cragley
Posts: 390
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Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:53 am

With all the merger talks of late, and the rising price of Oil, which airlines will struggle or fail this year?

Do you think that LCC might start feeling the pinch a little more?


And on the flipside, which airlines will continue to grow and expand.


I'm thinking it's going to be a good year for 9W and CA.


Thoughts?
 
Osprey88
Posts: 268
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:07 am

Many of the 50 seat regional airlines, such as MQ, OO, XJ, XE, and YV, will start to struggle with the high oil prices and probably start showing less and less profit.
"Reading departure signs in some big airports reminds me of the places I've been"
 
bok269
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:10 am

Mesa's got a tough year ahead. This could also be ExpressJet's make or break time.
"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
 
D328
Posts: 213
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:41 am

Southwest and Skybus are two I think are gonna feel it.
WN hedge's aren't as cheap in the past, maybe they'll finally feel what the legacy's are feeling. And Skybus, well I don't even know what to say about that airline.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:56 am

i think if US cant get this HP merger done they will be in a little bit of trouble
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
N104UA
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:20 pm

I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp and converting all the A320's to regular configuration
"Learn the rules, so you know how to break them properly." -H.H. The Dalai Lama
 
Iloveboeing
Posts: 339
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:38 pm



Quoting N104UA (Reply 5):
I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp and converting all the A320's to regular configuration

Yes, PLEASE get rid of TED! It was a horrible idea from the beginning, however, UA could do what DL did with Song, and apply it to some parts of the fleet (and hopefully, eventually the entire fleet).
 
MOBflyer
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:40 pm



Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 6):
and hopefully, eventually the entire fleet).

And completely get rid of first class on EVERY flight?????
 
ManchesterMAN
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:44 pm

I fear silverjet might have problems staying afloat this year. My company uses them quite a lot LTN-DXB and on the last 5 trips my colleagues have taken since the new year I've had loads reported at no more than 40 on board and as low as 20. Even more worrying is that this is popular time of year to visit DXB for both business and leisure. Add to this their well known financial issues and I think they will struggle. Hope I'm wrong though as they have a nice little operation, I just think the 757 would have suited them better.
Flown: A300,A319,A320,A321,A330,A340.A380,717,727,737,747,757,767,777,DC9,DC10,MD11,MD80,F100,F50,ERJ,E190,CRJ,BAe146,Da
 
rampart
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:49 pm



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
i think if US cant get this HP merger done they will be in a little bit of trouble

You mean, if HP can get this US merger done...

-Rampart
 
kochamLOT
Posts: 118
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 4:55 pm

I think we will see many of the smaller regionals begin to mold into the larger ones similar to skyways/skywest.
I dont realy know WHEN the legacy carriers will merge but i do believe it is only a question of when and it may not be this year.
If American Majors all had to merge with another major airline, here is how I think it would go...

1. American & Delta (similar fleets; boeings/md-80s; New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)

SA)">AA/DL would compete great with UAL/CO bar the MDs SA)">AA/DL would have to replace

2. United & Continental (also similar fleets, no md's, mostly boeings xcept ual 320/319, similar long hual fleets; Houston, Chicago, Newark, SF, ...)

3. SA)">NW/USair (airbus fleets, Northern hubs, Twin cities, Philly, Memphis....)

Airlines 1 and 2 would be the greatest competitors to each other as SA)">AA and SA)">CO have exceptional SA coverage. ALL airlines have connections to major EU hubs and work well with their alliance partners however I would think Star Alliance would be for airline #2 and probably one world for #1.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:00 pm



Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 6):
Yes, PLEASE get rid of TED! It was a horrible idea from the beginning, however, UA could do what DL did with Song, and apply it to some parts of the fleet (and hopefully, eventually the entire fleet).

No, UA can't do what Delta did. Exactly what does TED have to offer that United doesn't?

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):
1. American & Delta (similar fleets; boeings/md-80s; New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)

U see this as a good fit? Their routes will grossly overlap not to mention the sheere size of such a merger that probably won't bring ANY cost savings.
What gets measured gets done.
 
kochamLOT
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:12 pm



Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 11):
U see this as a good fit? Their routes will grossly overlap not to mention the sheere size of such a merger that probably won't bring ANY cost savings.

what ideas did you have for mergers within the US? I see your point about overlapping routes. My thought was that with similar routes (and obviously routes that the airlines continued seeing profitable) the merger would combine to FLY THOSe routes thus consolidating the competition and instead conpete with routes flown by UAL/CO.
Still, I like those pairings.
 
JJMNGR
Posts: 924
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:16 pm

VARIGLOG. The company is already be in the middle of a dispute and fight between Brazilian stake holders and Matlin Peterson Group....some B75F were arrested and thigs are not easy there....my bet is on their shoulders.
 
jetdude
Posts: 55
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:18 pm



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):

The merger is technically complete. It is one airline. Now, do they have contract issues? Yep, but so do many more including AA.

At this point in time US, running under two contracts for Pilots and two for FAs is actually handling it very well, keeping the operations seperate. Will it be easier to operate when all the contracts are settled? You bet, but the East Pilots need to do a lot of growing up.
 
Cyberflyer
Posts: 37
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:18 pm

Skybus is DOA. They won't make it past June. Take that to the bank. No pun intended.
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:19 pm



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 12):
what ideas did you have for mergers within the US?

Honestly, I don't want to see any for the next 2-3 years at least. Although I think the regional airline business needs a vast overhaul. Now, the issue with route overlap isn't simply scheduling and fleet usage. IT's the problem of possible monopolies in certain markets and if the Feds and local government will let it/want it to fly. As far as mergers happening now, I personally think it has a lot to do with trying to get things done under the current administration. Not saying the next won't let it happen. But the transition will cause a delay.
What gets measured gets done.
 
MEA-707
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:52 pm

So far mainly US based reactions
I agree that Skybus can fail, but want to add even Virgin America and Frontier.
In Europe, I worry about Volare, Sky-Europe and Vueling. The LCC market seems a bit saturated and their direct competitors like Wizzair seem to do better.
In India there are one or two carriers too many. GoAir might be the first one to go, and Air Deccan will only survive as vehicle for Kingfisher to start international flights.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
flyorski
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:07 pm



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 12):
what ideas did you have for mergers within the US? I see your point about overlapping routes. My thought was that with similar routes (and obviously routes that the airlines continued seeing profitable) the merger would combine to FLY THOSe routes thus consolidating the competition and instead conpete with routes flown by UAL/CO.
Still, I like those pairings.

I would imagine seeing a few mergers, though not necessarily based on fleet similarity.

I could see, DL and NW merging, they already seem to be being pushed together by AF. Maybe CO and AL merging as well, they have very similar fleets and the routes they fly hardly overlap at all. B6 might merge well with spirit or F9 or maybe both, they have similar fleets and no duel hubs. I think it would be interesting if Air Tran and Southwest merged (though I dont think it would happen).

I am sure that UA and AA would want to pair up with someone, get at least a piece of the pie, but I dont really see any good matches for either of them. I am also sure that US would want to partner up with someone, but I dont know whom.
"None are more hopelessly enslaved, than those who falsly believe they are free" -Goethe
 
FlyASAGuy2005
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 6:16 pm



Quoting Flyorski (Reply 18):
they already seem to be being pushed together by AF

I read today that they have officially endorsed the deal and would also move to help fund such a merger...
What gets measured gets done.
 
nycbjr
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:45 am

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:19 pm



Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 19):

Quoting Flyorski (Reply 18):
they already seem to be being pushed together by AF

I read today that they have officially endorsed the deal and would also move to help fund such a merger...

wow thats a wrinkle I never thought of.. and could be the tipping point to this happening and a positive (if still messy) outcome of any merger..

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/bus...s/2008/01/17/deltafrance_0117.html
 
rdwootty
Posts: 689
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 4:28 am

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:58 pm

My choice is FlyGlobespan who may fail in the high season leaving many passengers stranded.... They did not do themselves any favours last summer. We shall see what the booking patern is. their fares seem higher than the competition and as we all know price is the king
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 8:03 pm



Quoting Rampart (Reply 9):
You mean, if HP can get this US merger done...

true my bad

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):

so they would make a great airline because they have all Boeing fleets?

Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 11):
U see this as a good fit? Their routes will grossly overlap not to mention the sheere size of such a merger that probably won't bring ANY cost savings.

i'm pretty sure it is because of the all boeing fleets

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 12):
what ideas did you have for mergers within the US? I see your point about overlapping routes. My thought was that with similar routes (and obviously routes that the airlines continued seeing profitable) the merger would combine to FLY THOSe routes thus consolidating the competition and instead conpete with routes flown by UAL/CO.
Still, I like those pairings.

UA/CO
DL/UA
DL/NW
CO/NW
DL/B6
DL/AS
CO/AS
AA/AS
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
jetblueguy22
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 8:08 pm



Quoting D328 (Reply 3):
Southwest and Skybus are two I think are gonna feel it.

Southwest not as much as Skybus. I read in Airliners magazine that they feel really good about the upcoming year and think it will be a good one. Don't think so!

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp

Absolutely!

Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):
1. American & Delta (similar fleets; boeings/md-80s; New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Miami)

SA)">AA/DL would compete great with UAL/CO bar the MDs SA)">AA/DL would have to replace

2. United & Continental (also similar fleets, no md's, mostly boeings xcept ual 320/319, similar long hual fleets; Houston, Chicago, Newark, SF, ...)

3. SA)">NW/USair (airbus fleets, Northern hubs, Twin cities, Philly, Memphis....)

These are interesting combinations. I have yet to hear American and Delta or United and Continental. Now I could see NW and DL, or Co and DL but not AA and DL. UA and CO I really can't see. US and NW I don't really think so but who knows this is an interesting industry!
Blue
All of the opinions stated above are mine and do not represent Airliners.net or my employer unless otherwise stated.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 8:15 pm



Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 23):
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
I can see TED being scraped by UAL corp

Absolutely!

i didn't say that
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
mah584jr
Posts: 422
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 8:53 pm

As far as the US legacies go, I see NW having the toughest year of the lot.
 
NWAESC
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 8:56 pm



Quoting Mah584jr (Reply 25):
As far as the US legacies go, I see NW having the toughest year of the lot

What makes you think that?
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
User avatar
Ryan h
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:32 pm

Here in Australia, I can see Tiger Airways struggling on their domestic routes.

Many of their flights have been late and I can see an unfavourable reaction by the travelling public towards this.
South Australian Spotter www.ryanhothersall.net
 
staralliance38
Posts: 1112
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2008 11:09 pm

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:38 pm



Quoting KochamLOT (Reply 10):
2. United & Continental (also similar fleets, no md's, mostly boeings xcept ual 320/319, similar long hual fleets; Houston, Chicago, Newark, SF, ...)

3. SA)">NW/USair (airbus fleets, Northern hubs, Twin cities, Philly, Memphis....)

I don't think so. Why wouldn't airlines within alliances merge? NW--CO and UA--US?

Then again, if US and NW merge, I would have a lot of miles US-19,000 NW-22,000  Smile

But still, Star with star, Team with Team

And btw LCC will live strong! Sorry. I fly the flag

 airplane 
Roar, lion, roar
 
JetBlueAUS
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:41 pm

Skybus, really. I think Virgin America will do well.
Not all of us can be heroes, some of us can only stand on the sidewalk and clap as they go by.
 
staralliance38
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:47 pm



Quoting Rampart (Reply 9):
Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
i think if US cant get this HP merger done they will be in a little bit of trouble

You mean, if HP can get this US merger done...

US/HP merger is pretty much done, just paint the planes and done

Quoting Jetdude (Reply 14):
At this point in time US, running under two contracts for Pilots and two for FAs is actually handling it very well, keeping the operations seperate. Will it be easier to operate when all the contracts are settled? You bet, but the East Pilots need to do a lot of growing up.

I heard US is planning to get the employees out of the unions and make a house "US Airways" union. I'm all for that!

Proud 2 fly the Flag!!! Viva US Airways!
Roar, lion, roar
 
burnsie28
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:49 pm



Quoting Osprey88 (Reply 1):
Many of the 50 seat regional airlines, such as MQ, OO, XJ, XE, and YV, will start to struggle with the high oil prices and probably start showing less and less profit.

Airlines like OO and XJ don't have to worry much since they don't do their own operations they are guaranteed to make money from the major legacy carriers they fly for.

Frontier is already having issues that need to be resolved, Skybus, it was an interesting yet short lived concept.

Virgin America lost boatloads in their first 3 months. Its a tough call on them. Southwest will be seeing a slight pinch with increased costs in jetfuel.
 
ualcsr
Posts: 348
Joined: Sat May 27, 2006 12:53 pm

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Tue Jan 22, 2008 1:45 am

VH, if they're not already out of business, and lots of the ones already mentioned here.

Come back airline of the year----AZ.
 
Anetter123
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2007 12:46 pm

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:47 am



Quoting D328 (Reply 3):
Southwest and Skybus are two I think are gonna feel it.

Southwest isn't going anywhere. They are HUGE in the US, they've got a great route/fare structure on certain markets, they have VERY loyal customers and I swear their ticketing and customer service is by far the easiest I've ever encountered. Dial once, wait for the operator to finish welcoming you and next thing you know you've got an agent ready to take your call.


Regarding Skybus, they are going to make it BIG in Florida! ITs so expensive to fly anywhere in NC from FL, but now with Skybus that nightmare has been laid to rest given their incredible fares. I wish them well overall. They are too new, so its difficult to say if they will last or succeed this year - but most airlines that start never really make a profit until a few quarters later anyway.

Quoting Iloveboeing (Reply 6):
Yes, PLEASE get rid of TED!

I couldn't agree with you more! What in the world is the purpose of TED? It is the only LCC that charges an alarming $100 to make ticket changes? I state "alarming" because other LCC carriers charge just about this much for a ticket? I'd MUCH rather fly on an Embraer Jet of UA then one of these TED airbuses.

The one LCC carrier I think has the most potential for filling their seats is Spirit. However, this of course does not determine profitability especially if you got that seat for $9.00. However, they have lasted a few years, they continue to grow and feed FLL airport with good traffic and competition with AA. Spirit does have the advantage of capturing non US passenger traffic given its great deal of international flights. I'm not too crazy about their ULCC structure (having to pay to check bags, nothing free etc), but hey they have to make money somehow if they want to continue offering these astonishing low fares they do a good job of offering.

Regarding which LCC will struggle, my vote goes to Virgin America - simply because it only flys routes that all legacy carriers fly. Competition is fierce, the routes are already saturated, and given the sluggish US economy we are facing now I would not be surprised if it were to announce a pretty hefty quarter loss in the coming months. They will not dissapear, but it will certainly take time for them to make "any" kind of profit in my eyes. They need to expand and fly to cities with less competition (ie. MIA-LAX!!!...LOL).
 
ZWRampRat
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Joined: Fri Dec 07, 2007 9:47 am

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:49 am

I have my fingers crossed that YX does
 
NWASkyking
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Joined: Sun Jan 27, 2008 5:04 am

RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Sun Jan 27, 2008 10:48 pm

It may not be this year, but next year or the coming year will be tough on most LCC's. I think that most of the legacy's will do well, and continue to improve domestic travel, while adding more international routes. Hopefully skybus will be gone, and b6 will have lesser presence.
Safe
 
Super80DFW
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RE: Which Airlines Will Struggle/fail This Year?

Mon Jan 28, 2008 4:34 am



Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 11):
No, UA can't do what Delta did. Exactly what does TED have to offer that United doesn't?

TedTunes! Oh wait, that is called Audio Programming on other United flights. I guess nothing.
"Things change, friends leave, life doesn't stop for anybody." -- EAT'EM UP EAT'EM UP KSU!!

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