747400sp
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Mon Aug 17, 2009 2:46 am

Looking at the fact, that Bombardier and Embraer has started to design jets that are close to a 737 size, could you see them designing a jet around a 787 or A350 XWB size? I know it would be some years from now, but could you see it happening?
 
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Mon Aug 17, 2009 3:07 am



Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
could you see them designing a jet around a 787 or A350 XWB size?

could they design it? Im sure their engineers and aircraft designers have the education to design a widebody.

Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
but could you see it happening?

doubtful in the next 20 years. considering the tough times Boeing and Airbus are going through now, I couldn't see another (rookie) entrant into the market.
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GST
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Mon Aug 17, 2009 8:37 pm

The trouble is the massive investment in a new aircraft of any size. The smaller (737/A320 and under) sized aircraft have a massive market, so a larger number of competitor aircraft can be justifiably developed and expect sales to easily pay for their development, and turn a healthy profit for the shareholders. When you get to larger aircraft though, the market size dwindles. There are only so many airports that can handle the large aircraft and have a customer base to warrant their use, and so there is a more finite number of routes and operators that can justify a larger aircraft type. This is a very basic reason (one of many) for the struggle to success for the a380, there just arent that many aircraft of that size required in the world, and its current order list wont come close to break even. I do think it will be a sucess eventually, but not fast.


Yes, Embraer and Bombardier have the experteese to build a new widebody aircraft if they chose to, but I do not see them choosing to as the market just isnt large enough to give a third type on the scene much of a chance of making a profit. They may have a chance if they came out with something suitably revolutionary that it was still selling like hotcakes 20 years down the line (like the A320), but that is not easy nor guranteed. I can see them making types of A321 equivalent perhaps, but holding there for the next 20 years or so at least IMO.
 
A342
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Mon Aug 17, 2009 9:40 pm

Maybe a small widebody to replace the A310 / 767-200 on long-haul routes and provide a better alternative to the 783 on short/medium length sectors. This would not compete head to head with Airbus and Boeing.
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EcuadorianMD11
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:28 pm

Is this too far fetched?
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PPVRA
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Mon Aug 17, 2009 10:45 pm



Quoting EcuadorianMD11 (Reply 4):

Yes. I don't think you will ever find:

1. Giant pilots, or

2. a market large enough to develop an aircraft for pygmies

ps: I'm referring to the scaling between the pax versus cockpit windows  Wink
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thegeek
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:59 am

Shouldn't they get into 6 abreast airliners first?
 
TSS
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:46 am



Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
Looking at the fact, that Bombardier and Embraer has started to design jets that are close to a 737 size, could you see them designing a jet around a 787 or A350 XWB size?

I suppose it's possible somewhere down the road, but I'd much rather see Bombardier get the CSeries in production and selling before they tackle or even think about larger projects, and I'll say the same about Embraer and their spiritual CSeries equivalent.

This brings me to a slightly off-topic point I've been considering in regards to the 787: I can't help but wonder if Boeing might have run into a few less problems with the 787 if they had just built an experimental "proof of concept" plane to test some of the ideas put into use on the production 787. Computer models are great, but as Boeing has rather embarrassingly and expensively found out, there is no substitute for real-world, hands-on experience to verify that the computer models are correct. And this is Boeing, a company that has as much if not more experience building large passenger aircraft than any other company on earth. One can only imagine what sort of problems Bombardier and/or Embraer might encounter building an aircraft the size of an A350/787, which would be radically larger than anything they've built before.
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astuteman
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Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:45 am



Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
could you see them designing a jet around a 787 or A350 XWB size?

Bear in mind perhaps that "designing", and "developing and industrialising" a widebody are worlds apart.
It's this latter bit that an entrant will find difficult. The investment is massive and the payback time long, and the bigger you go, the less room there is for a new entrant.

"Designing", and "designing a class leading product" are also not necessarily the same.
It's easy to see how pressure to reduce both the capital cost and operating cost of more recent widebodys has dramatically complicated the development and industrialisation of both Airbus's and Boeing's latest programmes.

This aspect shouldn't be underestimated.

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DocLightning
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:50 pm



Quoting Thegeek (Reply 6):
Shouldn't they get into 6 abreast airliners first?

Why? Lockheed's first jet-powered civil transport was the L-1011.
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:12 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):

Why? Lockheed's first jet-powered civil transport was the L-1011.

And even though it was a magnificent aircraft (easily the best of its era) it failed abysmally in the market, and drove Lockheed out of the civilian market completely.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
GST
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 5:18 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):

Why? Lockheed's first jet-powered civil transport was the L-1011.

Wasnt exactly a fly away sucess for them was it though. Whilst it was arguably a safer aircraft, the versatility of the DC-10 as good as killed it as far as longeivity goes. Personally I dont mind as the thing was inefficient and ugly IMO  duck , and by the opinions of 2 ex tristar captains I know, a pig to land.

Besides my personal bias it is a major lesson from the Tristar that if you are a first time competitor in a new market, you don't have the loyalty of any customers in that market yet, and thus you need an absolute knockout of a product that satisfies requirements the customers diddnt even realise they had yet, all without overengineering or overpricing.
 
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:42 pm



Quoting TSS (Reply 7):
if Boeing might have run into a few less problems with the 787 if they had just built an experimental "proof of concept" plane to test some of the ideas put into use on the production 787. Computer models are great, but as Boeing has rather embarrassingly and expensively found out, there is no substitute for real-world, hands-on experience to verify that the computer models are correct.

Isn't that what they have done? The only problem is that Boeing promised final deliveries before their "beta release" aircraft were even built yet. This is an executive mistake, not an engineering mistake. They are building the 787 just like you say, validating with a test aircraft, then they will finalize production standard in 2010 (not this year), and those true production aircraft will probably be built after #20, much like the A380. The refinement process of the A + B models will be strikingly similar.
 
KELPkid
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:49 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
Quoting Thegeek (Reply 6):
Shouldn't they get into 6 abreast airliners first?

Why? Lockheed's first jet-powered civil transport was the L-1011.

Technically, no. It was the L-188 Electra, which had a disastrous introduction to service (airframes falling apart mid-air) due to a rather severe engineering oversight...

The problem on the Electra was fixed, but by then, the aircraft's reputation in the civil marked had been destroyed. Fortunately for Lockheed, though, it found its niche as a maritime submarine/reconissance patrol aircraft.
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rwessel
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 10:09 pm



Quoting KELPkid (Reply 13):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
Quoting Thegeek (Reply 6):
Shouldn't they get into 6 abreast airliners first?

Why? Lockheed's first jet-powered civil transport was the L-1011.

Technically, no. It was the L-188 Electra,

Errr... The Electra was a turboprop...
 
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 10:32 pm



Quoting Rwessel (Reply 14):

Errr... The Electra was a turboprop...

Is a turboprop engine not a jet engine swinging a prop?
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rwessel
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 20, 2009 10:53 pm



Quoting KELPkid (Reply 15):
Is a turboprop engine not a jet engine swinging a prop?

Not by any of the usual definitions. They're both turbines, of course, but the "jet" part is related to how the thrust is created.
 
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Fri Aug 21, 2009 4:41 am



Quoting PPVRA (Reply 5):
2. a market large enough to develop an aircraft for pygmies

Having endured the misery of flying as a passenger in a CRJ-200, I suspect Bombardier has long been operating under the assumption that such a market indeed exists.

2H4
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:34 pm



Quoting PPVRA (Reply 5):

1. Giant pilots, or

Maybe they're training elephants to fly.... Big grin  duck 
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Fri Aug 21, 2009 9:44 pm



Quoting Thegeek (Reply 6):
Shouldn't they get into 6 abreast airliners first?

The major predecessor of Bombardier, Canadair, did build a 6-abreast airliner, the CL-44, based on the Bristol Britannia but with R-R Tyne engines and numerous other changes, including a stretched fuselage. However, only a few were acquired for passenger service by Icelandair's predecessor, Loftleidir Icelandic Airways. The rest of the 39 CL-44s were built for several cargo carriers and the Royal Canadian Air Force.


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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Sat Aug 22, 2009 12:54 am

Of course they could design and build such aircraft. It's no more difficult than what they're doing now. You just have to up the scale a bit.

The bigger barrier to entry is more a question of why? The airline industry has long supported only two or three manufacturers at a time. As you get into the more specialized areas such as large widebodies you often only see one manufacturer as others have tried, and failed, to compete.
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Sat Aug 22, 2009 8:13 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):

Quoting Thegeek (Reply 6):
Shouldn't they get into 6 abreast airliners first?

Why? Lockheed's first jet-powered civil transport was the L-1011.

It's where the money is.
 
ElpinDAB
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Tue Aug 25, 2009 2:43 am

Alright, first, these manufacturers need to prove themselves with their latest aircraft. (Okay, well, Embraer has already done so.) But, Bombardier hasn't yet reached the point where their new airliner will face the manufacturing outsourcing struggles that Boeing has faced. In addition, the CSeries will utilize a new engine, the GTF. God forbid that anything bad happens with the engine, otherwise this potentially great aircraft could end up with a fate like the L-1011 and it's RR engine... Hopefully Bombardier has learned enough though, and will deliver their aircraft on-time with planned or better performance. I can only hope, as I'm a big CSeries fan. It's still a long road for Bombardier, but I hope they can succeed.


But, back on topic...
I almost think that a super-stretched CSeries could fill the 757's niche. With an uprated GTF, as rumored for a 737/A32X replacement, and a new wing, the CSeries could become a new long-haul narrowbody to replace the 757. Good field performance, an efficient climb to high altitude and cruise, combined with long range, this is all it would need. However, it wouldn't be able to complete the mission on just a stretched fuselage and the existing engine and wing, I would assume. I'd love to see a 190 seat stretched CSeries with a more powerful GTF, a wingspan that matched it's fuselage length (for a decent wing loading and aspect ratio for its mission, in addition to beauty), and a nice 4,000nm range for thin trans Atlantic routes, transcons, N. America-C. and S. America routes, and West Coast - Hawaii routes. This would seem like the most logical "next step" for Bombardier.


And don't forget about Mitsubishi too..their jet seems like a nice product, although the cockpit glass makes it look like a cheap Japanese car from the 1980's with an oversized, unneeded spoiler and some crappy body panels....basically riced out. I hope that it's better than this, but almost not, since I'd rather see the CSeries succeed.
 
GST
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:43 am



Quoting ElpinDAB (Reply 22):
Bombardier hasn't yet reached the point where their new airliner will face the manufacturing outsourcing struggles that Boeing has faced.

Though they have been manufacturing in this way for a significant time already, just not so much with composite aircraft parts.

Quoting ElpinDAB (Reply 22):
I almost think that a super-stretched CSeries could fill the 757's niche.

Not sure it will be soon, as the 75 is still strong, but that does look feasable and nice.

Quoting ElpinDAB (Reply 22):
And don't forget about Mitsubishi too..their jet seems like a nice product, although the cockpit glass makes it look like a cheap Japanese car from the 1980's with an oversized, unneeded spoiler and some crappy body panels....basically riced out. I hope that it's better than this, but almost not, since I'd rather see the CSeries succeed.

Not sure I agree with your analysis on the looks of the Mjet, but I'm of the opinion that the market will support both entries easily. I think both will be a sucess but Bombardier's entry moreso because they are a more established name with at least some customer loyalty.
 
ElpinDAB
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Wed Aug 26, 2009 2:22 am



Quoting GST (Reply 23):

Not sure I agree with your analysis on the looks of the Mjet, but I'm of the opinion that the market will support both entries easily. I think both will be a sucess but Bombardier's entry moreso because they are a more established name with at least some customer loyalty.

Yea, I was totally out of control  Silly I really don't have anything against the MJet, but I think it's cockpit windows should change...maybe the current design will change before production, and maybe it will look better in person, but style goes a long ways in aviation design, and I just think that the current cockpit glass ruins Mitsubishi's lovely design. I like everything else about it, and the long range models might even have a little more range than the longest range CSeries.

You're probably right that the market could support both though. Sukhoi's Superjet is in this range too though, so it will be a tight market. It will be interesting to see how Boeing and Airbus respond with their narrowbody replacements. I realize that there are alot of aging narrowbodies to be replaced, but this will be a saturated market that will soon be very competitive among the manufacturers.

It's going to be an interesting time when orders begin to pick up again!
 
GST
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:14 am

I just don't see the Superjet becoming a major competitor in this market unless its costing less than 2/3 of one of the others. Sukhoi and the other Russian and Eastern European manufacturers just don't have the market presence in Europe, Americas, Australasia, and (arguably) the Far East. The opposite is true of Bombardier.

Sukhoi will have difficulty selling to these markets for the simple reason that they would need to set up entirely new spare parts suppliers, the crews would have to retrain for yet another type of aircraft with yet another company ethos in its design, and there is yet more paperwork involved in procurement over yet more borders. I just don't see that an operator who currently operates Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and Bombardier aircraft, is going to add another manufacturer to the list, increasing the number of dealers they must go through to get parts, complicating training and maintenance, when one of the existing providers has a similar aircraft on the market and much of the current practices need not be changed. It is for this reason also that I do not see Bombardier breaking into the Eastern European and Russian markets any faster with the CSeries than they are already.

I have no doubt that Mitsubishi will make a success of their jet, as the company has a superb reputation as an engineering company making high quality products on time and on budget (well, near enough). It doesn't hurt that they already have an extremely effective global distribution network for their automotive products etc, and this need only minor adjustment to support their aircraft too. Okay, their previous airliner offering is a long while back, but it was a superb product, and that fact cant hurt them now.

Basically I do not see the CSeries competing directly with the Superjet, but I do see the MRJ competing directly against the CSeries, and possibly the Superjet too. I would like to be wrong about Sukhoi, how many people would have predicted Embraer's rise to glory just a few years ago?
 
rwessel
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Wed Aug 26, 2009 10:05 pm



Quoting GST (Reply 25):
I just don't see the Superjet becoming a major competitor in this market unless its costing less than 2/3 of one of the others. Sukhoi and the other Russian and Eastern European manufacturers just don't have the market presence in Europe, Americas, Australasia, and (arguably) the Far East. The opposite is true of Bombardier.

While I'm far from clear on the details, Boeing is supposed to be handling the marketting, sales and (after sale) support for the SSJ-100.
 
Tod
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:29 pm



Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
Looking at the fact, that Bombardier and Embraer has started to design jets that are close to a 737 size, could you see them designing a jet around a 787 or A350 XWB size? I know it would be some years from now, but could you see it happening?

To design a larger aircraft all they would need to do is hire the same folks that currently do it for Boeing and/or Airbus.

We do it for money and many of us are willing to work for just about anyone.
 
Tod
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Thu Aug 27, 2009 3:32 pm



Quoting GST (Reply 25):
I have no doubt that Mitsubishi will make a success of their jet,

The inside of the plane should be a good as any other modern jet airliner. They have subbed out payloads systems and intergation to Heath Tecna in Bellingham, WA.


Tod
 
britjap
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RE: Could Bombardier Or Embraer Design A Wide Body?

Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:59 pm



Quoting GST (Reply 25):
I have no doubt that Mitsubishi will make a success of their jet

 crossfingers  I really hope you're right. Mostly that's just dumb patriotism  Smile but I know a few guys working on this project and I hope it goes well for them. But...

Quoting GST (Reply 25):
the company has a superb reputation as an engineering company making high quality products on time and on budget

...I do have my fears. Being somewhat deliberately ambiguous here but from what I hear you can expect an announcement about such related things in the next couple of months.

Quoting GST (Reply 25):
extremely effective global distribution network for their automotive products

And don't forget that Mitsubishi Motors is not the same company as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. IMHO MHI/MAC undoubtedly have the engineering capability to make the MRJ a great little aircraft. But it is the aftersales & supply network that will give them problems as well as sales/marketing.

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