Search found 992 matches

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by sxf24
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian B77F on fire at PVG
Replies: 93
Views: 29245

Re: Ethiopian B77F on fire at PVG

How does the insurance work for airliners? If one is written off like this will the insurer replace the plane, or do airlines just use a liability only cover? Not sure about this frame, but a lot of major carriers self-insure their frames, meaning they would be footing the bill themselves. With lar...

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by sxf24
Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry
Replies: 51
Views: 13486

Re: Inching towards a collapse of the leasing industry

There are many misconceptions in this thread about leasing. The large lessors, e.g. AerCap, ALC, GECAS, have very diverse portfolios and strong liquidity to support their operations for years without any rent. There are definitely going to be bumps in the road as wide body aircraft are returned in a...

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by sxf24
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Aeroméxico files for Chapter 11
Replies: 102
Views: 20303

Re: Updated: Aeroméxico files for Chapter 11

DL investment airlines seem to be doing well... This is a common refrain around here lately, but I don't think the strategy was bad overall. Delta has been a value investor in other airlines - they have consistently stepped in to make investments in struggling carriers that unlock value by bringing...

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by sxf24
Mon Jun 01, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL to acquire 7 A350’s from QR
Replies: 96
Views: 24291

Re: Rumor: DL to acquire 7 A350’s from QR

A couple of things: If the A321XLR order was a means to get out of the A350 order, why has it not been cancelled? Also: 50 XLRs won't compensate for the loss of 45 A350 orders for Airbus. Why it has not been cancelled? Trend is that Airbus will always push hard to avoid order cancellation. Note tha...

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by sxf24
Thu May 28, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL to acquire 7 A350’s from QR
Replies: 96
Views: 24291

Re: Rumor: DL to acquire 7 A350’s from QR

Uh, hello? If recipients of CARES Act Payroll Support can’t provide capital to their investments, how could they go commit $1B to airplanes they don’t need? I see a desperate attempt to create a narrative. Purchasing aircraft is a normal part of business. CARES suspends dividends and stock buybacks...

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by sxf24
Thu May 28, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 298
Views: 60219

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

The LATAM/AA JV was agreed apparently by the Brazilian Government but the Chilean one threw a spanner on it. Then it approved the JV with Delta. The Brazilian Government seems to have provided a rescue package for LATAM (Brasil only... I presume...) but the Chilean Government did nothing so far. DL...

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by sxf24
Thu May 28, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL to acquire 7 A350’s from QR
Replies: 96
Views: 24291

Re: Rumor: DL to acquire 7 A350’s from QR

Uh, hello? If recipients of CARES Act Payroll Support can’t provide capital to their investments, how could they go commit $1B to airplanes they don’t need? I see a desperate attempt to create a narrative.

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by sxf24
Tue May 26, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19701

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel A350 Purchase from LATAM

Great companies always honor their obligations! Promises made, promises kept.

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by sxf24
Sun May 24, 2020 4:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 298
Views: 60219

Re: LATAM moving towards bankruptcy

Something it is true, LATAM would love to have AA right now to flow their passengers beyond MIA at this time. Now AA gets to flow interior US to their international destinations on their own metal and LATAM, well they can keep Punta Arenas At least until AA collapses. Then what? If you mean AA is n...

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by sxf24
Sun May 24, 2020 1:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 298
Views: 60219

Re: LATAM moving towards bankruptcy

LATAM has missed multiple debt payments. It has limited opportunities to raise more cash and there’s increased speculation it could file for bankruptcy in the next few weeks. Without restructuring, current cash could be depleted by September. Delta’s $1.9B investment is now worth about $300M. Any e...

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by sxf24
Sun May 24, 2020 12:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 298
Views: 60219

Re: LATAM moving towards bankruptcy

While it is tough to argue Delta’s move WAS brilliant, in hindsight it was poorly timed and will probably amount to setting a dumpster full of money on fire. I must admit that I never would have expected LATAM to file for bankruptcy but when it happens, and I’m now certain it will, their future will...

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by sxf24
Sat May 23, 2020 3:47 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DOT Grants tentative Approval to 15 US Airlines to Drop service to 75 airports
Replies: 88
Views: 13301

Re: DOT Grants tentative Approval to 15 US Airlines to Drop service to 75 airports

DeltaRules wrote:
Insertnamehere wrote:
Alaska dropping CMH is a bit of a surprise


I don't get it. They just announced it was going double-daily during the Summer (prior to COVID), too. Are they just ceding the route to DL? :confused:


Delta is not flying SEA-CMH and I doubt they resume it this summer.

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by sxf24
Sat May 23, 2020 3:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 298
Views: 60219

Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

LATAM has missed multiple debt payments. It has limited opportunities to raise more cash and there’s increased speculation it could file for bankruptcy in the next few weeks. Without restructuring, current cash could be depleted by September. From Fitch Ratings: “LATAM continues seek different avenu...

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by sxf24
Mon May 18, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Delta to Convert Some Planes to All Delta One Suites
Replies: 64
Views: 15723

Re: Rumor: Delta to Convert Some Planes to All Delta One Suites

MIflyer12 wrote:
Maybe they're looking at this to replace the (very old, but generally lightly utilized) 75C charter fleet.


Although Delta operates this fleet, they no longer own it.

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by sxf24
Mon May 04, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Richard Aboulafia: China Won’t Rescue Embraer.
Replies: 43
Views: 6116

Re: Richard Aboulafia: China Won’t Rescue Embraer.

Why would anyone pay serious money for something that can be bought for next to nothing in a couple of months? Exactly. They will be interested soon enough. They will be buying companies left and right with these low stock prices due to Corona. You can say anithing about the Chinese, but not that t...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce
Replies: 38
Views: 5784

Re: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce

You can manage the balance sheet by borrowing or repaying debt, issuing stock or spending cash. You can’t just say, at the end of the quarter, we need to make this change to get a certain ratio or result. That is illegal. Yes you can, it happens each quarter, and especially at yearend. Financial fi...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Anywhere from $3k to $5k per seat set. At the low end it would cost DL about $5.5 million for the seats on all 91 717s. That doesn’t include certification, customization, installation or out of service costs. While a few million dollars is chump change to a multi billion dollar company in normal ti...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

The AD, if I’m not mistaken, specifically mandated replacement not modified. New seats are very expensive and combined with lease costs it makes keeping the 717 a less attractive option than a other paid for aircraft. The name of the game right now is to reduce cash outlays where ever possible. How...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce
Replies: 38
Views: 5784

Re: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce

Manipulation is a strong word as it implies illegal activity. You may want to reconsider how you choose to describe your opinion. I have 30 years in the Financial industry - Manipulation is one of the weakest words I could use. Indeed, manipulation doesn't necessarily means illegal in finance terms...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

How much could Boeing save per year, if they could stop the entire 717 service operations immediately incl. the scraping of all spar parts, simulators etc.? If all 717 operators would return their planes and switch to 737MAX, they would still earn the service fees for a similar number of airplanes....

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce
Replies: 38
Views: 5784

Re: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce

A couple of funny things in the quarterly report - an $827 Million pre-tax charge on KC-46 and an $862 Million Income tax recovery. Net earnings (however meaningless they are as they can be manipulated so much) might have been close to 0 if no KC-46 Charge. Manipulation is a strong word as it impli...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

How much could Boeing save per year, if they could stop the entire 717 service operations immediately incl. the scraping of all spar parts, simulators etc.? If all 717 operators would return their planes and switch to 737MAX, they would still earn the service fees for a similar number of airplanes....

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by sxf24
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce
Replies: 38
Views: 5784

Re: Boeing announces wider Q1 loss, cuts 787/777 production and workforce

A couple of funny things in the quarterly report - an $827 Million pre-tax charge on KC-46 and an $862 Million Income tax recovery. Net earnings (however meaningless they are as they can be manipulated so much) might have been close to 0 if no KC-46 Charge. Manipulation is a strong word as it impli...

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by sxf24
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Which is a little tiny bit different that "there are no Force Majeure in business contracts": Commercial Aircraft Leases are Business Contracts, not all Business Contracts are Commercial Leases. By the way, please learn to spell "force majeure" correctly. If you want to get tech...

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by sxf24
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

What are you talking about? Every single B2B Purchase Order I've seen (which is a contract) includes a Force Majeure clause; that's how companies get out of paying Late Fees or prevent the Customer from cancelling the Order. There. Are. No. Force Majuere. Clauses. In. Aircraft. Leases. Which is a l...

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by sxf24
Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Delta probably did not offer to take any 737 MAX aircraft. There is always fource majour with the 717s. My spelling is wrong over the 717s. :old: There is no force majuere in business contracts. They can break the lease and sued or file bankruptcy and void the lease What are you talking about? Ever...

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by sxf24
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer
Replies: 1171
Views: 147669

Re: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer

Feels to me like the EU just saved Boeing $4Bn in cash …… Rgds :) I think Boeing would have pulled the plug even if the EU had approved before the deadline. As it is, it appears that it will cost Boeing $100M to save that $4Bn in cash . . . . I expect a major issue is that Boeing wanted to pay less...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order
Replies: 57
Views: 9909

Re: ALAFCO Sues Boeing Over Max

I wonder what Boeing considers "non-excusable delay". March 6th was before COVID-19 came into play for the US, thus COVID-19 shouldn't be the excuse for Boeing. Grounding by the FAA perhaps? Yeah but they were not grounded because the FAA had nothing better to do. They were grounded becau...

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by sxf24
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is being forced to give larger discounts
Replies: 66
Views: 10315

Re: Boeing is being forced to give larger discounts

What about QR? They have received 7 B789s lately. It almost certainly has to be Qatar. This is normal behavior for them, especially talking about it to the media. ET’s delivery was leased from AerCap. I think Gulf and Oman have 787s ready but can’t currently leave their countries to take delivery.

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by sxf24
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

The B717 fleet is probably very cheap to lease. It has no market outside of DL. It's a dinosaur on its way out about to be replaced by the A220. This fleet probably isn't that big a burden on DL. In addition, I would be shocked if lease contracts didn't have some form of force majeure clause. Lease...

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by sxf24
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63231

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

I’m flabbergasted that some people think Delta needs/wants new airplanes but United doesn’t and can’t buy them. United has taken delivery of a 777-300ER and 787-10 since the pandemic started. They also have older narrowbody aircraft that need to be replaced.

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by sxf24
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Boeing production is considered essential by Washington State and the federal government. T he state and CDC are heavily involved in this decision . A NYT article from the 16th says: “We have talked about the prospect of Boeing reopening because they are essential, and I’m glad they’ve committed to...

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by sxf24
Sun Apr 19, 2020 1:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Questions remain. Like: 1) Are airlines, who want those new planes, ready to put their money where their mouths are? Because sustaining airplane programs needs to be paid for. 1) More specifically, is Ryanair ready to put their money where their mouth is? Like actually paying for those MAXes they a...

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by sxf24
Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

How do you pay your bills? A mixture of hard work, good luck, and preparation. I've worked from age 14 onward. When I got my first professional job I lived at home till I could pay off my college debts and could afford to move to my own place AND have a "rainy day fund" that covered four ...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

I dislike when people suggest that those who are more concerned over the economy value money over health. While technically correct, it makes it seem like the argument is coming from a place of greed. When in reality, most people more concerned over the economy then their health, just don't want to...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

I don't see where that says anything about having to return advance payments, however. I am under the impression that if an airline outright cancels an order under these circumstances that money is gone. That's why it would probably be better to just defer the order. It’s in the same section 11, “ ...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff
Replies: 250
Views: 51895

Re: Updated: SAA shrinks even further, laying off staff

davidjohnson6 wrote:
SAA has been losing money for years. Has Comair been profitable in the last few years ?


Comair was always profitable until the most recent year. They’re owed a lot of money by SAA, which they will probably never see. Regardless, I think they can survive.

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Washington State identified transportation equipment manufacturing as an essential industry. Boeing is therefore entitled to continue normal operations. I’m not going to debate the rationale of the state’s decision. However as a Washington State resident I recognize Boeing’s tax payments from reven...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

As I wrote in another thread, N95 means 95% effective at blocking foreign particles, 5% not effective. I think Boeing is taking a huge risk of being sued if any of its workers get seriously ill or die. ". If a vaccine is found tomorrow, the law suits at least in the USA will start immediately ...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

Boeing advance payments are typically 25-30% of catalog price, though subject to negotiation. Boeing could be motivated to cancel if they didn’t think the airline would accept the delivery. Depends on the customer and build stage of each aircraft. Milestone payments are often deferred, or more prot...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Boeing production is considered essential by Washington State and the federal government. What is the rationale? I read the Seattle Times story on this ( https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-will-resume-work-in-phases-next-week-including-a-restart-of-737-max-production-prep...

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by sxf24
Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Boeing production is considered essential by Washington State and the federal government. The state and CDC are heavily involved in this decision. Workers have a choice about returning, or staying home unpaid. It’s a choice we will all face at some point since it is impossible to stay sheltered in p...

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by sxf24
Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

If you’re not a lawyer, you shouldn’t pretend to interpret contracts. Clauses must be read as a whole, not with words or phrases isolated. Plus, the standard for “substantial” is not 30-35%. In numerous contracts I have read, that is what substantial is defined as, I know the IRS has a lower standa...

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by sxf24
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production
Replies: 144
Views: 19054

Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Per Seattle Times, delay in restarting production was due to supply chain, having masks and other PPE, and other safety measures, such as temperature checks, in place.

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by sxf24
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: GECAS Cancels 69 737 MAX Orders
Replies: 17
Views: 7079

Re: GECAS Cancels 69 737 MAX Orders

those frames was supposed to go to which airline(s)? They weren’t placed, at least implied by GE’s statement. Per Boeing’s statement, this was necessary due to lower production rates. Reading between the lines, there were too many airplanes contracted versus the current production plan. While airli...

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by sxf24
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

Besides, if we read it your way, it’d apply to Boeing too and they could cancel. Under any cancellation scenario, Boeing keeps the PDPs as they fund work performed and parts purchased in advance of delivery. I don’t think any airline wants to go down that path, which is why mutually agreeable resol...

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by sxf24
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

I dont have any inside information to share on the speculation that started this thread. I would like to remind many posters on this thread that the aviation industry is in survival mode, plans that were in place 12 months ago are all invalid. Assumptions built into business cases are invalid. Cash...

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by sxf24
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

Here are facts that I know: - The SLB with BOC Aviation was not for 10 years Well how long was it for then? - CX can’t unilaterally cancel orders. It has to negotiate with the OEMs. Is the pretext for this thread not that CX is in these negotiations right now? The SLB is not for 10 years ;) Negotia...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX
Replies: 36
Views: 9828

Re: GOL cancels 34 737 MAX

I don't think the GOL order is evidence of that. If they had cancelled *all* outstanding MAX orders and replaced them with something else, I would agree with you. But all they did was *reduce* their order. I don't think it's evidence of using the downturn to get out of a junk airplane (though I agr...

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by sxf24
Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41236

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

The Seattle Times article had many errors because Dominic Gates used ex-Boeing employees and bloggers as his sources. Here are facts that I know: - The SLB with BOC Aviation was not for 10 years - Any 77W lessor would love to extend leases right now and would probably cut rent to do so (this goes fo...

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