flight, but the A350 went from 300 to 400 sales and commitments in that time alone.
 
hloutweg
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RE: A350XWB: Fastest Selling WB In Aviation Histor

Wed Nov 14, 2007 2:41 pm



Quoting Futurecaptain (Reply 21):
True.

787: 50+ different customers
A350: 20 different customers

Ha, ha. How many customers Boeing gathered through the fist 11 months of offering? Can you find that out? 19 Between April 2004 and April 2005, that's expanding the Chinese order which is in fact a one customer order turned into six.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Perhaps ironically, Boeing has sold more 787s since the ATO for the A350XWB then the A350XWB has.

It certainly is ironic. That's why we talk about the density of units in a given period. That can work any manufacturer depending of what they choose to compare, but comparing the number of of sales in a 12 month time-frame from official launch, the 787 sold 336 units including options and purchase rights. That's between April '04 and April '05. Pretty similar.

As I said, though, we'll see if Airbus can keep up the rate of sales at the same or improved pace since the A350XWB has always had a competitor in the composite plane market and the record rate of sales was encouraged by the spool of translating contracts from the old A350 to the new A350XWB.
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