Search found 8136 matches

by RayChuang
Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 737574

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

I have this increasing feeling that Boeing is approaching the point of seriously scrapping the 737 MAX program altogether. This means scrapping circa 600 airframes, and the cost would be so daunting that Boeing may be forced into bankruptcy just to protect itself from potential lawsuits from the lik...

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by RayChuang
Sat Nov 16, 2019 6:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed
Replies: 116
Views: 17308

Re: Rumor: New version of A330F being proposed

A 767-4F freighter is a very likely possibility, if the likes of Amazon is willing to foot much of the development costs. Given that Amazon Prime Air is scrounging up as many 767-300F's as possible, getting a 767-4F would be a natural.

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by RayChuang
Sun May 26, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 410450

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

I am beginning to think that the FAA, EASA and CAAC (China) may not be satisfied with Bosing's MCAS fix for the 737 MAX and there is a small, but not completely zero, chance that the 737 MAX may face a permanent grounding. If that happens, Boeing may have to file for bankruptcy to defray the costs o...

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by RayChuang
Sun May 26, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 287439

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

I still back my contention that the SYD to LHR and JFK non-stop routes are highly niche operations that cater to a relatively small number of passengers. After all, with the current one stop between SYD and LHR, you can fly CX, EK and SQ now (and take advantage of the excellent lounges at HKG, DXB a...

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by RayChuang
Sun May 26, 2019 7:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 777 Production/Delivery Thread 2019
Replies: 247
Views: 75456

Re: Boeing 777 Production/Delivery Thread 2019

Speaking of the 777, any news on when will the first 777-9 prototype start engine and eventually taxi tests?

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by RayChuang
Sun May 26, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 287439

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

Look, I think right now the likely winner will be a higher MTOW version of the 777-8, but seating on the plane will be limited to 240-250 passengers in Premium Economy and Business class seating only. With good reason: with such extremely long flights, deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) becomes a major issu...

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by RayChuang
Sun May 19, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 287439

Re: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft

I think in the end, QF will likely choose the 777-8 (778). With good reason: due to the quite niche nature of the SYD-LHR nonstop route, to minimize issues with deep-vein thrombosis (DVT), the plane will only be equipped with Premium Economy (around 39" seating pitch) and Business class seating...

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by RayChuang
Thu May 09, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Goodbye BAC 1-11!
Replies: 121
Views: 21608

Re: Goodbye BAC 1-11!

Speaking of the BAC 1-11, were there any attempts to consider using the Rolls-Royce Tay engine on that plane?

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by RayChuang
Thu May 09, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits
Replies: 136
Views: 29084

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

I think EK will have a much smaller A388 fleet (about 50 planes at most), and much of the long-range flying will shift to the 777X models. I wouldn't be surprised that some of the EK routes to the USA eventually switches to the 777-9 once that becomes available in quantity.

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by RayChuang
Sun May 05, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dr. Peters begins scrapping of two ex-SIA A380s
Replies: 287
Views: 93448

Re: Dr. Peters begins scrapping of two ex-SIA A380s

I expect the earliest delivered EK A388's to reach the dismantling stage by the early 2020's. Just how many more SQ A388's will be scrapped early?

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by RayChuang
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q1 2019
Replies: 6476
Views: 743613

Re: Should airline regulators consider grounding B737 MAX series

I think the fact Boeing hasn't resolved the problem with a software upgrade tells me Boeing needs to stop all 737 MAX operations and have a plane subject to testing by NASA's Ames Research Center and Armstrong Flight Research Center to find out what could be really wrong. Is is possible there may be...

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by RayChuang
Sun Mar 10, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi Q1 2019
Replies: 5479
Views: 741234

Re: Ethiopian Airlines 737MAX crashes enroute to Nairobi

Until we recover the black boxes, it's impossible to determine what happened currently, except for two things: 1) what was the maintenance records of the plane and 2) what was the weather conditions?

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by RayChuang
Sat Mar 02, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options
Replies: 254
Views: 49011

Re: British Airways commits to ordering 18 777-9 plus an additional 24 options

I personally believe one reason why BA has kept the 744 so long is specifically for the route between LHR and JFK. Is it possible that this busy route will be switched to a mix of A388 and 77W (A388 only on the flights with the most demand)?

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by RayChuang
Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas
Replies: 1891
Views: 434501

Re: Atlas Air 3591 Down in Trinity Bay, Texas

I think we'll need to look at the black box data first before starting to guess what really happened.

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by RayChuang
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:23 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?
Replies: 143
Views: 22172

Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

alancostello wrote:
BA kicked the tires when they came up for sale the first time and didn't like the condition or the price.


However, I wouldn't be surprised if BA takes the MH A380's now, especially since they could negotiate with Airbus on offsetting the refurbishment cost.

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by RayChuang
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Are Shared Ownership Private Jets Hurting 1st Class Airline Sales?
Replies: 70
Views: 9215

Re: Are Shared Ownership Private Jets Hurting 1st Class Airline Sales?

I think a lot of big company CEO's now have their own bizjets so they can travel to other destinations on a short-turnaround basis. Disney CEO Robert Iger travels exclusively on private jets as part of company policy.

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by RayChuang
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B787-10 future prospects?
Replies: 219
Views: 28245

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

I see the 787-10 as a replacement for the older A330 models for ranges up to 5,800 nautical miles. Perfect for transatlantic flying from the eastern half of the continental USA and throughout eastern Asia.

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by RayChuang
Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Non-Aviation
Topic: 100 years ago, the Great War ended
Replies: 25
Views: 2093

Re: 100 years ago, the Great War ended

Many predicted that war was coming to Europe anyway, especially with the increasing competition for foreign colonies. The saddest legacy was that the generals of World War I tried to fight using 19th Century tactics, something that had horrible results given the use of machine guns and poison gas on...

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by RayChuang
Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aer lingus A350's
Replies: 28
Views: 9586

Re: Aer lingus A350's

I wonder has EI ordered the A330-900neo, since it now has the range to reach the US West Coast from DUB?

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by RayChuang
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangkal Pinang
Replies: 3187
Views: 610081

Re: Lion Air 737MAX8 Crashed Jakarta to Pangal Pinang

We're going to have to recover the "black boxes" and also look at weather conditions, too. The Java Sea is notorious for violent thunderstorms, and how the Lion Air flight crew reacted to possible thunderstorm conditions may have something to do with the crash.

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by RayChuang
Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: MC-21 Development Thread
Replies: 503
Views: 143924

Re: MC-21 Development Thread

I wonder will the Russians not really market the MC-21 until the Aviadvigatel PD-14 engine is certified?

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by RayChuang
Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon
Replies: 248
Views: 61898

Re: Rumour: British Airways - Big Aircraft Order soon

I still wonder has Boeing talked about a lower-weight version of the 777-8 (with a range of around 7,700 nautical miles) that would be of interest to BA? I think a lot of airlines don't need the capacity of the 777-9 but like a 777-8 with 7,700 nautical mile range.

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by RayChuang
Sat Aug 25, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Qantas saying it is almost ready to select Project Sunrise aircraft
Replies: 1494
Views: 287439

Re: Airbus and Boeing meet Qantas Project Sunrise challenge, RFP to be completed by end of 2019

I think due to deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) issues, QF may end up ordering a 778 with slightly higher MTOW to accommodate more fuel and seating limited to 240 passengers in roomier Economy and Business class seating for their Project Sunrise jet. It will have the range to fly between SYD and LHR non-s...

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by RayChuang
Fri Aug 24, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated
Replies: 129
Views: 20940

Re: Death of 747-400 Greatly Exaggerated

I do think the 747-400 is rapidly disappearing, and BA may be among the last to fly them. The BA 744's will likely be replaced by a mix of 77W, A35K, 78J and A388 aircraft.

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by RayChuang
Mon Aug 20, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SFO to Europe
Replies: 26
Views: 6776

Re: SFO to Europe

My guess is that the first truly regular SFO to Europe nonstop flights didn't happen until the late 1970's, when BA used the 747-200's equipped with the Rolls-Royce RB.211-524 engines.

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by RayChuang
Sat Aug 18, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 60 years ago today, Pan Am received its first 707
Replies: 107
Views: 12223

Re: 60 years ago today, Pan Am received its first 707

If I remember correctly, the early 707's also had a shorter vertical tail, which can sometimes cause a "Dutch roll" problem. That's why when the 707-420 with the Rolls-Royce Conway engines were being certified for BOAC, Boeing designed a taller vertical tall, a change that was eventually r...

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by RayChuang
Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3491
Views: 437879

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

In the end, the 797 will look like a reduced-size 787, a double-aisle airliner that will have a range of between 4,100 to 5,300 nautical miles and seating of 220 to 270 passengers depending on fuselage length. The engines will likely be a scaled-up version of the CFM International LEAP or a scaled-u...

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by RayChuang
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is A220 still a regional jet?
Replies: 108
Views: 14667

Re: Is A220 still a regional jet?

No I do not consider the A220 (CSeries) as a true regional jet. A true regional jet normally has less than 100 seats, and even the A220-100 (CS100) can seat over 100 in normal seating configuration. It will likely fill a niche of longer, "thin" routes of up to 2,700 nautical miles.

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by RayChuang
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?
Replies: 291
Views: 43454

Re: Leeham: VLA era is over; are 779/A35K too large?

Personally, the A350XWB-900 actually stands a chance to be pretty successful because many airlines need to replace their aging 777-200ER fleets. I don't expect the 777-8/9 and A350XWB-1000 to be really selling until the 2020's, when the last of the 747-400's are retired and the 777-300ER replacement...

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by RayChuang
Sat Jun 30, 2018 1:16 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing has given the 3 Major Engine Manufacturers until June 27 to submit their 797 engine proposals
Replies: 313
Views: 47936

Re: Boeing has given the 3 Major Engine Manufacturers until June 27 to submit their 797 engine proposals

I think Boeing is looking at GE Aviation providing a scaled up LEAP engine (in cooperation with Safran) or a scaled-down GENx engine. More likely a scaled-up LEAP engine with a larger front fan, rated between 38,000 and 43,000 lb. of thrust, the same range as the PW2000 series engines.

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by RayChuang
Sun Jun 10, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: IAG and the A350
Replies: 49
Views: 10345

Re: IAG and the A350

I would not be surprised that BA is trying to get better pricing for the A350XWB-1000 by threatening to get the 777-9. BA may want the A350K--possibly another 25-30 planes--to replace the 747-400 completely.

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by RayChuang
Sun May 06, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: British Airways in talks to order Boeing Widebodies
Replies: 170
Views: 35524

Re: British Airways in talks to order Boeing Widebodies

My guess is that BA is preparing to buy a big 779 order--somewhere between 35 and 50 planes. That will allow BA to completely phase out the well-maintained, but long in the tooth, 744 fleet.

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by RayChuang
Sun Apr 22, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ‘Sad ending’ for 2 DL 747's in the desert
Replies: 37
Views: 12871

Re: ‘Sad ending’ for 2 DL 747's in the desert

I think we forget those Delta 744's are ex-NW 744's, among the very first 744's off the Boeing production line at PAE. As such, they are being retired anyway given they are over 25 years old.

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by RayChuang
Sun Apr 08, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Will Delta’s A330neo be a TATL or TPAC plane?
Replies: 15
Views: 3813

Re: Will Delta’s A330neo be a TATL or TPAC plane?

Transatlantic for sure, but is the range of A330-900neo (6,550 nautical miles) enough for most transpacific flying from LAX and SEA?

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by RayChuang
Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A321 delivery problems force HA flight cancellations
Replies: 65
Views: 9848

Re: Trouble in Paradise: HA cancels A321 flights due to PW engine problems

If I remember correctly, Pratt & Whitney had a horrible time with the early JT9D engines--the only engines available for the 747 for a couple of years. Small wonder why Boeing more than happily accepted the offer for the GE CF6-50 and Rolls-Royce RB.211-524 engines for the 747-200 models. I thin...

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by RayChuang
Sun Feb 18, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aseman Airlines plane crash in Iran
Replies: 55
Views: 14722

Re: Aseman Airlines plane crash in Iran

Given the bad weather and mountainous terrain, it will be interesting to see what the "black boxes" reveal from the last moments of the flight.

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by RayChuang
Sun Jan 21, 2018 2:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why doesn't US have more holiday leisure airlines?
Replies: 255
Views: 21633

Re: Why doesn't US have more holiday leisure airlines?

litz, many also forget that if you overlay the Continental 48 states of the USA with Europe, note that the USA covers most of western and eastern Europe, including the European part of Russia! As such, what is normal for transportation in Europe doesn't work so well in the USA--hence the growth of t...

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by RayChuang
Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Why doesn't US have more holiday leisure airlines?
Replies: 255
Views: 21633

Re: Why doesn't US have more holiday leisure airlines?

Actually, here in the USA, there ARE package tours--but they almost exclusively use current air carriers (the legacies like AA, DL and UA) and newer LCC's like B6 and WN. For example, from Sacramento, CA I could book a full vacation to Disney World including air travel, but in almost all cases the a...

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by RayChuang
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s
Replies: 561
Views: 104238

Re: Airbus Is in Talks With British Airways on More A380s

I would not be surprised that Airbus is trying to talk BA into buying more A380's--my guess as many as 20 planes. Why? Because of the continuing congestion situation at London area airports and to replace all the 747-400's that BA now has earlier.

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by RayChuang
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators
Replies: 73
Views: 13877

Re: Upcoming Boeing 777X operators

Do not expect a rush of 777-8 and 777-9 orders until after 2020, when the 777-300ER replacement cycle begins. I think Airbus is thinking that way also, hence the emphasis on A350XWB-900 sales first.

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by RayChuang
Sun Jan 07, 2018 2:40 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: DL's final 744 in its final resting place today
Replies: 42
Views: 11466

Re: DL's final 744 in its final resting place today

I think in the end, the 747-400 served one purpose very well from 1989 to around 2000: it opened up much longer international flights than before. And NW--before it merged with DL--was among first customers to buy the 744 because it could fly to eastern Asia non-stop from JFK and MSP. And so did SQ,...

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by RayChuang
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
Replies: 695
Views: 89759

Re: Reuters:Airbus ready to phase out A380 if fails to win Emirates deal

Personally, I think in the longer term, EK may be looking a big 777-9 order to eventually replace the A380, especially if they can get Boeing to develop a higher MTOW version with a range around 8,000 nautical miles.

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by RayChuang
Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Aerolineas Argentinas mulls A340 replacement, to suspend Barcelona
Replies: 85
Views: 14960

Re: Aerolineas Argentinas mulls A340 replacement, to suspend Barcelona

I would not be surprised that AR seriously looks at the 787-9. It's certainly got the range and just the right capacity to fly from EZE to most of Europe easily. They could consider the A350XWB-900, but that may be too much seating capacity for what the airline wants.

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by RayChuang
Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: How could BA continue a prestigious London-New York experience?
Replies: 125
Views: 20686

Re: How could BA continue a prestigious London-New York experience?

I think one possibility is that the "younger" 777-200ER's could be extensively refurbished into planes with mostly--if not all--First and Club World seating specifically for the LHR-JFK flights. And they will offer extra amenities like free (First) and very low cost (Club World) limousine ...

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by RayChuang
Sun Dec 17, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Airlines Hints At Fleet Upgrades If The Tax Bill Passes
Replies: 42
Views: 6648

Re: Southwest Airlines Hints At Fleet Upgrades If The Tax Bill Passes

I wouldn't be surprised with the new tax law, WN may start retiring their oldest 73G's and replace them with more 737 MAX 7's.

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by RayChuang
Sat Dec 16, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is AA going to cancel their A350 order?
Replies: 160
Views: 40784

Re: Is AA going to cancel their A350 order?

I think right now, AA is in a different situation than UA, who needs to start replacing their 777 fleet starting very soon (since UA has some of the oldest operational 777's in the world). I wouldn't be surprised that AA won't replace their 772ER's until after 2020 with the A350XWB-900, the time tha...

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by RayChuang
Sat Dec 16, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta orders 100 P&W powered A321neo aircraft, plus 100 options
Replies: 377
Views: 86611

Re: Delta orders 100 P&W powered A321neo aircraft, plus 100 options

In sum total, DL buying 100 A321neo's comes to one very plausible reason: replace the aging 752 fleet. We'll see it on many transcon flights from ATL, for starters.

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by RayChuang
Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Dubai Air Show 2017 - Boeing Orders
Replies: 188
Views: 68049

Re: Dubai Air Show 2017 - Boeing Orders

I think the EK 787-10's will operate primarily on regional routes out of DXB. Don't expect to see it flying to Europe, though.

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by RayChuang
Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?
Replies: 61
Views: 13234

Re: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?

A reason why I say 779 sales will be surprisingly strong is that it has the passenger capacity of the 744 (but with more cargo capacity) and nearly the same range as the current 77W. As such, many airlines will buy it in lieu of the A380 because of its low operating cost for such carrying capacity (...

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by RayChuang
Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:15 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?
Replies: 61
Views: 13234

Re: Is the 777-9 in any of the USA Big 3's Future?

Personally, I don't think we'll see that many 779 orders until after 2020, when the 77W replacement cycle starts. I do expect UA to seriously consider buying the 779 after 2020, especially for its transpacific operations out of SFO.

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