Search found 3697 matches

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by MSPNWA
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 3980
Views: 607156

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Seems United management occupied with many townhalls. Here is one by the new COO Here some pertinent commentary. Q. Please explain why American and Southwest are flying heavier schedules than United. What do they know that we don't know? A. All airlines see a very consistent set of data around dema...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Jun 19, 2020 3:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 58126

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020

What we don't seem to have had was the "come to Jesus" moment where Boeing admits it let commercial goals drive a series of unacceptable engineering decisions and FAA admits it left Boeing to its own devices far too much. At best we had some apologies without admissions. I can imagine tha...

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by MSPNWA
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 3980
Views: 607156

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

Here are a couple of stories that might be of interest. Brett Snyder takes look at why the US3 differs so much. His take on UA is that its hubs are disadvantaged due to uneven recovery in the U.S with their coastal hotspot locations, it's bigger international flying dependence (with a network built...

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by MSPNWA
Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 420
Views: 83830

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

There's opportunities on both ends of this crisis if the right moves are made. I think it's looking more and more that WN and AA are making the right moves for the recovery opportunity. DL and UA seem to have cut too many flights, leaving few to no viable options for those wanting to fly, compoundin...

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by MSPNWA
Wed May 27, 2020 7:17 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19849

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM

Actually no. The burden of proof lies with you, not someone asserting that someone who bought planes intends to use them. Save for a lessor, that's true basically 100% of the time. So the absence of evidence does not need justification. Your theory does. The old "burden of proof" diversio...

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by MSPNWA
Wed May 27, 2020 5:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 319
Views: 67781

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

It was implied pretty strongly. A quote from the poster I was replying to: "not having to compete with someone who is so big both in MIA and Latin America like AA is, would definitely help. Now they have no feed and face competition. Before, they had feed and much less competition since they w...

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by MSPNWA
Tue May 26, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 319
Views: 67781

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

LA leaving OneWorld might have ratcheted the competition up a notch (mostly from AA's side; I don't remember LA adding much capacity...), but AA and LA certainly were competitors before. I remember seeing AA nonstop flights being listed way below a bunch of connecting LA itineraries on Latam's book...

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by MSPNWA
Tue May 26, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19849

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM

You haven't offered any hard evidence that that DL didn't intend to operate the four used A350s they agreed to take in addition to ten new ones. All you have is a decision to defer some A350s that was made three years ago. A lot has changed since then. As I said, a lot has changed since DL agreed t...

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by MSPNWA
Tue May 26, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy
Replies: 319
Views: 67781

Re: Updated: LATAM files for Bankruptcy

Since the AA-LA JV was struck down, AA and LA were going to remain competitors regardless of alliance alignment. Just because they codeshared on some of each other's flights, doesn't mean they weren't competing for the same traffic. Unless there's a JV, you can't coordinate schedules and prices, so...

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by MSPNWA
Tue May 26, 2020 10:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19849

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM

Yet DL’s purchase of the LATAM stake included taking the four A350s plus the 10 new ones in full knowledge of the previous plan. Plans are made with the knowledge at that point in time. Things change, forcing the best plans to be changed. Indeed, we’ve just seen DL’s revised plan from the end of Se...

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by MSPNWA
Tue May 26, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19849

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM

DL isn't in the habit of buying new aircraft for fun. Considering the a359 is their future longhaul mainstay and they have many on order, why would you think they wouldn't operate them? It isn't for fun. It's business. 1) DL had previously significantly deferred deliveries of its new A350s (and als...

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by MSPNWA
Tue May 26, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM
Replies: 105
Views: 19849

Re: Delta Pays $62m to Cancel purchase of 4 used A350s from LATAM

I have my doubts DL wanted these four aircraft in the first place. LATAM needed out of excess aircraft, but that doesn't mean DL would fly them. I was expecting DL move on from them in some way, but who knows if this was the original plan.

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 21, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

I mean, let's not gloss over the fact that you were pushing the narrative that JNB might be served from JFK instead of ATL. That proved incorrect. You continue to lie about me and what I say. You know from my posts there was no "narrative" about JNB-JFK specifically. You know that what I ...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 21, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

The larger and lighter aircraft is a negative? I am down a rabbit hole now. Even if you use the Wikipedia OEW, the A350 has the same OEW as the 77L. It seats more passengers in total and more premium passengers. To fly those passengers the same distance will cost less due to the lighter weight and ...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 21, 2020 8:00 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

It's not a rumour. The "rumor" I'm talking about is the actual return of the proposed JNB route, not the current internal proposal. I feel like this is one we'll talk about for a while about a potential return. Larger aircraft that is lighter and burns a lot less fuel. Better premium prod...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 21, 2020 7:11 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

I am told today that during an internal employee townhall Ed said that when JNB comes back on the 359 it will be to/from ATL and will be included in a CPT rotation as a result of the 77L retirement and lack of high and hot legs on the 359: ATL-JNB-CPT-ATL No timeline given as to when service would ...

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by MSPNWA
Mon May 18, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: American Airlines Business & Finance Discussion
Replies: 420
Views: 83830

Re: FT: Investors bet AA will file for BK

Investors shouldn't bet on anything at this point.. We have no idea which carrier(s) will emerge the strongest out of this. You can pretty much throw debt out the window in these times (you can almost throw it out in good, stable times, and both UA and DL also have high true debt loads). What will m...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 11:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aviation sector unpaid leaves and layoffs thread
Replies: 1149
Views: 36864

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

Something to keep in mind is that AA has always had more Narrowbody A/C that was needed to staff. Total headcount August is 12,674 - November at 10,060 = 2614 overstaffed. Thanks. so on the surface it appears their plans are for more capacity than DL in 4Q. To me that feels like too much capacity. ...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aviation sector unpaid leaves and layoffs thread
Replies: 1149
Views: 36864

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787. Okay, but I don't believe that to be the same thing as the dramatic post-CARES Act (October and onward) bid that UA and now DL has released that displaces th...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 10:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

First, show me where I said "JNB-ATL". I didn't. Regardless, second, reading the memo in context (posted above) highly suggests JNB-ATL: "With the retirement of the 777, we have made the decision to open two new bases in ATL and LAX. Enhancements to the 350 now allow it to operate ke...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

My best guess is that DL believes that freight companies will readily acquire the 77L for their peak resale price. They ran the numbers and the conclusion was to cash out now and add newer more efficient aircraft later, rather than paying to park the aircraft. Storing the fleet for years when there...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 10:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

Has any airline expressed the desire to retain what had been their standard long-haul markets pre-covid? That's a pipe dream, and should most certainly not be the expectation anywhere. DL has 26 359s and 32 339s on order, which is more than enough to cover various iterations of a long-haul network ...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

Obviously. Loads of external factors in play that will impact both destinations, namely the survival of VA and/or SA. What the memo does confirm though without a doubt is that the 359 is capable of both SYD and JNB, which had been debated in this thread. Wait a minute here. The debate isn't if can ...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 3980
Views: 607156

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

I don't yet agree with those that quickly write off the 772As. Disregarding maintenance status for a moment, the A units perform a unique role that no other aircraft in the fleet can cover well. Sure, you could temporarily throw surplus 787s, 767s, and international 777s in place of the 772A, but th...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

Delta seemingly confirming in pilot memo that SYD and JNB will stay: Let's just say that what's written in a pilot memo isn't always exactly what will happen. There's always pacifying language. We know from real-world data that DL's A359s aren't well suited for JNB-ATL. It could imply a switch to J...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aviation sector unpaid leaves and layoffs thread
Replies: 1149
Views: 36864

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

AA has already published a September vacancy/displacement. E190-75/76-a330 pilots all being displaced. New positions CLT 737/777 and MIA 787. Okay, but I don't believe that to be the same thing as the dramatic post-CARES Act (October and onward) bid that UA and now DL has released that displaces th...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 8:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet
Replies: 763
Views: 123541

Re: DL to permanently retire entire 777 fleet

I was anticipating the -ERs not making it, but to see the -LRs gone too is tough. They are a beast, and they just finished the interior mods. Hard pill to swallow. It's a sunk cost and it's not a large factor in the decision to keep or retire, but still, what an unbelievable time we're in to see DL'...

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by MSPNWA
Thu May 14, 2020 7:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aviation sector unpaid leaves and layoffs thread
Replies: 1149
Views: 36864

Re: DL Will Have 7,000 Extra Pilots in Fall

It's hard to process how bad this news is. My thoughts are with the junior ranks. This is going to be a rough time. Again, not sure what AA is doing. They should be cutting the most. Looks like UA/DL is trying pretty hard here to avoid chapter 11. I find this funny. As of yesterday, DL had announced...

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by MSPNWA
Wed May 13, 2020 4:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DOT warns airlines (again) over timely customer refunds
Replies: 23
Views: 3811

Re: DOT warns airlines (again) over timely customer refunds

Until they start fining airlines, their words are hollow. Time for the DOT to take action, not give consumers false hope. The disgusting behavior they've allowed and enabled is now on their hands. They are just as guilty as the airlines stealing the consumer's money. Ultimately I think what this sho...

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by MSPNWA
Sun May 10, 2020 5:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 3980
Views: 607156

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

This looks like the end for the 764s and PW757s. In an email I got earlier today. "Currently, we’ve parked 450 mainline aircraft and 300 United Express aircraft across 23 locations. Some of those planes were already slated for retirement, including our B767-400 and B757 PS fleets." Intere...

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by MSPNWA
Fri May 01, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United announces Q1 2020 Results
Replies: 26
Views: 4799

Re: United announces Q1 2020 Results

How is it that Delta lost $534 million in Q1 and United lost $1.7bn and AA $2.2bn. Are they that better run? Other posters have already mentioned the two largest factors (UA's write-downs and historically 1Q being stronger for DL). But another factor, albeit a smaller one, is that many DL employees...

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by MSPNWA
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer
Replies: 1171
Views: 149034

Re: Updated: Boeing Terminates Agreement to Establish Joint Ventures with Embraer

We'll see what the lawyers say, but now is not the time to spend billions on a company worth a fraction of that. Boeing is very fortunate that coronavirus hit before the deal was completed. Airbus wasn't so fortunate with their CSeries anchor. Coronavirus will reward the manufacturer that can shrink...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 58126

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

You assign too much blame to the FAA. That blame should be on the politicians who chose to listen to Boeing’s lobbyists, who reduced the FAA’s role to virtual rubber-stamping, and handed the powers of self-certification to Boeing. On top of this, you have Boeing who lobbied against extra training r...

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II
Replies: 1993
Views: 338608

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Imagine if the A380 program wasn't ended recently. If wouldn't have survived anyway this covid-19 crisis. However, being already history, it is one less pain. Once again Airbus is lucky, being caught by the crisis in the best possible configuration. Boeing on the other hand ... not only the Max fia...

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

I would assume that you do not run a company, if you assume that liabilities do not way as heavy as debt. Better watch out when it rains . . . Don't make poor assumptions . . . or call the kettle black. Your passion is only good for kicks and giggles. Should anyone care if a successful corporation ...

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by MSPNWA
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 3980
Views: 607156

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

N14219 came out rocking the new Star Alliance EvoBlue livery. Looks quite good. https://i.postimg.cc/LJgwspR5/20200317-150514.jpg Ironically with the new scheme once again incorporating blue engines, the *A livery is almost the same as it was with the Rising Blue. Glad to see that it wasn't repaint...

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by MSPNWA
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:15 am
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: Corona virus Bailout Bill (US)
Replies: 145
Views: 8210

Re: Corona virus Bailout Bill

They can ask for relief once they've exhausted all private market solutions and it's a last resort before bankruptcy. Not a minute before. And even then I wouldn't promise help. The public doesn't need to immediately bailout an industry that has had an unprecedented run of success carried by the bac...

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by MSPNWA
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Pre-Max Boeing had very little debt. Share repurchases came from excess cash flow. Debt was only about $14B which is nothing for what Boeings revenues and profits were. :checkmark: Their debt load pre-grounding was only about a year of free cash flow (Boeing has other substantial future retiree lia...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64423

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Trust me I am extremely aware of the variability of airline costs. You are confusing short term variability with long term variability. Short term they can't get rid of aircraft, they have to pay the crew 100% inside the crew bid, and they only really save inflight food, landing fees, and fuel. As ...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II
Replies: 1993
Views: 338608

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

This is gut wrenching. I'm thinking about my family and friends in the industry. With the stunning news from Delta, I hope those there keep their jobs. I think bookings come back far quicker than after 9/11. For months, even years thereafter, people were terrified about the prospect of a terrorist t...

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II
Replies: 1993
Views: 338608

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I predict that US airlines will now be grounded by early next week....probably for 2-3 weeks.


I agree. And with how fast this is escalating it could be even quicker than that.

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64423

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Let's just run the math for folks... United said April revenue is expected to be down 70%. We can assume March is probably down 25% also based on comments at the JP Morgan conference. Let's run through AA's numbers...based on 2Q 2019. Revenue for the quarter: $12B ($4B per month), profits were $1.1...

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020
Replies: 3980
Views: 607156

Re: United Fleet, Network, & Livery Thread - 2020

ryanflyer wrote:
Just got a notification that there’s a United 757 headed to Tupelo tomorrow. They’ve only received the Legacy United birds that are in the C28Y144 config. Anyone know the tail?


UA2711 EWR-TUP is showing as N510UA on FR24. Just shy of its 30th birthday.

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing in Crisis

Actually, I think the 737 MAX cancellations we've seen since 1/1/20 are just the beginning: between COVID-19 (weak airlines going under) and the (still) uncertainly as to when the 737 MAX will get back in the air, there will be more cancellations. There will be more cancellations and deferrals of e...

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by MSPNWA
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again
Replies: 310
Views: 64423

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Sam Chui needs to stick to taking pictures. Looking at just one debt figure and making a conclusion shows a lack of financial understanding. It's reckless, but sadly common. It helps paint the false narrative about AA.

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing’s new CEO confronts its challenges
Replies: 70
Views: 10364

Re: Boeing’s new CEO confronts its challenges

Massively hypocritical to continue to throw the former CEO under the bus when he was part of the team that oversaw the CEO.

Further evidence in my view that DM should still be the CEO instead.

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020
Replies: 463
Views: 73965

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

Well, Boeing was in facto also the regulator.... They are no way, shape, or form the regulator. They may be given some responsibility by the regulator, but they are not the regulator with ultimate authority. Ask yourself this: how much of the FAA oversight was delegated to Boeing? Doesn't matter. W...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020
Replies: 463
Views: 73965

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

BS. The manufacturer sets the bar. Boeing didn't mention MCAS to the pilots, joked about requests of some silly 3rd world customers about simulator training and didn't tell the FAA that MCAS didn't work exactly as they were told before..... Set the bar. :shakehead: The only way for your statement t...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: DL retired MD-80/90s quickly
Replies: 1195
Views: 261707

Re: DL retiring MD-80s quickly

I'd take that rumor with a grain of salt. Per DL's regional/pilot/scope clause, if they remove 100-seat jets then they also lose 76-seat jets as part of that agreement. I highly doubt that DL's going to be removing CR9s and E75s anytime soon. But the A220 is now in the mix. Depends on the precise s...

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by MSPNWA
Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:02 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020
Replies: 463
Views: 73965

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, March 2020

It says a lot about Boeing and FAA. The context you deleted was "we also have to remember that Boeing designed and pushed through certification in a way to minimize any additional training" which is true. Boeing deceived the FAA. How do we know this? We have its employees sending emails s...

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