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by morrisond
Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 943
Views: 133518

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

But I believe the MTOW will be a lot lower than people are assuming the more I think about it. That is because you have the crazy idea that the 797 will be really small and that the 737 replacement will use the same 7ab cross section. “Even if it sneaks a little bit north of 50,000 thrust, we would...

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by morrisond
Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 943
Views: 133518

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

For the 797 I assume Boeing will take 18 inch seat cushions, 1.5 inch armrests and 19 inch aisles, to avoid the wide spread, persistent comfort discusions like on 787 & 777 10 abreast. Boeing & the airlines are stuck there with little options but to educate / deflect / confuse / fool passen...

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by morrisond
Mon Jul 15, 2019 12:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 943
Views: 133518

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

You actually just proved my argument. 8ab on the 797 replicates the A330 that killed the 7ab 767. I don't think I did. The 767 is a tight 8 across and comfortable 7-across and as such is a genuine widebody. The 797 will need to be a lot smaller IMO to get even remotely close to being as cheap as a ...

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by morrisond
Sun Jul 14, 2019 2:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 943
Views: 133518

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

RJMAZ - Great post - but the 797-7 will not be within 10% of the seating of the 788. I remember a quote from a Boeing exec a few years back (I can't find it anymore) that the Bigger NMA will be A321 plus a Row. I think we are looking more at 125-130T MTOW for the NMA to be competitive. I still think...

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by morrisond
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus product range 2028
Replies: 62
Views: 6952

Re: Airbus product range 2028

I think a lot better path for Airbus would be to do a cleansheet Ovalish 7W fuselage to replace both A320 and A330 series with two different wings/wingboxes/gear/tails/engines (smaller less capable ones for A320 replacement around 3,000NM in range and bigger more capable ones for A330 replacement wi...

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by morrisond
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Interesting to read half this thread arguing the -9 is too big and the other half arguing it should be bigger. Maybe that means it's the right size after all? It could be - it probably just means they should never do 778 and just make an 779F and wind down the 748F. They can use the 748 factory spa...

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by morrisond
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Good post RJMAZ - the only Caveat the more I think about it though is my previous thought that the 8 never sees the light of day and that effort/funds are put into stretching the -9 into an -10 as long as possible - call it 85M. Although it would hurt it on range - it's economics up to 6,000nm woul...

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by morrisond
Sun Jul 07, 2019 7:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be. Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777. So, what is their new strategy? 50-75 777-10 100-150 777-9 50-100 A359/A351 Boeing isn't going to built a 777-10 just for EK, A380 and 77W are not going to vanish s...

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by morrisond
Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

A lot of time goes by that does not mean that such carrier will change strategy. Except Emirates clearly is changing its strategy. :roll: ... Okay, it seems everybody but me here knows what Emirates' strategy is or will be. Today they operate about 111 A380 and about 137 777. So, what is their new ...

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by morrisond
Sun Jul 07, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Good post RJMAZ - the only Caveat the more I think about it though is my previous thought that the 8 never sees the light of day and that effort/funds are put into stretching the -9 into an -10 as long as possible - call it 85M. Although it would hurt it on range - it's economics up to 6,000nm would...

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by morrisond
Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could the 787 be scaled to create the 797?
Replies: 52
Views: 9187

Re: Could the 787 be scaled to create the 797?

NMA is effectively a shrunk 787 (not the same barrel though) - using the technology from 787. They have been working on it for years and there are currently over 1,000 Engineers on it. That is why Boeing is saying EIS 2025 - although that seems pretty tough right now 2026/2027 is probably more likel...

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by morrisond
Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Saying the 777X is an older design (certainly with regards to fuselage) is an entirely factual and uncontroversial statement. Four inches wider with sculpted side walls, a new window belt with bigger windows, new lighting, higher pressurisation for lower cabin altitude, higher humidity, lower noise...

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by morrisond
Wed Jul 03, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 286
Views: 56681

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

I think Boeing's future strategy is quite simple NSA/NMA done as a two wing/wingbox/gear/tail combined program using a tight light 7W fuselage - smallest size 200 seats all Y 31" pitch 3,000NM - largest size 5,000nm up to 300 seats all Y 31" pitch and then Boeing Brazil uses the same tech/...

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by morrisond
Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I don't think pushing the 777 past 80 M will be as hard as people think. I would guess if they go this route they drop the 8 and the 10 is as simple a stretch as possible - and it seems like they have thought about it. So it would come a few years later - right when EK starts retiring a lot of A380'...

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by morrisond
Thu Jun 27, 2019 8:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

For what it's worth (Boeing's word) - CNBC just reported a source told them Boeing expects to have the fix done and submitted in September.

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by morrisond
Wed Jun 26, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137289

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

Interesting point, it makes me remember the good old days when the MAX discussion was centered around stuff like: https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/441/original/HJJL.PNG?1537419200 The barbs being thrown back then were just as mean but not as serious. Hopefully 77x testing con...

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by morrisond
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

Can we all agree that "widebody with narrowbody economics" cannot exist? Unless we are comparing different generation aircraft. Absolutely agree with this. The NMA, if launched, will be the next generation of aircraft. I have no doubt that it's basic press release claim will hold up on th...

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by morrisond
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

The rotation angle would become an issue for sure, no? Service entry for the 9 looks like 2021 now, so any 10X will be several years down the line after that I guess. I would guess if they go this route they drop the 8 and the 10 is as simple a stretch as possible - and it seems like they have thou...

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by morrisond
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

Yeah - which on A321 floor area equates to 240 seats single class! So if you've floor area for 270 seats single class in 6AB, your probably looking at something like 132 seats first class (@39") and 72 seats economy (@32") to make it add up to 200 seats total. If you've floor area for 270...

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by morrisond
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

If you knew your Boeing history you would know that NSA back in 2011 was supposedly an Oval twin aisle in 2x3x2 Wise up. They are never releasing something Ryanair would carry 200 people in at 7AB. Wise up - An Ovalish 7W has no real cross section penalty (and up to an 25% advantage for Premium sea...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I predict if Boeing brings NMA in 2020 and start delivering 2026/27, Airbus will launch the A320 replacement in 2023 with delivery in 2030. Just that the new Airbus narrowbody will be 320/321/322 sized instead of 319/320/321. The lower end will be covered by 220-500. Thats why Boeing has such a har...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I'm referring to A321 vs 77W or 787-900 you do realize NSA = New single aisle, right? how do you get 50% more premium seats? The latest single aisle J seat for single aisle basically takes up the real estate of one row of 3 Y seats. How is NMA's premium seating getting more efficient than that? Ple...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

BTW - If Boeing is able to stretch the 777X to 85M and 360T MTOW - what kind of range could they get out of it? Similar to 781 I assume? Over time it could inch up over 7,000NM. Interesting that an 8.2M stretch is about 320" or up to 10 more rows/100PAX all in Y assuming you don't need more bat...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

Have you actually seen the latest 1x1 in single aisle? You can squeeze in one full lie flat with direct aisle access for what's equivalent to around 33 inch in pitch. Which means you can squeeze in j seat that's as good as you'd find in a tightly packed 77W for basically 3 Y seats. I've taken the 6...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Excluding hot/high, it just might. Lightsaber A throttle push on the GE9X might be all that is needed to solve the Hot/Problem - if there is that much reserve left in the GE9X. That seems like a big Gap between the certified thrust of 105K and the test engine getting to 134K. Pushing it to 110 or 1...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far. A 360T MTOW on the -9 assuming it comes in better then expected on Performance may give the -9 enough range to negate the need for the -8. Excluding hot/high, it just might. Lightsabe...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I predict if Boeing brings NMA in 2020 and start delivering 2026/27, Airbus will launch the A320 replacement in 2023 with delivery in 2030. Just that the new Airbus narrowbody will be 320/321/322 sized instead of 319/320/321. The lower end will be covered by 220-500. Thats why Boeing has such a har...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

There is no evidence that passengers will pay more for a tight 7 across config vs 18 inch wide 6 across config. And overhead bins have gotten really nice in the latest A320/737 models. There is no reason they can't continue to improve. You have to think of things like Premium seating - In a tight 7...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

You are assuming that the NMA is done as a standalone program from NSA. If it's as I'm speculating on the previous page and NMA is basically just an ER Version of NSA with different Wing/Wingbox/Gear/Tail/ Engines then the production lines won't be designed for 14 per month. It's conceivable that N...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

The trouble for NMA is:- NMA will be bigger than the A321XLR and therefore inherently more expensive - if we're taling about a 70t OEW/140t MTOW plane, it will be about 40% more expensive on a like-for-like basis (assuming no production method changes). But the kicker is that the A321XLR will come ...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

Res the 797 costing more: I think that airlines will look at cost per seat. We are looking at a 2019 plane designed to be cheap to build and economic to operate. And this versus a plane designed in the mid 1980s. Passengers will look at cost per flight versus comfort, there likely could be a $10-20...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

The trouble for NMA is:- NMA will be bigger than the A321XLR and therefore inherently more expensive - if we're taling about a 70t OEW/140t MTOW plane, it will be about 40% more expensive on a like-for-like basis (assuming no production method changes). But the kicker is that the A321XLR will come ...

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

Chaostheory wrote:
Boeing offered the -10 to us in 2017. An overall length of 80m and a 360t mtow. We considered it a stretch too far.


A 360T MTOW on the -9 assuming it comes in better then expected on Performance may give the -9 enough range to negate the need for the -8.

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by morrisond
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates renegotiating 777X order
Replies: 545
Views: 90359

Re: Emirates renegotiating 777X order

I came see 777-10 loading here with the higher thrust https://twitter.com/StratAero/status/1140930577715138560?s=19 Sent from my SM-J415F using Tapatalk Only ek would want such a plane. Boeing probably would not make it. Surely range would suffer? But maybe the 150 on order could be deferred and ma...

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by morrisond
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I think People are still thinking the NMA is a lot bigger than it actually will be. I think it will be a 7W Ovalish (Half a big Circle on top of 1/3 of a bigger circle) cross section where the Nose/Cross Section is reused on NSA - something like an 160-165W" x 185-190"H Cross section. I r...

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by morrisond
Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War
Replies: 292
Views: 33800

Re: Bloomberg:Airbus Says It Must Slash A350 Costs to Win Wide-Body Price War

I thought the A 380 was already through the books, but I'm not sure. Which plane do you refer to? Yes, Airbus took a $523M write off when they announced the A380 shut down, and Boeing could do a similar thing many many years in the future. Given that Boeing is still making 737, 747 and 767 I think ...

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by morrisond
Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321LR Versus XLR
Replies: 93
Views: 14715

Re: A321LR Versus XLR

It seems the XLR is, apart from more range, implementing improvements valuable for any A321. To make money on the capabilities, Airbus will probably create paper versions for different MTOW's again. A lower MTOW / engine requirements improves time on wing / MRO costs if you never fly them longer th...

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by morrisond
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137289

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

What is the typical time from first Taxi test to First flight? A day or two — but not this time. The GE engine issue is a longevity thing — one would think they could complete a lot of the non-engine related testing to shorten EIS delay. Strange??? If it's longevity would that hold them back from a...

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by morrisond
Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019
Replies: 498
Views: 137289

Re: Boeing 777X Testing Thread - 2019

What is the typical time from first Taxi test to First flight?

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by morrisond
Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR
Replies: 409
Views: 45322

Re: Business Risk for Boeing: The A321XLR

I think People are still thinking the NMA is a lot bigger than it actually will be. I think it will be a 7W Ovalish (Half a big Circle on top of 1/3 of a bigger circle) cross section where the Nose/Cross Section is reused on NSA - something like an 160-165W" x 185-190"H Cross section. I re...

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by morrisond
Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/boeing-s-mea-culpa-wins-over-operator-of-crashed-ethiopian-jet One wonders what Boeing have said to Ethiopian such that they are BFFs again suddenly? Ray I'm sure a promise of a few bags of cash on the next order might have helped....not that those...

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by morrisond
Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Or the calls for better training (not me but people made them) after the Colgan crash or the Asiana SFO crash. All related to poor training and all saveable with proper training. We almost shouldn't have had any fatal's in the last 10 years if training was doing what it was supposed too. Quite fran...

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by morrisond
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Yeah, and it's easier to turn than in a real aircraft in some circumstances. If anything that article suggests the potential issue between sim and real is less than had been speculated. It also says the SIM was harder in some situations than real life. So what is everyone's point? How would that ha...

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by morrisond
Sat Jun 15, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Did anyone you ever have a need to write lots of posts calling for better pilot training around the world for pilots UNTIL Max crashed ? Be honest ? Remind us again of the Airbus A330 design issues in the Air France fatal crash. Or the calls for better training (not me but people made them) after t...

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by morrisond
Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-14/boeing-updates-older-737-simulators-in-wake-of-fatal-max-crashes Confirmed NG simulator did not accurately reflect manual trim wheel forces. Ray Yeah, and it's easier to turn than in a real aircraft in some circumstances. If anything that article s...

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by morrisond
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mid March it was flying at the end of May. Mid June it is end of August. Kind of a rolling two month out. Not much new information right? How much more pilot training will be required. Seems like the answer to that question is part of the critical path. Until some answers come out on the fix, it is...

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by morrisond
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

you find it dozens of dozens times explained here in the thread its all about the size of the engines they don't fit under the wings because the wings have less clearance below the wings than other planes like the bus 320 and others B extended the landing gear once to fit the larger engines on the ...

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by morrisond
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:38 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Very well said on both counts. It's the planes that are grounded. Not airlines or pilots. And it's certainly not just a software glitch. That simple paragraph sums up the current situation perfectly. No - Boeing really screwed up - the software was totally not robust enough - it was not as though t...

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by morrisond
Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

it's unclear whether the NG could be certified under the version of the FARs that mandates the current force gradient. 767s for the .mil have the mcas as well. Yes, would the NG need MCAS if it were certified today? Since MCAS was designed to meet a force gradient spec., what is the force gradient ...

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by morrisond
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 382637

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Can anyone confirm when MCAS was implemented. I got the idea the light control forces were noticed during flight testing. This is a bit late in the day. It leaves only one option. A software fix. Any structural or aero fix would have taken years to do. As for the higher mounted engine causing more ...

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