bmacleod
Topic Author
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Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

Trans-Atlantic 737 Routing New Norm?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 4:25 pm

With 737MAX having longer range this will likely mean more 737 U.S. - European routes, as 757s/767s are retired/converted to cargo.

I imagine there will still be some 777/767/787s flying North America - Europe but to a lesser extent as frequency will trump capacity.

Soon wide-body TATLs will be just a memory.....
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
eaa3
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Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:49 am

RE: Trans-Atlantic 737 Routing New Norm?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 4:52 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Thread starter):
With 737MAX having longer range this will likely mean more 737 U.S. - European routes, as 757s/767s are retired/converted to cargo.

This is unlikely because of the fact that the B737MAX will need a very long runway (over 10,000 ft.) to take off at MTOW. This makes the aircraft an unlikely contender on the North Atlantic because there are not many smaller airports that have really long runways.
 
Fabo
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RE: Trans-Atlantic 737 Routing New Norm?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 5:11 pm

737, even MAX, will still only be good for northeastern US/western Europe. There is more to transat then that. + you also can not keep adding frequency ad infinium. There is a point when it simply is not worth anymore.
The light at the end of tunnel turn out to be a lighted sing saying NO EXIT
 
roseflyer
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RE: Trans-Atlantic 737 Routing New Norm?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 5:16 pm

The chance of seeing the 737MAX show up in Ireland and the UK is a definite possibility from the US east coast.

The MAX will not have the range to make LHR or mainland Europe with a full load. Airlines are pushing Boeing on the MAX and Airbus on the NEO to go lighter and reduce range. The average flight of a 737NG or A320 is about 800 miles. Pushing the range from 2500 to 3000 miles might sell a few airplanes, but it makes the 800 mile route which is the core of the market suffer since the airplane is too heavy.

Also, the 757 has grown on transatlantic routes, but it still is in the minority. The 767 is the most common transatlantic airplane according to a recent thread. The A330 and 777 are close behind. The majority of transatlantic 757 flying is by one airline.

I would expect the 787 to become the most popular plane on transatlantic routes in 10-15 years.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
bmacleod
Topic Author
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Trans-Atlantic 737MAX Routing Possible?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:01 pm

Sorry for my earlier post; I should have been more specific.

I was referring to Northeast U.S. to Western Europe on higher frequency routings that are light on cargo.

Of course routes from Southwest and Western U.S. needs at least A330/767/787s to fly to Europe...

[Edited 2012-09-17 11:13:19]
"What good are wings without the courage to fly?" - Atticus
 
roseflyer
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Joined: Fri Feb 13, 2004 9:34 am

RE: Trans-Atlantic 737 Routing New Norm?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 6:54 pm

Quoting bmacleod (Reply 4):

I was referring to Northeast U.S. to Western Europe on higher frequency routings that are light on cargo.

Of course routes from Southwest and Western U.S. needs at least A330/767/787s to fly to Europe...

I think airports like BOS, BDL, SNN, DUB, BFS, EDI, NCL, MAN, etc need narrowbodies because the markets are thinner. Airports in the UK outside of London weren't getting any service to the US other than some minimal traffic at MAN.

However, I don't think routes like LHR, CDG, AMS, BRU, FRA etc will go heavily in favor of 737s. They don't have the range, and widebodies are more efficient overall. I think 4 daily 757s EWR-LHR is still an anomaly. I would expect UA to eventually consolidate the number of internationally configured airplanes and I don't see the 737 MAX as a major international player outside of the UK potential for them.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
eaa3
Posts: 831
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:49 am

RE: Trans-Atlantic 737 Routing New Norm?

Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:13 pm

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 5):
I think airports like BOS, BDL, SNN, DUB, BFS, EDI, NCL, MAN, etc need narrowbodies because the markets are thinner. Airports in the UK outside of London weren't getting any service to the US other than some minimal traffic at MAN.

It seems quite obvious that the B737-8 and -9 are useless at these airports and for trans-Atlantic flight.

I've compiled the longest runways at these airports:

BOS: 10,083 ft.
BDL: 9,510 ft.
SNN: 10,495 ft.
DUB: 8,652 ft.
BFS: 9,121 ft.
EDI: 8,386 ft.
NCL: 7,641 ft.
MAN: 10,007 ft.
KEF: 10,056 ft.

Now according to Air Insight:

"As an example, according to Boeing, a B737-8MAX will be unable to take off from Minneapolis at MTOW. Minneapolis is at 800 ft but its longest runway is 11,000 ft. This makes you wonder about the -9MAX. Will it need 11-12,000+ ft at sea level? The -900ER already needs almost 10,000ft at sea level on a standard day.”"

This means that the B737-8 and -9 won't be able to take off at any of these airports at Maximum takeoff weight. MTOW is pretty much a given for a trans-Atlantic flight.

Therefore it seems evident that the B737MAX (apart perhaps from the -7) are useless on the North-Atlantic. The A320NEO might however be useful however.

See:
Questionable B737MAX Field Performance (by eaa3 Aug 22 2012 in Tech Ops)

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