Search found 562 matches

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by brindabella
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

Thank you for the great post At this moment, actually Boeing is still unsure if their NMA will be a 757 or 767 based. As for me I believed that NMA should be based on the 757... If Boeing decides that their NMA will be based on the 757, it will be the base for their new 737 or NSA too.... Boeing kn...

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by brindabella
Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could the 787 be scaled to create the 797?
Replies: 52
Views: 9214

Re: Could the 787 be scaled to create the 797?

The 767 Section 41 cockpit was used on the 777. IIRC the "adaptor" section to increase the cockpit diameter to meet up with the larger fuselage section was quite a design challenge, so Boeing had to use a smaller portion of the 767's Section 41. This is why the 777 has such a distinctive ...

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by brindabella
Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could the 787 be scaled to create the 797?
Replies: 52
Views: 9214

Re: Could the 787 be scaled to create the 797?

Rather than scale 787, just make a 787-8 V2 for MoM. Redesign structure for 200T MTOW, using lessons learned from 1st gen 787 structure, new 5000lb MoM engines, center wing box tank deletion, done! 7 across is rather inefficient use of space anyways Smaller end of MoM space can be covered by NSA Th...

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by brindabella
Sat Jul 06, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019
Replies: 833
Views: 120043

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

Look, all opinions have to be read, but this is one that needs to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. The glory days of limited aircraft manufacturing competition is long over. The technology is mature, and the difference between success and failure is razor thin. Manufacturers needs to be lean. ...

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by brindabella
Mon May 27, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019
Replies: 3768
Views: 383157

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

According to dictionary.com (and this surprised me because I've never really thought about it), there are two definitions for the word "continuous" which are below: Therefore, MCAS runaway can be defined as uncommanded stabilzer trim movement that occurs continuously. In all cases of runa...

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by brindabella
Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 737 Who Has Just Two AOA Probes?
Replies: 29
Views: 5338

Re: 737 Who Has Just Two AOA Probes?

What I don't understand is why the Runaway Stabiliser checklist wasn't actioned as would be standard practice on just about every Boeing I've flown if this situation presented itself. I would suggest two reasons, first is the speed trim system on the 737 which automatically adds trim, the aircraft ...

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by brindabella
Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: 737 Who Has Just Two AOA Probes?
Replies: 29
Views: 5338

Re: 737 Who Has Just Two AOA Probes?

What I don't understand is why the Runaway Stabiliser checklist wasn't actioned as would be standard practice on just about every Boeing I've flown if this situation presented itself. I would suggest two reasons, first is the speed trim system on the 737 which automatically adds trim, the aircraft ...

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by brindabella
Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus
Replies: 351
Views: 54215

Re: LH orders 20 B789 and 20 additional A350; Will sell 6 A380s back to Airbus

Was there some sort of press release by either Boeing or LH stating they firmed the last 14? If not there's no news. LH always had 34 779s in their fleet overview in the financial reports but only 20 in Boeing's order book. According to a previous post, Spohr mentioned "34" in the press c...

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by brindabella
Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Southwest Could Add 500 Aircraft to it's Fleet
Replies: 115
Views: 21153

Re: Southwest Could Add 500 Aircraft to it's Fleet

500 737-700s up for replacement. SW seems also bowing out of -7 now https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-02/southwest-moves-up-40-max-737-8-orders-delays-23-max-7-planes A more recent article doesn’t make it seem like WN is “bowing out” of the -7. Funny, but not surprising that you choos...

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by brindabella
Fri Mar 08, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer
Replies: 212
Views: 34693

Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Why would Boeing allow a company which hurt them be a launch customer. There are much better airlines for that role. because Boeing is in the business of making money and not holding grade school grudges. All true, but one can envisage something like the following conversation: BA: " We believ...

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by brindabella
Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

:checkmark: The 797 enjoys a 40 years technology advantage over the existing single aisle competition, it should be not depending on the container size to beat the competition with ease. You forget, that it needs to be competitive against same-tech-level narrowbodies, that will arrive a few years la...

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by brindabella
Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer
Replies: 212
Views: 34693

Re: Delta Wants to be NMA Launch Customer

Orders for what? Airbus doesn't have a 763-sized aircraft. I guess DL and UA can order A321NEO and LR, but that's not what they want and I think if they did want it, they would have ordered it. They want a sort of new plane. The 797 is it, but apparently Boeing doesn’t think there is a market. The ...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread 2019
Replies: 214
Views: 37941

Re: KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread 2019

Question. Isn't the current KC-30 remotely operated? We do not hear issues about that system. Perhaps they work the same, it's just that the Air Force was expecting more from the KC-46 version. bt Just don't fly DIRECTLY away from the Sun whereby it will be beaming straight at the sensors( !). Mayb...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread 2019
Replies: 214
Views: 37941

Re: KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread 2019

A Boom Pod with a window is a much simplier arrangement and more reliable than being in a electronic closet. A window relies on the old Mk.-1 eyeball to work properly, an electronic closet filled with computers, sensors, and video game type controls can break down. Yes, I know these systems will ha...

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by brindabella
Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

The A350 sold a lot, entered service and has struggled since sales wise. We can ascribe whatever reason we want for it but the longer sales stay low the less reasons like backlog and replacement cycles hold up. The 77W replacement cycle thing I think is oversold around here. The biggest 77W operato...

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by brindabella
Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

2. Of course they will. I don't think Boeing or anyone else expects that Airbus won't sell plenty of aircraft at the bottom of the MoM segment. But as long as it's based on the A321, the bottom of the segment is always where it's going to be, and without a clean sheet redesign at best it will merel...

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by brindabella
Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

“Wide body at narrow body costs” Begs the question of which narrow body? And what is meant by costs? And the fundamental advantage that a narrow body has could only be overcome if the technology that is applied to allow this aircraft to achieve these claims can be uniquely applied to a wide body. B...

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by brindabella
Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

“Wide body at narrow body costs” Begs the question of which narrow body? And what is meant by costs? There is two possible "cost". Operating and purchasing. Operating cost for the most part relates to fuel burn which in part relates to frame weight. If one estimate that a composite frame ...

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by brindabella
Thu Feb 21, 2019 12:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57060

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

Uninformed speculation on your part that failure to assemble a group of launch customers is the reason for delay in the launch decision. I can imagine a few other reasons, in what I see as decreasing order of likelihood: 1) difficulty in nailing down a production process that will get Boeing the co...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57060

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

During a period of unseen backlogs and airline profits, Boeing was not able to assemble a group of launching customers to launch a MoM. They talked with all airlines and were expected to launch in 2017, 18, 19 and now 2020. The market responds is what it is. Uninformed speculation on your part that...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?
Replies: 287
Views: 57060

Re: Boeing 737 replacement, back on the table in summer 2019?

If Boeing extracts more value from the current and future supply chains, it sets the bar higher for launching a new model (the same argument if both OEM's get equal access to new engine technology). While any number of possible customers have expressed an interest, what has not been disclosed is th...

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by brindabella
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update Thread 2019
Replies: 187
Views: 25140

Re: A400M Update Thread 2019

Airbus has lost $billions, continues to do so, and is asking for another round of give backs by the customers. They're not asking for another round. The negotiations are complete, the result is awaiting parliamentary approval. Semantics. I guess the give backs are automatic, just like forgiving A38...

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by brindabella
Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go Next
Replies: 46
Views: 8087

Re: Boeing Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go Next

All very reasonable. :checkmark: At a guess the OEMs will move to re-engine the 787 and A350 in roughly the same timeframe. So they'll each retain a lead in their respective sweet spots. An ultra version of the 35K is going to make life more difficult for the 777X but, like the 380, it will presumab...

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by brindabella
Sun Feb 17, 2019 4:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next
Replies: 42
Views: 5941

Re: Airbus Lineup Circa 2025 - Where do they go next

With the Cancellation of the A380 and development essentially completed on all their models - where does Airbus go next? ... The benefit to this is then Airbus has three modern Cross Sections (5W,7W,9W) that they can use to build almost any number/size of derivatives. ... At some point COMAC could ...

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by brindabella
Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:52 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: A380 Biggest manufacturing loss in civil aviation to date?
Replies: 127
Views: 14157

Re: A380 Biggest manufacturing loss in civil aviation ?

I'm not sure why this is considered a sad thing. Minus the costs involved in shutting down production, they're all sunk costs. With this move, Airbus can utilize those resources for something else more lucrative and the company and its shareholders will be better off for it. Unfortunately, it can a...

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by brindabella
Fri Feb 15, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: A380 Biggest manufacturing loss in civil aviation to date?
Replies: 127
Views: 14157

Re: A380 Biggest manufacturing loss in civil aviation ?

The 787 was a mistake? Didn’t mean to imply that, not even close, I think the 787 will eventually be a profitable program for Boeing The 787 development cost is at least $15 billion and then there is the deferred production cost of around $30 billion. By that standard the 787 program has made even ...

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by brindabella
Fri Feb 15, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104660

Re: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021

They can’t waive RLI repayment. Those loans are made on commercial terms. I expect they can if the Lender (the governments of the UK, Germany and France) forgive the loan, which it appears they intend to do. The loan repayment is apparently conditional to the A380 launch being successful. Apparentl...

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by brindabella
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.
Replies: 214
Views: 34287

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

I think we can be certain that RR will be supplying some VERY cheap engines ... but the fact that EK is the party to announce the actual cancellation may not mean too much, IMO. I dont understand why this is certain, it was my understanding that EK put in the additional order for 20+16 that was con...

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by brindabella
Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.
Replies: 214
Views: 34287

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

EK announced the cancellation at the conclusion of what must have been some torrid 3-way battles between EK, AB & RR. A380 leasors will also have been involved. A soft landing for them, will see a 2-3 year extension on all but the earliest deliveries, in return for an EOL discount. How many Air...

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by brindabella
Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:49 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.
Replies: 214
Views: 34287

Re: Confirmed: EK cancels 380's, orders 330neo and 350.

Projected delivery timings for these frames would be something to watch, DXB is crowded as it is and DWC has faced many delays, I don't see the bulk of them getting delivered until well into the 2020s. Given EK's past actions, it would be a serious test of how firm these orders actually are. There ...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 880
Views: 137960

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

This is indeed what many people don't understand. If Airbus ends the A380 production, EK's business model will fall apart eventually from a marketing point of view but also from a political point of view. No more A380's means no additional slots in the EU, even if they order A350's. If not EK, some...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 880
Views: 137960

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

There is no forecast, plan, roadmap, scenario or possibility that makes the 380 profitable...ever. The only question is; how much loss is acceptable before the line is shuttered? As it stands, Airbus loses money on every aircraft it makes. Even if every current order and option was built...Airbus w...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104660

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

The big question is what will come next for Airbus. I can not see them going into the future with just the A320 + A350. Maybe, maybe not. But the strategy of A320+A350+A220(?) might well be a huge winner. I can see AB becoming seriously, majorly profitable. Then the opportunities will open up as if...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104660

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

I still think without the A380 the 747-8 does have some future passenger orders. There are still airlines that have a use for a large plane like that. Boeing probably couldn't build more than a handful of passenger 747-8s from their spares stock even if an airline did want them (which they do not) ...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 13, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104660

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

Perhaps for bragging rights, yes. But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they have to contend with afterwards. Precisely. :yes: Will give Airbus much greater freedom and op...

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by brindabella
Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 747-8 Currently Cash Positive?
Replies: 163
Views: 20274

Re: 747-8 Currently Cash Positive?

??? Today, each frame is profitable. Sunk costs are sunk costs. At some point, the overall program will break even, but even if it didn't, the prudent manufacturer would continue to sell a profitable (monopoly) product. (I can't parse the grammar of your last sentence, but I think I understand your...

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by brindabella
Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Official: Airbus announces A380 production to end in 2021
Replies: 870
Views: 104660

Re: [Rumor] Airbus to announce end of A380 production

They will make Boeing's day when they will officially announce the end of the production line. Perhaps for bragging rights, yes. But deep down, I think Boeing would have been happy with Airbus being preoccupied with such a money pit that has been a drag on its resources. One has to wonder what they...

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by brindabella
Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1045
Views: 144517

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

So 797 is not a 321 / 322 competitor. It is a B788 / B789 / A338 / A339 competitor and killer. Considering that it will have one generation more efficient engines I suppose that Airbus will soon make their move and replace A330. It wouldn't kill B787 or A330neo. The size different and the range cap...

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by brindabella
Fri Feb 08, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ethiopian terrible teen Boeing 787 stored/grounded
Replies: 47
Views: 15702

Re: Ethiopian terrible teen Boeing 787 stored/grounded

Eh. LN 10 was part of a build block that went from LN 7 through LN 19. All of those frames (Ethiopian received 10, 12, 13, 14, 16, 18) have similar weight and maintenance issues. Each is ~6 t overweight and all of them are limited to 220 t MTOW (which is why they were a good fit for ET, which is ta...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 880
Views: 137960

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

I don't understand why EK seems to be zigzagging so much concerning their fleet. Why all this back and forth and now even like a different strategy for way more midsized planes? Do they have a plan like they used to have? Have they come under political pressure by their government? It doesn't feel ...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 06, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A330/A350 confirmed, Boeing 787 for 777-9 still possible
Replies: 880
Views: 137960

Re: Emirates considering order changes - Airbus A380 for A350, Boeing 787 for 777-9

Killing A380 will probably push Airbus for a A350-1100NEO around 2025. with Emirates will then sit as the major customer for B779. with. A350-1100 neo will there be a market for 779 outside emirates? :checkmark: BA should have done the CFRP fuse on the 777X. No matter how long, it will eventually b...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: RR: 'Perfect Storm'?
Replies: 37
Views: 7153

Re: RR: 'Perfect Storm'?

Were past decisions at RR to go WB only, and also outsource the supply chain and production their downfall? RR really needed a successful NB engine family of their own, on the A32x, A220 and even the 737, to pay for the current balls up. If everything was still based at Derby and Bristol, this woul...

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Updated: Airbus announcing A321XLR
Replies: 399
Views: 68863

Re: Flightglobal: Airbus A321XLR would have over 100t MTOW, range of 4700 nm

First flight of the 764ER was in October 1999, so a standard 20 year patent won't last beyond next year. Unless Boeing didn't patent it till after first flight then it's null and void... Fred You can not patent something that has been out there for somebody to see. So if not patented before the fir...

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by brindabella
Mon Feb 04, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says
Replies: 254
Views: 41680

Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

3) the E2 series has only just emerged at a time when Enders is openly putting the entire AB weight behind the C-series; the E2 family promises to be very impressive; and it seems to me it will give the C-series a very hard time when the backing of BA is also available to properly balance the scale...

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by brindabella
Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says
Replies: 254
Views: 41680

Re: Airbus A220 Developments : more of a match for A320neo than Airbus says

Boeing's decisions are as subjective, and as prone to being poor as anyone else's.. I agree - they made some poor ones - and thus lost the CF-18 replacement and handed Airbus a gift. Granted, that's in hindsight... then again, the people making the decisions are supposed to be professionals, and we...

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by brindabella
Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN to lease 12 new 738MAX
Replies: 47
Views: 8437

Re: WN to lease 12 new 738MAX

Finnair made a lot of money from the sale-lease back of their early A350s purchased at A350mk1-> A350XWB conversion prices. I have always wondered about those deals and how they were converted as AB continually changed + upgraded the (contracted) product. Finally of course the transition was comple...

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by brindabella
Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: WN to lease 12 new 738MAX
Replies: 47
Views: 8437

Re: WN to lease 12 new 738MAX

Finnair made a lot of money from the sale-lease back of their early A350s purchased at A350mk1-> A350XWB conversion prices. I have always wondered about those deals and how they were converted as AB continually changed + upgraded the (contracted) product. Finally of course the transition was comple...

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by brindabella
Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B777-9 future prospects?
Replies: 350
Views: 52364

Re: B777-9 future prospects?

All fair points but a few of these were close cousins to freighters. No question the 764 and 748( I have said on other threads that the 748 is the worst call ever. The 380 is the most expensive but the 8 was the worst as they could see that the 380 was a dud by the time the 8 was launched) were dud...

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by brindabella
Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO
Replies: 172
Views: 19918

Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

Currently all trade US to the EU is in accordance with WTO rules, efforts to have a US to EU trade agreements went nowhere because it takes 28 countries to agree fully, which never happens. The UK encountered the same thing in the Brexit negotiations, can't get an agreement other than the UK should...

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by brindabella
Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO
Replies: 172
Views: 19918

Re: Airbus strategy review augurs clean break under new CEO

I think most of this is posturing. International trade agreements happen all of the time. Every commercial aircraft gets parts from globally located sources. Airbus can't afford a significant production disruption, and it doesn't make a lot of sense to create a second wing factory...UNLESS...they w...

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