|Quoting Jwenting (Reply 1):|
The A350 was a disaster because there was no market for it
The original A350 was a head-on competitor to the 787 and a perfect replacement for the highly successful A330, 2 planes which have sold hundred of copies this year alone, yet you come to tell us there was no market for it???
|Quoting Jwenting (Reply 1):|
An upgraded 777 would fit into the replacement market for old 777s and A340s that's going to open in a few years (probably).
A 777NG will be in the same market segment as the A350XWB, but contrary to the Airbus, the 777NG will not be all new and thus likely conquer the smallest of the 2 market shares. In short, it will be caught in very much the same position as the original A350 was vs the all new 787. Interesting to see if Boeing can live with economics which ultimately were unacceptable to Airbus and their original A350 and made them to ditch the A350 and go for the all new A350XWB.
As to the question of this thread itself:
I think Boeing did not expect Airbus to commit to what has now become the A350XWB but rather stick to their original A350, and as such they expected to be able to keep their 777 as it is for at least 2 decades more, yet because of Airbus last minute course reversal, they now have a relatively imminent problem in the upper segment of their product offering: the 748i is only just launched and already dead on arrival as it is caught in between the A350-1000 and the A380-800, the 77W will be wiped away by the A350-1000 between now and 5 years (on the sales front) and the 772(ER) has had its best days also against the A350.
In short, every Boeing product above the 787-9 is in need of a serious redo if they want to stay of any significance in this segment on the long term.
The 787 however is a bit too small to be used as platform for a replacement for all the above Boeing models which are on the way out, except maybe for the 772ER, yet IF
Boeing decides to go ahead and launch the 787-10 (as replacement for the smaller 777s) they effectively give up their long lasting stronghold of all planes bigger than that for a very long time, since I just can't see them launch an all new Y3 before Y1.
An updated 777 and the associated much smaller market share associated with it (30%) might then be all that is possible for Boeing between 5 and 15 years from now in the segment above the 787-10.
My bet is that Boeing will:
-) launch the 787-10 as an improved version of what they first had in mind (so not a simple stretch) to protect the low end of the upper market segment which they unexpectedly will have to hand over to Airbus.
-) update the 77W to the best of their abilities and hope it will succeed in holding on to 30% of the market share based on price and commonality (something which is questionable given the HUGE CASM improvements the A350 will come with).
-) wonder if they shouldn't have made the 787 a tad larger indeed to make it a more performant and capable all round WB platform, even if it would have meant forgetting all about the -3 from the start.