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Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:27 pm

With the economy the way it is, and airlines down sizing their a/c, you have to think, is there still chance for an A380 900 to be built? I would love to see this giant a/c on the runway ( mainly in CX, VS and EK color), but I know if their not a market for an A389, Airbus will not build it, so is there still chance we will is an A380 900?
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:56 pm

Yes, of course there is a chance. As long as there are routes to support it, the seat-mile costs of the aircraft are compelling.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Max Q
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:00 pm

I don't see why not, as the worldwide economy improves. Demand will come back, there will be a need for this Aircraft.
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PGNCS
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:37 pm

This is a 30 year program or so, and doesn't hinge exclusively on today's economy. With that in mind, I have no idea if it will happen or not, but it's certainly not impossible.
 
redflyer
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 12:33 am



Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
Yes, of course there is a chance. As long as there are routes to support it, the seat-mile costs of the aircraft are compelling.

So can we assume there are currently no routes to support it since Airbus hasn't launched the model? If some commentaries are to be believed (and I'm not saying they shouldn't), the development costs and most of the development cycle has already occurred on the A389 based on the development of the stillborn "F" model. So the question would be, what's keeping the plane from being built other than a sheer lack of demand for a plane that size?
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Max Q
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 12:50 am



Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 4):
So the question would be, what's keeping the plane from being built other than a sheer lack of demand for a plane that size

I think you answered your own question !
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Starlionblue
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 2:48 am

As Max Q says.

An investment is made based on the net present value of all known* projected returns from that investment. If the investment is not made, such as the 389 now, the net present value of known* projected returns are lower than the net present value of known* ones of other investments which can be made.** In other words airlines and Airbus think spending money on other things will give them more bang for the buck.

* Yes I harp on about "known" but there is no such thing as perfect information. For example foreseeing demand 10 years hence is tricky.

** Assuming rational and profit maximizing behavior from all parties.

[Edited 2009-08-30 20:08:36]
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
thegeek
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 3:41 am

Even in today's climate there are definitely a few routes that would benefit from this aircraft. OTOH, QF would like it for SYD-LAX, BA would like it for LHR-HKG. I'm sure that EK & CX would find some routes for it too. When the economy improves there will be more routes than at present.

The real question is: Are Airbus going to be able to charge enough of a premium for the A389 to justify it's development, and the possibility of it eating into A380 sales.
 
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747classic
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 6:21 am

In the future, after an economic revival, there will be certainly a market for the A389.
Also from an aesthetic point of view I would welcome the A389, because the present variant is to short, with over-sized wings. The balance between length and wingspan could be restored with the A389.
Operating a twin over the ocean, you're always one engine failure from a total emergency.
 
keesje
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:19 am



Quoting PGNCS (Reply 3):
This is a 30 year program or so, and doesn't hinge exclusively on today's economy.

 checkmark 

Many airlines have said they are waiting for it. It's a logical next phase. Further enhancements, newer engines etc. http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/3677047/
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Max Q
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 8:28 am

It's just a matter of time. A great shame that Boeing gave up on this market.
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Starlionblue
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:49 am



Quoting Max Q (Reply 10):
A great shame that Boeing gave up on this market.

It is indeed. It would have been interesting to see what they would have come up with. The NLA concept with the higher cockpit (than the 380) was quite neat.

However, the market isn't that large (compared to, say, the 320/737 market) and the investment per sold aircraft is quite high. So I guess B decided that their money was better spent elsewhere. See my post on investments above.  Wink
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
keesje
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:20 pm



Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 11):
Quoting Max Q (Reply 10):
A great shame that Boeing gave up on this market.

It is indeed.

I have the feeling Boeing will return to reclaim a part of the VLA market they dominated for 4 decades. (1970-2010). There is a rather big "niche" considering the 777-300ER and 747-8i won't live forever. Above a future heavier Boeing 787-10 / A350-1000 and under the A380 there is a gab IMO to big to be ignored. the 370-500 segement were all 747's operate.

A few yrs ago I slapped together a 2.5 engined Ecoliner with Henry Lam. Topics, videos and JPGs can be found with Google. Don't know how it would look but I feel/hope Boeing will step in..

http://www.kaktusdigital.com/images/Y3_takeoff.jpg
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SEPilot
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Aug 31, 2009 9:28 pm

If Airbus takes a cold-hearted business approach I cannot see how they can justify building it. It is not as if they were going to sell A389's where they would not otherwise sell A388's, and I doubt very much that Boeing is going to build a competitor anytime soon. Unless the economy recovers dramatically and air travel increases equally dramatically, I just don't see enough demand for it to justify the investment. If Airbus looks at total program return I think they will decide that, at this point, the money spent on the A389's development will not be recovered by any price premium that they would be able to get from it. The other thing they will have to consider is whether they can utilize the resources needed for the A389 more profitably elsewhere (such as the A320RS.) I think the answer will be that they can.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
keesje
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Tue Sep 01, 2009 8:15 am



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
If Airbus looks at total program return I think they will decide that, at this point, the money spent on the A389's development will not be recovered by any price premium that they would be able to get from it. The other thing they will have to consider is whether they can utilize the resources needed for the A389 more profitably elsewhere (such as the A320RS.) I think the answer will be that they can.

The a380 is a 40 yr program. "At this point" is of little influence. Airlines like Cathay, JAL and the Chinese carriers might order if a further enhanced bigger A380 is offered. CX said even said so. Some airlines might pay extra and switch to the -900.

Part of the A380 flight test program (e.g. heavy landings) was done as preparation for higher gross weight A380 variants like A380F and A380-900. Sure they wont launch it today. They'll also make sure to be ready when demand is there, not after.

WingedMigrator spend a night thinking a bit further then a -900 :



Airbus might be in discussions with the airlines on what would be the optimal lenght or of a A380-900. I think the A380 wings, landing gears and engines provide flexibility in this respect.

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:39 pm



Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
WingedMigrator spend a night thinking a bit further then a -900 :

There is no question that they can do it, and it will be a magnificent plane. The question will be does it make economic sense to do so. Yes, there are airlines that would buy it, but will they buy enough of them to make it worthwhile? Meanwhile, they will have no choice but to buy A388's.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
thegeek
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:17 am



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
It is not as if they were going to sell A389's where they would not otherwise sell A388's

That's your opinion, not a fact. Hasn't the CX CEO more or less stated that their not interested in the A388, but are in a A389, and especially the SUH version?

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 15):
The question will be does it make economic sense to do so. Yes, there are airlines that would buy it, but will they buy enough of them to make it worthwhile? Meanwhile, they will have no choice but to buy A388's.

They have choice. They can buy 77Ws, A3510s and theoretically they could buy 747-8s or A346s.
 
astuteman
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:39 am



Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 4):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 1):
Yes, of course there is a chance. As long as there are routes to support it, the seat-mile costs of the aircraft are compelling.

So can we assume there are currently no routes to support it since Airbus hasn't launched the model? If some commentaries are to be believed (and I'm not saying they shouldn't), the development costs and most of the development cycle has already occurred on the A389 based on the development of the stillborn "F" model

Like Boeing and the 787-10, I think Airbus has enough on its plate without committing to the A380-900, whatever the economics.
From a resource point of view alone, I can't see an A380-900 entering service before 2017 at the earliest.

I don't think the development costs "occurred" on the A380F, rather much of the enabling engineering was done during the A380F programme (e.g. refining the landing gear and wing, and control systems to accommodate 600 tonnes).

There is still a question of what the configuration of an A380-900 would be of course as well.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 15):
Yes, there are airlines that would buy it, but will they buy enough of them to make it worthwhile? Meanwhile, they will have no choice but to buy A388's.

I'll repeat my view that the A380-900 will occur when current A380-800 sales become opposed by more modern large twins to a degree that makes them unviable.

If that happens, I predict the A380-800 will grow some range and become (even) more of a niche aircraft (the 772LR equivalent of the A380 range), whilst the A380-900 becomes the mainstream model which DOES have the economics to mix it with the newer competitors.
i.e. at that point the A380-800 and A380-900 won't compete any more than the 773ER and 772LR do.

But I think we're between 8 and 10 years away from that process even beginning, and some 15 years+ away from it being established, if it happens.

Rgds
 
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:32 pm



Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
WingedMigrator spend a night thinking a bit further then a -900 :

Here is the original (not damaged by file compression artifacts)
Big version: Width: 800 Height: 800 File size: 148kb

(click to enlarge)

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
Airbus has enough on its plate without committing to the A380-900, whatever the economics.

 checkmark  Lack of an A389 does not necessarily indicate lack of a market for it. There are other factors to consider than ROI.
 
Ozair
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:11 am



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
But I think we're between 8 and 10 years away from that process even beginning, and some 15 years+ away from it being established, if it happens.

I think Airbus also might be concerned the answer to any A389 will be a blended wing design promising 15-20% greater efficiency.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 12):

A few yrs ago I slapped together a 2.5 engined Ecoliner with Henry Lam. Topics, videos and JPGs can be found with Google. Don't know how it would look but I feel/hope Boeing will step in..

Before even opening the thread I knew Keesje would be flogging the ecoliner  Wink
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:00 pm



Quoting Thegeek (Reply 16):
That's your opinion, not a fact. Hasn't the CX CEO more or less stated that their not interested in the A388, but are in a A389, and especially the SUH version?

I never intended that it be taken as fact; anything I post is my opinion unless clearly stated otherwise. And IMHO the CX CEO is trying to put pressure on Airbus to develop the A389; but if it doesn't appear I firmly believe he will relent and buy A388's. It would be silly for him to do anything else.

Quoting Thegeek (Reply 16):
They have choice. They can buy 77Ws, A3510s and theoretically they could buy 747-8s or A346s.

But if they have enough traffic to justify the A389 the other options offer significantly less capacity and higher CASM; it would be very shortsighted and a poor business decision to buy one of them instead of the A388.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
I'll repeat my view that the A380-900 will occur when current A380-800 sales become opposed by more modern large twins to a degree that makes them unviable.

If that happens, I predict the A380-800 will grow some range and become (even) more of a niche aircraft (the 772LR equivalent of the A380 range), whilst the A380-900 becomes the mainstream model which DOES have the economics to mix it with the newer competitors.

 checkmark 
This does make sense (hey, I AM agreeing with you about something to do with the A380's market potential-did the sun rise in the west this morning?) I had not thought of this possibility; I was thinking that the A388 would retain a significant CASM advantage over all smaller aircraft for the foreseeable future. But the 744 didn't; and it didn't take all that long for it to lose its economic advantage, and the A388 will last longer than that. At that point it would probably behoove Airbus to put a few billion into developing the A389 to save it.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:16 pm



Quoting Max Q (Reply 10):
It's just a matter of time. A great shame that Boeing gave up on this market.

It is to both Airbus' and Boeing's benefit that Boeing didn't bother. It saved Boeing a shedload of money and it gave Airbus a monopoly on the market which is beneficial to working towards recovering their costs.



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
If Airbus takes a cold-hearted business approach I cannot see how they can justify building it. It is not as if they were going to sell A389's where they would not otherwise sell A388's, and I doubt very much that Boeing is going to build a competitor anytime soon.

As Astuteman noted in Reply 17, eventually the benefits the A380-800 brings to airlines will be eroded by newer planes, even if they're smaller, just as the 747-400's market was eroded by the A340-600 and 777-300ER. At that point, a larger A380 model would restore those benefits and regenerate demand for the type.
 
keesje
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Fri Sep 04, 2009 9:34 pm

If Airbus builds a A380-900, part of the A380-800 customers will switch to -900s. Paying an additional fee to cover the additional costs. Happens a lot.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
thegeek
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Sun Sep 06, 2009 2:03 am



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 20):
But if they have enough traffic to justify the A389 the other options offer significantly less capacity and higher CASM; it would be very shortsighted and a poor business decision to buy one of them instead of the A388.

To the degree that this is true, shouldn't it give Airbus pricing power? They don't seem to have much of that, as Astuteman has pointed out in other threads, the per seat (list) purchase price is attractive.

The main time I see what you are suggesting not working is when an airline is looking at a small fleet (<10) of A380s. In that case it may be that only the A389's CASM advantage justifies the small fleet.

If they can charge another $50m for 50 aircraft, assuming that 50 A388s are converted to 50 A389s, that recovers $2.5billion, which should more or less recover the development cost. Of course, you would want to build as many A388s as you can before you finish development of the A389.

Of course, all this is academic while there's an order queue for A380s worth >4 years of production. Sure, some airlines have deferred, but most should eventually take the aircraft.
 
astuteman
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Sun Sep 06, 2009 8:32 am



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 20):
I was thinking that the A388 would retain a significant CASM advantage over all smaller aircraft for the foreseeable future.

 thumbsup 

Made my day, SEP.  biggrin 

The number of times I read on here that the A350-1000 will "kill" the A380...  faint 

I don't think it will, but at the same time I honestly think it will limit the economically viable routes for the A380 even more than the 773ER does.
The only saving grace for the A380 really is the A350-1000 is (or will be) less payload capable than the 773ER at most ranges (I believe)

Selfishly I say "Bring it on!". Competition improves the breed, and I'd personally LOVE to see A389's (maybe even A389SUH's) and LR A388's operating side-by-side around our skies.
It will be a criminal waste of built-in airframe potential if this doesn't happen.  yes 

Rgds
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:46 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 13):
If Airbus takes a cold-hearted business approach I cannot see how they can justify building it. It is not as if they were going to sell A389's where they would not otherwise sell A388's, and I doubt very much that Boeing is going to build a competitor anytime soon.

As Astuteman noted in Reply 17, eventually the benefits the A380-800 brings to airlines will be eroded by newer planes, even if they're smaller, just as the 747-400's market was eroded by the A340-600 and 777-300ER. At that point, a larger A380 model would restore those benefits and regenerate demand for the type.

Agreed.

I also think the number of routes that could support an A389 are MORE than the A388, because the CASM difference over the competing 77W etc is not so great as to justify the expenditure in many cases of getting the A388, but the CASM advantage of the A389 will be such that many more airlines find it more attractive because of its costs.

I read somewhere that Airbus were looking at a 34% capacity bump on the A388, for less than a 10% increase in fuel burn etc. I think you'll agree that this is remarkable.

I think airlines like PK, AI, BR, PH and others will find it much more attractive because of their comparatively low-yielding rear of cabins, but increasingly impressive offerings at the front. AI doing a once a day BOM/DEL - LHR with an A389 non-stop instead of a twice a day 77W would just save them untold millions.

MNL-LAX on Phillippines - they'd absolutely clean up with one daily A389 instead of two or more A343/744 etc.

Cutting frequency in favour of larger aircraft is the only way we are going to get past the hub congestion thing, whether our American friends like/believe it or not. The A389 will add further weight to this.

CX would buy them in a heartbeat. You'd better believe EK, EY and QR would be right in there at the front of the queue as well. I dare say SQ would buy a few for LHR-SIN-SYD, and QF would have them to LHR and LAX as well. BA would probably keep their A388s and add some A389s when they are launched. VS/AF/LH too. As said above - 2017/18 is a realistic timeframe for an A389 and we'll have seen ten years of A388 vs 77W and latterly A3510. I also expect the 2018 A388 to be a much more capable beastie than we are seeing now.

What would happen to the A388s we are seeing now? They would still have a CASM advantage over the 77W and A3510 but would be much, much cheaper to acquire second hand. Airlines like MS, TransAero, AV, TK, JJ, MX etc would all regard them with much more interest in 2018 than they do now, and whilst none require one now, arguably by 2018 all could possibly make an A388 work for them, as even then, there still wont be anything than can touch it for CASM.

For those that can afford it though, the A389 will be absolutely awesome. People are suggesting that in this current slump, aviation will never recover and anyone flying anything bigger than a 77W is automatically headed for bankruptcy. Well, these things are cyclical, and it will recover. Indeed, it will grow - the burgeoning middle class billions in India and China will see to that. Hubs will grow, and traffic will recover.

Judging the A380 by current markets is just insane. We will not see it come into its own properly and be the VLA par excellance for a few years yet. Have patience! The A389 will happen eventually.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
keesje
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Mon Sep 07, 2009 7:34 pm



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 25):
Judging the A380 by current markets is just insane.

 checkmark  Still some do: http://www.glgroup.com/News/Honey-Th...he-A380-Orderbook-Again-42987.html

I think if it's launched airlines like EK will convert some of their A380 orders/options.

In the news today, LH will put in 550 seats three class. A sign of times I think.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...fthansa-a380-nears-completion.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
rheinwaldner
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Tue Sep 08, 2009 2:15 pm



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 25):
Cutting frequency in favour of larger aircraft is the only way we are going to get past the hub congestion thing, whether our American friends like/believe it or not. The A389 will add further weight to this.

The trend on the market is at least partly coupled with the current state-off-the-art aircrafts. The 773ER was able to make it look as if there would be a consistent trend towards "more frequency over larger planes". Simply because it replaced 744's at several airlines/routes. I say to the largest part the winning efficiency was the determining factor and not the aircraft size. Airlines only adopted and increased frequency (please understand me right, of course double frequency is a good thing, especially if it comes with a plane that is more efficient too at the same time. But if it is a "either .. or" situation a large, efficient aircraft dictates which one wins: efficiency over frequency).

The pendulum will swing in the other direction with the A380 being the new efficiency leader. E.g. SQ said in public that the two 773ER flight to ZRH are currently not operated profitable and that they intend to cure this situation by deploying one A380 on the route. You will see this pattern more and more in the next years.

The A389 will support this business model even more distinct.

My summary goes like this:
If your competitor uses equipment which is 20% more expensive per seat you can undercut his prices so that he struggles to fill his much smaller capacity.

E.g. two airlines compete on a routes and have about the same prices and capacity. If one of them suddenly can cut the costs by 20% he can now lower his prices as much as he desires to fill his plane. It well could work to easily fill a A380 while the competitor is shocked by a decreasing load factor even on the smaller plane.

Efficient planes contribute the most to gain traffic share. The A380-airlines will give the other ones more and more a hard time (as the 773ER-airlines gave to the Jumbo operators).
 
thegeek
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:25 am

I keep hearing these two arguments: (a) smaller planes have better RASM and (b) bigger planes have better CASM.

The fact is that both are usually true. There is no one size fits all answer. That's why there is a place for RJs as well as A389s.
 
parapente
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:40 pm

This hit the TV and web today in the UK

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8243922.stm

This is really the wrong thread as it affects all aircraft. The spotlight and the heat will be on all aircraft re climate change.

If they can they will tax the hell out of air travel.

The only answer is to produce much more efficient aircraft - and there are only 2 ways to do this (practically).

One is really new and more efficient engines.For small aircraft (or even larger?) this is "Open Rotor" no doubt about it. Some people say that the public will think them old fasioned.I disagree - it's the opposite.They will feel good at travelling on something that is visably "Green".

The other of course is size.Less frequency / bigger aircraft. This is IMHO where the 389 will score.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:46 pm



Quoting Parapente (Reply 29):
One is really new and more efficient engines.For small aircraft (or even larger?) this is "Open Rotor" no doubt about it. Some people say that the public will think them old fasioned.I disagree - it's the opposite.They will feel good at travelling on something that is visably "Green".

I think that as usual the public will not know anything about the aircraft. 99.9% won't know if it has rotors or not until they see it. It won't affect the ticket buying decision.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:57 pm



Quoting Parapente (Reply 29):
The other of course is size.Less frequency / bigger aircraft. This is IMHO where the 389 will score.

Correctamundo.  Smile

Quoting Rheinwaldner (Reply 27):

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 25):
Cutting frequency in favour of larger aircraft is the only way we are going to get past the hub congestion thing, whether our American friends like/believe it or not. The A389 will add further weight to this.

The trend on the market is at least partly coupled with the current state-off-the-art aircrafts. The 773ER was able to make it look as if there would be a consistent trend towards "more frequency over larger planes". Simply because it replaced 744's at several airlines/routes. I say to the largest part the winning efficiency was the determining factor and not the aircraft size. Airlines only adopted and increased frequency (please understand me right, of course double frequency is a good thing, especially if it comes with a plane that is more efficient too at the same time. But if it is a "either .. or" situation a large, efficient aircraft dictates which one wins: efficiency over frequency).

The pendulum will swing in the other direction with the A380 being the new efficiency leader. E.g. SQ said in public that the two 773ER flight to ZRH are currently not operated profitable and that they intend to cure this situation by deploying one A380 on the route. You will see this pattern more and more in the next years.

The A389 will support this business model even more distinct.

My summary goes like this:
If your competitor uses equipment which is 20% more expensive per seat you can undercut his prices so that he struggles to fill his much smaller capacity.

E.g. two airlines compete on a routes and have about the same prices and capacity. If one of them suddenly can cut the costs by 20% he can now lower his prices as much as he desires to fill his plane. It well could work to easily fill a A380 while the competitor is shocked by a decreasing load factor even on the smaller plane.

Efficient planes contribute the most to gain traffic share. The A380-airlines will give the other ones more and more a hard time (as the 773ER-airlines gave to the Jumbo operators).

Good points - well made. I agree with what you say.

Quoting Thegeek (Reply 28):
I keep hearing these two arguments: (a) smaller planes have better RASM and (b) bigger planes have better CASM.

The fact is that both are usually true. There is no one size fits all answer. That's why there is a place for RJs as well as A389s.

True.

What the Cheerleaders and many of our American brothers fail to understand is that we are not advocating VLAs above all - and we all recognise the need to tailor capacity to demand. What you say is true, but many try to portray our views as dismissive of everything else - whereas we are merely stating that there IS a market for VLAs, it will get BIGGER and in years to come the A380 will come into its own in this niche. We are not advocating the scrapping of anything that is smaller in favour of bigger - bigger is not always better, but on some routes it is.

Think about this:

How large will the China/India - Europe/US market grow in the next 20 years. It already supports several 77W or bigger daily transPac - where will the growth go? Are we seriously thinking that airlines can add frequencies to cope?

Try LHR-SIN then. Likely to increase to three times a day A380 in the future (it is already two A380 and one 77W) - where will the growth go? You can't add practically add frequency, so you can only go one way. All the following can support an A389 NOW as they are served by multiple 772 or larger daily by one or more carriers.

LHR-SIN
LHR-DXB
LHR-DOH
LHR-AUH
LHR-LAX
LHR-JFK
LHR-SFO
LHR-ORD
LHR-MIA
LHR-PVG
LHR-PEK
LHR-DEL
LHR-BOM
LHR-SYD
LHR-MEL
LHR-HKG
LHR-NRT
LHR-YVR
LHR-YYZ
LHR-IAD
LHR-IAH
LHR-CPT
LHR-JNB

Do we think this list is going to grow or shrink by 2018?

Are we led to believe then that:

a) LHR is somehow a special case and is the only hub that is congested.
b) Air travel is fragmenting such that hubs are diminishing in importance.
c) The above list is going to shrink as demand for air travel shrinks.
d) No new citypair will come up to add to the list (KUL, BKK, GRU etc)
e) That the above routes are better served by smaller aircraft with more frequencies.
f) That there are no other citypairs in the world at this level of capacity/traffic.
g) That airlines will not consolidate and form "mega alliances" where capacity is better used, across the really competitive sectors.
h) That the A389 if it comes will be of the same generation of technology as the current A388.
i) That airlines will continue to fly low-density large twins around!

Do we really think air travel will be smaller in terms of demand than it is now by 2018, when we might see an A389?

I have yet to see any kind of convincing argument that suggests anything other than that air travel will recover, rebound, and grow rapidly once the current financial crisis is over.

As stated above - anyone judging the A380 on todays markets is a foolish man. Give it 20 years and then we'll see how it is doing, shall we?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
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Stitch
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RE: Is There Still A Chance For An A389?

Wed Sep 09, 2009 2:58 pm



Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
In the news today, LH will put in 550 seats three class. A sign of times I think.

One of LH's projected configurations was 549 seats at 12F / 100C / Y427 so I wonder if that is what they have chosen. It's still a bit high in terms of premium to non-premium seating (1 to 3.8), but it's far better than the ratio on their 744s (1 to 2.4) so I expect the A380s will find themselves on routes where premium cabin traffic has fallen hardest.

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