Search found 6451 matches

by seabosdca
Mon Aug 19, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

In a few years UltraFan will be a business necessity for RR, and one can imagine GE would not react well to seeing UltraFan being mooted for 777x. There would be no point. The 777X works at the margin only because its engine tech is better than the A350's. The wing advantage alone is not enough to ...

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by seabosdca
Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 819
Views: 159745

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

Also their 777 fleet is young I could see them buying second hand 777’s before any new 777x. DL was never into large widebodies. DL hasn't bought any used widebodies since the GF 763 lemons, and I'd bet against them doing it again. If incremental widebody lift is needed it will come in the form of ...

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by seabosdca
Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Let's not pretend this sort of contest is just about money. There's all sorts of corporate and even national/regional pride bound up in these sorts of projects. Honestly I think Airbus sped through some warning signs on the A380 partly because its management wanted to prove that it could be dominant...

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by seabosdca
Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest, a stalwart Boeing 737 MAX customer, eyes other jets
Replies: 205
Views: 31022

Re: Southwest, a stalwart Boeing 737 MAX customer, eyes other jets

The single type certificate is a huge deal for them, planning and expense wise. If Boeing can’t make it work, they may be forced to look into the 318-321 family. If Southwest signed a deal to swap the entire fleet to Airbus tomorrow, they would be operating two types for the next decade and a half....

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by seabosdca
Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Perhaps a fleet of all-J, 260 t 787-9s to open the route, sold cheap enough to make reconfiguring it to vanilla configuration when the 777-8 enters service worth it, or on short-term lease? And... to respond to my own post, this isn't feasible without a 787 AFT that no one has developed yet. The 78...

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by seabosdca
Fri Aug 16, 2019 12:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

The wording about "seamless transition" is the only interesting part of that Boeing quote. It does suggest that the 777-8 may look a little different than originally planned. I'm skeptical that Qantas will want to delay Sunrise, even if there is going to be a global contraction. There will...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 640
Views: 166047

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/11 ... 58081?s=20


If GE needed the engines back, that would certainly explain the hurry to complete a bunch of powered ground testing.
-->

qf789 wrote:
Engines are being removed from N779XW today

https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/11 ... 58081?s=20


If GE needed the engines back, that would certainly explain the hurry to complete a bunch of powered ground testing.

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing delays 777-8X entry into service
Replies: 154
Views: 25360

Re: Boeing delays 777-8X entry into service

So let's think about 787 growth, which a few posters are throwing around as a way for Boeing to get back into the 350-seat game. Approach A is to wait for substantial engine improvements. Airbus is clearly hoping for a new A350 engine in the mid- to late 2020s. There hasn't been as much chatter out ...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 819
Views: 159745

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

Will DL order the 77X? Probably not, for the same reason they never ordered the 77W. Every airline customer of the 777X so far is a single-hub airline (except arguably Lufthansa, but they only have one that matters). With their multi-hub structures, US airlines do better with multiple flights from ...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest, a stalwart Boeing 737 MAX customer, eyes other jets
Replies: 205
Views: 31022

Re: Southwest, a stalwart Boeing 737 MAX customer, eyes other jets

Good God, the drama. There is really nothing new here, except that Boeing is in a weaker negotiating position than usual. WN has publicly talked about looking at both the C-Series/A220 and the A320 on multiple occasions over the last 15 years or so. It would obviously be an expensive transition, bec...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 758
Views: 131804

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

EK said at the time that the 339 decision was driven partly by availability. I don't see why the 339s would be canceled. A contraction scenario IMO is: 359 and possibly later delivery 339 all converted to 35KULR 778 + some 779 converted to 787 (probably a mix of -9 and -10, maybe just -10); enough 7...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta ramp agent killed at JFK
Replies: 30
Views: 10619

Re: Delta ramp agent killed at JFK

:brokenheart: Please stay safe out there!

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

4) Qatar either also signaling their intent to cancel/convert their 777-8 orders as the only customer, or being convinced to do so by Boeing, who do not want to invest in the program anymore for only 10 deliveries (QR's current order book of the model). I don't think Qatar particularly cares what a...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing delays 777-8X entry into service
Replies: 154
Views: 25360

Re: 778x mothballed?

Apparently delayed, but supposedly B is offering something to keep in the game...I'm assuming some cheap Dreamliners, -9X, or early 797 access as they've expressed a lot of interest in that. Not sure what they could offer. A 260 t 787-9 would do a lot of things for Qantas, but not quite LHR. Same w...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing delays 777-8X entry into service
Replies: 154
Views: 25360

Re: 778x mothballed?

Well, that's presumably the Sunrise announcement. If QF wants the A350, and EK is looking at spacing out the 777X order, and EY is deferring most of the 777X, and QR is more concerned with taking any aircraft for geopolitical reasons than exactly which aircraft it's taking, then... there's not much ...

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by seabosdca
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why didn't the B753 sell better?
Replies: 109
Views: 16411

Re: Why didn't the B753 sell better?

For all its warts, the 757-300 was far and away the lowest-CASM mainline commercial aircraft until the A320neo and 737 MAX showed up. The lack of orders had two causes IMO: timing, as discussed above, and lack of commonality with the 737 and A320 families that the airlines could see were their long-...

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by seabosdca
Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 640
Views: 166047

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

smartplane wrote:
Seeing an aircraft moving under it's own power on the ground does nothing for buyer confidence, or willingness to switch tranches of conditional orders to unconditional, especially when aware of air frame and engine issues.


Airframe issues? So far the delay has been about the GE9x.

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by seabosdca
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Icelandair considers A321neo and possible all-Airbus fleet
Replies: 146
Views: 26946

Re: Icelandair considers A321neo and possible all-Airbus fleet

If correct, probably a sign that either NMA is slipping further or Boeing told FI "sorry, bigger customers are likely to take the delivery dates you wanted."

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by seabosdca
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 640
Views: 166047

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

A high-speed taxi test took place yesterday. Has there ever been a program where first flight was delayed and yet this sort of ground testing, which usually happens shortly before first flight, continued on schedule? I'm wondering if Boeing is still hoping for some way to fly earlier than currently ...

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by seabosdca
Fri Aug 09, 2019 6:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More Bad News for Boeing: Poor quality complaints from customers
Replies: 95
Views: 24915

Re: More Bad News for Boeing: Poor quality complaints from customers

This is an emotional response to utterly business calculations. I don't agree with the poster you were responding to, but I don't think Boeing has made all of these decisions with perfect business rationality. IMO both Stonecipher and McNerney sometimes put too much weight on anti-union sentiment. ...

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by seabosdca
Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: More Bad News for Boeing: Poor quality complaints from customers
Replies: 95
Views: 24915

Re: More Bad News for Boeing: Poor quality complaints from customers

Costs vs. quality control is a perennial source of tension for every manufacturer, but these kinds of public-facing customer complaints are very unusual when the customers are large businesses. I think Boeing probably needs to correct course a bit. The Charleston plant has been a source of difficult...

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by seabosdca
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Orders/Leasing 2 x 777-300s (unconfirmed) and Converts 789s to 10s (confirmed)
Replies: 75
Views: 12724

Re: KLM Orders/Leasing 2 x 777-300s (unconfirmed) and Converts 789s to 10s (confirmed)

Noise level debates are frustrating because (a) different people hear different timbres of noise very differently and (b) noise changes so much with just small changes in location. In any event, I can't imagine that Schiphol will punish KLM, its largest airline and the hometown one, for operating 77...

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by seabosdca
Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 In-Service Thread - 2019
Replies: 90
Views: 14034

Re: 787 In-Service Thread - 2019

RR engine issues.

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by seabosdca
Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 164
Views: 24938

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

I can't believe we have had a year of arguing over a number that tells investors more about Boeing's situation in 2011 than its situation today. The deferred production cost that remains today is an artifact of Boeing's massive screwup in designing the 787 production process, a screwup which had mos...

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by seabosdca
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: KLM Orders/Leasing 2 x 777-300s (unconfirmed) and Converts 789s to 10s (confirmed)
Replies: 75
Views: 12724

Re: Rumour: KLM Orders 2 x 777-300s and Converts 789s to 10s

I don't think this will be the last 789 -> 78J conversion.

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by seabosdca
Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787-10 Missions in the transpacific market
Replies: 111
Views: 25692

Re: Boeing 787-10 Missions in the transpacific market

I expect those reporters are conflating the 787 variants. It's entirely possible that NZ could use a 787-9 on JFK, especially if it orders a few new builds with higher MTOW. Not remotely possible that it could be a 787-10.

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by seabosdca
Tue Aug 06, 2019 2:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787-10 Missions in the transpacific market
Replies: 111
Views: 25692

Re: Boeing 787-10 Missions in the transpacific market

NZ will need more capacity on LAX/SFO and more range on other North American routes. But a lot of people sell the 787-10 short. I think they use the regular-weight (233/230 t) A330-300 and the 777-300A as mental shortcuts for thinking about what it can do, and it is a good deal more capable than eit...

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by seabosdca
Mon Aug 05, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787-10 Missions in the transpacific market
Replies: 111
Views: 25692

Re: Boeing 787-10 Missions in the transpacific market

Varsity1 wrote:
Who came up with 78J? I feel like half these codes come from A.net itself.


IATA = 78J
ICAO = B78X

It would be far less confusing if the two organizations had chosen the same last character. The same thing happened to the A350-1000; its IATA code is 351, and its ICAO code is A35K.

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by seabosdca
Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Tower Air
Replies: 96
Views: 15703

Re: Tower Air

It's one of the world's small miracles that Tower Air never had a crash, given the state of their 747s. We don't have any passenger operators in the US today with such poor maintenance practices.

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Any chance to save the A380 still?
Replies: 95
Views: 9218

Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

I think Boeing could be in the beginnings of some real dark times due to the 737max. They are putting so much focus on that that their other two projects the NMA and the 777x are not getting the resources they normally would. This doesn't make sense. Each of these three programs is in a different s...

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Has the Max 8 been damaged as badly as DC-10 in the mind of the public?
Replies: 55
Views: 5215

Re: Has the Max 8 been damaged as badly as DC-10 in the mind of the public?

Yes, the MAX brand is permanently damaged. Expect lots and lots of airlines to refer to their aircraft just as "737-8" and "737-10."

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by seabosdca
Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 640
Views: 166047

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

IMU and afair all talk was about the 777 CFRP wing being a (more or less, scaling rules apply ) upsized 787 derivation!? :checkmark: By all appearances it has more in common with the 787 wing than the 777 Classic/LR wing. In any event it seems rather unlikely that they didn't take into account the ...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:11 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Any chance to save the A380 still?
Replies: 95
Views: 9218

Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

So apart from Emirates, who do we expect to be other "last men standing" among the A380 operators? SQ, as noted. QF, because the extra capacity really does offer revenue potential on LAX. I don't expect any of the European operators to stick with it for as long. And of the A380s that reti...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

QF like most airlines have different aircraft for different market segments. An order for the 777-8 or A350 will not prevent QF from ordering more 787s, A330s, or choosing A350s or 777-9s. QF will have the capacity overlap between the 787/A330 and the sunrise aircraft. The sunrise aircraft I will n...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1492
Views: 271724

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

And Alan Joyce has also said it is independent of other fleet plans. Sometimes CEOs have to say silly things for strategic reasons. :liar: That is just such a silly thing. Of course an order of 10 ULH widebody aircraft will have an impact on the overall fleet plan of an airline that operates 55 wid...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 747 Delivery/Production Thread - 2019
Replies: 146
Views: 36531

Re: 747 Delivery/Production Thread - 2019

Chance of Boeing cooperating with any program to create a 747-8 converted freighter when it is still taking orders for new-build 747-8 freighters: zero. There are two unwanted 747-8 passenger frames. If it were economic to convert either one to airline use for one of the three existing airline custo...

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by seabosdca
Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 89
Views: 17728

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

All of United's 737s are ETOPS, NGs and MAXs. The 737 additions will also be ETOPS. All Airbuses are not ETOPS. Interesting. If they aren't already ETOPS -- and I don't know where you'd get a bunch of ETOPS 73Gs at the moment -- I can't imagine that there's a good business case for getting the addi...

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by seabosdca
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 89
Views: 17728

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

Was pretty amazed that domestic YoY statistics went up even higher than load factor without the 14 MAXs. Domestic YoY Passenger load factor (points) 0.40 Passengers 3.10% RPMs (traffic) 4.40% ASMs (capacity) 4.00% Pedal to the metal utilization. That works for a little while, but it's not sustainab...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 89
Views: 17728

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

Regarding these 737-700s, are they or will they be ETOPs certified? Or, are they just going to remain in the continental United States? Too early to know? Just curious if they'll be more or less stock, or if United will deploy them on routes that the MAX might have been used for, like Hawaii and Ca...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 89
Views: 17728

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

Interesting to realize that under its original order UA would now be operating well more than this number of new 737-700s... but would have paid a lot more for them. In any event, a nice quarter for an organization under the gun from the missing MAXes. I expect the difference in fuel price has a lot...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1256
Views: 170690

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Airbus widebodies from A310 to A380 have all had a luxe "standard" configuration and a <17" "charter" configuration. Boeing widebodies have been inconsistent. The 747, 777X, and 787 were designed around a single configuration (hot-air 8Y 787 marketing notwithstanding) with n...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AC A330 Fleet News and Updates Discussion Thread
Replies: 327
Views: 89085

Re: AC A330 Fleet News and Updates Discussion Thread

I think the idea of the A330s was flex capacity, that is capacity that they can shed quickly in a downturn. A lot of airlines have had a lot of success by maintaining a mix of new builds that require and tolerate high utilization and older aircraft that can dial the utilization up (to a point) or d...

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by seabosdca
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Plus Ultra to acquire A340-600s
Replies: 17
Views: 6981

Re: Plus Ultra to acquire A340-600s

Hard to believe they are taking 346s when they already have 343s in the fleet and there are a number of good later-build 343s on the market. The Trent 500 is, well, not exactly a CFM56 in terms of maintenance costs. The 343 is a good low-utilization airframe today; the 345/346, not so much.

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by seabosdca
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1256
Views: 170690

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Seems they want to hit that 767-300-not-ER spot pretty hard, then fill in with the 767-200-not-ER below it. 5200 nm is closer to 767-300ER than 767-300A. This seems like an aircraft that's targeted as a 767 replacement for the US3 and a growth aircraft for Asian airlines currently feasting on A321s.

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by seabosdca
Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 819
Views: 159745

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

I've noticed the past 2 days the A339 cruise pretty high on initial climb out of Ksea....yesterday was Fl360 and today is Fl380....those improvements are working wonderfully It has a big wing, a lot of thrust, and likely on these flights a lot of MTOW headroom. Today's big twins in general have imp...

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by seabosdca
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 819
Views: 159745

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

Dangit, I was on a meeting in the wrong side of the building and missed its arrival!

The PVG-SEA flight arrives before I usually get to work, so seeing a 339 out the window will still be a rare treat for a little while.

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 819
Views: 159745

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

Once the 767-300ERs are all gone (which will be a few years down the line for the later ones), Delta is going to have to equip another aircraft for leisure routes with low premium demand. I suspect it should be a relatively small aircraft, maybe the 797 if it comes to fruition, or otherwise the 764 ...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2019 Orders
Replies: 200
Views: 57719

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2019 Orders

The 767F in its old age has become the 800-pound gorilla of the package freight market. Incredible how many of them package carriers are absorbing.

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?
Replies: 54
Views: 6492

Re: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?

To justify introducing a new type in the fleet, there would need to be at least a few missions in Delta's network where the 737MAX would work (far) better than any A220/A320-family counterpart. In other words, what can a MAX do for DL that an A22X/A32X can't? Not necessarily true. The deal would ju...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:16 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?
Replies: 54
Views: 6492

Re: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?

The answer to every question of this sort, at least about major airlines in western countries, is "because its analysis said whatever aircraft the airline actually ordered would be more profitable." Why was that true in this case? Probably mostly because of some combination of the price, t...

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