Search found 619 matches

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by brindabella
Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747
Replies: 327
Views: 49109

Re: ​Internal tussle as Boeing weighs future of 747

While engine maintenance is expensive, fuel bills dwarf the sum of all engine costs. I wasn't arguing that there is a future for quads. But in the case of the A345/6 engine maintenance costs are THE main factor why that type is less successful than the A343 (which on many sectors is as fuel efficie...

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by brindabella
Fri Jun 19, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Feasibility of a 737-900ER freighter
Replies: 35
Views: 6267

Re: Feasibility of a 737-900ER freighter

Thanks to everyone that has replied so far. It sounds like my guess that feed-stock could be an issue with such a high % of frames locked up in the fleets of a few operators has largely been corroborated. I also very much appreciate the technical comments about runway consumption and possible addit...

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by brindabella
Tue Jun 16, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 56242

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020

I thought EASA always wanted a third sensor, but was willing to accept a synthetic sensor. Without a 3rd senior how do you handle a AOA mis-compare? One answer was to turn off MCAS with a miscompare. Boeing says that is generally safe. Which leads the Canadians to ask can we test fly it w/o MCAS, a...

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by brindabella
Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Future KC-10 replacement options?
Replies: 98
Views: 7431

Re: Future KC-10 replacement options?

I am a Lockheed employee and sometimes a Boeing cheerleader but the way I see it, I think we could use a slice of that pie along with Airbus with the A330 tanker. The military is not a jobs distribution program. Going more strictly on-subject, the KC-46 renders redundant the capabilities of both th...

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by brindabella
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus threatens to sue airlines
Replies: 104
Views: 20140

Re: Airbus threatens to sue airlines

Law prefers consistency, choosing to not enforce contract requirements for one does set precedent for another to sue to get out of that contract requirement, so it is much better to enforce the contract. If the current contract is unenforceable it is time to sit down to negotiate a contract change ...

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by brindabella
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus threatens to sue airlines
Replies: 104
Views: 20140

Re: Airbus threatens to sue airlines

We will see how enforceable are the relevant purchase contracts in what legal jurisdictions. This could be good - but probably not quick. That's part of why I think the airlines are angry. They realize legal remedies take a long time to develop, so they're not happy to take reputation damage by bei...

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by brindabella
Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus threatens to sue airlines
Replies: 104
Views: 20140

Re: Airbus threatens to sue airlines

Law prefers consistency, choosing to not enforce contract requirements for one does set precedent for another to sue to get out of that contract requirement, so it is much better to enforce the contract. If the current contract is unenforceable it is time to sit down to negotiate a contract change ...

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by brindabella
Sun May 24, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

If only the A380 had been: - Designed to be about 25% bigger than the 744, not the 30 some % bigger. 25% is a big step, normally 20% between models. - Arriving a few years later such that the RR 700's could have been T7000's. A big improvement in efficiency. - Designed for the -800 with no -900 inc...

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by brindabella
Sat May 23, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

I still am very puzzled by the VLA stuff. How is it possible so many clever people made such a mistake in the past? Whatever you say to "defend" the A380 case, the reality is what it is today. It is being abandoned. This reality was predicted by some people since the very beginning many y...

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by brindabella
Fri May 22, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Air France A380 retirement/parking thread
Replies: 483
Views: 60349

Re: Air France to retire A380 fleet effective immediately

It's easy to claim this looking back. I would not agree. Even today. We see big city growth to continue. We see Asia developing. We see India just beginning. There IS a need for big airplanes and there will be this need. The only problem the A380 had was that twins with some newer more efficient en...

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by brindabella
Thu May 21, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense. It doesn't seem to make sense to complete airframes that there is next to no likelihood of ever selling. You are going to be paying a lot of money to get them ...

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by brindabella
Thu May 21, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Any two available engines would do to ferry the plane and ship engines back. I am guessing it is a cheaper option than hanging new engines to all five frames. I think you need a matched set of four RRs to move these birds. Getting those engines back to "home base" is yet another expense. ...

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by brindabella
Mon May 18, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"
Replies: 135
Views: 30954

Re: Sir Tim Clark "A380 is OVER"

2 years from now do we know which airlines still plan to have the 380 in their fleet? Emirates and who else? SQ and QF already had cabin refresh programs in place when COVID-19 hit, so I think they are the most likely. NH i believe Good point! Gotta keep the gigantic turtles flying! :D However I wo...

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by brindabella
Mon May 18, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet
Replies: 348
Views: 69770

Re: Rumour: Emirates to decommission 40% of A380 fleet

Which airports spent billions to get A380s? He meant collectively, but of course you knew that. Airports around the world made terminal, jetway, ramp, taxiway and runway improvements in order to accommodate the A380. And it’s been in service for 13 years and will be for longer, despite current circ...

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by brindabella
Sat May 02, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: EK's possible future?
Replies: 153
Views: 27244

Re: EK's possible future?

I see EK as the Pan Am of my time. They are the airline everybody looks up to and compares itself to. The 747 was Pan Am's icon, as is the A380 for Emirates. But just as Pan Am, EK seems to have made the same mistake about their fleet. Emirates isn't Pan Am. Pan Am was a big, private owned airline ...

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by brindabella
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:27 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"
Replies: 190
Views: 31154

Re: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"

Looking at narrow bodies, it is still difficult to assess what Airbus' production rate needs to be given that the MAX is still grounded. If total demand for factory brand new narrow bodies is 400 in 2020, most of that will have to be fulfilled by Airbus. Those who want 737s will have to settle for ...

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by brindabella
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"
Replies: 190
Views: 31154

Re: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"

Looking at narrow bodies, it is still difficult to assess what Airbus' production rate needs to be given that the MAX is still grounded. If total demand for factory brand new narrow bodies is 400 in 2020, most of that will have to be fulfilled by Airbus. Those who want 737s will have to settle for ...

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by brindabella
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"
Replies: 190
Views: 31154

Re: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"

So the 10 year A320 backlog is softer than I thought. Indeed Richard Aboulafia has been saying for some time that both the massive backlogs owned by AB and BA are little better than mirages. (my words). He surely has seen the boom-bust cycles before, so it seemed to me that he was probably (sadly) ...

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by brindabella
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"
Replies: 190
Views: 31154

Re: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash at an unprecedented speed, which may threaten the very existence of our company,”

Everyone knows that Airbus (and Boeing) won't be able to survive a total reset of the industry without taking some drastic measures. Virtually all the world's airlines have no capability to accept deliveries of new aircraft from the OEMs as they have no income. The leasing companies will find the g...

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by brindabella
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash; may threaten existence of company"
Replies: 190
Views: 31154

Re: Airbus CEO: "“We’re bleeding cash at an unprecedented speed, which may threaten the very existence of our company,”

Some of us said this in earlier threads..Boeing had already shut down the MAX lines and bled out. Airbus now has to do the same. Incredibly, the benefit to Boeing may turn out to be the year-long period they had the “benefit” of where Airbus will be forced to shut down multiple lines in 4-5 countri...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X
Replies: 161
Views: 26325

Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

For a customer like CX, I would expect the manufacturer to offer very similar levels of discount across their entire portfolio. Even if we assume 50% discount off list prices, that would leave a 787-10 at $169 million vs 777-9 at $221 million. Assuming a one-for-one conversion of the 21 frames, tha...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X
Replies: 161
Views: 26325

Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

Why not 789 It is good replacement of mid-long haul a330 I don't really see a place for the 789 since its not that far off the A359 in size, and mid-long haul A330s have been increasingly replaced by the A350 (both 900 and 1000) within CX anyway. See the replacement of 33K aircraft in Australia ^^ ...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X
Replies: 161
Views: 26325

Re: Cathay Pacific eyes Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner as swap for 777X

With oil prices in the cellar, it makes sense to keep the 77W's flying longer, after all the metal is owned. It makes very good financial sense for CX to swap models, or more likely defer their 779's out far to the right, basically returning them to options but still allowing Boeing to count the or...

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by brindabella
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Boeing KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 253
Views: 27712

Re: Boeing KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread - 2020

Looks like they agreed to a fix with version 1.5. From what I can gleen, the release of the money also included money for items in version 1.5 that would have been rolled into version 2.0 which were planned for a later date. https://www.janes.com/article/95339/covid-19-us-air-force-boeing-reach-dea...

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by brindabella
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63103

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

I think someone stated above what it could possibly be. You trade in lease for 717, get MoU on 737 as "part of replacement". Everyone seem to be happy. DL: gets rid of 717 which are not much needed now (during corona virus), and they gain a couple of years to see how the market will shape...

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by brindabella
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max
Replies: 365
Views: 63103

Re: Rumor: DL looking to trade 717s for 737 Max

Delta is essentially asking Boeing to forgo cash flow when it needs it the most - for an order down the road. And ask yourself, who in the world right now would take the 717's? Not sure Boeing is in a position to bend over for Delta. For Delta's perspective, as usual, it only helps them. They find ...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 56242

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

Boeing is working on restarting commercial aircraft production by the end of next week: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/business/boeing-restart-production-coronavirus.html Mad fools! don't they know that Boeing is doomed? Just look at the Boeing-haters on this forum who have predicting just that...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q2 2020
Replies: 607
Views: 56242

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/boeing-customers-cancel-staggering-number-of-737-max-orders.html If cancellations go on at this rate over the next few months it doesn't look good for Boeing. They may have to take a really hard look at the MAX then. Long long way to go IMO; and much to play for (as ...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41103

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

In the end, like you said, I am not even sure the market wants in huge numbers frame as large as the 77W in the future, even to replace it. Which doesn't bode well for A35K either, it's claimed superiority doesn't matter if airlines simply don't want planes that big. Project Sunrise is kind of a ho...

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by brindabella
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order
Replies: 225
Views: 41103

Re: Rumor: CX to walk away from 777X order

For it to have a future air travel needs to get to a higher level than today, thats going to need people to have jobs and money, I cant see air travel returning to 2019 level for a decade. Also Boeing commercial needs to survive and have the x hundred million to certify the aircraft. A decade for a...

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by brindabella
Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Boeing KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 253
Views: 27712

Re: Boeing KC-46 Production and Delivery Thread - 2020

Not sure I agree with releasing the funds... it also sends the wrong message about paying money for a fix that Boeing is completely responsible for. Agreed mate, but in this climate Boeing needs the cash so if they use the money they were supposed to receive (800-ish million) to fix their product, ...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus considering significant A320 rate reduction cut
Replies: 106
Views: 12066

Re: Airbus considering significant A320 rate reduction cut

Can the Boeing/Airbus leaders not look out their windows and see all of the planes sitting on the tarmacs? I understand they have employees (and stockholders) to take care of, but why build a plane just to have it sit? They need to make a decision so that their supply chains know what to do. Right ...

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by brindabella
Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus considering significant A320 rate reduction cut
Replies: 106
Views: 12066

Re: Airbus considering significant A320 rate reduction cut

In the next couple of weeks means maybe in three weeks. I guess they want to see first if growth in Corona cases continues exponential (widespread immunity soon) or flattens (long term fear). I don't think they should cut production. Which airline wouldn't prefer A320 over B737Max, assuming it retu...

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by brindabella
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11154

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

There is no financial incentive for Airbus to allow easy switch to A339. Parts for the last 8 A380 have already been built (or the airframe already completed, not sure where A380 production is currently at). If EK cancels then Airbus is stuck with white tails and/or useless large parts for unpopula...

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by brindabella
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:26 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11154

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

Many cogent observers over many years have identified that it is IMPOSSIBLE for interest-rates/inflation to rise. You clearly don't live in Europe (or better in an Euro area country). The whole goal of the ECB is to increase intrest rates, it's a necessity for Europe. It looks fine for Airbus such ...

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by brindabella
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11154

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

I think you'll be highly disappointed. This crisis is not just a health crisis, it will turn into a recession. Travel is not the number one priority if you have bills to pay. Or do you really think that most people will not have negative income effects? If so, I wonder on what you base this assumpt...

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by brindabella
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11154

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

Not magically. There is so much at stake and it's everybody's interest to get things back. We will see a huge rebound because of the current budget policies are all aiming for that. It's more a when than a if. There will be a first wave of travelers who need to fly to meet their families etc. Then ...

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by brindabella
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11154

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

You are dreaming if you think Airlines won't use this as opportunity to adjust order books and renegotiate prices. With oil prices where they are it wrecks the calculus on how much more a NEO is worth vs buying a used CEO from a defunct airline. I'll be stunned if production isn't severely curtaile...

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by brindabella
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11154

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

Mjoelnir who do you think they "owe" deferred production costs too? You've absolutely no idea how to read a balance sheet. Mjoelnir who do you think they "owe" deferred production costs to? He never listens and never answers this. Many great posts but sheesh ... :banghead: cheers

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by brindabella
Wed Feb 05, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order
Replies: 197
Views: 30826

Re: Ryanair submits offer to Boeing on new 737MAX order

Boeing will end up with some cancelled and delayed orders anyway. Ryanair might be wanting and taking airplanes faster than others. So why not sell them to FR and reward the flexibility with some rebate? It's in Boeing's interest to keep the flow steady even with hickups on the demand curve now. Ge...

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by brindabella
Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."
Replies: 82
Views: 18010

Re: Dr Peters: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."

It does not take a genius to see that any business case for the A380 has been questionable for many years now. After market values will only get worse as even more frames such as ones by EK are let go. I predict the B77X case to balloon in the years to come Maybe ... can't help but think that the A...

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by brindabella
Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Article: "Onward demand for the A380 is almost non-existent."
Replies: 82
Views: 18010

Re: Dr Peters:

I do wonder what price would make B.A go for them. Willie Walsh said earlier in 2019 he could see a need for 18 in the fleet (currently they have 12), but also seen mentioned in articles up to 10 extra (over the current 12). Best options would probably be LH or SQ who maintain them in top condition...

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by brindabella
Wed Jan 22, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: US, Boeing Commercial Aircraft Strategy Retaking Leadership 2020-2030 ?
Replies: 65
Views: 6354

Re: US, Boeing Commercial Aircraft Strategy Retaking Leadership 2020-2030 ?

A topic that is hard to answer in a neutral way, but the main part is that the future is in Boeing´s hands. They have all options on the table and only they decide the direction they are taking, there is no overwhelming finiancial pressure that pushes them into one direction. Well, yes. But clearly...

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by brindabella
Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended
Replies: 5670
Views: 737484

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q4 2019, Production suspended

Also from the Times article: In August, regulators from Europe, Canada and Brazil flew to Seattle and joined F.A.A. officials for a meeting with Boeing. They were expecting to review reams of documentation describing the software update for the Max. Instead, the Boeing representatives offered a bri...

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by brindabella
Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Questions about the C-5 Galaxy
Replies: 21
Views: 4090

Re: Questions about the C-5 Galaxy

No better person to have my questions answered, thank you. I always wondered about the service ceiling. Many variances of a few thousand feet. It usually seems like the bigger planes can get up into the 40k range, not all commercial airliners can hit it. I wondered as with most airliners, there's s...

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by brindabella
Mon Oct 21, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019
Replies: 1358
Views: 204185

Re: Boeing 797 Thread - 2019

As above, I think the program could launch mid 2020 and still be on track for EIS by end of 2025. Based on recent projects like 737MAX, A320NEO, A350, 787 and 777X I think 2027 Type Certification could be possible if they have a launch in a few months. Scaling down, back porting, transfering techno...

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by brindabella
Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 FSA as 737 replacement gaining ground.
Replies: 73
Views: 23013

Re: Boeing 797 FSA as 737 replacement gaining ground.

Right up until the A320NEO launched, Boeing were adamant that all their customers wanted NSA, and that it would be in service by 2018 (which back in 2010 was a feasibility). They never said anything about the NSA being in service by 2018. If that was the case, ALL of the potential customers would h...

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by brindabella
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019
Replies: 4380
Views: 661331

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q3 2019

if the FAA laid out any sort of timeline, they'd be accused of a flawed process. This is right. FAA can not set any sort of timeline even internally. The flawed process accusations that FAA needs to mind come from internally from all FAA employees as well as from other regulatory bodies around the ...

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by brindabella
Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?
Replies: 131
Views: 18943

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Please add Alan Mulally to the good guy list in 1), besides for leading the 777 program, the commercial airplane division up until 2005, but saw the writing on the wall when McCowering came in. Alan went to Ford where he got things together sufficient that Ford survived 2008 when both GM and Chrysl...

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by brindabella
Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?
Replies: 131
Views: 18943

Re: What is Boeing’s overall commercial game plan?

Nothing is being done? 777 Engine issues have literally happened to every recent plane type introduction. 737s are grounded, not permanently. What market realities are they insulated from? What about Boeing’s massively successful non commercial segment? Let me try to address some of the questions f...

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