c5load
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Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:07 am

A thread discusses the airlines that appeared and disappeared during the 2000s. What about the future? Will we see two of the biggest airlines head to head by 2020? Will WN try and grab B6 by then? Will AA grab US and form the top three: United, Delta, and American? Thoughts?
"But this airplane has 4 engines, it's an entirely different kind of flying! Altogether"
 
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fxramper
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:09 am

Sooner than you think - 777BCF.   
 
Burkhard
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:23 am

Big question is: Can the economic powers of the past ( Europe and US ) keep their (barely legal) foreign ownership limitations, or will we have 3 airlines world wide in 2020: Air China, Emirates and Lufthansa.
 
SCL767
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:44 am

Quoting c5load (Thread starter):
Will WN try and grab B6 by then? Will AA grab US and form the top three: United, Delta, and American? Thoughts?

WN already has AirTran! AA does not need US. IMHO, B6 will eventually join oneworld. B6 already operates into BOG and will expand into Central America via JFK, SJU and FLL. Also, B6 has expressed an interest in operating into BOG, BAQ, CUN, GEO, LIM, POS, PTY, SCL, SJO, UVF, etc. in a fashion which complements other oneworld carriers.
 
r2rho
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:41 pm

It would be nice if in the next ten years we could see some genuine liberalization in the airline market and the removal of outdated restrictions for cross-border operations and mergers - in other words, true Open Skies and not the watered-down version that we are given today. Coca-Cola and McDonald's can set up shop anywhere they want on the planet, but LH cannot fly PEK-HKG, nor can QF fly BOG-EZE. If ownership restrictions were relaxed, cross-border mergers would start to happen on the day after.
 
YXwatcherMKE
Posts: 382
Joined: Sat May 05, 2007 3:06 pm

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 1:18 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 4):
It would be nice if in the next ten years we could see some genuine liberalization in the airline market and the removal of outdated restrictions for cross-border operations and mergers - in other words, true Open Skies and not the watered-down version that we are given today. Coca-Cola and McDonald's can set up shop anywhere they want on the planet, but LH cannot fly PEK-HKG, nor can QF fly BOG-EZE. If ownership restrictions were relaxed, cross-border mergers would start to happen on the day after.

As much as many here would like to see a true "Open Skies" approach to airline operations don't count on it happening anytime soon. We have seen a major shift in the American Politic Structure in the past November 2010 Elections to a more conservative mind set, this will lead to a more of a protect what is ours view point. If a more Liberal airline market did happen the number of airlines would shrink and the ticket prices would rise way to much and we would see a big loss of passengers flying in the open skies. That's IMHO.
I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
 
SCL767
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 2:33 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 2):
Big question is: Can the economic powers of the past ( Europe and US ) keep their (barely legal) foreign ownership limitations, or will we have 3 airlines world wide in 2020: Air China, Emirates and Lufthansa.

South America has certainly made significant progress in this area. Twenty years ago, the airline industry in South America was dominated by inefficient state-owned airlines operating unprofitably with extremely low levels of accountability and transparency. Today, most of those carriers are history and the reality is that South America is now home to a couple of the world's most profitable airlines period! Lufthansa is be behind LATAM. Currently, Air China has seen its market capitalization surge to $20 billion, followed by Singapore Airlines with $14 billion and Cathay Pacific with $12 billion. China Southern has a market cap of $11 billion, as does LATAM, the Latin American airline currently being created from the merger of Chile's LAN Airlines and TAM Airlines of Brazil.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 3:25 pm

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 3):
AA does not need US.

Today..you are correct. USAIRways is going to need somebody or die.
In a business climate, its expand or die(sooner or later).
Me thinks by 2020 if I live that long, we are talking four or five...maybe six airlines in the USA.
Someone as know them today, wont be there. Its anyones guess who will fail or merge.

And never say never...NW at one time was filthy rich and EA was the number two carrier in the
world in boardings behind AeroFlot.
Pan Am to go away??.......you're joking!
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
macsog6
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 3:49 pm

Quoting r2rho (Reply 4):
If ownership restrictions were relaxed, cross-border mergers would start to happen on the day after.

I agree. The biggest obstacle to a true streamlining of this industry, ensuring the profitability of the carrier, is the out-dated ownership laws that go back to every country haivng to have a flag carrier. This becomes a very emotional issue to some who cannot bear to see their national airline go away.

But we need it.
Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
 
mffoda
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 4:18 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 2):
Big question is: Can the economic powers of the past ( Europe and US ) keep their (barely legal) foreign ownership limitations, or will we have 3 airlines world wide in 2020: Air China, Emirates and Lufthansa.

I would say the answer to your question is: Yes they can... Ever heard of the "The Civil Reserve Air Fleet" ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Reserve_Air_Fleet

Quote:

"To join Civil Reserve Air Fleet, carriers must maintain a minimum commitment of 30 percent of its Civil Reserve Air Fleet capable passenger fleet and 15 percent of its Civil Reserve Air Fleet capable cargo fleet. Aircraft committed must be U.S. registered."
harder than woodpecker lips...
 
planesmith
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:06 pm

I don't think this will ever happen - too many countries are xenophobic - perhaps things are getting easier in Europe and of course the UK has surrendered away most of its company assets to foreign interests, its utility companies are now almost exclusively foreign owned, many of its railways are foreign owned, most of its "big" name companies are foreign owned, Rolls-Royce and Bentley cars are German owned, etc., etc.

Americans however are far more reluctant to see anything owned by any other country's interests yet they are happy to see companies such as Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, Burger King etc., plant their open sores around the world whether they are welcome or not. I don't suppose LH would ever be allowed to purchase a carrier like US Air let alone AA!

The fifth-freedom battle has waged for years and we can doubt that we will ever see a BA or LH flight pick-up in NYC and drop passengers off in Hawaii let alone own a carrier that could do it. Look at the row that was caused when the Virgin franchise opened up in the USA...  
 
Charlienoble
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:28 pm

Quoting planesmith (Reply 10):
Americans however are far more reluctant to see anything owned by any other country's interests yet they are happy to see companies such as Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, Burger King etc., plant their open sores around the world whether they are welcome or not.

That's a convenient but IMO unfair and simplistic viewpoint. Virtually anywhere you see a company operating overseas...

- Somebody sold/leased them the land they are operating on;
- Somebody (generally government) gave them the permit to operate, or at least didn't use their powers to intervene;
- Somebody (local) has a job there;
- Somebody is consuming their products, or there'd be no financial incentive to be there.

So to say they are "unwelcome" is a bit disingenuous. You might not like it, and Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, Burger King may be the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse but as far as I know nobody is being forced to buy their products at gunpoint.

Regarding xenophobia - I don't think that is it at all. Some countries stand to gain from the loosening of economic/ownership policies and others stand to lose, and this differs depending on the industry/commodity. Their policies generally reflect their reality and where policies conflict they negotiate to benefit themselves. What I find amazing on here is that people expect countries to act otherwise. Welcome to Earth!
"When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True Story."- Barney Stinson
 
BD338
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:44 pm

Quoting mffoda (Reply 9):
Quoting Burkhard (Reply 2):
Big question is: Can the economic powers of the past ( Europe and US ) keep their (barely legal) foreign ownership limitations, or will we have 3 airlines world wide in 2020: Air China, Emirates and Lufthansa.

I would say the answer to your question is: Yes they can... Ever heard of the "The Civil Reserve Air Fleet" ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_Reserve_Air_Fleet

Quote:

"To join Civil Reserve Air Fleet, carriers must maintain a minimum commitment of 30 percent of its Civil Reserve Air Fleet capable passenger fleet and 15 percent of its Civil Reserve Air Fleet capable cargo fleet. Aircraft committed must be U.S. registered."

So the requirement is for aircraft registered in the US nothing to do with ownership of the company. So, for a example a European carrier could own say, AA but would be in perfect compliance with CCRAF if the aircraft were registered in the US.

It won't happen anytime soon but these archaic ownership rules will fall sometime in the future. At the moment, in the US for example, it is OK for a defense contractor to be owned by a foreign company but an airline cannot be. Something odd there....the regulations as-is make no business sense.

When the laws are eventually relaxed there will be three main airlines:

1) Oneworld
2) Skyteam
3) Star Alliance

Then the likes of Emirates etc.
 
goblin211
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:34 pm

Well to put it simply,
*i think countries with terrible economic problems even worse than ours i.e. Columbia, Iraq, etc. will stay the way they are.
*The US airlines will always be flying no matter what and will only improve with the A380, 787, etc. BUT, it'll be cutting it close to the end of the decade if delays keep going the way they are.
*Overseas restrictions are absolutely necessary because frankly not a lot of countries on this planet trust one another or for whatever reason that is legit i'm sure. i do agree that some are a little out there though.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 4):

*McDonald's sells coke in their restaurants so it's kind of like a codeshare in a way and i think we need as much of those as possible
From the airport with love
 
filipair
Posts: 63
Joined: Fri May 14, 2010 3:28 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:34 pm

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 2):
Big question is: Can the economic powers of the past ( Europe and US ) keep their (barely legal) foreign ownership limitations, or will we have 3 airlines world wide in 2020: Air China, Emirates and Lufthansa.
Quoting r2rho (Reply 4):
It would be nice if in the next ten years we could see some genuine liberalization in the airline market and the removal of outdated restrictions for cross-border operations and mergers

All of this talk about "liberalization of the market" begs the question: how will the creation of a giant transnational airline oligopoly benefit the consumer?

Invariably, if the world were reduced to a few (three) main airlines, huge cuts in capacity would occur in an attempt to drive prices down. Ultimately, the airline industry would shrink to serve only the very richest who could afford exorbitant prices.

Is this what we want?

Quoting macsog6 (Reply 8):
The biggest obstacle to a true streamlining of this industry, ensuring the profitability of the carrier, is the out-dated ownership laws

Why does the profitability of the carrier need to be ensured? Why can't carriers compete for profitability like they have to now? IMHO, allowing the worlds richest airlines to dominate the airline market with "guaranteed profits" is not in our best interest.
 
cahmc85
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun Jul 15, 2007 7:55 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:39 pm

What about LCC's in Europe? Will we have any mergers/acquisitions or just the normal expansion?
 
EddieDude
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:02 am

Quoting Goblin211 (Reply 13):
Well to put it simply,
*i think countries with terrible economic problems even worse than ours i.e. Columbia, Iraq, etc. will stay the way they are.

What makes you think that Colombia (NOT Columbia) has terrible economic problems and is comparable to Iraq? Colombia is a success story in Latin America. Gone are the days of the horrible guerilla problems, drug wars, kidnappings, etc. Colombia is a fast-growth economy that is year by year moving a lot of people from poverty to middle class and that is doing things right in terms of market liberalization, fiscal discipline, etcetera. You might want to get your facts right before making an assertion like that.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
virginson937
Posts: 38
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2009 8:40 pm

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:06 am

Chances of DL buying a stake in VS, meaning VS then join SkyTeam?? I can see that as a strong possibility.

Will
 
9lflyguy
Posts: 139
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:49 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:19 am

WN + FL = Southtran    couldn't resist
319 320 321 722 732 733 734 735 737 738 739 752 753 763 772 CR2 CR7 CR9 DHA D8B D8C D95 145 170 175 190 M82 M88 M90 S340
 
pillowtester
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:44 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:32 am

Don't forget about the NEW "new" *new* Pan Am, starting operations from Brownsville Texas this year. What's the latest word on that? Anybody?
...said Dan jubilantly.
 
santi319
Posts: 332
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RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:56 am

I can see NK becomming huge like FR did in Europe...
 
lucky777
Posts: 294
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 4:40 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 12:58 am

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 2):
Air China, Emirates and Lufthansa

Give me a break...on one hand you berate the U.S. and its "barely legal" foreign limitations as a hindrance to worldwide airlines, and yet you mention Emirates in the very same sentence as if it isn't essentially a wholly-owned subsidiary of the UAE gov't.....talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
 
413X3
Posts: 171
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:59 pm

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 1:14 am

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 16):
Gone are the days of the horrible guerilla problems, drug wars, kidnappings, etc.

What country are you talking about? You seem to be overstating progress and not being completely honest about the situation.
 
EddieDude
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Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 1:47 am

Seriously. 2011's Colombia is much, much different from the Colombia from the 1990s. There is simply no comparison.

These are just two of many sources of information you guys may want to check: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/co.html and http://colombiareports.com/colombia-...economic-and-political-growth.html

I mean, comparing Colombia to Iraq? That is completely ridiculous. That one is definitely not being honest about the situation.

Colombia's aviation industry is just a sign of how things have changed. Their flag carrier AV just combined with TA and is joining Star Alliance soon. The carrier has renovated its fleet from oldish Mad Dogs, 757s and 767s to brand new A32xs and A330s, and will soon receive 787s. AV-TA is poised to become one of the leading airlines in the region together with LATAM. BOG is going to become a major hub in the region too... just look at the new array of flights that are being launched from/to Colombia. And competition is always a good thing for consumers, and it is just going to get red hot in Colombia with the launching of LAN Colombia. A carrier like LA would not have acquired a Colombian carrier if it had doubts about the safety of making investments there.
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
User avatar
Coal
Posts: 2298
Joined: Sun Aug 13, 2006 11:14 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:10 am

Quoting Goblin211 (Reply 13):
*i think countries with terrible economic problems even worse than ours i.e. Columbia, Iraq, etc. will stay the way they are.

  

Maybe you should follow the Colombian aviation thread. I think the investments in fleet and hardware by AV plus the entrance of CM and LA to the market, not to mention the entrance of the airlines to Star Alliance speaks volume of the progress that has been made in aviation. Additionally, BOG is the top cargo airport in South America and an important connecting hub.

As per the comparisons between the Colombian, American, and Iraqi economies, maybe do a little more research before posting such a meat head comment (GDP growth, public debt, current / capital accounts balances / deficits, etc).

Cheers
Coal
Nxt Flts: MI RGN-SIN | SQ SIN-RGN-SIN | CX SIN-HKG-PVG | SQ PVG-SIN
 
Superfly
Posts: 37735
Joined: Thu May 11, 2000 8:01 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:02 am

Quoting r2rho (Reply 4):
Coca-Cola and McDonald's can set up shop anywhere they want on the planet, but LH cannot fly PEK-HKG, nor can QF fly BOG-EZE.

Not a good anaolgy.
McDonald's and Coca-Cola doesn't hurt local business as they're in locations with plenty of other restaurants and high foot traffic. That is not the case with airlines and I see no need for Lufthansa to sell tickets between PEK - HKG.
Every nation has a right to protect their own jobs and industries.

Quoting planesmith (Reply 10):
Coca-Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds, Burger King etc., plant their open sores around the world whether they are welcome or not.

All are profitable so the numbers indicate that they are welcome everywhere they open stores. Sure there will always be a small handful of unhappy people that will complain about anything & everything.

Quoting 413X3 (Reply 22):
Quoting EddieDude (Reply 16):
Gone are the days of the horrible guerilla problems, drug wars, kidnappings, etc.

What country are you talking about? You seem to be overstating progress and not being completely honest about the situation.

I was thinking the same. There is this thing called _ _ _ _ _ _ _ terrorism which is the reason passengers have to remove their shoes and undergo invasive body searches.
Bring back the Concorde
 
EddieDude
Posts: 6302
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2003 10:19 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:11 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 25):
here is this thing called _ _ _ _ _ _ _ terrorism which is the reason passengers have to remove their shoes and undergo invasive body searches.

And Colombia is responsible for that?
Next flights: MEX-LAX AM 738, LAX-PVG DL 77L, SHA-PEK CA 789, PEK-PVG CA A332, PVG-ORD MU 77W, ORD-MEX AM 738
 
planeguy727
Posts: 1054
Joined: Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:58 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:32 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 25):
Quoting r2rho (Reply 4):
Coca-Cola and McDonald's can set up shop anywhere they want on the planet, but LH cannot fly PEK-HKG, nor can QF fly BOG-EZE.

Not a good anaolgy.
McDonald's and Coca-Cola doesn't hurt local business as they're in locations with plenty of other restaurants and high foot traffic.

Keep in mind that organizations like McD are franchise licenses that are often owned by locals. Coca-cola allows production, bottling, and distribution also under license. Just read the side of a bottle/can and you can find out who.

This parallel has been done by a few airlines, but not many (Virgin is probably the biggest example - brand licensed).
I want to live in an old and converted 727...
 
Superfly
Posts: 37735
Joined: Thu May 11, 2000 8:01 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:20 am

Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 27):
This parallel has been done by a few airlines, but not many (Virgin is probably the biggest example - brand licensed).

...and a very welcome addition to US airline service.
Virgin America offers the best domestic service in the US.
Bring back the Concorde
 
TravelR
Posts: 94
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 12:42 pm

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Mon Jan 10, 2011 2:01 pm

Quoting virginson937 (Reply 17):
Chances of DL buying a stake in VS, meaning VS then join SkyTeam?? I can see that as a strong possibility.

I doubt this will happen since SQ owns 49% of VS. If they were to join an alliance, it would most likely be Star Alliance as I do not think SQ would ever let go of this share of VS. Recently DJ CEO was invited to Star Alliance meeting so if DJ is heading that way, I think VS may join if they elect to. I think VS has not joined any alliance since they never wanted to conform to alliance/other airline's rules since they wanted to be independent.

In Australia, SQ has been pushing heavily to try and fly Australia to USA but have failed on every occasion since the government is trying to protect Australian airlines, especially QF (due to their lobbying).

Quoting c5load (Thread starter):
Will AA grab US and form the top three: United, Delta, and American? Thoughts?

Since US is in Star Alliance and was second option to CO being merged with UA, I could see UA/CO taking them over and being a giant in the US.
You can never travel too much in your life!
 
Superfly
Posts: 37735
Joined: Thu May 11, 2000 8:01 am

RE: Airlines Of The Future: 2011-2020

Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:02 am

Quoting planesmith (Reply 10):
their open sores around the world whether they are welcome or not.
Quoting planeguy727 (Reply 27):
Keep in mind that organizations like McD are franchise licenses that are often owned by locals. Coca-cola allows production, bottling, and distribution also under license. Just read the side of a bottle/can and you can find out who.


Good point!
That goes to show that they provide jobs in these host countries as well. This may sound silly but Starbucks always has clean bathrooms and toilet paper. Go to a small local business public restroom here in Asia and it's often a mosquito infested room with a hole in the floor, no tissue paper and just a bucket of water to clean yourself.
That said, Starbucks is very much welcomed throughout developing nations here in Asia.
I've done a complete 180 on my opinion of Stabucks over the years.

Quoting travelR (Reply 29):
I doubt this will happen since SQ owns 49% of VS. If they were to join an alliance, it would most likely be Star Alliance as I do not think SQ would ever let go of this share of VS. Recently DJ CEO was invited to Star Alliance meeting so if DJ is heading that way, I think VS may join if they elect to. I think VS has not joined any alliance since they never wanted to conform to alliance/other airline's rules since they wanted to be independent.


I hope you're right.
Virgin offers spectacular service and would fit in well with the other elite carriers in Star Alliance such as Singapore, Thai, SAS and Lufthansa. Otherwise, Virgin seems to be doing very well on their own.
Bring back the Concorde

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