SXDFC
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Airlines That Will Probably Never Order Again

Fri Dec 12, 2008 9:54 pm

Hey Guys:

I have thought about this for some time, and I figured there are probably some airlines that will either never order another Airbus a/c or another Boeing a/c again. I figured I would make a small list of airlines that this probably applies to, I would like to know your own opinons as well as other airlines to be added.


Example:

Airbus

American Airlines

Continental Airlines

Boeing:

TAP Portugal

Easy Jet



I am sure there is more to add to this list..
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wn700driver
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 10:01 pm

I don't expect to see AA320's or US Airways 73Gs anytime soon, but I think it is foolish to say "never."
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MSPflyer
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 10:12 pm

I highly doubt Southwest will order an Airbus.
 
ikramerica
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 10:15 pm

I would never say never. CO could very well order the NG A320 if they fit their operation better than the 737RS. I don't see Airbus widebodies in CO's future, but as for AA, there very well might be. 1/2 of AA's fleet is non-Boeing product (since you can't count MD80s as Boeings when AA ordered them from MD years before).
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NWADC9
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 10:19 pm

I'm pretty sure Northwest won't be buying any planes anymore Big grin
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rampart
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 10:25 pm

Supposedly devout followers of one company have changed plans before. I think it's foolhardy to predict that any given airline will forever resist the tempation of choice.

Lufthansa was powerfully Boeing, a launch customer, then ardently Airbus, yet they've now gone and ordered 748s, too.

CO did have an order for A340s at one time before executive winds changed. Who's to say they won't change again?

Even in the midst of their one-model doctrine, WN has operated 2 different types before, 727 and 737. Rumor are that they still look at the 100-seat market, which would be a major change for them, but seems they've made a number of major shifts in doctrine.

And then the USAir Force ordering "Northrup"/EADS tankers! I know, still not resolved, but someone got as far as placing an order.

-Rampart
 
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Stitch
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 11:28 pm

I think "never" is too strong a word and too long of a timeframe.

A number of Airbus customers used to be very strong Boeing customers because, at the time, Boeing was better then the competition (McD, Lockheed, the Europeans prior to forming Airbus).

Airlines cannot afford to be sentimental when a real, viable and superior alternative is present. They will choose what makes the better economic case for them, all things being equal.
 
na
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Fri Dec 12, 2008 11:40 pm

With the exception of very specialized budget Airlines like Southwest whose whole business model relies on a single type I think that it is stupid for a large airline, especial international carriers with multipe types to rely on one manufacturer.
Therefore I would "never say never" in cases like you quote. What if in future one of the manufacturers indeed offers a far more superior product than the other in a certain class? Its not the case today, but with the large scale changes to be happening in the future that could happen.
 
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seabosdca
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:16 am

Two words: UA A320s.
 
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SOBHI51
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:29 am



Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 8):
Two words: UA A320s.

Aren't they doing very well with UA?I am really surprised to know that.
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Superfly
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:34 am

I know for sure that no airline will buy any more new McDonnell Douglas aircraft again.
I know for sure that LOT Polish Airlines will not order any more Ilyushin or Tupolev aircraft again. Same for Vietnam Airlines.
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cedars747
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:40 am



Quoting SXDFC (Thread starter):
Airlines That Will Probably Never Order--- Again

Never say never again  Wink

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BrianDromey
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:42 am



Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 9):
Aren't they doing very well with UA?I am really surprised to know that.

I think the point being made was that UA were very loyal Boeing customers. IIRC United has its roots as part of Boeing too. If UA could order Airbus anyone could, very soon there will be no more 737 at UA.

Brian.
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seabosdca
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:48 am



Quoting SOBHI51 (Reply 9):

Aren't they doing very well with UA?I am really surprised to know that.

My post referred to the shock of UA, once owned by Boeing, ordering them in the first place.

The UA A320 order was the shot heard round the world for Boeing. It shows that no planemaker can ever afford to take a carrier's business for granted.
 
brilondon
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 12:56 am

I don't believe that WS will ever order Airbus nor will WN. Aloha will not ever order any mainline aircraft. Highly doubtful AA will order Airbus same goes for CO and DL. All this is guessing and I am a horrible guesser.
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commavia
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:01 am



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
but as for AA, there very well might be. 1/2 of AA's fleet is non-Boeing product (since you can't count MD80s as Boeings when AA ordered them from MD years before).

True, although I think AA's actions today are fare more reflective of potential future actions than decisions made 20 years ago. True, half of AA's fleet are McDonnell Douglas MD80s, but today, in 2008, AA is actively replacing those MD80s with ... Boeing 737s.

I suppose anything is possible, but I certainly would say that the chances of AA ordering an Airbus product in the future - especially widebodies - is small. AA has already placed one of the largest orders to date for the 787, and I doubt they're done with that frame yet. AA has committed to the 787 in a big way, and I suspect that is going to be their widebody frame of the future - ultimately replacing their 767s and eventually also probably the 777s.

As for narrowbodies, AA is making a huge (70-frame) investment in NG 737s because they desperately want to get out from under the weight of the MD80's fuel inefficiency. That is a short- to mid-term solution, however, and within the next 10-20 years, AA will likely move to the next-generation narrowbody platform that is being discussed by Boeing and Airbus. This may represent an opportunity/opening for Airbus, but even there, assuming Boeing can stay competitive on price, capability, efficiency and delivery schedule with Airbus in their next-generation narrowbody ("narrowbody 787") offering, I don't realistically see AA going Airbus.
 
Airportguy1971
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:54 am



Quoting Superfly (Reply 10):
I know for sure that no airline will buy any more new McDonnell Douglas aircraft again.

Don't tell Allegiant that. Every A/C they buy is new to them...  Wink
 
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Pohakuloa
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:47 am



Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Airlines cannot afford to be sentimental when a real, viable and superior alternative is present. They will choose what makes the better economic case for them, all things being equal.

Absolutely. The only point I can make is HA as they are the only ones I have seen for sure to comment on. HA used to be a MD/DC aircraft user for years. They went boeing 717 which is essentially an MD aircraft with a pretty badging on it. The 763's made sense because they were the right aircraft for the job at the right time. And now they have a huge A332/A350 order. Not too many people saw that one coming.
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RDUDDJI
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 5:22 am



Quoting NA (Reply 7):
With the exception of very specialized budget Airlines like Southwest whose whole business model relies on a single type I think that it is stupid for a large airline

Southwest is the largest domestic carrier in the US. I don't know what qualifies as big for you, but WN is pretty damn big...

]

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 12):
I think the point being made was that UA were very loyal Boeing customers. IIRC United has its roots as part of Boeing too. If UA could order Airbus anyone could, very soon there will be no more 737 at UA.

UA was the launch customer for both the 767 and 777. However, I believe now UA has one of the largest A320 fleets in the World. I think they're third IIRC. Truthfully, I really like UA's fleet makeup of A320's and Boeing W/B's. I never really liked their 733/735's.
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legacytravel
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 5:31 am

FL I feel will continuce to always be a Boeing carrier.


Mark in MKE
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ckfred
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 5:39 am

AA, CO, and DL all signed long-term agreements with Boeing back in the late 90s, giving them very good pricing terms, with the ability to get production slots on somewhat short notice.

Remember that Boeing was supposedly booked on 737 production for the next several years, yet AA is getting 70+ 737-800s over the next 2 years.

Until the agreements come close to expiration, don't expect any of these 3 carriers to look at Airbus for widebody or larger narrowbody aircraft.

Now, I could see AA ordering larger Embrear or Canadair jets to fill in the gap left by the retirement of the F100 fleet, but that's due to the fact that neither Boeing nor Airbus currently offer a plane in the 90-110 seat range that makes sense on short-haul routes.
 
sparky35805
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:09 am

United wanted an aircraft that would operate from Denver nonstop to any US destination.The 737-400 would not do this and Boeing would not upgrade the 737.The were selling all the 300s and 400s that they could build.The A320 was availible and could do the job so United bought them.Boeing after loosing this order,decided to build the 737NG.Had they built this airplane for delivery in the 1994-95 time period,United would not have bought the Airbus product.
Sparky
 
kochamLOT
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 6:38 am



Quoting Rampart (Reply 5):
Supposedly devout followers of one company have changed plans before. I think it's foolhardy to predict that any given airline will forever resist the tempation of choice.

We could speculate forever ...but its pointless. Airlines dont always stay the same. Neither do their fleets.
 
Boeing6600
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:21 am

AS "proudly all Boeing"
 
LONGisland89
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:26 am

Airlines that will probably never order again = TWA, Tower Air, oh and People Express...sorry I couldn't resist.
 
LASoctoberB6
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:37 am



Quoting Sparky35805 (Reply 22):
United wanted an aircraft that would operate from Denver nonstop to any US destination.The 737-400 would not do this and Boeing would not upgrade the 737.The were selling all the 300s and 400s that they could build.The A320 was availible and could do the job so United bought them.Boeing after loosing this order,decided to build the 737NG.Had they built this airplane for delivery in the 1994-95 time period,United would not have bought the Airbus product.

Not to discredit you or anything, but do you have a source for that? I would like to read up on that..
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iad51fl
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:54 am

SAS will never order the Q400 due to the maintenance issues they had and all the negative publicity with the self retracting nose gear.

Chris
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kappel
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 8:52 am



Quoting Rampart (Reply 5):
Supposedly devout followers of one company have changed plans before. I think it's foolhardy to predict that any given airline will forever resist the tempation of choice.

 checkmark 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Airlines cannot afford to be sentimental when a real, viable and superior alternative is present. They will choose what makes the better economic case for them, all things being equal.

 checkmark  Indeed, I think the point made regarding the UA A320 order is the most pointed example of this fact.

Quoting NA (Reply 7):
With the exception of very specialized budget Airlines like Southwest whose whole business model relies on a single type

I believe that even an airline like WN cannot afford to not even look at a competing product if it offers a significant advantage over Boeing's product. They won't order a320's, but who knows with the next gen. Granted, it is very far fetched in WN's case as the next gen 737 will most likely be designed with a lot of WN input, but for operators that are a bit smaller like AS or FL, it is a possibility. AS' "proudly all Boeing" is nothing more than a marketing tool IMHO.

Quoting IAD51FL (Reply 26):
SAS will never order the Q400 due to the maintenance issues they had and all the negative publicity with the self retracting nose gear.

SAS DID order new Q400's along with their CRJ 900's!  Big grin
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flyingchoirboy
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:14 am



Quoting LASOctoberB6 (Reply 25):

Quoting Sparky35805 (Reply 22):
United wanted an aircraft that would operate from Denver nonstop to any US destination.The 737-400 would not do this and Boeing would not upgrade the 737.The were selling all the 300s and 400s that they could build.The A320 was availible and could do the job so United bought them.Boeing after loosing this order,decided to build the 737NG.Had they built this airplane for delivery in the 1994-95 time period,United would not have bought the Airbus product.

Not to discredit you or anything, but do you have a source for that? I would like to read up on that..

I don't have any specific source, but this is one of those 'common knowledge among anetters' things. However, IMHO, United got an amazing aircraft in the A320, and Boeing still produced a great plane with the 737NG.
 
Doona
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 9:45 am



Quoting IAD51FL (Reply 26):
SAS will never order the Q400 due to the maintenance issues they had and all the negative publicity with the self retracting nose gear.



Quoting Kappel (Reply 27):
SAS DID order new Q400's along with their CRJ 900's!

Yup, though the new Q400s are destined for members of the SAS Group, not SAS itself.  smile 

Cheers
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bassbonebobo
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 11:57 am



Quoting Kappel (Reply 27):
but for operators that are a bit smaller like AS or FL, it is a possibility. AS' "proudly all Boeing" is nothing more than a marketing tool IMHO.

Yes "Proudly All Boeing" is just a marketing tool. But, when you are an airline based in Seattle, have the most movements of any airline at Seatac (when including QX), and rely heavily on the greater Seattle area for traffic it turns out to be one hell of a marketing tool. What better than having a fleet comprised entirely of a type that was designed and built in your home town. The day AS orders any Airbus aircraft you can all start your stop watches. It will proceed the announcement that they are ceasing all operations by about 6 months.
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777law
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:08 pm

Perhaps a statement of the obvious, but I think it will be a very long time before any US airline orders Illuyshin, Antonov or Tupolov aircraft.
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wn700driver
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:33 pm



Quote:
Perhaps a statement of the obvious, but I think it will be a very long time before any US airline orders Illuyshin, Antonov or Tupolov aircraft.

I'm sure US would. I mean, if we can do all sorts of brilliant things like charging for Sodas, than I'm sure the sky's the limit for 'Airways. Just offer a good enough deal.
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kappel
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 1:39 pm



Quoting 777law (Reply 31):
Perhaps a statement of the obvious, but I think it will be a very long time before any US airline orders Illuyshin, Antonov or Tupolov aircraft.

Did any US airline ever order from these manufacturers directly?

Quoting Bassbonebobo (Reply 30):
What better than having a fleet comprised entirely of a type that was designed and built in your home town.

I don't think AS will buy Boeing just because they are assembelled in Seattle. It didn't stop them from buying MD's for example. Besides, isn't AS hometown Anchorage?  Wink
(Yes I know they are based in SEA)
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directorguy
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:05 pm

Airlines tend to balance their fleet with different a/c types. Look at EK-they placed a HUGE Airbus order (58 A380s, something like a 100 A350s) but their 777s are still going strong. Remains to be seen if they'll ever order the 747-8 though...
 
af773atmsp
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:11 pm

SY probably won't order Airbus in the near future. But I've always hoped.
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apodino
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:24 pm

I would go out on a limb and say that Mesa, Skywest, Republic, Air Wisconsin, Comair, and ASA will not be ordering any Boeing or Airbus products for a while.

Actually correct that, Mesa looks like they may have to be the next independence air.
 
A333TS
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:25 pm

I can see DL ordering Airbus in the future depending how they will like the performances of Airbuses that they get from NW. If DL will feel that Airbus is a good option for particular routes, who know what will happen.

The question I have is weather AC will order a wide body Airbus again? I know that they like A330 but haven’t placed the order for any A350’s, or new 330’s

I’ve heard rumors that TS wasn’t happy with their Boeing fleet, but Airbus is not manufacturing anything that can work for them (up to 250 people in very cramped configuration and super small club class  crowded  Wink. We shall wait and see.

A333TS
 
United1
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 3:31 pm



Quoting Flyingchoirboy (Reply 28):
Quoting LASOctoberB6 (Reply 25):

Quoting Sparky35805 (Reply 22):
United wanted an aircraft that would operate from Denver nonstop to any US destination.The 737-400 would not do this and Boeing would not upgrade the 737.The were selling all the 300s and 400s that they could build.The A320 was availible and could do the job so United bought them.Boeing after loosing this order,decided to build the 737NG.Had they built this airplane for delivery in the 1994-95 time period,United would not have bought the Airbus product.

Not to discredit you or anything, but do you have a source for that? I would like to read up on that..


I don't have any specific source, but this is one of those 'common knowledge among anetters' things.

I read that in some book some where so its a little more then just Anet lore.. Smile

I doubt if loosing the UA order was the only impetus for Boeing to build the 737NG but it was certainly one of them.
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DUALRATED
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:08 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
I would never say never. CO could very well order the NG A320 if they fit their operation better than the 737RS. I don't see Airbus widebodies in CO's future, but as for AA, there very well might be. 1/2 of AA's fleet is non-Boeing product (since you can't count MD80s as Boeings when AA ordered them from MD years before).

Not many Airbus fans at AA, I can tell you that my Friends at AMR have said they prefer an aircraft where the vertical tail fin does not snap off when applying rudder pressure. And a mfg that does not blame the pilot when the tail falls off.

CO will be Boeing for the foreseeable future period.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 12):
very soon there will be no more 737 at UA.

Very soon there may not be a UA!

Quoting Kappel (Reply 27):
if it offers a significant advantage over Boeing's product.

Thats true, if such a thing were ever to exist.


And to add to the list,

Iran Air will never again buy Boeing.

LY will never buy Airbus.....no matter how hard they try!
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777STL
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Sat Dec 13, 2008 4:23 pm



Quoting Directorguy (Reply 34):
Airlines tend to balance their fleet with different a/c types. Look at EK-they placed a HUGE Airbus order (58 A380s, something like a 100 A350s) but their 777s are still going strong. Remains to be seen if they'll ever order the 747-8 though...

Well, if you want to get technical, EK has already ordered the 747-8.  Wink
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