Search found 2008 matches

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 41
by 81819
Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2020
Replies: 366
Views: 55622

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - July 2020

Perth to be capped at 525 international passenger arrivals per week https://twitter.com/6pr/status/1280349877197631490?s=21 That seems low doesn't it? Max 1050 concurrently in quarantine - even SA have committed to 1200, and NSW 6300. WA have seemed so ... pleased with themselves up until this poin...

Jump to post
by 81819
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68748

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

Maybe they are planning to pickup the remains of TT and there a320 leases at an bargain price? Seems like almost an certain death sentence to them, unless they find an investor with very large pockets. There is no shortage of narrowbodies available for lease but it is a very brave time to be starti...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Qantas to sack 6000 employees, ground 100 aircraft until mid 2021, retires 747 fleet early
Replies: 79
Views: 14120

Re: Qantas to sack 6000 employees, ground 100 aircraft until mid 2021, retires 747 fleet early

Damn. 100 airplanes is half of the combined Qantas/Jetstar fleet. I'm highly skeptical we'll see any of those A380s come back. Does QF own those outright or are they leased/financed? Such a sad way to end the 747 era at Qantas. The A380's were financed through syndicated loans. Unfortunately, we do...

Jump to post
by 81819
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

The Virgin brand is fairly old and as such people of an older generation probably relate to the brand (and its ethos) than people of younger generations. Still, I think it is fair to say the Virgin name has very high brand awareness and regardless of the administration of VA is still seen as a credi...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sat Jun 13, 2020 6:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020
Replies: 495
Views: 68748

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - June 2020

They could be planning to buy the jets using a combination of debt and capital. So, in real terms the share raising could have a subsequent debt raising associated with it.

Time will tell!

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Jetstar livery
Replies: 31
Views: 7416

Re: New Jetstar livery

This could gives us some reasons for the livery change. The revised livery suggests JetStar were looking at investing in their product in the near term. Seriously. The livery has gone from silver with orange highlights.... To Silver with slightly more orange highlights. Think the various changes ar...

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Jetstar livery
Replies: 31
Views: 7416

Re: New Jetstar livery

[twoid][/twoid]If we go back fifteen years to the birth of Jetstar the airline was suppose to be a no frills, price based service. I think the livery reflected this mantra. If we go to Asia where Jetstar competes with fellow LCC’s such as AirAsia, Vietjet, Scoot, etc, these airlines have been quite ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: New Jetstar livery
Replies: 31
Views: 7416

Re: New Jetstar livery

A little bit more hip I suppose! I'd suggest the new livery could have been linked to a push to expand the airline in Australia. The A321LR's were planned to open up new international destinations / markets, so I suppose the new livery would have been part of a marketing campaign to create awareness...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 29, 2020 9:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68883

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

I wonder if some of the bidders in the Virgin race see more value in the airline being liquidated. https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/deloitte-s-call-for-virgin-emergency-cash-rejected-as-liquidity-fears-rise-20200529-p54xns.html https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/canadian-funds-giant-...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue May 26, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

Yes, but where Melbourne is earning average $200 fares, they are using 737 size aircraft, not small F70's and ATR type aircraft.

If I was a tourist operator in Queensland, I would be falling over with these $200 fares.

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue May 26, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

I think with Brisbane airport being a gateway to regional Queensland and to a lessor extent Northern NSW (all tourist destinations) as a percentage of sales, airfares out of Brisbane have lower yields compared to Melbourne which predominantly services major cities. The article could be suggesting th...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 22, 2020 5:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

I think what it does illustrate is that (1) Virgin fundamentally service different markets and (2) the base product and cost base for these markets are fundamentally different. This is why there is an argument for a Queensland based third airline. There is a mismatch between the Virgin and QANTAS pr...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu May 21, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s
Replies: 104
Views: 26498

Re: Rumor: Etihad Considers Retiring A380s and Abandoning A350s

I see the retirement of the A380 as both a macro and micro initiative to match capacity with expected demand post Covid-19. On the Macro side, by retiring the A380 early airlines (as a whole) have made a quick and rather substantial cut to the seats available in the market post Covid-19. On the micr...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu May 14, 2020 12:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68883

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

more about ensuring the fundamentals for the Queensland economy remain strong, rather than loosing money by owning an airline. But if that's the objective then they wouldn't find any third party interest, And I can't imagine that's within QICs mandate. Remember also this is being sold in a competit...

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed May 13, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68883

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

VA is not an infrastructure asset. QIC has no idea how to run an airline and it would become a disaster investment for them if they try. But it doesnt really matter, QIC wont win the bid. The risks in VA will be too high for their risk appetite and so they wont be able to mount a competitive bid. I...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue May 12, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ryanair back to all Boeing, cancelling leases for Airbus A320s.
Replies: 45
Views: 10737

Re: Ryanair back to all Boeing, cancelling leases for Airbus A320s.

I like this statement. "O’Leary said the MAX grounding could delay Ryanair’s plan to fly 200 million passengers by 2020 “by a year or two.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-ryanair-hldgs-airb-idUSKBN22O1IZ Where everyone else is talking about a 3-5 year recovery (using 2019...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue May 12, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68883

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Either way there will be plenty of pilots to choose from. I was thinking a Queensland based airline (something like REX) flying regional Qld and Brisbane - major capital cities could also be another option. Queensland and its core industries (agriculture/resources/tourism) are all heavy reliant upon...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 08, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

I wasn’t aware of the similar business test, a relatively new tax rule. I’d suggest the intent of the new rule is to minimise the ability of companies to Price Transfer from one company to another. The rule could explain why Virgin Australia decided to write off future tax credits from its 2019 acco...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 08, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

If we subtract $412 million from 1.52 billion, in theory there is a spread of AUD$1,108 billion between SIA's valuation of the airline and the actual losses the airline reported. This could raise some questions about what was known about the financial affairs of Virgin Australia at the 31 December ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 08, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

Interesting comments from SIA. “We have been equity accounting for our share of losses in Virgin Australia. As at 31 December 2019, our carrying value was zero and we have no exposure to further losses incurred by the company. “We have no outstanding loans to the airline.” https://www.flightglobal.c...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 08, 2020 8:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1660
Views: 313713

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

If I remember correctly LH recommended Boeing revise the flap settings for the 748i at cruise. This was a consequence of their own in service testing of different flight configurations. If I remember correctly it resulted in fuel burn savings of around a percent. ......and this is probably where the...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri May 08, 2020 5:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68883

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Does anybody know if JQ’s first A321LR is still scheduled for a August delivery?

Could be a good news news item to create interest in air travel again.

Jump to post
by 81819
Mon May 04, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020
Replies: 512
Views: 68883

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2020

Apparently Virgin Australia’a administrator needs a $200m loan just to keep the airline alive until it can be sold, with free cash down to $30m when Deloitte was called in. This paints a dire picture of the airline’s finances, far worse than they were previously said to be. https://amp.theaustralia...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

This is a guess on my part, but I’m of the opinion that there will be a reasonable amount of 737 leases retained to ensure enough aircraft to offer enough frequency as competition to QF especially on SYD-MEL. Whilst the A330s offered a very nice J service, I don’t see those leases remaining, partic...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Just did some quick (back of the envelope) numbers on the value of VA to try and work out what type of bids will likely come in for the airline. My numbers suggest the airline has a liquid asset base somewhere in the region of $$4.7 billion dollars. Considering the airline has not made a profit for ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Or they can make an offer for to the administrators for the Tiger AOC. Or VARA, or VAI.... There are four AOC's on offer. Does an AOC in itself have any actual financial value? I gather that to apply for this “permit”, a fee is involved, whatever that may be. But to acquire a legal entitlement to o...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

I second SuperJeffs question, could Virgin Australia just returned leased aircraft as a negotiating tactic? Indigo Partners, owners of the LCC Frontier in the USA and co-owner of European LCC Wizz Air throws their hat in the ring for VAH. They initially plan to make VA 2.0 as a domestic-only LCC, a...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

It means VA were raising cash through a bond raising and financing of owned aircraft. We knew about the bond raising, but all thought this was directly linked to the buy-out of the remaining share in Velocity. With VA's P&L showing the business being largely free cash flow neutral over the last...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Most/all of this additional debt is hypothetical rather than real debt. It includes things like future obligations, contract/lease break fees, redundancy payouts etc which may become real debts depending on the direction the company takes from here. This is the administration process doing what it ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

When VA started asking for hand outs from the federal government, it was widely acknowledged they had $4-5B in debt. There have been several recent reports in the media that now suggest the debt level is in excess of $6B and approaching $7B. I find it absolutely gobsmacking or incredulous that almo...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

It means VA were raising cash through a bond raising and financing of owned aircraft. We knew about the bond raising, but all thought this was directly linked to the buy-out of the remaining share in Velocity. With VA's P&L showing the business being largely free cash flow neutral over the last ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

Just doing the numbers. Using 126 aircraft as the datum point (CASA web site), VA have lease / finance commitments of approximately $15 million per aircraft. On review of the CASA aircraft register web site I noted VA currently have 13 owned aircraft. Between September 2019 and 24 March 2020, VA fin...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Virgin Australia owe $6.9 Billion dollars and are hoping to get a waiver on aircraft leases. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-virgin-australia/virgin-australia-owes-4-4-billion-to-creditors-to-seek-waiver-on-aircraft-leases-administrator-idUKKCN22604D Wow that is a big number. U...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

It should already be noted, there are at least 10+ interested concerns looking at Virgin, much more than what was looking at Ansett, so I'm quite confident that there wont be liquidated. It's just administrator semantics: yes there are 10+ interested parties- (waiting to chew at the carcass- this b...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/04/twu-urges-government-to-make-bold-virgin-move/ TWU are calling on the govt to take a stake in Virgin to get a return in the future. Maybe TWU could put their money where their mouth is and get TWU Super to support their members and take a stake in the airli...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

Former Labor senator Stephen Conroy via Sky News (another News Corp channel) is 'flabbergasted' that SIA ain't pulling the chequebook. May be surprising to some politicians, but there are good reasons why SIA aren't keen to be involved again from a equity perspective after being bitten twice with t...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

I can't see why Scurrah wouldn't stay on (unless he doesnt want to). He hasn't been there that long and as so far made positive moves to rightsizing the airline. Why go to the effort of finding a new CEO? I dont think there are many optics to be changed/improved by making a change. The only thing i...

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

From where I sit 60 cents in the dollar for unsecured creditors seems to be a fair number. If we consider $5 billion in debt x 60% = $3 billion and the current owners will loose their equity of $760 million, a reorganisation of VA using 60 cents in the dollar could effectively wipe out more than 50%...

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

I thought this would be a fair number. If we consider $5 billion in debt x 60% = $3 billion and the current owners will loose their equity of $760 million in the business, a reorganisation of VA using 60 cents in the dollar will effectively wipe out more than 50% of debt. If we consider a new invest...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Swissport is expected to make around 80% or 2000 workers redundant in the next 5-10 days and will begin liquidating critical airport assets as well. Swissport has notified Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin of its imminent closure of operations. Swissport is also believed to be owed millions of dollars fro...

Jump to post
by 81819
Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

As for the fleet---status (this includes Virgin Australia Regional and Tigerair Australia): A320: 2 owned, 13 leased A332: 1 owned, 5 leased AT76: 0 owned 10 leased B737: 2 owned, 0 leased B738: 42 owned, 41 leased B77W: 4 owned, 1 leased F100: 12 owned, 2 leased Overall, the total fleet is 61 owne...

Jump to post
by 81819
Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration
Replies: 316
Views: 53554

Re: Virgin Australia to enter voluntary administration

I don't know very much about Virgin Australia, but why, prior to the corona virus, were they unprofitable? Hasn't every major airline that competed with QANTAS failed? I'm honestly asking, I don't know. Is there really room for two full service airlines in relation to the Aussie population? VA burn...

Jump to post
by 81819
Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS. Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on. The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's bee...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

^^No objections to foreign ownership, just as long as it's less than 50%. Why? 1. Because that's the restriction QF has, and we need a level playing field (I have read and heard so much about level playing fields lately, so please, no darn arguments about all the other things QF is and isn't) in re...

Jump to post
by 81819
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Well threatening to move to Melbourne paid off. Queensland Government has pledged $200 million, conditional on HQ remaining in Brisbane. https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/virgin-offered-$200m-coronavirus-lifeline-from-qld-government/12160946?pfmredir=sm I guess the unknown is what, if any, ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

I tend to think many have short memories really about DJ/VA. Back when it made the decision to move to its VA full service model, it was lauded as a great idea as the hybrid space that DJ had seemed to gravitate to was seen as a confusing brand position. There were numerous comments at the time sug...

Jump to post
by 81819
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

My 2 cents on what VA should become: scrap all international, scrap all wide bodies, scrap TT, scrap business class and just return to domestic trunk and key leisure routes. I think an all economy layout with the first 3-5 rows with extra legroom for corporates and frequent flyers. I think it needs...

Jump to post
by 81819
Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Not sure how moving a HQ would be of benefit in times like these - especially with the cost of either relocating or making redundant the Brisbane workforce. It would also put a few Queensland based frequent flyers out of joint I imagine. Well they already have an airline with an AOC and head office...

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sorry but no business plans for a scenario where 100% of their revenue gets wiped out in one go. So to claim that "management rules 101" weren't followed is curious unless you were in those board meetings when those decisions were made... Note it is widely suggested in the media that the ...

Jump to post
by 81819
Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020
Replies: 1158
Views: 117204

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

VA recently spent $700 million to take full ownership of their Velocity Rewards customer loyalty program. In essence they reduced their liquidity, when they had low equity and an inability to raise new debt. The $700 million outlay essentially changed the risk and debt profile of the business. Ther...

Jump to post
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 41