Search found 1282 matches

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by Aither
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why didn't Hawaiian wait for the A321LR/XLR?
Replies: 69
Views: 13971

Re: Why didn't Hawaiian wait for the A321LR/XLR?

If the penalty of operating an XLR over a regular A321 neo is not too big they should have at some point a few XLRs. Even if there are not many new destinations they could serve with the extra range at least it gives some flexibility to adapt to market demand and be more opportunistic.

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by Aither
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years
Replies: 51
Views: 15026

Re: Emirates CEO says no new widebodies will launch in years

A smaller market does not mean smaller widebody aircraft. A smaller market means less routes, less frequencies and more focus on the top markets. I believe what will suffer the most are the so called point to point routes or routes with little connecting traffic. Typically routes promoted by Boeing ...

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by Aither
Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Hawaii reopening delayed until Sep. 1
Replies: 49
Views: 6868

Re: Hawaii reopening delayed until Sep. 1

Honolulu needs more infrastructure, in particular public transport. This may be the good time for such investment. In the Philippines a few month ago they closed a major touristic destination to clean everything and make the destination more "premium" and efficient. Regarding home office, ...

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by Aither
Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How hard have the Chinese Airlines been hit
Replies: 12
Views: 3140

Re: How hard have the Chinese Airlines been hit

Actually they will make more profits not flying international routes :) I'm a bit exaggerating here of course but the bread & butter of the Chinese airlines has always been the domestic market and even it it's down say 30%, fuel costs are also down. Overall they will be hit hard but far less tha...

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by Aither
Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 504
Views: 91143

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

I think most A380s should stay. Even if the international market demand is let say 70% of pre covid (when is the question..) this would probably mean EK demand will be at pre covid. Like previous crises there will be consolidations of airlines and networks which will benefit to the most efficient hu...

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by Aither
Mon Jun 08, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus wants governments to finance a scrappage scheme
Replies: 53
Views: 8057

Re: Airbus wants governments to finance a scrappage scheme

If governments really want to greenify the planet they should let the economy fall... or invest in better technologies: The cost per year in the world of air pollution on our societies is estimated around 4.5 trillions USD. If true, and If through incentives in the transport industry you can reduce ...

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by Aither
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 146
Views: 37684

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Air France will be a large A350-900 operator but will need something bigger to replace their 777-300ER & A380's. The A350-1000 is not large enough, the 777-9 is just about right. AF has some heavy premium airplanes so seat count will not be huge, their 4 class 77W seats 296. Air France is less ...

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by Aither
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end
Replies: 146
Views: 37684

Re: Boeing to close 777x and 787 order before month-end

Right now such a deal would heavily rely on politics.
So I agree it's probably EVA because of what's going on in the south Chinese seas.

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by Aither
Mon May 25, 2020 9:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 504
Views: 91143

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Airlinerdude.. I’m happy with what Ive said regarding the 380, as I’ve personally seen the numbers first hand, I’m sure your source is also correct on the basis of certain costings and how it’s presented, but I know what I know and the proof is in the fleet numbers going forwards...however implausi...

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by Aither
Fri May 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions
Replies: 236
Views: 38906

Re: Southwest Airlines planning on squeezing competitors in weaker positions

Nobody should be surprised. This is what many LCCs have done during previous crises. Carriers like Emirates used to say in their early years they are carrying the demand other airlines do not want to carry. We are all monitoring what others are doing capacity wise. Today there are only losers but in...

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by Aither
Fri May 22, 2020 4:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi
Replies: 730
Views: 154373

Re: PIA A320 (flight PK8303) crashes in Karachi

LAXdenizen wrote:
Could the pilots have forgotton to extend the gear on the initial approach? .


Hard to believe. It's an A320, there is a master warning alarm for this situation.

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by Aither
Thu May 21, 2020 8:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Chinese aviation market international capacity restriction
Replies: 113
Views: 14332

Re: Chinese aviation market international capacity restriction

Considering the Chinese airlines were making big losses on international routes, not flying these routes could help a bit the bottom line.

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by Aither
Sun May 17, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 504
Views: 91143

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Because there are people here who have convinced themselves that this situation will have no lasting effect on EK and they will be instantly back to business as usual within a few months because they only have a single hub or ridiculous things like that. Whatever how deep will be the crisis, it is ...

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by Aither
Sun May 17, 2020 5:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 504
Views: 91143

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

If true It's good news for the 77X. Some 77X were probably for growth. Assuming 2024 traffic = 2019 levels a lot of A380s would need to be phased out or a lot of 77X to be postponed/cancelled.

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by Aither
Thu May 14, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Korean Air Chairman: business conditions poor, looking to divest assets, form more JVs
Replies: 69
Views: 16315

Re: Korean Air Chairman: business conditions poor, looking to divest assets, form more JVs

Is it possible that how Korea dealt with Covid-19 could mean KE will be in a favorable position once traveling becomes normalized again? Yes, if they can seize this opportunity. I also believe more than ever the reputation of the airline will be important as "trust" will be key for the pa...

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by Aither
Sun May 10, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10443

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

South Korea and China raised concerns today over a 'second wave', and Germany just announced >1.1 infection rates. The United States doesn't have the testing capacity, social safety net, public adherence to social distancing nor the amounts of PPE that those countries have. You can repeat some TSA ...

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by Aither
Wed May 06, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Time for the airlines to restart advertising
Replies: 114
Views: 10443

Re: Time for the airlines to restart advertising

Traffic will come back, with less europeans and americans and more from the rest of the world. All crises are just trend accelerators.

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by Aither
Wed May 06, 2020 12:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK's possible future?
Replies: 153
Views: 27367

Re: EK's possible future?

International VFR 1) Do people wish to travel, yes humans always want to travel 2) Can people afford to travel. Depends on economy, most likely people will cut discretionary spending 3) Do countries welcome international tourists with open arms. In pre-COVID19, if you are bringing enough cash to sp...

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by Aither
Sun May 03, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK's possible future?
Replies: 153
Views: 27367

Re: EK's possible future?

Well, if your scenario is the end of air travel obviously EK will be in a bad shape... There is nothing to be discussed about a worst case scenario. It's just the end of everything. The only thing I'm 100% certain is that If you only prepare for the worse then only the worse can happen to you. Sayin...

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by Aither
Sun May 03, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Warren Buffet out of aviation
Replies: 19
Views: 2847

Re: Warren Buffet out of aviation

So he invested in airlines all operating from the same country... ?
And people think he is a sage...

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by Aither
Sun May 03, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK's possible future?
Replies: 153
Views: 27367

Re: EK's possible future?

None of the conditions Emirates made the world's largest international carrier exists today. Dubai's family, friends and neighbors don't have easy access to cash like they used to. Repeating Dubai never had oil money is beating the dead horse. Reality is, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi have very limited dis...

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by Aither
Sun May 03, 2020 3:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020
Replies: 184
Views: 25158

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - May 2020

Two types of airports in the future? Domestic with lower levels of health checks / separation, and international with much higher levels (and higher costs for airlines and passengers). Physical separation of international and domestic terminals? Cost of airports approved for international flights w...

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by Aither
Sun May 03, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)
Replies: 52
Views: 8153

Re: "Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas" (CBC)

We can't compare what European carriers are saying with what other carriers are saying. Crisis often accelerates past trends. Europe was following the path of becoming an under underdeveloped region economically speaking. Add to that the very strong environmental pressures in Europe plus the alterna...

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by Aither
Sat May 02, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK's possible future?
Replies: 153
Views: 27367

Re: EK's possible future?

Relative to other airlines EK could actually become much stronger. They may be monitoring the guys saying "they will be smaller", and how they will be able in a few months to capture their O&Ds.
In absolute terms it will depend of the economy.

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by Aither
Sat May 02, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: How are forward bookings looking?
Replies: 19
Views: 3564

Re: How are forward bookings looking?

Some airlines (in the world) have a lot of speculative bookings : people buy cheap tickets with full flexibility to use the tickets until end of 2021.

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by Aither
Sat May 02, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing raises $25B in new Debt sale
Replies: 61
Views: 6852

Re: Boeing raises $25B in new Debt sale

When a company shows so little concerns for their employees it should not be a surprise to anyone they have so many quality issues.

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by Aither
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380: what would Emirates do?
Replies: 54
Views: 14494

Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

People will want to fly once the global travel ban is lifted. I'm not sure this is so simple. Many people will obviously want (or have) to travel. Some because they need it to work, some because they have family abroad they will want to see, some because they like to travel and have had to refrain ...

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by Aither
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A380: what would Emirates do?
Replies: 54
Views: 14494

Re: A380: what would Emirates do?

I would be Emirates I would monitor all the other carriers saying "we're going to be smaller", prepare a nice network recovery planning, demonstrate today I'm the safest airline to fly long haul, and then when the rebound starts put myself as more than ever in a position of the absolute gl...

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by Aither
Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X
Replies: 161
Views: 26763

Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

CX also use some of the long haul fleet for regional routes. The dedicated widebody fleet for regional routes is increasingly being challenged. In particular if we see less premium cabins on long haul. So we should expect many of the large A350s to fly regional markets. This makes the 787-10 in a di...

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by Aither
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airlines cash reserves
Replies: 48
Views: 10294

Re: Airlines cash reserves

In the past there were more conglomerates having different sorts of activities, ideally counter cycle activities.
So for an airline the best protection would be to invest on ...Netflix...

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by Aither
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirBaltic negotiating for faster A220 delivery
Replies: 28
Views: 4749

Re: AirBaltic negotiating for faster A220 delivery

It's not a surprise that faster than anticipated fleet restructuring can lead to new orders for aircraft to be delivered in 4+ years.

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by Aither
Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020
Replies: 542
Views: 99335

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

I find his optimism, realistic or not, to be refreshing. Yes, it's good to hear that. It's always the same story with the crisis: - Before the crisis people minimize the impacts - During the crisis it's always the "end of the world", "it will never be the same" - After the crisi...

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by Aither
Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020
Replies: 542
Views: 99335

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Social distancing inside the aircraft does not make sense. It would be purely for communication purpose. Aviation will restart where schools will also restart, basically where social distancing will no longer be an absolute requirement. What could be required however, is to wear masks all the time, ...

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by Aither
Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020
Replies: 542
Views: 99335

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19 , aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole...

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by Aither
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020
Replies: 542
Views: 99335

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covi...

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by Aither
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: If you could visit any country tomorrow, what country would it be?
Replies: 66
Views: 3815

Re: If you could visit any country tomorrow, what country would it be?

Not a country but probably Venice or similar super crowded hot spot normally, if the restaurants are opened obviously. If concerned about going to big cities because of the virus then some natural hot spot like Yellow Stone, Mont Blanc, etc. I think this year, people wherever possible will go outsid...

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by Aither
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?
Replies: 24
Views: 1867

Re: Boeing: Is it too big to fail? What government aid does it need? Will the 737 Max bring it down?

Boeing is indeed too big to fail and will be rescued for a number of reasons including the massive jobs that would be wiped out if Boeing were to go under... I don't think job losses are a consideration. For example, in the early 70s, employment dropped from 120,000+ to about 39,000 in less than th...

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by Aither
Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:02 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Which aircraft types have best advantage for social distancing?
Replies: 27
Views: 2150

Re: Which aircraft types have best advantage for social distancing?

Considering schools are being reopened in the first impacted countries this makes social distancing a nonsense after the peak of the infection. The real topic should be regional distancing and this is where it will become a nightmare for the big connectors like Emirates. So the problem is not the ai...

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by Aither
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19
Replies: 80
Views: 13732

Re: Vietnam Airlines wants to speed up its order of 50 narrowbodies amid COVID-19

Countries like Vietnam without aviation would be back to agriculture only production. So it's simple, there are not many alternatives: You believe in a recovery within the next 3-4 years: you prepare it now even and you take a calculated risk of losing big money. You don't believe in a recovery : th...

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by Aither
Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 57367

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

I'm not sure at all airplanes contracts are vaporware. OEM are expert making these contracts : they make these contracts every week while an airline is making one every X years... What is not vaporware also is a delivery slot. Most of the narrow body products are flying domestic routes. And it seems...

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by Aither
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155176

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

Keesje concept is nice but I think the ROI will be difficult to achieve : a 30b USD programme to be delivered from 2025/2030 which would cost $$$ for airlines to buy with no breakthrough technology at a time where all suppliers are cutting their R&D expenses and airlines will need to rebuild the...

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by Aither
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020
Replies: 542
Views: 99335

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

OK, if it's long haul only it sounds indeed a bit optimistic. In particular considering they fly to Africa...

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by Aither
Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020
Replies: 542
Views: 99335

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

AF/KLM planning slow recovery, 20% capacity in June, July 40%, August 60%, 75% by Q4, doesnt expect recovery until well into 2021 https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/services/transport-logistique/air-france-le-plan-ben-smith-pour-passer-la-crise-844934.html That seems like wildly optimisti...

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by Aither
Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: QUESTION: The origins of hub-and-spoke
Replies: 49
Views: 7577

Re: QUESTION: The origins of hub-and-spoke

Hub and spoke transportation models have been used for millennia dating back to ancient times with caravan networks. Absolutely. I believe the most large scale, transcontinental hub & spoke model was from the Arabs centuries ago when organizing the trade between East & West. Then the Portug...

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by Aither
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate
Replies: 120
Views: 13940

Re: Airbus Cuts A320, A330, and A350 Production Rate

Good to see Airbus is not getting too much into the hysterical mindset. I feared the A330 production would stop. With cheap oil price and a lower acquisition cost the A330 is quite interesting. On top there are plenty of pilots and mechanics trained for this aircraft. Plus cheaper parts. I think it'...

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by Aither
Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LH Group fleet groundings, Germanwings closure
Replies: 356
Views: 65695

Re: LH Group fleet groundings, Germanwings closure

I'm actually surprised that LH is retiring A346s as opposed to all of its A388s, as the A346 is a better belly cargo hauler. The B748s do have a place and role in the network at FRA. Yes the A388 is newer, but the A346 is way more versatile. Where it works the A380 is a real cash cow. And airlines ...

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by Aither
Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Curious: Which OEM will have the upper hand after Coronavirus?
Replies: 15
Views: 2050

Re: Curious: Which OEM will have the upper hand after Coronavirus?

Let’s dig further. Boeing is producing new production 747, 767 and 777 freighters. The Coronavirus has resulted in increased demand for freighters. This should help ease that drop off since FedEx, DHL, UPS, Amazon will need planes. Boeing absolutely dominates Airbus since Airbus isn’t building new ...

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by Aither
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future demand for widebodies
Replies: 100
Views: 13216

Re: Future demand for widebodies

EK does not need any more A380s. Not a single one more. The markets of EK are not like the US markets. People will be disappointed if they believe that there will be no longer immigrants Indian workers, China will not care of Africa any longer, Middle East countries will stop going global, everybod...

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by Aither
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future demand for widebodies
Replies: 100
Views: 13216

Re: Future demand for widebodies

What is the point of completing any A380s currently in production? Production of these remaining airframes should be halted immediately and all unfinished aircraft scrapped. Less traffic does not necessarily means smaller airplanes. Less competition, less routes can also concentrate the traffic bet...

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