CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Busy..

Mon Jul 12, 2010 1:29 pm

Im talking about ex India and Asia to the States. With some luck i managed to get an EK flight from BLR-SFO (im supposed to be going to LAX) for this thur about a month ago. Unfortunetly, one of my final exams got postponed from last week to the day i was supposed to leave and im having a tough time even changing it to the next day or within the next two days. Same thing happened to me on every other airline when i tried to book my trip about a month ago. What gives? I thought with the recession people would be traveling less...and fare are up almost 25% over last year during the same period. Also it doesnt help that EK's long hauls to the west coast are weight restricted  .
 
shamrock321
Posts: 581
Joined: Sat May 03, 2008 7:27 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:17 pm

Reduced capacity perhaps? Before supply out did demand but now its the opposite.
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:21 pm

Quoting shamrock321 (Reply 1):

EK hasnt reduced any of their flights to either LAX or SFO...or where i am flying from in India (BLR). Same with all the other airlines i checked out. In fact, Dragon Air just went daily from BLR to HKG again. I would have flown CX, but im loyal to EK (cause of miles) and it gets me pretty quick to LAX.
 
DLPMMM
Posts: 2128
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:34 am

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:27 pm

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 2):

The problem is that you are using last summer as your point of comparison. Last summer was not normal.

Last summer was terrible for the airlines. Loads were very low as were the prices.

This summer is much more normal.

[Edited 2010-07-12 07:27:55]
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:52 pm

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 3):

The problem is that you are using last summer as your point of comparison. Last summer was not normal.

Last summer was terrible for the airlines. Loads were very low as were the prices.

This summer is much more normal.

Maybe to me this summer just seems much more unusual because for the past few years ive enjoyed low prices and available seats. Has capacity gone down overall or have prices just risen? It seems its quite tough to get a seat going anywhere in the US from Asia for a decent price or within short notice.
 
LAXintl
Posts: 20183
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:08 pm

Per IATA this year is hardly unusually busy.
For the last month of data available(May) global traffic is up 4.8% from May 2009, and on a year to date basis only up 1.2% from 2009.

We still have lots of ground to make up to pre-2008 traffic levels. What you might be seeing is the overall industry reduction in capacity which maybe has finally allowed airlines some pricing power.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:19 pm

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 5):

For the last month of data available(May) global traffic is up 4.8% from May 2009, and on a year to date basis only up 1.2% from 2009.

We still have lots of ground to make up to pre-2008 traffic levels. What you might be seeing is the overall industry reduction in capacity which maybe has finally allowed airlines some pricing power.

thats probably what im seeing. Im just frustrated at the inability to get a decent ticket from India to the US these days. At this rate, EK really needs a double daily to SFO and LAX.
 
LAXintl
Posts: 20183
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:30 pm

You realize that what you might consider a "decent ticket" was probably a unrealistic ticket price?

Hopefully as an industry airlines will be able to eek out profits finally this year, and be able to manage capacity and fare equilibrium to a better degree going forward.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
DLPMMM
Posts: 2128
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:34 am

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 3:32 pm

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 6):
thats probably what im seeing. Im just frustrated at the inability to get a decent ticket from India to the US these days. At this rate, EK really needs a double daily to SFO and LAX.

There is nothing regulatory stopping EK from flying double daily to any USA airports. The USA and UAE have an open skies agreement.

What is stopping EK from flying double daily to SFO/LAX is lack of demand.

Airlines generally don't sell cheap economy seats a few days before departure. The last 2 years were an anomaly. Don't expect EK to boost capacity and lose money in order to provide you with cheap seats at the last minute.

I would suggest that you try priceline or one of the other ticket auction sites or a consolidator if you want cheap economy seats, but you will probably not get your FF miles.
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 5:52 pm

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 8):


Airlines generally don't sell cheap economy seats a few days before departure. The last 2 years were an anomaly. Don't expect EK to boost capacity and lose money in order to provide you with cheap seats at the last minute.

i dont mind not getting a cheap seat at the last minute and i would gladly pair more to fly EK over the competitors because i enjoy the service. It wasnt just EK that hiked the prices this summer though; every airline i tried was pretty expensive in economy, even through the travel agent or on the net...almost $2000 or over for a economy seat. CX, even with 3 flights a day into LAX, was no cheaper and in fact a bit more than EK.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 8):

What is stopping EK from flying double daily to SFO/LAX is lack of demand.

lack of demand? Have you seen the loads from DXB to the west coast?? The planes are going full everyday...if there wasnt demand, then i would be able to change my flight quite easily and get a seat the next day.
 
Viscount724
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Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:32 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 5:57 pm

Traffic on many routes is up significantly this year, as are fares, reflecting stronger demand combined with capacity cutbacks in some markets. AC recently announced that their June traffic was up almost 16% systemwide, with an increase of over 33% on their transpacific routes to/from Asia compared to the same month last year..
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Mon Jul 12, 2010 6:42 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 10):
Traffic on many routes is up significantly this year, as are fares, reflecting stronger demand combined with capacity cutbacks in some markets. AC recently announced that their June traffic was up almost 16% systemwide, with an increase of over 33% on their transpacific routes to/from Asia compared to the same month last year..

im glad because its a good sign that the economy is bouncing back, but at the same time, i want to go home ASAP. Hopefully i can leave a couple days after my originally scheduled travel date. If Qatar decided to fly to LAX, would it drive down fares on EK or would they stay the same?
 
PI4EVER
Posts: 629
Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 10:29 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Tue Jul 13, 2010 10:49 pm

caliatenza:
You began this debate back in May when you were attempting to book your flight from BLR-LAX. Many of us provided you factual fare information to your inquiry that you found EK fares to be expensive this year. Several posters provided you reasonable explanations why fares were higher this year than last. It should have been no surprise to you that EK would have limited availablility and higher fares for a last minute change to a reservation you made just a month or so ago. I respect your decision to stay with EK to build loyalty mileage, but it may come with a price disadvantage simply due to demand. A good example from my own personal experience. Last May I flew to LHR on DL with a Y ticket cost of less than $500. This year, the same dates and flight schedule cost more than $900 booked 50+ days in advance. Within one week of travel the Y fare had increased to almost $2000 and within 7 days prior to departure the flight was completely sold out all classes. I could complain and whine all day about DL fares this year, but regardless the demand was there and DL accepted the money. You can't fault EK for pricing their product to the demand and no doubt the market is holding to higher fares than experienced in 2009.
I would assume on July 13 you're on your way to SFO or LAX having paid additional money due to your last minute change. As pointed out by other posters, you can't blame EK or any other airline for not offering you an option for a cheaper fare you likely wouldn't buy because you wanted mileage accrual on EK. Pay up and shut up.
Don't make any assumptions that if QR begins LAX or SFO service from DOH you'll find cheaper tickets on EK who'll match the new pricing. QR will not give away their product, beyond a "new service promotion" price incentive for a limited time. Economy rebounding or not, airlines will price to what the market will bear over an extended period of time, and in peak summer for travel to Europe and the USA, fares will not be "cheap."
I recently told a client to stop badgering me (after 11 telephone calls for price quotes) for a "cheap" ticket to Paris in August. Question. Do you want to go to Paris in August? In your case LAX in July? Then buy what EVERYONE IS PRiCING AS A REASONABLE FARE FOR DEMAND. If you wait until 5 days before departure this year, you'll like pay a lot MORE or NOT GO AT ALL! Don't book a cruise from Barcelona or Amsterdam thinking you're going to hold out for a rock bottom ticket "when they're desparate to fill a seat". For whatever reason, those seats don't exist this year.
I do hope you worked out your last minute changes, and you're basking in the warm sunshine of Southern California. Don't make any assumptions for the rest of 2010, and don't even think you'll get back to those $1500 tickets from BLR in 2011. Budget wisely.
Thomas
watch what you want. you may get it.
 
CaliAtenza
Posts: 1626
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:43 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:53 am

Quoting PI4EVER (Reply 12):

You began this debate back in May when you were attempting to book your flight from BLR-LAX. Many of us provided you factual fare information to your inquiry that you found EK fares to be expensive this year. Several posters provided you reasonable explanations why fares were higher this year than last. It should have been no surprise to you that EK would have limited availablility and higher fares for a last minute change to a reservation you made just a month or so ago. I respect your decision to stay with EK to build loyalty mileage, but it may come with a price disadvantage simply due to demand. A good example from my own personal experience. Last May I flew to LHR on DL with a Y ticket cost of less than $500. This year, the same dates and flight schedule cost more than $900 booked 50+ days in advance. Within one week of travel the Y fare had increased to almost $2000 and within 7 days prior to departure the flight was completely sold out all classes. I could complain and whine all day about DL fares this year, but regardless the demand was there and DL accepted the money. You can't fault EK for pricing their product to the demand and no doubt the market is holding to higher fares than experienced in 2009.
I would assume on July 13 you're on your way to SFO or LAX having paid additional money due to your last minute change. As pointed out by other posters, you can't blame EK or any other airline for not offering you an option for a cheaper fare you likely wouldn't buy because you wanted mileage accrual on EK. Pay up and shut up.
Don't make any assumptions that if QR begins LAX or SFO service from DOH you'll find cheaper tickets on EK who'll match the new pricing. QR will not give away their product, beyond a "new service promotion" price incentive for a limited time. Economy rebounding or not, airlines will price to what the market will bear over an extended period of time, and in peak summer for travel to Europe and the USA, fares will not be "cheap."
I recently told a client to stop badgering me (after 11 telephone calls for price quotes) for a "cheap" ticket to Paris in August. Question. Do you want to go to Paris in August? In your case LAX in July? Then buy what EVERYONE IS PRiCING AS A REASONABLE FARE FOR DEMAND. If you wait until 5 days before departure this year, you'll like pay a lot MORE or NOT GO AT ALL! Don't book a cruise from Barcelona or Amsterdam thinking you're going to hold out for a rock bottom ticket "when they're desparate to fill a seat". For whatever reason, those seats don't exist this year.
I do hope you worked out your last minute changes, and you're basking in the warm sunshine of Southern California. Don't make any assumptions for the rest of 2010, and don't even think you'll get back to those $1500 tickets from BLR in 2011. Budget wisely.

I appreciate your reply to my post  . It was really long too  . Well, by a stroke of luck or whatever it was, my TA managed to get BLR-LAX on EK leaving tommorow night from BLR. Indeed i could have left last night on CX but i chose not to. Is it so bad that people want to save a bit of money in these hard times? And you dont have to be rude to those travelers who may want to save money...hell everyone wants to.

Anyways i had to pay INR 19500 extra, including the change fee...which actually worked out a lot cheaper than what my friends/classmates had to pay (upto 40,000 extra in one case). So no, im not complaining, but eventually EK will have to increase capacity ex India to LA and SFO.
 
PI4EVER
Posts: 629
Joined: Wed May 06, 2009 10:29 pm

RE: This Summer's Travel Season Seems Unusually Bu

Fri Jul 16, 2010 1:44 pm

My apologies for a long winded reply. No rudeness or offense intended. I am happy to see you accomplished your change to now fly to LAX. I wish you a pleasant trip, and a safe and fun summer in California.
Thomas
watch what you want. you may get it.

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