Search found 9391 matches

by mjoelnir
Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus corporate shuttle to BFM?
Replies: 35
Views: 5272

Re: Airbus corporate shuttle to BFM?

In the transport industry in the US, I can't think of too many companies that have major sales or R&D functions co-located with the plants. For companies like Airbus BFM with no historical ties to the plant location, Nissan, which has both manufactring and lots of non-engineering office functio...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus corporate shuttle to BFM?
Replies: 35
Views: 5272

Re: Airbus corporate shuttle to BFM?

Those are examples why we don't see (many) corporate shuttles today. Lots of people are missing the reference to a PLANT shuttle. (Posts by TTailedTiger and Cubsrule catch this.) On-call aircraft for execs? Sure. Shuttles to major customer sites? Yes, I knew of a non-Detroit-based auto parts manufa...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus corporate shuttle to BFM?
Replies: 35
Views: 5272

Re: Airbus corporate shuttle to BFM?

Regarding a shuttle I am sure that there is no shuttle between Airbus in Europe and Airbus in BFM. But there are some statements here in regards to the Airbus presens in Mobile or Brookley Aeroplex that are not correct. The oldest Airbus site is Airbus Americas Engineering, operating since 2007, tha...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Oct 14, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders
Replies: 303
Views: 72801

Re: Airbus and Boeing 2020 Orders

Only another 1,100 cancellations to go! Only 3 cancellations last month. It seems Boeing is holding on well as Max gets ready for entry into service. I expect no big cancellations from now on. A backlog that represents more than four years of normal production is not very useful. The current crisis...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020
Replies: 716
Views: 113763

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, Q3 2020

Reuters says that Boeing is approaching many carriers, especially DL, to sell away MAX whitetails. The report states that they are talking for 40 airframes, unknown variants (most likely Max 8). https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing-737max-delta/boeing-courting-delta-others-to-take-737-max-white-t...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BER News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 477
Views: 82362

Re: BER News and Discussion Thread

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/flug ... 87300.html
-->

Today there is a meeting of the board of Berlin airports about closing TXL in June and perhaps finally..

in German
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/flug ... 87300.html

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by mjoelnir
Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Icelandair reiterates interest in potential Airbus order
Replies: 79
Views: 18911

Re: Icelandair reiterates interest in potential Airbus order

How far could A321neo and A320neo fly from KEF? Could they fly to all the places B757 flies to right now? The A321XLR would fly longer legs than the 757-200WL, with the same load and much lower fuel burn. The whole west coast of the USA and Canada would be in range. Now a 757-200WL does not manage ...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Leeham: Pratt & Whitney committed to advanced GTF for Airbus, thrust, sfc.
Replies: 71
Views: 9501

Re: Leeham: Pratt & Whitney committed to advanced GTF for Airbus, thrust, sfc.

1. A322? If Airbus actually wants to kill the A330-800neo. 2. I don't know if the LEAP's design can allow CFM to push its thrust to 4000lbf. The LEAP was designed from the CFM56 series, with the most powerful variant with the maximum thrust of ~34000lbf. 338 is already dead :-) But to kill 797 and ...

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by mjoelnir
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Mar2019 to Mar2020 for sure. Just wondering if there will be zero need for Mar2020 to Mar2021. The question of "need" is irrelevant. Boeing has a contractual obligation to deliver. The only reason why Boeing wouldn't have to pay is when the airline defers acceptance of the aircraft themse...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:38 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

And if Net Earnings were anywhere associated with the reality of what a Company actually makes in this day and age and not a highly manipulated number then your analysis would make more sense. The market long ago (rightly or wrongly - and I would agree with you - mostly wrongly) stopped looking at ...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

You are not stating facts you are stating your personal opinions. They were cash flow positive going forward when the MAX production lines were shutdown. You have not shown anything that Boeing used funds from Suppliers or from Advances to fund there Share repurchases - you can't directly link the ...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

The Forbes article was interesting - they were projecting $22 Billion in Free Cash Flow per year so buying back $10B in stock or issuing it as a special dividend would not be considered extreme. They were not borrowing money to buy back stock unlike a lot of other US companies whose debts ballooned...

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by mjoelnir
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: BER News and Discussion Thread
Replies: 477
Views: 82362

Re: BER News and Discussion Thread

Independently from the current COVID crisis and associated delays at BER, the German air force (Flugbereitschaft) is planning to use TXL until at least 2029 for helicopter operations. So any major demolition or redevelopment of the area will have to wait until then. https://www.airliners.de/flugber...

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by mjoelnir
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:06 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Here some quotes from 2019 annual report: https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/2019/ar/2019_Boeing_Annual_Report.pdf p.38: "Financing Activities ... Net borrowings were $13.2 billion in 2019, $1.4 billion in 2018 and $1.1 billion in 2017. ... During 2019 and 2018 we repurchased ...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

It may be - but it's not all as you suggest above and one airline might have kept paying but I would have to guess that that didn't continue on forever. This article from 2016 suggests it takes Boeing just 9 days to build a 737 - I can see Airlines going above 50% at the point it enters Final assem...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

This very good article seems to suggest Pre-delivery payments are only about 15-30%. https://www.clydeco.com/insight/article/paper-planes-the-financing-of-aircraft-pre-delivery-payments-1 That may be low. That article talks about pre delivery payments compared to cross prices not real prices. quote...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

This very good article seems to suggest Pre-delivery payments are only about 15-30%. https://www.clydeco.com/insight/article/paper-planes-the-financing-of-aircraft-pre-delivery-payments-1 That may be low. That article talks about pre delivery payments compared to cross prices not real prices. quote...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

morrisond wrote:

No Progress billings were stopped at the grounding.



I heard something else from the airline I do know about.

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Next flight of fancy by you. The cash flow went positive because Boeing received those loans. You should know that taking loans produces a positive cash flow. Still not reading financial accounts and ignoring facts. In 2013 Boeing had a huge backlog of 787 that is mostly gone now. Production and re...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Next invention "cash flow positive on a go forward basis", do you now operate with imaginary or invented numbers? I wonder if Bernie Madoff is following our discussion. I don't suggest Boeing is cheating like Madoff. It's all in their books. I just mean to say Bernie Madoff handled quite ...

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by mjoelnir
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Name me one Major Economist other than David Rosenberg (A Canadian) who has been warning of a recession pre-Covid. You will most likely not find many from the Major banks or Securities firms who were doing the same - it was not most. It was very few at best. To quote myself from above "Airbus ...

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by mjoelnir
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

I don't disagree - I have said the same for years - it's just a question of how much of a cushion. Without MAX they should have been able to weather this crisis just fine. That is a big hit. If MAX had not happened Airbus may have been the only one needing a bailout if this drags on too long. Boein...

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by mjoelnir
Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

However in this case Boeing was not spending the profits they had not made yet. They invested an extra $30B in the 787 accounting block to get it going. This came from cash flow - it was not borrowed. I think you quoted Boeing as having spent $43B in the last six years or so on share buybacks - for...

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by mjoelnir
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11278

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

But the balance sheets of Airbus are radically different from Boeing. Equity: Boeing does show a negative equity of 8,3 billion USD, but to compare that to the IFRS accounting of Airbus you have to detract 25.5 billion of deferred cost, booked in inventories. (Added up deferred production and tooli...

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by mjoelnir
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

The main danger of program for cost accounting is, that it makes a company look richer than it is. It counts profits not made and assets that do not exists. When people now spend the profits not yet made, it gets dangerous. The good cash flow excuse is just an excuse for behaving irresponsibly. Sha...

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by mjoelnir
Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11278

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

A subtle but important FYP. Duly noted! You are dreaming if you think Airbus won't need a bailout like Boeing. It will take some time before Airlines need new capacity and there will be 100's/1,000's of newish NB's and WB's for sale at cents on the dollar from Bankrupt airlines if they need more ca...

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by mjoelnir
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

The main danger of program for cost accounting is, that it makes a company look richer than it is. It counts profits not made and assets that do not exists. When people now spend the profits not yet made, it gets dangerous. The good cash flow excuse is just an excuse for behaving irresponsibly. Shar...

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by mjoelnir
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:30 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Morrison's is right tho? Program accounting is appropriate for Boeing and while deferred cost matters it's not a cash cost. They've already "paid" for the program, there is a reason we look at free cash flow. If the don't hit their program numbers they've overstated their profit but it do...

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by mjoelnir
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Totally agree - but the poster above was going on and on about how worthless 787 Deferred cost as part of inventory was - and it is and everyone else but them realize this. The only good inventory right now is completed inventory that you probably don't have to shell out anymore money for. They may...

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by mjoelnir
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Cargo Discussion Thread (Cargo Operators and Passenger Airlines Operating Cargo Only Flights)
Replies: 526
Views: 69715

Re: Will airlines operate cargo only fleets again?

The airlines will not buy cargo only fleets again. There are big capable wide body frames sitting around with every major airline. Those frames are quite capable freighters. Even if the coronavirus will be around for a year, that is short term compared to the lifetime of a frame. After the coronavir...

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by mjoelnir
Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Okay - let's look at inventories. Who has more completed inventory sitting on the ground they can sell for cash assuming eventual RTS? That's not the 'advantage' it might have been a short while ago. MAX could RTS tomorrow, how many do you think they'd sell? :scratchchin: Airlines that were despera...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Very simply they have already spent that deferred cost and "Paid" for that Inventory. I has no cash cost to them to pay back that account - it is just a book keeping entry and does not impact cash flow. They show the deferred cost as profits and inventory in their books. The profits they ...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

... Deferred Cost is meaningless - they do not owe that to anyone. They have already paid that cost - when it is reducing all it does is lower reported earnings. There is no cash cost to this. There was no need to have $40B cash sitting on the balance sheet. - Maybe $20B but not $40B - and BTW I wa...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11278

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

Of course a discussion of Airbus finances is needed. Yes the equity that Airbus has about 6 billion EUR, about 5.2 % of the total liabilities and equity. Low but at least there is something. Yes Airbus has made a loss, but the gross margin is quite good. The loss is to a big part the result of the ...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:32 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

In UK law it is illegal to trade whilst insolvent. This is defined as “ A limited company becomes insolvent when it can no longer pay its bills when due, or its liabilities—including contingent liabilities such as redundancy payments—outweigh the company’s assets. ” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

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by mjoelnir
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

And exactly why does that matter now at all? It's not an asset they can sell for cash or something they have to pay back with cash. It has zero relevance. Unlike the MAX they don't have 100 complete 787's sitting around they can sell for cash -even if it would be cents on the dollar right now. No o...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

No I was talking about debt and what was on the Balance sheet pre-max. Someone said that they bought back $100B in stock by issuing debt - which was wrong. That is all I was saying. Deferred Cost is meaningless - they do not owe that to anyone. They have already paid that cost - when it is reducing...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Pre-Max Boeing had very little debt. Share repurchases came from excess cash flow. Debt was only about $14B which is nothing for what Boeings revenues and profits were. You use of course a very narrow definition of debt and of course avoid looking at liabilities and obligations. Definition of debt ...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A320neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2020
Replies: 399
Views: 56658

Re: Airbus A320neo Production/Delivery Thread - 2020

All known 10000, but 10001 for XFW, are allocated to TLS. It can still be that one or all of the other FALs will fill in the void between 9598 and 10000. the highest I find allocated to Mobile is MSN9538 the highest I find allocated to XFW is MSN9571 and the highest allocated to TSN is MSN9449 MSN95...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 107
Views: 11278

Re: Airbus Financial Discussion 2020

Of course a discussion of Airbus finances is needed. Yes the equity that Airbus has about 6 billion EUR, about 5.2 % of the total liabilities and equity. Low but at least there is something. Yes Airbus has made a loss, but the gross margin is quite good. The loss is to a big part the result of the h...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

And you have a inaccurate interpretation of debt by lumping all liabilities into the term. Low or negative equity is simply not a certain sign of a financially weak company. It only means it could use a closer look. That closer look of Boeing shows us they were in an exceptionally strong financial ...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Renationalisation of airlines being a trend.
Replies: 29
Views: 4421

Re: Renationalisation of airlines being a trend.

The USA government has already declared it will safe the USA airlines. Is that nationalisation? I would make a difference between nationalisation and helping airlines through a crisis not of their making. The difference is, who owns the airline afterwards. The usual USA way is perhaps the most hypoc...

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by mjoelnir
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:14 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Pre-Max Boeing had very little debt. Share repurchases came from excess cash flow. Debt was only about $14B which is nothing for what Boeings revenues and profits were. :checkmark: Their debt load pre-grounding was only about a year of free cash flow (Boeing has other substantial future retiree lia...

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by mjoelnir
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:51 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020

Boeing being described by Zerohedge, as clowns and monkeys. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bottom-finally-bridgewater-puts-14-billion-short Stock price has crashed from $350 to $130 in a little over a month after it announced it was fully drawing down its revolver: Boeing. S&P cut Boeing's c...

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by mjoelnir
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: SWA 737 Suffers Fuselage Crack
Replies: 52
Views: 17351

Re: SWA 737 Suffers Fuselage Crack

Is this similar to what caused Aloha 243? There are quite a few changes in the fuselage design between the jurassic and NG. Some changes between the jurassic and classic. Few 737 frames are used like the Aloha frame, in comparable environment. There are many more checks today looking for corrosion....

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by mjoelnir
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: COVID-19 Cargo Discussion Thread (Cargo Operators and Passenger Airlines Operating Cargo Only Flights)
Replies: 526
Views: 69715

Re: Will cargo airlines increase capacity to replace lost belly cargo capacity?

The fresh fish, a lot of it salmon from Northern Europe to Asia is still getting moved. A big part traveled in the belly of Finnair flights. So they are either running freighters or they fly freight without passengers. I have heard that there were flights cargo only on passenger frames. Fish is heav...

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by mjoelnir
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing in Crisis

Maybe. Not really sure about how they return money upon sell. But if they will switch to Airbus NEO, Airbus said they will not be able to cover their loss of MAX which the airline who already buy MAX as Airbus is struggling to build as much plane as that. In the actual situation no airline will ord...

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by mjoelnir
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Financial Discussion 2020
Replies: 432
Views: 60436

Re: Boeing in Crisis

airzona11 wrote:
IF chasing share price is root of all the evil of Boeing, how are the same posters explaining the near-identical share price fall of Airbus?


Because Airbus did not chase the share price. They did not spend billions on artificially propping up the share price. Simple really.

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by mjoelnir
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II
Replies: 1993
Views: 338607

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Coronavirus screening causes massive bottlenecks at O’Hare and other U.S. airports https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2020/03/14/europe-travel-ban-airport-delays/ Who thought it was a good idea, to make a new crowd event, mixing potentially corona virus bearers with others for hours. Than...

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