mirrodie
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Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 10:32 pm

Over the past year or two, I've finally been able to fly on the 777 and A340, as well as 743. All flights were in First.


First thing noticed: All of these aircraft are quite large compared to the Md80 and 737s that I usuallly fly on. Spacious cabins with tall ceilings. I like it.

More importantly and the reason I am posting. As far as I can recall the 777 has not had any crashes. Has the A 340? Or A 330?

ANd I know that since 2001, the statistics have shown that there are less crashes than ever and flying us much more safe.

Subsequent to this question is this: What are the reasons that flying is much safer? Is it because the newer aircraft are being made better? Better CRM? Better piloting all around? (I don't think this is all of the answer only because todays skies are still full of older aircraft, which throws out the beter technology answer). Or are pilots getting better? Better systems?

I am just trying to understand why are skies are much safer now. I mean, its awesome to think that the 777, A340 and A 330 have all never had an accident. What other aircraft have not had a single crash?
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777wt
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:02 pm

I'm sure the A330 and A340 did have an crash before.
 
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Jetlagged
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:13 pm

Air France lost an A340 at Toronto last year in a landing overrun. The aircraft was burnt out, but the passengers and crew were mercifully unharmed.

An A330 crashed during certification flight testing at Toulouse in 1994 (not a passenger flight and the event would never have occurred in revenue service).

Air Transat had a close call with an A330 running out of fuel near the Azores in 2001. The aircraft survived the emergency landing with minor damage.

As you say, no 777 accidents to date.

Basically an excellent safety record for all three aircraft types.
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HAWK21M
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting Mirrodie (Thread starter):
What are the reasons that flying is much safer? Is it because the newer aircraft are being made better

Maintenance & Flt operational Friendly Aircraft,Better Reliability.

Quoting Mirrodie (Thread starter):
I mean, its awesome to think that the 777, A340 and A 330 have all never had an accident. What other aircraft have not had a single crash

If not mistaken the A330 & A340 have had 4 crashes Each.The B777 has a clean Slate till date.

regds
MEL
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Jetlagged
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:19 pm

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 3):
If not mistaken the A330 & A340 have had 4 crashes Each

Four crashes each? That makes eight. I only know of three (see reply 2), one of which was not a crash.

There was an A340 lost in a ground fire after maintenance, which hardly counts as an air accident. The aircraft was being towed from the hangar!
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HAWK21M
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:36 pm

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 4):
Four crashes each? That makes eight. I only know of three (see reply 2), one of which was not a crash.

True.I stand corrected only One A340 crash.The other Two were Mx related [Air France] & terrorist Strike [Srilankan].
The A330s too had one crash the other Three of which two were terror strikes [Srilankan] & last was a Ground fire.
So A330 & A340 One each & B777 None till date.
regds
MEL
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futurecaptain
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:26 am

Quoting Mirrodie (Thread starter):
What are the reasons that flying is much safer?

More reliable technology / engines
Widespread use of GPS
use of traffic alert sysyems and terrain collision systems
heads up displays
glass cockpits....more info readily available for the pilot
better weather reporting stations
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Starlionblue
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:27 am

The aircraft are of course safer by design, but one should not discount the importance of other things which have improved dramatically in the last few decades. To mention a few:
- Training
- CRM
- Weather warning systems
- Radar systems
- Tracking software and procedures.
- Navigation systems
- Maintenance proceudures

The combination of all these factors makes for safety. Another important thing frequently mentioned in this forum is the importance of operator over aircraft. In other words, a 30 year old 737-200 operated by, say, Lufthansa will be safer than a 1 year old 777-200ER operated by the People's Front for the Liberation of Banana Republic Airways. No amont of safety features in the aircraft will save you from bad training and bad maintenance.


340 and 330 losses have been as follows:

A340. 3 hull losses, no fatalities.
- 20-JAN-1994 Airbus A.340 F-GNIA Air France CDG
Ground fire
- 24-JUL-2001 Airbus A.340 4R-ADD SriLankan Airlines Colombo
Guerilla/terrorist action
- 02-AUG-2005 Airbus A.340 F-GLZQ Air France Toronto
Runway overrun and fire


A330. 4 hull losses, 7 fatalities, none of which service:
- 30-JUN-1994 Airbus A.330 F-WWKH Airbus Industrie Toulouse
Certification accident due to lack of planning, bad CRM, pilot error.
- 15-MAR-2000 Airbus A.330 9M-MKB Malaysia Airlines Kuala Lumpur
Ground fire
- 24-JUL-2001 Airbus A.330 4R-ALE SriLankan Airlines Colombo
Guerilla/terrorist action
- 24-JUL-2001 Airbus A.330 4R-ALF SriLankan Airlines Colombo
Guerilla/terrorist action

[Edited 2006-09-23 18:27:52]
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pilotpip
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:40 am

Something else to consider is the fact that the narrowbody aircraft will fly more segments per day. More segments means more takeoffs, and landings. As a result, they have a larger (although still small) probability of a crash than the widebodies.

I'd also submit that the ETOPS aircraft have more stringent mx in order to keep the certification as well as a much more intensive preflight.
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wing
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 7:03 pm

Quoting Pilotpip (Reply 8):
Something else to consider is the fact that the narrowbody aircraft will fly more segments per day. More segments means more takeoffs, and landings. As a result, they have a larger (although still small) probability of a crash than the widebodies.

That I agree. Considering the fact that vast majority of the aviation accidents happen during the TO/climb and descent/landing phases of the flight.A widebody flying a 12 hour transcontinental route will be only once in those environments while a 737/320 in a domestic service will be experiencing nearly 10 TO's landings during the same time interval.

A good reputation fo safety is a very good thing but does not guarantee that you will be among the first and only crash of the airplane type/or airline.Take the concorde for example,there are many examples like that in history.So I guess best is to relax and enjoy the flight until you see the Gremlins  devil  unscrewing the wing from the body  Smile
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zeke
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 9:06 pm

Quoting Mirrodie (Thread starter):
Better piloting all around? (I don't think this is all of the answer only because todays skies are still full of older aircraft, which throws out the beter technology answer). Or are pilots getting better?

I think we have a better understanding of why accidents occur, and share information relating to accidents and incidents so others can learn from it.

If you look in http://www.boeing.com/news/techissues/ and get the "Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents" you will see that it concludes that the primary cause in 62% of all accidents are flight crew.

Aircraft design has automated flying more making the pilot more managers rather than stick and rudder people. Automated checklists, monitoring systems etc has enhanced safety.

It has also drawn a new set of problems, automation issues.

Airports have improved, navigational accuracy (GPS), and landing aids have improved allowing more flying to be automated.

As it has been identified that pilots are the primary cause in 62% of all accidents, it is of no surprise that the time where the automation is turned off (final approach and landing) and pilots flying is where 51% of accidents occur.

Many airlines now have a big brother watching the pilots (called Flight Operations Monitoring system), requiring pilots to remain within defined parameters, go outside those parameters the aircraft can automatically, or maintenance people can retrieve the flight report for post flight analysis.

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 2):
As you say, no 777 accidents to date.

I think technically there has been more than one, however all on the ground. If I recall correctly a refueller died when the connected broke off when refuelling, a number of people killed during ramp operations, and two ground collisions I can remember in the past year, SQ 777 and TG 330 at BKK, and a China Southern 777 hit a China Eastern Airlines A320 at Beijing.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 7):
A330. 4 hull losses, 7 fatalities, none of which service

If I recall correctly the MAS one was a fairly new aircraft and a liquid dangerous good in cargo leaked out over the wing box. I think another incident in PR had someone jump from the aircraft in flight, and I think the same aircraft took out a tree going into Subic Bay on another flight, and of course the 330/777 running into each other at BKK.

Rumours were about a while back of a GF 343 taking out a tree at BKK and flying to the middle east on three engines, and the you also have the EK 340 with a bad tail strike at JNB, and the recent VS with one at HKG.
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jamesjimlb
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 11:18 pm

didn't an Aircanda A340 skid off the runway last year? as for the A330 i don't know.
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:22 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 10):
I think another incident in PR had someone jump from the aircraft in flight, and I think the same aircraft took out a tree going into Subic Bay on another flight

Yes, and that was one of the most amazing stories in recent years. One pax got up, robbed the other pax of their valuables, ordered the captain to descend to a low altitude, switch off cabin pressure and open the door and then he jumped.

One flaw in this plan: his self-made parachute didn't work properly. Bummer.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/764625.stm

Philippine police say they have found the body of a man who hijacked an airliner, robbed 300 passengers on board and then left the plane in mid-air wearing a home-made parachute. But there is debate over whether the hijacker, Augusto Lakandula, was pushed out against his will or jumped voluntarily after a flight attendant admitted helping him out of the door.

"He was still holding a grenade and one steward was afraid it would fall accidentally and go off inside the cabin," said airline spokesman Rolando Estabillo. Police said no charges would be brought against the crew member involved.

General Jose Lachica said soldiers had recovered what was believed to be the remains of Mr Lakandula in a heavily forested area in the town of Real, about 70km (40 miles) east of the capital, Manila. His body was found with the improvised parachute - but not with the bag of money that he had taken from other people on board the Philippine Airlines jet, General Lachica said. Lakandula was identified by his seat number on the plane.

A police officer told the DZMM radio station that the man had landed so hard that his body was buried in mud, with only his knees and hands protruding. Local residents reported seeing a plane circling, and saw something fall from the plane. Finally, they saw a man floating for about five minutes, but he separated from the parachute and fell into the forested mountains.

Flight PR812 was nearly an hour into its 90-minute journey from Davao City in the southern Philippines to Manila, when an armed and "deranged" Lakandula - wearing a ski mask with swimming goggles on top - ordered the pilot to return to Davao. At one point, he fired a shot inside the cockpit, said pilot Emmanuel Generoso.

[...]

The pilot depressurised the cabin to allow a door to be opened, after descending to a lower altitude of 1,800 metres (6,000 feet) at the hijacker's request. As the door was opened a huge gust of wind swept into the aircraft, a passenger said. A member of the crew admitted pushing the hijacker out of the Airbus A330, saying he had to because the man wanted to jump.

[...]
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David L
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 12:35 am

Um...

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 12):
But there is debate over whether the hijacker, Augusto Lakandula, was pushed out against his will or jumped voluntarily after a flight attendant admitted helping him out of the door.



Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 12):
A member of the crew admitted pushing the hijacker out of the Airbus A330, saying he had to because the man wanted to jump.

Is it OK to laugh?
 
SlamClick
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:50 am

Quoting David L (Reply 13):
Is it OK to laugh?

Perfectly good manners.  Smile

Quoting Pilotpip (Reply 8):
I'd also submit that the ETOPS aircraft have more stringent mx in order to keep the certification as well as a much more intensive preflight.

I would agree except that maintenance issues and mechanical reliability have all but disappeared as cause factors. At least this is true among the airlines of the major nations.

Sadly, what I still see is a pilot's ego, stubbornness or lack of judgement pushing the plane into a bad situation as in the Air France crash at Toronto.

Hint: Thunderstorm in progress ON your runway - don't land.
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David L
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:55 am

Quoting SlamClick (Reply 14):
Perfectly good manners.

Phew. Just as well.  biggrin 

Quoting SlamClick (Reply 14):
Sadly, what I still see is a pilot's ego, stubbornness or lack of judgement pushing the plane into a bad situation as in the Air France crash at Toronto.

Hint: Thunderstorm in progress ON your runway - don't land.

While I don't have a problem with that consensus (as if it would matter), couldn't the same be said of those pilots who landed immediately before and those who were queuing up to land immediately afterwards? Didn't they only escape criticism because they "got away with it"?

Of course, I realise that the execution of the landing may be open to different criticisms.
 
2H4
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:12 am



Quoting David L (Reply 15):
couldn't the same be said of those pilots who landed immediately before and those who were queuing up to land immediately afterwards?

Good point. It's not always possible to define the exact boundary of a thunderstorm, so in certain cases, it comes down to judgement. When judgement comes into play, "safe" and "unsafe" become open for interpretation, based on the particular set of conditions at a given time.

For example, it seems that the pilot who successfully lands on the ragged edge of a thunderstorm is often considered a "hero" for reading the weather, making a sound judgement, and getting in. On the other hand, the pilot who attempts a landing moments later, using the same judgement under the same (detectable) conditions....but encounters a freak gust during the flare and bends metal....would be considered an idiot for attempting the landing in the first place.




2H4




[Edited 2006-09-24 22:13:34]
Intentionally Left Blank
 
David L
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:38 am

Quoting 2H4 (Reply 16):
On the other hand, the pilot who attempts a landing moments later, using the same judgement under the same (detectable) conditions....but encounters a freak gust during the flare and bends metal....

Or the aircraft immediately behind had the AF crew decided to divert before starting their approach. They could've been where the AF flight was at about the same time.

If there had been no aircraft landing successfully ahead of them, would the AF crew have been more cautious?
 
domokun
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:06 am

IIRC if you look at a graph of accidents per flight hour over time, there are various spikes or peaks where new technology was adopted - one excellent case being where many pilots transitioned from props to jets.

There was another phase; my overall point is one additional factor is that planes have not gone through a massive transition (such as prop --> jet) in awhile.

I would bet another reason would be a higher reliability of sub-components due to evolutions in machining and manufacturing.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:51 am

Quoting David L (Reply 13):
Is it OK to laugh?

That one is a definite Darwin Award contender. Still chuckling...

Quoting SlamClick (Reply 14):
Sadly, what I still see is a pilot's ego, stubbornness or lack of judgement pushing the plane into a bad situation as in the Air France crash at Toronto.

This raises a point about training and personalities. I get the impression that 50 years ago, egos were on average allowed to run rampant, with Captains running roughshod over F/Os and the "Top Gun ideal" being the norm. "I am Pilot. Hear me roar." Today, a pilot seems a much more benign creature. More police dog than pitbull. More cunning that daring. More likely to listen to criticism and act on it.

Or am I seeing things?
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HAWK21M
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 19):
I get the impression that 50 years ago, egos were on average allowed to run rampant, with Captains running roughshod over F/Os and the "Top Gun ideal" being the norm. "I am Pilot. Hear me roar." Today, a pilot seems a much more benign creature. More police dog than pitbull. More cunning that daring. More likely to listen to criticism and act on it.

I guess its the same with Mx too.The Newer Generation is more Welcoming to Discuss.
regds
MEL
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Lemurs
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:40 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 10):
I think technically there has been more than one, however all on the ground. If I recall correctly a refueller died when the connected broke off when refuelling, a number of people killed during ramp operations, and two ground collisions I can remember in the past year, SQ 777 and TG 330 at BKK, and a China Southern 777 hit a China Eastern Airlines A320 at Beijing.

Also, CO had a fairly serious tailstrike last summer that took out one of their 772ER's for awhile while Boeing flew in a new tail section and made repairs (this was at EWR)
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HAWK21M
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 9:27 pm

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 21):
CO had a fairly serious tailstrike last summer that took out one of their 772ER's for awhile while Boeing flew in a new tail section and made repairs (this was at EWR

How long was the AOG like.
regds
MEL
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Lemurs
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:51 am

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 22):
How long was the AOG like.

Going from the archives, the tailstrike happened on CO99 EWR-HKG on March 2nd, 2005, ship 008. It re-entered revenue service on April 17th. Pretty impressive, since it included repairs to damage on the rear bulkhead. It's unclear if they simply did a repair, or replaced the entire rear bulkhead. I get the impression it was the latter, given Boeing's past history with bulkhead repairs gone wrong...6 weeks is really fairly amazing in that light.
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HAWK21M
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Wed Sep 27, 2006 1:57 pm

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 23):
given Boeing's past history with bulkhead repairs gone wrong...6 weeks is really fairly amazing in that light.

If it was an Entire Bulkhead job.Then its quite fast.
regds
MEL
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Lemurs
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Wed Sep 27, 2006 2:31 pm

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 24):
If it was an Entire Bulkhead job.Then its quite fast.

Aha! I found the discussion...was checking CivAv since that's where it was reported initially, but the repair discussion took place here in TechOps. Boeing flew an entire new tail section to EWR on an Antonov and replaced it wholesale. 6 weeks...wow
RE: CO 772 Tailstrike Repair---Pretty Cool (by Brons2 Apr 11 2005 in Tech Ops)
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mandala499
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RE: Latest Crash Trends, Stats And Reasons?

Fri Sep 29, 2006 8:51 am

772 haven't had any writeoffs... but I can recall the MH 772 tailscrape, an MH772 being struck by de-icing rigs, SQ 772 Engine blowout in CPH, and recently China Southern 772 clipping the tail of an A320...

Apart from that... "nothing serious" *implication goes both ways ---grin---

And there those incidents that we never heard about... (mainly no "dramatic end" cases)... such as a 777 landing on the wrong runway in ICN...

But if we're talking purely about crashes, then physical damage is the limitation to the discussions...

CRM has saved countless of bad situations... Bad piloting has attributed to many incidents and accidents. Though many were blamed on crew error, there are those accidents where "management pressure" is suspected to be a primary contributory factor to bad crew decision.

SQ 744 tailscrape in AKL
Lion Air MD80 in SOC

For Bad maintenance... There are many potentially fatal ones that never made it to the mainstream news...
One airline has had countless... Adam Air: IRS failure leading to the 734 totally lost and landing in an airport the middle of nowhere
Adam Air's recent total Instrument Failure resulting in a gross bank with recovery of only 1000ft AGL + flap abnormalities resulting in overspeed landing (734)
Deferring engine maintenance resulting in inflight engine failure
countless of IRS failures...

Then there are those flights that crashed with "bad support services" and "bad teamwork between various parts of the airline...
Batavia Air's "water fuel contamination" problem, leading to the aircraft grounded until today.
Various overload or bad C/G near incidents
The most serious being the Mandala 732 crash last year with overload strongly suspected.

Many of these are human error... not fair of only the crew is blamed, they may not know what was actually loaded, management pressure remains a problem in a few airlines, leading to crew to "be forced to break the rules" and land below minima or eating almost their reserves etc...

Of course, there are still accidents caused "purely" by crew error (eg: Merpati nose first landing in Makassar last year)...

Mandala499
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