Search found 6415 matches

by seabosdca
Thu Jul 18, 2019 6:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 76
Views: 11543

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

All of United's 737s are ETOPS, NGs and MAXs. The 737 additions will also be ETOPS. All Airbuses are not ETOPS. Interesting. If they aren't already ETOPS -- and I don't know where you'd get a bunch of ETOPS 73Gs at the moment -- I can't imagine that there's a good business case for getting the addi...

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by seabosdca
Thu Jul 18, 2019 5:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 76
Views: 11543

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

Was pretty amazed that domestic YoY statistics went up even higher than load factor without the 14 MAXs. Domestic YoY Passenger load factor (points) 0.40 Passengers 3.10% RPMs (traffic) 4.40% ASMs (capacity) 4.00% Pedal to the metal utilization. That works for a little while, but it's not sustainab...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 17, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 76
Views: 11543

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

Regarding these 737-700s, are they or will they be ETOPs certified? Or, are they just going to remain in the continental United States? Too early to know? Just curious if they'll be more or less stock, or if United will deploy them on routes that the MAX might have been used for, like Hawaii and Ca...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737
Replies: 76
Views: 11543

Re: United beats on 2Q earnings, adding used 737

Interesting to realize that under its original order UA would now be operating well more than this number of new 737-700s... but would have paid a lot more for them. In any event, a nice quarter for an organization under the gun from the missing MAXes. I expect the difference in fuel price has a lot...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1049
Views: 145062

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Airbus widebodies from A310 to A380 have all had a luxe "standard" configuration and a <17" "charter" configuration. Boeing widebodies have been inconsistent. The 747, 777X, and 787 were designed around a single configuration (hot-air 8Y 787 marketing notwithstanding) with n...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AC A330 Fleet News and Updates Discussion Thread
Replies: 299
Views: 81854

Re: AC A330 Fleet News and Updates Discussion Thread

I think the idea of the A330s was flex capacity, that is capacity that they can shed quickly in a downturn. A lot of airlines have had a lot of success by maintaining a mix of new builds that require and tolerate high utilization and older aircraft that can dial the utilization up (to a point) or d...

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by seabosdca
Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Plus Ultra to acquire A340-600s
Replies: 17
Views: 6904

Re: Plus Ultra to acquire A340-600s

Hard to believe they are taking 346s when they already have 343s in the fleet and there are a number of good later-build 343s on the market. The Trent 500 is, well, not exactly a CFM56 in terms of maintenance costs. The 343 is a good low-utilization airframe today; the 345/346, not so much.

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by seabosdca
Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1049
Views: 145062

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Seems they want to hit that 767-300-not-ER spot pretty hard, then fill in with the 767-200-not-ER below it. 5200 nm is closer to 767-300ER than 767-300A. This seems like an aircraft that's targeted as a 767 replacement for the US3 and a growth aircraft for Asian airlines currently feasting on A321s.

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by seabosdca
Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 729
Views: 143273

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

I've noticed the past 2 days the A339 cruise pretty high on initial climb out of Ksea....yesterday was Fl360 and today is Fl380....those improvements are working wonderfully It has a big wing, a lot of thrust, and likely on these flights a lot of MTOW headroom. Today's big twins in general have imp...

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by seabosdca
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 729
Views: 143273

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

Dangit, I was on a meeting in the wrong side of the building and missed its arrival!

The PVG-SEA flight arrives before I usually get to work, so seeing a 339 out the window will still be a rare treat for a little while.

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 729
Views: 143273

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

Once the 767-300ERs are all gone (which will be a few years down the line for the later ones), Delta is going to have to equip another aircraft for leisure routes with low premium demand. I suspect it should be a relatively small aircraft, maybe the 797 if it comes to fruition, or otherwise the 764 ...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus And Boeing 2019 Orders
Replies: 182
Views: 52327

Re: Airbus And Boeing 2019 Orders

The 767F in its old age has become the 800-pound gorilla of the package freight market. Incredible how many of them package carriers are absorbing.

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?
Replies: 54
Views: 6294

Re: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?

To justify introducing a new type in the fleet, there would need to be at least a few missions in Delta's network where the 737MAX would work (far) better than any A220/A320-family counterpart. In other words, what can a MAX do for DL that an A22X/A32X can't? Not necessarily true. The deal would ju...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:16 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?
Replies: 54
Views: 6294

Re: Why didn’t Delta order the 737 MAX?

The answer to every question of this sort, at least about major airlines in western countries, is "because its analysis said whatever aircraft the airline actually ordered would be more profitable." Why was that true in this case? Probably mostly because of some combination of the price, t...

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by seabosdca
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus product range 2028
Replies: 62
Views: 7000

Re: Airbus product range 2028

An awful lot of stretches here, plus an all-new frame serving a very small market. My answer is more boring. I think the Airbus range of 2028 will look like today's, except possibly for the following: A322 - A real possibility IMO. This would be a ~3200 nm frame based on the A321XLR with probably a ...

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by seabosdca
Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 729
Views: 143273

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

tb727 wrote:
Down an A359 due to a lightning strike.


Interesting that they flew it with a 332 rather than their spare 77L.

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by seabosdca
Sat Jul 06, 2019 3:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Leeham had an analyzes where they mention the -8 is 14t lighter than the -9, around 167t. https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/07/boeings-777x-analyzed-part-3/ The idea that an ~8 m difference in fuselage length would only produce a 14 t difference in OEW has never made sense to me, and accordingly that ...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

So many people are so anxious for a direct replacement of an aircraft that is the worst economic failure of a major airframe OEM in most of our lifetimes. Hint: there won't be one. The best solution for current A380 operators: - in extremely high-yielding AND slot-restricted markets, continue using ...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57061

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Airlines moved on. Delta, American, Qantas, Norwegian, Air Astana put their money where their mouth is, while still being "interested" in a NMA. https://www.aerotime.aero/parisaishow/22762-american-qantas-deals-lift-airbus-a321xlr-to-191-orders-already United, Air Canada are left few opti...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 03, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Turkey President Erdogan " TK Will Buy 100 Boeing Jets"
Replies: 53
Views: 14280

Re: Turkey President Erdogan " TK Will Buy 100 Boeing Jets"

747-8 passenger sales are done. There was a heavily spread rumor about a Turkish order for 20x 747-8 a few years ago. The deal turned out to be 787s, but that was certainly the last call. A politically motivated Boeing order will probably be mostly MAX with a dash of widebodies thrown in. TK could f...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57061

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Inbetween the E195 (<132 seats) and your NSA-8 (>180 seats) there would the core of the NB market, maybe 15.000 aircraft in the next 20 years. https://theblogbyjavier.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/boeingcmoinfographic2018.png?w=627&h=481 I think Boeing needs to offer something weighing ~40t empty...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

People here are missing the forest for the trees. I think some of your trees look a bit funny. 1. The 380X got cancelled, the order changed to 30 A350's that will somehow have no effect on the 35 777-8 order, which is a plane with near identical specs to what has now been ordered from Airbus? The A...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57061

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

For better or for worse, Boeing's offering in that size class is going to have to be the E195 E2. I can't see any scenario where it makes sense for Boeing to develop an all-new airliner optimized to cover that ground. In any event I think Southwest is going to have to upgauge to survive, so I think ...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57061

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

I think the two-frame idea has merit, but 3-4 variants of each is too much. Two lengths of each should be sufficient. Use common systems and even subassemblies to the extent possible. If Boeing can find the resources do this, I think they've got a compelling plan for several decades. 6Y NSA - 737 si...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 02, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

We can assume Etihad's orders are done. Qatar will take delivery of some sort of aircraft for geopolitical reasons, but there's no reason any given aircraft has to be a 777-8 rather than a 777-9 or a 787. Emirates had been looking at an Americas strategy that went beyond what its 77L fleet or its cu...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

We've been over this before, but the most plausible reading of Boeing's comments is that they are looking at whether the currently planned timing for the 778 makes sense, not whether the variant as a whole makes sense. If they don't make it eventually they will have no upgrade path for high-utilizat...

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by seabosdca
Mon Jul 01, 2019 7:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

The 339 is a fine aircraft, but it is quite a bit smaller than a 787-10 (unless configured 9Y, which EK won't do). The 787-10 has significant additional revenue potential for a volume-oriented airline like EK, which is why it originally won the contest, until the intensifying A380 economic crisis ca...

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by seabosdca
Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa Cargo considers retiring all MD-11s in 2020
Replies: 41
Views: 8067

Re: Lufthansa Cargo considers retiring all MD-11s in 2020

stylo777 wrote:
Thats an interesting one; didn't know that you can easily put a MD11 engine onto a 767 (despite being the same type...)


MD-11s, later-build 767s (200ER/300ER), and 747-400s use interchangeable engines (provided they aren't RR, which wasn't an option on the MD-11).

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by seabosdca
Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:13 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa Cargo considers retiring all MD-11s in 2020
Replies: 41
Views: 8067

Re: Lufthansa Cargo considers retiring all MD-11s in 2020

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
You mean for LHCargo? I was under the impression that most of the remaining 744s were well over 115.000hrs...


No, I mean for the worldwide MD-11 fleet.

Particularly before the 777Fs started arriving, LH Cargo's MD-11s were used much more intensively than most cargo aircraft.

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by seabosdca
Fri Jun 28, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa Cargo considers retiring all MD-11s in 2020
Replies: 41
Views: 8067

Re: Lufthansa Cargo considers retiring all MD-11s in 2020

I believe LH's older MD-11s are the fleet leaders in hours. I strongly doubt they're going to continue in service.

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by seabosdca
Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 729
Views: 143273

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

DL is marketing the 359 as "New Flagship." But does it matter, when the 359 and refurbished 777 have almost exactly the same hard and soft products?

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by seabosdca
Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 292
Views: 33864

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

lightsaber wrote:
Boeing forgot how to define ICDs. The first 787 was in drawing, met ICD, and was 10.0mm shorter than Boeing expected. oops!


So that's how they mitigated the weight overage. :duck:

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by seabosdca
Wed Jun 26, 2019 5:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Buzzsaw sound on takeoff
Replies: 54
Views: 10086

Re: Buzzsaw sound on takeoff

Acoustics are fickle and unpredictable and you may hear entirely different things by moving just one seat away. On the same aircraft on the same route (so assuming similar takeoff weight), I've heard vastly different noises. Probably the single route I've flown most often in recent years is SEA-DCA-...

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by seabosdca
Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Fate of AI/EY 777-200LRs?
Replies: 16
Views: 3402

Re: Fate of AI/EY 777-200LRs?

IINM, these are also the only 772LRs in the world that were delivered with provisions for the aux tanks, thus giving it its true "world's longest-ranged airliner" capabilities at 9,395nm. Every other airline took their 77Ls with only the standard center tank, and are thus "limited&qu...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 587
Views: 98474

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I have to believe that if Boeing confidently felt they could go to 80m (or longer) back when they were doing the initial discussions with carriers they would have because, IMO, the 777-9 needs all the length it can get to add seats to improve it's per-seat economics against the A350-1000. I think i...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Fate of AI/EY 777-200LRs?
Replies: 16
Views: 3402

Fate of AI/EY 777-200LRs?

Regular readers may remember that Air India dumped five of its original eight 777-200LR frames in a panicky fire sale in 2014. Etihad acquired them, refurbished the interiors, and used them to fly Americas routes for just three years. They are now stored, and it appears they may have been acquired b...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019
Replies: 729
Views: 143273

Re: Delta Widebody Thread - 2019

333: ATL-SEA test flight (N401DZ) So that's what that was! I saw a widebody approaching SEA out my office window this afternoon and couldn't tell what the heck it was. It looked kind of like a 333 but the winglets were all wrong. With some glare around, I had a hard time seeing the livery. Glad to ...

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by seabosdca
Sat Jun 22, 2019 5:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137623

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

I think it was Jon Ostrower who reported that the redesign is already complete, but parts now need to be manufactured, installed, and tested.

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by seabosdca
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137623

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

Looking at the photos, I'm trying to discern the differences between the 777X and the 777-300ER. I know the obvious, but is the landing gear taller on this one and is the dihedral of the wings on the 777X larger? Also noticing we have an additional flap canoe and when the wings unfold, there is sti...

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by seabosdca
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL CEO Says SLC-ICN "On Our Drawing Board"
Replies: 69
Views: 7632

Re: DL CEO Says SLC-ICN "On Our Drawing Board"

This route may be a challenge from a yield perspective, but I don't see why it would be a problem from an equipment perspective. The A330neo has more than enough range to fly it and quite good field performance at SLC's altitude.

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by seabosdca
Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 292
Views: 33864

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

3. Weight reduction PIP occurs (rumored 2.5 tons) :eyepopping: That's one I hadn't heard before. A 2.5 t lighter 787-9 with 260 t MTOW is going to make a serious run at the current 280 t A350-900 with respect to payload range. And those changes will meaningfully expand the universe of TPAC and long...

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by seabosdca
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 292
Views: 33864

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

A focus on this is good for Airbus. It's been clear for a couple of years that the production cost of the A350 was a drag on Airbus sales, and that Airbus was caught flat-footed (along with the rest of the industry) by Boeing's sudden success in that area with the 787. The 777X better watch out! It'...

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by seabosdca
Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137623

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

The massive wings and nacelles have the oddest effect on the aircraft's appearance. It looks almost small. Until you start focusing on known reference points (the cockpit windows, the triple main bogey, nearby objects) and you realize that the thing is actually absolutely enormous.

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by seabosdca
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137623

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

Those wings, with the tips extended... :drool:

Really can't wait to see it take off.

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by seabosdca
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris AIr Show 2019: Other Manufacturers and Engine News and Orders Thread
Replies: 163
Views: 26452

Re: Paris AIr Show 2019: Other Manufacturers and Engine News and Orders Thread

T4thH wrote:
Yes I have to say, I had expected A220 as AF has till now ordered ervery single verion of all Airbus birds, even including the A318.


:boggled: Somehow I missed the pictures of the Air France A340NG? Must have been very pretty.

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by seabosdca
Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Air Show 2019: Boeing News and Orders Thread
Replies: 310
Views: 86903

Re: Paris Air Show 2019: Boeing News and Orders Thread

ikolkyo wrote:
Can’t wait for this to be firmed up to see what nonsense people start saying then.


Sigh. It'll be the Delta A350/A330neo order again, but in reverse.

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: Korean Air signing LOI for 30 787's
Replies: 150
Views: 26026

Re: Korean Air orders further 787’s

Agreed. KE have always operated VLAs while also having a good number of 77Ws to be replaced (a long way out). As this was probably their last chance of getting A350s, 777X seems to be the only thing that can replace those 77Ws. Disagree about the A350. This order was about replacing aging 777-200s ...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris Air Show 2019: Boeing News and Orders Thread
Replies: 310
Views: 86903

Re: Paris Air Show 2019: Boeing News and Orders Thread

No need to invest time into looking. Boeing needed this sale direly and will have given IAG the best deal in history to make it happen. There's nothing Airbus could have done to keep this business without making huge concessions themselves, which given the backlog wouldn't have been worth it. This ...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1333
Views: 230396

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

I expect we can assume a few things about a Boeing claim of this nature: - the 17 t difference involves similar weight of cabin furnishings, catering, etc. (which may or may not be appropriate depending on products installed) - the A350-1000 involved is the 316 t version, when we know the 319 t vers...

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by seabosdca
Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Paris AIr Show 2019: Other Manufacturers and Engine News and Orders Thread
Replies: 163
Views: 26452

Re: Paris AIr Show 2019: Other Manufacturers and Engine News and Orders Thread

It's starting to look like not designing the E175 E2 to conform to existing scope clauses in the U.S. was a serious mistake.

I'm a bit surprised by the lack of international E190/E195 E2 orders to date, though.

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