Dominion301
Posts: 1962
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Thu May 16, 2019 11:07 pm

berari wrote:
Good point. AC could integrate Air Canada Vacations into Air Transat if it is also keep the travel agency components of the purchase and rebrand it. Transat is quite solid in the leisure space, so we could see AC, AC Vacations and AC Rouge at play.

What are the AC Rouge pilot contracts and restrictions? Transat could be merged into that instead of AC mainline.

What this means to the traveling public, it should be noted, is that we will have one less player in the leisure market, a dominant player at that.


There aren’t separate pilots to fly Rouge aircraft. It’s only the F/As.
 
YYZSpotter1991
Posts: 107
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:32 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 12:44 am

Aircellist wrote:
The interesting part of it is that Air Transat was founded by transfuge pilots when Quebecair was folded into Nordair, which led through CPAir and PWA to Canadian, then to the AC merger… And, the first planes of TS were old AC Tristars. So, somehow, this is like closing the loop…


In addition, one of the founders is the current Premier of Quebec.
Toronto-based flyer since 1997
 
Buffalomatt1027
Posts: 353
Joined: Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:02 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 2:43 am

the last few days of Canadian Airline merger and one being bought ...... this cant be good for frequency and ticket prices.
 
YVRLTN
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:09 am

Neither this nor the Onex/WS deals happened overnight. If Onex had merged WS & TS, that would make quite a formidable competitor to AC with slots and EU & sun network that grows WS internationally massively overnight.

TS has been for sale for a while, so I suppose it was inevitable it would happen. I saw a graphic somewhere that the largest seat provider to the sun market is actually Sunwing, so this is a great opportunity for AC to grow their Vacations. WS is actually fairly insignificant.

In terms of fleet, the 310's will be all gone by next summer season. Many of the 330's are elderly and all leased, so may not be attractive. However, they may be a good interim fit because the extra capacity over the RV 767 will be needed with the demise of the TS capacity where there will be consolidation to the likes of CUN & PVR.

The 321LR would be an amazing aircraft for AC. From an ops level, most at AC HATE the MAX with a passion. Just the bulk loading and reduced payload vs the A320 was a dumb move they are regretting. The grounding could well be a blessing in disguise, Boeing owe them millions in compensation. What Beechnut suggests could be quite feasible, send the MAX 8's over to RV to replace the 319's where cargo is not so much of an issue and we see more 321's at mainline. The 330neo would be a superb machine for both mainline and a merged TS/RV supposing they keep the EU network.

From a consumer perspective, on the longhaul side this is only bad news. As a cost conscious traveler with my own business, TS are our lifeline to the UK. They are routinely $700 cheaper than AC/BA and we could not afford to pay $1400 more if there was not another option. Let's see what happens to WS longhaul, but I can't see AC maintaining YVR - UK for example at current TS fares. We just have to hope, that as the market exists (the aircraft are always full) that maybe a Thomas Cook or Thomson, even Norwegian would step in.

I think it would be good for Flair & Jetlines. Less competition, TS have built up a healthy domestic network, albeit mainly for feed. Go right in while the big two are in a flux streamlining their operations and all the upheaval that will cause behind the scenes sorting out the unions, seniority etc etc and offer the trunk routes like YVR/YYC-YYZ/YUL. The traffic is there and we need lower fares, golden opportunity to establish themselves and create more competition.

Anyway, it's not a done deal yet, though it sounds pretty serious, so lets wait and see.
Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
 
whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:15 am

TS has a very positive brand association amongst Canadians, and Rouge has well, an atrocious brand association with Canadians. AC could theoretically keep the Transat name and brand, and use that as their major leisure carrier as a sort of the group, while using Rouge for lower yielding domestic and transborder flying, where it seems to do well, and has carved out a successful niche. That would leave the Caribbean and Europe to TS, which it is well equipped to handle, and does so already. AC could send TS some Rouge airbusses to take over it's Caribbean flying, and gradually phase out the older 767s and wait for an ideal replacement such as a 797. I am seeing a structure much like the LH group with a tiered service model, and sharing of equipment as required. The A321neos for example would be excellent at AC, and more A330s could help TS to replace a lot of Rouge TATL. The heirchy would be AC-TS-RV. Mainline takes the traditional network flying, TS the leisure TATL and Caribbean on a counter seasonal shift basis, and Rouge the leisure domestic/transborder and defence against the ULCCs making inroads.

This should appease ALPA too, as it means there is no merging of pilot groups, so no challenges with unifying seniority, and no one carrier gets shut down, gradual change can be accomplished by attrition or new hires being sent to a growing side.
 
AWACSooner
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:23 am

How in the hell is this even legal if they pull this off? Surely there needs to be significant divestiture of assets or something?
 
whywhyzee
Posts: 990
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:41 am

YVRLTN wrote:
Neither this nor the Onex/WS deals happened overnight. If Onex had merged WS & TS, that would make quite a formidable competitor to AC with slots and EU & sun network that grows WS internationally massively overnight.

TS has been for sale for a while, so I suppose it was inevitable it would happen. I saw a graphic somewhere that the largest seat provider to the sun market is actually Sunwing, so this is a great opportunity for AC to grow their Vacations. WS is actually fairly insignificant.

In terms of fleet, the 310's will be all gone by next summer season. Many of the 330's are elderly and all leased, so may not be attractive. However, they may be a good interim fit because the extra capacity over the RV 767 will be needed with the demise of the TS capacity where there will be consolidation to the likes of CUN & PVR.

The 321LR would be an amazing aircraft for AC. From an ops level, most at AC HATE the MAX with a passion. Just the bulk loading and reduced payload vs the A320 was a dumb move they are regretting. The grounding could well be a blessing in disguise, Boeing owe them millions in compensation. What Beechnut suggests could be quite feasible, send the MAX 8's over to RV to replace the 319's where cargo is not so much of an issue and we see more 321's at mainline. The 330neo would be a superb machine for both mainline and a merged TS/RV supposing they keep the EU network.

From a consumer perspective, on the longhaul side this is only bad news. As a cost conscious traveler with my own business, TS are our lifeline to the UK. They are routinely $700 cheaper than AC/BA and we could not afford to pay $1400 more if there was not another option. Let's see what happens to WS longhaul, but I can't see AC maintaining YVR - UK for example at current TS fares. We just have to hope, that as the market exists (the aircraft are always full) that maybe a Thomas Cook or Thomson, even Norwegian would step in.

I think it would be good for Flair & Jetlines. Less competition, TS have built up a healthy domestic network, albeit mainly for feed. Go right in while the big two are in a flux streamlining their operations and all the upheaval that will cause behind the scenes sorting out the unions, seniority etc etc and offer the trunk routes like YVR/YYC-YYZ/YUL. The traffic is there and we need lower fares, golden opportunity to establish themselves and create more competition.

Anyway, it's not a done deal yet, though it sounds pretty serious, so lets wait and see.


Not sure what you are getting at in terms of payload. The max can take 2000lbs more payload than an A320neo, let alone AC's current A320s.

The Max can take ~16.3 tons of fuel at MZFW, where as the highest weight variant of the A320neo can only take 14.7 tons of fuel at it's already 1.7 tons lower MZFW.

Between the Max8 and A320neo, the max is the clear winner on payload. It takes a heavier load and it takes that load further.
 
beechnut
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 1:05 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
TS has a very positive brand association amongst Canadians, and Rouge has well, an atrocious brand association with Canadians. AC could theoretically keep the Transat name and brand, and use that as their major leisure carrier as a sort of the group, while using Rouge for lower yielding domestic and transborder flying,


I'm not even sure I'd keep the Rouge brand, I don't think it has much brand equity, whereas Air Transat does especially in Quebec. Make Air Transat, or Transat by/par Air Canada, or something along those lines, *the* low-cost brand, and make Air Canada, the mainline brand.

Now, question to all us avgeeks out there: would you place the C-se...oups... A223 with AC Mainline, or the low-cost brand? Send the Max 8s to the LCC, to cover the upper end of narrow body flying and the A223s for the lower-end? Might not be a bad strategy, with nothing smaller than an A321 at AC mainline (I see no future for the MAX 9 if this merger goes through). Let the A223 at Transat by/par Air Canada fly to smaller domestic/transborder/sun destinations, i,e. replace the A319s, the MAX 8 handles thinner European leisure destinations and most of the leisure destination flying, and the A321s handle AC transcon/major cities, some east coast to Europe flying (LRs) and the like; make the MAX 8 with the Transat brand do YUL/YQB to France destinations, the A321LRs under the AC brand handle Ireland and UK or non-Francophone Europe destinations within reach of YYZ/YUL. The Air Transat A330s would move to the LCC side with the current mainline A333s kept at mainline; 16 A330s, with their higher capacity, would neatly takeover from the 25 767s. Love the 767, but they're getting long in the tooth and I've experienced several delays with them both at mainline and Rouge. They're past their "best before" date.

Beech
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 2:34 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Would that be legally possible to keep Transat AT as an independent subsidiary - in order to avoid the pilot seniority list integration?


You give up a lot of operating synergies if doing so: pilots, FAs, aircraft utilization. It's easy enough to argue that Air Transat is too small to operate independently in North America; an independent subsidiary just perpetuates much of that.
 
ac7e7
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 2:47 pm

My predictions:

- The Max 8s are staying with mainline.
- Rouge is not going anywhere. People may not like it, but it has been a significant part of AC’s financial recovery.
- AT may have kept fares low, but look where that has lead them. Operating an airline in Canada is costly and it is not easy keeping fares that low while maintaining healthy margins year after year.

- The A330s will likely go to Rouge. AC has stated before they will need a 767 replacement at Rouge early next decade. This is likely it. They still have lots of life left in them vs the 767s.
- The A310s will be gone about as quickly as the CP DC-10s were after the AC/CP merger.

I think the bigger questions will be around the new A321s. Do they go to Rouge? Are they slated to “replace” the Max 9s at mainline? Would the order be cancelled/sold to another carrier?
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 2:55 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
- The A310s will be gone about as quickly as the CP DC-10s were after the AC/CP merger.


Whether it's the A310s today or the DC-10s then, it'd be no surprise. CP should have been in the replacement process then as is TS now.
 
Aircellist
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 3:10 pm

YYZSpotter1991 wrote:
Aircellist wrote:
The interesting part of it is that Air Transat was founded by transfuge pilots when Quebecair was folded into Nordair, which led through CPAir and PWA to Canadian, then to the AC merger… And, the first planes of TS were old AC Tristars. So, somehow, this is like closing the loop…


In addition, one of the founders is the current Premier of Quebec.


I know, I live in Montreal :)
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
AwysBSB
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 3:55 pm

Air Transat has many equals with which to merge: Sun Country, Norwegian, TUI, Thomas Cook, Atlas Global, Nordwind, Azur, Beijing Capital.
Air Canada had not be Air Transat`s first choice for negotiating that.
 
robsaw
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:16 pm

AwysBSB wrote:
Air Transat has many equals with which to merge: Sun Country, Norwegian, TUI, Thomas Cook, Atlas Global, Nordwind, Azur, Beijing Capital.
Air Canada had not be Air Transat`s first choice for negotiating that.


And all those others aren't Canadian controlled, which means they have a limited equity stake potential in owning a Canadian-based airline.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:31 pm

keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots and 20 A330s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.
24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025

The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.


If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.

The chances of this deal closing and getting regulatory approvals on such a timeframe are zero. The stuff of fantasy.
 
IADCA
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 4:41 pm

YULACYYZ wrote:
AC must have done their homework. If Transat walks away for a bigger deal, they owe AC 15 million. Likewise Ac would have to pay them 40 million should the deal ends for regulatory issues.


Those are both pretty standard provisions in deals with potential antitrust hurdles and the chance for an overtopping bid from someone else. That's actually a smaller regulatory termination fee than I would have expected to see.
 
AwysBSB
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 5:06 pm

robsaw wrote:
AwysBSB wrote:
Air Transat has many equals with which to merge: Sun Country, Norwegian, TUI, Thomas Cook, Atlas Global, Nordwind, Azur, Beijing Capital.
Air Canada had not be Air Transat`s first choice for negotiating that.


And all those others aren't Canadian controlled, which means they have a limited equity stake potential in owning a Canadian-based airline.

But does Transat really need to have an airline certified in Canada?
They can simply give Air Transat assets in exchange of participation in some of those existing airlines or create a new one with them, hence Air Transat`s operating bases would belong to a foreign airline [something similar to Norwegian Long Haul (DU) does in BCN, ORY].
At least competition would be preserved in international routes from Canada and Transat would obtain a more friedly partner than Air Canada.
 
SpaceshipDC10
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 5:33 pm

CBC has published yesterday this look-back of Air Transat and its business.

In the 1990s, Air Transat was in 'takeover mode'
 
Speedalive
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 5:50 pm

beechnut wrote:
The Air Transat A330s would move to the LCC side with the current mainline A333s kept at mainline [Beech

A person on another forum stated that Calin had already said that the TS 330's would be incorporated into mainline. Can't find a quote to support his/her statement though.
 
alan3
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 6:00 pm

With all of this consolidation, what about Sunwing?

They still have a decent share of the winter sun market. Any chance Onex-WS or AC-AT would try to go after them?
 
smallmj
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 7:05 pm

alan3 wrote:
With all of this consolidation, what about Sunwing?

They still have a decent share of the winter sun market. Any chance Onex-WS or AC-AT would try to go after them?


Sunwing is 49% owned by TUI.
 
Cavalier44
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 7:13 pm

alan3 wrote:
With all of this consolidation, what about Sunwing?

They still have a decent share of the winter sun market. Any chance Onex-WS or AC-AT would try to go after them?


I would be very surprised to see that happen. Sunwing Travel Group has been consistently profitable for years; they're also already 49% owned by TUI Group which has considerable financial resources to weather any short-term economic downturns that could be faced in the near future.

On top of that, with the AC-TS tie-up already occurring, the Competition Bureau would have to take a long and careful consideration into any more market consolidation in the Canadian airline industry. With Air Transat out of the picture, we're already in a near-duopoly situation in Canada with AC and WS being the two remaining major players. Outside of regional airlines, Sunwing will be the largest remaining operator which is unaffiliated with either AC or WS. I can't envision a scenario in which they would be allowed to be taken over as that would hugely impact the amount of choice that's available to Canadian consumers.
 
9252fly
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 8:42 pm

Cavalier44 wrote:
alan3 wrote:
With all of this consolidation, what about Sunwing?

They still have a decent share of the winter sun market. Any chance Onex-WS or AC-AT would try to go after them?


I would be very surprised to see that happen. Sunwing Travel Group has been consistently profitable for years; they're also already 49% owned by TUI Group which has considerable financial resources to weather any short-term economic downturns that could be faced in the near future.

On top of that, with the AC-TS tie-up already occurring, the Competition Bureau would have to take a long and careful consideration into any more market consolidation in the Canadian airline industry. With Air Transat out of the picture, we're already in a near-duopoly situation in Canada with AC and WS being the two remaining major players. Outside of regional airlines, Sunwing will be the largest remaining operator which is unaffiliated with either AC or WS. I can't envision a scenario in which they would be allowed to be taken over as that would hugely impact the amount of choice that's available to Canadian consumers.


I find it difficult to see an AC-TS tie-up as being an issue with the Competition Bureau considering TS is not a relevant player on domestic routes with a market share somewhere just above 0.1%. There is competition from international air carriers to all of the destinations TS operates to outside of Canada, granted it would likely mean making a connection at a competitors hub. The impact to consumers will be determined by potential changes to the TS route network and/or fare pricing, those are purely market driven decisions.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 8:57 pm

I would be surprised if this deal gets approved without significant concessions at YUL. There would be virtually no domestic competition in Francophone Canada with this. Out of YYZ, you have a duopoly with WS and AC.

If TS then has to turn to Onex, you would at least still have the duopoly situation in Francophone Canada, but not a virtual domestic monopoly. Face it...in Canada, domestic aviation is a duopoly right now and with how Canada's population is concentrated, I do not see room for a third player today. (When WestJet began to emerge as one, Canadian Airlines International, which had been poorly performing, ended up bought by Air Canada, which ended up with a near monopoly on domestic travel at the time, until WestJet grew, thanks in part to some corporate espionage there.) Jetsgo was never that serious a competitor nationally to Air Canada, and Porter would be a distant third, primarily out of YTZ and flying a smaller network between Toronto and the Maritimes, and trans-border along there using only a Dash 8 fleet. Porter is the third largest airline in Canada, but a distant third.
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Fri May 17, 2019 9:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
Cavalier44
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 9:00 pm

9252fly wrote:
Cavalier44 wrote:
alan3 wrote:
With all of this consolidation, what about Sunwing?

They still have a decent share of the winter sun market. Any chance Onex-WS or AC-AT would try to go after them?


I would be very surprised to see that happen. Sunwing Travel Group has been consistently profitable for years; they're also already 49% owned by TUI Group which has considerable financial resources to weather any short-term economic downturns that could be faced in the near future.

On top of that, with the AC-TS tie-up already occurring, the Competition Bureau would have to take a long and careful consideration into any more market consolidation in the Canadian airline industry. With Air Transat out of the picture, we're already in a near-duopoly situation in Canada with AC and WS being the two remaining major players. Outside of regional airlines, Sunwing will be the largest remaining operator which is unaffiliated with either AC or WS. I can't envision a scenario in which they would be allowed to be taken over as that would hugely impact the amount of choice that's available to Canadian consumers.


I find it difficult to see an AC-TS tie-up as being an issue with the Competition Bureau considering TS is not a relevant player on domestic routes with a market share somewhere just above 0.1%. There is competition from international air carriers to all of the destinations TS operates to outside of Canada, granted it would likely mean making a connection at a competitors hub. The impact to consumers will be determined by potential changes to the TS route network and/or fare pricing, those are purely market driven decisions.


My apologies if I was unclear - my comment with regards to the Competition Bureau was with respect to a hypothetical acquisition of Sunwing by either AC or WS in the future. I do agree with you in that I fully expect the AC-TS merger to be approved in due course. However, in the future there will be only three players in the Canadian vacation travel market following the TS acquisition by AC.

I am very skeptical that the Competition Bureau would allow a duopoly to be created in that sector, hence I believe that Sunwing is in a strategically sound position going forward. Their vertically integrated business model gives them a leg up on both AC and WS who lag behind when it comes to owning and operating the hotel chains/tour providers/etc. With that being said, AC taking over Transat Vacations gives them an interesting vehicle to compete with Sunwing going forward - I'm very curious to see how this will play out.
 
jimbo737
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Fri May 17, 2019 11:22 pm

santi319 wrote:
Its a natural fit. Watch Rouge grow now.
Rouge was the best thing AC could’ve come up with. They literally killed their competition. Whoever did that at AC deserves a raise.


Huh?
 
speedbird52
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 12:07 am

ac7e7 wrote:
My predictions:

- The Max 8s are staying with mainline.
- Rouge is not going anywhere. People may not like it, but it has been a significant part of AC’s financial recovery.
- AT may have kept fares low, but look where that has lead them. Operating an airline in Canada is costly and it is not easy keeping fares that low while maintaining healthy margins year after year.

- The A330s will likely go to Rouge. AC has stated before they will need a 767 replacement at Rouge early next decade. This is likely it. They still have lots of life left in them vs the 767s.
- The A310s will be gone about as quickly as the CP DC-10s were after the AC/CP merger.

I think the bigger questions will be around the new A321s. Do they go to Rouge? Are they slated to “replace” the Max 9s at mainline? Would the order be cancelled/sold to another carrier?

Something that certainly isn't going to happen but I would love to see is at least one A310 in an Air Canada livery
 
queb
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 12:15 am

ac7e7 wrote:
I think the bigger questions will be around the new A321s. Do they go to Rouge? Are they slated to “replace” the Max 9s at mainline? Would the order be cancelled/sold to another carrier?


Cancelled or sold? Don't think so. They're all leased from Aercap (12 years contract)
 
jbs2886
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 12:19 am

I don’t understand why everyone works so hard to simplify fleet structures. There are significant expenses to redo cabins, etc. In a perfect world, yes, the airlines would have the simplest, but most efficient fleets possible. But acquiring an airline doesn’t mean they are going to swap 40+ aircraft around 3 brands.

Same issue with AF/KLM. It’s just unrealistic.
 
User avatar
767333ER
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 2:57 am

whywhyzee wrote:
YVRLTN wrote:
Neither this nor the Onex/WS deals happened overnight. If Onex had merged WS & TS, that would make quite a formidable competitor to AC with slots and EU & sun network that grows WS internationally massively overnight.

TS has been for sale for a while, so I suppose it was inevitable it would happen. I saw a graphic somewhere that the largest seat provider to the sun market is actually Sunwing, so this is a great opportunity for AC to grow their Vacations. WS is actually fairly insignificant.

In terms of fleet, the 310's will be all gone by next summer season. Many of the 330's are elderly and all leased, so may not be attractive. However, they may be a good interim fit because the extra capacity over the RV 767 will be needed with the demise of the TS capacity where there will be consolidation to the likes of CUN & PVR.

The 321LR would be an amazing aircraft for AC. From an ops level, most at AC HATE the MAX with a passion. Just the bulk loading and reduced payload vs the A320 was a dumb move they are regretting. The grounding could well be a blessing in disguise, Boeing owe them millions in compensation. What Beechnut suggests could be quite feasible, send the MAX 8's over to RV to replace the 319's where cargo is not so much of an issue and we see more 321's at mainline. The 330neo would be a superb machine for both mainline and a merged TS/RV supposing they keep the EU network.

From a consumer perspective, on the longhaul side this is only bad news. As a cost conscious traveler with my own business, TS are our lifeline to the UK. They are routinely $700 cheaper than AC/BA and we could not afford to pay $1400 more if there was not another option. Let's see what happens to WS longhaul, but I can't see AC maintaining YVR - UK for example at current TS fares. We just have to hope, that as the market exists (the aircraft are always full) that maybe a Thomas Cook or Thomson, even Norwegian would step in.

I think it would be good for Flair & Jetlines. Less competition, TS have built up a healthy domestic network, albeit mainly for feed. Go right in while the big two are in a flux streamlining their operations and all the upheaval that will cause behind the scenes sorting out the unions, seniority etc etc and offer the trunk routes like YVR/YYC-YYZ/YUL. The traffic is there and we need lower fares, golden opportunity to establish themselves and create more competition.

Anyway, it's not a done deal yet, though it sounds pretty serious, so lets wait and see.


Not sure what you are getting at in terms of payload. The max can take 2000lbs more payload than an A320neo, let alone AC's current A320s.

The Max can take ~16.3 tons of fuel at MZFW, where as the highest weight variant of the A320neo can only take 14.7 tons of fuel at it's already 1.7 tons lower MZFW.

Between the Max8 and A320neo, the max is the clear winner on payload. It takes a heavier load and it takes that load further.

Whatever the case may be, it has basically become a known fact that Air Canada for the most part doesn’t like the MAX so much ad the people that have to work on board the thing mostly hate it. The company of course wouldn’t come out and say this, but I’m sure they’ll be excited to get some A321s to drown out their 737s a bit.
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 3:25 am

Absolutely horrible news
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
Speedalive
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 4:18 am

From avcanada...
If the wording in Calin's message means anything Air Transat could remain its own brand/operation for the foreseeable future at least and no merge short term.

1. By connecting Transat to our own network
2. ....adding Transat services to our network would create new North American market opportunities to cities like Seattle, San Diego, Charlotte and Nashville, and allow added frequencies to major U.S. and Canadian cites


By adding incremental revenues of $3 billion and a world-leading international tourism company, this purchase will accelerate our already ambitious growth plan. A transformative new relationship with Transat is consistent with everything we have been saying and doing over the last decade and supports the same four priorities that have brought us so far in becoming sustainably profitable and a true global champion.

The most obvious of those is International Growth. By connecting Transat to our own network, we would be strengthening service to cities like Basel, Malagua, Nantes, Toulouse, Porto and Prague. Additionally, adding Transat services to our network would create new North American market opportunities to cities like Seattle, San Diego, Charlotte and Nashville, and allow added frequencies to major U.S. and Canadian cites.

Our priority around Customer Engagement would also be supported, as customers would greatly benefit from an enhanced global network that offers more travel options, improved flight schedules, new products and services, new route opportunities, and access to value-added benefits such as loyalty programs and frequent flyer benefits, particularly in light of our recent acquisition of Aeroplan. Transat also brings a proven track record in customer service excellence.

This “made in Quebec” solution would strengthen our Montreal hub as a top international connection point. All of that, in turn, supports Revenue Generation – another of our priorities.
 
yulexpansion
Posts: 55
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:08 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 4:55 am

Speedalive wrote:
From avcanada...
If the wording in Calin's message means anything Air Transat could remain its own brand/operation for the foreseeable future at least and no merge short term.

1. By connecting Transat to our own network
2. ....adding Transat services to our network would create new North American market opportunities to cities like Seattle, San Diego, Charlotte and Nashville, and allow added frequencies to major U.S. and Canadian cites


By adding incremental revenues of $3 billion and a world-leading international tourism company, this purchase will accelerate our already ambitious growth plan. A transformative new relationship with Transat is consistent with everything we have been saying and doing over the last decade and supports the same four priorities that have brought us so far in becoming sustainably profitable and a true global champion.

The most obvious of those is International Growth. By connecting Transat to our own network, we would be strengthening service to cities like Basel, Malagua, Nantes, Toulouse, Porto and Prague. Additionally, adding Transat services to our network would create new North American market opportunities to cities like Seattle, San Diego, Charlotte and Nashville, and allow added frequencies to major U.S. and Canadian cites.

Our priority around Customer Engagement would also be supported, as customers would greatly benefit from an enhanced global network that offers more travel options, improved flight schedules, new products and services, new route opportunities, and access to value-added benefits such as loyalty programs and frequent flyer benefits, particularly in light of our recent acquisition of Aeroplan. Transat also brings a proven track record in customer service excellence.

This “made in Quebec” solution would strengthen our Montreal hub as a top international connection point. All of that, in turn, supports Revenue Generation – another of our priorities.


Can you link a source?
 
Speedalive
Posts: 120
Joined: Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:09 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 5:03 am

yulexpansion wrote:
Can you link a source?

I cannot. Got it from here http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopic.php?f=140&t=132053&p=1078748#p1078748
 
YYZORD
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 5:16 am

If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2332
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 8:10 am

YYZORD wrote:
If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats.

AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between all but the top few cities in the USA and second tier cities in Europe ie Nashville to Bordeaux and so on has no demand. Air Canada’s claim that this will result in more feeder flights from medium sized US and Canadian cities is they type of BS airlines say to competition authorities when they want a merger to go through. A BNA-YUL
Flight isn’t going to survive based on Bordeaux connections, plus there are enough YUL-Bordeaux pax, they don’t need the one yes one pax from BNA.
 
ac7e7
Posts: 747
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:27 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 12:58 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Its a natural fit. Watch Rouge grow now.
Rouge was the best thing AC could’ve come up with. They literally killed their competition. Whoever did that at AC deserves a raise.


Huh?


This response in itself demonstrates why WS is in the position it is in today.
They got complacent, and believed they were superior to AC in every way. Unfortunately for them, over the past decade AC reviewed and improved almost every part of their business while WS whines about how unfair the market is treating them and in turn, their stock price.

Whether people like or hate Rouge, it played a significant role turning AC’s financials around.

If Westjetters thinks it will be business as usual under Onex, they better think again. Onex will want a significant return on their investment, which means chasing business travellers. AC will defend this market segment very aggressively. Many have tried and failed to achieve this. I’m not sure what WS thinks they can offer that others have already tried, or that AC already offers today. Which means it will come down to a price war.

It will be a bloodbath, whether it be from a competitive standpoint with AC, or internally at WS due to Onex restructuring. If WS employees believe their CEO’s shtick that Onex will not make any changes and are simply along for the ride, they must still believe it is 2008.
 
VictorKilo
Posts: 226
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:39 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 2:37 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats.

AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between all but the top few cities in the USA and second tier cities in Europe ie Nashville to Bordeaux and so on has no demand. Air Canada’s claim that this will result in more feeder flights from medium sized US and Canadian cities is they type of BS airlines say to competition authorities when they want a merger to go through. A BNA-YUL
Flight isn’t going to survive based on Bordeaux connections, plus there are enough YUL-Bordeaux pax, they don’t need the one yes one pax from BNA.


You are right that AC isn’t going to start CMI-YUL so that one University of Illinois student can get back to her home in BOD. But I imagine that there are flights like BNA-YUL where the additional TATL connecting volume could tip a marginal business case to a profitable business case. This is the advantage of hubs, creating scale to complement O&D.
 
beechnut
Posts: 725
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 12:27 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 3:35 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
If WS employees believe their CEO’s shtick that Onex will not make any changes and are simply along for the ride, they must still believe it is 2008.


Apparently WS employees do not have a pension plan, they depend on the stock ownership plan to build up some kind of decent retirement. With Onex taking WS private, this will probably no longer be an option, and some WS employees have already started to ring alarm bells about that.

In a normal world some sort of defined contribution plan with an employer contribution that approximates the value of the stock acquisition plan would be introduced, but we no longer live in a normal world. So I think it's fair to assume some employee unrest is bound to occur. We are a long way from the small mom-and-pop shop that WS started out as.

Beech
 
longhauler
Posts: 6169
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 4:05 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
If Westjetters thinks it will be business as usual under Onex, they better think again. Onex will want a significant return on their investment, which means chasing business travellers. AC will defend this market segment very aggressively. Many have tried and failed to achieve this. I’m not sure what WS thinks they can offer that others have already tried, or that AC already offers today. Which means it will come down to a price war.


I would suggest all have failed.

In the past, there have been some pretty capable competitors for business travellers. Canadian Airlines probably had the best shot. With a worldwide network, a strong (at the time) American ally, and a cabin product that was better than AC in every way ... yet, no success. In fact, AMR Corporation sent up some pretty high powered help to do just that. The Director of Marketing had some great ideas, but (for example) did not gain any market share at all in the YYZ-YOW/YUL market.

(That was when the "A bomb scare wouldn't get a businessman off an Air Canada airplane") was uttered.

Others? Well, Wardair had the concept of J Class at Y fares. (no success). And let's face it, there will never be another airline with service like Wardair. How about Astoria or Roots Air? Porter has done very well. But I wonder how well they would do without the (virtual) monopoly of YTZ?

So I don't think a fare war would result, because most often the traveller isn't paying for the seat anyway.

All of these airlines found out that there is much more to attracting and keeping a business traveller than just bolting in a big seat and dusting off the china.

I have my theories on why Air Canada is so successful, but they are just my theories. This is going to be fun to watch and we have front row seats!
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
ac7e7
Posts: 747
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:27 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 4:10 pm

beechnut wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
If WS employees believe their CEO’s shtick that Onex will not make any changes and are simply along for the ride, they must still believe it is 2008.


Apparently WS employees do not have a pension plan, they depend on the stock ownership plan to build up some kind of decent retirement. With Onex taking WS private, this will probably no longer be an option, and some WS employees have already started to ring alarm bells about that.

In a normal world some sort of defined contribution plan with an employer contribution that approximates the value of the stock acquisition plan would be introduced, but we no longer live in a normal world. So I think it's fair to assume some employee unrest is bound to occur. We are a long way from the small mom-and-pop shop that WS started out as.

Beech


Agreed. Maybe they will have an option to purchase Onex stock through payroll deductions, with Onex kicking in 25%, 50%, or even 1 for 1.

Until it is made clear to them, it will cause unrest.
 
YYZLGA
Posts: 314
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:28 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 4:27 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
beechnut wrote:
ac7e7 wrote:
If WS employees believe their CEO’s shtick that Onex will not make any changes and are simply along for the ride, they must still believe it is 2008.


Apparently WS employees do not have a pension plan, they depend on the stock ownership plan to build up some kind of decent retirement. With Onex taking WS private, this will probably no longer be an option, and some WS employees have already started to ring alarm bells about that.

In a normal world some sort of defined contribution plan with an employer contribution that approximates the value of the stock acquisition plan would be introduced, but we no longer live in a normal world. So I think it's fair to assume some employee unrest is bound to occur. We are a long way from the small mom-and-pop shop that WS started out as.

Beech


Agreed. Maybe they will have an option to purchase Onex stock through payroll deductions, with Onex kicking in 25%, 50%, or even 1 for 1.

Until it is made clear to them, it will cause unrest.


A lot of PE deals involve employees (usually management) getting some of the equity. Perhaps the deal could be structured with employees getting some of the stock even as a private company, but obviously it would be illiquid.

I think trying to chase business travellers away from AC is a fool's errand. AC has the global network, the alliance connections, the FF loyalty, and the frequencies that are going to be impossible to match. The opportunity in Canada is at the low end, driving volume growth through more affordable flying than AC can offer. That's not going to be easy either, but I think it's more feasible than the former.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 1962
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 5:19 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats.

AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between all but the top few cities in the USA and second tier cities in Europe ie Nashville to Bordeaux and so on has no demand. Air Canada’s claim that this will result in more feeder flights from medium sized US and Canadian cities is they type of BS airlines say to competition authorities when they want a merger to go through. A BNA-YUL
Flight isn’t going to survive based on Bordeaux connections, plus there are enough YUL-Bordeaux pax, they don’t need the one yes one pax from BNA.


The one route where they’ll probably keep two brands is YUL-CDG and they’ll probably divide LHR & LGW ops between AC mainline and TS.

Speaking of which, I wonder if the Competition bureau will force AC to give up any LHR slots? I certainly hope not as WS would simply use them to replace YYC/YYZ-LGW with LHR resulting in even less competition and choice.

AC will most definitely now launch YUL-SEA/SAN & probably BNA & CLT with the incoming additional CR9s. The additional TS destinations will be the difference between those routes not being and being viable as AC will now have such a critical mass at YUL, plus the A223 coming is the right aircraft for SEA/SAN.

Similarly, I think AC/TS vs WS/Onex will see AC strengthen their eastern YOW and YHZ focus cities and increases the likelihood of YHZ-FRA & YOW-CDG and YOW-FRA going back to year-round ops with the 321LR in winter.

One thing Onex will bring to WS is a much more Central Canada perspective. If Onex do indeed push WS into a credible full-fledged legacy, they will see the understand the importance in WS being a strong 2nd to AC at YUL & YOW as opposed to an afterthought registering even lower than PD...which they themselves may now see this as the opportunity to grow after years of holding steady. In order for WS to achieve this, it doesn’t need to happen all in one shot, but at least flying non-YYC transcons year-round and a decent YUL/YOW-Florida presence would be good and easy places to start...as it would largely be a simple reversal of cutbacks.
 
cumulushumilis
Posts: 210
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 8:49 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 5:47 pm

ac7e7 wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
santi319 wrote:
Its a natural fit. Watch Rouge grow now.
Rouge was the best thing AC could’ve come up with. They literally killed their competition. Whoever did that at AC deserves a raise.


Huh?


This response in itself demonstrates why WS is in the position it is in today.
They got complacent, and believed they were superior to AC in every way. Unfortunately for them, over the past decade AC reviewed and improved almost every part of their business while WS whines about how unfair the market is treating them and in turn, their stock price.

Whether people like or hate Rouge, it played a significant role turning AC’s financials around.

If Westjetters thinks it will be business as usual under Onex, they better think again. Onex will want a significant return on their investment, which means chasing business travellers. AC will defend this market segment very aggressively. Many have tried and failed to achieve this. I’m not sure what WS thinks they can offer that others have already tried, or that AC already offers today. Which means it will come down to a price war.

It will be a bloodbath, whether it be from a competitive standpoint with AC, or internally at WS due to Onex restructuring. If WS employees believe their CEO’s shtick that Onex will not make any changes and are simply along for the ride, they must still believe it is 2008.


Well, it might be a bloodbath, but I would put all my money on the incumbent just yet. Onex/WestJet have a few things up their sleeve.

For one when WestJet sold off the first 3 787 to a leasing company did anybody happen to notice who that company was?.. Who is the major shareholder of BBAM? Just saying preferential access to one of the largest private leasing companies goes a long way, in particular if you want to accelerate fleet growth.

WestJet employees are not deluded into a false sense of “its business as usual”. Far from it.. Onex’s involvement is about accelerating the growth strategy that WestJet has been executing on. Speeding up current investments in technology, RBC Ampli, international growth (787), DeltaJV and other partners and getting an accelerated return. Business travel is just one of the pillars this growth is predicated on.

If this current strategy fails you can be sure for 100%. certainty that Onex will stir the pot. They are investing and offering a premium on what they see now and in the future.

As for employees, compensation will most likely be similar to before WestJet went public on the first IPO. Give the employees a stake in a future IPO. Onex does not blow up companies but rather invest heavily in them.. Look at Spirit AeroSystems. Went from 5000 to 14000 employees.



Its going to an interesting 5 Years.. Bloodbath? .. Not so sure..
 
YYZORD
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 8:31 pm

Any transborder routes that AC can add at YYZ and YVR? We know YUL has a lot of potential like SEA, SAN, CLT, BNA, etc but I'm sure the other hubs have transborder routes viable that are still not served yet.

Dominion301 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
If AC takes over TS and then get their total pax, this will be huge. Imagine the amount of pax that AC would handle per year along with extra pax connecting to the United States thanks to the huge increase in european seats.

AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between all but the top few cities in the USA and second tier cities in Europe ie Nashville to Bordeaux and so on has no demand. Air Canada’s claim that this will result in more feeder flights from medium sized US and Canadian cities is they type of BS airlines say to competition authorities when they want a merger to go through. A BNA-YUL
Flight isn’t going to survive based on Bordeaux connections, plus there are enough YUL-Bordeaux pax, they don’t need the one yes one pax from BNA.


The one route where they’ll probably keep two brands is YUL-CDG and they’ll probably divide LHR & LGW ops between AC mainline and TS.

Speaking of which, I wonder if the Competition bureau will force AC to give up any LHR slots? I certainly hope not as WS would simply use them to replace YYC/YYZ-LGW with LHR resulting in even less competition and choice.

AC will most definitely now launch YUL-SEA/SAN & probably BNA & CLT with the incoming additional CR9s. The additional TS destinations will be the difference between those routes not being and being viable as AC will now have such a critical mass at YUL, plus the A223 coming is the right aircraft for SEA/SAN.

Similarly, I think AC/TS vs WS/Onex will see AC strengthen their eastern YOW and YHZ focus cities and increases the likelihood of YHZ-FRA & YOW-CDG and YOW-FRA going back to year-round ops with the 321LR in winter.

One thing Onex will bring to WS is a much more Central Canada perspective. If Onex do indeed push WS into a credible full-fledged legacy, they will see the understand the importance in WS being a strong 2nd to AC at YUL & YOW as opposed to an afterthought registering even lower than PD...which they themselves may now see this as the opportunity to grow after years of holding steady. In order for WS to achieve this, it doesn’t need to happen all in one shot, but at least flying non-YYC transcons year-round and a decent YUL/YOW-Florida presence would be good and easy places to start...as it would largely be a simple reversal of cutbacks.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 1962
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 8:56 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Any transborder routes that AC can add at YYZ and YVR? We know YUL has a lot of potential like SEA, SAN, CLT, BNA, etc but I'm sure the other hubs have transborder routes viable that are still not served yet.

Dominion301 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
AC will shut down any overlap, second there is next to no traffic between all but the top few cities in the USA and second tier cities in Europe ie Nashville to Bordeaux and so on has no demand. Air Canada’s claim that this will result in more feeder flights from medium sized US and Canadian cities is they type of BS airlines say to competition authorities when they want a merger to go through. A BNA-YUL
Flight isn’t going to survive based on Bordeaux connections, plus there are enough YUL-Bordeaux pax, they don’t need the one yes one pax from BNA.


The one route where they’ll probably keep two brands is YUL-CDG and they’ll probably divide LHR & LGW ops between AC mainline and TS.

Speaking of which, I wonder if the Competition bureau will force AC to give up any LHR slots? I certainly hope not as WS would simply use them to replace YYC/YYZ-LGW with LHR resulting in even less competition and choice.

AC will most definitely now launch YUL-SEA/SAN & probably BNA & CLT with the incoming additional CR9s. The additional TS destinations will be the difference between those routes not being and being viable as AC will now have such a critical mass at YUL, plus the A223 coming is the right aircraft for SEA/SAN.

Similarly, I think AC/TS vs WS/Onex will see AC strengthen their eastern YOW and YHZ focus cities and increases the likelihood of YHZ-FRA & YOW-CDG and YOW-FRA going back to year-round ops with the 321LR in winter.

One thing Onex will bring to WS is a much more Central Canada perspective. If Onex do indeed push WS into a credible full-fledged legacy, they will see the understand the importance in WS being a strong 2nd to AC at YUL & YOW as opposed to an afterthought registering even lower than PD...which they themselves may now see this as the opportunity to grow after years of holding steady. In order for WS to achieve this, it doesn’t need to happen all in one shot, but at least flying non-YYC transcons year-round and a decent YUL/YOW-Florida presence would be good and easy places to start...as it would largely be a simple reversal of cutbacks.


Based solely off the TS takeover? I’d say none at YVR. At YYZ, maybe extra capacity or frequency on some existing transborder routes.

However, I do think there’s room for AC to add more transborder at YVR. For example, IAD. Maybe seasonal RNO. At YYZ, maybe another crack at GRR? This time with a CRJ instead of 19 seater.
 
YYZORD
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 9:29 pm

I mean't in general, but yes you make very good points. For YVR I was thinking of adding AUS and BNA with your addition of year round IAD. For AUS, AC already flies mainline from YYZ and AUS is known as a tech hub and great film/art industry there. BNA is served from YYZ and YYC already so YVR would make a great addition with it's trans-pacific flights.

Dominion301 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
Any transborder routes that AC can add at YYZ and YVR? We know YUL has a lot of potential like SEA, SAN, CLT, BNA, etc but I'm sure the other hubs have transborder routes viable that are still not served yet.

Dominion301 wrote:

The one route where they’ll probably keep two brands is YUL-CDG and they’ll probably divide LHR & LGW ops between AC mainline and TS.

Speaking of which, I wonder if the Competition bureau will force AC to give up any LHR slots? I certainly hope not as WS would simply use them to replace YYC/YYZ-LGW with LHR resulting in even less competition and choice.

AC will most definitely now launch YUL-SEA/SAN & probably BNA & CLT with the incoming additional CR9s. The additional TS destinations will be the difference between those routes not being and being viable as AC will now have such a critical mass at YUL, plus the A223 coming is the right aircraft for SEA/SAN.

Similarly, I think AC/TS vs WS/Onex will see AC strengthen their eastern YOW and YHZ focus cities and increases the likelihood of YHZ-FRA & YOW-CDG and YOW-FRA going back to year-round ops with the 321LR in winter.

One thing Onex will bring to WS is a much more Central Canada perspective. If Onex do indeed push WS into a credible full-fledged legacy, they will see the understand the importance in WS being a strong 2nd to AC at YUL & YOW as opposed to an afterthought registering even lower than PD...which they themselves may now see this as the opportunity to grow after years of holding steady. In order for WS to achieve this, it doesn’t need to happen all in one shot, but at least flying non-YYC transcons year-round and a decent YUL/YOW-Florida presence would be good and easy places to start...as it would largely be a simple reversal of cutbacks.


Based solely off the TS takeover? I’d say none at YVR. At YYZ, maybe extra capacity or frequency on some existing transborder routes.

However, I do think there’s room for AC to add more transborder at YVR. For example, IAD. Maybe seasonal RNO. At YYZ, maybe another crack at GRR? This time with a CRJ instead of 19 seater.
 
smartplane
Posts: 777
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 10:02 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
The devil will be in the detail.

There is absolutely no question the Competition Bureau will look at this transaction very closely given to market dominance issues in YUL to the Sun and Canada in general to Europe.

There is very little chance they would approve the merger without a number of conditions that AC may find very difficult to swallow.

This represents a dramatic reduction of competition, and that sort of thing is a big issue, especially in an election year and especially with the house due to rise in about a months time, and not reconvening until after a fall election, and potentially a change in Gov't. There won't be time for any parliamentary committees to deal with this prior to election. Trudeau / the Libs are already in big trouble, (ask a cabbie in Montreal what he thinks of Trudeau), and slamming this one through would be close to political suicide.

Transat is in no danger of going under, which was not the case in 1999 with AC/CP.

Airline competition in Canada is a massive hot button these days. Any consolidation that results in a reduction of choice won't be looked at favorably, by voters or government.

And talk about adding another layer to the already complex, high cost operations at AC?

Stay tuned.....

Lets see what the Competition Bureau decides. Sell-off parts to Onex?

Or could the end game be to sell to Onex in the first place? Air Transat initiate talks with Air Canada. Air Canada initiate Competiton Bureau application. Sale to Air Canada declined. Sale to Onex creates more balance.
 
ac7e7
Posts: 747
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:27 am

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sat May 18, 2019 10:51 pm

smartplane wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
The devil will be in the detail.

There is absolutely no question the Competition Bureau will look at this transaction very closely given to market dominance issues in YUL to the Sun and Canada in general to Europe.

There is very little chance they would approve the merger without a number of conditions that AC may find very difficult to swallow.

This represents a dramatic reduction of competition, and that sort of thing is a big issue, especially in an election year and especially with the house due to rise in about a months time, and not reconvening until after a fall election, and potentially a change in Gov't. There won't be time for any parliamentary committees to deal with this prior to election. Trudeau / the Libs are already in big trouble, (ask a cabbie in Montreal what he thinks of Trudeau), and slamming this one through would be close to political suicide.

Transat is in no danger of going under, which was not the case in 1999 with AC/CP.

Airline competition in Canada is a massive hot button these days. Any consolidation that results in a reduction of choice won't be looked at favorably, by voters or government.

And talk about adding another layer to the already complex, high cost operations at AC?

Stay tuned.....

Lets see what the Competition Bureau decides. Sell-off parts to Onex?

Or could the end game be to sell to Onex in the first place? Air Transat initiate talks with Air Canada. Air Canada initiate Competiton Bureau application. Sale to Air Canada declined. Sale to Onex creates more balance.


Considering AC agreed to a $40M fee payable to AT if they walk away or the competition bureau rejects the takeover, I think not.

These airlines are not in the business of “balance”. That is the competition bureau’s job (though I disagree with its very existence). Airlines are businesses and they are out there to gain and hold market share, while at the same time turning a profit.

If AC thought AT was a dog, they would let Onex/Wesjet take it over and live with the debt (Wardair anyone?). AT is not looking for ‘balance’. They are looking out for their shareholders.
 
User avatar
cirrusdragoon
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Sun May 19, 2019 1:47 am

ac7e7 wrote:
smartplane wrote:
jimbo737 wrote:
The devil will be in the detail.

There is absolutely no question the Competition Bureau will look at this transaction very closely given to market dominance issues in YUL to the Sun and Canada in general to Europe.

There is very little chance they would approve the merger without a number of conditions that AC may find very difficult to swallow.

This represents a dramatic reduction of competition, and that sort of thing is a big issue, especially in an election year and especially with the house due to rise in about a months time, and not reconvening until after a fall election, and potentially a change in Gov't. There won't be time for any parliamentary committees to deal with this prior to election. Trudeau / the Libs are already in big trouble, (ask a cabbie in Montreal what he thinks of Trudeau), and slamming this one through would be close to political suicide.

Transat is in no danger of going under, which was not the case in 1999 with AC/CP.

Airline competition in Canada is a massive hot button these days. Any consolidation that results in a reduction of choice won't be looked at favorably, by voters or government.

And talk about adding another layer to the already complex, high cost operations at AC?

Stay tuned.....

Lets see what the Competition Bureau decides. Sell-off parts to Onex?

Or could the end game be to sell to Onex in the first place? Air Transat initiate talks with Air Canada. Air Canada initiate Competiton Bureau application. Sale to Air Canada declined. Sale to Onex creates more balance.


Considering AC agreed to a $40M fee payable to AT if they walk away or the competition bureau rejects the takeover, I think not.

These airlines are not in the business of “balance”. That is the competition bureau’s job (though I disagree with its very existence). Airlines are businesses and they are out there to gain and hold market share, while at the same time turning a profit.

If AC thought AT was a dog, they would let Onex/Wesjet take it over and live with the debt (Wardair anyone?). AT is not looking for ‘balance’. They are looking out for their shareholders.


Except in this case TS has zero debt on their balance sheet , correct me if I am wrong?

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