pavlin
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What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:49 am

What will be used instead of kerosene in about 50 or more years from now?
I heard something involving Hydrogen but I don't believe it will work.
The flight range would drop significantly because H2 takes a lot of volume.
Do you have any ideas? Biokerosene?
 
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Jetlagged
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:25 am

I think they were looking at liquid hydrogen as an alternative. The problem would be to keep it liquid!

[Edited 2005-10-23 01:26:07]
The glass isn't half empty, or half full, it's twice as big as it needs to be.
 
Fly2HMO
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 8:49 am

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 1):
The problem would be to keep it liquid!

....And to keep the rest of the passengers and plane from freezing  fever 

Whatever the fuel will be, it's going to have to be compatible with any airliners that exist right now, and probably will have to involve some kind of combustion, and be relatively efficient and cheap and clean and good smelling etc..

From my point of view, if the next fuel to be used doesn't meet those requirements, THEN the aviation industry will be screwed  faint 
 
474218
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:33 am

What makes you think the worlds supply of oil will ever run out. Thirty years ago they were saying we had thirty years of oil left, "we must conserve, we must find new sources of energy." Will thirty years later, we still have thirty years of oil left so "we must conserve, we must find new sources of energy." Don't worry we will find an alternative when one is required.
 
aerlingus330
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 9:58 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 3):
What makes you think the worlds supply of oil will ever run out.

We dont know when...but It definatly will run out someday, because it is a fossil fuel.

AerLingus330
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3201
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 1:06 pm

Lots of people continue to look very seriously at hydrogen. They'll solve the infrastructure issues, just like they did with the switch from avgas to kerosene. Hydrogen will likely come into play whether oil ever runs out or not.
7 hours aint long-haul
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:45 pm

With Hydrogen.Safety Issues would be a concern.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
kaddyuk
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 6:46 pm

Currently, an oil field is concidered "depleted" when it reaches 60% of its original capacity... How long have we been mining for oil?
Oil wont be running out within the next 7 or 8 decades...

As a replacement... thats difficult... Nuclear is the only realistic option however shielding is the hardest part. If a lightweight nuclear shielding can be developed then nuclear power is the direction to follow...
Whoever said "laughter is the best medicine" never had Gonorrhea
 
pavlin
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:44 pm

Nuclear power doesn't seem realistic.
And even if we use liquid (I had that in mind when I posted topic) hydrogen planes will still have 3x less range than today even if they will have engine with 80% efficiency. I just can't imagine those big H2 tanks on an airplane
 
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NZ1
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 7:58 pm

Don't be fooled, there is a s**tload of oil out there. New Zealand has masses and masses of oil reserves, but hasn't yet got anyone in to drill for it, due to being in a remote location. Saying we are running out of oil is scaremongering by Bush and co, to keep the price high. Remember Bush Snr has his fingers ina lot of 'oil' pies doesn't he.

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CosmicCruiser
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:33 pm

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 9):
Saying we are running out of oil is scaremongering by Bush and co, to keep the price high. Remember Bush Snr has his fingers ina lot of 'oil' pies doesn't he.

What a crock!! I've never heard Bush say we're running out of oil. If you want to know about "fingers in the big oil pies" you might be surprised to know that Al Gore Sr. was in the back pocket of Cont. Oil for decades and left Al Jr. plenty of their stock when he died.
In fact there are vast untapped fields here in the mid-far west as well as Alaska but they're not being drilled because the environmentalist groups have prevented it.
 
TheSonntag
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Sun Oct 23, 2005 10:46 pm

An interesting alternative will be Sunfuel/Synfuel and hydration of coal. This process has been done sucessfully by Germany during WW2, so you could, in theory, produce kerosene out of coal. I know that this is not really a good alternative, as it is not sustainable either, but at least it is possible.

Sunfuel is fuel produced in a similiar way which can also be useful. So there are alternatives. As oil prices rise, a) more expensive oil fields become lucrative b) these alternatives become economically feasible and c) more efficient aircraft are developed. Combine these factors and you will have oil for many years to come.
 
keta
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Mon Oct 24, 2005 2:35 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 3):
What makes you think the worlds supply of oil will ever run out

Are you serious? Oil will run out, it's just a matter of time.

Quoting Kaddyuk (Reply 7):
As a replacement... thats difficult... Nuclear is the only realistic option however shielding is the hardest part. If a lightweight nuclear shielding can be developed then nuclear power is the direction to follow...

It's a possibility, but I see it difficult. There was a nice discussion about that a while ago:
The Nuclear/Solar Airliner, Can It Be Done? (by UAL747 Jul 6 2005 in Tech Ops)


From my point of view, it's a serious debate. It's possible that we still have many years until oil runs out, but it's better if we get somehow alarmed, it's the only way we can get a solution. Otherwise it will be late and we'll have to find a quick alternative. Even if oil lasts forever, it would be great if we find another way of getting energy, because the model of today is painful, for the world and for us.

In transportation, the airplane industry is, I think, the worst situated. Cars, trucks, trains and ships can easily switch to electricity (given electricity is produced from a source other than oil, for example nuclear), but airplanes have a problem and I think we should be a little worried, or at least aware of the problem.

Right now the more feasible alternative would be, I think, hydrogen or biofuels.
Where there's a will, there's a way
 
Gary2880
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Mon Oct 24, 2005 6:11 am

each passenger will have to bring on 50 AA Duracels...

or D size for long haul...
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Mon Oct 24, 2005 1:55 pm

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 9):
New Zealand has masses and masses of oil reserves, but hasn't yet got anyone in to drill for it, due to being in a remote location.

Im Surprised.If the Availability is present.Why no effort to Extract it.

Glider 1
When Oil is Exhausted.Hand Gliders sale should rise then Smile
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
ZKSUJ
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Mon Oct 24, 2005 7:04 pm

Better start buying canoes eh  Wink Big grin
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Mon Oct 24, 2005 11:11 pm

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 15):
Better start buying canoes eh

Need Water  Smile

What is the ranking of the Oil producing Countries,in terms of production & in terms of ATF/Gasoline.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
prebennorholm
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Tue Oct 25, 2005 7:31 am

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 13):
each passenger will have to bring on 50 AA Duracels...

That seems like a brilliant idea. So I just made some rough math to calculate the correct number of AA Duracells. Not all that rough - the following numbers are correct within +/-20%.

We assume a 1,000 miles flight on a Boeing 737-800 or Airbus 320 with 150 pax lasting two hours.

Each passenger will have to carry not 50, but one million AA Duracells. That will be five tonnes of Duracells per passenger.

There is one slight problem: The plane will exceed the max take-off weight by some 720 tonnes.

I don't know the price of a Duracell AA, but let's assume 50 cent. That will make the "fuel" price $500,000 per pax one way, a million dollars on a return ticket.

Milage: The plane will cover a distance of 0.84 inch or 21 mm per Duracell AA, or 10.5 feet per passenger.

Kerosene will be some $50 one way per pax. So will will reach a breakeven point when oil has become ten thousand times more expensive. That will be the day when our US friends pay $20,000 for one gallon gas. Then we only have to solve the weight problem.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
FaroeFlyer
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Tue Oct 25, 2005 4:59 pm

Anyways, I can assure you guys, OIL WILL NEVER RUN OUT. Never.

Over time we will see a drop in oil production since it will be harder to find. The price will go up and up and up until finally it just won't be worth the money anymore. No will be able to afford it. The last oil will never see the surface.
Cast your dancing spell my way...
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Tue Oct 25, 2005 5:27 pm

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 17):
There is one slight problem: The plane will exceed the max take-off weight by some 720 tonnes.

Amazing!.
Solution:- Find more Oil.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
wingscrubber
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:59 pm

The solution would be Cryoplanes! That is, a plane which has Cryogenic (very cold) fuel. The russian a/c manufacturer Tupolev are to date the only company to have built and flown a prototype Cryoplane, the Tu-155, which is fuelled by LNG (Liquid natural gas), Airbus have also been considering a Liquid Hydrogen concept...

Check this out-
http://www.tupolev.ru/English/Show.asp?SectionID=82&Page=1

If oil dissapears, the world will still cope, the only difference is the oil tycoons *cough*georgebush*cough* who are raping our wallets will become LNG/Hydrogen tycoons.
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sunrisevalley
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RE: What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out

Thu Oct 27, 2005 12:14 am

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 9):
Don't be fooled, there is a s**tload of oil out there. New Zealand has masses and masses of oil reserves, but hasn't yet got anyone in to drill for it, due to being in a remote location


And this is so for many other regions of the world. If is all about what the market will be willing to pay for it.
The Canadian tar sands has vast resources but not at $25 a barrel. If oil was at about a stable $70 a barrel all the NZ oil would be economical to extract, and this goes for many regions in the world.

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