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by BoeingVista
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing is sued for $336 million over canceled 737 MAX order
Replies: 57
Views: 9910

Re: ALAFCO Sues Boeing Over Max

So if ALAFCO wins the case, what total amount could Boeing be exposed to if others follow suit? Can they afford this? Many airlines might be encouraged to do this in order to get access to additional funding. Depends on what we think the average deposit on a MAX is, ballpark 8% deposit on $88m airc...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

eurotrader85 wrote:
I don't think the analogue stacks up well with evidence at all.


The analogue may not work well enough to substantiate the thrust of my argument but I stand by prediction. Fact is we have no analogues or models to adequately forecast where we are or where we go from here.

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by BoeingVista
Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:54 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

While the time frame is debateable the point is correct. Globalisation will resume, and that will mean air travel. The simple macroeconomic part is that corporates who are taking a battering/go under, will/have slashed travel budgets as is always the case in such scenarios. Separately retail consum...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

Maybe for the next couple of years or so, yes. Long term, I think it has a future. But with oil at current low prices, the need for more fuel efficient new expensive aircraft may not be as urgent as otherwise hence we will see more mainstream airlines keeping present fleets on extended lease deals....

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by BoeingVista
Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

The Seattle Times article had many errors because Dominic Gates used ex-Boeing employees and bloggers as his sources. Here are facts that I know: - The SLB with BOC Aviation was not for 10 years - Any 77W lessor would love to extend leases right now and would probably cut rent to do so (this goes f...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

The stages of purchase can be option, MoU, conditional and unconditional order. With a new model, yet to fly, there can be a stage between conditional and unconditional, if either OEM (air frame and / or engine) is unwilling / unable to guarantee performance to say within +/- 1-2% of quoted, or pro...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

Maybe for the next couple of years or so, yes. Long term, I think it has a future. But with oil at current low prices, the need for more fuel efficient new expensive aircraft may not be as urgent as otherwise hence we will see more mainstream airlines keeping present fleets on extended lease deals....

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by BoeingVista
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

You guys crack me up, your argument seems to be that there is more compatibility between the 777W and 777-9 than the A350 and the... A350... :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: They need to train their A330 crew (if there are enough) for A350. It seems that it is much easier to make B77w crew ready for...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:29 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41237

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

5. Don't forget the compatibility between B77W and B779. Please tell me, which one is a better option? 1. Defer/cut A359/A35K orders to save cash in the near term, and adopt wait-and-see approach on B779. 2. Cut the B779 orders even though the capital expenditure won't happen in two years or even l...

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by BoeingVista
Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What could a Potential A220-500/700/900 look like?
Replies: 190
Views: 26571

Re: What could a Potential A220-500/700/900 look like?

lightsaber wrote:
The Coronavirus just erased the public memory.



Ha! I don't think so.

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by BoeingVista
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What could a Potential A220-500/700/900 look like?
Replies: 190
Views: 26571

Re: What could a Potential A220-500/700/900 look like?

When the air travel market revives, the airlines will need small effiecent aircraft with adequate range first. All airframe makers must take action now, to have the right products at that time. The competition will be hundreds of 737MAX white tails, from canceled orders. These will be sold at an un...

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by BoeingVista
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:31 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020
Replies: 190
Views: 270282

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5492306
-->

Transport Canada certified MAX in 2017 despite not getting answers from FAA / Boeing on MCAS questions posed in 2016

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/boeing ... -1.5492306

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by BoeingVista
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020
Replies: 463
Views: 73377

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

If the same wiring issue exists in NG , then should it really be a blocker for Max's RTS? Somehow, that doesn't seem right to me. It could be fixed with an AD, giving it 6-12 months to retrofit all Maxs. Its not the same issue, part of the wiring problem is bigger MAX engines = larger fan blades = ...

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by BoeingVista
Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020
Replies: 463
Views: 73377

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Here's a link to the Ethiopian Airlines preliminary crash report: https://flightsafety.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Preliminary-Report-B737-800MAX-ET-AVJ.pdf A quick scan of the report shows the pilots were well aware it was a MCAS type failure and did the Boeing mandated motions (more or less) u...

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by BoeingVista
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1428
Views: 273312

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

Stitch wrote:

Again, the 777X's flight level during testing has nothing to do with the static test failure.


And again, You don't know that

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by BoeingVista
Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:04 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: UTair 737-500 damaged in hard landing at Usinsk
Replies: 56
Views: 9134

Re: UTair 737-500 damaged in hard landing at Usinsk

Well, at least she remained in one piece.. as she should.

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by BoeingVista
Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pegasus Airlines Flight PC2193 Runway Overrun at Istanbul (SAW)
Replies: 290
Views: 49430

Re: Pegasus Airlines Flight PC2193 Runway Overrun at Istanbul (SAW)

Sad as it is, I still think three dead is a minor miracle for this accident. So much for there being no further critical casualties after the first death was announced - so I'm not exactly confident this won't rise further. And I agree that the safety culture at Pegasus and Turkish airlines as a wh...

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by BoeingVista
Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pegasus Airlines Flight PC2193 Runway Overrun at Istanbul (SAW)
Replies: 290
Views: 49430

Re: Pegasus Airlines Flight PC2193 Runway Overrun at Istanbul (SAW)

I hope this is the crash too many that causes EASA to look into Turkish operators and their safety culture. Seems like there is something going amiss either because pilots are discouraged to go around, attempting to land in impossible conditions, poorly trained, communicating badly or too confident...

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by BoeingVista
Sat Jan 25, 2020 5:03 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement
Replies: 1049
Views: 151629

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

Is now a bad time to state that in the 2 1/2 years since its launch, the 737-10 MAX has secured just 531 orders in total With the production slowdown/stoppage, I would be interested if any 737 MAX customers have been talking to Boeing about model conversions from smaller versions to the 737-10 for ...

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by BoeingVista
Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777-9 first flight 25 January 2020
Replies: 970
Views: 80389

Re: Boeing 777-9 first flight 25 January 2020 at 10am (weather permitting)

CALTECH wrote:
Some computer stores had this on all their monitors .......

Image


Thats pretty large, looks like a train plane hybrid.

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by BoeingVista
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Wirtschaftswoche: Ryanair to buy up 100 A320/A321neo for Lauda
Replies: 66
Views: 11032

Re: Wirtschaftswoche: Ryanair to buy up 100 A320/A321neo for Lauda

If a fresh new A32N/A32Q order is being placed by an airline, the earliest delivery slot is 2025 onwards which I bet MOL will not want to wait that long for. Maybe, he can manage to get the NEO slots that Avianca recently gave up for 20 units which were to be obtained sooner. But Airbus is right, a...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement
Replies: 1049
Views: 151629

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

But that appears to be what Boeing has been offering for at least a couple of years and airlines just ordered A321XLRs. Yes, and airlines are paying premium prices to be in the queue to take delivery of the A321NEO / LR / XLR If you cannot recover your R&D and production costs through the Avera...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement
Replies: 1049
Views: 151629

Re: Boeing NMA in doubt as customers push for all new 737MAX and 757 replacement

In principle, this is why I think a narrow body the size of the 757-300 or 200+ seat range will not work, Airbus is pumping out A321's and will most likely convert a lot of their A320NEO's. The idea of a small widebody between the largest MAX and the smallest 787 should provide enough distinction t...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321 P2F first flight
Replies: 111
Views: 27662

Re: A321 P2F first flight

There is a picture of D-ANJA in the www but according to the forum rules I cannot post it here (it’s not that spectacular anyway. Being an ex-Onur-Air aircraft, the winglet has already the correct colour for its future operator...). This article includes a picture of how she will look like once bei...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155138

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market. Boeing strategy circa 2005: replace 767, replace 737 (757 market dead, no replacement planed) Boeing decides on 787 to replace 767 with NSA to foll...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155138

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

The 787-8 is slightly smaller than the A330-800. Is Boeing going to work on improving this model to compete for the upper end of the former NMA market. Boeing strategy circa 2005: replace 767, replace 737 (757 market dead, no replacement planed) Boeing decides on 787 to replace 767 with NSA to foll...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:55 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Tanker fighting Australian bushfires crashes
Replies: 14
Views: 5212

Re: Tanker fighting Australian bushfires crashes

lightsaber wrote:
Sad. It is risky fighting fires. My thoughts go out to the families.


Unfortunately at least the 3rd firefighting aircraft crash in a year in Australia. Firefighting is dangerous work whether on the ground or in the air

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by BoeingVista
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155138

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

I suspect what Calhoun meant is that they are going to systematically start the clean sheet incorporating the lessons learned from the MAX debacle. Evaluate the control scheme and scope with lots of risk analysis, basically an autonomous aircraft monitored by the pilots (sometime just one pilot). P...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155138

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

What Calhoun suggested was the they were considering changing the traditional Boeing philosophy of leaving the pilot as the final authority to be more like their competitor's approach and said this is one possible outcome of the MAX tragedy. . Thats not really been Boeings 737 approach either, they...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321 P2F first flight
Replies: 111
Views: 27662

Re: A321 P2F first flight

There is a picture of D-ANJA in the www but according to the forum rules I cannot post it here (it’s not that spectacular anyway. Being an ex-Onur-Air aircraft, the winglet has already the correct colour for its future operator...). This article includes a picture of how she will look like once bei...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"
Replies: 1642
Views: 155138

Re: Boeing CEO: NMA will "start with a clean sheet of paper again"

This mirrors what I wrote in the MAX grounding thread, it's not realistic to expect new pilots who have had smartphones as youngsters to be able to deal with a cockpit with low levels of automation. The cost to train such new entrants would end up being too high. Now is a good time to take the less...

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by BoeingVista
Wed Jan 22, 2020 5:20 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020
Replies: 1740
Views: 190421

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, January 2020

How is the Max delivery schedule looking now?! My understanding is they will prioritise the completed airframes first, that could be 6-9months if deliveries. Then they have to re-start production and then ramp that up... So how long after RTS will ‘new build’ planes start getting delivered. What’s ...

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by BoeingVista
Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020
Replies: 1428
Views: 273312

Re: Boeing 777X Testing/Production Thread - 2020

It's directly akin to the A380-800's Ultimate Load test failure - at 148%, it was close enough to the goal that once the root cause was identified, a re-do was not required and the frame was signed off as passing the test so it could be certified. I expect the same to happen with the 777X. And once...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Huge anti trust issues here, it would never be approved. Besides, nothing Airbus can do to help Boeing with the MAX, they haven't built a steam powered aircraft for 20 years.. . IIRC, there was talk of the two companies doing the VLA jointly for a while, the proposal did not materialize and A went ...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:48 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

We may not be too far off Boeing and Airbus having to work together to deal with the fallout here as someone suggests above We need some kind of guru type leader to get involved here and come up with workable solutions for the entire industry The ideas and solutions don't look like they are capable...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Which means that even if the MAX is somehow recertified this will only last until the next (unfortunately inevitable) crash when it will be grounded again . The program is on borrowed time and the best thing that Boeing can do it announce a NSA program and attempt to switch the orders as they will ...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:34 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Spirit aerosystems is vulnerable. Their A350 production could be impacted as the 737 is so much of cash flow... I am concerned for the casting houses. Everything from engine casings, turbine blades, to valve bodies just lost, I estimate, 35% of their business. As this hits Meggitt, UTX, British Aer...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:35 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Since today seems to be make up theory day, I don't think you are correct. If behavior without MCAS in the event of a sensor failure was a huge issue, they would have been working on a solution to add a 3rd sensor months ago. A 3rd sensor and processing to get an accurate AoA with a single sensor f...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 4:08 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

JTAR report points to a much more flawed attitude as the simple „light stick“ explanation suggests the stick load regulation is decades old is is rule from the 1980ies to make shure that a plane behaves like a plane it may be that boeing only recognised a deviation from the rules in wind up turns m...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

JTAR report points to a much more flawed attitude as the simple „light stick“ explanation suggests the stick load regulation is decades old is is rule from the 1980ies to make shure that a plane behaves like a plane it may be that boeing only recognised a deviation from the rules in wind up turns m...

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by BoeingVista
Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

I'm trying to estimate jobs impacted by region. Every 737 fusalage is about 63 worker years in Witchita. Every pair of engines is about 90 worker years. About 25 in Cleveland, about 25 at SAFRAN, the rest spread about (including EU, mostly USA) Every plane has perhaps 25 jobs for a year at UTC. Bri...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

A fair point and that is why they test. Look my issue is with all the capital C written on this board about how this was expected and exactly the same as the A380 failure, its really not. It's much, much more serious than that and Boeing should not be allowed to gloss over this in the way it breeze...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

Thanks for the quote. So it "appears" that there is still ambiguity. When he said "they didn't appear" did he mean that is what Boeing told him, or is it what he can surmise from the photos? The second part when he said to want to see what they are going to do tells me that Boei...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:33 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

A fair point and that is why they test. Look my issue is with all the capital C written on this board about how this was expected and exactly the same as the A380 failure, its really not. It's much, much more serious than that and Boeing should not be allowed to gloss over this in the way it breeze...

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by BoeingVista
Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

Per Sir Tim Clark, Boeing did not even have sensors in that area Point taken. Did Mr. Clark state which location he was referring to? The buckling point or the door?. I accept your apology.. The location he was referring to while we would all like to know is moot for the point of the failure locati...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

As I said upthread, it is my opinion that the cargo door failed first, causing a load redistribution around the door surround which was not designed to carry such loads. So this is really a propagated failure. The fix is simply to fix the cargo door to ensure it handles the load correctly. A very m...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Dec 05, 2019 2:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

Are you also a bit concerned about the A380 wing? I'm not, nor am I concerned about the 77X wing either. Had the failure point been, let's say 110% I'd be concerned. Missing by 2-3% at the high end of the scale is not the kind of tragedy some here make it out to be. As usual you fail to comprehend ...

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by BoeingVista
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027
Replies: 481
Views: 85096

Re: United orders 50 A321 XLR, defers A350's to 2027

seahawk wrote:
Agree, it is also possible that they want to squeeze 5-6 ,ore years out of the 777ERs and then take A350 by 2027, when they are probably even more mature than today and all doubts about the engine will have been put to rest.


There are no doubts about the Trent XWB engine.

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by BoeingVista
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure
Replies: 308
Views: 61657

Re: Pictures surfacing of 777X Sept Test Failure

The 777X is a re-winged 777 that also has major structural modifications to the fuselage to get to a 6000 ft cabin and make the cabin 4 inches wider while keeping the the same outer fuselage diameter. The fact that this plane is going to be certified on the original 777 type certificate despite hav...

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by BoeingVista
Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 738601

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019

Looks like 2019 is completely off the table! http://www.kake.com/story/41363600/faa-administrator-hints-at-later-return-for-737-max At what point do Boeing give up and dig a large hole to bury the MAX project, 18 months? 2 years? Because the timeline is heading towards that. I maintain that even if...

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