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American 767
Posts: 3924
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 7:27 am

Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:50 am

Now that the famous AA/US merger has come to a final agreement as discussed intensively in zillions of other posts, there will soon be 5 big airlines in the US:
-American
-Delta
-JetBlue
-Southwest
-United

And the small ones:
-Alaska
-Frontier
-Spirit
-Virgin America
-Hawaiian

Here is a recap of the big mergers this century:

2001: AA + TW = AA
2005: US + HP = US
2008: DL + NW = DL
2010: UA + CO = UA
2011: WN + Air Tran = WN
2013: AA + US = AA

What does everyone think the next one will be?

I would guess: Delta takes over Alaska.

Ben Soriano
Ben Soriano
 
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crj900lr
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 3:55 am

Possibly another one involving DL such as DL + HA = DL
 
Gemuser
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:10 am

Quoting american 767 (Thread starter):
What does everyone think the next one will be?

I strongly doubt that DOT/DOJ will permit ANY merger involving the "Big Three". I think they will approve mergers among the second rank airlines.

Gemuser
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PHX787
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:12 am

Quoting crj900lr (Reply 1):
Possibly another one involving DL such as DL + HA = DL

With HA? Nope not going to happen....

I'm assuming AS with someone else, but not for a while.

If CP gets its arse off the ground, maybe they'll merge with AS and form something
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TWA772LR
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:13 am

How about a merger among the regionals like XJ/ASA? What would be the next "big one" on that front?
Not every day we find light winds. What do we do in these situations? Fly.
 
737tanker
Posts: 246
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:24 am

It would not surprise me to see Southwest and Alaska merge.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:25 am

I believe the only logical pair out of the list is jetBlue + Virgin America, dumping VX's First Class.

Hawaiian has no need to merge with anyone else. Alaska will continue to be opportunistic in terms of routes, hubs, and codeshares. Spirit may continue as our only ULCC, and what happens to Frontier is anyone's guess.
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iFlyLOTs
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:27 am

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 4):
What would be the next "big one" on that front?

Eagle and PSA?  

My guess is that the mergers are done for a while now. We might see someone go under though and have their assets bought, who would that be? I have no idea. I do think that unless a turnaround of incredible proportions happens that VX will probably fail, they cater to a market that just isn't there. There would be some easy gate space to fill at LAX and SFO if that were to happen.

But honestly, I think there won't be any mergers for a long time.
"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
 
airliner371
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:32 am

Quoting american 767 (Thread starter):
-JetBlue

JetBlue doesn't belong with UA, DL, WN and AA/US. There are 4 big airlines (AA, UA, DL & WN) and then the rest. WN is the next biggest from B6 and they are 5x larger then B6, B6 is in the pack with AS, F9 etc...
 
Viscount724
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:33 am

Quoting american 767 (Thread starter):
I would guess: Delta takes over Alaska.

Why would AS want to merge with DL? They're much better off remaining independent and having the flexibility to work with all airlines, especially considering that many AS markets have little competition.
 
Italianflyer
Posts: 515
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 5:19 am

My WAG would be HA/AS...and that is iffy. I agree with Gemuser that anything involving UA/AA/DL will have a hard time passing the Feds (barring another 2008 meltdown or, God forbid, massive terrorist attack). The next round of consolidaiton is definately the regional tier. With only 3 majors, there is no need for 5 large holding companies plus a handful of indies.
 
mikeology
Posts: 142
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2012 6:20 pm

RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:22 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 6):
I believe the only logical pair out of the list is jetBlue + Virgin America, dumping VX's First Class.

My first thoughts were exactly the same. Considering VX may be out in a few years B6 would pick up aircraft it already utilizes. Not to mention similar routes. Not sure about seeing SFO or LAX as a B6 hub
 
cessna53996
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Tue Feb 19, 2013 3:46 pm

B6 taking over VX would be a great move for B6, they really need a much larger west coast presence, and this would definitely give them one. SFO would be a good fit for B6, but I'm skeptical about LAX simply because of the intense competition. B6 would gain 30 A320neos, 53 A320s, and 10 A319s (maybe they could give those to AAY). They could probably double or triple their west coast ops by doing this. Though Barger said they wanted independent, organic growth, which may throw a monkey wrench into this.
Feeling a little blue in ORH, JetBlue.
 
Eagleboy
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Tue Feb 19, 2013 4:31 pm

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 8):
JetBlue doesn't belong with UA, DL, WN and AA/US. There are 4 big airlines (AA, UA, DL & WN) and then the rest.

I agree with this clarification. I can't see any more merger in the short term. DL and UA are still working through their merger process, the AA/US process is only starting. WN is discovering that the takeover wasn't as smooth as they first thought.

So unless VX go under and get bought up by B6 or 1 of the big three I would say no mergers for 3-5 years.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 3920
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Tue Feb 19, 2013 5:19 pm

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 9):
Quoting american 767 (Thread starter):
I would guess: Delta takes over Alaska.

Why would AS want to merge with DL? They're much better off remaining independent and having the flexibility to work with all airlines, especially considering that many AS markets have little competition.

Yeah, I still have never seen the memo that states that it just has to be a foregone conclusion that AS has to merge with someone because of changing times, or whatever.........

Someone explain to me what law makes it mandatory or foregone that AS cannot remain independent indefinitely.
 
rwy04lga
Posts: 1976
Joined: Mon Jul 18, 2005 7:21 am

RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Thu Feb 21, 2013 11:00 pm

Quoting EagleBoy (Reply 13):
DL is still working through their merger process

It is? Pray tell, what's left to work out?
Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
 
n729pa
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Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2011 6:16 pm

RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:28 am

Fedex and UPS .......new company will be called FedUP

I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hawaiian, with their routes they must be an interest to someone, say AA for example.
 
mia305
Posts: 322
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Wed Mar 06, 2013 5:03 pm

As stated above, there won't be any mergers for while.
But, I would like see B6 and VX merge, the fleets are the
same and B6 needs a bigger presence on the west coast.

Or how about B6 and Spirit?
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: Next Big Merger In The United States

Thu Mar 07, 2013 2:59 am

Quoting n729pa (Reply 16):
Hawaiian, with their routes they must be an interest to someone, say AA for example.

HA's network would be a great fit into the new AA's network and fill a massive AA hole. But I don't see anything going on with HA merger-wise for the next 10 years.
Not every day we find light winds. What do we do in these situations? Fly.

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