LAXdude1023
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IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:55 pm

Since it seems like the popular thing to do, lets give it a shot.

What Im hoping (and I honestly dont have very high hopes for it) is that we can keep it somewhat realistic yet detailed.

Here is how I assess our current situation:

In 2017:

-The effects of Harvey. In my view, it was no doomsday scenario for Houston aviation but we did lose a couple of months of solid revenue for the carriers. I know from discussions with people at BR and CA, that they struggled BIG TIME from August to November as a result of Harvey.
-The re-banking of IAH. What effects will it have for UA, the size of the jets flying to specific markets, frequency, and will it open up new opportunities?
-The 787. Other than a one off like IAH-SYD, I really dont see it coming back. UA wouldnt have gone through all the trouble to shift everything to DC only to turn around and open a bunch of new 787 route from IAH.

New Route Opportunities - some of these are more feasible than others so bear that in mind. Some are real long shots:

-PVG - this is a BIG if though. Right now, either UA/MU/CA would have to sacrifice other frequencies in other markets or a carrier like AA would have to reduce a route like DFW/ORD/LAX-PVG. There were talks that MU might reduce ORD/HNL by a couple of frequencies a piece to open up IAH, but that has gone nowhere as of yet. IAH-PVG, nonetheless, is a big market.
-CLO/MDE - with the upcoming AV/UA JV, I think its totally realistic that one or both could come online.
-GYE - This seems to be another hole in the network. CO flew it years ago, but I think it could be worth another try.
-GSO/DAY - These are the two biggest holes in UA's domestic route network from IAH. They really should be flown.
-MSN/GJT/RNO/FSD/CID - These are far less likely, but all formerly flown. Maybe the new banks will allow one or two to come back.

Routes at risk:

-Smaller Mexican Destinations - UA doesnt seem to be as invested in smaller Mexican destinations as CO was. They seem to be heavily entrenched in massive O&D markets like MEX and MTY.
-MUC - I see UA/LH going one way or the other with this. They could either make it year round or they could cut it all together. I just cannot see what it brings to the table that FRA doesnt. It certainly isnt O&D.
-YEG - This one lives and dies by oil. If oil can maintain what it has now, it should be fine. If it dips again, I could see it being done away with.

More far fetched scenarios:

-UA partners with a prop carrier to bring back some destinations it gave up in Texas. Unlikely since AA is so dominant in small Texas cities, UA lost their chance.
-LX comes to town. Unlikely since they seem to overwhelmingly favor financial markets and Houston isnt one.
-SN comes to town. Unlikely since they are already bleeding.
-OZ comes to town. Unlikely as they are very conservative and with KE's failure at IAH, that may serve as a deterrent.

Anyway, thoughts welcome. Southwest isnt as much on my radar so I dont really have much to add about them.
Last edited by SQ22 on Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title updated
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ual763
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:01 am

Honestly, I think MUC has a ton of O&D. Probably a lot more so than FRA. FRA is huge for connecting flights to elsewhere in Europe via Lufthansa. FRA does seem to have higher business O&D though. This is the economic center of Germany. But MUC remains the cultural capitol, and gateway to Bavaria and the Alps.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:09 am

ual763 wrote:
Honestly, I think MUC has a ton of O&D. Probably a lot more so than FRA. FRA is huge for connecting flights to elsewhere in Europe via Lufthansa. FRA does seem to have higher business O&D though. This is the economic center of Germany. But MUC remains the cultural capitol, and gateway to Bavaria and the Alps.


Not from IAH it doesnt. IAH-MUC isnt a big local market at all. Thats somewhat out of character for UA since IAH-LHR/AMS are O&D giants and FRA not only has a good amount of O&D but also a massive hub on either end.
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TWA772LR
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:18 am

GYE may come back as oil is steadily rising; and since Canada is the USs largest foreign oil supplier YEG shouldn't be in any trouble. I'm also hoping ANC returns.

UA bringing prop jobs for intra-Texas and other regional routes is a pipe dream of mine, as well as IAH-HKG. I'm hoping those rumors of Cathay ditching oneworld for Star come true so that can happen.

Is there any new word on the Terminal D renovation? It should've started this month but I haven't been able to get over there to see if anything has happened.

My last pipedream is for WN to return to IAH In any fashion. The northern Houston suburbs have grown immensely since they pulled out and can definately use a more convenient connection to cities like Dallas and Chicago than making the trek down to Hobby.
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TWA772LR
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:21 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
ual763 wrote:
Honestly, I think MUC has a ton of O&D. Probably a lot more so than FRA. FRA is huge for connecting flights to elsewhere in Europe via Lufthansa. FRA does seem to have higher business O&D though. This is the economic center of Germany. But MUC remains the cultural capitol, and gateway to Bavaria and the Alps.


Not from IAH it doesnt. IAH-MUC isnt a big local market at all. Thats somewhat out of character for UA since IAH-LHR/AMS are O&D giants and FRA not only has a good amount of O&D but also a massive hub on either end.

IAH-MUC are both massive hubs and IAH still serves a considerable amount of cities that the other hubs don't so those other cities O&D's add up too.
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AVENSAB727
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:38 am

What about Air India, Didn’ t they say they were looking into IAH this year?
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jph7291
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:41 am

I echo UA IAH-DAY, a significant hole on both ends. I for one would benefit. However, I also enjoy the multiple, well-timed (and all two-class!) UA Express flights from IAH-CVG, which is no doubt at least partially supported by the lack of DAY.

Would love to see UA IAH-CDG.
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Zidane
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:03 am

I'd love to see UA try IAH-UVF. Will certainly compliment their EWR and ORD service.
 
jplatts
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:05 am

The DOT Domestic Airline Consumer Airfare Report is showing demand for travel from ONT to destinations that do not currently have any nonstop service from ONT, including to HOU, and there are a lot of passengers who fly to destinations not currently served nonstop from ONT with a connection. ONT currently has no nonstop service to IAH or HOU on any airline, but Southwest could add nonstop service from ONT to HOU along with MCI, STL, BNA, and BWI, as these are some of the top destinations traveled to from ONT that do not have any nonstop service from ONT.
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:30 am

IAH and HOU have both seemed to recovered from Harvey. I also found it kind of odd that in the middle of the hurricane or so UA announces IAH-SYD. Still an nice route though. If UA didn't cut IAH-LOS, IAH would have service to all six continents!

I have an question about the Houston Express IAH-LAD flight. I think I recall hearing it was open to the public, yet I can't find a proper link to book it. Not that I would anyways, but would I be able to book it without being involved in the oil industry? It seems like a nice route to fly though.
 
BreezyIAH
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:35 am

Late afternoon/early evening usually means a full international terminal...if someone new started int'l long haul would there be room? Or would they have to settle for a less optimal time slot?
 
dfwjim1
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:35 am

Surprised that UA does not fly IAH-Reno.
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:40 am

WTA in Houston books the SonAir tickets. You would have to call them, but it is available for public sale, thus in January IAH will have service to all six inhabited continents (not considering "Oceania" and Auckland a continent in the strict US model). Friends who have flown them love it and have said they think their employers paid around $5k one-way.
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jplatts
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:20 am

Southwest has room to further expand both domestically and internationally at HOU, and Southwest has been gradually expanding its domestic and international operations at HOU. Southwest has already announced plans to serve two additional domestic destinations (MKE and SJC) from HOU starting in Spring 2018 and one additional international destination (GCM) nonstop from HOU starting in Summer 2018.

Southwest does not currently serve MSP, DTW, CVG, and CLE nonstop from HOU, but Southwest could add nonstop service from HOU to these 4 destinations in the Midwest. Southwest would be able to connect passengers going to PVR and SJD from these 4 destinations through HOU if Southwest adds nonstop service to these 4 destinations from HOU, and Southwest does not currently serve PVR and SJD nonstop from MDW. In addition, Southwest would also be able to connect passengers going to AUS, SAT, CRP, HRL, MAF, and ELP from these 4 destinations through HOU if Southwest adds nonstop service to these 4 destinations from HOU. Southwest has also recently stated that it is actually considering adding nonstop service from HOU to CLE.

SMF is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that is not served nonstop by Southwest out of HOU, but Southwest has recently been expanding at SMF with plans to start nonstop service from SMF to AUS, MSY, MCO, SJD, and STL starting in Spring 2018. Sacramento is also one of the few cities (along with Albuquerque, Kansas City, Lubbock, Midland/Odessa, Nashville, and St. Louis) where SWA has over 50% market share. Southwest would also be able to connect passengers traveling to international destinations in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean and domestic destinations in the Southeastern U.S. from SMF through HOU if Southwest adds SMF-HOU nonstop service.

There are also three destinations in the Caribbean (PUJ, NAS, and PLS) that are already served by Southwest that do not currently have nonstop service to HOU, but Southwest could add nonstop service to these three Caribbean destinations from HOU.

My predictions for WN expansion at HOU include:
  • New nonstop service from HOU to SMF, ONT, MSP, DTW, CVG, and CLE
  • Extension of HOU-SEA, HOU-PDX, and HOU-CMH seasonal nonstop service to daily year-round nonstop service
  • Revival of HOU-EWR nonstop service if additional HOU-NYC nonstop service is needed since Southwest doesn't have enough slots to add additional HOU-LGA nonstop service beyond the 2 existing HOU-LGA daily nonstops and the already announced 3rd HOU-LGA daily nonstop starting in June 2018
  • Revival of HOU-PHL nonstop service since PHL is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that doesn't currently have any nonstop service from HOU
  • New international nonstop service from HOU to PUJ, NAS, and PLS
  • Expansion to new destinations in Central America, South America, and the Eastern Caribbean that are not currently served from WN along with nonstop service from HOU to these new destinations
 
flyguy84
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:35 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
Surprised that UA does not fly IAH-Reno.

It’s seasonal and currently operating once daily.
 
Jshank83
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:04 am

jplatts wrote:

My predictions for WN expansion at HOU include:
  • New nonstop service from HOU to SMF, ONT, MSP, DTW, CVG, and CLE
  • Extension of HOU-SEA, HOU-PDX, and HOU-CMH seasonal nonstop service to daily year-round nonstop service
  • Revival of HOU-EWR nonstop service if additional HOU-NYC nonstop service is needed since Southwest doesn't have enough slots to add additional HOU-LGA nonstop service beyond the 2 existing HOU-LGA daily nonstops and the already announced 3rd HOU-LGA daily nonstop starting in June 2018
  • Revival of HOU-PHL nonstop service since PHL is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that doesn't currently have any nonstop service from HOU
  • New international nonstop service from HOU to PUJ, NAS, and PLS
  • Expansion to new destinations in Central America, South America, and the Eastern Caribbean that are not currently served from WN along with nonstop service from HOU to these new destinations


How long a time period are we talking here? 2018? 5 years? 10 years?
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread

Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:44 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
jplatts wrote:

My predictions for WN expansion at HOU include:
  • New nonstop service from HOU to SMF, ONT, MSP, DTW, CVG, and CLE
  • Extension of HOU-SEA, HOU-PDX, and HOU-CMH seasonal nonstop service to daily year-round nonstop service
  • Revival of HOU-EWR nonstop service if additional HOU-NYC nonstop service is needed since Southwest doesn't have enough slots to add additional HOU-LGA nonstop service beyond the 2 existing HOU-LGA daily nonstops and the already announced 3rd HOU-LGA daily nonstop starting in June 2018
  • Revival of HOU-PHL nonstop service since PHL is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that doesn't currently have any nonstop service from HOU
  • New international nonstop service from HOU to PUJ, NAS, and PLS
  • Expansion to new destinations in Central America, South America, and the Eastern Caribbean that are not currently served from WN along with nonstop service from HOU to these new destinations


How long a time period are we talking here? 2018? 5 years? 10 years?


I expect Southwest to be announcing new domestic nonstop routes from HOU to existing SWA destinations in California and the Midwest that do not currently have nonstop service from HOU within the next 2 to 3 years, with some of these new nonstop route announcements being made in 2018. In addition, Southwest wants to expand its international operations, and I expect Southwest to be announcing new nonstop service from HOU to PUJ in 2018 and to NAS and PLS in the near future.

Southwest could bring back HOU-PHL nonstop service within the next 2 to 3 years since PHL is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that is not currently served nonstop from HOU, since there is still demand for HOU-PHL flights even with UA, AA, and F9 all serving PHL nonstop from IAH, since Southwest has been gradually expanding its domestic operations at HOU, and since Southwest would now be able to connect passengers going from PHL to international destinations through HOU if it brings back HOU-PHL nonstop service.

I expect Southwest to add nonstop service to new international destinations in Central America, South America, and the Eastern Caribbean from HOU in the next 5 to 10 years since Southwest had previously stated that it wants to expand its international operations, since Southwest wants to use HOU as one of its international gateways, and since Southwest is considering going to additional destinations in Central America, South America, and the Caribbean.
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:15 pm

Thanks for your summary, LAXDude.
In addition to what you talked about, does anyone with knowledge of Air Canada see them adding a year round IAH-YVR flight? AC operates a growing Asian hub in YVR with some unique destinations not accessible from YYZ. Except in the high summer months, UA flight or flights to YVR are poorly timed to link up to AC's Asian connections. This fall AC started DFW-YVR. I think it would make sense to them to link IAH, a Star hub with their YVR operations.
.
I agree that UA seems less enthused about the smaller Mexican airports. It's a bit sad really, since they provide good feed though IAH connections to the rest of the US. My anecdotal experiences are that many Mexicans living in these cities don't like to fly AM with a connection in MEX to get to the US, and are pretty loyal to UA. I do think that we will have to see how the NAFTA negotiations turn out this year. So far, it's not positive, and the peso has sunk against the dollar, which will mean less Mexican originating traffic in the first quarter, since UA POS out of Mexico is priced in US dollars.
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:59 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:
I agree that UA seems less enthused about the smaller Mexican airports. It's a bit sad really, since they provide good feed though IAH connections to the rest of the US. My anecdotal experiences are that many Mexicans living in these cities don't like to fly AM with a connection in MEX to get to the US, and are pretty loyal to UA. I do think that we will have to see how the NAFTA negotiations turn out this year. So far, it's not positive, and the peso has sunk against the dollar, which will mean less Mexican originating traffic in the first quarter, since UA POS out of Mexico is priced in US dollars.


Southwest also has nonstop service from HOU to 4 Mexican destinations (SJD, PVR, MEX, and CUN), and Aeromexico, Interjet, Spirit, VivaAerobus, and Volaris all also have nonstop service to Mexican destinations from IAH. Southwest could add nonstop service from HOU to additional Mexican destinations since it wants to further expand its international operations and since there are destinations in Mexico that are not currently served by SWA that SWA could serve in the future.

On the other hand, there are some smaller markets in Mexico where nonstop regional jet service to IAH on United Express is a better fit than mainline service to IAH on UA or mainline service to IAH/HOU on LCCs. In addition, there is also nonstop service from IAH to international destinations in Canada, China, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan by UA's Star Alliance partners. UA also serves destinations in the United States that are not served by Southwest and Spirit, and there are also SWA destinations in the contiguous U.S. that have nonstop service to IAH on UA but no nonstop service to HOU on SWA.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:06 pm

Looks like the discussion is off to a good start. In reading through the comments Ill add my responses below:

IAH-ANC is coming back for about 10 weeks in the summer.

WN won't be going back to IAH. Id say the odds a quite slim.

Same with IAH-HKG, however if CX does by some miracle join Star, then it could happen. Short of that, it won't.

Regarding IAH-MUC, I do honestly believe that route would be better served via ZRH/BRU, however UA doesn't agree with me. My sources have said that there is a very good chance MUC will go year round again.

AI is one of those that doesn't make any sense from a financial stand point. However, they don't seem to care about losing money. Almost none of their North American routes make a dime. So if its more about letting the Indian government pick up the tab, why not DEL-IAH? However, if their concern is making money, they'd not only be advised to not expand, but to cut routes.

Regarding DAY/GSO, it makes no sense whatsoever to me those routes aren't flown from IAH.

Regarding IAH-CDG, this route was never actually a slam dunk for UA/CO. When CO and AF were partners it squeezed a profit but was NEVER a giant cash cow like IAH-LON/AMS were/are for UA/CO. Its not because the market is small, IAH-CDG is actually about 120 PDEW. However, AF has the Schlumburger contract and thats the lions share of the F/J traffic. UA/CO had a hard time competing. That said, I really don't see why UA couldn't do it seasonally.

Regarding ONT, I was very surprised UA couldn't make it work. I get it that the IE isn't where the money in the LA area is, but the O&D was there. I think there is a higher chance WN will pick it up from HOU.

Regarding YVR, Im really surprised there is only one flight a day between the two year round given the Star Alliance ties. That said I don't know if IAH-YVR has the legs for a CR7 like it does for DFW. Also, it should be noted that DFW-YVR is a larger O&D market than IAH-YVR. DFW-YVR is about 80 PDEW and IAH-YVR is about 50 PDEW. Still, it would be great to have a connection to YVR's Asia network. The current UA flight is mainly timed to carry Canadians to Central America and Mexico.

Regarding new WN destinations, it has to be looked at realistically. WN isn't going to expand into Central American ethnic markets IMO. NK tried it from IAH and only SAP remains. Everything else was cut and moved to FLL. However, I can see some more international destinations from HOU, but I think they will be leisure oriented. As far as domestic destinations, its not good to compare destination lists between IAH and HOU and think that if it works from IAH it will work for HOU. I can see some expansion, but before we start thinking about SMF, CLE, CVG, etc. they really need to make destinations like SEA/PDX work year round. If they can't do that, I don't have faith in the other smaller destinations.
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jplatts
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:22 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Regarding new WN destinations, it has to be looked at realistically. WN isn't going to expand into Central American ethnic markets IMO. NK tried it from IAH and only SAP remains. Everything else was cut and moved to FLL. However, I can see some more international destinations from HOU, but I think they will be leisure oriented. As far as domestic destinations, its not good to compare destination lists between IAH and HOU and think that if it works from IAH it will work for HOU. I can see some expansion, but before we start thinking about SMF, CLE, CVG, etc. they really need to make destinations like SEA/PDX work year round. If they can't do that, I don't have faith in the other smaller destinations.


There is travel to both SEA and PDX from HOU (and vice versa) during the off-season when Southwest isn't operating the SEA-HOU and PDX-HOU seasonal nonstop service, and Southwest can probably make year-round HOU-SEA and HOU-PDX nonstop service work. In addition, Southwest can also connect passengers to SWA destinations in South Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean from SEA and PDX through HOU when it is operating the HOU-SEA and HOU-PDX nonstop service.

SMF will be the largest SWA station without nonstop service to HOU after Southwest starts HOU-SJC nonstop service on April 8, 2018. SMF serves the Sacramento Metropolitan Area, which has a population of over 2 million people, and the population of the city of Sacramento is around 500,000 people. Southwest has also served SMF for over 26 years, and SMF is one of the top destinations traveled to from HOU that is not served nonstop from HOU. There are several major differences between SMF and SEA/PDX, including no legacy carrier hub at SMF, no AS hub at SMF, no ULCC presence at SMF, AS having hubs at both SEA and PDX, both F9 and NK at both SEA and PDX, DL hub in SEA, and SMF being a much bigger SWA station than SEA or PDX. Due to these major differences between SMF and SEA/PDX, Southwest can probably make HOU-SMF nonstop service work, even without extending HOU-SEA and HOU-PDX nonstop service to year-round.

Frontier has discontinued CVG-IAH nonstop service, but Southwest might be able to make CVG-HOU nonstop service work because Southwest would be able to connect passengers going from CVG to AUS, SAT, CRP, HRL, MAF, and ELP in Texas plus PVR and SJD in Mexico through HOU if it adds CVG-HOU nonstop service. In addition, Delta used to serve HOU nonstop from CVG prior to discontinuing the HOU-CVG nonstop service in late 2004. There is also travel to CVG from HOU on AA through DFW, DL through ATL, and WN through MDW, despite CVG not currently being served nonstop from HOU.

There was an article titled "Southwest Airlines continues slow growth at Cleveland Hopkins, with Milwaukee flight and more to come" published on October 31, 2017 which stated that Southwest is considering adding nonstop service to CLE from HOU in the future, and that article can be found at http://www.cleveland.com/travel/index.ssf/2017/10/whats_next_for_cleveland_hopki.html.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 12:33 am

I don't see UA liking the option of of sendin Asia-bound pax over YVR on AC in lieu of SFO, which actually has a better portfolio of TPAC flights save for BNE, MEL (UA can flow them over LAX, and UA could probably pull off SFO-BNE/MEL), and DEL (UA can flow IAH pax over EWR).

If the Icelandic carriers were to looK at Houston, my guess is FI would be the better-suited airline. They have a true premium service and Houston is a very high yielding destination. And sense millenials are starting to make money they are travelling more often and would love a low cost alternative to Europe.

With UA investing in Avianca, who is in turn investing in Aeromar, I'd like to see Aeromar operate IAH to small Mexican cities that UA no longer operates to or even just the large cities if only for spotting diversity with ATRs.
"It's not getting to the land of the nonrev that's the problem, it's getting back." ~~Captain Hector Barbossa
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drerx7
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:17 am

Regarding Iceland...I can't see 3 carriers operating at DFW... my guess is FI pulls out and tries IAH.
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:14 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Looks like the discussion is off to a good start. In reading through the comments Ill add my responses below:

IAH-ANC is coming back for about 10 weeks in the summer.

WN won't be going back to IAH. Id say the odds a quite slim.

Same with IAH-HKG, however if CX does by some miracle join Star, then it could happen. Short of that, it won't.

Regarding IAH-MUC, I do honestly believe that route would be better served via ZRH/BRU, however UA doesn't agree with me. My sources have said that there is a very good chance MUC will go year round again.

AI is one of those that doesn't make any sense from a financial stand point. However, they don't seem to care about losing money. Almost none of their North American routes make a dime. So if its more about letting the Indian government pick up the tab, why not DEL-IAH? However, if their concern is making money, they'd not only be advised to not expand, but to cut routes.

Regarding DAY/GSO, it makes no sense whatsoever to me those routes aren't flown from IAH.

Regarding IAH-CDG, this route was never actually a slam dunk for UA/CO. When CO and AF were partners it squeezed a profit but was NEVER a giant cash cow like IAH-LON/AMS were/are for UA/CO. Its not because the market is small, IAH-CDG is actually about 120 PDEW. However, AF has the Schlumburger contract and thats the lions share of the F/J traffic. UA/CO had a hard time competing. That said, I really don't see why UA couldn't do it seasonally.

Regarding ONT, I was very surprised UA couldn't make it work. I get it that the IE isn't where the money in the LA area is, but the O&D was there. I think there is a higher chance WN will pick it up from HOU.

Regarding YVR, Im really surprised there is only one flight a day between the two year round given the Star Alliance ties. That said I don't know if IAH-YVR has the legs for a CR7 like it does for DFW. Also, it should be noted that DFW-YVR is a larger O&D market than IAH-YVR. DFW-YVR is about 80 PDEW and IAH-YVR is about 50 PDEW. Still, it would be great to have a connection to YVR's Asia network. The current UA flight is mainly timed to carry Canadians to Central America and Mexico.

Regarding new WN destinations, it has to be looked at realistically. WN isn't going to expand into Central American ethnic markets IMO. NK tried it from IAH and only SAP remains. Everything else was cut and moved to FLL. However, I can see some more international destinations from HOU, but I think they will be leisure oriented. As far as domestic destinations, its not good to compare destination lists between IAH and HOU and think that if it works from IAH it will work for HOU. I can see some expansion, but before we start thinking about SMF, CLE, CVG, etc. they really need to make destinations like SEA/PDX work year round. If they can't do that, I don't have faith in the other smaller destinations.



IAH is better off with FCO, than CDG. CDG operated with A332 most of time now, before it was a 777-200/300. Now just A332, regards to contracts, I am sure they have Engie, Total as well.
 
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drerx7
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:41 am

The 332 is the usual seasonal sub...the 777 is for high season.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:05 pm

LH658 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Looks like the discussion is off to a good start. In reading through the comments Ill add my responses below:

IAH-ANC is coming back for about 10 weeks in the summer.

WN won't be going back to IAH. Id say the odds a quite slim.

Same with IAH-HKG, however if CX does by some miracle join Star, then it could happen. Short of that, it won't.

Regarding IAH-MUC, I do honestly believe that route would be better served via ZRH/BRU, however UA doesn't agree with me. My sources have said that there is a very good chance MUC will go year round again.

AI is one of those that doesn't make any sense from a financial stand point. However, they don't seem to care about losing money. Almost none of their North American routes make a dime. So if its more about letting the Indian government pick up the tab, why not DEL-IAH? However, if their concern is making money, they'd not only be advised to not expand, but to cut routes.

Regarding DAY/GSO, it makes no sense whatsoever to me those routes aren't flown from IAH.

Regarding IAH-CDG, this route was never actually a slam dunk for UA/CO. When CO and AF were partners it squeezed a profit but was NEVER a giant cash cow like IAH-LON/AMS were/are for UA/CO. Its not because the market is small, IAH-CDG is actually about 120 PDEW. However, AF has the Schlumburger contract and thats the lions share of the F/J traffic. UA/CO had a hard time competing. That said, I really don't see why UA couldn't do it seasonally.

Regarding ONT, I was very surprised UA couldn't make it work. I get it that the IE isn't where the money in the LA area is, but the O&D was there. I think there is a higher chance WN will pick it up from HOU.

Regarding YVR, Im really surprised there is only one flight a day between the two year round given the Star Alliance ties. That said I don't know if IAH-YVR has the legs for a CR7 like it does for DFW. Also, it should be noted that DFW-YVR is a larger O&D market than IAH-YVR. DFW-YVR is about 80 PDEW and IAH-YVR is about 50 PDEW. Still, it would be great to have a connection to YVR's Asia network. The current UA flight is mainly timed to carry Canadians to Central America and Mexico.

Regarding new WN destinations, it has to be looked at realistically. WN isn't going to expand into Central American ethnic markets IMO. NK tried it from IAH and only SAP remains. Everything else was cut and moved to FLL. However, I can see some more international destinations from HOU, but I think they will be leisure oriented. As far as domestic destinations, its not good to compare destination lists between IAH and HOU and think that if it works from IAH it will work for HOU. I can see some expansion, but before we start thinking about SMF, CLE, CVG, etc. they really need to make destinations like SEA/PDX work year round. If they can't do that, I don't have faith in the other smaller destinations.



IAH is better off with FCO, than CDG. CDG operated with A332 most of time now, before it was a 777-200/300. Now just A332, regards to contracts, I am sure they have Engie, Total as well.


I wouldnt think so. FCO is notoriously low yield and highly seasonal. CDG on the other hand has a much larger and higher yielding business component.

Drex7 is also correct. AF runs the 332 in the low season and the 77W in the high season.
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IAHWorldflyer
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:22 pm

[quote="TWA772LR"]I don't see UA liking the option of of sendin Asia-bound pax over YVR on AC in lieu of SFO, which actually has a better portfolio of TPAC flights save for BNE, MEL (UA can flow them over LAX, and UA could probably pull off SFO-BNE/MEL), and DEL (UA can flow IAH pax over EWR).

I don't think that UA and AC have a protected JV across the Pacific the way UA and NH do, so UA doesn't have to like anything about AC's operations. And I'm talking about flying IAH-YVR on AC metal. I think an E190 could make the trip with a few hundred miles of range to spare.

Speaking joint ventures, I am really looking forward to seeing what happens with AV and Houston in the coming year. It would be awesome for them to link IAH to BOG on their on metal to feed connections into deep South America. It's possible UA might give up 1 of their 2x daily flights to BOG if AV entered the market. I also think we could see CLO come back on when AV starts taking delivery of their A319NEO birds.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:19 pm

IAHWorldflyer wrote:

Speaking joint ventures, I am really looking forward to seeing what happens with AV and Houston in the coming year. It would be awesome for them to link IAH to BOG on their on metal to feed connections into deep South America. It's possible UA might give up 1 of their 2x daily flights to BOG if AV entered the market. I also think we could see CLO come back on when AV starts taking delivery of their A319NEO birds.


More than anything this is what I want to see play out.

-AV takes over one IAH-BOG flight.
-AV or UA re-launches IAH-CLO
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LIPZ
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:13 pm

To me Houston-Rome is very likely to happen once (and in case that) LH takes over AZ this year.
A good route for a S19 launch.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:53 pm

LIPZ wrote:
To me Houston-Rome is very likely to happen once (and in case that) LH takes over AZ this year.
A good route for a S19 launch.


I dont think so at all. LH has LX and SN in their group. If LH was interested in adding IAH from another market, they would have done it by now.
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LH658
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:23 pm

AF still flying the A332 through winter I think last year they flew the 777w. I wonder what happen to those First Class sales now, When the 777 flew they had people booked in first class.
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:47 pm

LH658 wrote:
AF still flying the A332 through winter I think last year they flew the 777w. I wonder what happen to those First Class sales now, When the 777 flew they had people booked in first class.


They didnt. Theyve been flying the 332 during winter for at least the last two years.
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LIPZ
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:11 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LIPZ wrote:
To me Houston-Rome is very likely to happen once (and in case that) LH takes over AZ this year.
A good route for a S19 launch.


I dont think so at all. LH has LX and SN in their group. If LH was interested in adding IAH from another market, they would have done it by now.

I was referring to UA not to AZ.
In case AZ joins the LH group (and Star Alliance JV across the Atlantic), maybe UA could consider such a route in codeshare with AZ (LH)
 
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drerx7
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:42 pm

Of note, it looks like AC operates E190s on IAH-YYZ exclusively now.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:44 pm

drerx7 wrote:
Of note, it looks like AC operates E190s on IAH-YYZ exclusively now.


Now if we could just get them to thrown one on IAH-YVR....
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LH658
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:08 am

Surprise YVR is 1 flight, use to be 3 when i Flew it then to 2.
 
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:01 am

Any updates on when construction on the new Terminal D will start?
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:39 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
LIPZ wrote:
To me Houston-Rome is very likely to happen once (and in case that) LH takes over AZ this year.
A good route for a S19 launch.


I dont think so at all. LH has LX and SN in their group. If LH was interested in adding IAH from another market, they would have done it by now.

FWIW, Continental was planning to fly IAH-MXP/FCO/MAD and I want to say DXB with their 787's. Then again this was before the Great Recession.
LH658 wrote:
Surprise YVR is 1 flight, use to be 3 when i Flew it then to 2.

A lot has changed because of the merger. I remember when IAH-SNA was 4-6x daily. With UA being aggressive in expansion again and new aircraft coming on, I'm cautiously optimistic for IAH's future with UA.
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DobboDobbo
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:57 am

It's worth keeping an eye on SQ over the winter.

SIN-IAH traffic has been steady, but low, at roughly 55-70 passengers per sector flown. The route therefore needs strong demand MAN-IAH to continue viability. Over the summer months traffic on the MAN-IAH sector was good, but over winter it has dropped off a little (roughly 110 passengers per sector).

The good news is that the route is trending in the right direction. It looks stronger than when it was via DME, and the year on year comparisons for the route are stronger than this time last year. It would help if UA offered connections for MAN O&D passengers, but this is unlikely for a number of reasons.
 
LH658
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:04 am

TWA772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LIPZ wrote:
To me Houston-Rome is very likely to happen once (and in case that) LH takes over AZ this year.
A good route for a S19 launch.


I dont think so at all. LH has LX and SN in their group. If LH was interested in adding IAH from another market, they would have done it by now.

FWIW, Continental was planning to fly IAH-MXP/FCO/MAD and I want to say DXB with their 787's. Then again this was before the Great Recession.
LH658 wrote:
Surprise YVR is 1 flight, use to be 3 when i Flew it then to 2.

A lot has changed because of the merger. I remember when IAH-SNA was 4-6x daily. With UA being aggressive in expansion again and new aircraft coming on, I'm cautiously optimistic for IAH's future with UA.



Yes they were planning DXB, with the 787. Unfortunately other carriers took advantage of IAH, such as QR, EK, SQ, and etc.
 
LH658
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:05 am

DobboDobbo wrote:
It's worth keeping an eye on SQ over the winter.

SIN-IAH traffic has been steady, but low, at roughly 55-70 passengers per sector flown. The route therefore needs strong demand MAN-IAH to continue viability. Over the summer months traffic on the MAN-IAH sector was good, but over winter it has dropped off a little (roughly 110 passengers per sector).

The good news is that the route is trending in the right direction. It looks stronger than when it was via DME, and the year on year comparisons for the route are stronger than this time last year. It would help if UA offered connections for MAN O&D passengers, but this is unlikely for a number of reasons.


DME also, did well due to cargo as well. Though right now it low season for Europe travel. It nice to fly to MAN then take a train to London, save money on buying flight to LHR on BA or UA.
 
DobboDobbo
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:34 am

LH658 wrote:

quote="DobboDobbo"]DME also, did well due to cargo as well. Though right now it low season for Europe travel. It nice to fly to MAN then take a train to London, save money on buying flight to LHR on BA or UA.


The position with cargo broadly reflects the position with passengers.

SIN-IAH is down approximately 20%.

IAH-MAN is up by almost 100% compared to DME-MAN.

This refers to the weight of the cargo, not the value or how much SQ charges for it, so take from that what you will...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:49 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
LIPZ wrote:
To me Houston-Rome is very likely to happen once (and in case that) LH takes over AZ this year.
A good route for a S19 launch.


I dont think so at all. LH has LX and SN in their group. If LH was interested in adding IAH from another market, they would have done it by now.

FWIW, Continental was planning to fly IAH-MXP/FCO/MAD and I want to say DXB with their 787's. Then again this was before the Great Recession.


There are also more huge pieces of the puzzle missing here:

1) This was before EK flew to IAH
2) This is when CO was in SkyTeam
3) This was back when AZ had their hub in MXP instead of FCO
4) This is back when the only big Transatlantic gateway CO had was EWR. Now they have ORD and IAD that serve as transatlantic gateways too.

Those just dont make sense now.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:24 am

Another thing I am keeping my eyes on has to do with domestic operations.

Something that grinds my gears has to do with the use of E145's to markets like IND, CMH, CLE, etc. What Im looking for UA to do is perhaps reduce the frequency and up the equipment. Instead of flying 5X daily on a route like IAH-CLE with four of the flights being E145's, why not make it 4x daily on E175's? That makes more sense to me anyway.
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:31 am

Delta and AA seem to be stagnant in Houston. Spirit and Frontier seem utilize the 321 regularly here though.
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:04 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Another thing I am keeping my eyes on has to do with domestic operations.

Something that grinds my gears has to do with the use of E145's to markets like IND, CMH, CLE, etc. What Im looking for UA to do is perhaps reduce the frequency and up the equipment. Instead of flying 5X daily on a route like IAH-CLE with four of the flights being E145's, why not make it 4x daily on E175's? That makes more sense to me anyway.

I don’t know about YX, but YV can barely handle what flying they have now..
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IAHWorldflyer
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:48 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Another thing I am keeping my eyes on has to do with domestic operations.

Something that grinds my gears has to do with the use of E145's to markets like IND, CMH, CLE, etc. What Im looking for UA to do is perhaps reduce the frequency and up the equipment. Instead of flying 5X daily on a route like IAH-CLE with four of the flights being E145's, why not make it 4x daily on E175's? That makes more sense to me anyway.


It's only 1 route, but I fly IAH-MEM somewhat regularly. Last year they had started putting E170/E175's on most of the flights, with a 738 or A319 thrown in on the late MEM departure. And those planes were mostly flying full. Now they are back to 3x E145 and 1 A319. Or somedays 2x E145 and 2x E175. It's just all over the place. I think Mesa and Republic don't have enough E175's to deploy around the system and are testing markets to see where they can get decent loads and yields.
 
toxtethogrady
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:33 pm

Oil has crept back above $61 a barrel. I would start watching passenger trends out of the two airports, as some of the locals could start feeling flush again...
 
toxtethogrady
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:35 pm

drerx7 wrote:
Delta and AA seem to be stagnant in Houston. Spirit and Frontier seem utilize the 321 regularly here though.


That seems to make sense, as right now, the locals are looking for discounts. But we may see more business travel if WTI remains as high as it is...
 
plinth857
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Re: IAH/HOU Aviation Thread 2018

Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:03 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Another thing I am keeping my eyes on has to do with domestic operations.

Something that grinds my gears has to do with the use of E145's to markets like IND, CMH, CLE, etc. What Im looking for UA to do is perhaps reduce the frequency and up the equipment. Instead of flying 5X daily on a route like IAH-CLE with four of the flights being E145's, why not make it 4x daily on E175's? That makes more sense to me anyway.


I can't speak to the other cities, but I wouldn't expect any change with the CLE aircraft type... it has more to do with the ExpressJet crew base in Cleveland than anything else, I would imagine. It's been like that since they drew down the CLE hublet.

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